11
Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos November 6, 2002 112 of 122

Fomc 20021106 Material

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Fomc 20021106 Material

Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos

November 6, 2002 112 of 122

Page 2: Fomc 20021106 Material

Page 1

PercentPercent

U.S. Current Deposit Rates and RatesImplied by Traded Forward Rate Agreements

June 03, 2002 - November 04, 2002

Source: Bloomberg1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

6/3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 10/21 11/41.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6/3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 10/21 11/40.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Duration of Lehman Brothers Mortgage Index and the 10-Year Treasury YieldJune 03, 2002 - November 04, 2002 YearsPercent

Source: Lehman Brothers, Bloomberg

10-Year Treasury Yield (LHS)

S&P 500 Price and 10-Year Note Yield Changes100-Day Rolling Correlation

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

FOMCAug. 13

FOMCSept. 24

FOMCSept. 24

FOMCAug. 13Duration of Lehman Brothers

Mortgage Index (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg

LIBOR Fixing 3M Forward 6M Forward 9M Forward

WashingtonPost articleOct. 26

November 6, 2002 113 of 122

Page 3: Fomc 20021106 Material

Page 2

U.S. Investment Grade Option-Adjusted SpreadJanuary 02, 2002 - November 04, 2002

Basis Points

140160180200220240260280

Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02140160180200220240260280

Source: Lehman Brothers

550

650

750

850

950

1050

Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02550

650

750

850

950

1050Source: Merrill Lynch

U.S. High Yield Spread to 10-Year TreasuryJanuary 02, 2002 - November 04, 2002

Basis Points Basis Points Basis Points

Corporate Credit Spreads to U.S. Treasuries

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400+0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%10/25/200010/25/200110/25/2002

Basis Points Basis Points Basis Points Basis Points Basis Points

PercentPercentSource: Merrill LynchInvestment Grade Index

Percent of Investment Grade Debt Outstanding Categorized byOption-Adjusted Spread to Comparable Treasuries

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-020

100

200

300

400

500

600

700Ford (1st largest issuer)GM (3rd largest)Household Finance (6th largest)AT&T (9th largest)

Select Large Corporate Bond Issuers: 10-Year Spreads to Treasuries January 02, 2002 - November 04, 2002 Basis PointsBasis Points

Source: Lehman Brothers

November 6, 2002 114 of 122

Page 4: Fomc 20021106 Material

Page 3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-020

50

100

150

200

250

300

Index of Euro Corporate Spreads to Comparable German Government DebtJanuary 02, 2001 - November 04, 2002 Basis

PointsBasisPoints

Source: JP Morgan

AA

BBB

A

AAA

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-020

10

20

30

40

50

Monthly Euro-Denominated Investment Grade Corporate IssuanceJanuary 2001 - October 2002 USD Billions

EquivalentUSD BillionsEquivalent

Source: Morgan Stanley

Euro-Area Current Deposit Rates and RatesImplied by Traded Forward Rate Agreements

June 03, 2002 - November 04, 2002

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

6/3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 10/21 11/42.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Source: Bloomberg

Percent PercentLIBOR Fixing 3M Forward 6M Forward 9M Forward

November 6, 2002 115 of 122

Page 5: Fomc 20021106 Material

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

6/3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 10/21 11/40.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Japanese Government 10-Year Benchmark YieldJune 03, 2002 - November 05, 2002

Page 4

PercentPercent

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

6/3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 10/21 11/440

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Topix Bank Index UFJMTFG SumitomoMizuho

Japanese Bank StocksJune 03, 2002 - November 05, 2002 Index

6/3/02=100Index6/3/02=100

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

BOJ stockpurchase planSept. 18

BOJ stockpurchase planSept. 18

Cabinet reshuffleSept. 30

Cabinet reshuffleSept. 30

BOJ & FSAannouncements

Oct. 30

BOJ & FSAannouncements

Oct. 30

November 6, 2002 116 of 122

Page 6: Fomc 20021106 Material

575

600

625

650

675

2/6/2002 4/9/2002 6/10/2002 8/11/2002 10/12/2002 12/13/2002575

600

625

650

675

Permanent SOMA

Long-Term RPs

Short-Term Operations

Total Domestic Portfolio: Permanent SOMA Holdings, Long-Term RPs,and Short Term Operations (RPs less Matched Sale-Purchase Agreements)

Maintenance Period Averages, Billions of DollarsFebruary 2002 to February 2003

Level of Entire Portfolio (reflects levelof all autonomous factors plus requiredand excess Fed balances)

Actual

Forecast

Page 5

2/5/2003

November 6, 2002 117 of 122

Page 7: Fomc 20021106 Material

Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Reinhart

November 6, 2002 118 of 122

Page 8: Fomc 20021106 Material

November 6, 2002 119 of 122

Page 9: Fomc 20021106 Material

November 6, 2002 120 of 122

Page 10: Fomc 20021106 Material

November 6, 2002 121 of 122

Page 11: Fomc 20021106 Material

November 6, 2002 122 of 122