Folie 1

Mature Convection: DLR activities

presented by Caroline Forster

DLR - Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

Convection Working Group Meeting

Landshut, Germany

8-10 October 2009

Folie 2

Detection, tracking, nowcasting of convective clouds and precipitation cells

Operational for research purposes since spring 2008

Cb-TRAMMETEOSAT: combination of HRV, IR, and WV3 Cb development stagesNowcasting up to 60 minutes

Rad-TRAMDWD radar composite37 dBZ thresholdNowcasting up to 60 minutes

Folie 3

Weather Forecast User-oriented System Including Object Nowcasting

POLDIRADsurface observations

cloud trackerradar tracker

lightning

User-specifiedTarget WeatherObject

TWO

SYNPOLRADlocal forecast

ensembleforecast

SYNRAD

SYNSATobject

comparison

forecast validationforecast validation

FusionTracking Nowcast (0 -1 hrs)Forecast (1 - 6 hrs)

TWO

Integrated thunderstorm forecast system for the airports Munich

and Frankfurt (DLR project "Wetter und Fliegen")

This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167.It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 4

Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009

Cb information for pilotsCb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)

19.08.200814:05 UTC

Cb top (orange)

Cb bottom(yellow, pink)

This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167.It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 5

Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009

19.08.200814:15 UTC

Cb top (orange)

Cb bottom(yellow, pink)

Cb information for pilotsCb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)

This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167.It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 6

Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009

19.08.200814:25 UTC

Cb top (orange)

Cb bottom(yellow, pink)

Cb information for pilotsCb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)

Folie 7Vortragstitel

example: ec-TRAM nowcasting map (detail) with cell contours, tracks and prognoses of an electrically charged ‚ec-cell‘.

radar cell: Reflectivity map (blue shaded) cell track (white line), actual cell contour (white polygons), cell prognoses for 10 minutes (dark grey polygons), and 20 minutes (light grey polygons)

lightning cell: discharge events clustered for 3 minutes (green crosses) actual cell (red polygon)

ec-TRAM (Vera Meyer, PhD thesis)

tracking and monitoring of electrically charged convective cells

Folie 8Vortragstitel

Probabilistic Nowcasting (Kirstin Kober, PhD thesis)

Rad-TRAM-prob: 12.08.2007 23:15UTC

15min 30min 60min

Folie 9Vortragstitel

lightning parameterisation in the COSMO-DE model (Johannes Dahl, PhD thesis)

COSMO-DE model LINET observations

Folie 10Vortragstitel

Folie 11

Convective Initiation: DLR activities

presented by Caroline Forster

DLR - Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

Convection Working Group Meeting

Landshut, Germany

8-10 October 2009

Folie 12

Cb-TRAM using METEOSAT-9 data (combination of HRV, IR, WV)

case study 04.07.2006

yellow: onset of convection

orange: rapid development

red: mature thunderstorm

grey: 15 and 30 Min. nowcast

This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT-2005-516167.It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 13

Forster_CWG.ppt 8. - 10. October 2009

Cb initiation information for pilotsCb top from Cb-TRAM (DLR)

07.08.200813:29 UTC

Cb top (cyan, blue, orange)

Cb bottom(yellow, pink)

07.08.200813:39 UTC

Cb top (cyan, blue, orange)

Cb bottom(yellow, pink)

07.08.200813:49 UTC

Cb top (cyan, blue, orange)

Cb bottom(yellow, pink)

07.08.200813:50 UTC

Cb top (cyan, blue, orange)

Cb bottom(yellow, pink)

Folie 14

Early detection of convection through a combination of different data

sources (Dennis Stich, PhD thesis, just started on 28 September 2009)

Goal:

to examine different data sources (satellite, surface obs, model data, radiosondes ...) with regard to (typical) developments in the early initiation stage

to develop an algorithm that extends the nowcasting horizon to the early initiation stage by

combining different data sources