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FMCG August 2014

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0501001502012201220252025202013283600100004000300020002012202020122020Source: World Bank, Emami Reports, Dabur Reports, AC Nielsen, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) titled The Bird of Gold, Booz & Company, Aranca Research37110050100150201220122020CAGR: 14.7%CAGR: 13.3%Favourable demographics and rise in income level to boost FMCG marketRise in rural consumption to drive the FMCG marketTotal consumption expenditure set to increaseOverall FMCG market expected to increase at a CAGR of 14.7 per cent to USD110.4 billion during 201220The rural FMCG market expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.7 per cent to USD100 billion during 201225 The overall rural FMCG consumption continues to grow at 12.5 per cent during 2013-14Total consumption expenditure to reach nearly USD3,600 billion by 2020 from USD1,328 billion in 2012CAGR: 17.7% 10012Source: Emami Reports, Dabur Reports, AC Nielsen, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) titled The Bird of Gold, Aranca ResearchNote: Germany population is estimated to reach 81.26 million by 20167809009509008508007507002011203020112030CAGR: 0.8%16026701002003002011201620112016

CAGR: 4.3%CAGR: 10.8%41163120008006002010202020102020Indias working population to be more than double the total population of the US (361.6 million) by 2030Indias middle income class to be thrice the total population in Germany by 2016Rural Indias per capita disposable income set to increaseWorking population (aged between 15 and 64 years) estimated to increase from 780 million in 2011 to 900 million by 2030Indias middle income population estimated to reach 267 million by 2016 from 160million in 2011Rural Indias per capita disposable income is estimated to rise to USD631 in 2020 from USD411 in 2010FDI into the country in that periodSource: Emami, E - Estimates by AC Nielsen, Nexus Novus, Live Mint, Jan 13, Aranca ResearchThe engineering sector is delicensed;I1n0v0epsetmr ecennt taFpDpIroisvaallloowf uepdtion1th0e0 percseencttofroreign equity in single brandretail and 51 per cent in multi-brandDue to policy support, there wasIcnuitmiautilvaetisvelikFeDFI oofoUd SSDe1c4u.0ribtyillBioilnl ainntdodthireecstecctaosrhotvrearnsAfperrils2u0b0s0idieFserberaucahrya2b0o12u,tm40akpienrgcuepnt8.o6f pheorucseenhtooldfstointalGGrroowwiinngg ddeemmaannddRising incomes and growing youth population have been key growth drivers of the sectorBrand consciousness has also aideddemandFirst Time Modern Trade Shoppers spend is estimated to triple to USD1 billion by 2015Tier II/III cities are witnessingfaster growth in modern tradeAttractive opportunitiesLow penetration levels in rural market offers room for growthDisposable income in rural India has increased due to the direct cash transfer schemeGrowing demand for premium productsExports is another growth segmentPolicy supportretailIndiaThe minimum capitalisation forforeign FMCG companies to invest in India is USD100 millionHigher investmentsIndustry has witnessed healthy FDI inflow, as the sector accounted for3.0 per cent of the countrys totalFDI inflow over April 2000 to October 2013Many players are expanding into new geographies and categoriesOrganised retail share is expected to double to 14-18 per cent of the overall retail market by 20152013FMCGmarket size: USD44.9billion2020EFMCGmarket size: USD135billionAdvantageIndiaSource: HUL, Aranca Research Notes: OTC is over the counter products; ethicals are a range of pharma productsFMCGHousehold carePersonal careFood & BeveragesFabric wash, Household cleanersOral care, hair care, skin care, cosmetics/deodorants, perfumes, feminine hygiene and paper productsHealth beverages, staples/cereals, bakery products, snacks, chocolates, ice cream, tea/coffee/soft drinks, processed fruits and vegetables, dairy products, and branded flourHealth careOTC products and ethicalsSource: Dabur Annual Report 2011-12, Economic Times Apr 2013, May 2013, Emami Annual Report 2011-12, Mckinsey Global Institute, Aranca ResearchFMCG is the fourth largest sector in the Indian economy

The FMCG sector has grown at an annual average of about 11 per cent over the last decade

Retail market in India is estimated to reach USD450 billion by 2015, with organised retail accounting for a 1418 per cent share; this is likely to boost revenues of FMCG companiesIndian FMCG industry (USD billion)Gross block of FMCG industry (USD billion)Market size of chocolates (USD million)Market size of personal care (USD billion)HULs share in FMCG market(Personal Care) (Per cent)>50