FLORIDA DEFENSE INDUSTRY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS · 2018. 1. 5. · 2 2017 Update Florida Defense Industry Economic Impact Analysis 2017 Update Acknowledgments Matrix Design Group

FLORIDA DEFENSE INDUSTRY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

DECEMBER 2017

1

Florida Defense Industry Economic Impact Analysis

2017 Update

Prepared for:

The Florida Defense Support Task Force

December 2017

Prepared by:

2

2017 Update

Florida Defense Industry Economic Impact Analysis 2017 Update

Acknowledgments

Matrix Design Group would like to thank the Florida Defense Support Task Force for their ongoing support of our Armed Services and the men

and women who protect our nation.

Florida Defense Support Task Force

Bruce Grant

Vice President, Military & Defense Programs

Terrance McCaffrey

Executive Director

Marcy Muldrow Sanders

Grants Manager

Florida Defense Support Task Force Members

Senator Doug Broxson

Major General Michael A. Calhoun

Brigadier General Chip Diehl, USAF (Ret.)

Lieutenant Colonel William Dudley, USAF (Ret.)

Admiral Mark Fitzgerald (Ret.)

CW5 Derrick Fritts

Amy Gowder

Major General Richard Haddad, USAF (Ret.)

Representative Clay Ingram

Tom Neubauer

Representative Holly Raschein

Commissioner Barbara Stewart

Representative Jay Trumbull

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Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 32

Trends in National Defense Spending ................................................................................................................................................................................. 35

Overview of the Estimates ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38

State of Florida Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 42

Impacts by Type .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 45

Military Share of Total Earnings .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 46

Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings ................................................................................................................................................... 47

Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment ....................................................................................................................................................... 48

Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 49

Florida’s Procurement Economy ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 50

Regional Analysis Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56

Northwest Florida Region .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 58

Northwest Florida Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 58

Regional Impacts by Type ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 61

Military Share of Total Earnings ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 63

Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings ............................................................................................................................................... 64

Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment ................................................................................................................................................... 65

Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980................................................................................................................................................................... 66

Demographics and the Regional Economy ...................................................................................................................................................................... 67

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2017 Update


North Central Florida Region .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 69

North Central Florida Regional Summary........................................................................................................................................................................ 69





Change in Military Employment ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 77


Northeast Florida Region .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 80

Northeast Florida Regional Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................. 80







East Central Florida Region ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 91

East Central Florida Region Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................. 91




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Demographics and the Regional Economy .................................................................................................................................................................... 100

Tampa Bay Florida Region ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 102

Tampa Bay Florida Region Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................. 102

Regional Impacts by Type ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 105

Military Share of Total Earnings .................................................................................................................................................................................... 107

Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings ............................................................................................................................................. 108

Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment ................................................................................................................................................. 109

Change in Military Employment .................................................................................................................................................................................... 110


South Central Florida Region............................................................................................................................................................................................. 113

South Central Florida Region Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 113







Southeast Florida Region .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 124

Southeast Florida Region Summary .............................................................................................................................................................................. 124

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2017 Update








Southwest Florida Region ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 135

Southwest Florida Region Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................. 135







County Analysis Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 146

Bay County ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 149

Bay County Summary .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 149

Economic Impact Estimates .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 149

Military Impacts by Type ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 152



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Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980................................................................................................................................................................. 156


Bradford County ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 159

Bradford County Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 159








Brevard County ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 169

Brevard County Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 169








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2017 Update


Clay County ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 179

Clay County Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 179








Duval County ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 189

Duval County Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 189






Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980................................................................................................................................................................. 196


Escambia County ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 199

Escambia County Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 199


9









Highlands County .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 209

Highlands County Summary .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 209








Hillsborough County .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 219

Hillsborough County Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 219

Economic Impacts Estimates ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 219




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2017 Update




Miami-Dade County .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 229

Miami-Dade County Summary ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 229








Monroe County ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 239

Monroe County Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 239








Okaloosa County ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 249

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Okaloosa County Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 249








Orange County .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 259

Orange County Summary .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 259








Pinellas County .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 269

Pinellas County Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 269



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2017 Update







Polk County ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 279

Polk County Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 279








Santa Rosa County ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 289

Santa Rosa County Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 289






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Table of Tables

Table 1. State of Florida: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .......................................................................................................................................... 42

Table 2. State of Florida: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ......................................................................................................................................... 43

Table 3. Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) .................................................................................................. 45

Table 4. State Rankings: Procurement Contracts by Place of Performance, 2009 - 2016 ....................................................................................................... 52

Table 5. Occupations Generated by Procurement Spending, FY 2016 .................................................................................................................................... 54

Table 6. Regional Impacts as a Percent of Whole .................................................................................................................................................................... 57

Table 7. Northwest Region: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ..................................................................................................................................... 58

Table 8. Northwest Florida Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ........................................................................................................................ 59

Table 9. Northwest Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ................................................................... 61

Table 10. Northwest Region: Defense Impacts by County, 2016 ............................................................................................................................................ 62

Table 11. Demographic Estimates: Northwest Florida Region ................................................................................................................................................ 67

Table 12. North Central Region: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .............................................................................................................................. 69

Table 13. North Central Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ............................................................................................................................. 70

Table 14. North Central Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)............................................................. 72

Table 15. North Central Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016 ...................................................................................................................................... 73

Table 16. Demographic Estimates, North Central Florida Region ........................................................................................................................................... 78

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Table 17. Northeast Region: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .................................................................................................................................... 80

Table 18. Northeast Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ................................................................................................................................... 81

Table 19. Northeast Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) .................................................................. 83

Table 20. Northeast Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016 ............................................................................................................................................ 84

Table 21. Demographic Estimates, Northeast Florida Region ................................................................................................................................................. 89

Table 22. East Central Region: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ................................................................................................................................. 91

Table 23. East Central Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ................................................................................................................................ 92

Table 24. East Central Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ............................................................... 94

Table 25. East Central Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016 ......................................................................................................................................... 95

Table 26. Demographic Estimates, East Central Florida Region ............................................................................................................................................ 100

Table 27. Tampa Bay Region: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ................................................................................................................................. 102

Table 28. Tampa Bay Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020................................................................................................................................ 103

Table 29. Tampa Bay Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ............................................................... 105

Table 30. Tampa Bay Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016 ......................................................................................................................................... 106

Table 31. Demographic Estimates, Tampa Bay Florida Region .............................................................................................................................................. 111

Table 32. South Central Region Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ............................................................................................................................. 113

Table 33. South Central Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ........................................................................................................................... 114

Table 34. South Central Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ........................................................... 116

Table 35. South Central Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016..................................................................................................................................... 117

Table 36. Demographic Estimates, South Central Florida Region.......................................................................................................................................... 122

Table 37. Southeast Region: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .................................................................................................................................. 124

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Table 38. Southeast Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ................................................................................................................................. 125

Table 39. Southeast Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ................................................................ 127

Table 40. Southeast Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016 .......................................................................................................................................... 128

Table 41. Demographic Estimates, Southeast Florida Region ............................................................................................................................................... 133

Table 42. Southwest Region: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ................................................................................................................................. 135

Table 43. Southwest Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ................................................................................................................................ 136

Table 44. Southwest Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ............................................................... 138

Table 45. Southwest Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016 ......................................................................................................................................... 139

Table 46. Demographic Estimates, Southwest Florida Region .............................................................................................................................................. 144

Table 47. Economic Impacts of Select Counties, 2016 .......................................................................................................................................................... 148

Table 48. Bay County : Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ........................................................................................................................................... 149

Table 49. Bay County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ........................................................................................................................................... 150

Table 50. Bay County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) .......................................................................... 152

Table 51. Demographic Estimates, Bay County ..................................................................................................................................................................... 157

Table 52. Bradford County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .................................................................................................................................... 159

Table 53. Bradford County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020................................................................................................................................... 160

Table 54. Bradford County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) .................................................................. 162

Table 55. Demographic Estimates, Bradford County ............................................................................................................................................................. 167

Table 56. Brevard County : Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .................................................................................................................................... 169

Table 57. Brevard County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 .................................................................................................................................... 170

Table 58. Brevard County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ................................................................... 172

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2017 Update


Table 59. Demographic Estimates, Brevard County .............................................................................................................................................................. 177

Table 60. Clay County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ........................................................................................................................................... 179

Table 61. Clay County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 .......................................................................................................................................... 180

Table 62. Clay County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ......................................................................... 182

Table 63. Demographic Estimates, Clay County .................................................................................................................................................................... 187

Table 64. Duval County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ......................................................................................................................................... 189

Table 65. Duval County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ........................................................................................................................................ 190

Table 66. Duval County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ....................................................................... 192

Table 67. Demographic Estimates, Duval County .................................................................................................................................................................. 197

Table 68. Escambia County : Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .................................................................................................................................. 199

Table 69. Escambia County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 .................................................................................................................................. 200

Table 70. Escambia County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ................................................................. 202

Table 71. Demographic Estimates, Escambia County ............................................................................................................................................................ 207

Table 72. Highlands County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .................................................................................................................................. 209

Table 73. Highlands County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ................................................................................................................................. 210

Table 74. Highlands County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ................................................................ 212

Table 75. Demographic Estimates, Highlands County ........................................................................................................................................................... 217

Table 76. Hillsborough County : Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ............................................................................................................................. 219

Table 77. Hillsborough County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ............................................................................................................................ 220

Table 78. Hillsborough County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ............................................................ 222

Table 79. Demographic Estimates, Hillsborough County....................................................................................................................................................... 227

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Table 80. Miami-Dade County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .............................................................................................................................. 229

Table 81. Miami-Dade County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ............................................................................................................................. 230

Table 82. Miami-Dade County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ............................................................ 232

Table 83. Demographic Estimates, Miami-Dade County ....................................................................................................................................................... 237

Table 84. Monroe County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ..................................................................................................................................... 239

Table 85. Monroe County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 .................................................................................................................................... 240

Table 86. Monroe County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ................................................................... 242

Table 87. Demographic Estimates, Monroe County .............................................................................................................................................................. 247

Table 88. Okaloosa County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ................................................................................................................................... 249

Table 89. Okaloosa County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 .................................................................................................................................. 250

Table 90. Okaloosa County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ................................................................. 252

Table 91. Demographic Estimates, Okaloosa County ............................................................................................................................................................ 257

Table 92. Orange County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ...................................................................................................................................... 259

Table 93. Orange County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ..................................................................................................................................... 260

Table 94. Orange County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) .................................................................... 262

Table 95. Demographic Estimates, Orange County ............................................................................................................................................................... 267

Table 96. Pinellas County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ...................................................................................................................................... 269

Table 97. Pinellas County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020..................................................................................................................................... 270

Table 98. Pinellas County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) .................................................................... 272

Table 99. Demographic Estimates, Pinellas County ............................................................................................................................................................... 277

Table 100. Polk County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures ......................................................................................................................................... 279

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2017 Update


Table 101. Polk County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ........................................................................................................................................ 280

Table 102. Polk County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016) ....................................................................... 282

Table 103. Demographic Estimates, Polk County .................................................................................................................................................................. 287

Table 104. Santa Rosa County: Combined Direct Defense Expenditures .............................................................................................................................. 289

Table 105. Santa Rosa County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020 ............................................................................................................................. 290

Table 106. Santa Rosa County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)............................................................. 292

Table 107. Demographic Estimates, Santa Rosa County ....................................................................................................................................................... 297

Table of Figures

Figure 1. Components of the Defense Economy ..................................................................................................................................................................... 32

Figure 2. Defense Spending as a Share of Federal Spending and Gross Domestic Product ..................................................................................................... 36

Figure 3. National Defense Spending by Service, 1948 - 2018 ................................................................................................................................................ 37

Figure 4. State of Florida: Distribution of Direct Defense Expenditures .................................................................................................................................. 42

Figure 5. Military Share of Total Earnings ................................................................................................................................................................................ 46

Figure 6. Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings ........................................................................................................................................ 47

Figure 7. Military Employment as a Share Total Employment ................................................................................................................................................. 48

Figure 8. Total Military employment Indexed to 1980 ............................................................................................................................................................ 49

Figure 9. Florida Procurement - Historic and Forecast, 1995 - 2021 ....................................................................................................................................... 51

Figure 10. Defense Procurement by Industry, 2001 - 2016 ..................................................................................................................................................... 53

Figure 11. County Groupings for Regions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 57

Figure 12. Northwest Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Expenditures ........................................................................................................................... 58

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Figure 13. Military Share of Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northwest Florida Region ..................................................................... 63

Figure 14. Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and Northwest Florida Region ........................... 64

Figure 15. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northwest Florida Region ......................... 65

Figure 16. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northwest Florida Region ........................................ 66

Figure 17. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Northwest Florida Region ..................................................................................................................... 68

Figure 18. Northwest Florida Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Expenditures ............................................................................................................... 69

Figure 19. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the North Central Region ................................................................... 74

Figure 20. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the North Central Region .................................. 75

Figure 21. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the North Central Region ................................ 76

Figure 22. Total Military employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the North Central Region ............................................... 77

Figure 23. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – North Central Florida Region ................................................................................................................ 79

Figure 24 . Northeast Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Expenditures ........................................................................................................................... 80

Figure 25. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northeast Florida Region ............................................................. 85

Figure 26. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northeast Florida Region ............................ 86

Figure 27.Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northeast Florida Region ........................... 87

Figure 28. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northeast Florida Region ......................................... 88

Figure 29. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Northeast Florida Region ...................................................................................................................... 90

Figure 30. East Central Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Expenditures ......................................................................................................................... 91

Figure 31. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the East Central Florida Region .......................................................... 96

Figure 32. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the East Central Region ..................................... 97

Figure 33. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the East Central Florida Region....................... 98

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2017 Update


Figure 34. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the East Central Florida Region ...................................... 99

Figure 35. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – East Central Florida Region ................................................................................................................. 101

Figure 36. Tampa Bay Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ............................................................................................................................... 102

Figure 37. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Tampa Bay Florida Region ......................................................... 107

Figure 38. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Tampa Bay Florida Region ......................... 108

Figure 39. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Tampa Bay Florida Region ...................... 109

Figure 40. Total Military employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Tampa Bay Florida Region ...................................... 110

Figure 41. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Tampa Bay Florida Region .................................................................................................................. 112

Figure 42. South Central Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ........................................................................................................................... 113

Figure 43. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the South Central Florida Region ....................................................... 118

Figure 44. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the South Central Region ................................ 119

Figure 45. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the South Central Region ............................... 120

Figure 46. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the South Central Florida Region ................................. 121

Figure 47. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – South Central Florida Region .............................................................................................................. 123

Figure 48. Southeast Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ................................................................................................................................ 124

Figure 49. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the Southeast Region ........................................................................ 129

Figure 50. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the Southeast Region ........................................ 130

Figure 51. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Southeast Region.................................... 131

Figure 52. Total military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Southeast Region ................................................... 132

Figure 53. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Southeast Florida Region .................................................................................................................... 134

Figure 54. Southwest Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ................................................................................................................................ 135

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Figure 55. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the Southwest Region ....................................................................... 140

Figure 56. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the Southwest Florida Region ........................... 141

Figure 57. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Southwest Region ................................... 142

Figure 58. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southwest Region ............................................................... 143

Figure 59. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Southwest Florida Region ................................................................................................................... 145

Figure 60. Bay County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending .......................................................................................................................................... 149

Figure 61. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and Bay County Florida ........................................................................... 153

Figure 62. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and Bay County Florida ............................................ 154

Figure 63. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and Bay County Florida ........................................ 155

Figure 64. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and Bay County Florida ....................................................... 156

Figure 65. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Bay County ......................................................................................................................................... 158

Figure 66. Bradford County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending .................................................................................................................................. 159

Figure 67. Military Share of the Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, North Central Florida Region, and Bradford County ......................... 163

Figure 68. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, North Central Region, and Bradford County .......... 164

Figure 69. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, North Central Region, Bradford County............... 165

Figure 70. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, North Central Region, and Bradford County ....................... 166

Figure 71. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Bradford County ................................................................................................................................. 168

Figure 72. Brevard County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending.................................................................................................................................... 169

Figure 73. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United states, Florida, East Central Region, and Brevard County ............................................... 173

Figure 74. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United states, Florida, East Central Region, and Brevard County ............... 174

Figure 75. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Brevard County ............ 175

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2017 Update


Figure 76. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Brevard County ............................ 176

Figure 77. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Brevard County ................................................................................................................................... 178

Figure 78. Clay County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ......................................................................................................................................... 179

Figure 79. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United states, Florida, Northeast Region, and Clay County ........................................................ 183

Figure 80. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United states, Florida, Northeast Region, and Clay County ........................ 184

Figure 81. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Clay County ..................... 185

Figure 82. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Clay County ..................................... 186

Figure 83. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Clay County ......................................................................................................................................... 188

Figure 84. Duval County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ....................................................................................................................................... 189

Figure 85. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United states, Florida, Northeast Region, and Duval County ...................................................... 193

Figure 86. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United states, Florida, Northeast Region, and Duval County...................... 194

Figure 87. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Duval County ................... 195

Figure 88. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Duval County .................................. 196

Figure 89. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Duval County ...................................................................................................................................... 198

Figure 90. Escambia County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ................................................................................................................................. 199

Figure 91. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Escambia County ................................... 203

Figure 92. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Escambia County .. 204

Figure 93. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Escambia County 205

Figure 94. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Escambia County ............... 206

Figure 95. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Escambia County ................................................................................................................................ 208

Figure 96. Highlands County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ................................................................................................................................ 209

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Figure 97. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, South Central Region, and Highlands County ......................................... 213

Figure 98. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, South Central Region, and Highlands County ......... 214

Figure 99. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, South Central Region, and Highlands County ...... 215

Figure 100. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, South Central Region, and Highlands County .................... 216

Figure 101. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Highlands County.............................................................................................................................. 218

Figure 102. Hillsborough County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending .......................................................................................................................... 219

Figure 103. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Hillsborough County ....................................... 223

Figure 104. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Hillsborough County....... 224

Figure 105. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa By Region, and Hillsborough County ...... 225

Figure 106. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Hillsborough County ................... 226

Figure 107. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Hillsborough County ......................................................................................................................... 228

Figure 108. Miami-Dade County Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ........................................................................................................................... 229

Figure 109. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County ......................................... 233

Figure 110. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County ......... 234

Figure 111. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County ...... 235

Figure 112. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County...................... 236

Figure 113. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Miami-Dade County.......................................................................................................................... 238

Figure 114. Monroe County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ................................................................................................................................. 239

Figure 115. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County ......................................... 243

Figure 116. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Monroe County ............... 244

Figure 117. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Monroe County ............. 245

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2017 Update


Figure 118. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Monroe County ............................ 246

Figure 119. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Monroe County ................................................................................................................................ 248

Figure 120. Okaloosa County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ............................................................................................................................... 249

Figure 121. Military Share of total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Region, and Okaloosa County .............................................. 253

Figure 122. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest region, and Okaloosa County ............. 254

Figure 123. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Region, and Okaloosa County .......... 255

Figure 124. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Region, and Okaloosa County .......................... 256

Figure 125. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Okaloosa County............................................................................................................................... 258

Figure 126. Orange County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending .................................................................................................................................. 259

Figure 127. Military Share of total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Orange County .............................................. 263

Figure 128. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central region, and Orange County .............. 264

Figure 129. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Orange County ........... 265

Figure 130. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Orange County .......................... 266

Figure 131. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Orange County ................................................................................................................................. 268

Figure 132. Pinellas County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending .................................................................................................................................. 269

Figure 133. Military Share of total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Pinellas County ................................................ 273

Figure 134. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay region, and Pinellas County ............... 274

Figure 135. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Pinellas County ............ 275

Figure 136. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Pinellas County............................ 276

Figure 137. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth, Pinellas County ................................................................................................................................... 278

Figure 138. Polk County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ....................................................................................................................................... 279

25



Figure 139. Military Share of total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Polk County ..................................................... 283

Figure 140. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay region, and Polk County ..................... 284

Figure 141. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Polk County ................. 285

Figure 142. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Polk County ................................. 286

Figure 143. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth, Polk County ........................................................................................................................................ 288

Figure 144. Santa Rosa County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending ............................................................................................................................. 289

Figure 145. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Santa Rosa County .............................. 293

Figure 146. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Santa Rosa County 294

Figure 147. Military Employment as a share of Total Employment, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida, and Santa Rosa County ......... 295

Figure 148. Total employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Santa Rosa County ........................ 296

Figure 149. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth, Santa Rosa County .............................................................................................................................. 298

26

Please see next page.

27



Executive Summary To provide a consistent comparison of Florida’s defense industry over time, this 2017 update utilizes the same econometric forecasting models

and defense-related spending flows as previous studies. However, in order to bring higher fidelity to our estimates, this update incorporates

distribution data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for National Guard personnel compensation estimates. Over time, these data

are more stable than the U.S. Census data utilized in previous updates. The use of these data do not affect the total statewide impact estimates –

only how the impacts associated with the National Guard are distributed across the state; otherwise, this update utilizes the same methodologies,

data, and econometric models as in previous updates. This includes using the REMI PI+ 70 sector model to estimate total economic impacts at the

state and county levels. As in previous years, the study relies primarily on data from the REMI model, U.S. Department of Treasury, U.S. Department

of Defense (DoD), U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (DVA), U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Florida National Guard, DoD Base

Structures Report, DoD Green Book, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. BEA, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

ES. 1. DEFENSE SPENDING IN FLORIDA, 2011 - 2016

Source: US Department of Treasury; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; US Department of Veterans Affairs

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Procurement Salaries Transfer Payments2011 2014 2016

CU

RR

ENT

DO

LLA

RS

(BIL

LIO

NS)

7.6%

36.5%

2.5%

28

2017 Update


For comparisons sake, Table ES1 provides changes in defense spending over time. As the table indicates, between 2014 and 2016 Florida

experienced a 36.5% increase in procurement contacts, a slight decline of 2.5% in salaries paid to personnel, and a 7.6% increase in transfer

payments. The vast majority of increases in procurement contracts were seen in the manufacturing industry and were primarily realized in

Brevard, Orange, and Okaloosa counties.

Table ES2 below presents the total economic impacts associated with the direct spending presented in Table ES1. At the table indicates, these

spending flows generated $84.9 billion in economic impacts (gross state product) and support nearly 802,000 jobs across the state. Installations

(inside the fence operations) are responsible for 56% of these impacts with procurement contracts (outside the fence) and transfer payments both

generating 22% of impacts each.

Source: REMI PI+ Version 2.0.3

Among the key findings of the study:

Defense spending was directly or indirectly responsible for $84.9 Billion, or 9.2%, of Florida’s 2016 Gross State Product (GSP).

Defense-related spending accounted for a total of 801,747 direct, indirect and induced jobs.

Of the $39.6 billion spent in Florida in 2016, approximately $14.0 billion was for procurement, $7.4 billion for salaries and wages, and

$18.2 billion for transfers (military retiree pensions and veteran’s benefits).

The ten largest Florida defense contractors supplied $7.7 billion, or roughly 55% of the $14.0 billion value of defense procured goods and

services.

Nearly 2/3 ($8.6B) of all private-sector defense contracts are performed in Brevard, Orange, and Okaloosa counties.

ES. 2. Total Economic Impacts of Defense Spending, 2016

Billions USD

Impact Type Economic Impact Employment % of Total

Total $84.9 801,747 100%

Installation Footprint (Salaries and Base Support Contracts)

$47.5 390,730 56%

Procurement (Contracts performed off-installation)

$18.8 178,172 22%

Transfers (Veterans Benefits & Military Pensions)

$18.7 232,846 22%

29



Since 2014, Florida increased the value of all defense contracts performed in-state by 36.5% compared to the U.S at 4.8%.

In addition these findings, the impacts from defense spending are felt across the entire state. Table ES. 3, provides the distribution of impacts

across the eight (8) regions in our study. While all eight regions receive some level of impact, five regions drive 96% of all impacts – Northwest,

East Central, Tampa Bay, Southeast, and Northeast regions – which covers 85% of the state-wide population. In other words, residents from across

the state are impacted both directly and indirectly by Florida’s role in defending our Nation’s interest. While not all residents can see military jets

on maneuver or feel the earth shaking from bombing exercises being conducted at one of Florida ranges, many are employed and earn income –

either directly or indirectly – from Florida’s Defense Economy.

ES. 3. Regional Impacts as a Percent of State-wide Impacts

Region Economic Impact (Billions USD)

Job Impact Percent of State-wide

Impacts

Percent of State

Population

Northwest Region $22.1 182,449 26% 7%

East Central Region $17.4 166,406 20% 14%

Tampa Bay Region $17.1 163,071 20% 22%

Southeast Region $12.4 127,832 15% 33%

Northeast Region $12.3 115,965 15% 9%

Southwest Region $1.9 23,625 2% 6%

North Central Region $1.4 19,074 2% 7%

South Central Region $0.2 3,325 <0% 1%

Source: REMI Pi+ Version 2.0.3

30

2017 Update


31




32

2017 Update


Introduction The Florida Defense Support Taskforce (FDSTF) commissioned the Matrix Design Group to conduct the 2017 update to the Florida Defense Industry

Economic Impact Analysis. As with previous updates, the purpose of this study is to chronicle the economic impact of defense spending within

Florida. Defense spending, or what is referred to as the Defense Economy, is predominately realized by way of three federal spending flows:1

1. Installation Footprint (Base Operations)

2. Procurement Contracts

3. Transfer Payments

With 22 installations, nearly 150,000 Department of Defense (DoD)

personnel, hundreds of defense contractors, and more than 1.5 million

veterans and military retirees, Florida ranks in the top 5 for defense

spending among US states.2 The federal dollars associated with supporting

installation footprints, private-sector defense contractors, and providing

well-earned benefits from the state’s veterans and military retirees sum

to nearly $40 billion in direct defense spending in 2016. Known as the

multiplier effect, these spending flows ripple through the state economy

to create additional second (indirect) and third (induced) order impacts.

The premise of this study is to measure the sum of these impacts in order

to understand the far reaching affects tied to the Florida Defense

Economy.

How much economic activity in Florida is attributable to defense

spending? An accurate calculation of defense-related economic impact

requires an accurate accounting of the magnitude of defense spending

flowing into Florida and an accurate mapping (both geographically and by

industry sector) of this spending as it flows through local economies within

the state. To achieve comparable estimates across time, it is necessary to

1 Federal spending within the Defense Economy is comprised of expenditures from the US Department of Defense, US Department of Veterans Affairs, US Department of Homeland Security. 2 DoD personnel consist of active duty, civilian, National Guard, and Reserve.

Figure 1. Components of the Defense Economy

33



apply consistent data sources and analytical methods as

those used in past updates. However, as new data becomes

available, it is the responsibility of an analyst to incorporate

these data if they are to provide better, more reliable

estimates. For the 2017 update, a methodological decision

was made to incorporate BEA data for National Guard

county-level compensation estimates. In past versions,

residency patterns from the US Census Bureau were used to

estimate county of residence for Guardsmen. The use of BEA

data did not impact the state-level economic impact

estimates; however, they do impact how the distribution of

National Guard impacts are allocated across the state. While

the 2017 county-level estimates show a slight adjustment

from the 2015 study, making this adjustment now, will allow

for more stable estimates moving forward.

As was noted in previous updates, the scope of this study is

limited to measures of economic activity. The value of

defense personnel to Florida extends well beyond this

singular dimension. Military men and women and their spouses, as well as veterans and military retirees, all make positive intangible contributions

to the communities in which they reside. However, to remain consistent, these contributions were not considered in our estimates. Rather,

economic data were compiled primarily from secondary sources – such as DoD reports and other federal databases – with the objective of

identifying all defense-related expenditures occurring in Florida for the most recent annual period (2016). As mentioned above, these spending

flows include things such as personnel salaries, base operating support contracts (construction, utilities, supplies, etc.), defense industry contracts

(weapons development, manufacturing, modeling and simulation, RDT&E, etc.), military retirement pay, and DVA expenditures. Also included in

these estimates are similar expenditures by the National Guard and the U.S. Coast Guard.

These expenditures are collected at the county and/or ZIP code levels and constitute what is known as direct defense spending. Direct spending

across the state has first order economic impacts – meaning they generate the first round of employment, income, and Gross Regional Product

(GRP) impacts. For instance, the $14 billion in procurement contracts performed in-state during 2016 generated nearly 66,000 direct jobs.

However, as these expenditures flow through the economy, they multiply as they induce further rounds of spending. Returning to the procurement

example, once the $14 billion in contracts are realized, in order to perform these contracts, contractors must purchase intermediate inputs from

34

2017 Update


suppliers (indirect effect). Contractors must also hire the necessary labor to carry-out their contractual obligations. As this labor spends their

income in the local economy, these expenditures create a third order (induced effect) of spending impacts. Together – direct, indirect, and induced

spending – create what is referred to as the total economic impact of a particular spending flow – in this case procurement contracts. In order to

estimate these impacts, an econometric model is used at the appropriate industry and geographic (county) level. Using this model, it estimated

the $14 billion in procurement contracts generates the initial 66,000 jobs then the second and third order spending generates an additional

112,000.

The Regional Economic Models, Inc. Policy Insight Plus (REMI PI+) economic simulation model was used to evaluate the economic impact of these

direct spending flows. A regional baseline forecast extending through the year 2020 for each of the 67 Florida counties was constructed. The

differences between the baseline forecast and a forecast where military spending has been removed comprise the results. The resulting change

in GRP resulting from the absence of defense-related spending flows is the measure of economic impact reported. The measure of economic

impact used throughout the report is change in GRP. While results could be reported in terms of total sales, as personal income, or other measures,

GRP is the local analogue to the widely understood national level concept of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GRP reporting follows the structure

of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), which contain the primary measures used for tracking changes in the national economy. This

conceptual framework for organizing economic activity recognizes that the dollar value of all final goods and services produced (the GDP) can be

measured by the following equation:

GRP = C + I + G + (X-M)

Consumption spending by individuals on goods and services

Investment expenditures by businesses and individuals

Government spending

Exports (gross value)

Imports (gross value)

The results reported, which are the changes in GRP attributable to defense-related spending, are composed of the same elements as would be

found in the national-level GDP. For the reader’s convenience, this report is organized into three separate sections. Section 1 (here) presents

information on the national defense budget and Florida’s defense presence relative to other key states. It includes an analysis of defense spending

in Florida along with statewide economic impact estimates. In Section 2, the state-level impacts are parsed into eight geographical regions (as

identified by Enterprise Florida, Incorporated) and spending for each region is analyzed. Each regional spending pattern is accompanied by regional

economic impact estimates. Finally, in Section 3, spending analysis is provided for those counties in which defense spending is most pronounced.

As in past updates, employment demographics for each county are discussed along with military employment trends and comparisons. Defense

spending inputs are also presented and discussed as well as economic impact estimates for each county.

35



Trends in National Defense Spending Before we discuss what defense spending means to Florida, it’s important

to understand national spending trends. As can be seen in Figure 2 on the

following page, national defense spending has varied significantly since the

end of World War II. As the data indicate, during the war, national defense

spending consumed nearly 90% of all federal spending and almost 40% of

the country’s GDP. This declined considerably in the years between the

end of World War II and the start of the Korean War—when defense

spending spiked once again to nearly 15% of GDP. Since that time,

spending—relative to the overall size of the federal budget and GDP— has

declined dramatically. By the end of the Cold War, defense spending fell

below 4% of the country’s GDP and consumed less than 20% of the federal

budget. While Sequestration has put downward pressure on defense

spending since 2010, the DoD does forecast a slight uptick in spending to

nearly 16% of federal spending in 2018 – up from just under 15% in 2017.

While many factors have influenced these variations, one primary reason is the US economic growth (and thus the growth of the overall federal

budget) has outpaced the growth in both real and nominal defense expenditures – leading to a lower share of both the federal budget and the

overall economy.

The downward pressures on the defense budget are highlighted further in Figure 3 (on page 37). The data in Figure 3 are comprised of DoD

Green Book estimates of current and projected DoD outlays by branch of service in current 2017 dollars. As these data indicate, spending by

DoD is forecast just under $600 million through 2018—down from nearly $675 billion in 2010. By 2018, expenditures for the Army are forecast

to be $145 billion, for the Navy $164 billion and for the Air Force $158 billion. This is down from the 2011 peak of $238 billion for the Army,

$167 billion for the Navy and $160 billion for the Air Force. Although the Trump administration has pressed Congress to repeal Sequestration –

especially for defense spending – legislative mandated spending caps still remain through 2020.3

3 It should be noted that since 2011, Congress has temporally lifted the spending caps three times through separate budget deals.

36

Figure 2. Defense Spending as a Share of Federal Spending and Gross Domestic Product

Source: US Department of Defense

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37



Figure 3. National Defense Spending by Service, 1948 - 2018

Source: US Department of Defense

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$300,000

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ARMY NAVY AIR FORCE DEFENSE-WIDE

38

2017 Update


Overview of the Estimates The structure of this document remains the same as in

previous updates to present the reader with a seamless

transition from previous studies. Each section begins by

presenting the direct defense spending for that region and

is provided by spending type (procurement, salaries, and

transfers). It should be noted that direct procurement and

personnel spending flows are converted to employment

estimates at the county-level. These estimates are then

used as actual inputs into the model. As such, as with

previous updates, there are slight variations from the

spending totals that are presented at the beginning of each

section. This is done to account for changes in the sales per

worker figures over time – specifically as it relates to

procurement spending. For federal military employment,

federal civilian employment associated with DoD, and

National Guard employment (federal and state), we rely on

actual employment figures reported by the Bureau of

Economic Analysis (BEA) in each county.

For the National Guard figures, we rely on the state report on National Guard spending in Florida and calculate associated employment totals

utilizing those figures and then distribution those spending flows per the BEA estimates on employment and compensation. Civilian employment

totals, by place of residence, are provided by the BEA. However, these data are not parsed by federal workers, who are associated with the

military/National Guard/Coast Guard, etc. To obtain those figures, we utilized a ratio of federal military salaries to federal civilian salaries and

federal military payrolls to military and civilian employees in order to calculate the share of federal workers in a particular region that is associated

with the DoD. For the Coast Guard, much like with the federal military, we rely on BEA employment and compensation estimates and their

respective distributions. To estimate the impacts, we impute employment data, not salary data. Salary data are, however, a good benchmark for

the employment totals.

On the procurement side, we obtained data from the USAspending.gov (maintained by the U.S. Department of Treasury), which hosts every

contract for DoD, the DVA, and DHS. We separate DoD expenditures for the National Guard and “other” to get procurement totals for National

39



Guard and federal military. We then utilize Coast Guard procurement flows through DHS to estimate Coast Guard procurements that flowed into

the state. Those data are available for each contract at the individual contract level. We aggregate those dollar values up to the county level by

NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) code to get the dollar values that flow into each industry sector in each county. We then

converted those dollar values into employment totals and utilized a matrix, which allowed us to calculate jobs based on spending in each six-digit

industry sector. Then, we aggregate those job totals up to the two-digit NAICS sector. To ensure that the data were comparable with the

employment data utilized previously, we utilized direct job impacts in each sector at the county level. For transfer payments, we calculated those

totals at the county level for each county in the State of Florida for the Coast Guard, National Guard, and military. Those data include retirement

payments to military and civilian workers as well as retirement payments to former National Guard members.

Also included were Coast Guard retirement payments,

medical benefits, etc. We include, in this category,

payments made through the DVA to disabled veterans for

pensions, health care, etc. We then enter those data into

the REMI PI+ model for every county in the State of Florida

and for each segment of impacts, yielding a 3x3 matrix of

impact outputs. We detailed impacts for military, National

Guard, and Coast Guard for salaries and wages and base

operating support contracts (encompasses the total

installation operational footprint), off-base procurement

contracts, and transfer payments. Those, in turn, a

together to estimate the total economic impact across the

various types of spending and for “defense activities” as a

whole. We reported this as the impact on employment

(including direct, indirect, and induced impacts) and

economic impact (which is the impact on GDP or Gross

Domestic Product, or at the state level, Gross State

Product and at the regional/county level, Gross Regional

Product). Strictly speaking, we modeled the simulated

effects of “removing” defense activities from the Florida economy. We thus took out defense activities and saw how large of a hole that left in the

model of Florida’s economy. Thus, our impact estimates, at the county level, measured the impact on County “X” of removing defense activities

from the entire Florida economy. Because county economies were interlinked in the model just as they are in the real world, that gave us a slightly

40

2017 Update


larger impact figure than if we had simply removed defense activities from each county separately and reported the results. The same is true at

the regional level. Moreover, different types of spending had different impacts. The largest total impacts came from direct federal employment in

the military, National Guard, and Coast Guard. Thus, a region that had fewer dollars spent in salaries would show higher impacts than a region

that had more dollars in procurement or transfer payments. Further, county-to-county linkages and the presence of large military economies in

neighboring counties magnified the impacts in an interconnected county versus a county that was more isolated but had a large military presence.

Thus, in these models, the whole may well appear to be greater than the sum of the parts. Each of the impact sections that follow were laid out

in roughly the same manner with impacts for the given area under consideration reported on the first page with supporting facts and figures

reported on the pages following.

41




42

2017 Update


State of Florida Summary The Homeland Security and Defense Cluster is recognized by Enterprise

Florida, Incorporated as one of Florida’s target industry clusters.

Constituting 9.2% of the state economy in 2016, this cluster is one of the

largest in Florida. As can be seen from the data presented in Table 1, the

state received nearly $40 billion in direct defense spending in 2016. The

data in the figure sum military spending with National Guard and Coast

Guard totals to form the Combined Direct Expenditure estimate. As the

data indicate, transfer payments accounted for the largest share of

expenditures at $18.2 billion (46%). Salaries brought an additional $7.4

billion (19%) to Florida, and procurement spending brought an additional

$14 billion. These dollars also generate indirect and induced impacts and,

when summed with total impacts, yield the estimates presented in Table 2.

Overall the military accounted for nearly 801,747 jobs in 2016 and just over

$84.9 billion in total Gross State Product (GSP - total value of all goods and

services produced in the state).

Table 1. State of Florida: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures

Spending Flow Millions (Current USD)

Procurement $14,027.9

Salaries $7,361.9

Transfers $18,180.7

Total Combined Direct Expenditures $39,570.4

35%

19%

46%

Procurement

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 4. State of Florida: Distribution of Direct Defense

Expenditures

43



Table 2. State of Florida: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020

Current Millions USD

Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $92,334.3 $97,979.0 $101,548.9 $101,208.6 $98,930.3

Total Employment 801,747 848,900 867,684 849,579 818,667

Gross State Product $84,939.5 $89,518.7 $92,502.7 $92,499.9 $91,189.6

Total Consumption $48,805.7 $50,488.7 $53,327.9 $54,648.3 $55,443.3

Investment Residential $13,152.8 $18,521.8 $19,805.1 $18,587.8 $16,259.4

Investment Non-residential $2,942.1 $3,898.1 $4,311.7 $4,280.4 $4,009.5

Producer's Durable Equipment $1,731.4 $3,085.9 $4,091.5 $4,819.6 $5,362.5

Business Inventories $292.7 $337.5 $350.6 $363.8 $375.4

Government $2,867.1 $4,050.7 $4,829.3 $5,247.1 $5,464.0

Exports $66,708.5 $66,113.9 $66,552.7 $66,454.8 $66,072.4

Imports (subtract) $51,560.8 $56,977.7 $60,766.0 $61,902.0 $61,796.9

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

Based on historic and actual values, 5-year forecasts are also provided in Table 2. Based on these trends, REMI estimates total state-level impacts

are to exceed $92.5 billion by the year 2018 but then recede to just over $91 billion by 2020. By 2020, the defense spending is expected to support

nearly 819,000 jobs However, any drastic change to defense spending nationally could impact this forecast either putting downward pressure by

way of fiscal tightening or upward through fiscal expansion.

In addition to the employment and GSP estimates, Table 2 provide the constituent components of the GSP. As was explained in the introduction

direct defense expenditures expended in the state generated additional employment, wages, consumption spending, and investment with total

impacts indicated in the table below. The impact categories are defined as follows:

44

2017 Update


Total Sales represents the total value of all goods and services sold as a result of military activities. This includes direct spending,

wages, transfer payments, plus spending associated with multiplier effects as initial receipts are re-spent. It incorporates the

value of goods and services produced and sold in the region, imports into the region, and exports from the region.

Total Employment measures jobs generated by military activities.

Total Consumption consists of total purchases across the economy to include food, housing, transportation, medical care,

computers, furniture, etc.

Investment expenditures include residential and non-residential real estate, as well as investment in producers’ durable

equipment and business inventories.

Government revenues include state and local government spending that occurs as a result of the combined activities that are

modeled.

Gross State Product is the sum of consumption, investment, government revenues, and exports less imports. It represents the

total dollar value added of all goods and services produced as a result of defense spending.

45



Table 3. Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD

Spending Flow Federal Military National Guard Coast Guard Total

GSP Jobs GSP Jobs GSP Jobs GSP Jobs

Employment $41,208.2 334,602 $4,523.9 36,623 $1,815.2 19,505 $47,547.4 390,730

Procurement $18,533.8 175,543 $31.8 301 $215.4 2,328 $18,781.0 178,172

Transfers $18,474.2 230,879 $4.3 55 $152.6 1,912 $18,631.1 232,846

Totals $78,216.3 741,024 $4,560.0 36,978 $2,183.2 23,745 $84,939.5 801,747


Impacts by Type Impacts are provided separately for federal military, National Guard, and Coast Guard. We also separate the impacts by source (procurement,

employment, and transfers). Table 3 presents these impacts for 2016. As was the case with previous updates, federal military employment (as

separated from federal National Guard employment) accounts for the vast majority of the economic impacts—just over $78 billion of the $85

billion total (92%). More than half ($41B) of the federal military GSP impacts are tied to employment of federal military and federal civilian workers

(salaries). Procurement flows generate 178,172 jobs across Florida associated with federal military contracts. Transfer payments generate nearly

232,846 jobs as well. The National Guard generates nearly 37,000 jobs total (direct, indirect, and induced), the bulk of which is associated with

salaries. Procurement flows through the National Guard account for 2,328 jobs. The US Coast Guard generates nearly 24,000 jobs in the State of

Florida and adds $2.2 billion to Florida’s GSP. As with both federal military and the National Guard, the bulk of this is driven by employment of the

federal workforce associated with Coast Guard activities.

46

2017 Update


Military Share of Total Earnings Earnings account for the majority of personal income and include wage and salary disbursements, proprietors’ income, and supplements to wages

and salaries. Earnings are therefore a proxy economic impact measure, which is inclusive of more than simply income. Figure 5 benchmarks the

total share of state income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the U.S. As the data reflect, the military contributes to a

slightly larger share of personal income at the state level than at the national level; however, as both the U.S. and Florida continue to diversify

their economies, military share of the total earnings have converged over time to approximately 1.2% of all earnings. This trend is expected to

continue through 2025.

Figure 5. Military Share of Total Earnings

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47



Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings The figure below displays the ratio of average military earnings per military worker to average earnings per worker. It allows us to benchmark the

earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For the state of Florida, military employees in 1980 had earnings which

totaled 114% of the state workforce’s average earnings level. This figure was 87% for the US as a whole. However, since 2000 the ratio of military

earnings to average total earnings increases substantially as military pay surged relative to both the state and the nation. By 2016, the Florida

earnings figure had risen to 157%, and for the US as a whole, the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%. Through 2025, these ratios are

expected to continue to increase to 167% and 127%, respectively.

Figure 6. Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings

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48

2017 Update


Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for the state of Florida against the U.S. As the data indicate, in

1980 the military accounted for nearly 3% of Florida employment and 2% of U.S. employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 1% for both the

state and the US. These data indicate that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of state employment as it once did. As the

state and national economies continue to diversify and total military employment remains relatively flat since the drastic drawdown in active duty

force post World War II through the end of the Cold War.

Figure 7. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment

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49



Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980 The figure above benchmarks the size of military employment in the State of Florida against the 1980 total. For example, Florida military

employment in 1990 was 121% of the 1980 total. Five years later, in 1995, the military had declined to 92% relative to the 1980 benchmark size.

In subsequent years, the data show a continuing decline in military employment compared to the 1980 totals. Military employment, at the national

level, is currently about 80% of its 1980 totals, while at the state level, it is also hovers around 80%.

Figure 8. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980

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50

2017 Update


Florida’s Procurement Economy Federal military procurement is a key driver of Florida’s

high-wage, high-technology economy, generating, as we

noted in Table 3, about 178,172 jobs across the state.

These dollars drive a considerable amount of

employment in high value industries such as

manufacturing and professional and scientific services. In

Figure 9, defense-related procurement flows to Florida

are presented from 1995 through 2017 (blue line). 4

Florida procurement is then forecasted for the 2018 to

2022 period (red line). As was used in previous updates,

the forecasts presented in Figure 9 are based on DoD

projections for national Army, Navy, and Air Force

procurement spending. A regression is utilized to forecast

Florida’s share of these spending flows. As the data

shows, procurement was fairly flat for the period

between 1995 and 2002. However, in the post 9-11 era, procurement flows to the state have approximately doubled, rising from an average of

near $6.5 Billion per year pre 9-11 to $14 billion in the by 2016. Due to the industry in which these dollars flow – primarily manufacturing and

professional and scientific services – defense procurement spending has significant impacts to the Florida economy. While 2016 procurement

spending in the state was the highest ever, this elevated level is projected to decline beginning in 2017. In fact, preliminary data from the U.S.

Department of Treasury suggest procurement spending in Florida declined by nearly 13% between 2016 and 2017. With national procurement

projected to rise slightly through 2021, our forecast calls for an approximate 1% annual growth beginning in 2018.

4 While data for 2017 defense procurement is currently available, the economic impacts presented throughout this report are developed utilizing 2016 data to be consistent with other spending flows (salaries and transfer payments).

51



Source: US Department of Treasury

Figure 9. Florida Procurement: Historic and Forecast, 1995 - 2021

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52

2017 Update



As the data in Table 4 indicate, since 2009 Florida has been among the top states in total procurement flows, consistently ranking behind Virginia,

California, Texas, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania. As is consistent with past years, procurement spending has mostly flowed into three of Florida’s

major industry sectors: construction, manufacturing, and professional, scientific, and technical services. As the data in Figure 10 (on next page)

demonstrate, manufacturing has been the overwhelming beneficiary of federal procurement dollars, raking in, in 2010 alone, approximately $6.1

billion—up from $3.3 billion in 2001. Although experiencing a decline during Sequestration, by 2016 Florida’s defense-related manufacturing sector

had fully rebounded with record setting expenditures of more than $8 billion – an increase of 70% over 2015. In fact, Florida’s defense

manufacturing sector led the way to Florida’s highest procurement spending on record at nearly $14 billion. Professional and technical services,

which is a key driver of the high-tech, high wage economy, increased nearly 13% from 2015 to over $3 billion. Construction, the third largest sector

in terms of procurement flows, while nowhere near the post BRAC highs during 2009 – 2011, did experienced increases of 20% over 2015.

Table 4. State Rankings: Procurement Contracts by Place of Performance, 2009 - 2016

Rank 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1 CA CA VA CA CA VA CA CA

2 VA VA CA VA VA CA VA VA

3 TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX

4 MA FL AZ MD MD CT MD CT

5 FL MA CT MO AZ MD CT FL

6 MD MD MD AZ MA PA PA MD

7 AZ PA FL CT FL FL FL PA

8 PA CT PA PA CT AZ MA MO

9 CT AZ MA FL PA MA AL WA

10 MO MO AL MA MO AL AZ MA

53



Figure 10. Defense Procurement by Industry, 2001 – 2016


Not surprisingly, these dollars support a wide range of occupations across the State of Florida. These occupations, along with their two-digit

Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes are displayed in the Table 5 (on next page). These are direct jobs and do not include the indirect

and induced jobs modeled earlier. However, as the data show, nearly 5.5% of all Florida jobs in the architecture and engineering occupations

(associated with profession and scientific services) are supported directly by federal procurement flows into the state. Nearly 3.75% of all

production occupations (closely tied to the manufacturing sector) are supported directly by procurement flows. As the data here indicate,

procurement dollars are critical to the successful growth of Florida’s high-wage, high-tech and high impact industry sectors, such as

professional/technical services and manufacturing. As the considerable growth in both industries since 2015 demonstrates, Florida has remained

a national leader in the defense industry by developing the necessary business infrastructure (business climate, workforce, defense assets, etc.)

to compete and win high value-added defense contacts.

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54

2017 Update


Table 5. Occupations Generated by Procurement Spending, FY 2016

State of Florida

2 Digit SOC Job Descriptions Direct Jobs Percent of Florida Jobs

43 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 12,319 0.80%

51 Production Occupations 11,942 3.63%

17 Architecture and Engineering Occupations 6,011 5.32%

13 Business and Financial Operations Occupations 5,961 1.19%

15 Computer and Mathematical Occupations 4,425 2.10%

47 Construction and Extraction Occupations 4,351 0.93%

11 Management Occupations 3,646 0.88%

41 Sales and Related Occupations 3,355 0.28%

49 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 2,969 0.76%

53 Transportation and Material-Moving Occupations 2,340 0.43%

23 Legal Occupations 1,474 1.47%

25 Education, Training, and Library Occupations 1,408 0.31%

37 Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations 1,178 0.30%

29 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 1,103 0.20%

27 Arts, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 1,054 0.72%

35 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 745 0.08%

19 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 540 1.25%

31 Healthcare Support Occupations 395 0.15%

39 Personal Care and Service Occupations 255 0.08%

33 Protective Service Occupations 185 0.08%

21 Community and Social Services Occupations 125 0.11%

45 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 13 0.02%

55




56

2017 Update


Regional Analysis Overview In the section that follows, an overview of regional impacts is provided. This analysis utilizes the same regions as in past updates, which include

the following:

Northwest Region

North Central Region

Northeast Region

East Central Region

Tampa Bay Region

South Central Region

Southeast Region

Southwest Region

Much like the state-level analysis in the previous section, an analysis of the impacts of defense spending on each of these eight regional economies

is provided. Each of these regional analyses is presented in precisely the same fashion. First, an overview of the defense-related expenditures

flowing into the region. This is inclusive of activities related to salaries and wages, procurement, and transfer payments for federal military (all

branches including civilians), the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. The economic impacts associated with these dollars across various metrics

are then provided, including Gross Regional Product (GRP), employment, sales, imports, exports, etc. Finally, these impacts are provided for each

type of spending activity across federal military, Coast Guard, and National Guard.

In addition to providing these impacts at the regional level, impacts are provided for each county within the region. Each section also contains an

overview of defense trends within the region over the past several decades, as well as projections going forward. This includes military employment

as a share of total employment, military pay relative to all wages, and trends in military employment. We then close with an overview of regional

demographic and economic conditions. We present a map of Florida’s eight economic regions on the following page. As the map and subsequent

analyses show, defense activities affect these regional economies in very different ways. For example, in Northwest Florida, defense activities

generate $22.1 billion in GRP and account for over 182,000 jobs. This represents over one-third (32%) of Northwest Florida’s entire regional

economic output. This is somewhat unsurprising because Northwest Florida is home to several major installations including the US’s largest Air

Force Base. In South Central Florida, the impact stands at $200 Million in GRP and just over 3,300 jobs. With no major installations located in that

region, the impacts are much smaller. What these data do demonstrate is that every single region in the State of Florida is affected by defense-

related activities regardless of whether major installations are located in the region. This is also true at the county-level, as we will shortly outline

in our county-level analyses. Moreover, as the data demonstrate, these impacts come in decidedly different forms.

57



Figure 11. County Groupings for Regions

Table 6. Regional Impacts as a Percent of Whole

Region GRP

(Billions USD) Job Impact

% of Region’s

Economy

Northwest $22.1 182,449 32.0%

East Central $17.4 166,406 9.1%

Tampa Bay $17.1 163,071 7.6%

Southeast $12.4 127,832 3.3%

Northeast $12.3 115,965 14.3%

Southwest $1.9 23,625 3.9%

North Central $1.4 19,074 4.7%

South Central $0.2 3,325 3.1%

58

2017 Update


Northwest Florida Region

Northwest Florida Summary The Northwest Florida Region includes Bay, Calhoun, Escambia,

Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty,

Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington Counties.

Defense is a major industry in this region with multiple major

installations, one of which is the largest U.S. military reservation

(Eglin Air Force Base). Military spending, summed with the National

Guard and the Coast Guard, totals to the Combined Direct

Expenditure estimates as indicated in Table 7. As presented in Figure

12, salaries accounted for the largest share at 42% or roughly $3.3

billion of the $8 billion total. Transfers accounted for 32%, and

procurement spending accounted for 26%.

Table 7. Northwest Region: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures

Spending Flow Millions (Current USD)


Salaries $3,345.8

Transfers $2,590.8


26%

42%

32%

Procurement

Salaries

Transfers*

Figure 12. Northwest Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Expenditures

59



Table 8. Northwest Florida Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $13,911.4 $14,985.2 $15,508.1 $15,349.4 $14,881.7


Gross Regional Product $22,124.5 $23,075.0 $23,618.0 $23,542.2 $23,253.5



Investment Non-residential $598.4 $768.2 $837.9 $823.4 $763.7

Producer's Durable Equipment $350.3 $628.4 $830.5 $972.7 $1,075.1


Government $696.6 $911.1 $1,058.4 $1,136.5 $1,178.7

Exports $22,990.4 $23,016.1 $23,164.8 $23,067.6 $22,969.7



As presented in Table 8, defense activities accounted for about 182,449 jobs in the Northwest Florida Region in 2016 and over $22 billion in total

Gross Regional Product (GRP - total value of all goods and services produced in the region). The military therefore accounted for approximately

32% (Table 10) of all economic activity in the region. The total impact of defense activities on the regional economy is forecast to increase slightly

through 2020. Consequently, employment impacts are forecast to be about 186,092 in 2020. This amounts to nearly 3,500 more jobs in the region

by that time as a result of defense activities.

Direct defense expenditures expended in the state generated additional employment, wages, consumption spending, and investment with total

impacts indicated in the table below. The impact categories are defined as follows:

60

2017 Update



wages, transfer payments, plus spending associated with multiplier effects as initial receipts are re-spent. It incorporates the value

of goods and services produced and sold in the region, imports into the region, and exports from the region.




Investment expenditures include residential and non-residential real estate, as well as investment in producers’ durable equipment

and business inventories.


modeled.

Gross State Product is the sum of consumption, investment, government revenues, and exports less imports. It represents the total

dollar value added of all goods and services produced as a result of defense spending.

61



Table 9. Northwest Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Employment $15,912.2 124,271 $1,486.0 9,789 $91.4 1,059 $17,489.6 135,119

Procurement $2,787.3 23,228 $0.0 0 $103.1 1,194 $2,890.4 24,422

Transfers $1,732.4 22,770 $0.3 2 $11.8 136 $1,744.4 22,908

Totals $20,431.9 170,269 $1,486.3 9,791 $206.3 2,389 $22,124.5 182,449


Regional Impacts by Type The data in the table above display a 4x4 matrix of the impacts by type for 2016. This includes procurement, federal military employment (salaries

and wages), and transfers for the military, National Guard, and Coast Guard. The GRP impacts (in 2016 US Dollars) are displayed next to the

employment impacts. The total impacts across all categories are displayed in the bottom right-hand corner. As the data indicate, employment for

the military generate the most jobs in the region (135,119), followed by procurement for the military at over 24,000. Transfers account for nearly

23,000 jobs as well. The data in Table 10 (next page) display combined expenditures across the three categories for each county followed by the

economic impacts in terms of GRP and Employment. As the data show, the military accounts for about 67% of all economic output in Okaloosa

County, which equates to roughly 72,000 jobs. This is followed by Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Bay Counties - all of which have major military

installations.

62

2017 Update


Table 10. Northwest Region: Defense Impacts by County, 2016

Millions USD

County

Model Inputs –

Combined Expenditures

Model Outputs –

Combined Impacts

Procurement Transfers Salaries and

Wages Total GDP Employment Percent GDP

Bay $401.1 $359.2 $330.4 $1,090.7 $2,527.8 22,720 25.2%

Calhoun $0.0 $17.1 $0.5 $17.6 $9.9 215 4.4%

Escambia $309.0 $628.0 $1,254.4 $2,191.4 $7,614.4 60,589 43.2%

Franklin -$0.1 $12.4 $0.4 $12.7 $12.0 184 2.8%

Gadsden $5.4 $33.8 $21.9 $61.1 $37.2 552 3.1%

Gulf $0.0 $11.2 $0.5 $11.7 $17.4 247 3.7%

Holmes $0.1 $25.1 $0.9 $26.1 $14.4 345 5.0%

Jackson $0.0 $49.2 $2.0 $51.2 $34.9 572 3.0%

Jefferson $0.0 $26.4 $0.6 $27.0 $9.1 177 3.7%

Leon $47.6 $174.6 $20.1 $242.3 $350.0 4,298 2.3%

Liberty $0.0 $2.9 $0.3 $3.1 $5.7 77 3.2%

Okaloosa $1,254.3 $724.3 $1,652.1 $3,630.8 $9,739.5 72,097 67.4%

Santa Rosa $51.0 $417.7 $52.2 $520.9 $1,438.5 15,826 36.3%

Wakulla $0.0 $19.0 $1.1 $20.2 $15.7 279 2.8%

Walton $0.4 $72.5 $7.5 $80.4 $277.0 3,867 10.0%

Washington $0.1 $17.5 $0.9 $18.5 $21.0 399 4.6%

Total $2,069.1 $2,590.8 $3,345.8 $8,005.7 $22,124.5 182,449 32.0%

63




and salaries. Earnings are therefore a proxy economic impact measure, which are inclusive of more than simply income. The figure above

benchmarks the total share of the Northwest Florida regional income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the State of Florida

and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a substantially larger share of personal income in Northwest Florida than at

the state and national levels, although this has declined over the past few decades and is projected to continue a slight downward trend through

2025.

Figure 13. Military Share of Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northwest Florida Region

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64

2017 Update


Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings The figure below displays the ratio of average military earnings per military worker to average earnings per worker. It thus allows us to benchmark

the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For the Northwest Florida Region, military employees in 1980 had

earnings which totaled 145% of the Northwest Florida workforce’s average earnings level. This figure was 114% for the State of Florida and 87%

for the US as a whole. By 2016, the Northwest Florida earnings figure had risen to 212%. State comparative earnings ticked up to 157%, and for

the US as a whole, the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 14. Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and Northwest Florida Region

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Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for the Northwest Florida Region against the State of Florida

and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 9% of Northwest Florida employment, 2.5% of Florida employment, and just

over 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 4.5%, .85% and .85%, respectively. These data indicate that the military does not

directly contribute to as large a share of regional employment as it once did.

Figure 15. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northwest Florida Region

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66

2017 Update


Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980 The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in the Northwest Florida Region against the 1980 total. For example, military

employment in 1990 was 109% of the 1980 total. By 2000, the military had risen to 109% of its 1980 size and then dropped to 102% by 2005.

Overall, we note that military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has increased for the region, with military employment in 2016 increased

to approximately 106% of its 1980 level. Military employment at the national level, however, is currently at 80% of its 1980 totals, while at the

state level, it is also approximately 81%. These percentages are expected to remain stable through 2025 for all regions.

Figure 16. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northwest Florida Region

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67



Demographics and the Regional Economy The table below contains information on regional population growth rates as well as income (for all industries, not just defense) statistics. These

include the most recent quarter of data available at the time of publication. Between 2007 and 2017, the region’s population grew at 10.1%. The

region is expected to experience continuing growth of 13.8% through 2027. With respect to annual wages (wages do not include benefits provided

by employer), the region’s average annual wage is approximately $43,000, compared to the state average of $46,000.

Table 11. Demographic Estimates: Northwest Florida Region

Total Population Estimate

Population in 2007 1,342,847



Growth from 2007 to 2017 10.1%


Income

Average Regional Wage (2017) $42,999

Average Florida Wage (2017) $45,975

Number of Households (2017) 577,339

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody’s Analytics

68

2017 Update


The figure below tracks earnings and growth rates for key industries in the region. The size of the bubble represents overall direct employment,

while growth rates are displayed on the horizontal axis, and average earnings per worker are displayed on the vertical axis. As the figure shows,

the information, government, and manufacturing sectors are the region’s highest earners, with government employing the most workers. The

education and health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 18%. This, along with

the financial activities industry, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected

over the next decade.

Figure 17. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Northwest Florida Region

$0

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(25%) (20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%Ea

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Information

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Manufacturing

Other services

Professional and business services

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Average Earnings Per Worker

69



North Central Florida Region

North Central Florida Regional Summary The North Central Florida Region includes Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie,

Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Levy, Madison, Marion, Suwannee, Taylor, and

Union Counties. As in years past, defense activities play a role in the regional

economy primarily as a function of transfer payments to retirees, veterans,

etc. Military spending, summed with the National Guard and the Coast Guard,

totals to the Combined Direct Expenditure estimates as indicated in Table 12.

Transfer payments accounted for the largest share at roughly $1.1 billion

(81%) of the $1.4 billion total. Salaries accounted for $94.4 million (7%), and

procurement accounted for $166 million (12%).

Table 12. North Central Region: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures

Spending Flow Millions USD

Procurement $166.3

Salaries $94.4

Transfers $1,090.2


12%

7%

81%

Procurement

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 18. Northwest Florida Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Expenditures

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2017 Update


Table 13. North Central Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $1,804.5 $2,020.6 $2,136.2 $2,149.6 $2,116.9




Investment Residential $417.4 $597.5 $646.6 $617.2 $554.0


Producer's Durable Equipment $38.5 $70.3 $94.6 $112.7 $126.6


Government $98.8 $159.0 $200.5 $225.6 $240.9

Exports $916.1 $948.5 $967.7 $964.1 $948.6



Overall, as presented in Table 13, defense activities accounted for just over 19,000 jobs in the North Central Florida Region in 2016 and just over

$1.4 billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP - total value of all goods and services produced in the region). The military therefore accounted

for approximately 4.7% (Table 15) of all economic activity in the region. The total impact of defense activities on the regional economy is forecast

to increase through 2020 with an impact to GRP of $1.7 billion. As a result, employment impacts are forecast to be 21,732 by 2020—a net increase

of about 2,650 jobs in the region as a result of defense activities.

Direct defense expenditures expended in the region generated additional employment, wages, consumption spending, and

investment with total impacts indicated in the table above. The impact categories are defined as follows:

71




wages, transfer payments plus spending associated with multiplier effects as initial receipts are re-spent. It incorporates the

value of goods and services produced and sold in the region, imports into the region, and exports from the region.




Investment expenditures include residential and non-residential real estate as well as investment in producers’ durable

equipment and business inventories.


modeled.

Gross Regional Product is the sum of consumption, investment, government revenues, and exports less imports. It represents

the total dollar value added of all goods and services produced as a result of defense spending.

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2017 Update


Table 14. North Central Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Employment $652.8 6,052 $59.6 706 $10.2 140 $722.5 6,899

Procurement $161.5 2,159 $0.1 1 $0.6 8 $162.2 2,168

Transfers $544.1 9,945 $0.0 0 $4.5 62 $548.6 10,007

Totals $1,358.4 18,156 $59.7 707 $15.2 211 $1,433.3 19,074



and wages), and transfers for the military, National Guard, and Coast Guard. The GRP impacts (in 2016 US Dollars) are displayed next to the

employment impacts. The total impacts across all categories are displayed in the bottom right-hand corner. As the data indicate, transfer payments

to veterans and military retirees generate the most jobs in the region (10,007), followed by federal employment for the military at over 6,900.

Defense procurement accounted for nearly 2,200 jobs as well. The data in Table 15 (next page) display combined expenditures across the three

categories for each county followed by the economic impacts in terms of GRP and Employment. As the data show, the military accounts for about

14.8% of all economic output in Taylor County, which equates to roughly 1,100 jobs. For the remaining counties, the military accounts for between

1% and 7% of their respective economies.

73



Table 15. North Central Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016

Millions USD

County

Model Inputs –


Model Outputs –

Combined Impacts



Alachua $18.5 $291.1 $53.1 $362.7 $559.4 6,400 4.0%

Bradford $9.5 $40.7 $1.0 $51.1 $26.8 537 4.5%

Columbia $2.1 $135.8 $2.7 $140.6 $87.6 1,190 4.1%

Dixie $0.1 $24.9 $0.6 $25.6 $10.9 204 4.7%

Gilchrist $0.0 $22.0 $0.6 $22.7 $13.3 221 4.2%

Hamilton $0.0 $14.9 $0.5 $15.4 $5.8 77 1.2%

Lafayette -$0.4 $6.0 $0.3 $5.9 $2.2 52 1.7%

Levy $0.8 $62.7 $2.9 $66.4 $50.4 801 6.8%

Madison $0.0 $15.6 $0.7 $16.3 $13.6 202 3.3%

Marion $3.0 $394.1 $28.9 $426.0 $510.9 7,549 5.3%

Suwannee $0.0 $54.5 $1.7 $56.2 $35.7 583 3.5%

Taylor $132.8 $18.5 $1.0 $152.2 $107.9 1,098 14.8%

Union $0.0 $9.4 $0.4 $9.8 $8.7 161 3.3%

Total $166.3 $1,090.2 $94.4 $1,350.9 $1,433.3 19,074 4.7%

74

2017 Update



and salaries. Earnings are therefore a proxy economic impact measure, which are inclusive of more than simply income. The figure below

benchmarks the total share of the North Central regional income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the State of Florida and

the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal income – about .75% - in North Central Florida

than at the state and national levels. This trend is expected to remain stable through 2025.

Figure 19. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the North Central Region

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75




the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For the North Central Florida Region, military employees in 1980

had earnings which totaled 50% of the North Central Florida workforce’s average earnings level. This figure was 114% for the State of Florida and

87% for the US as a whole. By 2016, the North Central Florida earnings figure had risen to 105%. State comparative earnings ticked up to 157%,

and for the US as a whole, the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 20. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the North Central Region

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76

2017 Update


Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment

The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for the North Central Florida Region against the State of Florida

and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 0.7% of North Central Florida employment, nearly 3% of Florida employment,

and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.5%, 1% and 1% respectively. These data indicate that the military does not directly

contribute to as large a share of regional employment as it once did.

Figure 21. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the North Central Region

0.0%

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77



Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in the North Central Florida Region against the 1980 total. For example, military

employment in 1985 was 129% of the 1980 total. By 2010, the military had risen to 148% of its 1980 size. Overall, we note that military

employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has increased in the region, with military employment in 2016 standing at approximately 140% of its 1980

level. However, military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its 1980 totals, and, at the state level, it is also 81%. This trend is

expected to remain stable through 2025.

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Figure 22. Total Military employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the North Central Region

78

2017 Update






Table 16. Demographic Estimates, North Central Florida Region


Population in 2007 856,487





Income





79







the manufacturing industry, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected over

the next decade.

Figure 23. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – North Central Florida Region

$0

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80

2017 Update


Northeast Florida Region

Northeast Florida Regional Summary The Northeast Florida Region includes Baker, Clay, Duval, Flagler, Nassau,

Putnam, and St. Johns Counties. Defense activities play a substantial role in

the regional economy, injecting over $5.2 billion in spending into the region

in 2016. Military spending, summed with the National Guard and the Coast

Guard, totals to the Combined Direct Expenditure estimates as indicated in

Table 17. Transfer payments accounted for the largest share at $2.1 billion

(41%) of the $5.2 billion total. Salaries accounted for $1.7 billion (32%), and

procurement accounted for $1.4 billion (27%).

Table 17. Northeast Region: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures



Salaries $1,690.0

Transfers $2,130.1


27%

32%

41%

Procurement

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 24 . Northeast Region: Distribution of Direct Defense

Expenditures

81



Table 18. Northeast Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $12,299.9 $13,150.1 $13,551.9 $13,356.5 $12,886.5








Government $434.6 $557.1 $640.4 $683.0 $703.3

Exports $9,309.7 $9,269.9 $9,303.9 $9,270.9 $9,215.5



Overall, defense activities yielded 115,965 jobs in the Northeast Florida Region in 2016 and just over $12.3 billion in total Gross Regional Product

(GRP - total value of all goods and services produced in the region). The military therefore accounted for approximately 14.3% (Table 20) of all

economic activity in the region. The impact of defense activities on the region’s GRP is forecast to increase through 2020 to $12.9 billion; however,

employment is projected to decline slightly to 114,971. Because increases to GRP are minimal $600 million, the decline in overall employment is

attributed to productive gains in the region.

Direct defense expenditures expended in the region generated additional employment, wages, consumption spending, and investment with total

impacts indicated in the table above. The impact categories are defined as follows:

82

2017 Update


Total Sales represents the total value of all goods and services sold as a result of military activities. This includes direct spending, wages,

transfer payments plus spending associated with multiplier effects as initial receipts are re-spent. It incorporates the value of goods and

services produced and sold in the region, imports into the region, and exports from the region.


Total Consumption consists of total purchases across the economy to include food, housing, transportation, medical care, computers,

furniture, etc.

Investment expenditures include residential and non-residential real estate as well as investment in producers’ durable equipment and

business inventories.

Government revenues include state and local government spending that occurs as a result of the combined activities that are modeled.

Gross Regional Product is the sum of consumption, investment, government revenues, and exports less imports. It represents the total


83



Table 19. Northeast Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Employment $7,672.8 63,424 $996.7 8,423 $173.2 1,912 $8,842.7 73,759

Procurement $1,771.8 16,748 $31.2 299 $2.7 30 $1,805.7 17,077

Transfers $1,668.4 24,874 $4.4 54 $18.2 201 $1,691.0 25,129

Totals $11,113.1 105,046 $1,032.2 8,776 $194.1 2,143 $12,339.4 115,965



and wages), and transfers for the military, National Guard, and Coast Guard for 2016. The GRP impacts (in 2016 US Dollars) are displayed next to

jobs estimates. The total impacts across all categories are displayed in the bottom right-hand corner. As the data indicate, federal military

employment generate the most jobs in the region (73,759), followed by transfer payments at 25,000, and procurement contracts at just over

17,000. The data in Table 20 (next page) display combined expenditures across the three categories for each county followed by the economic

impacts in terms of GRP and Employment. As the data show, the military accounts for about 16.1% of all economic output in Duval County, which

equates to nearly 95,000 jobs. This is followed by Clay County and Flagler County.

84

2017 Update


Table 20. Northeast Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016

Millions USD

County

Model Inputs –


Model Outputs –

Combined Impacts



Baker $0.0 $21.3 $1.0 $22.4 $23.5 421 4.6%

Clay $40.4 $466.6 $178.1 $685.2 $634.0 9,317 13.1%

Duval $1,217.0 $1,136.6 $1,476.2 $3,829.8 $10,971.8 94,886 16.1%

Flagler $16.8 $137.8 $7.5 $162.1 $129.0 1,765 6.7%

Nassau $0.5 $93.9 $3.1 $97.4 $101.8 1,566 4.6%

Putnam $0.5 $87.3 $4.5 $92.3 $84.4 1,122 5.2%

St. Johns $121.9 $186.5 $19.6 $328.0 $394.8 6,890 5.8%

Total $1,396.9 $2,130.1 $1,690.0 $5,217.1 $12,339.4 115,964 14.3%

85



Military Share of Total Earnings Earnings account for the majority of personal income and include wage and salary disbursements, proprietors’ income, and supplements to

wages and salaries. Earnings are therefore a proxy economic impact measure, which are inclusive of more than simply income. The figure above

benchmarks the total share of the Northeast Florida regional income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the State of

Florida and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a larger share of personal income in Northeast Florida than at the

state and national levels, although, this has declined over the past few decades.

Figure 25. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northeast Florida Region

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86

2017 Update


Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings The figure below displays the ratio of average military earnings per military worker to average earnings per worker. It thus allows us to

benchmark the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For the Northeast Florida Region, military employees

in 1980 had earnings which totaled 118% of the Northeast Florida workforce’s average earnings level. This figure was 114% for the State of

Florida and 87% for the US as a whole. By 2016, the Northeast Florida earnings figure had risen to 169%. State comparative earnings ticked up to

157%, and for the US as a whole, the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 26. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northeast Florida Region

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87



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for the Northeast Florida Region against the State of Florida

and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 8% of Northeast Florida employment, nearly 3% of Florida employment, and

2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to less than 2%, 1%, and 1%, respectively. These data indicate that the military does not

directly contribute to as large a share of regional employment as it once did.

Figure 27.Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northeast Florida Region

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88

2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure above benchmarks the size of military employment in the Northeast Florida Region against the 1980 total. For example, military

employment in 1985 was 120% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010, the military had shrunk to 60% of its 1980 size. Overall, we note that

military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its 1980

totals, while at the state level, it is also approximately 81%. For the Northeast Florida Region, military employment in 2016 stands at

approximately 48% of its 1980 level.

Figure 28. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Northeast Florida Region

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Table 21. Demographic Estimates, Northeast Florida Region







Income





90

2017 Update




the information, government, and financial activities sectors are the region’s highest earners, with government employing the most workers. The


the manufacturing industry, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected over

the next decade.

Figure 29. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Northeast Florida Region

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91



East Central Florida Region

East Central Florida Region Summary The East Central Florida Region includes Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola,

Seminole, Sumter, and Volusia Counties. Defense activities play a sizeable role

in the regional economy primarily—on the direct side—as a function of

procurement expenditures in the region. Military spending, summed with the

National Guard and the Coast Guard, totals to the Combined Direct

Expenditure estimates as indicated in Table 22. Procurement spending

accounted for the largest share at 64% or roughly $7.4 Billion of the $11.7

billion total. Salaries accounted for 5%, and transfers accounted for 31%.

Table 22. East Central Region: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures



Salaries $577.4

Transfers $3,640.9

Total Combined Direct

Expenditures $11,697.0

64%5%

31% Procurement

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 30. East Central Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Expenditures

92

2017 Update


Table 23. East Central Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $26,136.6 $26,471.8 $27,058.0 $27,147.8 $26,814.5






Producer's Durable Equipment $398.5 $692.9 $906.0 $1,061.0 $1,178.0


Government $572.5 $866.1 $1,048.4 $1,149.1 $1,202.4

Exports $14,887.9 $14,124.5 $14,103.6 $14,193.7 $14,195.2



Overall, defense activities accounted for 166,406 jobs in the East Central Florida Region in 2016 and nearly $17.4 billion in total Gross Regional

Product (GRP - total value of all goods and services produced in the region). The military therefore accounted for approximately 9.1% (Table 25)

of all economic activity in the region. The total impact of defense activities on the regional economy is forecast to grow through 2020 to $18.2

billion in GRP with employment declining slightly to just under 165,000.



93








furniture, etc.

Investment expenditures include residential and non-residential real estate as well as investment in producers durable equipment and





94

2017 Update


Table 24. East Central Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD


GRP Jobs GRP Jobs GRP Jobs GRP Jobs

Employment $4,297.9 31,532 $412.3 3,835 $113.6 1,226 $4,823.8 36,593

Procurement $8,387.0 79,624 $0.0 0 $8.2 89 $8,395.2 79,713

Transfers $4,143.2 49,739 $0.0 0 $33.4 361 $4,176.6 50,099

Totals $16,828.1 160,895 $412.3 3,835 $155.2 1,676 $17,395.6 166,406


Regional Impacts by Type The data in the table above display a 4x4 matrix of the impacts by type for 2016. This includes procurement, federal military employment

(salaries and wages), and transfers for the military, National Guard, and Coast Guard. The GRP impacts (in 2016 US Dollars) are displayed next to

the jobs impacts. The total impacts across all categories are displayed in the bottom right-hand corner. As the data show, military procurement

spending flows generate the most jobs in the region (79,713), followed by transfers at 50,000, while federal military employment account for

about 36,500. The data in Table 25 (on the following page) display combined expenditures across the three categories for each county followed

by the economic impacts in terms of GRP and Employment. The military accounts for 21.5% of all economic activity in Brevard County - a total of

49,568 jobs.

95



Table 25. East Central Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016

Millions USD

County

Model Inputs –


Model Outputs –

Combined Impacts



Brevard $2,995.9 $992.8 $244.9 $4,233.5 $5,267.1 49,568 21.5%

Lake $7.1 $414.9 $13.8 $435.8 $505.4 7,766 5.7%

Orange $4,356.1 $963.4 $115.7 $5,435.2 $8,756.9 74,581 8.4%

Osceola $1.3 $276.7 $12.2 $290.2 $479.7 5,875 4.6%

Seminole $77.8 $316.0 $161.0 $554.9 $1,403.4 15,969 6.3%

Sumter $3.7 $137.0 $4.0 $144.7 $135.1 1,743 5.1%

Volusia $36.7 $540.0 $25.7 $602.5 $848.1 10,906 4.9%

Total $7,478.7 $3,640.9 $577.4 $11,697.0 $17,395.6 166,406 9.1%

96

2017 Update




benchmarks the total share of the East Central Florida regional income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the State of

Florida and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal income in East Central Florida

than at the state and national levels.

Figure 31. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the East Central Florida Region

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benchmark the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For the East Central Florida Region, military

employees in 1980 had earnings which totaled 109% of the East Central Florida workforce’s average earnings level. This figure was 114% for the

State of Florida and 87% for the US as a whole. By 2016, the East Central Florida earnings figure had declined slightly to 106%. State comparative

earnings ticked up to 156%, and for the US, as a whole, the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 32. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the East Central Region

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98

2017 Update


Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for the East Central Florida Region against the State of

Florida and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 3% of East Central Florida employment, nearly 3% of Florida

employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.5%, 1%, and 1% respectively. These data indicate that the military

does not directly contribute to as large a share of regional employment as it once did. The slight downward trend is continue through 2025.

Figure 33. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the East Central Florida Region

0.0%

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United States

Florida

East Central Region

99



Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in the East Central Florida Region against the 1980 total. For example, military

employment in 1985 was 108% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010, the military had shrunk to 42% of its 1980 size. Overall, we note that

military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its 1980

totals, while at the state level, it is also approximately 81%. For the East Central Florida Region, military employment in 2016 stands at

approximately 41% of its 1980 level. This trend is expected to remain stable through 2025.

Figure 34. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the East Central Florida Region

0%

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United States

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East Central Region

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2017 Update



include the most recent quarter of data available at the time of publication. Between 2007 and 2017, the region’s population grew nearly 19%.

The region is expected to experience 29% growth through 2027. With respect to the annual wages, the region’s average annual wage is just over

$46,500, compared to the state average of $46,000.


Table 26. Demographic Estimates, East Central Florida Region







Income



Number of Households (2017) 1,469,577

101





the information and manufacturing sectors are the region’s highest earners, with trade, transportation, and utilities employing the most workers.

However, the education and health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 23%. This

industry, along with construction and financial activities, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth

of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 35. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – East Central Florida Region

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10-Year GrowthAgriculture, natural resources, and miningConstructionEducation and health servicesFinancial activitiesGovernmentInformationLeisure and hospitalityManufacturingOther servicesProfessional and business servicesTrade, transportation, and utilities


102

2017 Update


23%

12%

66%

Procurement

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 36. Tampa Bay Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

Tampa Bay Florida Region

Tampa Bay Florida Region Summary The Tampa Bay Florida Region includes Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota Counties.

Defense activities play a consequential role in the regional economy

generating nearly $7.5 billion in spending. Military spending,

summed with the National Guard and the Coast Guard, totals to the

Combined Direct Expenditure estimates as indicated in Table 27.

Transfer payments accounted for the largest share at 66% or roughly

$4.9 billion of the $7.5 billion total. Salaries accounted for 12%, and

procurement accounted for 23%.

Table 27. Tampa Bay Region: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures



Salaries $868.1

Transfers $4,940.2


103



Table 28. Tampa Bay Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $21,189 $22,907 $23,909 $23,857 $23,320


Gross Regional Product $17,073 $18,394 $19,155 $19,186 $18,897

Total Consumption $10,838 $11,200 $11,843 $12,155 $12,365

Investment Residential $2,900 $4,082 $4,369 $4,109 $3,607

Investment Non-residential $652 $876 $978 $977 $920

Producer's Durable Equipment $378 $680 $908 $1,077 $1,205

Business Inventories $31 $36 $36 $34 $33

Government $589 $861 $1,040 $1,137 $1,188

Exports $11,203 $11,223 $11,337 $11,306 $11,194

Imports (subtract) $9,419 $10,565 $11,357 $11,609 $11,615

Totals may not sum due to rounding

Overall, defense activities accounted for about 163,071 jobs in the Tampa Bay Florida Region in 2016 and over $17 billion in total Gross Regional


of all economic activity in the region. The total impact of defense activities on the regional economy is forecast to increase. Employment impacts

are forecast to be 171,297 in 2020. This amounts to about 8,200 more jobs in the region by that time as a result of defense activities.



104

2017 Update







furniture, etc.






105



Table 29. Tampa Bay Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Employment $6,063.4 48,501 $832.6 6,856 $484.8 5,196 $7,380.8 60,552

Procurement $3,534.5 33,856 $0.0 0 $37.2 335 $3,571.8 34,191

Transfers $6,068.7 67,709 $0.0 0 $51.7 619 $6,120.5 68,329

Totals $15,666.7 150,066 $832.6 6,856 $573.7 6,149 $17,073.0 163,071




the job impacts. The total impacts across all categories are displayed in the bottom right-hand corner. As the data indicate, transfer payments

generate the most jobs in the region (68,329), followed by federal military employment with 60,500, and then procurement with 34,000. The data

in Table 30 (on following page) display combined expenditures across the three categories for each county followed by the economic impacts in

terms of GRP and Employment. As the data show, the military accounts for over 10% of all economic output in Hillsborough County, which equates

to 78,250 jobs. This is followed by Pinellas and Hernando counties.

106

2017 Update


Table 30. Tampa Bay Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016

(Millions USD)

County

Model Inputs –


Model Outputs –

Combined Impacts



Citrus $0.0 $206.2 $18.7 $224.9 $208.6 2,969 6.0%

Hernando $6.8 $233.5 $19.7 $260.1 $266.2 4,395 7.4%

Hillsborough $1,032.7 $1,638.9 $637.4 $3,308.9 $9,749.8 78,250 10.1%

Manatee $22.6 $281.4 $15.4 $319.4 $520.5 6,786 3.7%

Pasco $23.0 $575.1 $19.3 $617.4 $709.0 9,996 6.7%

Pinellas $596.7 $1,239.9 $112.5 $1,949.0 $4,066.1 40,887 7.5%

Polk $28.8 $479.1 $29.9 $537.7 $935.4 11,673 4.1%

Sarasota $14.7 $286.2 $15.2 $316.1 $617.5 8,112 3.2%

Total $1,725.3 $4,940.2 $868.1 $7,533.5 $17,073.0 163,071 7.6%

107





benchmarks the total share of the Tampa Bay regional income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the State of Florida and

the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal income in the Tampa Bay region than at the

state and national levels.

Figure 37. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Tampa Bay Florida Region

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United States

Florida

Tampa Bay Region

108

2017 Update



the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For the Tampa Bay Region, military employees in 1980 had earnings

which totaled 95% of the workforce’s average earnings level. This figure was 114% for the State of Florida and 87% for the US as a whole. By 2016,

the Tampa Bay region’s earnings figure had risen 147%. State comparative earnings ticked up to 157%, and for the US, as a whole, the relative

earnings ratio now stands at 120%. A slight upward trend is expected through 2025.

Figure 38. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Tampa Bay Florida Region

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United States

Florida

Tampa Bay Region

109



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for the Tampa Bay Region against the State of Florida and the

US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 1.25% of the Tampa Bay region’s employment, nearly 3% of Florida employment, and

2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.63%, .85%, and 1% respectively. These data indicate that the military does not directly


Figure 39. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Tampa Bay Florida Region

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Florida

Tampa Bay Region

110

2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in the Tampa Bay Region against the 1980 total. For example, military employment

in 1985 was 116% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010, the military had remained stable at 117% of its 1980 size. Overall, we note that military

employment has experienced volatility between 1980 and 2016; however, by 2016 it still remained 115% of 1980 totals. Indeed, military

employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its 1980 totals, while at the state level, it is also approximately 81%.

Figure 40. Total Military employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Tampa Bay Florida Region

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Tampa Bay Region

111




include the most recent quarter of data available at the time of publication. Between 2007 and 2017, the region’s population grew nearly 14%.

The region is expected to experience 18.6% growth through 2027. With respect to the annual wages, the region’s average annual wage is nearly

$45,000, compared to the state average of $46,000.


Table 31. Demographic Estimates, Tampa Bay Florida Region







Income




112

2017 Update




the information and financial activities sectors are the region’s highest earners, with trade, transportation, and utilities employing the most

workers. However, the education and health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at

19%. This industry, along with construction, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least

10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 41. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Tampa Bay Florida Region

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(15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Earn

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10-Year Growth

Agriculture, natural resources, and miningConstructionEducation and health servicesFinancial activitiesGovernmentInformationLeisure and hospitalityManufacturingOther servicesProfessional and business servicesTrade, transportation, and utilities


113



South Central Florida Region

South Central Florida Region Summary The South Central Florida Region includes DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry,

Highlands, and Okeechobee Counties. Defense activities play a role in the

regional economy, injecting over $240 million in spending into the region in

2016. Military spending, summed with the National Guard and the Coast

Guard, totals to the Combined Direct Expenditure estimates as indicated in

Table 32. Transfer payments accounted for the largest share at 76% or roughly

$185 million of the $243 million total. Salaries accounted for 5% ($13M), and

procurement accounted for 19% ($45M).

Table 32. South Central Region Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $45.2

Salaries $13.0

Transfers $184.9

Total Combined Direct

Expenditures $243.1

19%

5%

76%

Procurement

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 42. South Central Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

114

2017 Update


Table 33. South Central Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $261.3 $288.5 $302.8 $302.5 $296.2


Gross Regional Product $210.4 $231.8 $243.7 $245.1 $242.2

Total Consumption $238.7 $243.9 $256.9 $265.3 $273.5





Government $8.8 $14.2 $17.6 $19.3 $20.2

Exports $148.1 $158.1 $164.6 $164.2 $160.6

Imports (subtract) $273.0 $309.6 $333.7 $340.1 $339.7


Overall, defense activities accounted for 3,325 jobs in the South Central Region in 2016 and $210 million in total Gross Regional Product (GRP -

total value of all goods and services produced in the region). The military therefore accounted for approximately 3.1% (Table 35) of all economic

activity in the region. The total impact of defense activities on the regional economy is forecast to grow. Employment impacts are forecast to be

3,517 in 2020. This amounts to about 200 more jobs in the region by that time as a result of defense activities.



115








furniture, etc.






116

2017 Update


Table 34. South Central Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Employment $60.6 962 $7.3 96 $1.8 30 $69.7 1,088

Procurement $40.4 642 $0.1 1 $0.1 2 $40.6 646

Transfers $99.4 1,579 $0.0 0 $0.7 11 $100.1 1,591

Totals $200.4 3,184 $7.4 97 $2.7 44 $210.4 3,325



and wages), and transfers for the military, National Guard, and Coast Guard. The GRP impacts (in 2016 US Dollars) are displayed next to the jobs

impacts. The total impacts across all categories are displayed in the bottom right-hand corner. As the data indicate, transfer payments generate

the most jobs in the region (1,591), followed by federal military employment with just over 1,000 and then procurement with 646 jobs. The data

in Table 35 (on the following page) display combined expenditures across the three categories for each county followed by the economic impacts

in terms of GRP and Employment. As the data show, the military accounts for over between 2% and 4.5% of each county’s economy.

117



Table 35. South Central Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016

(Millions USD)

County

Model Inputs –


Model Outputs –

Combined Impacts



DeSoto $0.4 $14.8 $1.3 $16.5 $14.5 263 1.9%

Glades $18.9 $13.4 $0.6 $32.8 $11.0 271 4.5%

Hardee $0.0 $11.0 $1.0 $12.0 $21.9 235 2.8%

Hendry $7.0 $16.9 $2.6 $26.5 $31.1 469 2.1%

Highlands $8.5 $97.4 $6.0 $111.9 $94.6 1,498 3.9%

Okeechobee $10.5 $31.4 $1.5 $43.4 $37.4 587 3.3%

Total $45.2 $184.9 $13.0 $243.1 $210.4 3,325 3.1%

118

2017 Update




benchmarks the total share of the South Central regional income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the State of Florida and

the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal income in South Central Florida than at the


Figure 43. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the South Central Florida Region

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United States

Florida


119




the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For the South Central Region, military employees in 1980 had

earnings which totaled 62% of the region’s average earnings level. This figure was 114% for the State of Florida and 87% for the US as a whole. By

2016, the South Central Florida’s earnings figure had risen to 98%. State comparative earnings ticked up to 158%, and for the US, as a whole, the

relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 44. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the South Central Region

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120

2017 Update


Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for the South Central Region against the State of Florida and

the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 1% of South Central Florida employment, 2.5% of Florida employment, and 2% of

US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.5%, .85%, and 1%, respectively. These data indicate that the military does not directly


Figure 45. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the South Central Region

0.0%

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121



Change in Military Employment The figure above benchmarks the size of military employment in the South Central Region against the 1980 total. For example, military employment

in 1985 was 139% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010, the military had shrunk to 99% of its 1980 size. Overall, we note that military employment,

relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its 1980 totals, while at the state

level, it is also approximately 81%. For the South Central Region, military employment in 2016 stands at approximately 92% of its 1980 level.

Figure 46. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the South Central Florida Region

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2017 Update



include the most recent quarter of data available at the time of publication. Between 2007 and 2017, the region’s population grew at just over

3%. The region is expected to experience nearly 10% growth through 2027. With respect to the annual wages, the region’s average annual wage

is approximately $30,500, compared to the state average of $46,000.

Table 36. Demographic Estimates, South Central Florida Region







Income





123





the information and manufacturing sectors are the region’s highest earners, with agriculture, natural resources, and mining employing the most

workers. However, the construction industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 24%. This industry,

along with manufacturing and education and health services, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive

growth of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 47. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – South Central Florida Region

$0

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(20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%Ea

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Construction



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Other services




124

2017 Update


Southeast Florida Region

Southeast Florida Region Summary The Southeast Florida Region includes Broward, Miami- Dade, Indian River,

Martin, Monroe, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Counties. Defense activities play

a significant role in the regional economy, injecting about $4.6 billion in

spending into Southeast Florida in 2016. Military spending, summed with the

National Guard and the Coast Guard, totals to the Combined Direct

Expenditure estimates as indicated in Table 37. Transfer payments accounted

for the largest share at 62% or roughly $2.8 billion of the $4.6 billion total.

Salaries accounted for 14% ($650M), and procurement accounted for 24%

($1B).

Table 37. Southeast Region: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures



Salaries $648.2

Transfers $2,822.9


Figure 48. Southeast Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

24%

14%62%

Procurement

Salaries

Transfers

125




Overall, defense activities accounted for 127,832 jobs in the Southeast Region in 2016 and nearly $12.5 billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP

- total value of all goods and services produced in the region). The military therefore accounted for approximately 3.3% (Table 40) of all economic

activity in the region. The total impact of defense activities on the regional economy is forecast to increase by just over $1 billion in 2020.

Employment impacts are forecast to be 130,625 in 2020, which amounts to about 3,000 more jobs in the region by that time as a result of defense

activities



Table 38. Southeast Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $14,448.9 $15,512.4 $16,256.8 $16,225.5 $15,877.7








Government $400.5 $572.7 $684.8 $740.7 $766.1

Exports $6,674.9 $6,738.2 $6,860.2 $6,857.8 $6,794.8


126

2017 Update







furniture, etc.






127



Table 39. Southeast Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD

Spending Flow

Federal Military National Guard Coast Guard Total


Employment $5,563.4 49,019 $654.8 6,062 $908.9 9,563 $7,127.1 64,646

Procurement $1,733.8 17,842 $0.0 0 $61.4 646 $1,795.2 18,486

Transfers $3,502.2 44,273 $0.0 0 $25.0 427 $3,527.1 44,700

Totals $10,799.4 111,134 $654.8 6,062 $995.3 10,636 $12,449.5 127,832

Totals may not sum due to round.



the job impacts. The total impacts across all categories are displayed in the bottom right-hand corner. As the data indicate, federal military

employment for the military generate the most jobs in the region (64,646), followed by transfer payments with 44,700 and then procurement with

roughly 18,500. The data in Table 40 (on the following page) display combined expenditures across the three categories for each county followed

by the economic impacts in terms of GRP and Employment. As the data show, the military accounts for over 20% of all economic output in Monroe

County, which equates to 8,292 jobs. Defense activities constitutes between 2.7% and 4% of the remaining counties’ economies.

128

2017 Update


TABLE 40. SOUTHEAST REGION - DEFENSE IMPACTS BY COUNTY, 2016

MILLIONS USD

County

Model Inputs –


Model Outputs –

Combined Impacts



Broward $311.1 $754.1 $103.4 $1,168.6 $3,053.9 32,816 2.8%

Indian River $68.0 $129.5 $5.8 $203.2 $236.9 2,811 4.0%

Martin $62.3 $125.3 $10.0 $197.6 $255.7 3,528 3.6%

Miami-Dade $274.2 $725.1 $336.8 $1,336.1 $5,459.4 52,904 3.5%

Monroe $63.0 $85.1 $99.4 $247.5 $928.9 8,292 19.9%

Palm Beach $301.7 $751.4 $75.0 $1,128.1 $2,216.8 22,990 2.7%

St. Lucie $7.4 $252.3 $17.8 $277.5 $297.8 4,493 4.0%

Total $1,087.5 $2,822.9 $648.2 $4,558.6 $12,449.5 127,832 3.3%

129





benchmarks the total share of the Southeast Florida regional income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the State of Florida

and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal income in Southeast Florida than at the


Figure 49. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the Southeast Region

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the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For the Southeast Region, military employees in 1980 had earnings

which totaled 80% of the region’s average earnings level. This figure was 114% for the State of Florida and 87% for the US as a whole. By 2016,

Southeast Florida’s earnings figure had risen slightly to 100%. State comparative earnings ticked up to 158%, and for the US, as a whole, the relative

earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 50. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the Southeast Region

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Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for the Southeast Region against the State of Florida and the

US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 1% of the Southeast region’s employment, nearly 3% of Florida employment, and 2%

of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.5%, .85%, and 1% respectively. These data indicate that the military does not directly


Figure 51. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Southeast Region

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2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in the Southeast Region against the 1980 total. For example, military employment

in 1985 was 112% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010, the military had shrunk to 92% of its 1980 size. Overall, we note that military employment,

relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its 1980 totals, while at the state

level, it is also approximately 81%. For the East Central Florida Region, military employment in 2014 stands at approximately 41% of its 1980 level.

Figure 52. Total military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Southeast Region

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include the most recent quarter of data available at the time of publication. Between 2007 and 2017, the region’s population grew at 14%. The

region is expected to experience nearly 19% growth through 2027. With respect to the annual wages, the region’s average annual wage is

approximately $48,500, compared to the state average of $46,000.

Table 41. Demographic Estimates, Southeast Florida Region







Income





134

2017 Update




the information and financial activities sectors are the region’s highest earners, with trade, transportation, and utilities employing the most

workers. However, the education and health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at

20%. This industry, along with construction, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least

10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 53. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Southeast Florida Region

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135



Southwest Florida Region

Southwest Florida Region Summary The Southwest Florida Region includes Charlotte, Collier, and Lee

Counties. Defense activities play a role in the regional economy

primarily as a function of transfer payments to retirees, veterans, etc.

Military spending, summed with the National Guard and the Coast

Guard, totals to the Combined Direct Expenditure estimates as

indicated in Table 42. Transfer payments accounted for the largest

share at 81% or roughly $781 million of the $965 million total.

Salaries accounted for 13% ($125M), and procurement accounted for

6% ($59M).

Table 42. Southwest Region: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $59.0

Salaries $124.9

Transfers $780.7

Total Combined Direct Expenditures $964.6

6%

13%

81%

Procurement

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 54. Southwest Region: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

136

2017 Update



Overall, defense activities accounted for 23,625 jobs in the Southwest Florida Region in 2016 and just over $1.9 billion in total Gross Regional


of all economic activity in the region. The total impact of defense activities on the regional economy is forecast to increase slightly to $2.3 billion

in 2020. Employment impacts are forecast to be 25,896 in 2020. This amounts to about 2,000 more jobs in the region by that time as a result of

defense activities.



Table 43. Southwest Region: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $2,168.6 $2,515.4 $2,692.4 $2,691.0 $2,615.6








Government $64.4 $108.0 $137.8 $154.6 $163.4

Exports $715.8 $770.8 $787.0 $766.7 $730.9

Imports (subtract) $859.4 $1,041.8 $1,154.3 $1,179.3 $1,167.1

137








furniture, etc.






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2017 Update


Table 44. Southwest Region: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD

Spending Flow

Federal Military National Guard Coast Guard Total


Employment $985.0 10,841 $74.7 854 $30.9 379 $1,090.7 12,074

Procurement $117.9 1,444 $0.0 0 $2.0 24 $119.9 1,468

Transfers $715.4 9,988 $0.0 0 $7.8 95 $723.2 10,083

Totals $1,818.4 22,273 $74.7 854 $40.6 498 $1,933.7 23,625



and wages), and transfers for the military, National Guard, and Coast Guard. The GRP impacts (in 2016 US Dollars) are displayed next job impacts.

The total impacts across all categories are displayed in the bottom right-hand corner. As the data indicate, federal military employment generate

the most jobs in the region (12,074), followed by transfer payments at 10,100, and then procurement with 1,500 jobs. The data in Table 45 (on

the following page) display combined expenditures across the three categories for each county followed by the economic impacts in terms of GRP

and Employment. As the data show, the military accounts for between 2.8% and 4.5% of each counties’ respective economy.

139



Table 45. Southwest Region - Defense Impacts by County, 2016

Millions USD

County

Model Inputs –


Model Outputs –

Combined Impacts



Charlotte $7.3 $196.3 $7.3 $210.8 $192.4 3,037 4.3%

Collier $39.2 $160.6 $30.9 $230.7 $488.0 5,712 2.8%

Lee $12.5 $423.9 $86.7 $523.1 $1,253.4 14,878 4.5%

Total $59.0 $780.7 $124.9 $964.6 $1,933.7 23,625 3.9%

140

2017 Update




benchmarks the total share of the Southwest regional income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the State of Florida and

the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal income in Southwest Florida than at the state

and national levels.

Figure 55. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the Southwest Region

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141




the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For the Southwest Region, military employees in 1980 had earnings

which totaled 37% of the region’s average earnings level. This figure was 114% for the State of Florida and 87% for the US as a whole. By 2016, the

Southwest earnings figure had risen to 76%. State comparative earnings ticked up to 158%, and for the US, as a whole, the relative earnings ratio

now stands at 120%.

Figure 56. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and the Southwest Florida Region

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2017 Update


Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for the Southwest Region against the State of Florida and the

US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for .5% of the Southwest region’s employment, nearly 3% of Florida employment, and 2%

of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.5%, .85%, and 1%, respectively. These data indicate that the military does not directly


Figure 57. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Southwest Region

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Change in Military Employment The figure above benchmarks the size of military employment in the Southeast Region against the 1980 total. For example, military employment

in 1985 was 161% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010, the military had increased to 244% of its 1980 size. Overall, we note that military

employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has increased substantially. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its

1980 totals, while at the state level, it is also approximately 81%. For the Southwest Region, military employment in 2016 stands at approximately

253% of its 1980 level.

Figure 58. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and the Southwest Region

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is approximately $41,000, compared to the state average of $46,000.


Table 46. Demographic Estimates, Southwest Florida Region







Income




145





the information, financial activities, and government sectors are the region’s highest earners, with trade, transportation, and utilities employing

the most workers. However, the education and health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years –

growing at 20%. This industry, along with construction, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of

at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 59. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Southwest Florida Region

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146

2017 Update


County Analysis Overview In this section, we provided an analysis of the impacts of defense activities on

economies of counties that were heavily affected by defense activities. These

counties, for the most part, are home to military installations and/or

significantly affected by neighboring installations. Counties discussed in the

county analyses include:

Bay

Bradford

Brevard

Clay

Duval

Escambia

Highlands

Hillsborough

Miami-Dade

Monroe

Okaloosa

Orange

Pinellas

Polk

Santa Rosa

The county impact data are reported in sections that were arrayed in precisely the same fashion. We open each analysis with an overview of the

flow of defense-related spending, by type, into the county and included basic data about the counties and the installations located therein. The

expenditure data are inclusive of activities related to salaries and wages, procurement, and transfer payments for all federal military branches

(including civilians), the Coast Guard, and the National Guard (including state and federal spending). We present the economic impacts across

various measures that include Gross Regional Product (GRP), employment, sales, imports, exports, etc.

Following this, we look at the economic impacts of each type of spending activity to include procurement, federal employment (salaries and

wages), and transfer payments across the military, Coast Guard, and National Guard. This provides an overview of the types of spending flows, for

147



each county, that have the greatest impact. Each section also contains an overview of defense trends within the county over the past several

decades as well as projections going forward. This includes military employment as a share of total employment, military pay relative to all wages,

and trends in military employment. We then close with an overview of county-level demographic and economic conditions.

Table 47 (on the following page) present each of the counties included in the analysis. As the data here, and subsequent analyses, show, defense

activities affect county-level economies in very different ways. Okaloosa County, for example, received approximately $3.6 billion in direct military

spending in 2016. When modeled, the military impacts account for a 67% of total Gross Regional Product (GRP) in the county and over 72,000

jobs. Orange County, a prime beneficiary of procurement flows, received a $5.4 billion injection of defense related dollars in 2016. That equaled

8.4% of the county’s GRP and accounted for over 74,000 jobs.

As we note elsewhere, every county in the State of Florida is affected by defense-related activities regardless of whether major installations are

located in the county. We outline the impacts for counties that are heavily affected by defense activities here. We capture approximately 80% of

the total impact of defense activities on the Florida economy within the fifteen county analyses that we present here. Those counties are

responsible for about $68 billion of the $85 billion total impact, and they account for over 593,000 of the total 801,747 jobs generated.

Naturally, those impacts are generated in very different ways. Orange County’s defense economy is almost totally procurement based. Other

counties, such as Okaloosa, strike a finer balance—although direct employment of federal and civilian workers by DoD drives the bulk of the impact

in that county. Those data, and a holistic consideration of the overall impacts, demonstrate that Florida’s county economies have relationships

with different facets of defense activities, the nuances of which only appear as the data are parsed out at the regional and county levels. These

data conclusively demonstrate that Florida’s defense economy is about far more than a DoD personnel presence in the state.

148

2017 Update


Table 47. Economic Impacts of Select Counties, 2016 Millions USD

County Direct Defense Spending GRP Employment Percent GDP

Bay $1,090.7 $2,527.8 22,720 25.2%

Bradford $51.1 $26.8 537 4.5%

Brevard $4,233.5 $5,267.1 49,568 21.5%

Clay $685.2 $634.0 9,317 13.1%

Duval $3,829.8 $10,971.8 94,886 16.1%

Escambia $2,191.4 $7,614.4 60,589 43.2%

Highlands $111.9 $94.6 1,498 3.9%

Hillsborough $3,308.9 $9,749.8 78,250 10.1%

Miami-Dade $1,336.1 $5,459.4 52,904 3.5%

Monroe $247.5 $928.9 8,292 19.9%

Okaloosa $3,630.8 $9,739.5 72,097 67.4%

Orange $5,435.2 $8,756.9 74,581 8.4%

Pinellas $1,949.0 $4,066.1 40,887 7.5%

Polk $537.7 $935.4 11,673 4.1%

Santa Rosa $520.9 $1,438.5 15,826 36.3%

State of Florida $39,570.4 $84,939.5 801,747 9.2%

149



Bay County

Bay County Summary Location: Northwest Florida Region

Home to: Naval Support Activity

Panama City

Tyndall Air Force Base

Naval Support Activity Panama City’s mission is to provide research,

development, test and evaluation, and in service support for expeditionary,

amphibious warfare, diving, maritime special operations, and mine warfare.

Tyndall Air Force Base is the home of the 325th Fighter Wing, which

conducts advanced training for F-22 pilots, maintenance personnel, air

traffic and weapon controllers, and F-22 specific intelligence personnel.

Economic Impact Estimates Defense activities play a substantial role in the Bay County economy. Military

spending, summed with the National Guard and the Coast Guard, totals to

the Combined Direct Expenditure estimates presented in Table 48.

Procurement accounted for the largest share at 37% or roughly $401 million

of the $1.09 billion total. Salaries accounted for 30%, and transfers

accounted for 33%.

Table 48. Bay County : Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $401.1

Salaries $330.4

Transfers $359.2


Figure 60. Bay County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

37%

30%

33% Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

150

2017 Update


Table 49. Bay County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $2,051.8 $2,136.7 $2,184.7 $2,160.5 $2,099.7








Government $81.9 $108.9 $126.3 $134.9 $139.2

Exports $2,542.6 $2,496.3 $2,495.8 $2,486.3 $2,476.4



Overall, the military accounted for over 22,700 jobs in Bay County in 2016 and about $2.5 Billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP - total value

of all goods and services produced in the region), which is roughly 25.2% of the county’s estimated 2016 Gross Regional Product. The total impact

for the county is forecast to continue to grow between 2016 and 2018. Defense activities are forecast to generate 23,829 jobs in 2018. This is over

1,100 job impact increase by 2018.



151








furniture, etc.






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2017 Update


Table 50. Bay County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Employment $1,431.3 12,225 $214.5 1,637 $20.0 197 $1,665.9 14,059

Procurement $514.9 4,416 $0.0 0 $91.3 895 $606.5 5,311

Transfers $252.7 3,322 $0.0 0 $2.4 28 $255.4 3,350

Totals $2,198.5 19,963 $214.5 1,637 $113.7 1,120 $2,527.8 22,720


Military Impacts by Type The data in Table 50 display the military impacts by type across the various categories. This includes impacts generated by procurement, federal

military (salaries and wages), and transfers and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the

table show, federal military, Coast Guard and National Guard employees have the highest impact—generating over 14,000 jobs across the county.

Procurement flows generate 5,311 jobs and transfer payments generate 3,350 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military (19,963)

with the Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate fewer than 2,800 jobs in the county.

153





benchmarks the total share of Bay County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Northwest Florida Region,

the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a substantially larger share of personal income in Bay

County than at the state and national levels and a slightly smaller share than the Northwest Florida Region, although the total percentage has

declined over the past few decades.

Figure 61. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and Bay County Florida

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2017 Update



the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Bay County, military employees in 1980 had earnings which

totaled 141% of the Bay County workforce’s average earnings level. For Northwest Florida, this figure was 145%, for Florida, 114%, and for the US

as a whole, it was 87%. By 2016, the Bay County earnings figure had risen to 202%, and Northwest Florida had risen to 212%. State comparative

earnings ticked up to 157%, and for the US as a whole, the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 62. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, and Bay County Florida

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Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for Bay County against the Northwest Florida Region, the state,

and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 11% of Bay County employment, 9% of Northwest Florida employment, nearly

3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 4%, 5%, 1%, and 1%, respectively. These data indicate

that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employment as it once did.

Figure 63. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and Bay County Florida

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156

2017 Update


Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980 The figure above benchmarks the size of military employment in Bay County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in 1985 for

Bay County was 111% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010 the military had shrunk to 82% of its 1980 size. Overall, we note that military

employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently 80% of its 1980 totals, while

at the state level, it is approximately 80%. For Bay County, military employment in 2016 stands at approximately 81% of its 1980 level once did.

Figure 64. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, and Bay County Florida

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United States

Florida

Northwest Region

Bay

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is approximately $43.500, compared to the state average of $46,000. The County’s median household income – a measure of income earned by

all members of a household - is just over $49,600 compared to the state’s median household income of $53,000.

Table 51. Demographic Estimates, Bay County







Income

Average County Wage (2017) $43,586


Median County Household Income (2017) $49,619

Median Florida Household Income (2017) $53,046


158

2017 Update




the manufacturing and government sectors are the region’s highest earners, with government also employing the most workers. However, the

agriculture, natural resources, and mining industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 30%. The

education and health services, government, and manufacturing industries are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with

positive growth of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 65. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Bay County

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Bradford County

Bradford County Summary Location: North Central Florida Region

Home to: Camp Blanding Joint Training

Center

Camp Blanding Joint Training Center (Bradford and Clay Counties) is the

primary training facility for the Florida Army National Guard and serves the

training needs for active Army and Reserve units as well as Army and Air

National Guard units. It is capable of billeting 3,500 soldiers and has over 50

live-fire ranges that can accommodate light weapons, including mortars and

artillery.

Economic Impact Estimates Military spending, summed with the National Guard and the Coast Guard,

totals to the Combined Direct Expenditure estimates as indicated in Table 52

to the right. Overall, defense activities injected just over $51.1 million into the

Bradford County economy in 2016. Approximately 80% of this total was in the

form of transfers.

Table 52. Bradford County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $9.5

Salaries $1.0

Transfers $40.7


19%

2%

80%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 66. Bradford County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

160

2017 Update


Table 53. Bradford County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $40.4 $44.6 $46.6 $46.6 $45.7

Total Employment 537 592 614 608 589







Government $2.6 $4.1 $5.1 $5.6 $6.0

Exports $20.7 $22.2 $23.0 $23.0 $22.4



Overall, the military accounted for 537 jobs in Bradford County, in 2016, and $26.8 million in total Gross Regional Product (GRP - total value of all

goods and services produced in the region), which is roughly 4.5% of the county’s total estimated 2016 Gross Regional Product (GRP). The total

impact for the county is forecast to increase somewhat between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate 589 jobs in 2020. This

is 52 more jobs than in 2016.



161








furniture, etc.






162

2017 Update


Table 54. Bradford County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $6.4 129 $0.1 1 $0.1 1 $6.5 131

Employment $5.0 101 $1.1 17 $0.2 3 $6.3 121

Transfers $14.0 284 $0.0 0 $0.1 1 $14.1 285

Totals $25.3 514 $1.2 18 $0.3 5 $26.8 537


Military Impacts by Type The data in Table 54 display the military impacts by type across the various categories. This includes impacts generated by procurement, federal

military employment (salaries and wages), and transfers) and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the

data in the table show, transfers paid to military, Coast Guard, and National Guard have the highest impact— generating 285 jobs across the

county. Procurement flows generate 131 jobs. Roughly 96% of the total jobs generated (514) were from the military and 3% from the National

Guard (18). The Coast Guard generated only 5 jobs in Bradford County, in 2016.

163





benchmarks the total share of Bradford County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the North Central

Florida Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military accounts for a larger share of income at the Florida and US level

than in Bradford County.

Figure 67. Military Share of the Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, North Central Florida Region, and Bradford County

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Florida


BRADFORD, FL

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2017 Update



benchmark the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Bradford County, military employees in 1980 had

earnings which totaled 35% of the Bradford County workforce’s average earnings level. For North Central Florida, this figure was 50%, for Florida

114%, and for the US as a whole it was 87%. By 2016 the Bradford County earnings figure had risen to 237%. North Central had risen to 104%.

State comparative earnings ticked up to 158%, and for the US as a whole the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 68. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, North Central Region, and Bradford County

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United States

Florida


BRADFORD, FL

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Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for Bradford County against the North Central Florida Region,

the state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 1% of Bradford County employment, 1% of North Central Florida

employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. In 2016, these figures are 0.5%, 0.5%, 1%, and 1% respectively. These data

indicate that the military directly contributes approximately the same share of county employment as in 1980.

Figure 69. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, North Central Region, Bradford County

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Florida


BRADFORD, FL

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2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Bradford County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in

1985 for Bradford County was 129% of the 1980 total. By 2010 the military had grown to 202% of its 1980 size in the county. Overall, we note

that military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently 81% of its 1980

totals, while at the state level, it is approximately 80%. For Bradford County, military employment in 2014 stands at approximately 90% of its

1980 level.

Figure 70. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, North Central Region, and Bradford County

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Florida


BRADFORD, FL

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include the most recent quarter of data available at the time of publication. Between 2007 and 2017, the region’s population contracted by nearly

6.5%. The region is expected to experience further decline in population of 3.3% through 2027. With respect to the annual wages (wages do not

include benefits provided by employer), the region’s average annual wage is approximately $26,500, compared to the state average of $46,000.

The County’s median household income – a measure of income earned by all members of a household - is nearly $46,500 compared to the state’s

median household income of $53,046.

Table 55. Demographic Estimates, Bradford County





Growth from 2007 to 2017 -6.4%

Growth from 2017 to 2027 -3.3%

Income






168

2017 Update




the manufacturing and agriculture, natural resources, and mining sectors are the region’s highest earners, with government employing the most

workers. However, the agriculture, natural resources, and mining industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years –

growing at 29%. This, as well as the education and health services, financial activities, and manufacturing industries are among the highest earners

(greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 71. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Bradford County

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169



Brevard County

Brevard County Summary Location: East Central Florida Region

Home to: Patrick Air Force Base

Cape Canaveral Air Force

Naval Ordinance Test Unit

Patrick Air Force Base is a major component for the Air Force Space

Command. It provides combat capabilities through launch, range, and

expeditionary operations. The host organization is the 45th Space Wing

Cape Canaveral Air Station is controlled by the 45th Space Wing and is

responsible for ensuring America’s safe and assured access to space. It co-

joins Kennedy Space Center and consists of 47 Launch complexes used to

launch Atlas and Delta rockets.

Economic Impact Estimates Defense activities play a significant role in the Brevard County economy.

Military spending, summed with the National Guard and the Coast Guard,

totals to the Combined Direct Expenditure estimates produced in Table 56.

Procurement accounted for the largest share at 71% or roughly $3.0 billion of

the $4.2 billion total. Salaries accounted for 6%, and transfers accounted for

23%.

Table 56. Brevard County : Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures



Salaries $244.9

Transfers $992.8


Figure 72. Brevard County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

71%

6%

23%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

170

2017 Update


Table 57. Brevard County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $7,228.4 $7,118.0 $7,162.1 $7,172.3 $7,104.0




Investment Residential $771.1 $1,076.4 $1,139.8 $1,065.3 $931.4




Government $171.1 $249.5 $294.8 $318.2 $330.3

Exports $5,114.8 $4,726.6 $4,649.5 $4,677.7 $4,708.3



Overall, the military accounted for over 47,000 jobs in Brevard County, in 2016, and just over $5.3 Billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP -

total value of all goods and services produced in the region), which is roughly 21.5% of the county’s estimated 2016 Gross Regional Product. The

total impact for the county is forecast to slightly decline between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate 48,280 jobs in 2020.

This amounts to nearly 1,200 less jobs in the county by 2020.

Direct defense expenditures expended in the county generated additional employment, wages, consumption spending, and investment with

total resulting impacts indicated in the table above. The impact categories are defined as follows

171








furniture, etc.






172

2017 Update


Table 58. Brevard County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $2,757.0 25,984 $0.0 0 $3.7 41 $2,760.7 26,025

Employment $1,162.4 10,955 $142.6 1,146 $64.4 710 $1,369.4 12,811

Transfers $1,127.2 10,624 $0.0 0 $9.7 107 $1,137.0 10,731

Totals $5,046.6 47,563 $142.6 1,146 $77.9 858 $5,267.1 49,568


Military Impacts by Type The data in Table 58 display the military impacts by type across the various categories. This includes impacts generated by procurement, salaries and wages, transfers and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show, procurement flows have the highest impact—generating over 26,000 jobs across the county. Salaries and wages generate 12,811 jobs and transfer payments generate 10,731 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military (47,563) with the Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate just over 2,000 jobs in the county.

Military Share of Total Earnings Earnings account for the majority of personal income and include wage and salary disbursements, proprietors’ income, and supplements to wages and salaries. Earnings are therefore a proxy economic impact measure, which are inclusive of more than simply income. The figure above

173



benchmarks the total share of Brevard County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the East Central Florida Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a larger share of personal income in Brevard County than at the regional, state, and national level, although this has declined over the past few decades.

Figure 73. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Brevard County

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United States

Florida

East Central Region

BREVARD, FL

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2017 Update


Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings The figure below displays the ratio of average earnings per military worker to average earnings per worker. It thus allows us to benchmark the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Brevard County, military employees in 1980 had earnings which totaled 117% of the Brevard County workforce’s average earnings level. For East Central Florida, this figure was 109%, for Florida 114%, and for the US as a whole it was 87%. By 2016 the Brevard County earnings figure had risen to 158%. East Central had risen to 106%. State comparative earnings ticked up to 158%, and for the US as a whole the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 74. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Brevard County

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United States

Florida

East Central Region

BREVARD, FL

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Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for Brevard County against the East Central Florida Region, the state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 3% of Brevard County employment, 3% of East Central Florida employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. In 2014, these same figures are 1%, 0.5%, 1%, and 1%, respectively. These data indicate that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employment as it once did.

Figure 75. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Brevard County

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United States

Florida

East Central Region

BREVARD, FL

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2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure above benchmarks the size of military employment in Brevard County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in 1985 for Brevard County was 111% of the 1980 total. However, by 2016, the military had shrunk to 63% of its 1980 size. Overall, we note that military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently 79% of its 1980 totals, while at the state level, it is approximately 79%.

Figure 76. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Brevard County

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Florida

East Central Region

BREVARD, FL

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include the most recent quarter of data available at the time of publication. Between 2007 and 2017, the region’s population grew just over 9%.

The region is expected to experience continuing growth in population of nearly 16% through 2027. With respect to the annual wages (wages do

not include benefits provided by employer), the region’s average annual wage is approximately $44,500, compared to the state average of $46,000.

The County’s median household income – a measure of income earned by all members of a household - is just over $52,000 compared to $53,046.

Table 59. Demographic Estimates, Brevard County







Income






178

2017 Update




the manufacturing, government, and information sectors are the region’s highest earners, with education and health services employing the most

workers. This industry is also projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 20%. This, and the construction

industry, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 77. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Brevard County

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179



Clay County

Clay County Summary Location: North East Florida Region

Home to: Camp Blanding Joint Training

Center

Camp Blanding Joint Training Center (Bradford and Clay Counties) is the

primary military reservation and training base for the Florida National Guard.

The base is located approximately 25 miles south of Jacksonville, and is

composed of 73,000 acres of forest, lakes, and grassland. Camp Blanding

possesses billeting to accommodate more than 3,500 personnel and ranges

which can support training for small arms weapons, mortars, artillery, attack

helicopter gunnery, and close air support aircraft.

Economic Impact Estimates Military spending, summed with the National Guard and the Coast Guard,

totals to the Combined Direct Expenditure estimates as indicated in Table 60.

Transfers accounted for the largest direct share at 68% or roughly $467

million of the $685 million total. Salaries accounted for 26%, and procurement

accounted for 6%.

Table 60. Clay County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $40.4

Salaries $178.1

Transfers $466.6


6%

26%

68%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 78. Clay County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

180

2017 Update



Overall, the military accounted for 9,317 jobs in Clay County in 2016 and over $634 Million dollars in total Gross Regional Product (GRP - total

value of all goods and services produced in the region). This is roughly 13.1% of the county’s estimated 2016 Gross Regional Product. The total

impact for the county was forecast to grow between 2016 and 2019. Defense activities are forecast to generate 11,132 jobs in 2019. This

amounts to just over 1,800 new jobs by 2019.


total resulting impacts indicated in the table above. The impact categories are defined as follows:

Table 61. Clay County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $789.8 $930.3 $1,000.1 $1,002.3 $970.9



Total Consumption $986.3 $1,068.7 $1,159.3 $1,213.3 $1,250.2





Government $29.0 $45.8 $57.8 $65.0 $69.0

Exports $297.6 $300.6 $298.9 $288.0 $273.9

Imports (subtract) $992.9 $1,145.9 $1,251.5 $1,290.4 $1,296.2

181








furniture, etc.






182

2017 Update


Table 62. Clay County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $66.4 980 $0.0 0 $0.1 1 $66.4 981

Employment $245.2 3,621 $47.7 651 $5.0 78 $297.8 4,350

Transfers $268.1 3,959 $0.0 0 $1.7 27 $269.8 3,986

Totals $579.6 8,560 $47.7 651 $6.7 106 $634.0 9,317


Military Impacts by Type The data in Table 62 display the military impacts by type across the various categories. This includes impacts generated by procurement, salaries

and wages, transfers, and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show, salaries and

wages paid to military, Coast Guard, and National Guard employees have the highest impact—generating 4,350 jobs across the region.

Procurement flows generate 981 jobs, and transfer payments generate 3,986 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military (8,560)

with the Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate over 750 jobs.

183





benchmarks the total share of Clay County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Northeast Florida Region,

the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to slightly smaller share of personal income in Clay County

than at the state and national levels and a substantially smaller share than the Northeast Region, although this has gently increased over the past

few decades.

Figure 79. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Clay County

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Florida

Northeast Region

CLAY, FL

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2017 Update



the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Clay County, military employees in 1980 had earnings, which

totaled 36% of the Clay County workforce’s average earnings level. For Northeast Florida, this figure was 118%, for Florida 114%, and for the US

as a whole, it was 87%. By 2016 the Clay County earnings figure had risen to 93%. Northeast Florida had risen to 169%. State comparative earnings

ticked up to 158%, and for the US as a whole, the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 80. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Clay County

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United States

Florida

Northeast Region

CLAY, FL

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Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as ashore of total employment for Clay County against the Northeast Florida Region, the state,

and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 1% of Clay County employment, 8% of Northeast Florida employment, 3% of

Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. In 2016, these same figures are 0.5%, 2%, 1%, and 1%, respectively. These data indicate that the

military directly contributes approximately the same share of county employments in 1980.

Figure 81. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Clay County

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Florida

Northeast Region

CLAY, FL

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2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure above benchmarks the size of military employment in Clay County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in 1985

for Clay County was 147% of the 1980 total. By 2010 the military had grown to 248% of its 1980 size in the county. Overall, however, we note


totals, while at the state level, it is approximately 79%. For Clay County, military employment in 2016 stands at approximately 249% of its 1980

level.

Figure 82. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Clay County

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United States

Florida

Northeast Region

CLAY, FL

187





The region is expected to experience continuing growth in population of 18% through 2027. With respect to the annual wages (wages do not



Table 63. Demographic Estimates, Clay County







Income






188

2017 Update




the manufacturing, government, and information sectors are the region’s highest earners, with trade, transportation, and utilities employing the

most workers. The education and health services industry projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 29%.

This, along with the manufacturing and financial activities industries, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with

positive growth of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 83. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Clay County

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189



Duval County

Duval County Summary

Location: North East Florida Region

Home to: Naval Air Station Jacksonville

Naval Station Mayport

Marine Corps Blount Island

Naval Air Station Jacksonville is a multi-mission base hosting more than 100

tenant organizations and is the third largest naval installation in the US.

Naval Station Mayport is host to 83 tenant commands including 16 ships,

four helicopter squadrons and the Navy’s Fourth Fleet.

Marine Corps Blount Island plans, coordinates and executes the logistic

efforts necessary to support Maritime Prepositioning Ships squadrons.

Economic Impact Estimates As Table 64 shows, the county’s economy is a significant beneficiary of funds

flowing through as a result of defense activities – approximately $3.8 billion

in direct impacts in 2016 alone (National Guard + Coast Guard). Salaries

accounted for the largest share at 39% or roughly $1.5 billion of the $3.8

billion total. Transfers accounted for 30%, and procurement was 32%.

Table 64. Duval County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures



Salaries $1,476.2

Transfers $1,136.6


32%

39%

30%Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 84. Duval County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

190

2017 Update


Table 65. Duval County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $10,669.5 $11,204.7 $11,453.3 $11,255.1 $10,859.5








Government $359.8 $444.5 $500.8 $527.6 $539.4

Exports $8,791.2 $8,749.3 $8,790.2 $8,783.1 $8,760.3


Overall, the military accounted for almost 95,000 jobs in Duval County in 2016 and just about $11.0 billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP -

total value of all goods and services produced in the region). This is roughly 16.1% of the county’s estimated 2016 Gross Regional Product. The

total impact for the region is forecast to increase between 2016 and 2018. Defense activities are forecast to generate 91,254 jobs in 2020 which

is over 3,500 fewer jobs than 2016. At the same time, the gross product impacts are forecast to rise to over $11.3 billion by 2020.

Direct defense expenditures expended in the county generated additional employment, wages, consumption spending, and investment with total

resulting impacts indicated in the table above. The impact categories are defined as follows:

191








furniture, etc.






192

2017 Update


Table 66. Duval County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $1,629.6 14,149 $31.0 299 $2.4 25 $1,663.0 14,473

Employment $6,331.8 54,976 $871.0 6,806 $158.7 1,681 $7,361.6 63,463

Transfers $1,930.4 16,761 $4.0 54 $12.5 132 $1,946.9 16,947

Totals $9,891.9 85,886 $906.4 7,160 $173.5 1,838 $10,971.8 94,886



and wages, transfers, and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show, salaries and

wages paid to military, Coast Guard and National Guard employees have the highest impact—generating 63,463 jobs across the region.


with the Coast Guardant the National Guard combining to generate approximately 9,000 jobs in the county.

193





benchmarks the total share of Duval County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Northeast Florida

Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a substantially larger share of personal income in

Duval County than at the regional, state and national level, although this has declined over the past few decades.

Figure 85. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Duval County

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United States

Florida

Northeast Region

DUVAL, FL

194

2017 Update



benchmark the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Duval County, military employees in 1980 had

earnings, which totaled 114% of the Duval County workforce’s average earnings level. For Northeast Florida, this figure was 118%, for Florida

114%, and for the US as a whole it was 87%. By 2016 the Duval County earnings figure had risen to 166%. Northeast Florida had risen to 169%.

State comparative earnings ticked up to 158%, and for the US as a whole the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 86. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Duval County

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Florida

Northeast Region

DUVAL, FL

195



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for Duval County against the Northeast Florida Region, the

state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 10% of Duval County employment, 8% of Northeast Florida employment,

3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 2%, 2%, 1%, and 1%, respectively. These data indicate

that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employments it once did.

Figure 87. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Duval County

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Florida

Northeast Region

DUVAL, FL

196

2017 Update


Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980 The figure above benchmarks the size of military employment in Duval County against the 1980 total. For example military employment in 1985

for Duval County was 119%of the 1980 total. However, by 2010 the military had shrunk to 56% of its 1980 size, in the county. Overall, we note


totals, while at the state level, it is 81%. For Duval County, military employment in 2016 stands at approximately 44% of its 1980 level.

Figure 88. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northeast Region, and Duval County

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United States

Florida

Northeast Region

DUVAL, FL

197





region is expected to experience continuing growth in population of nearly 14.4% through 2027. With respect to the annual wages (wages do not



Table 67. Demographic Estimates, Duval County







Income






198

2017 Update




the financial activities and information sectors are the region’s highest earners, with trade, transportation, and utilities employing the most

workers. The education and health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 23%. This,

along with the construction industry, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10%

expected over the next decade.

Figure 89. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Duval County

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199



Escambia County

Escambia County Summary Location: Northwest Florida Region

Home to: Naval Air Station

Pensacola

Corry Station

Saufley Field

Naval Air Station Pensacola the cradle of Naval Aviation, mission, is

tasked with providing superior training support and a quality

environment to its more than 90 tenant commands.

Corry Station’s primary mission is to operate and administer assigned

schools that provide training to military and civilian personnel of the

Department of Defense and international military students.

Saufley Field is a multi-purpose facility hosting the Naval Education and

Program Management Support Activity, a Federal Prison Camp, and other

activities.

Economic Impact Estimates As Table 68 shows, the county’s economy is a significant beneficiary of

funds flowing through as a result of defense activities — roughly $2.2

billion in 2016. Transfers accounted for 29% or roughly $628 million of

the $2.2 billion total. Salaries accounted for 57.0%, and procurement

accounted for 14%.

Table 68. Escambia County : Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $309.0

Salaries $1,254.4

Transfers $628.0


14%

57%

29%Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 90. Escambia County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

200

2017 Update


Table 69. Escambia County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $4,389.5 $4,743.5 $4,886.5 $4,788.7 $4,599.3




Investment Residential $841.8 $1,179.7 $1,247.8 $1,154.6 $993.2




Government $268.2 $322.5 $359.2 $374.9 $380.9

Exports $7,698.6 $7,753.5 $7,811.4 $7,782.9 $7,749.6


Overall, the military accounted for over 60,500 jobs in Escambia County in 2016 and just over $7.6 Billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP -


total impact for the county is forecast to increase slightly between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate 64,178 jobs in 2018.

This amounts to over 3,500 more jobs in the county by 2018.



201








furniture, etc.






202

2017 Update


Table 70. Escambia County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $619.9 4,499 $0.0 0 $0.0 11 $619.9 4,510

Employment $5,890.2 45,970 $500.0 3,267 $54.4 630 $6,444.6 49,867

Transfers $546.9 6,400 $0.2 1 $3.0 45 $550.1 6,446

Totals $7,057.2 56,635 $500.1 3,268 $57.1 686 $7,614.4 60,589



and wages, transfers and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show, salaries and

wages paid to military, Coast Guard and National Guard employees have the highest impact—generating 49,867 jobs across the region.

Procurement flows generate 4,510 jobs, and transfer payments generate 6,446 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military (56,635)

with the Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate just over 3,900 jobs in the county.

203





benchmarks the total share of Escambia County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Northwest Florida

Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a substantially larger share of personal income in

Escambia County than at the regional, state, and national level.

Figure 91. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Escambia County

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United States

Florida

Northwest Region

Escambia

204

2017 Update


Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings The figure below displays the ratio of average earnings per military worker to average earnings per worker. It thus allows us to benchmark the

earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Escambia County, military employees in 1980 had earnings which

totaled 139% of the Escambia County workforce’s average earnings level. For Northwest Florida, this figure was 145%, for Florida 114%, and for

the US as a whole it was 87%. By 2016 the Escambia County earnings figure had risen to 198%. Northwest Florida had risen to 212%. State

comparative earnings ticked up to 158%, and for the US as a whole the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 92. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Escambia County

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United States

Florida

Northwest Region

Escambia

205



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as ashore of total employment for Escambia County against the Northwest Florida Region, the

state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 11% of Escambia County employment, 9% of Northwest Florida

employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. In 2016, these figures declined to 7%, 5%, 1%, and 1%, respectively. These

data indicate that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employments it once did.

Figure 93. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Escambia County

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Florida

Northwest Region

Escambia

206

2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Escambia County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in

1985 for Escambia County was 91% of the 1980 total. By 2010, the military had grown to 99% of its 1980 size, in the county. Overall, we note that

military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently 79% of its 1980 totals,

while at the state level, it is approximately 79%. For Escambia County, military employment in 2016 stands at approximately 98% of its 1980 level.

Figure 94. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Escambia County

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United States

Florida

Northwest Region

Escambia

207





The region is expected to experience continuing growth in population of 10.6% through 2027. With respect to annual wages (wages do not include

benefits provided by employer), the County’s average annual wage is approximately $51,000, compared to the state average of $46,000. The

County’s median household income – a measure of income earned by all members of a household – is just over $45,000 compared to $53,000.

Table 71. Demographic Estimates, Escambia County







Income






208

2017 Update




the manufacturing and information sectors are the region’s highest earners, with government employing the most workers. The financial activities

industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 27%. This, along with the education and health services

and manufacturing industries, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected


Figure 95. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Escambia County

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209



Highlands County

Highlands County Summary

Location: South Central Florida Region

Home to: Avon Park Air Force Range

Avon Park Air Force Range (Highlands and Polk Counties) is home to a

Deployed Unit Complex of the 23rd Wing detachment reporting to Moody

Air Force Base, Georgia. It provides a variety of air-to-ground ranges, and

targets in support of air and ground operations.

Economic Impact Estimates As Table 72 shows, the defense activities injected approximately $112 million

into the Highlands County economy in 2016. Transfer payments totaled

roughly $97.4 million, which is 87% of the total direct dollar flow to the

county. Salaries accounted for 5%, and procurement accounted for 8%.

Table 72. Highlands County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $8.5

Salaries $6.0

Transfers $97.4


8%5%

87%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 96. Highlands County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

210

2017 Update


Table 73. Highlands County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $108.6 $119.1 $125.2 $125.6 $123.9








Government $3.2 $5.2 $6.4 $7.0 $7.3

Exports $47.6 $49.2 $50.9 $50.8 $49.9


As the impact estimates indicate, the military accounted for almost 1,500 jobs in Highlands County in 2016 and around $94.6 Million in total Gross

Regional Product (GRP – total value of all goods and services produced in the region). This is roughly 3.9% of the county’s estimated 2016 Gross

Regional Product. The total impact for the region is forecast to increase slightly between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate

1,568 jobs in 2020. This amounts to about 70 more jobs in the county by 2020.



211








furniture, etc.






212

2017 Update


Table 74. Highlands County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Employment $10.9 173 $0.0 1 $0.1 1 $10.9 175

Procurement $30.1 479 $3.0 38 $0.5 9 $33.7 526

Transfers $49.8 791 $0.0 0 $0.4 7 $50.2 798

Totals $90.8 1,443 $2.9 38 $1.0 17 $94.6 1,498

Total may not sum due to rounding.


and wages, transfers and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show, transfer

payments have the highest impact—generating 798 jobs across the county. Salaries and wages paid to military, Coast Guard, and National Guard

employees generated 526 jobs, and procurement flows generated 175 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military (1,443) with the

Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate 55 jobs in the county.

213




wages and salaries. Earnings are therefore a proxy economic impact measure, which are inclusive of more than simply income. The figure below

benchmarks the total share of Highlands County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the South Central

Florida Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal

income in Highlands County than at the state and national levels and slightly larger share than the South Central Region. This share has

fluctuated over the past few decades, however.

Figure 97. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, South Central Region, and Highlands County

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United States

Florida


HIGHLANDS, FL

214

2017 Update


Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings The figure below benchmarks military employment as ashore of total employment for Highlands County against the South Central Florida

Region, the state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for about 2%of Highlands County employment, 1% of South

Central Florida employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.5%, 0.5%, 1%, and 1%,

respectively. These data indicate that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employment as it once did.

Figure 98. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, South Central Region, and Highlands County

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Florida


HIGHLANDS, FL

215



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as ashore of total employment for Highlands County against the South Central Florida

Region, the state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for about 2%of Highlands County employment, 1% of South

Central Florida employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2014, these figures declined to 0.5%, 0.5%, 1%, and 1%,


Figure 99. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, South Central Region, and Highlands County

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Florida


HIGHLANDS, FL

216

2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Highlands County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in

1985 for Highlands County was138% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010 the military had shrunk to 70% of its 1980 size, in the county. Overall,

we note that military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently 81% of

its 1980 totals, while at the state level, it is approximately 81%. For Highlands County, military employment in 2016 stands at approximately 65%

of its 1980 level.

Figure 100. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, South Central Region, and Highlands County

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Florida


HIGHLANDS, FL

217






by employer), the County’s average annual wage is approximately $30,000, compared to the state average of $46,000. The County’s median

household income – a measure of income earned by all members of a household – is just over 37,000 compared to Florida’s $53,000.

Table 75. Demographic Estimates, Highlands County







Income






218

2017 Update




the government, education and health services, and information sectors are the region’s highest earners, with education and health services

employing the most workers. This industry is also projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 23%. This, along

with the manufacturing industry, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected


Figure 101. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Highlands County

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219



Hillsborough County

Hillsborough County Summary

Location: Tampa Bay Region

Home to: MacDill Air Force Base

US Central Command

US Special Operations

MacDill Air Force Base host command is the 6th Air Mobility Wing

whose primary mission is airlift and aerial refueling. MacDill hosts US

Central Command and US Special Operations Command.

US Central Command is one of six geographically defined commands

within the DoD, and is responsible for US Security interests in 20 nations

in Northeast Africa, and Southwest and Central Asia.

US Special Operations Command’s primary mission is to disrupt,

defeat, and destroy terrorist networks that threaten US citizens and

interests worldwide.

Economic Impacts Estimates As Table 76 indicates, Hillsborough County is a prominent beneficiary

of defense activities receiving nearly $3.3 billion direct dollars in 2016.

Transfers accounted for the largest share at 50% or roughly $1.6 billion

of the $3.3 billion total. Salaries accounted for 19%, and procurement

accounted for 31%.

Table 76. Hillsborough County : Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures



Salaries $637.4

Transfers $1,638.9


31%

19%

50%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 102. Hillsborough County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

220

2017 Update


Table 77. Hillsborough County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $11,196.0 $11,822.7 $12,241.6 $12,171.3 $11,877.8








Government $355.1 $490.2 $579.4 $625.9 $649.3

Exports $7,339.7 $7,290.5 $7,342.6 $7,327.8 $7,281.0


Overall, defense activities accounted for 78,250 jobs in Hillsborough County in 2016, and just over $9.7 Billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP

- total value of all goods and services produced in the region), which is roughly 10.1% of the county’s 2016 Gross Regional Product. The total impact

for the region is forecast to remain roughly stable between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate 78,470 jobs in 2020. This

amounts to nearly 200 more jobs in the county by 2020.


resulting impacts indicated in the table above. The impact categories are defined as follows.

221








furniture, etc.






222

2017 Update


Table 78. Hillsborough County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Employment $2,371.7 19,169 $0.0 0 $14.5 136 $2,386.2 19,305

Procurement $3,734.8 30,186 $493.0 3,294 $73.7 691 $4,301.5 34,171

Transfers $3,043.4 24,598 $0.0 0 $18.7 175 $3,062.1 24,773

Totals $9,149.9 73,953 $493.0 3,294 $106.9 1,002 $9,749.8 78,250




wages paid to military, Coast Guard, and National Guard employees have the highest impact—generating 34,171 jobs across the county.

Procurement flows generate 19,305 jobs, and transfer payments generate 24,773 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military

(73,953) with the Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate roughly 4,300 jobs in the county.

223





benchmarks the total share of Hillsborough County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Tampa Bay

Florida Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly larger share of personal income

in Hillsborough County than at the regional, state, and national levels, although this has fluctuated over the past few decades.

Figure 103. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Hillsborough County

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2017 Update



benchmark the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Hillsborough County, military employees in 1980

had earnings which totaled 117% of the Hillsborough County workforce ‘average earnings level. For the Tampa Bay region of Florida, this figure

was 95%, for Florida 114%, and for the US it was 87%. By 2016, the Hillsborough County earnings figure had risen to 171%. The Tampa Bay

Region increased to 1470%, state comparative earnings increased to 158%, and the cumulative US relative earnings ratio is now 120%.

Figure 104. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Hillsborough County

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HILLSBOROUGH, FL

225



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for Hillsborough County against the Tampa Bay Region, the

state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for a little more than 2% of Hillsborough County employment, 1% of the

Tampa Bay Region employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. These figures in 2016 are all roughly 1%. These data

indicate that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employment as it once did.

Figure 105. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa By Region, and Hillsborough County

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Florida

Tampa Bay Region

HILLSBOROUGH, FL

226

2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Hillsborough County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment

in 1985 for Hillsborough County was 111% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010 the military had shrunk to 100% of its 1980 size in the county.

Overall, we note that military employment, relative to the1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is

currently 81% of its 1980 totals, while at the state level, it is also 81%. For Hillsborough County, military employment in 2016 stands at

approximately 100% of its 1980 level.

Figure 106. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Hillsborough County

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Tampa Bay Region

HILLSBOROUGH, FL

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include the most recent quarter of data available at the time of publication. Between 2007 and 2017, the region’s population grew at nearly 19%.

The region is expected to experience continuing growth of 20% through 2027. With respect to annual wages (wages do not include benefits

provided by employer), the County’s average annual wage is approximately $57,500, compared to the state average of $46,000. The County’s

median household income – a measure of income earned by all members of a household – is nearly $56,000 compared to Florida’s $53,000.

Table 79. Demographic Estimates, Hillsborough County







Income






228

2017 Update




the information and financial services sectors are the region’s highest earners, with trade, transportation, and utilities and professional/business

services employing the most workers. The education and health services industry is also projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next

10 years – growing at 20%. This, along with the construction and financial activities industries, are among the highest earners (greater than the

region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 107. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Hillsborough County

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229



Miami-Dade County

Miami-Dade County Summary Location: Southeast Florida Region

Home to: United States Southern

Command

Homestead Air Reserve

Base

United States Southern Command’s mission is to embrace the concept of

preventative defense through constructive engagement. The Command is

assigned the areas of Latin American south of Mexico, the water adjacent to

Central and South America and its 13 island nations, the Gulf of Mexico and

a portion of the Atlantic Ocean.

Homestead Air Reserve Base hosts the 482nd Fighter Wing of the Air Force

Reserve, whose mission is to provide a combat-ready unit capable of

worldwide deployment on short notice.

Economic Impact Estimates As Table 80 shows, the county’s economy is a significant beneficiary of funds

flowing through as a result of defense activities – over $1.3 billion in 2016.

Transfers accounted for roughly $725 million or 54% of the $1.3 billion total.

Salaries accounted for 25%, and procurement accounted for 21%

Table 80. Miami-Dade County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $274.2

Salaries $336.8

Transfers $725.1


21%

25%

54%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 108. Miami-Dade County Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

230

2017 Update


Table 81. Miami-Dade County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $5,776.6 $6,172.9 $6,489.4 $6,490.6 $6,369.1




Investment Residential $690.1 $958.2 $1,031.4 $974.5 $859.7




Government $164.2 $238.3 $289.8 $318.4 $334.5

Exports $2,913.8 $2,939.5 $2,972.8 $2,942.4 $2,890.0


Overall, the military accounted for over 52,900 jobs in Miami- Dade County in 2016 and just over $5.5 Billion in total Gross Regional Product

(GRP - total value of all goods and services produced in the region). This is roughly 3.5% of the county’s estimated 2016 Gross Regional Product.

The total impact for the county is forecast to grow rather slightly between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate 54,182

jobs in 2020. This amounts to 1,200 more jobs in the county by 2020. Total gross product impacts across that period are expected to rise by

approximately a half-billion dollars



231








furniture, etc.






232

2017 Update


Table 82. Miami-Dade County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $599.1 5,805 $0.0 0 $32.5 332 $631.5 6,137

Employment $2,421.2 23,462 $323.1 2,816 $541.2 5,536 $3,285.5 31,814

Transfers $1,529.4 14,820 $0.0 0 $13.0 133 $1,542.4 14,953

Totals $4,549.6 44,087 $323.1 2,816 $586.7 6,001 $5,459.4 52,904


Military Impacts by Type The data in Table 82 displays the military impacts by type across the various categories. This includes impacts generated by procurement,

salaries and wages, transfers and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show,

salaries and wages paid to military, Coast Guard and National Guard employees have the highest 2016 impact—generating nearly 32,000 jobs

across the county. Procurement flows generated 6,137 jobs and transfer payments generate 14,953 jobs. The bulk of these jobs, are generated

by the military (44,087), with the Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate nearly 9,000 jobs in the county.

233





benchmarks the total share of Miami-Dade County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Southeast

Florida Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal

income in Miami-Dade County than at the state and national levels and a slightly larger share than the Southeast Region, although this has

declined over the past few decades.

Figure 109. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County

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Florida

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2017 Update



benchmark the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Miami-Dade County, military employees in 1980

had earnings, which totaled 86% of the Miami-Dade County workforce’s average earnings level. For Southeast Florida, this figure was 80%, for

Florida 114%, and for the US, it was 87%. By 2016, the Miami-Dade County earnings figure had risen to 112%. Southeast Florida increased to

101%, state comparative earnings ticked up to 158%, and for the US as a whole the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 110. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County

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Florida

Southeast Region

MIAMI-DADE, FL

235



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as ashore of total employment for Miami-Dade County against the Southeast Florida Region,

the state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for about 1%of Miami-Dade County employment, 1% of Southeast

Florida employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures had a slight decline to 0.5%, 0.5%, 1%, and

1%, respectively. Despite the decline in proportional employment, these data indicate that the military directly contributes close to the same

share of county employment as in 1980.

Figure 111. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County

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Florida

Southeast Region

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2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Miami-Dade County against the 1980 total. So, for example, military

employment in 1985 for Miami-Dade County was 104% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010 the military had shrunk to 69% of its 1980 size in the

county. Overall, we note that military employment, relative to the1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is

currently 81% of its 1980 totals, while at the state level, it is also approximately 81%. For Miami-Dade County, military employment in 2016

stands at approximately 68% of its 1980 level.

Figure 112. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County

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include the most recent quarter of data available at the time of publication. Between 2007 and 2017, the region’s population grew at nearly 14%.

The region is expected to experience continuing growth of 13.5% through 2027. With respect to annual wages (wages do not include benefits

provided by employer), the County’s average annual wage is approximately $51,000, compared to the state average of $46,000. The County’s

median household income – a measure of income earned by all members of a household – is nearly $47,000 compared to Florida’s $53,000.

Table 83. Demographic Estimates, Miami-Dade County







Income






238

2017 Update




the information, financial activities, and government sectors are the region’s highest earners, with trade, transportation, and utilities employing

the most workers. The education and health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at

18%. This, along with the financial activities industries, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of

at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 113. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Miami-Dade County

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239



Monroe County Monroe County Summary

Location: Southeast Florida Region

Home to: Naval Air Station Key West

Naval Air Station Key West provides an extensive air-to-air training venue

for transient tactical aviation squadrons. It is home to the Joint Interagency

Task Force - South whose mission is to provide the necessary operations

for detection, monitoring and deterrence of drug smuggling operations.

Major tenants also include the Army Special Forces Underwater Operations

School.

Economic Impact Estimates As Table 84 shows, in 2016, defense activities injected over $248 million

directly into the Monroe County economy. Of this, 40% was in the form of

salaries and wages paid to military, National Guard, and Coast Guard

personnel. Procurement flows accounted for 25%, and transfers accounted

for 34%.

Table 84. Monroe County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $63.0

Salaries $99.4

Transfers $85.1


25%

40%

34% Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 114. Monroe County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

240

2017 Update


Table 85. Monroe County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $551.3 $589.3 $602.5 $586.2 $557.6








Government $45.8 $49.2 $51.7 $52.1 $51.7

Exports $913.7 $910.7 $912.2 $912.3 $914.1


Overall, the military accounted for 8,292 jobs in Monroe County in 2016 and $929 million in total Gross Regional Product (GRP - total value of all

goods and services produced in the region), which is roughly 20% of the county’s total estimated 2016 Gross Regional Product. The total impact

for Monroe County is forecast to remain stable between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate roughly 8,000 jobs in 2020—

nearly 300 less than 2016.



241








furniture, etc.






242

2017 Update


Table 86. Monroe County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $68.8 577 $0.0 0 $3.2 38 $72.0 615

Employment $546.2 4,583 $58.0 422 $163.4 1,920 $767.6 6,925

Transfers $87.5 734 $0.0 0 $1.5 18 $89.0 752

Totals $702.4 5,894 $58.3 422 $168.1 1,976 $928.9 8,292




wages paid to military, Coast Guard, and National Guard employees has the highest impact generating 6,925 jobs across the county.

Procurement flows generated 615 jobs, and transfer payments generate 752 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military (5,894)

with the Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate almost 2,400 jobs.

243





benchmarks the total share of Monroe County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Southeast Florida

Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a substantially larger share of personal income

in Monroe County than at the regional, state and national level, although this has declined over the past few decades.

Figure 115. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Miami-Dade County

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Florida

Southeast Region

MONROE, FL

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2017 Update



benchmark the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Monroe County, military employees in 1980 had

earnings which totaled 151% of the Monroe County workforce’s average earnings level. For Southeast Florida, this figure was 80%, for Florida

114%, and for the US as a whole it was 87%. By 2016, the Monroe County earnings figure had risen to 223%. Southeast Florida had risen to

101%. State comparative earnings ticked up to 158%, and for the US as awhile the relative earnings ratio now stands at 122%.

Figure 116. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Monroe County

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Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as ashore of total employment for Monroe County against the Southeast Florida Region, the

state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 8% of Monroe County employment, 1% of Southeast Florida

employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 2%, 0.5%, 1%, and 1%, respectively.

These data indicate that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employments it once did.

Figure 117. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Monroe County

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MONROE, FL

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2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Monroe County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in

1985 for Monroe County was 115%of the 1980 total. However, by 2010 the military had shrunk to 58% of its 1980 size in the county. Overall, we

note that military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently 81% of its

1980 totals, while at the state level, it is approximately 81%. For Monroe County, military employment, in 2016, stands at approximately 53% of

its 1980 level.

Figure 118. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Southeast Region, and Monroe County

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United States Florida Southeast Region MONROE, FL

247







household income – a measure of income earned by all members of a household – is just over $68,000 compared to Florida’s $53,000.

Table 87. Demographic Estimates, Monroe County







Income






248

2017 Update




the information and government sectors are the region’s highest earners, with leisure and hospitality employing the most workers. The

manufacturing industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 33%. This, along with the construction

industry, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 119. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Monroe County

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249



Okaloosa County

Okaloosa County Summary Location: Northwest Florida Region

Home to: Eglin Air Force Base

Hurlburt Field

Eglin Air Force Base hosts the 96th Test Wing and the 7th Special Forces

Group (Airborne) and is the largest military base in the US with 724 square

miles of land range. Eglin hosts the Joint Gulf Range Complex which is a key

training resource with tremendous capabilities and commitment to

partnering for joint training.

Hurlburt Field mission is to support the training and execution of worldwide

aviation special operations such as unconventional warfare, special

reconnaissance, counter proliferation, foreign internal defense, information

operations, psychological operations, civil affairs, and combating terrorism.

Economic Impact Estimates Defense activities play a significant role in the Okaloosa County economy.

Indeed, defense activities account for a higher share of economic output in

Okaloosa County than any other county in the State of Florida. As Table 88

shows, salaries accounted for the largest share of defense spending at 46% or

over $1.6 billion of the $3.6 billion total. Procurement accounted for 35% and

transfers accounted for 20%.

Table 88. Okaloosa County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures



Salaries $1,652.1

Transfers $724.3


35%

46%

20%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 120. Okaloosa County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

250

2017 Update


Table 89. Okaloosa County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $5,123.7 $5,380.3 $5,535.3 $5,506.3 $5,385.3








Government $204.9 $267.6 $310.1 $333.6 $347.0

Exports $11,104.8 $11,083.6 $11,151.3 $11,106.7 $11,078.2


Overall, the military accounted for over 72,000 jobs in Okaloosa County in 2016 and just over $9.7 billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP -

total value of all goods and services produced in the region), which is roughly 67.4% of the county’s estimated 2016 Gross Regional Product. The

total impact of the defense industry on the county’s economy is forecast to increase between 2016 and 2020. However, defense activities are

forecast to generate approximately 71,994 jobs in 2020 which is roughly 100 fewer jobs than in 2016.



251








furniture, etc.






252

2017 Update


Table 90. Okaloosa County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $1,520.5 11,429 $0.0 0 $1.0 11 $1,521.5 11,440

Employment $6,835.4 51,378 $641.2 3,676 $6.5 75 $7,483.1 55,129

Transfers $733.5 5,513 $0.0 0 $1.4 16 $734.9 5,529

Totals $9,089.4 68,320 $641.2 3,676 $8.9 102 $9,739.5 72,097




wages paid to military, Coast Guard, and National Guard employees have the highest impact—generating over 55,000 jobs across the region.

Procurement flows generate 11,440 jobs, and transfer payments generate 5,529 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military (68,320)

with the Coastguard and the National Guard combining to generate roughly 3,800 jobs in the county.

253





benchmarks the total share of Okaloosa County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Northwest Florida

Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a substantially larger share of personal income

in Okaloosa County than at the regional, state, and national levels, although this has declined over the past few decades.

Figure 121. Military Share of total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Region, and Okaloosa County

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2017 Update



the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Okaloosa County, military employees in 1980 had earnings

which totaled 140% of the Okaloosa County workforce’s average earnings level. For Northwest Florida, this figure was 145%, for Florida 114%, and

for the US as a whole, it was 87%. By 2016, the Okaloosa County earnings figure had risen to 195%. Northwest Florida had risen to 212%. State


Figure 122. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest region, and Okaloosa County

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Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as ashore of total employment for Okaloosa County against the Northwest Florida Region, the

state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 23% of Okaloosa County employment, 9% of Northwest Florida

employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 13%, 5%, 1%, and 1%, respectively. These

data indicate that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employment as it once did.

Figure 123. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Region, and Okaloosa County

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Okaloosa

256

2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Okaloosa County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in

1985 for Okaloosa County was 106% of the 1980 total. By 2010, the military had grown to 119% of its 1980 size in the county. Overall, we note

that military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its

1980 totals, while at the state level, it is approximately 81%. For Okaloosa County, military employment, in 2016, stands at approximately 134%

of its 1980 level.

Figure 124. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Region, and Okaloosa County

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Florida

Northwest Region

Okaloosa

257







household income – a measure of income earned by all members of a household – is nearly $61,000 compared to Florida’s $53,000.

Table 91. Demographic Estimates, Okaloosa County







Income






258

2017 Update





other services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 18%.5 Education and health services is

the only industry that has both high earners (greater than the region’s average) and positive growth of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 125. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Okaloosa County

5 According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the other services (expect public administration) sector is comprised of establishments engaged in providing service not specifically provided elsewhere in the NAICS. Establishments in this sector are primarily engage in activities, such as equipment and machinery repairing, promoting or administering religious activities, grant making, advocacy, and provide dry cleaning and laundry services, personal care services, death care services, pet care services, photofinishing services, temporary parking services, and dating services.

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259



Orange County

Orange County Summary Location: East Central Region

Home to: Naval Air Warfare Center

Training

Systems Division/Naval

Support Activity

Orlando/Team Orlando

NSA Orlando is a 40-acre facility located within the Central Florida Research

Park adjacent to the University of Central Florida. Naval Support Activity

Orlando's mission is to provide shore installation support services to all

tenant DoD agencies, enabling their mission accomplishment in a joint

services environment. Naval Support Activity Orlando also served as one of

the principal foundations of Orlando’s new Central Florida Research Park,

home to a wide variety of private industry, government, and academic

organizations, many of which specialize in high-tech research and

development programs, including modeling, simulation, and training,

collectively known as Team Orlando.

Economic Impact Estimates As Table 92 shows, the Orange County economy is a significant beneficiary of

funds flowing through as a result of defense activities. Of the $5.4 billion flow

in 2016, procurement accounted for the largest share at 80% or roughly $4.4

billion. Salaries accounted for 2% and transfers accounted for 18%.

Table 92. Orange County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures



Salaries $115.7

Transfers $963.4


80%

2%

18%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

FIGURE 126. ORANGE COUNTY: DISTRIBUTION OF DIRECT DEFENSE

SPENDING

260

2017 Update


Table 93. Orange County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $14,145.4 $13,986.2 $14,241.6 $14,362.2 $14,294.3




Investment Residential $855.3 $1,173.2 $1,236.2 $1,152.3 $1,002.4




Government $272.4 $414.0 $502.4 $553.7 $582.8

Exports $7,853.3 $7,353.1 $7,345.0 $7,431.4 $7,469.7


Overall, the military accounted for 74,581 jobs in Orange County in 2016 and roughly $8.8 Billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP – total value


for the region is forecast to remain rather stable between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate 71,764 jobs in 2020. This

amounts to just under 3,000 less jobs in the county by 2020.



261








furniture, etc.






262

2017 Update


Table 94. Orange County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $5,027.0 42,736 $0.0 0 $3.3 30 $5,030.3 42,766

Employment $1,311.8 11,152 $173.0 1,575 $27.2 250 $1,512.0 12,977

Transfers $2,203.5 18,733 $0.0 0 $11.4 105 $2,215.0 18,838

Totals $8,542.3 72,621 $172.6 1,575 $41.9 385 $8,756.9 74,581



and wages, transfers and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show,

procurement had the highest impact—generating over 42,500 jobs across the region. Salaries and wages generated 12,977 jobs and transfer

payments generated 18,838 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military (72,621) with the Coast Guard and the National Guard

combining to generate just under 2,000 jobs in the county.

263





benchmarks the total share of Orange County, Florida income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the East Central Florida

Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal income in

Orange County than at the regional, state, and national levels, a fairly sharp turn since 1990.

Figure 127. Military Share of total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Orange County

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United States

Florida

East Central Region

ORANGE, FL

264

2017 Update



benchmark the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Orange County, military employees in 1980 had

earnings which totaled 105% of the Orange County workforce’s average earnings level. For East Central Florida, this figure was 109%, for Florida

114%, and for the US as a whole it was 87%. By 2016, the Orange County earnings figure had fallen to 80%. East Central had risen to 106%. State


Figure 128. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central region, and Orange County

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United States

Florida

East Central Region

ORANGE, FL

265



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as ashore of total employment for Orange County against the East Central Florida Region, the

state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for 5% of Orange County employment, 3% of East Central Florida

employment, about 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.3%, 0.5%, 1%, and 1%,


Figure 129. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Orange County

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Florida

East Central Region

ORANGE, FL

266

2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Orange County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in

1985 for Orange County was 105%of the 1980 total. However, by 2010 the military had shrunk to 17% of its 1980 size in the county. Overall, we

note that military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of

its 1980 totals, while at the state level, it is also approximately 81%. For Orange County, military employment, in 2016, stands at approximately


Figure 130. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, East Central Region, and Orange County

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East Central Region

ORANGE, FL

267







household income – a measure of income earned by all members of a household – is nearly $52,500 compared to Florida’s $53,000.

Table 95. Demographic Estimates, Orange County







Income






268

2017 Update




the information, financial activities, and manufacturing sectors are the region’s highest earners, with leisure and hospitality employing the most

workers. The education and health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 23%. This,

along with the government and construction industries, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth

of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 131. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth – Orange County

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269



Pinellas County

Pinellas County Summary Location: Tampa Bay Florida Region

Home to: United States Coast Guard Air

Station Clearwater

Coast Guard Air Station Clearwater is the largest and busiest Air Station in

the Coast Guard. The Area of Operations includes the Gulf of Mexico, the

Caribbean basin, and the Bahamas. The Stations maintains deployed H-60s

for Operations Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos engaging anti-drug and

migrant smuggling operations. The Station also has C-130s deployed in

support of its operations in the Caribbean.

Economic Impact Estimates As Table 96 shows, the Pinellas County economy is a significant beneficiary

of dollars associated with defense activities—over $1.9 billion direct dollars

in 2016. Transfers accounted for the largest share at 64% or roughly $1.2

billion of the $1.9 billion total. Salaries accounted for 6%, and procurement

accounted for 31%.

Table 96. Pinellas County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $596.7

Salaries $112.5

Transfers $1,239.9


31%

6%64%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 132. Pinellas County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

270

2017 Update


Table 97. Pinellas County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $5,285.6 $5,684.5 $5,925.3 $5,945.2 $5,858.2




Investment Residential $690.4 $976.3 $1,046.5 $988.9 $876.3




Government $117.6 $180.2 $220.2 $243.8 $258.0

Exports $2,113.3 $2,064.9 $2,063.7 $2,063.3 $2,051.2


Overall, the military accounted for over 40,800 jobs in Pinellas County in 2016 and just over $4.0 billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP - total

value of all goods and services produced in the region). This is 7.5% of the county’s estimated 2016 Gross Regional Product. The total impact for

the region is forecast to rise between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate 43,019 jobs in 2020. This is over 2,100 additional

jobs, and almost an additional $500 million in GRP by 2020.



271








furniture, etc.






272

2017 Update


Table 98. Pinellas County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $818.3 8,196 $0.0 0 $13.8 147 $832.1 8,343

Employment $843.7 8,450 $216.1 2,081 $370.0 3,931 $1,429.7 14,462

Transfers $1,783.7 17,865 $0.0 0 $20.5 218 $1,804.2 18,083

Totals $3,445.6 34,510 $216.1 2,081 $404.4 4,296 $4,066.1 40,887



and wages, transfers and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show, transfers to

military, Coast Guard, and National Guard have the highest impact—generating 18,083 jobs across the region. Procurement flows generate 8,343

jobs, and salaries generate 14,462 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are generated by the military (34,510) with the Coast Guard and the National Guard

combining to generate over 6,300 jobs in the county.

273





benchmarks the total share of Pinellas County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Tampa Bay Florida

Region, the State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal income in

Pinellas County than at the regional, state, and national levels. The Pinellas County share has fluctuated only slightly in the last few decades.

Figure 133. Military Share of total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Pinellas County

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Florida

Tampa Bay Region

PINELLAS, FL

274

2017 Update



the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Pinellas County, military employees in 1980 had earnings which

totaled 64% of the Pinellas County workforce’s average earnings level. For the Tampa Bay region of Florida, this figure was 95%, for Florida 114%,

and for the US as a whole it was 87%. By 2016, the Pinellas County earnings figure had risen to 110%. The Tampa Bay region increased to 150%,

the state figure increased to 158%, and for the US as a whole the relative earnings ratio now stands at 120%.

Figure 134. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay region, and Pinellas County

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Florida

Tampa Bay Region

PINELLAS, FL

275



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as ashore of total employment for Pinellas County against the Tampa Bay Region, the state,

and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for about 1% of Pinellas County employment, 1% of the Tampa Bay Region

employment, 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.5%, 1%, 1% and 1%, respectively. These

data indicate that the military directly contributes approximately the same share of county employment as in 1980.

Figure 135. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Pinellas County

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United States

Florida

Tampa Bay Region

PINELLAS, FL

276

2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Pinellas County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in 1985

for Pinellas County was 113%of the 1980 total. By 2010 the military had 116% in the county. Overall, we note that military employment, relative

to the 1980 totals, has declined. Military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its 1980 totals, while at the state level, it is

approximately 81%. For Pinellas County, however, military employment, in 2016, stands at approximately 108% of its 1980 level.

Figure 136. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Pinellas County

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United States

Florida

Tampa Bay Region

PINELLAS, FL

277








Table 99. Demographic Estimates, Pinellas County







Income






278

2017 Update




the information, government, and manufacturing sectors are the region’s highest earners, with education and health services, professional and

business services, and trade, transportation, and utilities industries employing the most workers – roughly 77,000 each. The education and health

services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 14%. This, along with the construction industry,

are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10% expected over the next decade.

Figure 137. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth, Pinellas County

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Polk County

Polk County Summary Location: Tampa Bay Florida Region

Home to: Avon Park Air Force Range

Avon Park Air Force Range (Highlands and Polk Counties) is the largest

live ordnance bombing and gunnery range east of the Mississippi River.

Avon Park Air Force Range includes 400 square miles of restricted

airspace, 1,000 square miles of military operating area, and 100,929

acres, providing an important training facility for Active, Guard, and

Reserve military units from the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and

Coast Guard, and for special operations and Homeland Security

personnel.

Economic Impact Estimates Polk County benefits substantially from defense activities. As indicated in

Table 100, in 2016, an estimated $538 million flowed through to Polk

County. Transfer payments accounted for the largest share at 89% or

roughly $479 million of the total. Salaries accounted for 6%, and


Table 100. Polk County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $28.8

Salaries $29.9

Transfers $479.1


5%6%

89%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 138. Polk County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

280

2017 Update


Table 101. Polk County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $1,425.9 $1,617.6 $1,710.7 $1,709.1 $1,663.3


Gross Regional Product $935.4 $1,061.9 $1,128.3 $1,134.4 $1,112.4

Total Consumption $847.5 $901.0 $958.8 $990.3 $1,011.7





Government $37.9 $62.8 $79.3 $88.3 $92.8

Exports $593.9 $628.8 $648.4 $643.3 $626.5

Imports (subtract) $854.6 $987.2 $1,071.3 $1,097.6 $1,096.1

Overall, defense activities generated nearly 11,700 jobs in Polk County in 2016 and $935 million in total Gross Regional Product (GRP - total value


for the county is forecast to increase between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate about 12,898 jobs in 2020. This

amounts to an additional 1,200 jobs in the region by 2020.



281








furniture, etc.






282

2017 Update


Table 102. Polk County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $173.4 2,173 $0.0 0 $1.3 15 $174.6 2,188

Employment $211.6 2,653 $33.1 371 $7.6 90 $252.3 3,114

Transfers $505.2 6,333 $0.0 0 $3.3 39 $508.5 6,372

Totals $890.2 11,158 $33.1 371 $12.1 144 $935.4 11,673



and wages, transfers and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show, transfer

payments have the highest impact—generating just under 6,400 jobs across the region. Procurement flows generated 2,188 jobs, and salaries and

wages paid to military, Coast Guard, and National Guard employees generated 3,114 jobs. The bulk of these jobs are associated with the military

(11,158) with the Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate just over 500 jobs in the county.



283



benchmarks the total share of Polk County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Tampa Bay Region, the

State of Florida, and the US. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a slightly smaller share of personal income in Polk County

than at the regional, state, and national levels, consistent with past decades.

Figure 139. Military Share of total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Polk County

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2017 Update



the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Polk County, military employees in 1980 had earnings which

totaled 28% of the Polk County workforce’s average earnings level. For the Tampa Bay region of Florida, this figure was 95%, for Florida 114%, and

for the US as a whole it was 87%. By 2016, the Polk County earnings figure had risen to 76%. The Tampa Bay region increased to 150%, state

comparative earnings increased to 158%, and for the US as a whole the relative earnings ratio is now at 120%.

Figure 140. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay region, and Polk County

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285



Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for Polk County against the Tampa Bay Florida Region, the

state, and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980 the military accounted for about .5% of Polk County employment, over 1% of the Tampa Bay Region

employment, about 3% of Florida employment, and 2% of US employment. By 2016, these figures declined to 0.5%, 1%, 1%, and 1%, respectively.

These data indicate that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employment as it once did.

Figure 141. Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Polk County

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Florida

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POLK, FL

286

2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Polk County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in 1985

for Polk County was 127% of the 1980 total. By 2010, the military had grown to 150% of its 1980 size in the county. Overall, we note that military

employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently at 81% of its 1980 totals,

while at the state level, it is also approximately 81%. For Polk County, military employment, in 2016, stands at approximately 153% of its 1980

level.

Figure 142. Total Military Employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Tampa Bay Region, and Polk County

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Florida

Tampa Bay Region

POLK, FL

287








Table 103. Demographic Estimates, Polk County







Income






288

2017 Update




the information, government, and financial activities sectors are the region’s highest earners, with trade, transportation, and utilities industry

employing the most workers. The education and health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years –

growing at 15%. This is the only industry in the county with earnings greater than the county average and positive growth of at least 10% expected


Figure 143. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth, Polk County

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289



Santa Rosa County

Santa Rosa County Summary Location: Northwest Florida Region

Home to: Naval Air Station Whiting Field

Naval Air Station Whiting Field’s mission is to produce the military’s best

trained “Aviation Warfighter.” Naval Air Station Whiting Field is where the

future of Naval Aviation begins. With 12 outlying fields, Naval Air Station

Whiting hosts 21 tenant activities, including Training Air Wing 5 which

produces over 700 pilots a year. Naval Air Station Whiting Field owns 61%

of Navy outlying landing fields, and 11% of all DoD flight hours are flown

out of NAS Whiting annually.

Economic Impact Estimates As the data in Table 104 indicate, Santa Rosa County is a significant

beneficiary of funding associated with defense activities—just over a half

million dollars in 2016. Transfer payments accounted for the largest share at

80% or roughly $418 million of the total. Salaries accounted for 10%, and


Table 104. Santa Rosa County: Combined Direct Defense

Expenditures


Procurement $51.0

Salaries $52.2

Transfers $417.7


10%

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80%

Procurment

Salaries

Transfers

Figure 144. Santa Rosa County: Distribution of Direct Defense Spending

290

2017 Update


Table 105. Santa Rosa County: Economic Impact Forecast, 2016 – 2020


Impact Type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total Sales $1,496.9 $1,748.9 $1,872.1 $1,866.2 $1,795.7








Government $66.1 $95.4 $116.5 $128.3 $134.5

Exports $1,157.2 $1,167.2 $1,175.6 $1,162.9 $1,145.8


Overall, defense activities generated 15,826 jobs in Santa Rosa County in 2016 and just over $1.4 billion in total Gross Regional Product (GRP -


total impact for the county is forecast to increase between 2016 and 2020. Defense activities are forecast to generate 18,642 jobs by 2020. This

amounts to just under 3,000 additional jobs in the county by 2020.



291








furniture, etc.






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2017 Update


Table 106. Santa Rosa County: Total Economic Impacts by Component, Jobs, and Gross Regional Product (2016)

Millions USD



Procurement $136.8 1,529 $0.0 0 $0.1 2 $136.9 1,531

Employment $914.8 10,228 $87.6 688 $4.3 73 $1,006.6 10,989

Transfers $293.7 3,284 $0.0 0 $1.3 22 $295.0 3,306

Totals $1,345.3 15,041 $87.6 688 $5.7 97 $1,438.5 15,826



and wages, and transfers and impacts generated by the military, the Coast Guard, and the National Guard. As the data in the table show, salaries

and wages paid to military, Coast Guard, and National Guard employees have the highest impact—generating nearly 11,000 jobs across the region.


with the Coast Guard and the National Guard combining to generate just under 800 jobs in the county.

293



Military Share of Total Earnings Earnings account for the majority of personal income and include wage and salary disbursements, proprietors’ income and supplements to wages


benchmarks the total share of Santa Rosa County, Florida’s income that can be attributed to the military (over time) against the Northwest Florida

Region, the US and the State of Florida. As the data reflect, the military currently contributes to a substantially larger share of personal income in

Santa Rosa County than at the state and national levels and a slightly smaller share than the Northwest Florida Region.

Figure 145. Military Share of Total Earnings, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Santa Rosa County

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2017 Update


Average Military Earnings versus Average Total Earnings The figure below displays the ratio of average military earning per military worker to average earnings per worker. It thus allows us to benchmark

the earnings of military employees against the earnings patterns of all workers. For Santa Rosa County, military employees in 1980 had earnings

which totaled 145% of the Santa Rosa County workforce’s average earnings level. For Northwest Florida, this figure was also 145%, for Florida

114% and for the US as a whole it was 87%. By 2016, the Santa Rosa County earnings figure had risen to 323%, Northwest Florida increased to

212%, state comparative earnings had risen to 158% and for the US the relative earnings ratio increased to 120%.

Figure 146. Average Military Earnings vs Average Total Earnings, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Santa Rosa County

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Military Employment as a Share of Total Employment The figure below benchmarks military employment as a share of total employment for Santa Rosa County against the Northwest Florida Region,

the state and the US. As the data indicate, in 1980, the military accounted for 13% of Santa Rosa County employment, 9% of Northwest Florida

employment, 3% of Florida employment and 2% of US employment. By 2014, these figures declined to 3%, 5%, 1% and 1%, respectively. These

data indicate that the military does not directly contribute to as large a share of county employment as it once did.

Figure 147. Military Employment as a share of Total Employment, 1970 -2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida, and Santa Rosa County

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2017 Update


Change in Military Employment The figure below benchmarks the size of military employment in Santa Rosa County against the 1980 total. For example, military employment in

1985 for Santa Rosa County was 90% of the 1980 total. However, by 2010 the military had shrunk to 59% of its 1980 size in the county. Overall,

we note that military employment, relative to the 1980 totals, has declined. Indeed, military employment at the national level is currently at 81%

of its 1980 totals, while at the state level, it is also approximately 81%. For Santa Rosa County, military employment in 2016 stands at approximately


Figure 148. Total employment Indexed to 1980, 1970 – 2025: United States, Florida, Northwest Florida Region, and Santa Rosa COUNTY

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Northwest Region

Santa Rosa

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Table 107. Demographic Estimates, Santa Rosa County







Income






298

2017 Update




the government and manufacturing sectors are the region’s highest earners, with government employing the most workers. The education and

health services industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry over the next 10 years – growing at 30%. This, along with the financial

activities and manufacturing industries, are among the highest earners (greater than the region’s average) with positive growth of at least 10%

expected over the next decade.

Figure 149. Regional Industry and Earnings Growth, Santa Rosa County

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FLORIDA DEFENSE INDUSTRY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSISDECEMBER 2017

This study was commissioned and sponsored

by the Florida Defense Support Task Force.

For more information, please visit

www.enterpriseflorida.com/fdstf.

Documents

FLORIDA DEFENSE INDUSTRY ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS · 2018. 1. 5. · 2 2017 Update Florida Defense Industry Economic Impact Analysis 2017 Update Acknowledgments Matrix Design Group