Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Nov 2009

8/14/2019 Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Nov 2009

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Cambodia Economic Flash Report November 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute Page 2

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sanPaBGRtabrR)ak; nig CMnYyGPivDn_BIeRkARbeTsExchange Rates and External Development Assistance

Riels per US Dollar

August 2008October 2009

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Riels per THB & VND


Source:National Bank of Cambodia

Monetary Survey (%)

June 2008August 2009

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jun08

Aug08

Oct08

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug09

Annualised growth rate (M2)

Annualised growth rate (M1)

Growth over the previous 12 months (M2)


Domestic Credit (%)


-40-20

02040

6080

100120140

160180

Jun08

Aug08

Oct08

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug09

010

203040

5060

708090

100110

Annualised change in domestic credit (left)

Annualised change in private sector credit (left)

P revious 12 months ' growth in domes tic credit (right)


Monetary Operations



External Development Assistance Disbursement:

Environment & Conservation

20002007

Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2007, CDC

4118

4161

4172

4102

41454156

3900

3950

4000

4050

4100

4150

4200

Aug08

Oct08

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug09

Oct09

Market rate

Official ra te

125.4

123.3

120

23.5

23.4

24.8

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

Aug08

Oct08

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug09

Oct09

KHRper

Baht

1920212223242526

272829303132

KHRperVD

N100

Thai baht (left)

Vietnamese dong (right)

-6000-4000-2000

02000400060008000

100001200014000

Jun08

Aug08

Oct08

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug09

KHRbn

Liquidity Net Foreign Assets

Privat e Sector Credit Government Deposits

Other0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

USDm


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BaNiCkmeRkARbeTs nig karGnuvtfvikaCatiExternal Trade and National Budget Operations

Imports: Cigarettes & Construction Materials

May 2008July 2009

Source:Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Cambodia: Main Exports

May 2008July 2009

0

50

10 0

15 0

20 025 0

30 0

35 0

40 0

May08

Jul08

Sep08

Nov08

Jan09

Mar09

May09

Jul09

USDm

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

USDm

T otal export s (left) Garment s (left )

Rubber (right ) Fish (right)

Source:Economic & Monetary Statistics,NBC

Imports: Petroleum ProductsMay 2008July 2009

Source:Economic & Monetary Statistics,NBC

Current Budget OperationsJuly 2008September 2009

Source: MEF Bulletin

Current Budget Revenue

July 2008September 2009

Source: MEF web site

Current Budget Expenditure


Source: MEF web site

233

247241

9385

113

41

80

87

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jul08

Sep08

Nov08

Jan09

Mar09

May09

Jul09

Sep09

K

HRbn

Non-tax

Import a nd Export taxes

Domes tic taxes

35.2

65.9 45.5

16.0

11.8

20.414.2

16.5

12.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

May08

Jul08

Sep08

Nov08

Jan09

Mar09

May09

Jul09

KHRbn

Cigarett es Cement St eel

108.3

98.6

98.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

May08

Jul08

Sep08

Nov08

Jan09

Mar09

May09

Jul09

KHRbn 33

148

-4

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul0

8

Sep0

8

Nov0

8

Jan0

9

Mar09

May09

Jul0

9

Sep0

9

KHRbn

334

167

43

124

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jul08

Sep08

Nov08

Jan09

Mar09

May09

Jul09

Sep09

KHRbn

Other servicesSubsidies and social assistanceWagesCurrent expenditure


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GRtabrR)ak; nig sanPaBfTMnijelITIpSarGnrCatiExchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets

KRW & HKD per USD


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

EUR & JPY per USD



THB & SGD Per USD



Rice: International Prices Index & Export Prices


Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz and InterRice

Prices: Soybeans, Maize & RubberJune 2008August 2009

Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation

Prices: Crude Oil, Gasoline & DieselAugust 2008October 2009

Source:US Energy Information Administration

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Aug08

Oct08

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug09

Oct09

KRW

7.72

7.73

7.74

7.75

7.76

7.77

7.78

7.79

7.80

HKD

KRW (left scale)

HKD (right scale)

90.00

94.00

98.00

102.00

106.00

110.00

114.00

118.00

122.00

126.00

Aug08

Oct08

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug09

Oct09

JPY

0.6

0.63

0.66

0.69

0.72

0.75

0.78

0.81

0.84

0.87

EURO

JPY (left scale)

EURO (right scale)

1.35

1.38

1.41

1.44

1.47

1.50

1.53

1.56

Aug

08

Oct0

8

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug

09

Oct0

9

SGD

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

THB

SGD (left scale)

THB (right scale)

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

Jul0

8

Sep0

8

Nov0

8

Jan0

9

Mar0

9

May0

9

Jul0

9

Sep0

9

USD/tonneFOB

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

IPO

USA 2/4

Thai 100% B

IPO

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

Jun08

Aug08

Oct08

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug09

USD

/tonneFOB

- 1 0 0

3 0 0

7 0 0

1 1 0 0

1 5 0 0

1 9 0 0

2 3 0 0

2 7 0 0

3 1 0 0

3 5 0 0

S o y b e a n s : U S N o . 1 , Y e l l o w ( l e f t s c a l e )M a i z e : U S N o . 2 , Y e l l o w ( l e f t s c a l e )R u b b e r S M R 5 ( r i g h t s c a l e ) 2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 0 0

1 1 0

1 2 0

1 3 0

1 4 0

1 5 0

Aug08

Oct08

Dec08

Feb09

Apr09

Jun09

Aug09

Oct09

U

SD

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 0 0

1 1 0

1 2 0

1 3 0

1 4 0

1 5 0

US

Cent

C r u d e o i l : O P E C s p o t - U S D / b a r r e l

G aso l ine : U S G u l f C oas t - U S cen t s / l i t r e ( righ t s ca le )

D iese l : l ow su lphu r N o .2 - U S cen t s / l i t re ( r igh t s ca le )


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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Nov 2009