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Five ecologicallydistinct functional groups
Three trophic levels
Continuous Plankton Recorder
http://www.sahfos.ac.uk/
A diatom, showing the typical results for diatoms and copepods
A dinoflagellate, showing the typical results for dinoflagellates and zooplankton
Marine food-web succession: copepods and diatoms first, followed by primary and secondary consumers
Little shift in mean seasonal peak – peak during turnover in water column responding to photoperiod cues
Advance in mean seasonal peak – peak after turnover in water column responding to temperature cues
Peak abundance is:
Earlier
Later
Regression of Ton year:
= 0.9 deg Cover 43 years
Units of Y-axis are months
Producers
Consumers
Climate Envelope Modelling Approach:
1. Observed effects on (distribution, abundance) and growth of temperature and dissolved O2
2. Projected changes in temperature and dissolved O2 under SRES A2 Scenario.
Cod
Haddock
Chinook and RBT: 24 C thermal toleranceBull trout: 14.4 C thermal tolerance
- 95th percentile of frequency distribution- on a weekly scale
John Day River systemHobo temperature loggers
Max stream temperature = fn (max air temp + solar radiation)
AIRTEMPERATUREPROJECTIONS
A1B emissionsscenario
(a) Historic (1993-2009)(b) Projection (2070-2099)
Chinook and RBT: 24 C thermal toleranceBull trout: 14.4 C thermal tolerance
MS – main stemsTRB – tributariesALL - combined
L – loss by reach lengthV- loss by reach volume
2070 -2099 vs
1993 - 2009