FISCAL ACCOUNTABILITY REPORT FISCAL YEARS 2016 2020 · NOVEMBER 18, 2015. Presentation Overview •Summary of OPM projections •Economic factors and revenue trends •Expenditures,

FISCAL ACCOUNTABILITY REPORTFISCAL YEARS 2016 – 2020

OFFICE OF POLICY AND MANAGEMENTBEN BARNES, SECRETARY

NOVEMBER 18, 2015

Presentation Overview

• Summary of OPM projections

• Economic factors and revenue trends

• Expenditures, major cost drivers, and long-term obligations

• Five year bond projections

• Budget Reserve Fund status

2

Overview of Projections

3

Financial Summary of Funds

4

in millions

Estimated Enacted

General Fund FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020

Revenues 17,944.9$ 18,311.8$ 18,530.9$ 19,066.6$ 19,628.7$ Expenditures 18,067.3 18,711.2 19,813.9 20,298.4 21,057.0

Balance (122.4)$ (399.4)$ (1,283.0)$ (1,231.8)$ (1,428.3)$

GAAP Adjustment(1)- (108.7) - - -

Revised Balance (122.4)$ (508.1)$ (1,283.0)$ (1,231.8)$ (1,428.3)$

Special Transportation Fund

Revenues (1) 1,423.5$ 1,547.9$ 1,683.8$ 1,735.6$ 1,774.9$ Expenditures 1,416.1 1,496.1 1,574.2 1,676.4 1,766.1

Balance 7.4$ 51.8$ 109.6$ 59.2$ 8.8$

(1) Represents the FY 2014 increase in the unass igned negative General Fund balance (cumulative GAAP defici t)

reported in accordance with C.G.S. 2-35(b).

Projected

Expenditure Growth - All Funds

5

5.6%

4.9%

5.7%

6.4%

3.5%

8.4%

-2.0%

3.9%

5.2%

6.4%6.3% 6.2%

5.4%

2.2%

3.0%

4.1%

4.6%

1.2%

2.4%

3.1%

4.6%

3.2%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017

Exp

end

itu

re G

row

th R

ate

Fiscal Year

Avg. represents the compound annual growth rate of each shaded section.2013 to 2014 growth has been adjusted to reflect the net budgeting of Medicaid.

Average = 3.1%Average = 4.2%Average = 4.7%

Revenue and Expenditure Growth Rates

6

All Funds Compound Annual Growth

Revenues and expenditures adjusted for net budgeting of Medicaid.

2.2%

2.8%2.7%

4.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

FY 2011 - FY 2015 FY 2015 - FY 2020

Revenue Expenditures

Cap and Balance Projections

7

• Over the next four years revenues are projected to grow by $2.0 billion.

• The state’s spending cap will permit growth of $3.3 billion.

• Expenditures and revenues will need to be aligned in order for the budget to remain in balance.

$23,050

$23,070

$21,651

$19,000

$20,000

$21,000

$22,000

$23,000

$24,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fiscal Year

All Funds(in millions)

Expenditure CapExpendituresRevenue

Economy and Revenue

8

General Fund Revenue SourcesFiscal Year 2016

9

Total $17,944.9 Million

Personal Income Tax, 49.9%

Sales & Use Tax,21.3%

Federal Grants, 6.5%

Corporation Tax, 4.7%

Health Provider Tax, 3.5%

Cigarettes Tax, 1.9%

Special Revenue, 1.7%

All Other, 10.6%

General Fund Economic Growth Rates

10

7.1%

4.9%

1.2%

-1.9%

5.6%

3.9%

2.8% 3.0%2.3%

-7.9%

-3.5%

4.9%

2.4%

1.3%1.9%

3.9% 3.8% 3.9%3.4%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 16Fcst.

17Fcst.

18Fcst.

% G

row

th

Fiscal Year

Sales Tax TrendsEconomic Growth Rates

11

Personal Income Tax TrendsEconomic Growth Rates

12

9.5%8.7%

-1.5%-1.8%

6.0%

7.8%7.1%

7.8%

4.5%

-3.7%

0.8%

5.2%

3.6%3.1%

3.9%3.1%3.3%3.3%

4.0%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 16Fcst.

17Fcst.

18Fcst.

% G

row

th

Fiscal Year

Withholding Tax

19.0%

-23.5%

-14.7%

21.9%22.8%

19.4%

13.0%17.9%

-27.3%-21.3%

27.7%

0.3%

21.9%

-6.6%

9.9%

4.5%4.8%5.0%

-42.0%

39.5%

-60.1%

92.6%

-9.9%

-8.9%

-70.0%

-40.0%

-10.0%

20.0%

50.0%

80.0%

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16Fcst.

'17Fcst.

'18Fcst.

Cap

ital

Gai

ns

Gro

wth

Rat

e

E &

F E

con

om

ic G

row

th R

ate

Fiscal Year

Estimates & Finals vs. Capital Gains Realizations

Estimates & Final

CT Capital Gains

Note: Capital Gains are for the immediately preceding calendar year.

Income TaxHighly Dependent Upon Capital Gains

13

Risks to FY 2016 Revenue Forecast

14

$1,5

01.0

$1,7

85.8

$1,3

61.7

$1,2

30.6 $1,5

88.4 $1,9

43.5 $2,3

22.0

$2,6

16.6

$3,1

35.0

$2,2

30.6

$2,3

08.8 $2,6

85.0 $3,0

43.3

$3,4

98.1

$3,2

94.4

$3,5

88.1

$599.6

$3,7

49.4

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16Est.

Mill

ion

s

Fiscal Year

ESTIMATES AND FINALS PERSONAL INCOME TAX COLLECTIONS

Yet to be Collected

as of 10/31/2015

Slow Revenue Recovery

15

• Income tax revenues have exceeded their pre-recession peak for the last three fiscal years. This past fiscal year, for the first time since the recovery began, sales tax revenues exceeded their pre-recession peak.

• If this recovery had been similar to the 2003 recovery, income tax revenue would have been $2.5 billion higher in FY 2015.

• Had the sales tax recovered at the same pace as in 2003, revenues would have been $560 million higher in FY 2015.

Slower Economic RecoveryPersonal Income Tax

16

98.5 96.7

102.5

110.5

118.4

127.6

133.4

96.3 97.1

102.1 105.8 109.1

113.3

116.8

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

20012008

20022009

20032010

20042011

20052012

20062013

20072014

20082015

Ind

ex

Withholding

2001 Recession 2008 Recession

76.5

65.3

79.5

97.7

116.6

131.8

155.4

72.7

57.2

73.1 73.3

89.3 83.4

91.7

50.0

70.0

90.0

110.0

130.0

150.0

20012008

20022009

20032010

20042011

20052012

20062013

20072014

20082015

Ind

ex

Estimates & Finals

2001 Recession 2008 Recession

• The withholding component of Personal Income Tax has exceeded its pre-recession peak since FY 2011, but revenues from Estimates & Finals remain below their pre-recession peak.

• If this recovery had been similar to the 2003 recovery:• Withholding tax revenue would have been about $625 million higher in FY 2015.• Estimates & Finals revenue would have been about $1.9 billion higher in FY

2015.

Employment Recovery

17

Connecticut has had positive job growth for the past five consecutive fiscal years, from FY 2011 to FY 2015, and has regained 99,500 jobs from the bottom of the recession.

Average annual wage growth has slowed dramatically post-recession from 4.0% to 1.8%. In FY 2015, employment grew 1.2% while the average annual wage grew 1.6%.

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fiscal Year

Growth in Employment and Average Annual Wage

Employment Growth Average Annual Wage Growth

Average = 0.9%(Employment)

Average = 4.0%(Wage)

Average = 0.9%(Employment)

Average = 1.8%(Wage)

Expenditures:Major Cost Drivers &

Long Term Obligations

18

FY 2016 Shortfall

• ComponentsRevenue (Nov. 10, 2015 consensus) $217.5 million

Agency deficiencies $8.5 million

Total $226.0 million

• September 18, 2015 rescissions $102.8 million

• Hiring limitations

• Contracting and travel restrictions

• Bipartisan deficit mitigation effort underway

19

Drivers of Outyear Budget Growth

20

FY 2016

Expenditures

Average

Annual

Growth Rate

to FY 2020

Teachers' Retirement System 975.6$ 8.1%

Active & Ret. Healthcare, incl. OPEB 1,355.8 7.8%

Debt Service 1,937.6 6.4%

State Employees' Retirement System 1,096.8 5.5%

Medicaid 2,468.4 4.3%

Personal Services, incl. RSA 2,435.0 3.9%

Higher Education 740.4 3.1%

Other Expenses 513.6 0.5%

All Other 6,544.1 1.5%

Total General Fund 18,067.3$ 3.9%

in millions

Reduced Executive Branch Workforce

21

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

01

-Ju

n-0

8

01

-Oct

-08

01-

Feb

-09

01

-Ju

n-0

9

01

-Oct

-09

01-

Feb

-10

01

-Ju

n-1

0

01

-Oct

-10

01-

Feb

-11

01

-Ju

n-1

1

01

-Oct

-11

01-

Feb

-12

01

-Ju

n-1

2

01

-Oct

-12

01-

Feb

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

3

01

-Oct

-13

01-

Feb

-14

01

-Ju

n-1

4

01

-Oct

-14

01-

Feb

-15

01

-Ju

n-1

5

Employees on Full-time PayrollExecutive Branch (excluding Higher Ed. units)

Appropriated Funds

• Since FY 2011, the number of budgeted state agencies has been reduced by 27%, from 81 to 59.• LEAN is now routinely used to improve turnaround times, reduce red tape and create efficiencies.• The state has invested more than $107 million in IT infrastructure, improving service delivery and customer

interaction.• The state workforce has undergone substantial attrition without resorting to any costly retirement incentive plans.

Full-time Executive Branch employment has fallen since December 2010 from 29,600 employees to 28,600 – a reduction of 3.4%

Medicaid

22

$4,084

$4,594 $4,842

$5,048

$2,532 $2,347 $2,468 $2,543 $2,666 $2,790 $2,926

$2,993 $3,483 $3,662 $3,702

$3,798 $3,949

$4,079

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

$6,500

$7,000

'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Est.

'17

Fcst.

'18

Fcst.

'19

Fcst.

'20

Fcst.

Caselo

ad

Expendit

ure

s (in

millions)

Fiscal Year

General Fund Federal Share under Net Budgeting Caseload

$5,525

$5,831$6,130

$6,244$6,464

$6,739$7,005

• Beginning with the budget adopted in FY 2014, only the state’s share of the Medicaid account in the Department of Social Services is appropriated.

• Increases in “Federal Share under Net Budgeting” reflect the impact of federal health care reform, which expands Medicaid coverage to childless adults with income up to 138% of the federal poverty level beginning January 1, 2014. (Costs are 100% federally reimbursed through 2016, after which reimbursement is phased down to 90% in 2020.)

Medicaid

23

• In contrast to almost all other Medicaid programs across the nation, Connecticut Medicaid is not using any managed care arrangements and is structured as a managed, fee-for-service program. It is one of the very few Medicaid programs whose expenditures on a per member, per month (PMPM) basis have been relatively steady—in fact, there was a sizeable drop in the PMPM in FY 2015.

• DSS is employing diverse strategies to achieve improved health outcomes and cost efficiencies in the Medicaid program, including:

• use of an administrative services organization (ASO) platform to promote efficient, cost-effective and consumer / provider responsive services;

• use of data analytics to improve care;

• activities in support of improving access to preventative primary care;

• efforts to support integration of medical, behavioral health, and long-term services and supports;

• initiatives designed to “re-balance” spending on long-term services and supports; and

• efforts to promote the use of health information technology.

5.8%

4.3%5.1%

-0.7%

11.3%

9.4%

7.5%

1.8%

n/a

5.7%

12.4%

-5.9%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

U.S. MedicaidSpending

DSS Expenditures(Gross)

DSS Enrollment(Average)

Medicaid Trends

FY 12 to FY 13 Change FY 13 to FY 14 Change FY 14 to FY 15 Change

DSS PMPM (Average)

Long Term Obligations

24

Bonded Indebtedness

31.7%

State Employees Pensions

21.1%

Teachers' Pension 15.2%

State Employees

OPEB 27.6%

Teachers' OPEB3.4%

GAAP Deficit 1.0%

Bonded Indebtedness - As of 7/31/15 22.4$

State Employee Pensions - Unfunded as of 6/30/14 14.9

Teachers' Pension - Unfunded as of 6/30/14 10.8

State Employee Post Retirement Health and Life - Unfunded as of 6/30/2013 19.5

Teachers' Post Retirement Health and Life - Unfunded as of 6/30/2014 2.4

Cumulative GAAP Deficit - As of 6/30/14 0.7

Total 70.7$

In billions

State Employees Retirement System Contributions

25

in millions

SEBAC 3 SEBAC 4 SEBAC 5 Other Total

1993 444.2 (162.4) (162.4) 281.8 63.4%

1994 474.7 (164.4) (5.7) (170.1) 304.5 64.2%

1995 535.3 (173.3) (173.3) 362.0 67.6%

1996 501.1 (166.0) (166.0) 335.1 66.9%

1997 542.8 (175.9) (17.6) (193.6) 349.2 64.3%

1998 567.6 (175.3) (18.7) (194.0) 373.6 65.8%

2000 393.4 (21.0) (29.6) (50.6) 342.8 87.1%

2001 429.3 (22.2) (31.4) (53.6) 375.6 87.5%

2002 479.7 (26.6) (37.6) (64.2) 415.5 86.6%

2003 493.3 (27.9) (39.5) (67.4) 425.9 86.3%

2004 544.8 (29.3) (41.4) (70.8) 474.0 87.0%

2005 590.6 (30.8) (43.5) (74.3) 516.3 87.4%

2006 701.1 (32.3) (45.7) (78.0) 623.1 88.9%

2007 745.8 (34.0) (48.0) (81.9) 663.9 89.0%

2008 803.0 (35.7) (50.4) (86.0) 716.9 89.3%

2009 844.0 (37.4) (52.9) (50.0) (140.3) 703.7 83.4%

2010 998.8 (42.0) (59.4) (164.5) (265.9) 732.9 73.4%

2011 1,049.6 (43.7) (61.8) (100.0) (205.5) 844.1 80.4%

2012 1,040.5 (47.3) (66.8) (114.1) 926.4 89.0%

2013 1,059.7 - 1,059.7 100.0%

2014 1,268.9 - 1,268.9 100.0%

2015 1,379.2 - 1,379.2 100.0%

Total 15,887.3 (1,017.4) (430.3) (607.8) (356.5) (2,412.1) 13,475.2 84.8%

Note: The budgeted contribution for FY 1999 was $315.6 million, however, no actuarial valuation was performed.

Fiscal Year

Reductions in the ARC

ARC

Budgeted

Contribution

Budgeted

Contrib. as a % of

Unreduced ARC

Compounded at 8.00% annually, these reductions would have a FY 2015 value of $7.23 billion

State Employees Retirement SystemComponents of Pension Liability

26

Based on 6/30/14 Valuation ($ in Thousands)

Retired/Deferred Liability $18,129,796 71.1%

Active – Tier I Hazardous 49,210 0.2%

Active – Tier IB 1,173,883 4.6%

Active – Tier IC 37,752 0.1%

Active – Tier II Hazardous 1,188,011 4.7%

Active – Tier II Others 2,715,216 10.6%

Active – Tier IIA Hazardous 912,872 3.6%

Active – Tier IIA Others 1,057,034 4.1%

Active - Tier III Hazardous 9,672 0.0%

Active - Tier III Hybrid 204,950 0.8%

Active - Tier III Others 27,213 0.1%

Total Accrued Liability $25,505,609

Actuarial Value of Assets 10,584,795

Unfunded Accrued Liability $14,920,814

Normal cost $287,225

Amortization of UAL $1,281,917

FY 2017 Actuarially Determined Employer Contribution (ADEC) $1,569,142

Retired/Deferred Liability , 71.1%

Active – Tier I , 4.9%

Active – Tier II, 15.3%

Active – Tier IIA, 7.7%

Active - Tier III, 0.9%

• $25.5 billion total liability.• $14.9 billion unfunded liability.• Most of that liability is related to already retired

employees.• 81.7% of the actuarially determined employer

contribution is for the unfunded accrued liability.

Fixing Our Pensions

27

Recent steps to address liability include:

1. The 2011 SEBAC agreement:a) Reduced the minimum COLAs and doubled the Early Retirement Reduction

Factor.b) Increased the age for normal retirement eligibility by 3 years for all non-

hazard duty employees who retire after July 1, 2022. c) Tier III was created.

2. In 2012 more conservative actuarial assumptions were adopted which included lowering the assumed rate of investment returns from 8.25% to 8%.

3. The State increased its annual required contribution to the pension system by eliminating the SEBAC IV and V adjustments.

4. OPM engaged the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College to assess both SERS and TRS.

Fixing Our Pensions

28

SERS - Sources of Changes to the Unfunded Accrued Actuarial Liabilities (UAAL)1985 - 2014

1.3

-0.5 -0.5

1.1

4.1

0.1

1.4

12.5

-$4

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

Bill

ion

s Contributions < ARC, 3.2

ARC < UAAL growth, 2.3

Source: Final Report on Connecticut's State Employees Retirement System and Teachers' Retirement System, by CRR

Fixing Our Pensions

29

SERS - Actuarial Costs as a Percent of Payroll

2.2%6.6%

8.0%

7.0%

35.4%

9.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Connecticut SERS National average

Employer UAAL payment

Employer normal cost

Employee contribution


Value of benefits

Fixing Our Pensions

30


Projected Annual Payments for State Employees Retirement System May Top $6.6 Billion by 2032(In Millions)

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

Total Normal Cost of Tiers II, IIA, and III

Tier I Pay As You Go

Total UAAL for Tiers II, IIA, and III

Current Law at 8%

Current Law at 5.5%

Teachers’ Retirement System Contributions

31

$559 $582

$757 $788

$949 $984 $976 $1,012

$1,248 $1,288 $1,330

$170 $176

$90 $210

$59$65

$81$121

$145$134 $133

$120

$140$118

$119

$185 $185

$396 $412

$519 $539

$618 $647

$838

$909

$1,094 $1,118 $1,108 $1,132

$1,388 $1,407 $1,450

$20

$120

$220

$320

$420

$520

$620

$720

$820

$920

$1,020

$1,120

$1,220

$1,320

$1,420

$1,520

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Est. '17Fcst.

'18Fcst.

'19Fcst.

'20Fcst.

Mill

ion

s

Fiscal Year

Debt Service

Surplus Funds

* FY 2018 and beyond reflect the impact of lowering the assumed rate of investment return to 8% from 8.5%.

Fixing Our Pensions

32

The Teachers’ Retirement Board has taken the following steps toward a more sustainable pension plan:

• Reduced the assumed rate of return from 8.5% to 8.0%;

• Adopted more conservative mortality and other assumptions;

• Increased the state’s contributions to the plan; and

• Directed the plan actuary to develop additional funding strategies that could be implemented in order to limit the volatility of future contributions.

Fixing Our Pensions

33

TRS - Sources of Changes to the Unfunded Accrued Actuarial Liabilities (UAAL)1983 - 2014


2.1

-2.01.2

-0.7 0.6-1.0 0.2

2.6

8.5

-$4

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

Bill

ion

s

ARC < UAAL growth, 4.0

Contributions <ARC, 1.5

Fixing Our Pensions

34

TRS - Actuarial Costs as a Percent of Payroll


6.0% 5.6%

3.7%7.4%

19.9%11.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Connecticut TRS National average

Employer UAAL payment

Employer normal cost

Employee contribution

Value of benefits

Fixing Our Pensions

35

CRR has identified several alternatives to the current funding methods for both SERS and TRS.

• Switch from level percent of payroll amortization method to a level dollar.

• Combine the switch to level dollar method with a 15-year open amortization of the UAAL.

• Relax the 2032 full funding date when the plan is 80% funded.

• Lower the current assumed rate of investment return.

• Separately finance the liabilities for Tier 1 members (SERS) and members hired before 1979 (TRS).

State Aid to or Behalf of Local Governments

36

$373 $401 $492 $474$705 $828

$2,724$3,067

$3,300 $3,461$3,421

$3,411

$416

$618

$1,137$1,129

$1,152

$1,432

$3,513

$4,086

$4,929$5,058

$5,258

$5,651

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

FY 2006 FY 2010 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018

(in millions)

Subtotal - General Government Subtotal - Education Subtotal - Teachers' Retirement

Increasing State Support for Public Higher Education

37

*excludes auxiliary functions (food & housing), research and clinical funds

$257 $297 $283 $317 $303 $322$541 $602

$285 $315 $331 $304 $324$406

$430$492

$757$744 $745 $661 $631

$677

$704$741

$801$824 $894

$932 $962

$1,025

$1,026

$1,116

56.5% 56.3%54.6%

50.9%49.8%

51.4%52.5% 52.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

$0

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

$2,500

$2,750

$3,000

$3,250

$3,500

FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

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GO Bond Allocations GF Fringe Benefit Support GF Block Grants & Office of Higher Education Tuition Funds*

Five Year Bond Projections

38

Projected GO Bond Allocations FY 2016 – FY 2020

39

Local School Construction28.0%

Economic Development Programs

13.1%

Municipal Grant Programs7.2%

Housing Programs5.5%

Clean Water Grants6.5%

Board of Regents - State Colleges and Universities

8.5%

University of Connecticut11.6%

All other projects and programs19.5%

Statutory GO Bond Debt Limit

40

FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020

Revenues 11/10/2015 Consensus $15,829,300,000 $16,057,600,000 $16,641,600,000 $17,146,600,000

Multiplier 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

100% Limit $25,326,880,000 $25,692,160,000 $26,626,560,000 $27,434,560,000

Bonds Subject to Limit $22,675,916,632 $23,448,496,644 $24,074,391,075 $24,526,239,604

Debt Incurring Margin $ 2,650,963,368 $ 2,243,663,356 $ 2,552,168,925 $ 2,908,320,396

Percentage of Limit 89.53% 91.27% 90.41% 89.40%

Margin to 90% Limit $118,275,368 $(325,552,644) $(110,487,075) $164,864,396

• In accordance with the General Statutes, the Treasurer computes the aggregate amount of indebtedness as of January 1, and July 1 each year and certifies the results of such computation to the Governor and the General Assembly. If the aggregate amount of indebtedness reaches 90% of the statutory debt limit, the Governor is required to review each bond act for which no bonds, notes or other evidences of indebtedness have been issued, and recommend to the General Assembly priorities for repealing authorizations for remaining projects.

• In order to remain under the 90% limit, new bond authorizations for FY 2018 would need to be reduced by approximately $600 million.

Budget Reserve Fund

41

Budget Reserve Fund Balance(in millions)

42

$93.5

$270.7

$519.2

$406.0

0.0%

0.5%

1.6%

3.0%

2.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

$0.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Fiscal Year

Questions?

43

Documents

FISCAL ACCOUNTABILITY REPORT FISCAL YEARS 2016 2020 · NOVEMBER 18, 2015. Presentation Overview •Summary of OPM projections •Economic factors and revenue trends •Expenditures,