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1 1 First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) First READ Global Conference Moscow Andreas Schleicher Head, Indicators and Analysis Division OECD Directorate for Education

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

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Page 1: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

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Improving the impact of education on economic and

social outcomes

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

First READ Global ConferenceMoscow

Andreas SchleicherHead, Indicators and Analysis Division

OECD Directorate for Education

Page 2: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

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es Better education or lower pay

Large and often growing earning differentials In the current economic environment…

…Opportunity costs for education decline – Dominated by lost earnings, not tuition (US is exception)

…Labour-market entry becomes more difficult– as young graduates compete with experienced workers

…Job prospects for less qualified deteriorate further…Young people with lower qualifications who become unemployed

are likely to spend a long time out of work– In most countries over half of low-qualified unemployed 25-34-year-olds

are long-term unemployed

…Higher risks for systems with significant work-based training…Gaps in educational attainment between younger and older

cohorts likely to widen This suggests educational participation to rise further

In systems where high tuition limits increased participation additional public spending can leverage additional participation and thus additional public benefits

Countries without significant household spending can improve participation through widening funding base .

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Average annual growth in the population with tertiary education

(1998-2006)Tu

rkey

Sp

ain

Irela

nd

Mexic

o

Slo

vak R

ep

ub

lic

Kore

a

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Can

ad

a

Port

ug

al

Czech

Rep

ub

lic

Au

str

ali

a

OEC

D a

vera

ge

Gre

ece

New

Zeala

nd

Hu

ng

ary

Sw

itzerl

an

d

Pola

nd

Fra

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Sw

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en

Au

str

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Belg

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Un

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Kin

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Italy

Den

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Neth

erl

an

ds

Fin

lan

d

Germ

an

y

Jap

an

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Overall population growth Attainment rate growth%

A1.1

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AustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

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15000

20000

25000

30000

1995Ex

pend

iture

per

stu

dent

at t

ertia

ry le

vel (

USD

)

Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college education

Graduate supply

Cost

per

stu

den

t

Page 5: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

AustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

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pend

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per

stu

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at t

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USD

)

Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college education

United States

Finland

Graduate supply

Cost

per

stu

den

t

Page 6: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

AustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

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stu

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college education

Australia

United States (2000)

Finland

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college educationAustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

Page 8: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college educationAustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college educationAustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

Page 10: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college educationAustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

Page 11: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

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2005Ex

pend

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per

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college education

United States

Australia

Finland

Page 12: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

AustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

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15000

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1995Ex

pend

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per

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at t

ertia

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vel (

USD

)

Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college education

United States

Page 13: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

AustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college education

United States

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college educationAustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

United States

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college educationAustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

United States

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pend

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college educationAustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

United States

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college educationAustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

Page 18: First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

AustraliaAustriaCzech RepublicDenmarkFinlandGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenUnited KingdomUnited States

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2005Ex

pend

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Tertiary-type A graduation rate

A world of change – college education

United States

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es Moving targets

Future supply of high school graduates

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

China EU India US

2003

2010

2015

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0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

China EU India US

2003

2010

2015

Future supply of high school graduates

0

2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

10 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

12 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

14 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

China EU India US

2003

2010

2015

Future supply of college graduates

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es How the demand for skills has changed

Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)

1960 1970 1980 1990 200240

45

50

55

60

65 Routine manual

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Nonroutine analytic

Nonroutine inter-active

(Levy and Murnane)

Mean

task in

pu

t as p

erc

en

tile

s o

f t

he 1

960 t

ask d

istr

ibu

tion

The dilemma of schools:The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource

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es Relationship between employment and

unemployment rates for 25-64 year-olds (2007)

A6.5a

Em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te (

%)

Unemployment rate (%)

0 5 10 15 20 2530

40

50

60

70

80

90

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanada

Czech RepublicDenmark

FinlandFrance

GermanyGreece

Hungary

IcelandIreland

ItalyJapanKorea

LuxembourgMexico

Netherlands

New ZealandPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpain

SwedenSwitzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

United StatesOECD averageEU19 averageBrazilEstonia

Israel

Slovenia

Tertiary education

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es Relationship between employment and

unemployment rates for 25-64 year-olds (2007)

A6.5a

Em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te (

%)

Unemployment rate (%)

0 5 10 15 20 2530

40

50

60

70

80

90

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanadaCzech Republic

Denmark

FinlandFranceGermany

GreeceHungary

Iceland

IrelandItalyJapan

KoreaLuxembourgMexico

Netherlands

New ZealandNorway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak RepublicSpain

SwedenSwitzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

United StatesOECD averageEU19 averageBrazilEstonia

Israel

Slovenia

Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary

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es Relationship between employment and

unemployment rates for 25-64 year-olds (2007)

A6.5a

Em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te (

%)

Unemployment rate (%)

0 5 10 15 20 2530

40

50

60

70

80

90

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

FinlandFranceGermany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Italy

KoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Spain

SwedenSwitzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

United StatesOECD averageEU19 average

Brazil

Estonia

Israel

Slovenia

Below upper secondary

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es

DenmarkSwedenNorway

New ZealandFranceTurkey

GermanyAustralia

SpainAustria

BelgiumFinlandCanada

OECD averageKorea

IrelandHungary

PolandCzech RepublicUnited States

ItalyPortugal

-250,000 -150,000 -50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000 350,000 450,000

7,34218,802

23,30640,036

40,26041,090

48,02448,714

55,69560,51963,414

64,66469,235

82,00785,586

104,410127,691

146,539146,673

169,945173,889

186,307

Direct cost Gross earnings benefits Income tax effect Social contribution effect

Transfers effect Unemployment effect Net present value in USD equivalent

USD equivalentA8.3

Components of the private net present value for a male with higher education

Net present value in

USD equivalent

35K$56K$ 367K$105K$27K$ 26K$ 170K$

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Upper secondary and post-secondary

non-tertiary education

Tertiary Education

Public cost and benefits for a male obtaining upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education and tertiary education

Public benefit

s

Public

costs

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

10,34614,23617,19717,85119,75221,28023,87528,19336,73037,586

47,36850,27151,95455,61257,22163,60463,756

74,21994,80496,186100,119

160,834

Net present value, USD equivalent(numbers in orange show

negative values)

A8.5USD equivalent

TurkeyDenmarkSwedenNorway

SpainKorea

CanadaNew Zealand

FranceAustria

AustraliaPortugal

OECD averageFinlandPoland

GermanyItaly

IrelandHungaryBelgium

United StatesCzech Republic

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

2,10935,524

28,76823,350

9,6524,272

14,59911,242

27130,613

11,75523,857

14,05618,058

3,71113,959

5,32512,474

5,06512,314

32,2575,086

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es Supply and demand for young individuals

(25-34 year-olds) to skilled jobs, 1998-2006

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Hungary

Israel

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Norway

OECD average

Poland Portugal

Slovak Republic

Slovenia

SpainSweden

Switzerland

United Kingdom

United States

A1.5 Percentage point change in the proportion of 25-34 year-olds with tertiary education in skilled jobs between 2006 and 1998

Diff

ere

nce in

th

e p

rop

ort

ion

of

25-3

4 y

ear-

old

s a

nd

45-5

4 y

ear-

old

coh

ort

wit

h b

elo

w

tert

iary

ed

ucati

on

in

skille

d job

s

Slowing demand for

higher educated

individuals; Preference

towards older individuals

(experience) over younger with below

tertiary education

Increasing demand for higher

educated individuals;

Employers have fewer choices and

must take younger, less

educated workers to fill skilled

positions

Increasing demand for higher educated

individuals; Demand tends to be satisfied by existing

pool of individuals with tertiary education

Slowing demand for higher educated

individuals; Preference

towards younger individuals over older with below

tertiary education

old

er

Ad

van

tag

e f

or

low

er-

ed

ucate

d

you

ng

er

Slowing Demand for higher-educated Growing

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OECD AverageSlovak RepublicPortugalFinlandBelgiumSwitzerlandSpainPolandNorwayNetherlandsSwedenDenmarkIreland

Czech RepublicGreeceTurkeyGermany

United StatesKoreaItalyCanadaNew Zealand

40

30

20

10 0

10

Health Political interest

Marginal effects of education on self-reported health and political interest

10 0

10

20

30

40

A9.1Yellow and blue bars show non statistically significant countries

ALL 2003WVS 2005

ESS 2004

ESS 2006

ISSP 2004/6WVS 2005

ESS 2004

ESS 2006

Moving from below upper secondary to

upper secondary

Moving from upper secondary

to tertiary

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Cumulative expenditure on educational institutions per student over primary and secondary studies

(2006) Annual expenditure on educational institutions per student multiplied by the

theoretical duration of studies, in equivalent USD converted using PPPs

Lu

xe

mb

ou

rgS

wit

ze

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No

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ustr

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aly

Un

ite

d K

in..

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Au

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ium

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an

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ny

Ne

the

rla

nd

sS

pa

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nd

Ko

rea

Po

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ew

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ala

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ch

Re

pu

...

Hu

ng

ary

Esto

nia

Po

lan

dS

lova

k R

ep

u..

.M

exic

oC

hil

eB

razil

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Primary education Lower secondaryUpper secondary education All secondary educationOECD average (Primary and secondary)

In e

qu

iva

len

t U

SD

usi

ng

PPPs

B1.4

OECD average (primary and secondary)

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Be

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n

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rtu

ga

l

De

nm

ark

Sw

ed

en

Un

ite

d S

ta

te

s

Ne

th

erla

nd

s

Me

xico

Fin

la

nd

Sp

ain

Ca

na

da

Ice

la

nd

Po

la

nd

Un

ite

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in

gd

om

Cze

ch

R

ep

ub

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Slo

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ep

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Ire

la

nd

Ko

re

a

Bra

zil

Hu

ng

ary

Esto

nia

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Change in expenditureChange in the number of students (in full-time equivalents)Change in expenditure per student

Public expenditure only.Public institutions only.Some levels of education are included with others.

Changes in student numbers and expenditurePrimary, secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education

Index of change between 2000 and 2006 (2000=100, 2006 constant prices)In

dex o

f ch

ange (

20

00

=1

00

)

B1.7a

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Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

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rla

nd

Be

lgiu

m (

Fl.)

Ko

rea

Be

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m (

Fr.

)

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ece

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ou

rg

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ny

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Ice

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No

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y

Un

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d S

tate

s

Po

lan

d

Slo

va

k R

ep

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lic

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Salary as % of GDP/capita Instruction time 1/ Teaching time 1/ Estimated class sizePo

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Be

lgiu

m (

Fl.)

Ko

rea

Be

lgiu

m (

Fr.

)

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ece

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ou

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Au

stri

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Au

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ep

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Ice

lan

d

Fin

lan

d

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lan

d

Hu

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ary

No

rwa

y

Un

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d S

tate

s

Po

lan

d

Slo

va

k R

ep

ub

lic

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Difference with OECD average

Contribution of various factors to salary cost per upper secondary student

as a percentage of GDP per capita (2006)Percentage points

B7.1

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es Teachers who received no appraisal or feedback and

teachers in schools that had no school evaluation in the previous five years (2007-08)

Ita

ly

Sp

ain

Po

rtu

ga

l

Ire

lan

d

Bra

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Ice

lan

d

No

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Au

str

ia

Au

str

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a

Be

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m (

Fl.

)

Ma

lta

Tu

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y

Me

xic

o

De

nm

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Po

lan

d

Ko

rea

Slo

ve

nia

Hu

ng

ary

Esto

nia

Slo

va

k R

ep

u..

.

Lit

hu

an

ia

Ma

laysia

Bu

lga

ria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60No appraisal or feedback No school evaluation%

D5.1

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es Perception of teachers of the impact of appraisal and

feedback in their school (2007-08)

80

60

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

Teachers who would receive increased monetary or non-monetary rewards if they improve the quality of their teaching

Teachers who would receive increased monetary or non-monetary rewards if they are more innovative in their teaching

Teachers whose school principal takes steps to alter the monetary rewards of a persistently underperforming teacher

Teachers will be dismissed because of sustained poor performance in teacher's school%

D5.2

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es

Low policy value

High policy value

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low-hanging fruits

Quick wins

Examine individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with

high performance

Establish the relative standing of countries in terms of quality and

equity in basic school subjects

Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed (including ICT)

Measuring growth in learning

A real-time assessment environment that bridges the gap

between formative and summative assessment .

Monitor educational progress

Assuming that every new skill domain is orthogonal

to all others

Specific goals for PISA 2006: an experimental computer-based

assessment of science competencies 2009: assessing digital literacy / electronic

texts 2012: Assessing (collaborative) problem-

solving, assessing dynamic competencies, moving towards electronic delivery of all assessment domains .

• Computer-delivered dynamic assessment task • Adaptive assessment• Feeding student solution strategies

back to learners and teachers

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High ambitions and universal

standards

Rigor, focus and coherence

Great systems attract great teachers and

provide access to best practice and

quality professional development

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es Challenge and support

Weak support

Strong support

Lowchallenge

Highchallenge

Strong performance

Systemic improvement

Poor performance

Improvements idiosyncratic

Conflict

Demoralisation

Poor performance

Stagnation

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es

High ambitions

Access to best practice and quality

professional development

Accountability and intervention in inverse proportion

to success

Devolved responsibility,

the school as the centre of action

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No

Yes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

No

Yes

0

41

46

63

Standards based external

examinations School autonomyin selecting teachers for hire

PISA score in science

School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performance

School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire

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Strong ambitions

Access to best practice and quality

professional development

Accountability

Devolvedresponsibility,

the school as the centre of action

Integrated educational

opportunities

From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment

towards personalised

learning

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es Paradigm shifts

Prescription Informed profession

Uniformity Embracing diversity

Demarcation Collaboration

Provision Outcomes

Bureaucratic – look up Devolved – look outwards

Talk equity Deliver equity

Hit & miss Universal high standards

Received wisdom Data and best practice

The old bureaucratic education system

The modern enabling education system

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