24
First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

First New Entrant to the Potash Industry!

September 2008

Page 2: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Disclaimer

Except for historical information, this presentation contains forward-looking statements, which reflect the Company's current expectation regarding future events. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those statements. Those risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, changing market conditions, and other risks detailed from time-to-time in the Company's ongoing filings. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events in this presentation might not occur.

MagMinerals – Company Presentation Sep 2008 2

Page 3: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

MagPotash

Hydroelectric Developments (DRC)

Forest Products(Eucalyptus)

(ROC)

Kouilou Potash Project(ROC)

Magnesium Alloys(ROC)

100%100% 100%62% F.D.Pre-IPO

3

Page 4: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Republic of Congo – Attractive for Investment

Republic of Congo (ROC)

Location of Kouilou Potash project

Single party dominance, stable country

Population: 3.9 Million

Major multinationals (TOTAL, Chevron-Texaco, ENI) operating uninterrupted for ~30 years

Mag Experience in the ROC

11-year operating history in the ROC (licensed in 1997)

Senior management with deep roots in the country/continent

Largest non-government employer through MagForestry

4

Page 5: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Potash Market Dynamics

Global potash consumption to grow 14 MM tonnes/yr by 2020

Higher crop demand from population growth and biofuels

Global grain restocking and potash catch-up are drivers

India/China have official policies to increase potash use

Most new capacity controlled by major producers (2011+)

MagPotash has one of the only investable near-term production plays outside of the majors

Potash Price Forecast(Brazil CFR)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Bra

zil

cfr

($ /

to

nn

e)

Source: Fertecon

Current: US$600 – US$1,000 per tonne

(June. 2008)

5

Page 6: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Key Potash Import Market: Brazil

Brazil 3rd largest importer of potash

Strong potash demand/limited domestic supply

1Source: Fertecon

+2.62.6 MM

Tonnes/yr

(+59%59%) vs. 2008

+2.62.6 MM

Tonnes/yr

(+59%59%) vs. 2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000'

s Ton

nes

K 20

Imports

Domestic Supply

2008E Demand: 4.9 MM

2008E Demand: 4.9 MM

2020E Demand: 7.6MM

2020E Demand: 7.6MM

6

Page 7: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

MagPotash Location Advantages

Shortest shipping distance to key Brazilian and African markets

CANADA (33%)9,505 n.m.

BRAZIL

BELARUS (19%)5,874 n.m.

RUSSIA (19%)6,259 n.m.

ISRAEL (12%)6,234 n.m.

CONGO (0%)3,556 n.m.

Legend:Country (% of Total Brazil KCl Imports in 2007)

Nautical Mile Shipping Distance

Ports: Pointe-Noire (ROC), Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), Vancouver (Canada), St. Petersburg (Russia), Kaliningrad (Belarus), Tel-Aviv (Israel). Source: Fertecon, www.searates.com.

7

Page 8: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

FOB Pointe-Noire Build-up for Brazil sales

$66 Net Realized Price Advantage vs. Sask.

Notes: Freight and related costs include shipping, storage, stevedoring, insurance, LC charges, technical losses and inspection costs. Freight and related costs based on management estimates.

Free on Rail - Saskatchewan $780

FOB Vancouver Price $820

Free on Rail – MagPotash Facility ~$846

Freight and related costs – PN to Brazil ($54)

CFR Brazil pricing $900

Rail and Handling to Vancouver ($40)

Freight and Related Costs – VCR to Brazil ($80)

8

Page 9: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

MagMinerals in Context

9

Page 10: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Kouilou Potash Plant Design

Proven technology from leading equipment manufacturer (HPD)

Same process as Dead Sea Works facility (Israeli Chemicals)

– Current process in commercial operation since early 1980’s

Scale Model:Scale Model:

Phase I in BluePhase I in Blue

Phase II in Phase II in WhiteWhite

10

Page 11: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

MagMinerals Potash Video

Page 12: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Snapshot of the Kouilou Potash Project

600,000 tpy potash plant

Feasibility study Feb/08

Debt financing Sep/08 Construction start

Oct/08 US$60+MM development costs spent to date

Construction US$723MM

Includes Phase II infrastructure

Mid 2011

Description

Status/Targeted

Timing

Construction Cost Estimate

Production Start-up

Phase Phase I

Target debt-to-equity of 70:30

Project Financing

600,000 tpy expansion

NI 43-101 updated in August 2008

Final feasibility H1 2009

Technical feasibility update (June 2008) indicates US$423 MM

Late 2012 – Early 2013

Phase II

Target debt-to-equity of 70:30

12

Page 13: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Blue Chip Project Team

Feasibility study

One of the leading groups of engineering and construction companies in the world

Active in 100 countries worldwide

Potash marketing / off-take

International grain and fertilizer trader with 1,100+ employees

Leading position in Brazilian market

Sells 10 million tons of fertilizer, 3 million tons of grain and sizeable petrochemical and metal volumes annually

Crystallization equipment

Global leader in evaporation and crystallization technology

Over 650 installations in 30+ countries

Veolia Environnement subsidiary, world’s largest environmental company

Financial project advisor

Nº6 in the banking industry (‘Global 2000 Forbes’ 2007)

Operates in over 85 countries and has 162,700 employees

13

Page 14: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Blue Chip Project Team

E+PC

Engineering Procurement Contracting Management

E+PC is part of the publicly-listed AVENG group located in Johannesburg, South Africa

AVENG is the largest EPCM contractor in S.A. with over 30,000 employees and extensive project experience in Africa

Construction Management

A leading construction, engineering, procurement and development company

140,000+ employees; emphasis on the Middle East and Africa

ERCOSPLAN Solution

Mining Experts

Long-term support contract with access to experts for reserve evaluation, solution mining technology and operations

NORBERT GRÜSCHOW

Solution Mining Expert

MagMinerals Advisory Board

Chief technology advisor, solution mining, preproduction and commercialization

Mentor and trainer of junior resources

Manage cavern development R&D plan

3 year commitment

14

Page 15: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Exclusive Rights to Significant Resource

Drill holes completed historically (1965-1990) 118

Production wells drilled (2006-2007) 12

Proven and Probable Reserve Life (@ 600k tpy) 54 years

43-101 Inferred Reserves (KCl) 209 MMt

43-101 Proven & Probable Reserves (KCl) 33.5 MMt

Mineral Exploration Area = 1,472 km2

Exploitation Permit = 136 km2

Resource Report(NI43-101) = 25 km2

15

Page 16: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Low Cost Operation

Transportation cost advantages– Only 27km to 10 acre port site– ~US$18-40/tonne freight savings vs.

inland competitors– Shortest sailing distance to Brazil

Low cost energy access– 25-year natural gas supply

agreement in documentation stage– Allows low cost, short construction time solution mining

application

Positive labour conditions– Available low cost local labour– Strong reputation through MagForestry

Potential for best economics in the industry

16

Page 17: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

• 25-year mining license secured

Accomplishing Milestones - 2008

25-Year Mining License Secured$101MM Financing CompletedVeteran CEO Joins Team

Ameropa Off-take Agreement

Strategic Investors Fund $105MMNatural Gas Supply

Update of Reserve Estimate

Construction Progress

Finalize Potash Investment AgmtListing of Shares on TSX

March 25, 2008

• $101 million for MagMinerals ($4.00 per share)

• 5% dilution penalty if public-listing not met by Oct. 3, 2008

• Broad institutional participation

• Construction deposit, site prep, and €15MM loan repayment

April 2008

17

Page 18: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

• Willy Verbrugghe joins as CEO

• International experience with Westinghouse Energy, Kollmorgen, Sermatech, PCC Flow Technologies and Vehoco

• Participated or led in build-out of large industrial projects in various countries

• Holds 3 masters degrees (science, engineering, business), speaks 5 languages and has lived in 4 countries

Accomplishing Milestones - 2008

25-Year Mining License Secured$101MM Financing CompletedVeteran CEO Joins Team

Ameropa Off-take Agreement

Strategic Investors Fund $105MM

May 1, 2008

Natural Gas Supply

Update of Reserve Estimate

Construction Progress

Finalize Potash Investment AgmtListing of Shares on TSX

18

Page 19: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

• Ameropa awarded exclusive 12-year potash marketing agreement

Governs the sale of 1.2MM tpy of potash (both Phases)

• Ameropa announces a $70MM strategic investment ($5.00/sh)

• Announced $35MM strategic investment by the president of a top ROC construction firm ($12 MM cash + $23MM paid-in-kind)

• Both strategics expected to contribute to success of project

Accomplishing Milestones - 2008

25-Year Mining License Secured$101MM Financing CompletedVeteran CEO Joins Team

Ameropa Off-take Agreement

Strategic Investors Fund $105MM

June 27, 2008

Natural Gas Supply

Update of Reserve Estimate

Construction Progress

Finalize Potash Investment AgmtListing of Shares on TSX

19

Page 20: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

• Official minutes outlining natural gas supply understanding between ROC government, ENI and Mag

• Formal supply agreement with ENI in drafting

• Pipeline construction started

Accomplishing Milestones - 2008

25-Year Mining License Secured$101MM Financing CompletedVeteran CEO Joins Team

Ameropa Off-take Agreement

Strategic Investors Fund $105MMNatural Gas Supply

July 2008

Update of Reserve Estimate

Construction Progress

Finalize Potash Investment AgmtListing of Shares on TSX

20

Page 21: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Accomplishing Milestones - 2008

25-Year Mining License Secured$101MM Financing CompletedVeteran CEO Joins Team

Ameropa Off-take Agreement

Strategic Investors Fund $105MMNatural Gas Supply

• Ercosplan provided update of 43-101 reserve report (released August 2008)

Update of NI43-101 Reserve Estimate

• Site earthworks preparation started• Long lead time items contracted• All major purchasing packages being

prepared

Construction Progress

• Gas, rail and port agreements complete

• Water & construction permits• ESIA agreement

Potash Investment Agreement

• Filed preliminary prospectus in Canada on August 25, 2008

Listing of Shares

Update of Reserve Estimate

Construction Progress

Finalize Potash Investment AgmtListing of Shares on TSX

21

Page 22: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

NPV Sensitivity to Pricing

Sensitivity to Potash Pricing*

Current NPV Assumptions*

Discount Rate: 12.0%

Terminal Value: 7.5x EBITDA

Terminal Year: 2035

NPV per Share $31.85Pricing assumptions:(Fertecon Brazil cfr forecast less est. freight & other) $0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Net

-Bac

k P

rici

ng

Po

inte

No

ire

($ /

ton

ne)

22

*Assumes $82 MM Phase I equity offering at $5.00/share and $160 MM Phase II offering at $12.00/share.

Brazil Potash Price (Cost & Freight )(US$ / Tonne)

$600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600

NPV per Share $10.93 $17.45 $23.96 $30.48 $36.99 $43.51

CFPS $2.40 $3.57 $4.73 $5.90 $7.06 $8.23

Page 23: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

MagPotash Ownership

23

Pre-IPO F.D. Shares %MagIndustries 96,000,000 62.4%Ameropa 14,000,000 9.3%Interco Potash* 7,000,000 4.6%Other Investors 25,250,000 16.7%Employee Options 10,500,000 7.0%

Total 152,750,000 100.0%

*Formerly Portonovo - reflects 2,431,843 cash purchase and 4,568,157 to be issued for services rendered by Socofran.

Page 24: First New Entrant to the Potash Industry! September 2008

Investment Highlights

Pure play exposure to attractive potash sector

Exclusive rights to large potash carnallite deposit

Strategic location relative to high demand potash end-markets

Proximity to high-capacity port with existing rail capabilities

Significant input and operating cost advantages

Blue chip project team of engineers, contractors, equipment providers and financiers

Construction to begin in H2 2008

Senior management with deep roots in the country/continent

Compelling valuation with well-defined growth potential

24