Airport Link

Phase 2 – Detailed Feasibility Study

CHAPTER 16

ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS

October 2006

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Contents

1. Scope 1 1.1 Environmental Impact Statement Terms of Reference 1 1.2 Project Definition 2 1.3 Northern Busway Integration 6 1.4 Approach 7

2. Economic Environment 8 2.1 Existing Economic Environment 8 2.2 Future Economic Environment 20

3. Strategic Assessment Property Economic Impacts 25 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 Classification of the benefits and impacts of the Preferred Location 25 3.3 Study Environment 26 3.4 Market Acceptance 34 3.5 The Property Economic Impact of the Projects Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.6 Impact Assessment 37 3.7 Future (post 2012 with both Projects in place) 40 3.8 Conclusion 41

4. Airport Link Cost Benefit Analysis Modelling 43 4.1 Introduction 43 4.2 Scope 43 4.3 CBA Do Minimum (Base Case) and Project Case 44 4.4 CBA Modelling Items and Assumptions 47 4.5 Airport Link CBA Model Results 52 4.6 Travel Time Savings 54 4.7 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings 56 4.8 Road Safety Benefits 58 4.9 Environment and Externality Benefits 60 4.10 Sensitivity Analysis 63 4.11 Induced Travel Demand 64 4.12 Conclusion 64

5. Computable General Equilibrium Modelling 66 5.1 Introduction 66 5.2 Study Method 66 5.3 Results 70

6. Project Justification – Economic Perspective 83

Appendix A – Street Level Survey Business Activity Maps

Appendix B – Traffic Modelling Inputs into CBA

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Appendix C – CBA Findings Summary Sheets

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1. Scope

1.1 Environmental Impact Statement Terms of Reference The economics section of the EIS report addresses the economic impact issues that are included in the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the Airport Link Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). The TOR have been prepared by the Co-ordinator General in accordance with the requirements of the State Development and Public Works Organisation Act 1971.

The objectives of the economics component of the EIS are:

• To identify potential economic impacts and to inform the Project Team so that the adverse impacts are avoided or mitigated and managed where possible; and

• To identify potential economic benefits from the Project that may accrue to the South East Queensland Region.

The TOR states that there should be sufficient detail in the EIS to enable readers to identify and understand the benefits of the Project, and to balance those against the impacts of the Project on the natural, social, economic and built environment with regard to mitigating the adverse impacts. There may well be specific capital costs that may be incurred to offset social and environmental impacts such as noise barriers, air filtering etc. Where possible, these impacts will be identified and reported in the Economics deliverables for the EIS.

The TOR also requires that the EIS should include analysis of the cumulative impacts on economic values directly caused by the Project. That is, the cumulative impacts must be considered over time and in conjunction with other major projects approved or known to be proceeding at the time of commencement of operations of the Project.

The TOR for the Airport Link EIS explicitly identifies which sections of the final EIS document should report the findings of the economic analysis namely:

• Background and Project Rationale including strategic economic context and economic justification including employment and business opportunities;

• Project description;

• Description of the existing economic environment; and

• Assessment of the future economic environment with the Airport Link Project within a framework that includes:

- A clear definition of the economic objectives and scope of the Project, including the extent of the study corridor for the purpose of economic assessment;

- Set and justify a timeframe for analysis that reflects the economic life of the principal asset;

- Identify and justify an appropriate Project-specific discount rate;

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- Identify and examine all costs and benefits of the Project including user benefits (such as travel time savings, reduced vehicle operating costs and safety improvements), benefits to the broader community through transport network effects (induced travel, modal shifts etc), socio-economic effects (employment) and environmental effects; and

- Appropriate testing of sensitivity of key parameters.

1.2 Project Definition The Airport Link Project is the northern part of Project TransApex, which proposes a tri-axis based framework of strategic road connections that would allow Brisbane’s cross-city travel movements to bypass the Central Business District and inner suburbs.

The proposed Airport Link Project comprises two 6 km long underground toll roads located 50 metres below the surface between Bowen Hills and Kedron/Toombul, with an estimated risk adjusted undiscounted construction cost of $2.3 billion.

Lutwyche Road, beneath which the Airport Link will be constructed, carries 65,000 vehicles per day. During the AM and PM peaks, and to a lesser extent other business hours, traffic on Lutwyche Rd is extremely congested. Latest traffic studies show that without Airport Link, this number will increase to more than 100,000 vehicles by 2026. With the Airport Link Project constructed, peak traffic on Lutwyche Road would be reduced by up to 30 percent.

The objective of the Project is to improve traffic conditions and flows to the northern suburbs of Brisbane and to improve road access to Brisbane’s international and domestic airports. The Airport Link has proposed connections at Gympie Road (Kedron), Sandgate Road (Toombul), East-West Arterial (Toombul) in the north, and would link with the Inner City Bypass (ICB) and the planned North-South Bypass Tunnel (NSBT) at Bowen Hills in the south (Figure 1-1).

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Figure 1-1 Proposed Airport Link Corridor

In addition, there is a potential to later include a cross-link from Stafford Road and Gympie Road to Sandgate Road and the East-West Arterial at Toombul to cater for northern originating traffic to the airports. This later Project is not included in the scope of this economic impact analysis.

The concept design for the Airport Link Project will include the following features:

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• Two separate, parallel road tunnels, one for north-bound traffic and one for south-bound traffic;

• Three lanes in each direction from North-South Bypass Tunnel connection to Gympie Road connection. Two lanes in each direction from Gympie Road connection to East West Arterial connection;

• One lane in each direction for the Interim Northern Busway;

• Tunnel portals at Bowen Hills, Gympie Road and East West Arterial for Airport Link;

• Tunnel portals at Stoneleigh Street, north of Norman Avenue, south of Stafford Road, at Sadlier Road (Northbound) and at Broughton Street (Southbound) for Interim Northern Busway;

• Safety systems including engineering egresses, fire protection and monitoring systems;

• A ventilation system to manage air quality in the tunnel and near portals including elevated outlets near the portals in Bowen Hills, Kedron and Toombul for Airport Link;

• Surface road changes to connect the tunnels to the existing road/bus network;

• Tunnel Control Centre which controls all aspects of the operation of the tunnel including traffic management, incident management, ventilation and other services, and interfaces with the broader road network;

• Traffic management systems including signage, lighting, CCTV and radio/mobile rebroadcast capability; and

• Electronic tolling, plant monitoring and control systems.

The Airport Link Project is strategically identified as a solution to road congestion in the north eastern inner Brisbane that provides:

• A continuation of the North-South Bypass Tunnel north to Wooloowin and Sandgate Road, Gympie Road and Airport Drive with an East-West Connection from Stafford / Gympie Road;

• A key connection between other elements of TransApex, such as the North-South Bypass Tunnel and the Northern Link, Brisbane Airport and other key travel generators in the Australia TradeCoast region;

• A degree of secondary connectivity for radial movements providing for city connections;

• An opportunity to free up service road space and thus provide for public transport initiatives such as the Interim Northern Busway, Transit Orientated Developments and urban renewal opportunities;

• More specifically, Airport Link would greatly improve access between Brisbane’s CBD and the northern suburbs. In particular, the tunnels would provide a vital link to the Brisbane Airport and other north river sections of the Australia TradeCoast precinct (Figure 1-2).

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• Figure 1-2 Proposed Airport Link with Links to ICB and NSBT

Latest traffic studies show that in 2012, motorists would receive benefits from the Airport Link including:

• Reduced travel time from Fortitude Valley to Hendra by about 8 minutes compared to the trip without Airport Link;

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• Reduced traffic on Lutwyche Road and Sandgate Road by up to 25%. This would free up road space on these key arterials which would allow for improved public transport services;

• Reduced cross town travel between Chermside and Fortitude Valley by up to 45%; and

• Reduced travel time between Hendra and Fortitude Valley by up to 40%.

1.3 Interim Northern Busway Integration The Interim Northern Busway Project is in the detailed feasibility stage and an analysis of whether or not the Interim Northern Busway Project should be procured with Airport Link has been considered in five sections. Each section of the Interim Northern Busway, and its likely interface with the Airport Link is shown in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 Proposed Interim Northern Busway Likely Interface with Airport Link

Section Section Details Description

1 Royal Children’s Hospital to Northey Street

Significant capital works, predominantly bridging structure, station near the hospital, insignificant interaction with Airport Link

2 and 3 Northey Street to Stoneleigh Street

Relatively smaller scale capital works consisting predominantly of at-grade bus prioritising works (i.e. interim works which should be replaced in time by the ultimate configuration). Section 2 may have physical interaction with North South Bypass Tunnel (NSBT) and Airport Link depending on how these projects interact with Lutwyche Road; and

4 and 5 Stoneleigh Street to Sadlier Road

Significant capital works, predominantly tunnel structure at Lutwyche and Kedron, significant physical local interaction with Airport Link particularly at the Kedron Brook end and at worksites.

There are significant benefits for joint delivery of the Interim Northern Busway Section 4 and 5 with Airport Link. This is due largely due to the considerable level of capital works in close proximity to Airport Link, the similarities of those works and the ramifications and benefits that this creates for both Projects. Drivers include innovative design, construction efficiencies, operational efficiencies, risk management and the management of impacts relating for example to work sites and spoil. These various benefits should lead to better outcomes for the community, better service outcomes and potential cost savings.

It is not envisaged that Sections 1, 2 or 3 would be integrated with Airport Link. Construction activity for Section 1 in the vicinity of Royal Brisbane / Womens Hospital (RBWH) is predominantly bridgework, and hence there is less potential for construction efficiencies with Airport Link. In addition, the physical locality of the two Projects is largely, if not totally separate (including potential worksites).

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In relation to Sections 2 and 3 of the Interim Northern Busway Project, the nature of the work to be undertaken is quite different to Section 4 and 5. Sections 2 and 3 have comparatively very low capital costs and relatively large potential for community impacts from a traffic and land use perspective.

1.4 Approach The overriding economic objective of the Airport Link Project is concerned with improving the economic efficiency of transport in the Brisbane road network. Increasing congestion and road network unreliability result in socio-economic disbenefits costs to the community and quantifiable additional costs to businesses.

From an economic perspective, the Airport Link should be aiming to achieve the following:

• Improved transport efficiency (i.e. travel time savings, reduced vehicle operating costs, reducing congestion and enhancing road safety) for the community, business and transport suppliers;

• Improved journey time reliability of the network so that it will enhance the competitiveness of regional and state economies;

• Wider economic impacts including better accessibility and corridor investment; and

• Noise, air quality, health (road safety) and other amenity improvements; and to obtain value for money from any public expenditure to be allocated to the Project.

The economics component of the Airport Link EIS addresses the above objectives and the TOR covers the following tasks:

• Identification of existing economic activities including a street-level survey along the proposed alignment;

• Description and assessment of future economic activities in the proposed Airport Link corridor;

• Review of public planning documents and the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Brisbane Long Term Planning Economic Indicators study;

• Development of an Airport Link Cost Benefit Analysis Model to provide investment findings to assess the economic viability of the Project in terms of travel time savings, vehicle operating costs savings, road safety savings, environmental and external savings;

• Simulation of the Monash University's Centre of Policy Studies (COPS) CGE Model to assess the broader regional and state economic impacts of the Project;

• Strategic assessment of the corridor that identifies and assesses potential areas for future development; and

• Identification and assessment of other economic considerations that may be a result of the proposed Airport Link Project.

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2. Economic Environment

2.1 Existing Economic Environment

2.1.1 Introduction

This section of the report presents the findings of an investigation of the existing and future economic environment for the area affected by the proposed Airport Link Project.

An analysis of the existing economic area affected by the proposed Airport Link Project includes the following tasks:

• Detailed analysis of the major economic centres that would have improved access as a result of the proposed tunnel;

• Street level survey of economic activities located within the core routes of the Airport Link corridor; and

• Assessment of the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Brisbane Long Term Planning Economic Indicators study (October 2005).

2.1.2 Major Economic Centres Impacted by the Proposed Airport Link

The proposed Airport Link tunnel would provide improved road network access and result in significant benefits to the following major economic centres:

• Brisbane Airport;

• Port of Brisbane;

• Australia TradeCoast including TradeCoast Central (northern side of Brisbane River);

• Centro Toombul Shopping Centre; and

• Westfield Chermside Shopping Centre.

Each of these centres depends for their success on high capacity transport access. Because of their geographic situation in relation to the tunnel alignment there can be little doubt that Airport Link will have an effect on each of them to greater or lesser degree. From an economic point of view it is important to understand the performance and projected future of each centre so as to understand the broader improvements to regional prosperity that may be able to be supported by Airport Link.

Other commercial and industrial land uses north of the Brisbane River within the influence of the Project are:

• Port of Brisbane's Eagle Farm Estate, comprising 26 hectares which accommodates industrial warehousing, commercial offices and distribution;

• Private commercial and industrial parks in the Gateway North area around Eagle Farm, Pinkenba, Hamilton and Hendra; and

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• Other major industrial and commercial estates in the Outer North area including Geebung, Zillmere, Banyo, Brendale, Narangba and Burpengary.

The local shopping centres of Stafford City Shopping Centre and Centro Lutwyche Shopping Centre are also in the geographic catchment of the Airport Link tunnel. The latter has been addressed in the street level survey work.

2.1.3 Brisbane Airport

Background

The Brisbane Airport occupies a 2,700 hectare site to the north of the CBD and is Australia’s third busiest airport in terms of passenger movement numbers. The Brisbane Airport is owned and operated by Brisbane Airport Corporation Limited (BACL) under a long term lease (50 year plus an option for an additional 40 years) from the Commonwealth of Australia. The new domestic terminal was opened in 1988 while the new international terminal was opened in 1995. Road access to the terminals and on-site airport businesses is via Airport Drive from the East-West Arterial and Gateway Motorway. The Airtrain rail link provides rail access from the domestic and international terminals to the Brisbane Citytrain network and onto the Gold Coast. The airport has 24 hour operations (no curfew) and contains approximately 130 businesses that employ in excess of 8,000 full time staff. More than 18,000 people (inclusive of full time employees) are directly dependent on the airport’s activities for their income.

Passengers and Freight

Total revenue passenger movements at Brisbane Airport were 15.4 million for the year ending 2004-05 comprising of 11.9 million domestic air passengers and 3.5 million international air passengers. Total passenger movements have increased from 9.2 million in 1995-2006 to 15.4 million in 2004-05 at an average annual growth rate of 6.7% (refer Figure 2.1).

Figure 2.1 Brisbane Total Revenue Passenger Growth (%) (1995-2005)

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Over the same ten year same period, domestic passenger movements have increased from 7.2 million to 11.9 million (refer Figure 2.2) at an average annual growth rate of 6.6%. International passenger movements have also exhibited solid increases from 2.1 million to 3.5 million at an average annual growth rate of 6.9%.

Figure 2.2 Brisbane Airport Passenger Movements - International and Domestic (1995-2005)

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Domestic International

Since 2001-02, total air passenger movements through Brisbane Airport have increased from 11.8 million to 15.4 million at an average annual growth rate of 10.1%. The last two years have seen total movements increase by 16.4% and 11.5% respectively. Domestic passenger movements over the past three years have increased by a total of 27% or at an average annual rate of 9% while international passenger movements have exhibited an even higher increase of 40% or an average annual growth rate of 13.5%.

The increase in air passenger movements at Brisbane Airport over the past decade, and significantly over the past three years, has increased pressure on the road network that feeds to the airport. This is particularly evident during the local AM and PM traffic peaks in and around the network on the Gateway Arterial between Nudgee Road and the Kingsford Smith Drive that coincide with the peaks for domestic aircraft arrivals and departures. There have been significant increases in both domestic and international passenger movements since 2001-02. The year immediately prior to 2001-02 saw a downturn in aviation activity in Australia that resulted from the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, the demise of Ansett, the SARS epidemic and the recessive economic conditions in Australia and internationally.

Air freight carried through Brisbane Airport was 152,710 tonnes in 2004/05 comprising of 98,694 tonnes in international air freight and 54,013 tonnes in domestic air freight.

Airport Development

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Over the past 9 years, BACL has invested over $450 million in significant development works as part of its strategic vision to transform Brisbane Airport from a traditional state capital air passenger hub to the Airport City concept. Most importantly, BACL has produced the Brisbane Airport 2003 Master Plan which contains the planning framework for the development of the airport to 2023. The implementation of the master plan has commenced and existing and future developments at the airport will create significant business, industry and employment opportunities for the Brisbane and the SEQ region.

2.1.4 Port of Brisbane

The Port of Brisbane, particularly its port facilities at Fisherman Islands, is a major driver of economic activity in South East Queensland and Queensland. The Port of Brisbane is Australia’s fastest growing port and Australia’s third largest container port. The port’s trade provides a reliable barometer of broader economic activity in South East Queensland

While the port facilities will not have direct road connectivity via the Airport Link, heavy vehicle traffic will use the road network including the proposed Airport Link for origin and destination freight movements. Total cargo trade through the Port of Brisbane has been rising steadily over the past decade, increasing from 18.8 million tonnes in 1995/96 to 26 million tonnes in 2004/05 at an average annual growth rate of 3.8%. Container throughput at the port has increased significantly over the same period from 249,439 containers in 1995/96 to 726,145 containers in 2004/05 at an average annual growth rate of 19.1% (refer Figure 2.3). The port accounts for over $7 billion of total overseas commodity exports (91.4%) from South East Queensland.

Figure 2.3 Port of Brisbane – Trends in Container Volumes (1995-2005)

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The use of heavy vehicles to move containers into and out of the port from various industrial locations and depots in South East Queensland and beyond has a major impact on the local arterial road

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network. This existing trade results in significant heavy vehicle traffic from the north and south via the Gateway Motorway to the Port's Fisherman Islands facilities and to a lesser extent via major arterials such as Lutwyche Road.

2.1.5 Australia TradeCoast (ATC)

The ATC is Brisbane and South East Queensland’s (SEQ) primary trade and industrial area. Encompassing both the Port of Brisbane, Brisbane Airport and about 8,000 hectares of land, the area is now recognised one of Australia’s leading industrial, commercial and logistics centres and a key existing and future generator of output and employment.

In addition to the port facilities, the Port of Brisbane Corporation has land that that has been and/or will be developed for industrial, commercial uses on both sides of the Brisbane River including Fisherman Islands Port of Brisbane Business Park, Whyte Island Industrial Estate, Colmslie Business Park and Eagle Farm Industrial Estate.

There are a number of other significant existing or planned industrial estates / business parks with the ATC including:

• Metroplex on Gateway (Murrarie);

• Gateway Business Park (Murrarie);

• Murrarie Business Park;

• Rivergate Marine and Industry Park (Murrarie);

• Portlink Industrial Park (Hemmant / Queensport); and

• Gateway Industrial Precinct (Pinkenba). The Queensland Government, through the Department of State Development and Innovation (DSDI), has also been directly involved in developing three industrial estates within the ATC:

• The Lytton Industrial Estate which has recently seen the release of the final 28 lots;

• Hamilton Industrial Estate (now completed); and

• Murrarie Development Precinct. Brisbane City Council’s Trade Coast Central Stage 1 Project, covering 36 hectares of the 154 hectare old Brisbane Airport site is scheduled to come on line in late 2006. The remaining 110 hectares have been reserved for industrial and commercial use with lot sizes of 5,000 sqm to 10 hectares respectively.

The current limited supply of available industrial and commercial land has put pressure on leases with increases around 10 – 15% over 2005. Freehold land values have also increased significantly over the same period.

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Outer North

Industry sources have identified that Brisbane’s northern industrial activities are gradually shifting to the outskirts of the metropolitan area at Brendale, Narangba, Burpengary and some parcels of land at North Lakes. Further releases of industrial land have also occurred in the Banyo Industrial Estate, Northlink Business Park (Banyo) and in Zillmere. It is estimated that these Outer North additions to industrial land in 2005 were around 140,000 sqm or 18% of total industrial land released in the metropolitan area. Around 124,000 sqm of any new industrial land is proposed to be released in 2006 in this emerging area.

The significance of the Outer North Industrial land to this assessment is its link with the Gympie Road and Bruce Highway corridors. Further growth in the outer north will have impacts on the proposed Airport Link for cross-city commercial trips from the South and Western corridors. From a road network perspective, these developments in the Australia Trade Coast, and particularly future development in the Trade Coast Central and the Outer North, will generate increased traffic activity in the Airport Link Corridor.

Road infrastructure is vital to the effective and efficient operations of existing industrial estates and to the future development of new estates. The continued strength of the Queensland economy and substantial population growth in the SEQ of around 2.5% per annum will continue to drive the commercial and industrial property market and the employment that it generates.

2.1.6 Street level survey

Scope

A street survey was undertaken to identify economic establishments that comprise the existing economic environment located directly in the corridor. The following data was collected from the street level survey:

• Business Name;

• Location; and

• Business Type.

This analysis focused on the surface road areas in the Bowen Bridge Rd/Lutwyche Rd and Junction Rd areas between Herston to Kedron and Kedron to Toombul. To assist with the identification of the existing environment, the street level survey was conducted along two sections, namely:

• Bowen Bridge Road (Bowen Hills) to the corner of Gympie Road and Stafford Road (Kedron) - Bowen Hills heading north down Bowen Bridge / Lutwyche Road to the Gympie Road / Stafford Road intersection at Kedron; and

• Junction Road (Eagle Junction) to East-West Arterial (Toombul) - Eagle Junction train station at Eagle Junction down Junction Road to the Sandgate Road / East-West Arterial intersection at Toombul.

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Data collected from the street level survey were coded according to the 3-Digit Australian New Zealand Standard Industry Classification (ANZSIC) and then aggregated to industry group level.

Economic Activity

A total of 483 businesses were identified from the street survey with the most common business type being “Clothing and Soft Good Retailing” at 9.7% (47 out of a total 483 businesses). This was particularly evident in the Junction Road to Toombul section with over 68% of this business type being located in this section (32 out of a possible 57). This was marginally higher than “Furniture, Houseware and Appliance Retailing” and “Other Personal and Household Good Retailing” which both represented 9.5% of the total sample (a combined 92 out of a possible 483).

“Specialised Food Retailing” and “Cafes and Restaurants” represented less than 15% of the total sample (combined 71 out of a total 483). 22 businesses classified as “Specialised Food Retailing” are located in the Centro Toombul Shopping Centre.

The major economic generators that would be impacted by the Airport Link Project that are located directly in the corridor are the combined Royal Children’s Hospital (RCH), Royal Brisbane and Royal Women’s Hospital (RBWH), Centro Lutwyche Shopping Centre and Centro Toombul Shopping Centre. Both will be discussed in more detail later in this report.

In addition to the major economic generators identified above, the following economic or community generators (including education) were identified from the street survey:

• RNA Show Grounds

• Citilink Business Centre;

• Royal Brisbane Professional Centre;

• Homemaker City;

• Office Works;

• Crown Hotel;

• Kedron Park Hotel;

• Department of Emergency Services Complex;

• Kedron State High School; and

• Windsor State School.

Table 2.1 highlights the Business Type by 3-Digit ANZSIC Business Classification with greater than 1% of the total sample located in the Airport Link corridor.

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Table 2.1 Business Type by 3-Digit ANZSIC Business Classification with Greater than 1% of Total Sample)

Industry Code

Industry Bowen Hills to Stafford Rd

Junction Rd to Toombul

Total by Industry

Percentage

522 Clothing and Soft Good Retailing 15 32 47 9.7%

523 Furniture, Houseware and Appliance Retailing

29 17 46 9.5%

525 Other Personal and Household Good Retailing

13 33 46 9.5%

512 Specialised Food Retailing 7 35 42 8.7%

524 Recreational Good Retailing 11 20 31 6.4%

573 Cafes and Restaurants 21 8 29 6.0%

951 Personal and Household Goods Hiring 12 11 23 4.8%

863 Other Health Services 11 6 17 3.5%

731 Central Bank 8 8 16 3.3%

862 Medical and Dental Services 6 6 12 2.5%

531 Motor Vehicle Retailing 11 0 11 2.3%

712 Telecommunication Services 3 8 11 2.3%

532 Motor Vehicle Services 10 0 10 2.1%

811 Government Administration 10 0 10 2.1%

952 Other Personal Services 9 0 9 1.9%

772 Real Estate Agents 6 2 8 1.7%

784 Legal and Accounting Services 7 1 8 1.7%

511 Supermarket and Grocery Stores 4 3 7 1.4%

733 Other Financiers 7 0 7 1.4%

872 Community Care Services 7 0 7 1.4%

571 Accommodation 6 0 6 1.2%

751 Services to Finance and Investment 0 6 6 1.2%

783 Computer Services 6 0 6 1.2%

933 Other Recreation Services 6 0 6 1.2%

871 Child Care Services 4 1 5 1.0%

Appendix A provides activity maps of the Business Types by 3-Digit ANZSIC Business Classification for the Airport Link corridor.

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Bowen Bridge Road (Herston) to the corner of Gympie Road and Stafford Road (Kedron)

The Lutwyche Road Gympie Road corridor from Bowen Bridge Road (Herston) to the corner of Gympie Road and Stafford Road (Kedron) is a key health, retail, commercial, education and business corridor located in close proximity to the city. The proposed Airport Link tunnel could provide significant commercial and urban renewal opportunities in this section of Lutwyche Road if the tunnel was to proceed.

A total of 277 businesses were identified between Bowen Bridge Road (Bowen Hills) to the corner of Gympie Road and Stafford Road (Kedron). This does not include the specific services and retail activity located within the RCH and RBWH hospitals.

The combined Royal Childrens Hospital (RCH) and Royal Brisbane Womens Hospital (RBWH) employs over 5,000 staff and are key economic and community generators in the corridor. The complex is located on the western side of Bowen Bridge Road diagonally across from the Royal National Association (RNA) show grounds. It shares it grounds with the Queensland Institute of Medical Research and provides the campus for health professional education and conference facilities through the Clinical School of Faculty Medicine and the RBRW complex.

Some existing business activities opposite the hospital in Butterfield Street are zoned General Industry properties, which and are no longer supported by the current town plan. The Butterfield Street (Herston) precinct could represent a significant opportunity for future transport related development or hospital related development. The hospital is critical infrastructure for local, regional, and state economies, and will be instrumental in the future land use planning for the precinct.

Located diagonally across from the hospitals is the RNA showgrounds which hosts the historical annual Exhibition (EKKA) event, as well as trade shows and other events. Although no decisions or approvals for implementation are known to be in place, a 10 year capital works program could be involved across the 22 hectare site.

As shown if Figure 2.5, the most common business type between Bowen Bridge Road to the corner of Gympie Road and Stafford Road by ANZSIC Classification was “Furniture, Houseware and Appliance Retailing” which represented 29 businesses. This is the combined result of Homemaker City and Centro Lutwyche Shopping Centre.

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Figure 2.5 Top 10 Business Types by ANZSIC Business Classification located in the section Bowen Bridge Road (Bowen Hills) to corner of Gympie Road and Stafford Road (Kedron)

29

21

15

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11

11

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Furniture, Houseware and Appliance Retailing

Cafes and Restaurants

Clothing and Soft Good Retailing

Other Personal and Household Good Retailing

Personal and Household Goods Hiring

Recreational Good Retailing

Other Health Services

Motor Vehicle Retailing

Motor Vehicle Services

Government Administration

Number of Businesses

The Centro Lutwyche Shopping centre is located on the corner of Lutwyche Road and Chalk Street and accommodates over 50 retail businesses. The centre is located 5 km from the city in a strong residential, high density population centre. The centre has two levels of parking, one level of retail, and one level of suites. The Department of Employment & Training, Department of Emergency Services and Department of Families all have branches in the centre.

Homemaker City is located on the corner of the Newmarket Road and Gympie Road. Homemaker City has a range of stores including Freedom Furniture, Oz Design, Early Settler Furniture and Beacon Lighting. It has a total retail space of just over 9,463 square metres and car spaces located at the front for 180 vehicles.

The Department of Emergency Services has its head office located on the corner of Lutwyche Road and Kedron Park Road. The complex houses services including Queensland Fire and Rescue, Queensland Ambulance, Counter Disaster Rescue Services and the State Disaster Coordination Centre.

Stafford City Shopping Centre is located close by to the Airport Link corridor at 400 Stafford Road and has approximately 75 speciality retail stores including majors Woolworths, Action, Big W and Australian Multiples Cinemas. The centre is privately owned by Yu Feng and managed by RetailFirst. In 1997 the centre underwent a $14 million redevelopment, which included the opening of a cinema complex and expansion of the food court. The centre has taxi and bus service connections to both local areas and Brisbane city.

Westfield Chermside Shopping Centre

The Westfield Chermside Shopping Centre is a key north side retail and commercial centre located on the corner of Gympie Road and Hamilton Road Chermside. It provides easy access to both consumers and suppliers and is a key centre for public transport. It accommodates over 250 specialty stores

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including major stores Myer, Target, Kmart, Coles, Bi Lo and Birch Carroll & Coyle Cinemas, and has approximately 3,800 car spaces.

The Westfield Chermside Shopping Centre is a planned mixed use area with medium density housing under the current City Plan. This centre is the largest retail complex on the north side of Brisbane and is a major generator of traffic. The centre is undergoing a $230 million expansion which will see it increase from approximately 79,000 m2 to over 116,000m2. Car parking will increase to 6,200 car spaces. Chermside Shopping Centre is a key location that could benefit significantly by the proposed Airport Link tunnel.

Junction Road (Eagle Junction) to East-West Arterial (Toombul)

The street level survey identified 206 businesses identified from Junction Road (Eagle Junction) to the East-West Arterial (Toombul) with “specialised food retailing” being the most common business type representing 8.7% of businesses in this section (35 out of a possible 206). Centro Toombul Shopping Centre is the primary retail complex that will contributes to the number of businesses in the eastern section of the proposed Airport Link’s corridor catchment and would be a key beneficiary if the proposed tunnel was to proceed.

The Centro Toombul Shopping Centre is a regional shopping complex located on Sandgate Road, one of the key arterials leading to Brisbane City. There are over 150 retailers located in the shopping centre including major operators David Jones, Coles, Kmart, Bi Lo and Birch Carroll and Coyle Cinemas. The occupancy rate at the complex is very high at 99.6% with a weighted average lease expiry of 6 years. There are approximately 2,500 car parks which in certain sections are prone to flooding. The complex is undergoing refurbishments will provide extra leasing space of approximately 3,000m2. Additional undercover car parking and deck car parking will be included as part of the redevelopment.

Aside from the Centro Toombul Shopping Centre, there is medium level of economic activity at the Junction Road/Sandgate Road intersections with 22 businesses being located in this area. This area could represent a future potential development due to the condition of several buildings especially in relation to the western side of Sandgate Road past the Junction Road intersection. The businesses are predominantly “Specialised Food Retailing” in this area.

2.1.7 Brisbane Long Term Planning Economic Indicators (NIEIR)

In October 2005, the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) prepared a report for Brisbane City Council (BCC) titled the “Brisbane Long Term Planning Economic Indicators”. The NIEIR report presented a range of economic indicators and forecasts that are of particular relevance to the Airport Link economic analysis. This section of the report includes a summary of these findings.

Total Manufacturing in the Brisbane City LGA produced $25 billion of output in the region in 2004 with Chemicals and Petroleum having the highest contribution of $7 billion. Total Manufacturing represents over 21% of output for the region and this sector is a major user of the Brisbane and regional road network for origin and destination freight movements.

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Business Services had an output of $12 billion which represents approximately 10% of output for the Brisbane Urban Footprint and is the highest contributor to output. Property Services had an output of $11 billion dollars for the region which is not surprising considering the rapid growth in the residential, commercial and industrial property development and market activity over the past couple of years.

It is important to understand that the employment estimates for the NIEIR study are based on location of work, not where people live. In 2004, there was approximately 800,000 people employed in the Brisbane Urban Footprint with over 72% of these people being employed in the Brisbane LGA. Brisbane Inner City is the largest single employment generator in the region with an estimated 223,892 people being employed in and around the city. The Inner City also includes the suburbs of Herston, Highgate Hill, Kangaroo Point, Kelvin Grove, Milton, New Farm, Newstead, Paddington, Red Hill, South Brisbane, Spring Hill, West End and Woolloongabba.

Business Services and Manufacturing have the highest employment levels in the Brisbane LGA with an estimated 74,328 and 65,433 persons being employed in these industries respectively. There are nearly 90,000 employed in the Business Services industry in the Brisbane Urban Footprint which represents 11% of all workers. This is followed by Education at 8% and Health Services at 7% of all workers.

The major employment areas in Outer Brisbane City include the Outer North and Outer South which both have 8.6% of the Brisbane LGA employment population, a combined employment total of over 100,000 people. Growth in the Outer industrial regions may be facilitated by the proposed Airport Link as it will provide a pivotal cross city link for both private and freight carrying vehicles. The main areas of employment in the Other LGAs include Logan City and Ipswich City with 51,988 and 45,849 people employed in these areas respectively. Both of these LGAs are forecast to increase their employment contribution to the greater Brisbane area.

Business Services has the highest industry representation in the Inner City with over 43,570 people being employed in this industry. Not surprisingly, Manufacturing ranked the highest in Outer Brisbane with an estimated 43,813 people being employed in this industry.

The average car ownership in the Brisbane LGA is 1.58 cars per household. A key trend occurs with households closer to the Brisbane CBD having lower average car ownership than Outer suburbs. This is particularly evident in the Inner City which has an average household car ownership of 1.16. There is a higher reliance on private vehicles in the outer suburbs as a result of longer travel distances to work, reduced flexibility, generally poor access to public transport and a higher proportion of families as opposed to singles living in the outer suburbs.

Outer West had the highest level of car ownership with 2.1 vehicles on average per household while the Outer North which will impact significantly on the usage of the Airport Link has an average of 1.68 vehicles per household.

Cross city passenger vehicles for both private and business travel and heavy vehicle freight movements will continue to increase with the location of future industrial estates to the Outer North, Outer South and Outer West corridors and the ATC. The Brisbane CBD and other Inner City will

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continue to be the primary location for Business and Property Services and corresponding employment location for the Brisbane City population and surrounding LGAs.

2.2 Future Economic Environment

2.2.1 Brisbane and South East Queensland Economic Trends

The Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government have adopted key policy and planning directions to guide future land use and the provision of economic and social infrastructure in Brisbane city and South East Queensland. The South East Queensland Regional Plan and its complementary SEQ Infrastructure Plan and Program (SEQIPP) 2006 – 2026 highlights that the population of the region will increase from the current 2.6 million people to about 3.7 million by 2026. The region’s population is forecast to be 3 million by 2016. The Brisbane metropolitan area, which is the nucleus of the South East Queensland (SEQ) region, is projected to grow from 1.55 million to more than 2 million people by 2016. The region is predicted to have one of the fastest growth rates of any major urban regions in Australia.

Brisbane City Council’s Living in Brisbane 2010 presents a vision of Brisbane as a place to live and work and Transport Plan for Brisbane 2002 – 2016 (under review) considers transport issues, challenges and solutions to 2016. While these plans have a shorter time horizon than the SEQ Regional Plan, they nevertheless present a compelling view of the future that Brisbane and its transport system are coming under pressure as more people choose to live and work in the Brisbane metropolitan area.

SEQIPP identifies that the increase in the region’s population will generate an additional 425,000 jobs by 2026. The Transport Plan for Brisbane highlights that existing and future employment growth is becoming decentralised in the Brisbane metropolitan area. The significance of Brisbane in the region is exhibited by the fact that 90% of Brisbane’s residents work within Brisbane City Council boundaries and approximately 50% of residents from surrounding local government areas (Pine Rivers, Redcliffe and Caboolture to the north, Logan and Redlands to the south east and Ipswich to the west) travel to work in Brisbane. This trend has significant implications for cross city travel particularly in the morning and afternoon peaks when congestion adversely affects the network. Employment growth in the Brisbane CBD and Brisbane City’s outer areas is forecast to increase by 19% and 45% respectively between 2006 and 2016. The Australian TradeCoast’s employment growth is forecast to increase by 95% over the same period.

Efficient freight movement is also a key element in the economic wellbeing of a city. The Transport Plan for Brisbane 2002-2016 states that about 90% of freight movement in SEQ originates or has its destination in Brisbane. Urban freight movements are estimated to be growing by 4% per annum. The SEQIPP highlights that the proposed increase in population and subsequent expansion of economic activity and employment in the region will increase the need for the timely provision of new transport infrastructure to support this forecast growth. Most importantly, the SEQIPP recognises this critical nexus between infrastructure and regional development as a key influence on the pattern and rate of economic development in the region and in Brisbane as is economic heart.

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The Airport Link Detailed Feasibility study is a significant government planning initiative to support the SEQIPP key strategic directions and possible investment in the SEQ region.

2.2.2 Economic Growth

Brisbane City Council’s report “Brisbane Long Term Planning Economic Indicators” has identified out of region exports as the key driver for determining the growth and geographical location of future economic activity in the region. Out of region exports in the region were $41 billion in 2004 and are estimated to grow by an average annual rate of 4% to $98 billion by 2026 for the (Trend Case).

In 2004, it is estimated that 29% of out of region exports were generated in the Inner City. This is forecast to decrease to 27% in 2026 as a result of an increase in residential and commercial growth and rising land values in the Inner City which will force some of these activities to Outer areas. The main beneficiaries in the Outer regions are Outer North East, Outer East and the Outer South East in the Brisbane City, Caboolture Shire and Ipswich City in the other LGAs. This movement of major industrial estates to outer metropolitan areas has already commenced.

Households that are highly skilled have higher disposable incomes and will contribute to a higher rate of economic growth. Professional and skilled households are expected to increase by 126% to 2031 which represents an annual growth rate of 2.7%. Low skilled households will increase by an estimated 58% over the same period.

The Inner City attracts a high proportion of young couple households less likely to have children. These households have high disposable incomes and are likely less price sensitive to a user-pay toll road. The further from the city the higher the rate of retired households as these types of households relocate to lower cost housing areas.

Real average household incomes in the Inner City are predicted to maintain their superiority over those in the Outer region. This is related to the higher levels of professionally skilled households in the Inner regions.

High levels of productivity normally coincide with areas with high levels of manufacturing and or transport services. The region is forecast to experience high growth rates and levels of productivity for all scenarios with the Outer regions are forecast to experience slightly higher levels due to the location of the Manufacturing industry in general.

Under a range of development scenarios, there will be approximately 1.2 million people employed in the Brisbane Urban Footprint by 2031, which represents a total increase of 67% over the 2004 population estimates. Brisbane City will continue to be the single largest employment generator in the region with between 330,000 to 375,000 people being employed in this area depending on the scenario.

The major employing sectors of Business Services, Manufacturing, Health Services and Household Goods Retailing will continue to be the strongest employers in 2026. Business Services continues to be the largest employer in the region with an estimated range of between 134,550 and 138,442 people by 2026. Manufacturing continues to be a major player employing over an estimated 107,000 in the Brisbane Urban Footprint, however actual growth is slow over the forecast period. General

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Construction shows the biggest sub division increase and will be the second largest employer in most scenarios employing approximately 90,000 people.

The combined Inner City areas are expected to grow at slightly higher rates than the Outer regions. However, this does not reflect the disproportionate growth across the Inner City. The Inner City and Inner West are estimated to grow by 45% and 60% respectively. This is significantly higher than the remaining Inner regions which are estimated to grow by a combined estimated 15%. The demand in the Inner City will place additional pressure on our transport networks to and from the city.

The key economic growth centres in the Brisbane City LGA (aside from the CBD and Inner City) will be in the Outer areas. Subject to the availability of land, this will result in the continued growth and/or rationalisation of industrial areas including the Australia TradeCoast, Pinkenba, Hendra, Eagle Farm, Zillmere, Geebung, Banyo, Northgate and Acacia Ridge/Archerfield/Salisbury corridor. Adjacent LGAs including Ipswich City, Logan City, Caboolture Shire and Pine Rivers Shire will have the necessary land requirements and workforces to accommodate major industrial estates and therefore will be on the front foot in to attract manufacturing companies to their shires.

2.2.3 Brisbane Airport

The Brisbane Airport’s current significant economic impact on South East Queensland is expected to continue with the planned future development of the Brisbane Airport City concept. Forecast growth in both domestic and international passenger numbers, air freight and increased aviation and other commercial development will fuel future economic activity at the airport precinct.

In particular, the Brisbane Airport's 2003 Master plan identifies unprecedented aviation and commercial and industrial development opportunities over the next 20 years. The Brisbane Airport Corporation Limited (BACL) has a vision in which the Brisbane Airport will:

• Capture land development opportunities that will maintain Brisbane Airport’s position as one of Australia’s premier domestic and international airports and a major centre for aviation maintenance and training; and

• Be a principal generator of economic growth and employment in the South East Queensland region through sustained commercial and industrial development.

From an airport’s operations perspective, the increase in domestic and international aircraft capacity will be primarily achieved by the construction of the parallel runway 01/19 to the immediate north west of the existing main runway within the next ten years to meet air services demand and forecast aviation growth.

The Brisbane Airport will continue to operate as a 24 hour curfew free global trade and commercial centre. The development of seven master planned aviation, commercial and industrial precincts over an area of 970 hectares will serve as the cornerstone of the Airport City concept. These precincts are being developed in accordance with the Brisbane Airport Master Plan 2003. Existing and prospective businesses and industries that are being targeted to establish in each precinct include:

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• Number 1 Airport Drive (80 hectares) – This precinct is identified as a key business, tourism, retail and entertainment centre and is zoned as business and leisure. It is located on the corner of Airport Drive and the Gateway Motorway and is expected to take 15 years to be fully developed. The first major off airport terminal retail development in the precinct is the Direct Factory Outlet (DFO) complex that has already meet generated considerable shopper interest and traffic impacts.

• Export Park (280 hectares) – This precinct covers three areas and is zoned as light industry and general industry precinct. Development is ongoing with DHL, Hellman Worldwide Logistics, Cellnet, Australia Post, Crazy Clarks, Qantas Air Freight and others already established as major tenants. The precinct will include airport handling, commercial office, warehouse and distribution activities and businesses.

• Aerotech Park (200 hectares) – This is the specialised aircraft and aerospace production and maintenance hub of the Brisbane Airport and is situated on the eastern side of the airport. It houses the maintenance hangars for Qantas, VirginBlue and National Jet Systems. The European Aeronautic Defence and Space (EADS) Company also operate a production and maintenance facility in the precinct.

• Airport Industrial Park (100 hectares) – The industrial precinct is zoned general industrial and will include manufacturing, warehousing and distribution companies.

• Banksia Place (100 hectares) – Commercial aviation, corporate offices, airline catering are some of the businesses will be located in this centre zoned for business and light industry. BAC has some of its corporate activities in office space in this precinct.

• Brisbane International and Brisbane Domestic Terminal (210 hectares) – This precinct is the heart of Brisbane Airport and is zoned for business and light industry and includes the domestic and international airport terminals, corporate office, duty free, retail, car rental, car parking and public transport (rail) facilities.

• Northern Development Area: Expansion of precinct in line with general aviation activity, airport support activities and proposed parallel airway development.

Most recent additions to the Brisbane Airport’s Export Park precinct have been Australia Post (7,100 sqm), Repco (15,000 sqm), Fed Ex (2,500 sqm) and Jetstream (4,600 sqm). Qantas heavy aircraft maintenance facility commenced operating in 2005 and Virgin Blue 737 maintenance facility is being constructed.

BACL has indicated in its 2003 Master Plan that proposed developments will be staged to match future industry trends and demands and that the timing of aviation infrastructure investments may be subject to global influences outside the control of BACL. Proposed commercial and industrial developments at the airport are likely to proceed to meet regional demand planned over the next decade and that the Airport Link will be required to support this planned development and economic activity.

Port of Brisbane

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In addition to Brisbane Airport, the Port of Brisbane is a primary driver for economic growth in South East Queensland. The port has experienced a decade of record trade growth and projections to 2025 forecast that this trend will continue.

To accommodate this projected future growth the Port of Brisbane Corporation has embarked on a 25 year plan to reclaim around 270 hectares of land at Fisherman Islands to provide an additional 1,800 metres of wharves and related infrastructure. Construction of an additional container wharf (wharf 10) has already commenced and is scheduled for completion in 2008.

The Port of Brisbane Corporation has identified that additional wharves and port land are required to support and facilitate projected trade growth and economic activity within the region. The Corporation’s requirements are predicted on the following projections:

• Trade projections to the year 2025 show anticipated growth in all cargo types, with highest average annual growth in containers (6.9% p.a) and break bulk (2.9% p.a)

• Total trade volumes are projected to reach over 60 million tonnes by 2025

• Actual total container volumes for 1998 / 99 of 357,703 twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) are 22% above the projections in the 1992 Strategic Plan and container volumes are projected to reach up to 1.9 million units by 2025.

• Demand for port land is projected to exceed existing supply at Fisherman Islands by the year 2007.

• Demand for quay line is projected to exceed available deep-water frontage on Fisherman Islands by the year 2009.

• By 2025, it is projected that an additional 222ha of land will be required for industrial and commercial development purposes at Fisherman Islands.

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3. Strategic Assessment Property Economic Impacts

3.1 Introduction The Queensland State Government and Brisbane City Council are in advanced planning stages of the Airport Link Project. As part of the Airport Link Detailed Feasibility Study including the EIS, Knight Frank has undertaken a comparative analysis of the associated property economic impacts that the Project may have before and after Project construction in 2012.

The Airport Link study corridor consists broadly from Bowen Bridge Road (Bowen Hills / Herston) to Kedron Brook and the East West Arterial at Toombul. The study is also cognisant that both the Airport Link and the proposed Interim Northern Busway share corridor between Bowen Hills / Herston and Kedron.

3.2 Classification of the benefits and impacts of the Preferred Location The proposed location for the Airport Link tunnel has been determined provides a number of potential economic outcomes for land owners, business operators and both the local and broader community in general in the study corridor. All benefits and impacts have been broken down into two classifications, as follows:

Tangible effects – are those effects that flow into individual land owners and/or the community to which a monetary value can be recognised with reference to the local market place; and

Intangible effects – are those for which there is no market representative and which can only be valued from a subjective rather than an objective perspective.

The study focuses and reports on the tangible effects ascribed from the two separate, though closely located, Projects being in operation together. Any intangible effects that may arise due to the implementation of the Projects have not been included or identified in the analysis.

In assessing the level of positive and negative impacts that may be experienced, we have applied the following grading system as shown in Table 3.1 and Table 3.2 respectively.

For benefits:

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Table 3.1 Benefits Impacts Grading System

+ 1 + 1.5 + 2 + 2.5 + 3 + 3.5 + 4

No Benefit Minimal Benefit

Slight Benefit

Moderate Benefit

High Benefit

For negative impacts:

Table 3.2 Negative Impacts Grading System

- 1 - 1.5 - 2 - 2.5 - 3 - 3.5 - 4

No Impact Minimal Impact

Slightly Impacted

Moderately Impacted

Highly Impacted

3.3 Study Environment

3.3.1 Current Tenure & Land Uses The land contained within the study corridor consists of various permissible uses under current Brisbane City Council statutory planning instruments.

The study corridor comprises a mixture of commercial, retail and residential land uses. In Bowen Hills/Herston to Ferny Grove Rail Overpass there is a strong presence of fringe commercial office buildings, automotive service providers and ancillary businesses, short stay accommodation, restaurants and a number of large bulky goods retail outlets surrounded by smaller, fragmented retail premises. These commercial and retail businesses are all located along Lutwyche Road. This area also includes a significant number of residential properties which are located one street block back from Lutwyche Road.

The Ferny Grove Rail Overpass to Kedron area comprises a significant amount of strip retail shops housing a number of service industries, Lutwyche Shopping Centre, large retail bulky good outlets, hotels, fitness centres and a well established node of detached residential dwellings.

The Kedron to Toombul eastern area of the study corridor is made up of well established, detached one and two level residential dwellings. It is most likely that the predominant use and occupation of the residential properties in this section are owner occupied. This area also contains a large amount of retail premises. However, a predominant proportion of these retail businesses are located within Toombul Shopping Centre, which is one of three major shopping centres located in Brisbane’s northern suburbs.

Scattered amongst the various land uses in all three areas of the study corridor are a number of community uses such as parks and schools located either adjacent to or directly above the proposed underground transport corridor.

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3.3.2 Methodology In assessing the impacts that may occur in the Airport Link study corridor, primary (most affected) and secondary (least affected) zones of impact have been established.

Primary Zone

The primary zone comprises mainly:

Major redevelopments e.g. Homemaker Centre,

By and large much of the outbound side of Lutwyche Road as it is the most highly developed,

Restaurants and Hotel/Motel Accommodation,

Residential and commercial properties affected by easement on title,

Small automotive retail clusters with associated uses e.g. after market products and accessories, and

Older retail strips which now comprise of service industries.

It is clear that the primary zone in any case will be most affected as businesses that are located along Lutwyche Road are heavily reliant upon the passing traffic for trade. Many of these businesses are destination businesses, which means, that people will travel extra distances for the non-mainstream services that they provide. Development and the types of businesses operating in the primary zone are predominantly non-complimentary and are fragmented due to:

The inability for investors, developers and owner occupiers to secure reasonable sized parcels of land which enable redevelopment, and

The fact that many of the commercial and retail properties have reached a point of obsolescence in their functional life, makes these properties desirable to businesses that require a reasonable level of exposure and cannot afford to pay premium retail and commercial rents for that exposure in other major locations of trade.

Secondary Zone

The secondary zone is where there becomes a clear transition to residential land uses. In some instances there may be some small commercial and retail businesses in the secondary zone. However the impacts from the Airport Link are considered to be minimal on these businesses. A visual inspection of the study corridor depicts that the secondary zone begins one street block east or west from Lutwyche Road.

3.3.3 Property Market Trends Historically, certain land uses have been determined by the market place. The way in which development has occurred along Lutwyche Road and the operating nature of the businesses has been a result of natural market forces. The resultant development patterns that occur as a result to natural

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market forces can sometimes be fragmented and non-complimentary in the land uses. This type of fragmented development pattern is evident along Lutwyche Road and is explained in further detail below and throughout this report on a section by section basis.

Herston Road to Ferny Grove Rail overpass on Lutwyche Road.

Residential properties within this section are located one street block back from Lutwyche Road. The residential properties consist of improved sites and have a land size in the range of 400 to 820 square metres. Current average house prices are $464,000 which represents an increase of 58% (11% per annum) on average property prices since late 2001, when prices were around the $270,000 mark.

Figure 3.1 shows a graphical representation of the aggregated sales for residential properties in the three suburbs, Bowen Hills, Herston and Windsor. Detailed in the graph below is the median sale price for each quarter throughout the last five years with the corresponding number of sales which occurred for that quarter.

Figure 3.1 Bowen Hills, Herston and Windsor Aggregated Residential Sales Cycle

Source: RP Data

For completeness of the study, a graphical representation of the aggregated sales cycle of multi-unit and building unit sales for the Bowen Hills, Herston and Spring Hill areas has been provided. This information shows the spread of higher residential developments throughout the inner northern part of the Brisbane CBD fringe area. However, the results depicted in Figure 3.2 below are slightly skewed due to the inclusion of Spring Hill. However, as potential development sites become less available in the Spring Hill area, it is expected that developers will move closer towards the Royal Brisbane Women’s Hospital and further north along the corridor in search of available development sites.

$-

$100,000.00

$200,000.00

$300,000.00

$400,000.00

$500,000.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Date (Quarterly)

Median Sale Price

01020304050607080

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price

Number of Sales

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Figure 3.2 Aggregation of Building and Multi Unit Sales in Bowen Hills, Herston and Spring Hill

Source: RP Data

Commercial businesses within the Bowen Hills/Herston to Ferny Grove Rail Overpass area have been identified as car dealerships, service stations, hotels/motels and professional offices. Brisbane’s fringe market has performed strongly throughout late 2005 and early 2006. This strong performance is due to solid market fundamentals including, rental growth due to tight leasing conditions in the CBD, white collar growth and low vacancy rates.

Tight leasing conditions with all time low vacancy rates of 4.2% within the fringe market has resulted in rental growth in the vicinity of 20% for high quality fringe properties due to landlord’s new bargaining power in lease negotiations. As a result, this increase in demand has resulted in a decrease in the level of incentives offered to the market. Current leasing rates for commercial tenancies in this area are in the order of $240/sqm to $300/sqm gross for refurbished newer office space.

Figure 3.3 below depicts the movement of gross rents in the area over the last five years. Much of the increase in rental growth was due to the upgrades undertaken on the Royal Brisbane Women’s Hospital in 2002, which displaced a number of office space users within the hospital premises to commercial premises in the surrounding area.

$-$50,000.00

$100,000.00$150,000.00$200,000.00$250,000.00$300,000.00$350,000.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Period (Quarterly)

Median Sale Price

0

50

100

150

200

250

Number of Sales

Median Sale PriceNumber of Sales

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Figure 3.3 Gross Commercial Rents for Section One

Source: RP Data

Increased investor competition for office property in a tightly held market, increasing construction costs which are limiting new construction and the small amount of new supply within the market is easily being outweighed by high levels of net absorption and demand have all contributed to this capital growth yield compression that has been experienced over the last five years.

Retail properties within the area include bulky good retail outlets such as those in the Windsor Homemaker Centre, various restaurants and strip retail outlets. Newer retail properties in the Section have seen significant increases in market values over the past five years, however due to the tightly held nature of properties in the section there have been very few significant sales occur over the past five years. This tightly held nature is also reflected in the commercial market, which has therefore made it difficult to find up to date sales data. The point made earlier about the fragmented nature of the properties located on Lutwyche Road, therefore limits the number of potential purchasers as the properties hold little redevelopment potential due to the unreasonable size of the allotments. Current asking rents for retail premises in the area are in the order of $200/sqm to $250/sqm.

Industrial properties are limited in this area and are located on sites close to the entrance of the Inner City Bypass. This is due to the fact that many sites previously occupied for industrial purposes have been converted into higher and better uses, as a result of the changing of major transport routes and the increased difficulty of access by larger vehicles.

Ferny Grove Rail overpass to Kedron.

The general land uses in this area are mixed use developments, residential, commercial and retail outlets. The residential properties range in the size of 400 to 800 square metres and are producing average house prices in late 2005 of $390,000. This is a 70% (or 14% per annum) increase over a 5 year period where houses prices were $276,000 in early 2002. This increase is due to many factors

$-$50.00

$100.00$150.00$200.00$250.00$300.00$350.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year

Rate ($/sqm)

Gross Rents

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such as the Lutwyche’s proximity to the city, location to other well established suburbs such as Albion and Clayfield, prolonged low interest rate environment and people’s overall increased purchasing power due to increased wages and the first home owners grant.

Figure 3.4 shows the residential sales cycle graph for the suburb of Lutwyche over the last five years. Depicted in the graph is the median sale price for each quarter with the corresponding number of sales which occurred for each quarter.

Figure 3.4 Lutwyche Residential Sales Analysis

Source: RP Data

Commercial property within this area comprises of small one and two level professional offices used by legal, computer, accounting and financial firms. This area has seen strong growth in the office fringe market due to solid market fundamentals such as significant rental growth, tight leasing conditions, record low vacancy rates, and office demand outweighing supply. Recent sales in the study corridor are achieving a sales range of $1000 to $1400 per square metre.

Retail properties along Lutwyche Road in this area include Lutwyche Shopping Centre, ribbon development retail centres, restaurants and individual and conglomerated bulky goods retail outlets. Retail properties in this section control a significant proportion of the land along Lutwyche Road. These retail properties have all seen significant increases in market values over the past 5 years, especially sites which are large in size or where a developer is able to amalgamate a group of smaller allotments together and purchase them all in one line.

However, most the retail is contained in the form of strip centres and are fragmented in ownership and are non – complimentary in the services provided. Recent sales evidence depicts that the current

$-$100,000.00 $200,000.00 $300,000.00 $400,000.00 $500,000.00 $600,000.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Date (Quarterly)

Median Sale Price

0

5

10

15

20

25

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price Number of Sales

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prices being paid for strip retail shops in the corridor ranges from $900 to $1200 per square metre. Current rents for the area are in the range of $220/sqm to $280/sqm gross.

Like the Bowen Hills/Herston to Ferny Grove Rail Overpass area, there have been very few significant sales over the past two to three years due to the fragmented nature in property ownership and development in the study corridor. Because of these effects, there appears to be little interest in properties in the area by investors and developers as it is difficult to secure reasonable sized portions of land which offer the potential for redevelopment.

There are very few vacant or improved sites left in these areas of the corridor which provide the potential for redevelopment. This lack of redevelopment potential is mainly due to the fragmented nature of the businesses located within these sectors. The fragmented nature of this area is a direct result of development patterns that have occurred over time. The lower quartile of the area around Lutwyche/Kedron to the east is included in the Clayfield/Wooloowin District Local Plan. This plan is discussed in further detail below.

Corner Kedron Park Road/ Lutwyche Road to East West Arterial adjacent to Toombul Shopping Centre.

This component of the study corridor comprises predominantly improved residential sites and a significant amount of centrally located retail at Toombul Shopping Centre.

Residential properties within this area are presumed to be mainly owner occupied sites with blocks ranging between 400 and 850 square metres. The area has seen an average percentage increase of 67% (or 13% per annum) over the last 5 years, with the average house price in late 2001 of $320,000 increasing to $476,000 in late 2005. Much of this positive growth can be attributed to the proximity of other older well established suburbs on Brisbane’s northside such as Clayfield, Nundah and Albion.

Depicted below is a graphical representation of the sales cycle which has occurred over the last five years in this eastern area of the corridor. Similar to the graphs included above, the information contained within this data set includes the median sale price for each quarter throughout the last five years along with the corresponding number of sales which occurred for that quarter.

The Airport Link Project may cause some uncertainty the market place in this area due to community consternation in some quarters and a decrease in buyer sentiment in the area in the short-term. However, this area is a well established suburb which has experienced a continuous level of nominal growth over the last five years as depicted in Figure 3.5 below and it is expected that there will be no detrimental effects on the sales rate within the section. The sale in the second quarter of 2006 should be disregarded as it is representative of one sale only. As more and more sales a recorded as having occurred in quarter 2 of 2006, the median sale price should firm up graphically.

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Figure 3.5 Wooloowin Residential Sales Analysis

Source: RP Data

As noted earlier, a large proportion of the retail premises in this area are centrally located within Toombul Shopping Centre. Due to the lack of available leasing information, it is difficult to provide current leasing rates being achieved in the centre. For the purposes of this assessment, rents have been estimated to be in the range of $800/sqm to $950/sqm gross. Since the subject property’s purchase in mid 2003, it has undergone a significant amount of external refurbishment work. BCC has approved an application to undertake a further stage of refurbishment to increase car parking capacity and provide more retail space.

Strip retail comprising of local area uses such as bottle shops, bakeries, small grocery stores and professional services also exist along Junction Road and service the needs of the surrounding residential catchment area.

The predominant land use within the area is for residential and retail purposes. There appears to be no inherent development issues affecting the properties in this area as a large proportion of all available sites have been developed. There are however two Local plans which encompass this part of the study corridor. The first is the Clayfield/Wooloowin District Local Plan which contains specific additional local planning requirements. This plan looks at preserving the low and low-medium density housing in the area. This plan also includes the lower portion of land uses such as Lutwyche Shopping Centre and surrounding residential sites.

The second local plan is the Toombul-Nundah Major Centre Local Plan. This plan aims at preserving Toombul Shopping Centre as the main focus for retailing activity in the area and regulates the development of Nundah Village and other commercial sites just north of the Sandgate Road Nundah Village Bypass tunnel entrance.

$-

$200,000.00

$400,000.00

$600,000.00

$800,000.00

$1,000,000.00

2001 2002

2003 2004 2005

Date (Quarterly)

Median Sale Price

0

10

20

30

40

50

Number of Sales

Median Sale PriceNumber of Sales

PAGE 34

3.4 Market Acceptance Research by Knight Frank suggests that the flow-on effects from other similar underground and on or above ground infrastructure Projects that have been undertaken in Australia over the past few years does provide an overall generally positive outcome in the longer term.

Past Projects

3.4.1 Dandenong Industrial Region – Melbourne Due to improvements in road infrastructure and increasing consumption of land, average land values across Melbourne have risen significantly over the past year. The conversion of industrial land to residential land, particularly within Melbourne’s inner region, has resulted in significant increases in land values and strong capital growth in recent years.

The Mitcham – Frankston tollway is one such road infrastructure Project that is expected to provide a medium to long term positives impact the Dandenong industrial region. With the Mitcham-Frankston tollway not due for completion until 2008, its impact upon the Dandenong region as one of Melbourne’s key industrial hubs is already being realised. Past completed Projects such as the CityLink Tollway in the late 1990’s are the catalysts for the successful long-term property value growth created by major infrastructure Projects.

Industrial land values in the Dandenong region increased significantly over the six month period leading up January 2005. Smaller sized lots (0.25ha) grew by 12.5% to $135/sqm, whilst larger lots (1.6ha) increased by 11% to achieve $100/sqm. It is forecast that land values will continue to rise due to the shortage of serviced industrial land in the region, high demand for stock, and the completion of the Mitcham – Frankston tollway.

The impact from this Project in the short term provides a negative impact, however the benefits derived in the medium to longer term from having the Mitcham – Frankston Tollway in place will provide an uplift in capital values and demand for industrial property users to be located in the area.

3.4.2 Craigieburn Bypass Industrial Precinct (CBIP) – Melbourne The Craigieburn Bypass is a 17km roadway linking the Hume Freeway near Mt Ridley Road at Craigieburn, to the Metropolitan Ring Road at Thomastown. The Craigieburn Bypass is the principle gateway to Melbourne from the north of Victoria.

The road has been designed to reduce travel times, provide fuel savings to motorists and the freight industry, reduce traffic congestion, enhance road safety on the Hume Highway, and remove traffic from local roads. Construction of the bypass started in May 2002. The first four kilometres of the bypass from the Metropolitan Ring Road, at Thomastown to Cooper Street, Epping were opened to traffic in December 2004. More than 24,000 vehicles have been using this section of the bypass daily since then.

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It is anticipated that the benefits derived from the construction of the Craigieburn Bypass will deliver close to $1 billion worth of safety and economic benefits to Victoria, including:

Reduced traffic congestion – motorists will avoid 13 sets of traffic lights along the Hume Highway between the Metropolitan Ring Road, Campbellfield and Mt. Ridley Road, Craigieburn;

Reduced travel times between Craigieburn and the Metropolitan Ring Road – it will now take approximately 10 minutes compared with 40 minutes;

Improved road safety for motorists accessing businesses and homes along, and near the Hume Highway;

Encouraging traffic to use the main road network rather than local roads;

Improved access for the freight industry transporting goods to markets; and

Reduced fuel and vehicle operating costs for private motorists and for freight industries.

During the construction of the bypass, much attention was drawn to the region from both investors, developers and tenants, which has resulted in considerable growth in the industrial localities of Craigieburn, Somerton, Epping, Broadmeadows and Thomastown. This pent-up demand for the area resulted in the increase of land values and prime rents, which inturn has further increased capital values for completed Projects.

Industrial land values in the CBIP as at September 2005, for smaller sized lots (0.25ha) has grown by 17.5% to average $155/sqm, with larger lots (1.6ha) jumping by 26.5% to average $103/sqm from the previous year. Before the Project’s completion, it was anticipated that demand for industrial stock within the CBIP would further intensify in the short to medium term, encouraging further land value growth within the precinct.

Significant growth is also expected to occur due to the completion of other major infrastructure Projects such as P&O’s inland rail port at Somerton. The intermodal facility is located within the Austrak Business Park which is located on the Hume Highway and it is expected to also fuel continual demand for the area throughout the medium term.

The CBIP is a project which has provided an overall neutral effect by its implementation in the short-term, however it has unlocked a large amount of the surrounding en-globo land which has had a positive effect on land values and will continue to do so into the longer term.

It can be concluded from these two examples, that as a result of infrastructure upgrades, the impact that efficient infrastructure has on industrial property is generally an overall above the line positive impact. Across Melbourne in general, these upgrades have resulted in major improvements in transportation efficiency, providing easier access to sea ports, airports, the CBD, and access to a broader employee catchment source.

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3.4.3 Subiaco – Perth In 1990 the proposed Subiaco 2000 concept plan was released. This plan addressed key issues that were evident in Subiaco’s urban form and highlighted many opportunities for redevelopment in the area. Following the release of this proposal, the Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy at Murdoch University prepared a report outlining the benefits for the development of Subiaco Urban Village centred on the Subiaco rail station and surrounding unused industrial land.

In order to ensure the success of an urban village, the undergrounding of the Fremantle Rail Line in Subiaco was deemed necessary by urban planners. With significant support from local businesses, government agencies, and the City of Subiaco, an application was made to the government for funding. In 1994 the Subiaco Redevelopment Authority was established to undertake works on the 80 hectare site. The $70 million project released under-utilised land and created an opportunity for the integrated urban land development of Subi Centro.

Since the project’s inception, there has been a lack of empirical evidence to qualify the effect that the undergrounding of the rail line and having an easement in volumetric title, has had on land values in Subiaco. Knight Frank has undertaken its own research on this development to provide some qualitative evidence.

Knight Frank’s Western Australian commercial sales department has been heavily involved in the marketing of commercial properties in the new redevelopment of Subiaco, which surrounds the train station. Since 1998, sales data has shown that achievable sale rates have nearly tripled, from $575/sqm in 1998 to $1607/sqm in 2005. This increase in sale rates reflects a yearly increase of approximately 15.6%. In the September 2005 Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) market update, it made comment on the fact that Subiaco has had an average five year increase of 12% on established houses and 3.1% on land sales since the completion of Subi Centro.

This data indicates that there has been an increase due to the undergrounding of the railway, but also the redevelopment of the suburb of Subiaco has had a positive long-term flow-on effect, on the growth of sale rates for the area.

3.5 Property Impacts of the Project A key objective of the Airport Link Project is to minimise impacts of the project on surrounding areas to protect people’s livelihoods, lifestyle and local amenity. An advantage of tunnels over surface roads, which often require extensive acquisition of property along the entire corridor, is that tunnels generally only require acquisitions near where the tunnels connect to the surface. The more common requirement for tunnels is the subsurface land through the resumption of volumetric title, which refers to a person’s rights to the space directly above or below their property. If Airport Link proceeds it would occupy a corridor up to 50 metres wide and up to 60 metres below ground level and would pass beneath some private properties. The Queensland Government and Brisbane City Council would need to acquire sub-surface volumetric titles for private properties above the tunnel. However, since there is virtually no conceivable way the earth, 30 to 60 metres beneath the ground level, could affect the surface property value in a highly developed urban environment, acquisition of this subterranean volumetric title is expected to have little if any effect on property values.

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3.6 Impact Assessment

3.6.1 Comparative Analysis (Airport Link with Interim Northern Busway) A comparative analysis has been undertaken and is not intended to draw absolute conclusions about dollar increases or decreases in value, probable realisations or compensation amounts.

Street level survey data of the land uses has been used for the corridor to analyse the effect of the probable after project completion impacts associated with the implementation of the Interim Northern Busway and Airport Link.

Table 3.3 shows the results from the Comparative Analysis with the Interim Northern Busway Project.

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Table 3.3 Airport Link Comparative Assessment with Interim Northern Busway

Precinct/Study

corridor

Zone Negative Effect Impact

Rating

Benefit Impact Rating

Total Unweighted Impact

Total Weighte

d Impact

Impact Effect Value Range

1. Herston Road to Ferny Grove overpass

Primary ‘- Decrease in Traffic: Loss of Exposure or Trade

- 3 -Decrease in Traffic: reduced noise

+2 -1 -1.90 -10% to -18

Secondary

- Decrease in Traffic: reduction in ‘rat runners’

+2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +5% to + 12%

Total: -3 Total +4.5 0 +0.6 2. Ferny Grove Rail Overpass to just north of Stafford Rd/ Lutwyche Rd Intersection

Primary - Decrease in Traffic

-3 -Decrease in Traffic: Reduction in noise

+2 -1 +1.2 +5% to +12%

Total -3 Total +2 -1 +1.2 3. Cnr Kedron Park Rd/Lutwyche Rd to East West Arterial on Sandgate Rd, Toombul

Primary -Decrease in Traffic: loss of Exposure & Trade

-3 -Decrease in Traffic: reduction in noise & ‘rat runners’

+2 -1 +0.25 +7% to +10%

Secondary

No qualitative negative impacts

0 -Decrease in Traffic: reduction in ‘rat runners’

+3 +3 +3 +7% to +12%

Total -3 Total +5 +2 +3.25

3.6.2 Herston Road to Ferny Grove Rail overpass on Lutwyche Road The street level survey reveals that the primary zone in this area contains 101 retail and commercial properties and 27 residential properties. As Lutwyche Road carries a high volume of traffic everyday, both the inbound and outbound sides of Lutwyche Road contain an even spread of the commercial and retail businesses.

As these businesses are fast moving consumer goods businesses, they rely heavily upon the passing traffic for exposure. A reduction in the level of traffic passing their business in the short-term will result in a decreased level of exposure and possibly trade. A reduction in value of 10% to 18% in the Primary Zone could be expected. This reduction will be reflected in the rental rate for the property due to the reduction in trade that may occur as a result of the loss of exposure. However, it is anticipated that there will be an-uplift in values in the range of 5% to 12% for properties contained within the Secondary Zone due to the reduction in drivers trying to decrease their travel time to the city.

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As noted earlier in this report, it may be expected that the volumetric acquisition of title will have an impact on the properties contained within the primary zone. The extent of the positive and negative impacts however, will need to be studied in further detail on a case by case basis.

3.6.3 Ferny Grove Rail overpass to just north of Stafford Rd/ Lutwyche Road intersection, Kedron

From the on ground survey, there are 67 commercial and retail premises and 38 residential properties situated along Lutwyche Road. A considerable amount of these commercial and retail properties are located on the outbound side of Lutwyche Road. It is therefore inferred that a larger proportion of the overall level of the impact by the Airport Link due to the reduction in traffic will occur on the outbound side compared to that of the inbound side of Lutwyche Road.

The impact that a reduction in traffic will have in the Primary Zone of this area is considered to be similar of that could possibly be experienced in the Bowen Hills/Herston to Ferny Grove Rail Overpass area which is in the range of 10% to 18%. Once again a majority of the businesses located within this section are fast moving consumer goods businesses and rely heavily upon the high level of exposure that they receive from passing traffic. In the Secondary Zone however, a potential uplift of 7% to 15% could be witnessed due to the reduction in drivers that regularly cut through the area during periods of peak traffic.

Once again, the true impact by the reductions in traffic on the Primary and Secondary Zone in the Ferny Grove Rail Overpass to Kedron area will be due to market forces over the medium to longer-term.

The effect of the volumetric acquisition of subterranean title in this area is considered not to be as detrimental as the section further north. The degree of the positive and negative impacts however, will need to be studied in further detail on a case by case basis.

3.6.4 Corner Kedron Park Road/ Lutwyche Road to East West Arterial adjacent to Toombul Shopping Centre

From the data information provided by Connell Wagner/SKM, Knight Frank concludes that there are 210 retail and commercial businesses located in this area. This figure is skewed as 144 of these businesses are located within Centro Toombul. Therefore, only the effect on the remaining 66 retail and commercial premises has been analysed. Centro Toombul is major retail centre and will not be adversely affected by the Airport Link as it is a destination that has existed for more than 20 years and it contains a number of shopping attractors such as larger chain food outlets, banking and finance services, theatres and clothing companies.

The on ground survey has indicated that there are 120 residential properties in this section that will be impacted upon by the Airport Link. The impact that the volumetric acquisition of subterranean title will have in the area may be perceived as more severe as purchaser’s perceptions are greater when it comes to residential properties. A reduction in traffic in the primary and secondary zones in this area is expected to provide an-uplift in value in the ranges of 7% to 10% and 7% to 12% respectively. Whilst a reduction in traffic in the primary zone will reduce the number of impulse buyers passing the existing strip retail located along

PAGE 40

Junction Road and Rose Street, it will reduce the amount of ‘rat runners’ who travel through the area in peak periods of traffic to escape the pressures of Sandgate and Lutwyche Roads.

The extent of the positive and negative impacts however, will need to be studied in further detail on a case by case basis.

3.7 Future (post 2012 with both Projects in place) Given the information obtained on other major transport infrastructure projects in Australia, both the Airport Link and Interim Northern Busway Projects appear that they can on balance, provide a substantial degree of benefit to the study corridor in the medium to long term.

Overall benefits that could be achieved in the long term are:

Reduction in traffic along Sandgate and Lutwyche Roads;

Reduction in air pollution;

Potential uplift in residential streetscape and amenity;

Increased redevelopment opportunities for more intensified land uses;

Greater accessibility to major retail centres such as Centro Lutwyche via public transport, can potentially increase trade and revenue for businesses in the centre and locally;

Greater efficiencies for transportation;

Reduction in ‘rat runners’ through built up residential areas;

Greater accessibility to other key infrastructure such as the Domestic and International Airports;

Increase in social amenity; and

Gradual long term growth of capital values and leasing rates in the study corridor above the base line.

Land around the Airport Link portals at Kedron and Toombul, in the future provides the opportunity for the development of medium to higher density residential developments and commercial buildings. There already exists a number of medium density residential buildings around the preferred portal site at the East-West Arterial Road transition area along Sandgate Road heading inbound to the city and a significant amount of pre-existing higher density residential units on the Nundah side of Toombul Train Station. Construction has nearly been completed on one of two new unit developments that are within 2 to 5 minutes walking distance of Toombul Train Station. There still exist a number of sites which provide the potential for higher and better use near Toombul Station and Ross Park for the development of higher density Transit Oriented Developments.

PAGE 41

At the transition zone where the Airport Link connects with the Interim Northern Busway, there could possibly be an opportunity for the development of not only higher density residential, but for smaller sized commercial buildings also. The area which would best suit developments of this type would be to the north around the Stafford Road and Gympie Road intersection. There exist a number of new bulky goods retail outlets surrounded by smaller fragmented and non-complimentary businesses such as adult stores and second hand car dealerships. All of these current land uses in the future may be deemed inferior by the market place and the development of these sites into higher and better uses may occur.

3.8 Conclusion The diversity of property types in the study corridor will have a different scale of impact depending upon current land use. For example, a reduction in traffic will positively impact residential uses and negatively impact retail and some commercial uses. The provision of a more efficient transport hub for example will positively impact Toombul Shopping Centre as it is a destination and does not rely on passing trade or exposure.

The impacts on property can be can be summarised as follows in Table 3.4:

Table 3.4 Property Economic Impacts Summary

Use Positive Negative

Single Residential - Reduced traffic - Lower noise levels - Less impacts from lights at night - Uplift in value above the base line over time - Potential upzoning of land surrounding Busway stations over time

Acquisition of volumetric title

Multi-Residential - Higher positive impact on access due to reduced traffic - Improved access to public transport - Uplift in value above the base line over time

Retail Strip Shops - Reduced noise - Easier access - Improved transport - Uplift in value above the base line over time

- Reduced exposure - Reduced impulse buyers - Particularly impacted is high volume fast moving consumer goods. Eg. Take away food outlets, service stations etc.

Retail Centres - Easier access by improved transport will have a positive impact on trade - Uplift in value above the base line over time

- Reduction in exposure

Commercial - Easier access to places of work for employees - Reduced noise - Uplift in value above the base line over time

- Reduced exposure - Effect of easement on title and redevelopment opportunities

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From the results derived from the impact assessment, there is an overall positive benefit to the study corridor in the future if the two separate though closely located, Airport Link and Interim Northern Busway Projects are to be implemented together. As mentioned through the analysis of previous infrastructure projects, the development of the Interim Northern Busway and Airport Link to alleviate current and future traffic problems is the first step of the process to unlocking under-utilised land within the study corridor. The second process will evolve due to natural market forces over time and the assistance by the government to improve the on-ground streetscape of the study corridor.

In the medium to longer-term, it is evident from the high level of research information and data commented on and used in this corridor analysis, there will be an-uplift in property values above the base line throughout this period. However, as previously noted, a large proportion of the achievable positive growth will occur as a result of natural market forces.

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4. Airport Link Cost Benefit Analysis Modelling

4.1 Introduction This section presents the Airport Link Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) model that identifies and assesses the economic return of the Airport Link Project.

The measures of benefits and costs in the CBA reflect the concept of economic efficiency. An allocation of resources increases economic efficiency if the sum of the benefits accruing to those who gain by that allocation exceeds the sum of costs borne by those who lose. The quantification of the economic efficiency can be expressed as Net Present Value (NPV), which is the calculation of net benefits (Present Value of benefits minus Present Value of costs) over the concession period, and Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), which is the ratio of the total Present Value of benefits over the Present Value of costs.

NPV and BCR can be used to assess the economic viability of the Airport Link Project and range of sensitivities in terms of the allocated efficiency of project costs and resulting road user and other societal benefits.

The benefits and costs that are included in the Airport Link CBA are those that have been monetised by using data from actual markets (i.e. capital costs (CAPEX), operating costs (OPEX), labour prices, vehicle operating prices etc). Austroads/DMR have provided draft road user costs parameter values for 2005 while CAPEX base costs and OPEX costs have been sourced from the Project’s cost schedules. The Project CAPEX and OPEX costs that are used in the Airport Link Cost Benefit Analysis model are risk adjusted in real prices.

The CBA modelling results are not the sole determining factor of the worthiness of the Project, but considered alongside other major social, environmental and planning related Project impacts that may both difficult to measure and/or to monetise. The CBA model conforms to DMR standards and also to the Queensland Government's Project Evaluation Guidelines.

4.2 Scope The benefits or disbenefits that accrue to motorised road transport users under the current and projected scenarios have been derived from the traffic modelling that has been undertaken for the Airport Link Detailed Feasibility Study. The Airport Link Project in risk adjusted real prices and as a stand alone Project over a 45 year concession period is the scope of this Airport Link CBA model and findings. A sensitivity test using a variety of parameter changes is detailed in the Sensitivity Analysis Section 4.10.

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The CBA has the following scope as described in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 Airport Link CBA Scope

Inclusions Exclusions

Changes in consumers and business journey times including freight and vehicle operating costs;

Changes in the number of accidents as a result of VKT in the future network;

Changes of Project or noise, local air quality and water quality;

Accessibility impacts to the extent that behavioural responses to tolling are reflected in journey time and VKT on the network; and

Includes sensitivity tests using the social discount rate.

Any evidence of land use impacts in the form of land value capture in the corridor (refer section 3 Strategic Assessment Property Economic Impacts);

Broader local, regional and state economic impacts (refer to section 5 Computable General Equilibrium Modelling Section);

The impacts on broader integration with other government land use policies;

No allowance was made for the costs of disruption during construction. Traffic modelling was not undertaken at this micro level and the traffic impacts were not quantified as a result of this;

Cost of required upgrades in the Do Minimum case is not included in the analysis as these works have not been costed. (These costs could be offset against the Project CAPEX which would improve the Project BCR;

Impacts on pedestrians and cyclists; and

Net impacts on amenity biodiversity, landscape and heritage.

4.3 CBA Do Minimum (Base Case) and Project Case

4.3.1 Do Minimum (Base Case)

The CBA model provides for the Project Case as described in Sections 1.2, 4.3.2 and 4.4 of this report to be measured in comparison to the Base Case for the same network. The Base Case assumes a Do Minimum scenario, which includes some changes to the existing transport infrastructure network. The traffic modelling input data that has been used to assess the Airport Link Project uses the Brisbane Strategic Transport Model (BSTM) as its basis. The Do Minimum changes are documented in detail in the traffic section of the EIS and have assumed road network infrastructure improvements including the NSBT and the Gateway Upgrade Project.

PAGE 45

4.3.2 Project Case

Description

The Airport Link Project is the northern part of Project TransApex which proposes a tri-axis based framework of strategic arterial road connections that would allow Brisbane’s cross-city travel movements to bypass the Central Business District and inner suburbs.

Lutwyche Road, beneath which the Airport Link will be constructed, carries a total of 65,000 vehicles per day. The current AM and PM peaks and to a lesser extent other business hours traffic on Lutwyche Rd are extremely congested. Latest traffic studies show that without Airport Link, this number will increase to more than 100,000 by 2026. With the Airport Link Project constructed, traffic on Lutwyche Road would be reduced by up to 30 percent.

The proposed Airport Link is a 6 km long underground toll roads located 50 metres under the surface between Bowen Hills and Kedron/Toombul. The objective of the tunnel is to provide improved traffic conditions and flows to the northern suburbs of Brisbane and to improve road access to Brisbane’s international and domestic airports.

The concept design for the Airport Link Project includes the following features:

Two separate, parallel road tunnels, one north-bound and one south-bound;

Three lanes in each direction from North-South Bypass Tunnel connection to the Gympie Road connection. Two lanes in each direction from Gympie Road connection to East West Arterial connection;

Tunnel portals at Bowen Hills, Gympie Road and East West Arterial for Airport Link;

Safety systems including emergency egresses, fire protection and monitoring systems;

A ventilation system to manage air quality in the tunnel and near portals including elevated outlets near the portals in Bowen Hills, Kedron and Toombul for Airport Link;

Surface road changes to connect the tunnels to the existing road/bus network;

A Tunnel Control Centre;

Traffic management systems including signage, lighting, CCTV and radio/mobile rebroadcast capability; and

Electronic tolling, plant monitoring and other control systems.

Construction Costs (CAPEX) used in CBA Modelling

The CBA modelling uses undiscounted real risk adjusted CAPEX of $2.3 billion (raw costs of $1.7 billion plus risk adjusted CAPEX of approximately $500 million), with construction commencing in 2007 (land and preconstruction costs), and to be completed by August 2012. The total construction period is 50 months.

PAGE 46

The CAPEX estimates are based on the Concept Design Report and include the following assumptions as shown in Table 4.2.

Table 4.2 CBA CAPEX Assumptions

Inclusions Exclusions

All construction costs including land and pre construction costs;

All costs are valued in real terms (constant January 2006 prices) as opposed to nominal prices. Therefore, the impact of inflation is eliminated from the CBA since it is assumed that the costs will remain constant in real terms; and

All costs are risk adjusted costs (P50). Risk values were derived using Monte Carlo analysis.

Capital charges and interest costs are financial transactions and are excluded from the CBA. (Financial transactions are resource transfers from one part of the economy to another and do not increase or decrease the supply of a resource in the economy);

No allowance was made for the costs of disruption during construction. Traffic modelling was not undertaken at this micro level and the traffic impacts were not quantified as a result of this; and

Toll technology costs are excluded from the CBA.

Table 4.3 lists the CAPEX cash flows used in the Airport Link CBA model.

Table 4.3 Risk Adjusted CAPEX Cash Flows used in Airport Link CBA Modelling

Item 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Total

Risk Adjusted (P50)

Jan 06 $,000

Risk Adjusted (P50)

Jan 06 $,000

Risk Adjusted (P50)

Jan 06 $,000

Risk Adjusted (P50)

Jan 06 $,000

Risk Adjusted (P50)

Jan 06 $,000

Risk Adjusted (P50)

Jan 06 $,000

Risk Adjusted (P50)

Jan 06 $,000

Land 109,815 109,815 Preconstruction 22000 22,000 Construction

Council/State 11,778 11,778 11,778 11,778 5,889 53,000 Equipment 110,911 52,591 52,591 52,591 - 268,686 Materials 116,623 116,623 116,623 116,623 - 466,493 Labour 45,173 45,173 45,173 45,173 29,094 209,785 Subcontractor 109,640 109,640 82,015 167,085 166,243 634,624 Overheads 159,732 94,674 94,674 94,674 94,674 538,427 Subtotal 553,858 430,479 402,854 487,924 295,899 2,171,013

Total Capex 131,815 553,858 430,479 402,854 487,924 295,899 2,302,828

Operating Costs (OPEX) used in CBA Modelling

The OPEX estimates used in the CBA modelling are real risk adjusted costs and assume a 45 year concession period. The following cost items have been included in the CBA modelling:

PAGE 47

Major repairs and replacements;

Power consumption;

Routine maintenance;

Salaries and wages;

Insurances;

Water treatment plant; and

Other materials and services.

The estimated undiscounted risk adjusted OPEX over the 45 year concession period is approximately $1.3 billion inclusive of profit and overheads.

Special purpose vehicle costs for revenue and maintenance administration costs have been excluded from the CBA because they are predicated on the operator’s toll expenditures and revenues. Tolls are regarded as transfer payments in the context of CBA and are generally excluded.

4.4 CBA Modelling Items and Assumptions The most significant data inputs that impact on the CBA modelling are:

CAPEX and OPEX cost estimates;

Network traffic data for the Base Case and Airport Link Project Case (refer to Appendix B); and

Discount rate.

Other critical inputs are the parameter values used in the determination of travel time savings, vehicle operating costs (saving), road safety (savings) and environmental/externality (benefits). The current DMR/AustRoads (draft) standards for these values are in 2005 prices and have been confidentiality released for use in the Airport Link CBA model.

Table 4.4 provides a comprehensive list of items and their assumptions that have been used in the development of the Airport Link CBA model.

Table 4.4 Airport Link CBA Model Assumptions

ITEM ASSUMPTIONS

1. Price Terms CAPEX, OPEX and benefits are recorded in real terms (i.e. constant January 2006 prices)

2. CAPEX Construction cash flows commences in 2007 (land acquisition and preconstruction costs) and is to be completed by August 2012. The cost estimate is based on the Concept Design Report.

3. CAPEX Risk Adjustment (P50) Construction costs risk estimates include values for retained and transferable risks.

PAGE 48

ITEM ASSUMPTIONS

CAPEX risk values are expressed in real terms.

4. Operating and Expenditure (OPEX) Costs

OPEX cost schedule has been taken from the O&M Estimate Final Report. It excludes the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV).

5. OPEX Risk Adjustment (P50) The Project’s OPEX is risk adjusted and includes retained and transferable risks over the operating period of the Project.

OPEX risk values are provided in real terms.

6. Sunk Costs Costs that have been incurred pre 2007 on feasibility and other studies are sunk costs and are excluded from the CBA.

7. Capital Charges including Interest

These items are excluded from the CBA because they are considered a transfer of resources from one part of the economy to another. Also these items are implicitly included in the discount rate.

8. Depreciation Depreciation is excluded from the CBA because it does not have a direct economic effect. Depreciation in the form of replacement investment can generally be included in a CBA (but not in the case of the Airport Link Project) if the infrastructure asset has to be replaced during the period of analysis

9. Timing The Project timing is as follows:

Land acquisition and Preconstruction starts in 2007.

Construction starts 1 July 2008.

Construction ends August 2012.

Operations start 1 September 2012.

10. Discount Rate The discount rate as advised by Queensland Treasury is 6.8% in real terms. A social discount rate of 5.5% is to be used as part of a sensitivity test. The discount rate is used to convert CAPEX and OPEX that occur in different time periods to present values so that the values can be readily compared. The underlying principle is the social time preference in that society prefers to receive goods and services now rather than deferring to a later time period.

11. Concession Period 45 years including 50 month construction period.

12. Period of Analysis 45 years including 50 month construction period.

13. Benefit Assessment Period 40 years 9 months following the completion of construction in August 2012 and the commencement of operations of the link.

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ITEM ASSUMPTIONS Assessment period assumed is September 2012 to June 2053.

14. Traffic Data-Baseline Future base traffic data without the Airport Link in place has been provided and includes the following:

Traffic assignment years commencing in anticipated opening year 2012, 2016, 2022 and 2026.

Network base case traffic data for assignment years by:

- Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT), Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT), average speed etc);

- AM peak, PM peak, business hours and other hours; and

- Vehicle type (light and heavy vehicles) and road type (motorway, expressway, arterial, suburban, district and local).

Base traffic network covers the Brisbane Metropolitan Area or Brisbane Statistical Division (BSD).

Base traffic network includes impacts of:

- Gateway Upgrade Project (GUP); and

- North South Bypass Tunnel (NSBT).

15. Traffic Data (Future Network with Airport Link Project)

Future base traffic data with the Airport Link in place has been provided and includes the following:

Traffic assignment years commencing in anticipated opening year 2012, 2016, 2022 and 2026.

Network base case traffic data for assignment years by:

- Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT), Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT), average speed etc;

- AM peak, PM peak, business hours and other hours; and

- Vehicle type (light and heavy vehicles) and road type (motorway, expressway, arterial, suburban, district and local).

Future traffic network covers the Brisbane

PAGE 50

ITEM ASSUMPTIONS Metropolitan Area or Brisbane Statistical Division (BSD).

Project Case has been based on one tolling situation.

Base future network includes impacts of:

- GUP;and

- NSBT.

16. Vehicle Segmentation Vehicle segmentation by:

Light vehicles (Private cars);

Light Vehicles (Business cars);

Heavy vehicles.

17. Vehicle Occupancy Vehicle occupancy rates for AM peak, PM peak, business hours and other hours are generally taken from the most current SEQ Travel Surveys.

18. Average Travel Speed Calculated from VHT and VKT by vehicle category, time of day and assignment years.

19. Annualisation 330 for both light vehicles and heavy vehicles.

20. Inter Assignment Year Interpolation

Linear average annual growth between traffic assignment years.

21. Benefits Escalation beyond 2026

Assuming that the last traffic assignment year is 2026, annual traffic growth may be assumed to increase consistently with medium forecast population growth in the Brisbane Moreton Statistical Division

22. Travel Time Parameter Values DMR/AustRoads draft values for Road User Costs (2005). Values are available for vehicle category/occupancy/freight for peak, business hour and other hours.

23. Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) Models

Model coefficients taken from DMR/AustRoads 2005 draft standards.

The Urban VOC Model has been used to determine VOC by vehicle category.

Specific VOC coefficients have been used where average traffic speeds on arterial and local roads are less than 60 km/hr.

The Freeway VOC coefficients have been used for speeds greater than 60 km/hr on Motorways and Expressway road categories.

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ITEM ASSUMPTIONS

24. Accident Benefits Average accident costs by road types (local, district, sub arterial, arterial, expressway and freeway) in terms of cost per million vehicle kilometres of travel (MVKT) is used.

Values in accident costs will be on 2005 prices.

25. Environment and Externalities Environmental costs for noise, air and water pollution.

Parameter values have been sourced from the Draft Austroads/DMR 2005 values.

26. Residual Value The terminal value of the Airport Link Project after the end of the 45 year concession period is assumed to zero.

27. Sensitivity Sensitivity testing parameters:

Social discount rate variation at 5.5%;

Risk adjusted CAPEX and OPEX at P10 estimate and P90 estimate; and

Additional 1% population growth on benefits post 2026.

28. Decision Outputs The following CBA decision outputs have been delivered for the Airport Link Project:

Benefit Cost Ratio;

Net Present Value;

Present Value Costs; and

Present Value Benefits segmented by travel time benefits, VOC benefits, road safety benefits and environmental benefits.

29. Treatment of Tolls in CBA Tolls represent a means by which some of the benefits to the users of the Project (as measured by their implicit willingness to pay for reduced travel time or improved safety) can be transferred in whole or in part (in the form of cash payments by the users) to the State or private agency that operates the facility. Such transfer payments are considered outside the scope of the CBA model.

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4.5 Airport Link CBA Model Results

4.5.1 CBA Findings

Major transport infrastructure projects such as the proposed Airport Link will improve socio economic opportunities in the study corridor by generating direct road user benefits to the users via improved travel times, reduced travel costs, improved travel comfort, safety and improved environmental externalities.

The results from the CBA for the Airport Link as a stand alone Project with risk adjusted CAPEX of approximately $2.3 billion and OPEX of around $1.3 billion over a 45 year concession period at a discount rate of 6.8% are shown in Table 4.5.

Table 4.5 Airport Link CBA Findings

Output Present Value ($)

Present Value of Costs (PV) $2,239,429,888

Present Value Benefits (PV) $2,370,540,594

Net Present Value (NPV) $131,110,706

Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) 1.1

Investment criteria that have been calculated for the Airport Link Project in this CBA are NPV and BCR. The PV Benefits has been segmented by benefit type, namely: Travel Time savings, Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) savings, Road Safety savings and Environment / Externalities benefits. The PV Costs refers to the present value of the capital investment and the annual operating and maintenance costs in line with the 45 year whole of life concession period.

The NPV is the value of the discounted total future benefits minus discounted total future costs over the 45 year concession period for the Airport Link Project. On the basis of the assumptions that have been adopted, the CBA model returns a NPV of $131 million over the life of the Project. A positive NPV is an economic criterion for proceeding with the Project although other non CBA factors also need to be considered.

The BCR is equal to the discounted total benefits over the concession period divided by the discounted total costs (i.e. CAPEX and OPEX). A ratio greater than 1 indicates that the Project is economically viable in the context of the CBA although there maybe other non CBA factors (eg available program funding, social and environmental) which may also be considered to assess the full impact of the Project to fruition. The higher the BCR indicates that the Project has greater economic merit.

The BCR value that results from the Airport Link CBA model is 1.1. The BCR of 1.1 indicates that the present value of benefits provides a 10% return in value over the concession period for the Project.

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The breakdown of the road user benefits by type is provided in Table 4.6.

Table 4.6 Discounted Benefits by Type

Benefit Present Value ($) % of Benefits

Travel Time

$1,716,703,984 72%

VOC

$487,311,107 21%

Road Safety

$81,875,458 3%

Environmental

$84,650,045 4%

Total Discounted Benefits $2,370,540,594 100%

Table 4.6 and Figure 4.1 highlight the importance of Travel Time savings at $1.7 billion or 72% of total discounted benefits that will accrue to the future road network with the construction of the Airport Link Project. VOC savings at $487 million or 21% of all discounted benefits are also very significant benefits to road users. Environmental benefits at $85 million and road safety benefits at $82 million are smaller but nevertheless important benefits. These latter benefits have been derived from forecast tunnel specific vehicle data and may understate the benefits accruing from the broader road network.

Figure 4.1: Total Benefits Segregation (%)

Road Safety3%

Environmental4%

Travel Time72%

VOC21%

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Figure 4.2: Discounted Benefits Cash Flow Over 41 Year Concession Period ($ millions)

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

4.6 Travel Time Savings

4.6.1 Approach

Estimation of expected changes in travel times is a key element to consider when determining the economic effects of transport projects, including an expansion of capacity of the road network through the upgrading of the existing road or as in the case of the Airport Link providing a new major road infrastructure link in the network. Projects which improve traffic flows provide motorists with reduced journey time, less congestion in the network and enhanced network reliability that may result in time savings. These travel related time savings are assessed as having economic value in the context of CBA.

Travel time benefits equate to the net difference in user travel time costs between the Do Minimum Base Case and the Airport Link Project Case. Travel time estimates are calculated using aggregates of:

• Travel speed for each vehicle class (motor vehicles, light commercial and heavy vehicle classes);

• Average annual daily traffic by vehicle class (AADT);

• Route distance;

• Average occupancy by vehicle class; and

• Value of time per occupant and for freight by vehicle class.

The approach applied in this study uses Network Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT) data for assignment years 2012, 2016, 2022 and 2026.

This data has been segmented by vehicle class (passenger cars and heavy vehicles) and by period of travel (morning peak 7am –9am, afternoon peak 4pm – 6pm, business hours 9am – 4pm and other hours 6pm – 7am).

The vehicle class cars has been further delineated into cars (private), cars (business) and light commercial vehicles using revealed preferences data from 2001 BSTM VO1 model output.

The significance of delineating by private/business purposes and peak and business/other hours is that each has a different occupancy rate per vehicle and, in the case of cars (business – peak/business hours) and Light Commercial (peak/business hours), a higher assigned economic parameter value (value of time).

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Table 4.7 provides value of travel time on a $ per person / hours by vehicle class, time of travel and private/business.

Table 4.7 AustRoads (2005) Estimated Values of Urban Travel Time – Occupant and Freight Payload Values

Vehicle Type Occupancy Rate

Value per occupant (person-hour)

Freight travel time

Values per vehicle-hour

Cars – private Cars – business

1.6 1.4

$10.74 $34.35

- -

Rigid trucks - light commercial (2 axle, 4 tyre) - medium (2 axle, 6 tyre) - heavy (3 axle)

1.3 1.3 1.0

$21.05 $21.35 $21.80

$1.13 $3.06 $10.48

Articulated Trucks - 4 axle - 5 axle - 6 axle

1.0 1.0 1.0

$22.09 $22.39 $22.39

$22.56 $28.78 $31.03

4.6.2 Findings

Table 4.8 shows travel time savings generated by the Airport Link Project segmented by vehicle type.

Table 4.8 Discounted Travel Time Savings by Vehicle Type

Vehicle Segment Present Value ($) % of Travel Time Benefit

Cars (Business) $319,494,571 18%

Cars (Private) $1,262,776,995 74%

Light Commercial $82,005,803 5%

Heavy Commercial $52,426,616 3%

Travel Time Benefits Total $1,716,703,984 100%

Travel time savings represent the largest economic net benefit to Airport Link and are valued at over $1.8 billion in net present value terms. As shown Figure 4.3, private cars are the largest contributor to travel time savings with over 73% or $1.2 billion value to the Airport Link Project over the 45 year concession period.

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Figure 4.3: % Travel Time Savings by Vehicle Type

Cars Private74%

Cars Business19%

Light Commercial

5%

Heavy Commercial

3%

4.7 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings

4.7.1 Approach

Road projects can directly affect the cost to drivers of operating their vehicles by improving traffic flow conditions and by offering drivers better road conditions which optimise the running of their vehicles.

VOC are based on a combination of variables including fuel and oil consumption, maintenance and repair, and capital depreciation, insurance costs, road condition and gradient and vehicle speed.

VOC parameter values and journey speed vehicle operating cost models which incorporate these values are periodically updated by ARRB with the latest being in the Austroads publication, Economic Evaluation of Road Investment Proposals – Unit Values for Road User Costs (Draft), Austroads 2005.

Two journey speed vehicle operating cost models are generally used in this economic evaluation to determine VOC, namely the Urban Freeway Model and the Urban Stop Start Model. The Freeway Model is used to predict the effects of average journey speed on VOC in freeway conditions where average speeds are greater than 60km/hr, while the Urban Stop Start Model is used for more built up road conditions where average speeds are less than 60km/hr (refer Table 4.9).

Table 4.9 Parameter Values for Urban VOC Models

Freeway Model All Other Roads Vehicle Type

A B C D A B C D

Cars 15.331 141.5 0.00 0.00015 8.246 446.3 0.0 0.000609

LCV 24.311 826.0 0.00 0.00034 7.917 1387.6 0.2 0.001362

HCV & Buses 58.224 6317.0 0.00 0.00005 14.198 69254.3 0.2 0.002

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The equation for both conditions is the same but the coefficients comprising the models are different and reflect the more efficient use of vehicles in the urban freeway driving conditions. The equation is as follows:

Urban Model: c = A + B/V + C*V + D*V2

Where:

A, B, C and D = model coefficients (see tables below)

V represents all day average link speed (km/hr);

c = vehicle operating costs (cents/km)

The traffic modellers have provided Network Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) data and Average Speed data for the assignment years 2012, 2016, 2022 and 2026. The VKT data has been further delineated on the basis of vehicle classes namely cars, light commercials and heavy vehicles.

The VKT for these vehicle classes is subsequently multiplied by the respective cents / km to calculate the $ vehicle operating costs for the Do Minimum Base Case and the Airport Link Project Case Network VKT. The net difference in vehicle operating costs between the Base Case and the Project Case is the Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) savings.

4.7.2 Findings

The following table shows the findings from the VOC analysis by road type and vehicle segment.

Table 4.10 highlights the considerable importance of VOC savings at $585 million with the construction of the Airport Link Project.

Table 4.10 Discounted VOC Savings by Road Type and Vehicle Segment

Vehicle Type Cars Heavy Vehicles Total

Road Type Present Value ($) Present Value ($) Present Value ($)

Motorway -$302,161,403 -$164,701,560 -$466,862,962

Expressway $7,776,516 $643,889 $8,420,406

Arterial $332,557,417 $252,453,613 $585,011,030

Suburban $120,054,393 $84,825,918 $204,880,311

District $63,325,153 $38,388,475 $101,713,628

Local $30,763,537 $23,385,158 $54,148,695

Present Value ($) $252,315,614 $234,995,493 $487,311,107

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As shown in Figure 4.4, arterial roads represent the largest VOC savings at $605 million (cars $333 million and heavy vehicle $252 million).

Motorways showed a disbenefit of $467 million as a result of the Airport Link, which is the result of an increase in VKT and VHT on the Motorways for both cars and heavy vehicles in the Project Case over the Do Minimum (Base Case). Encouragingly, this indicates that more drivers are choosing to drive on the motorways which frees up space on the other types of road.

Figure 4.4: Discounted VOC Savings by Vehicle Segment and Road Type ($ Millions)

-$302

$8

$333

$120

$63$31

$252

-$165

$1

$252

$85$38 $23

$235

-$400

-$300

-$200

-$100

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

Mot orway Expressway Art er ial Suburban Dist r ict Local Tot al

Cars Heavy Vehicles

4.8 Road Safety Benefits

4.8.1 Approach

Road related accidents result in a multitude of adverse socio-economic impacts on the community, government services and the private sector. Some of the more significant of these impacts are:

• Immediate and ongoing medical costs;

• Unquantifiable emotional suffering;

• Property damage;

• Police and emergency services response costs;

• Road safety infrastructure enhancements;

• Lost productivity;

• Higher insurance premiums; and

• Legal costs.

Since the road network that encompasses the traffic modelling for the Airport Link CBA is the geographic area of greater Brisbane, it is impractical to review each accident in the network to identify type of accident, severity of personal and property damage and location of accident.

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The standard process for quantifying the accident reduction benefits arising from changes in the road network is to use an average accident cost measure per million VKT. As the number of VKT by road type on the network changes as a result of the Project, so will the monetisation of the accident reduction benefits. Therefore if the impact of the Project on the network results in a reduction in VKT for various road types then this will consequently reduce the number of accidents that occur in the network.

Similarly, if the Project causes a reduction in VKT on one road type but an increase in VKT in a second road type then the net impact of this on the number of accidents and in turn accident benefits will depend on the difference between average accident costs per million VKT for the two road types.

In summary, this accident benefit monetisation method uses net total VKT for two main road link class groupings (i.e. motorways, expressways, arterials, suburban, district and local) and an average accident cost per million VKT for each road grouping. The equation for monetising accident benefits is as follows.

Net $ Accident Benefits = The sum of (million VKT for each road grouping X Average Accident Cost per million VKT) for the Project Case less the same for the Do Minimum Base case.

The following Table 4.11 presents average accident costs by road type, in terms of cost per million kilometres of travel (mVKT) undertaken, for all types of vehicle collisions (both minor and severe).

Table 4.11 Adverse Accidents by Road Type

Road Type Crash Cost ($ per m VKT)

Motorway $18,200

Expressway $18,200

Arterial $58,300

Suburban $80,100

District $80,000

Local $80,100

The total VKT by Road type by assessment year and for the Do Minimum (Base Case) and two Project cases (namely the Airport Link and Interim Busway and Airport Link only) are provided in the following table:

The average accident costs per MVKT by road type have been applied to the net difference in annual VKT travelled for each road type in the assignment years of 2012, 2016, 2022 and 2026.

4.8.2 Findings

The discounted road safety savings by road type are shown in the Table 4.12.

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Table 4.12: Discounted Road Safety Benefits by Road Type

Road Type Present Value ($) % Road Safety Benefit

Motorway -$36,008,606 -44%

Expressway $1,394,225 2%

Arterial $54,612,916 67%

Suburban $37,383,946 46%

District $16,355,126 20%

Local $8,137,851 10%

Road Safety Total $81,875,458 100%

Road safety savings contributed $82 million worth of the economic benefit, which is the lowest of the road user benefits. This is significantly lower than travel time savings and VOC savings although its value to the economy should not be understated.

As shown in Figure 4.5, arterial roads made the largest contribution to road safety benefits. Motorways resulted in a disbenefit to the Airport Link due to the increase in VKT on motorways in the Project Case over the Do Minimum (Base Case). This disbenefit could be the driver for the reduction in VKT on other types of roads as drivers choose motorways instead of other types of roads.

Figure 4.5 Discounted Road Safety Benefits by Road Type ($ millions)

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Ye a r s

Motorway Expressway ArterialSuburban District Local

4.9 Environment and Externality Benefits

4.9.1 Approach

There will be a range of direct and indirect impacts on the built and natural environments that need to be considered and assessed in the EIS process. The environmental impacts that can be monetised and subsequently have implications for the CBA model are as follows:

• Noise

• Local air quality; and

• Water quality.

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Austroads in conjunction with the nation’s government road agencies has recently developed draft parameter values for the above environmental and locality areas. Austroads have qualified these values by stating… “it must be emphasised that environmental valuation involves significant uncertainty and the values presented should be regarded as illustrative of the methodology rather than definitive unit cost” (Austroads, 2006).

For this section of the CBA model it is assumed that traffic using the proposed Airport Link tunnel will specifically generate noise, local air quality, greenhouse gases and water quality benefits. The basis for these benefits arises from the shifting of forecast at grade traffic from the existing road network to the road tunnel.

The following Table 4.13 provides the 2005 Austroads externality unit cost for urban passenger vehicles and urban freight vehicles:

Table 4.13 Externality Unit Costs - Urban

Externality

Passenger Vehicle (cents per km)

Heavy vehicle ($ per 1000 tonne km)

Assumption

Noise 0.78 2.56 Tunnel infrastructure such as the Airport Link Project will eliminate surface traffic noise for those vehicles using the link but will result in a concentration of noise emissions at the portals. The primary assumption is that the Airport Link tunnel will remove around 331,000 VKT (2012) to 410,000 VKT (2026) daily from surface roads. This traffic displacement to subgrade will have beneficial traffic noise impacts along the length of the 6km tunnel. Notwithstanding this, there will be additional noise impacts on roads leading to portals.

Local Air Pollution

2.34 23.36 Similar to noise above where the Airport Link tunnel will generate sub surface VKT and the network will exhibit an easing of congestion and freer running at more efficient driving speeds. Vehicle emissions from surface roads are released at ground level and rely on atmospheric dispersion to reduce the pollutant concentrations. Ground level emissions realises adversely impact on populations in the corridor (See Chapter 9). The tunnel will employ a ventilation system where air in the tunnel is drawn into the tunnel from portals and ventilation inlets. Air will then be discharged from the tunnel through ventilations outlets. These outlets are at an elevated point above ground level that facilitates the dispersion of the filtered air into the atmosphere. The tunnels will have local air quality benefits because of the elevated points of emission from the ventilation outlets. In addition the reduction in surface traffic in the network will generate air quality benefits with the tunnel constructed.

Water Quality

0.34 2.22 Tunnel traffic will reduce surface traffic elsewhere in the network. Pollutants from vehicles have adverse impacts on the local water quality. Pollutants that are deposited on roadways include heavy metals, organic chemicals, particulants, tyre residue, oils, rust etc. These pollutants enter surface water at groundwater from runoff from the roadway. The increased impervious surface area associated with the road pavement also speeds the conveyance of water runoff into local creeks. Similar pollutants will be deposited on tunnel roads, walls and ceilings but will be treated as part of the water treatment service within the tunnel (See Chapter 8).

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4.9.2 Findings

The following Table 4.14 shows the environmental savings by environmental type and vehicle type as a result of the Airport Link Project.

Table 4.14: Discounted environmental benefits by vehicle type ($)

Vehicle Type Cars Heavy Vehicles Total

Environmental Benefit

Present Value ($) Present Value ($) Present Value ($)

Noise

$9,605,330 $3,824,697 $13,430,027

Air Pollution

$28,815,990 $34,900,360 $63,716,350

Water Pollution

$4,186,939 $3,316,729 $7,503,668

Total Environmental Benefits

$42,608,259 $42,041,786 $84,650,045

Environmental benefits account for approximately 4% of the total economic benefits to the Project. In dollar terms, environmental savings were approximately $85 million (cars $ 43 million and heavy vehicles $42 million). As shown in Figure 4.6, this is due largely to the contribution of Air Pollution at approximately $64 million (cars $29 million and heavy vehicles $35 million), which represents 75% of environmental benefits.

Environmental cost savings generated by cars and heavy vehicles using Airport Link was relatively even return at $43 million and $42 million respectively. Interestingly, cars contributed higher savings than heavy vehicles regarding to noise and water pollution but lower air pollution savings.

Figure 4.6: Discounted environmental benefit by vehicle type ($ millions)

$10

$29

$4$4

$35

$3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Noise Air Pollution Water Pollution

Cars Heavy Vehicles

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4.10 Sensitivity Analysis A sensitivity analysis was undertaken on the Airport Link Project Case to determine how different parameters affect the economic return of the Project Case. Table 4.15 lists the additional parameters modelled in the Airport Link sensitivity analysis.

Table 4.15: Sensitivities modelled

Sensitivity Details Undiscounted CAPEX

Undiscounted OPEX

BCR

Project Case

P50 risk adjusted CAPEX/OPEX; 6.8% discount rate.

$2.3 billion $1.3 billion 1.1

2 P50 risk adjusted CAPEX/OPEX; 5.5% discount rate.

$2.3 billion $1.3 billion 1.3

3 P10 risk adjusted CAPEX/OPEX; 6.8% discount rate.

$2.2 billion $1.2 billion 1.1

4 P90 risk adjusted CAPEX/OPEX; 6.8% discount rate.

$2.5 billion $1.5 billion 1.0

5 P50 risk adjusted CAPEX/OPEX; 6.8% discount rate; Population growth plus 1% post 2026.

$2.3 billion $1.3 billion 1.1

The summary results from the sensitivity analysis are shown in Table 4.16. For a detailed list of the sensitivity results refer to Appendix C.

Table 4.16 Discounted sensitivity results

Sensitivity 1 2 3 4 5

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Project Case Discount rate 5.5%

P10 Risk Estimate

P90 Risk Estimate

Plus 1% growth post 2026

Present Value of Costs (PV)

2,239,429,888 2,378,393,731 2,127,099,157 2,433,612,632 2,239,429,888

Present Value Benefits (PV)

2,370,540,594 3,072,626,243 2,370,540,594 2,370,540,594 2,499,628,605

Net Present Value (NPV)

131,110,706 694,232,512 243,441,436 -63,072,038 260,198,717

Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)

1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1

4.10.1 Findings

The key findings from the sensitivity analysis include:

• BCRs are in the range of 1.0 to 1.3, which is breakeven or a better investment result from an economic perspective. It should be noted however, that as a result of rounding, Sensitivity 4 achieved an NPV of -$63 million.

• The results of the sensitivity testing concluded little impact to BCRs with ranges of 1.0 to 1.3;

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• There was however, a significant impact on the NPVs with returns in the range of $694 million (Sensitivity 2) and -$63 million (Sensitivity 4); and

• Sensitivity 2 (5.5% discount rate) achieved the best economic return with an NPV of $694 million and BCR of 1.3.

4.11 Induced Travel Demand The operational phase of the Airport Link Project from 2012 may impact on travel behaviour in the corridor and broader road network.

Significant road infrastructure improvements such as the Airport Link will reduce congestion, improve network connectivity and thereby reduce the generalised cost of driving. The resulting increase in vehicle travel demand vis-à-vis demand that would have otherwise occurred without the Project consists of generated traffic of which “induced travel” is a subset.

Induced travel is that part of generated traffic that is the increase in vehicle demand (ie total VKT) due to increased motor vehicle trip frequency, relatively longer trip distances or shifts from other transport modes but excludes travel shifted from other times and routes.

The BSTM Base Demand Model that has been developed for the traffic modelling of the Airport Link Project has addressed induced demand into the model by applying an elasticity of demand of -0.2 to the forecasted traffic changes.

The traffic modelling identified that daily induced private vehicle demand is forecast to be approximately 20,600 additional daily trips in 2012 or a very minor 0.49% of the total daily network trips of 4,219,000. In 2026 the daily induced private vehicle demand is forecast to increase to 34,700 private vehicle trips or only 0.67% of total 5,180,800 private vehicle trips in the modelled network.

The traffic modelling concluded the relatively minor nature of daily induced private vehicle demand across all networks including cross river demand and with the NSBT, Airport Link and Hale Street link included in the model (see also Traffic Report section of the EIS .

4.12 Conclusion The conclusions from the Airport Link CBA for the Project Case (risk adjusted CAPEX of $2.3 billion and a discount rate of 6.8%) and sensitivity analysis are as follows:

• The Airport Link Project case with risk adjusted CAPEX of $2.3 billion and a discount rate of 6.8% returns a BCR of 1.1 and a NPV of around $131 million over the 45 year concession period. These investment results provide an economic justification for the Project proceeding although not a compelling justification;

• For the Project Case, travel time savings at $1.7 billion (in present value terms) contribute the major of benefits at 73% of total benefits followed by VOC at $487 million (20%), road safety at $82 million (3%) and, environmental / externalities at $85 million (4%);

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• Road Safety and environmental monetised benefits may be understated since they are driven by proposed tunnel VKT rather than network traffic data;

• The sensitivity testing of the Airport Link Project Case returned BCRs in the range of 1.0 to 1.3, which is breakeven or a better investment result from an economic perspective. It should be noted however, that as a result of rounding, Sensitivity 4 achieved an NPV of -$63 million; and

• The sensitivity analysis showed a significant impact on the NPVs with returns in the range of $694 million (Sensitivity 2) and -$63 million (Sensitivity 4).

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5. Computable General Equilibrium Modelling

5.1 Introduction The SKM / Connell Wagner Joint Venture commissioned the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) at Monash University to estimate the economic effects of the Brisbane Airport Link Project on the Queensland economy. This report details the method and results of this study.

The economy-wide effects of the proposed Airport Link have been estimated using the MONASH Multiregional Forecasting (MMRF-GREEN) model of the Australian economy. MMRF-GREEN is a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that captures the behaviour of economic agents in each Australian state and territory. Results for Queensland are provided for the period 2007, when preconstruction activities are scheduled to commence, to 2052. For the construction period, 2007 to 2012, state results for Queensland are also decomposed into the effects on South East Queensland (SEQ) and the rest of Queensland. A brief overview of the key features of MMRF-GREEN is provided in Section 5.2.1. Section 5.2.2 provides a description of the set of simulations undertaken, including the computation of the economic shocks imposed (i.e. direct costs and benefits) for each year of the simulation, and the underlying macroeconomic assumptions.

The model results for the economic effects of the Airport Link are presented in Section 5.4.

5.2 Study Method

5.2.1 MMRF-GREEN

The MMRF-GREEN model divides Australia into eight regions (the six states and two territories) and eleven regions within Queensland (the state’s statistical divisions). At the state level there is detailed modelling of the behaviour of five types of economic agents: industries, capital creators, households, governments, and foreigners. For a detailed description of MMRF see Adams, et al (2003). For a briefer overview, see Adams et al. (2000).

In the version of MMRF-GREEN used for the study, there are 50 industry sectors. All industries, except Petroleum Products, produce a single commodity. Investment is allocated across industries to maximise rates of returns to investors (households, firms). Capital creators assemble, in a cost-minimizing manner, units of industry-specific capital for each industry. Each state has a single household and a state government. There is also a federal government. Finally, there are foreigners, whose behaviour is summarised by export demand curves for the products of each state and by supply curves for international imports to each state.

As is standard in CGE models, MMRF-GREEN determines the supply and demand for each regionally-produced commodity as the outcome of optimising behaviour of economic agents. Regional industries are assumed to choose labour, capital and land so as to maximize their profits while operating in a competitive market. In each region a representative household purchases a particular bundle of goods in accordance with the household’s preferences, relative prices and its amount of disposable income.

States are linked via interstate trade, interstate migration and capital movements and governments operate within a fiscal federal framework.

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In the current study we make use of the dynamic features of MMRF-GREEN to generate a baseline forecasts for the Australian and Queensland economies. We then conduct simulations to examine the deviations away from the baseline that result from the Brisbane Airport Link.

MMRF-GREEN provides results for economic variables on a year-on-year basis. The results for a particular year are used to update the database for the commencement of the next year. In particular, the model contains a series of equations that connect capital stocks to past-year capital stocks and net investment. Similarly debt is linked to past and present borrowing/saving and regional population is related to natural growth and international and interstate migration.

5.2.2 The Simulations

Simulation Design

In the present study we first conduct MMRF-GREEN simulations to produce a baseline forecast for the Australian economy for the period 2004 to 20521. The MMRF-GREEN forecasts, particularly for the earlier years2, reflect a wide variety of information including: macroeconomic forecasts from the Commonwealth Treasury and other analysts; export volume and price forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics; forecasts of tourist numbers from Bureau of Tourism Research; forecasts of tariff rates from the Productivity Commission; and forecasts of changes in technology and consumer tastes derived from trends calculated at CoPS. Using this information the model generated forecasts for a wide range of variables at the national, state and regional level.

We assume that our baseline forecast does not incorporate the Airport Link Project. We then repeat our forecast under the same assumptions as above, except that for this new forecast (which, for convenience we shall call the policy forecast) we incorporate additional economic shocks designed to represent the incorporation of the Airport Link Project. The new forecasts are then compared with the baseline forecasts. Results are reported as deviations (in percentage change terms) of the policy forecast from the baseline forecast for each year of the period 2007 to 2052. Thus the results show the effects on the economy of the construction and operation of the Airport Link over a 46 year period starting in 2007.

Exogenous Shocks

Estimates for direct costs and benefits of Airport Link for the period 2007 to 2052 were provided by Connell Wagner. These figures consisted of capital expenditure for each year of the construction phase, 2007 to 2012, operating costs for each year from 2013 to 2052, and annual estimates for four types of benefits. These benefits were for the value of travel-time savings (distinguished between

1 We created the starting database for 2004 (i.e. the 2003 economy) by conducting historical simulations from the year 1998 with MMRF-GREEN.

2 Forecasts for the later years are based on simple projections for the economic shocks which drive the model.

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private and commercial cars), vehicle operating benefits, road safety benefits and environmental benefits.

These figures were used as the basis of the shocks imposed on the model over the simulation period. Capital expenditure was assumed to consist entirely of expenditure on the MMRF commodity, Construction, while operating expenses was assumed to consist entirely of expenditure on the commodity, Other transport3.

It was assumed that the capital and operating expenditures were funded by tolls on vehicles using the Airport Link. It was further assumed that these tolls were levied on the operation of three industries, Road passenger transport, Road freight and Private transport services4. The third of these industries covers the operation of private motor cars by households. We assumed a single toll rate (in constant price terms) per vehicle using the Link (both commercial and private) over the entire operating phase to 2052. Passenger kilometre estimates for usage of the link, supplied to CoPS by Connell Wagner, was used as the basis for estimating the growth in annual tolled vehicle numbers over the operating period. The toll rate was computed so that the net present value of toll revenue would equal the net present value of capital and operating expenditures at a discount rate of 6.8 per cent (all revenue and expenditure at constant prices).

Only the commercial vehicles component of time savings was modeled. It was assumed that these time savings reduced labour costs by unit of output. The labour savings were spread between Road passenger transport and Road freight in accordance with their base year outputs. It is important when considering the results later in this report to keep in mind that we assume the bulk of time saving (i.e. that by private motorists) is not modeled in this study as affecting economic activity. That is, we assumed that private motorists will use all of the time they save as leisure. The increased leisure is, however, a gain to household welfare. Thus when considering the gains to household we should combine the value of increased leisure time with the change in real household consumption.

Vehicle operating benefits covers savings in repairs, parts and fuel. These cost savings were distributed to Road passenger transport, Road freight and Private transport services in proportion to their outputs. For each of these industries, their cost savings were spread across various categories of fuel saving (Petrol automotive, Diesel, LPG and Other petroleum), motor vehicle repairs (which falls to the industry Trade and hotels), and Cars & car parts, Other manufacturing, and Financial & business services in accordance with the particular industries base-year proportions for these purchases.

Time constraints on this study meant we did not model road safety or environmental benefits. Each of these two types of benefits is estimated to make up around 3½ per cent of total benefits. Both can be

3 The MMRF commodity/industry, Other transport, covers the ANZSIC groups, Services to transport and Other transport. The former includes Services to Road transport that in turn includes Toll road operations.

4 While Road passenger transport and Road freight make up a substantial portion of commercial vehicle operation, there are a number of other MMRF industries which include sizeable commercial transport activities (particularly, Trade & hotels and Financial & business services). However, time constraints of the project meant we restricted our shocks to commercial transport to the road passenger and freight industries.

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expected to have some (small) effect on the composition of economic activity5, but are unlikely to have any noticeable effect on major economic aggregates. But as with additional leisure, both represent an increase in household welfare.

5.2.3 Other Assumptions

Labour markets

During the construction phase, we allow the increased demand for labour to have some effect on the level of national employment. From 2012, as the construction phase winds down and the operation of the Link commences, we assume that national employment commences a gradual returns to its baseline path. At the regional level, we assume that inter-state wage-rate differentials are maintained at their base case levels. Accordingly, states that are favourably affected by the Brisbane Airport Link will experience increased in-migration6.

Real Consumption

In each year of the deviation scenarios, aggregate real private consumption in state r diverges from its base case level by an amount reflecting the divergence in real income available to the residents of r.

The time path of real public consumption, both state and federal, is assumed to be unaffected by the Brisbane Airport Link Project.

Balance of Trade

It is assumed that the Airport Link has no affect on Australia’s balance of trade in each year of the simulation period. Thus from the nation’s point of view, it is assumed that macroeconomic settings are such that the Project is financed domestically (via an increase in private savings). It should be noted that this assumption does not exclude the possibility that the Link Project attracts foreign loans or equity capital, but simply that the Project has no overall effect on Australia’s external liabilities, with Airport-Link construction being allowed to crowd out private consumption during the construction phase of the Project.

Investment and capital stocks

At the national level, we assume conservatively that the Brisbane Airport Link generates no induced effects on aggregate investment. Thus, the only effect on the country’s capital stock is the addition of the new airport link. Together with our assumption of no deviation in the balance of trade from its

5 For instance, there would be a decrease in vehicle repairs and health expenditure and a corresponding increase in other consumption. Clearly if repair or health expenditure can be avoided, due to lower pollution and less accidents, the expenditure on alternative goods which can be purchased within the same total budget represent an increase in household utility.

6 Technically we assume labour is mobile between state economies. This would appear an appropriate long-run simulation, but may not be appropriate in the short-run. However, there is very little difference between this assumption and that of assuming that unemployment rate varies with both interstate wage relativities and interstate labour mobility held constant. The only difference is that our assumption does not take into account the (automatic stabilizing) impact of unemployment benefits.

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baseline path, this assumption has the advantage of making real consumption a reasonable indicator of welfare (when combined with leisure, accident and environmental benefits). Short-run divergences in rates of return on regional industry capital stocks from the national average rate of return are allowed to occur. This in turn causes inter-industry and inter-regional divergences in investment and capital stocks. Divergences in capital stocks across regions and industry gradually erode the divergences in rates of return.

Production technologies

MMRF-Green contains many types of technical change variables. In the deviation simulations we assume that all technology variables have the same values as in the base case simulation, except for those variables that are used to implement shocks (namely material-saving and labour-saving technological improvements in the road transport industries).

5.3 Results

Overall results

Percentage deviations from the basecase forecast resulting from the Airport Link are shown for key macroeconomic variables for Queensland, the Rest of Australia (RoA) and Australia as a whole are shown in Table 17. Queensland results are shown in Table 2 for both percentage deviations and absolute deviations (e.g. $ million, average-time jobs). Regional employment results are shown in Table 3.

Results are shown for 46 years of the Project. The years 2007 to 2011 can be thought of as the construction phase of the Project. The year 2012 can be thought of as a transition year in which the last eighth of the construction is completed and vehicles commence traveling on the Link. The years 2013 to 2052 will be referred to as the operating phase.

National results

It can be seen that during an average year of the construction phase the Project generates an increase in national employment of around 0.02 per cent (see Table 1 and Figure 1) which consequently generates an increase in Gross Domestic Product of about 0.01 per cent in a typical construction-phase year (Table 1 and Figure 2). However, national real household consumption is negatively affected by the Airport Link during the construction phase as resources are diverted towards investment (Figure 3). In a typical year of the period, national real consumption (with the airport link) is about 0.05 per cent below the baseline (without airport link) forecast.

During a typical year of the 40-year operating phase national real GDP is about $150 million above the baseline forecast. This is due mainly to the use of additional capital (i.e. that of the firm operating the Airport Link) plus a small technological improvement associated with the operation of the Link. This is accompanied by a slightly elevated national real household consumption.

Queensland results

7 See Glossary at the end of this report for a definition of terms.

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Queensland, however, displays a different pattern of results. During the construction phase there is an increase in Queensland employment and gross state product, generated by construction of the Link. While real consumption is squeezed Australia-wide, since we assume that the Project is financed in a macroeconomic sense from domestic savings, the residents of Queensland only contribute part of the saving (less than a fifth). This means that real household consumption increases in Queensland during the construction period. During the operating phase the results for Queensland are more complex. While the benefits of the new Airport Link flow through in this period, Queensland households are now subject to a toll that reduces their capacity to buy normal goods and services. This means that while Queensland real consumption (which includes expenditure on Other transport via tolls) is positively affected in the operating period, its employment declines as expenditure is switched towards paying for use of the new Airport Link. We now proceed to discuss the various elements of the impacts on the Queensland economy in more detail.

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Table 5.1 Macroeconomic Effects of Brisbane Airport Link (% deviations from Baseline) p (p g )

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Qld 0.01 0.31 0.25 0.24 0.29 0.22 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04ROA 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.05 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Real Gross Domestic Product Aus 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01Qld 0.01 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.17 0.25 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.06ROA 0.00 -0.10 -0.11 -0.12 -0.14 -0.09 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Aus 0.00 -0.05 -0.07 -0.07 -0.08 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Qld 0.08 1.86 1.42 1.30 1.55 0.70 -0.12 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 -0.09 -0.08ROA 0.00 -0.10 -0.08 -0.07 -0.08 -0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Aus 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Qld 0.02 0.39 0.28 0.26 0.31 0.13 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03ROA 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 -0.05 -0.05 -0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Aus 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038Qld 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00ROA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Real Gross Domestic Product Aus 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00Qld 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02ROA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Aus 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Qld -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.05 -0.11ROA 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02Aus 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Qld -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.03 -0.05ROA 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Aus 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052Qld 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02ROA 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Real Gross Domestic Product Aus 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Qld 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01ROA 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Aus 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Qld -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.10 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11ROA 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Aus 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Qld -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06ROA 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Aus 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Real investment

Employment (hours)

Employment (hours)

Real Gross State Product

Real Gross State Product

Real Gross State Product

Real consumption

Real investment

Real consumption

Real investment

Employment (hours)

Real consumption

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Table 5.2 Impact of Airport Link on Queensland Macroeconomic Variables (deviations from Baseline)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022% 0.01 0.31 0.25 0.24 0.29 0.22 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04$m 20 499 410 403 500 402 153 129 117 109 104 99 95 92 89 87% 0.01 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.17 0.25 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.06$m 7 175 156 155 191 283 84 67 61 58 56 54 52 51 51 87% 0.08 1.86 1.42 1.30 1.55 0.70 -0.12 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 -0.09 -0.08$m 30 763 594 559 679 314 -54 -51 -52 -54 -52 -54 -54 -50 -47 -46% 0.02 0.39 0.28 0.26 0.31 0.13 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03jobs 308 7,591 5,607 5,119 6,209 2,602 -325 -593 -659 -670 -660 -695 -714 -665 -634 -652

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038% 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00$m 82 76 70 64 59 53 47 42 37 32 25 19 14 8 5 -2% 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02$m 85 82 79 76 74 70 67 64 62 60 56 51 48 45 47 42% -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.09 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.05 -0.11$m -56 -58 -59 -60 -55 -64 -66 -64 -62 -57 -73 -77 -79 -76 -42 -87% -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.03 -0.05jobs -797 -840 -871 -906 -839 -1,013 -1,059 -1,053 -1,027 -964 -1,227 -1,322 -1,368 -1,331 -787 -1,459

2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052% 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02$m -9 -14 -20 -25 -31 -38 -44 -50 -57 -64 -71 -77 -85 -91% 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01$m 35 31 28 26 22 18 13 9 5 0 -4 -9 -14 -19% -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.10 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11$m -93 -91 -90 -86 -95 -98 -101 -104 -107 -111 -114 -118 -121 -118% -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06jobs -1,596 -1,598 -1,588 -1,514 -1,655 -1,706 -1,757 -1,807 -1,857 -1,908 -1,959 -2,008 -2,058 -1,999

* Employment numbers are in terms of average-time jobs

Employment*

Real investment

Employment*

Real Gross State Product

Real consumption

Real investment

Real Gross State Product

Real consumption

Real Gross State Product

Real consumption

Real investment

Employment*

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Figure 5.1 Effects of Airport Link on Employment (% deviation from Baseline) g p y (p g )

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.5020

07

2009

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National employment Queensland employment

Figure 5.2 Effect of Link on GDP / GSP (% deviation from Baseline)

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g (p g )

-0.05

0.00

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National real GDP Queensland real GSP

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Figure 5.3 Effect of Link on Real Consumption (% deviation from Baseline) g p (p g )

-0.20

-0.15

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0.00

0.05

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2007

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National real consumption Queensland real consumption RoA real consumption

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Figure 5.4 Impact of Airport Link on Queensland Value Added by Major Sector g p p y j

-200

-100

0

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60020

07

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$m

Primary Sector Manufacturing Sector Road Transport Other Service Sector Queensland

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Figure 5.5 Impact on Queensland Employment by Major Sector

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

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2007

2009

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jobs

Primary Sector Manufacturing Sector Road Transport Other Service Sector Queensland

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Queensland Real GSP (Table 2, Figure 5.2 refers)

In a typical year of the construction phase8, real gross state product for Queensland deviates around 0.22 per cent (or $366 million9) above its baseline forecast value. This results from the direct expenditure on construction of the Airport Link, plus local multiplier effects.

In a typical year of the operating phase Queensland real GSP is projected to be almost $26 million above the baseline forecast (or about 0.02 per cent) as a result of the Airport Link. This arises from the services of new Other transport (operators of the toll road) capital and increased productivity arising from faster transport. However, with a switch in Queensland consumption towards the highly capital-intensive Airport Link - and with lower labour requirements in the road transport industry (see section 3.3.4) - the requirement for Queensland labour inputs in aggregate declines. This has a dampening effect on the increase in a typical year’s GSP.

Queensland Employment (Table 2, Figure 1 refers)

During a typical year of the construction phase, Queensland employment is projected to be around a quarter of a per cent above its baseline forecast value. However, as explained in the previous section, Queensland employment is slightly negatively affected in the operating phase (-0.04 per cent in a typical year).

Queensland Real Consumption

Queensland real household consumption is projected to be around $137 million (or 0.13 per cent) above baseline in a typical year of the construction phase. In a typical year of the operating phase Queensland real household consumption is projected to be around $44 million above the baseline forecast for this variable. However, household consumption of the Airport Link is estimated to be $151 million in a typical operating-phase year, meaning that household real expenditure on other goods is projected to be $107 million below what it would have been in a typical year of the phase.

Queensland Industry Sectors

The effects of the Airport Link on four Queensland industry sectors are shown in Figures 4 (value-added) and 5 (employment). During the construction phase it can be seen that all Queensland sectors are projected to experience positive effects from the Airport Link on value added and employment. The vast bulk of this is the contribution of the Other Services sector. In a typical year of the construction phase, two thirds of the positive deviation of $334 million in that sector’s value-added comes from the Construction industry, while a further quarter comes from Trade & hotels and Finance & business services. Construction, however, makes up only 40 per cent of the positive effects on Other services employment (1,775 out of 4,450 jobs in a typical construction-phase year), while Trade & hotels (1,330) and Finance & business services (860) together make up half of the positive effect on that sector’s employment.

8 It should be recalled that the construction phase is defined as the 5-year period 2007 to 2011. The year 2012 is treated as a transition year, with the 40-year operating phase commencing in 2013.

9 All dollar figures reported here are in 2007 prices.

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During the operating phase there is a positive effect on the value-added of the Road transport sector ($21 million in a typical operating-phase year) due to the sector’s improved productivity that arises from time-savings and reduced vehicle operating costs. However, the time savings mean that a particular transport task can be done with fewer labour inputs. The output of Road transport is not expanded nearly enough by the Airport Link to offset this effect, and there are some 550 less jobs in the Queensland Road Transport sector in a typical year of the phase as a result. The other sector to lose employment is Other services which in a typical year of the operating phase is about 540 jobs below the baseline forecast. This occurs basically through a local multiplier effect. Other services includes industries like Trade & hotels that are negatively affected by the reduction in employment in the transport industries. However, this sector’s value added is, like Road transport, positively affected ($34 million in a typical operating year). However, the reason is different. It is due mainly to the expansion of a particular industry within Other services, namely Other transport that operates the capital-intensive Airport Link (which employs relatively little labour per dollar of revenue). However, as Figure 4 indicates, Other Services value added steadily declines over the period as the negative multiplier effect gets larger gradually outweighing the positive output effects of Other transport.

South-East Queensland

We turn now to considering the impacts in South-East Queensland (SEQ). MMRF models agents at the state level. While top-down decomposition methods allow sub-state regional results to be generated from MMRF state results, this methodology is really only suitable for shocks that occur fairly evenly across the state (Giesecke, 1999). To model a region-specific shock requires a bottom-up multiregional model that explicitly treats the behaviour of economic actors at the sub-state level. A model of this type has become available over the past few years. It is entitled TERM (Horridge, et al., 2005). However, this model is not sufficiently developed in terms of its dynamic properties and its handling of the transport sector for it to be used in the present study. We were thus able to produce SEQ results only for the construction phase, for which period a top-down decomposition, though not ideal, can reasonably be used. The decomposition is achieved under the simple assumption that all of the impact on the construction industry occurs in SEQ. This, together with local multiplier effects, implies that the vast bulk of the employment effect occurs in the south-east of the state.

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Table 5.3 Impact of Airport Link on Employment in South East Queensland (average-time jobs_

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Primary Sector 0 -4 -13 -13 -14 -9Manufacturing 16 385 285 276 355 235Utilities 1 18 10 7 8 1Construction 104 2,577 2,029 1,897 2,267 1,443Trade & hotels 56 1,378 992 889 1,075 297Road transport 7 177 112 94 117 -274Other transport 2 54 18 11 19 2Other Services 58 1,427 1,082 983 1,178 590Total SEQ 244 6,011 4,514 4,144 5,006 2,285Rest Qld 65 1,580 1,093 975 1,203 317

PAGE 82

References

Adams, P.D., M.J. Horridge and B.R. Parmenter (2000), “Forecasting for Australian Regions Using the MMRF-GREEN Model”, Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 6(3), pp. 293-322.

Adams, P.D., M.J. Horridge, G. Wittwer (2003), “MMRF-GREEN: A Dynamic Multi-Regional Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy, Based on the MMR and MONASH Models”, CoPS Working Paper G-140, Centre of Policy Studies and Impact Project, Monash University, Melbourne, pp. 70.

Giesecke, J.A. (1999) “Modelling the Regional Consequences of Commonwealth Policy – The Case of the Fringe Benefits Tax”, Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 5(3), pp. 365-376.

Horridge JM, Madden JR, Wittwer G (2005) “Impact of the 2002-03 Drought on Australia”, Journal of Policy Modeling 27(3):285–308

Glossary

Deviation from the baseline means the percentage/dollar/job deviation from the baseline forecast result for that variable which comes about as a result of the construction and operation of the airport link. The baseline forecast assumes the airport link is not built.

Real values refer to economic aggregates that have been appropriately deflated for changes in price levels.

Gross State Product (GSP) is the value of final goods and services produced annually in a state (valued at market prices)

Value Added of an industry is equal to the value of the primary factors employed by the industry. That is, value added is the difference between an industry’s total output and its bought-in inputs (materials and services).

Consumption refers to expenditure by households on goods and services (including the services of Other Transport which operates toll roads).

Investment refers to formation of capital (i.e. the production of physical assets such as infrastructure, plant, machinery and equipment).

An average-time job represents about 34 hours work a week (an average of part-time and full-time hours).

PAGE 83

6. Project Justification – Economic Perspective

Traffic using the proposed Airport Link Project is a function of existing and forecast population and commercial and industrial land use and economic activity in the Airport Link geographic corridor, and the broader Brisbane metropolitan area and surrounding local authority services.

The South East Queensland Regional Plan highlights that the population of the region is forecast to increase from the current 2.6 million people to about 3.7 million in 2026. The Brisbane metropolitan area is forecast to increase from 1.55 million to more than 2 million by 2016.

Economic activity in the Brisbane metropolitan area is forecast to continue to expand with Brisbane Airport, the Port of Brisbane and other major commercial and industrial development in the outer North area likely to be a catalyst for substantial economic growth.

In particular, total revenue passenger movements of Brisbane Airport have increased from 9.2 million in 1995 / 96 to 15.4 million in 2004 / 05 at an average annual growth rate of 6.7%. This increase in passenger movements at Brisbane Airport over the past decade has placed heightened pressure on the road network that feeds into the airport from the Brisbane CBD and the broader Brisbane metropolitan area. The continued implementation of the Brisbane Airport 2003 Master Plan and the ongoing development of the seven master planned aviation, commercial and industrial precincts will also be a significant generator of additional traffic and employment.

The Port of Brisbane has experienced significant trade growth over the past decade which is forecast to continue in the medium to long term. The port is Australia’s third largest container port and growth in container segment has increased from 249,438 containers in 1995 / 96 to 726,145 containers in 2004 / 05. Total container volumes are projected to reach around 1.9 million in 2025.

The Australia Trade Coast including Trade Coast Central and the Outer North, Outer South and Outer West areas will also be the location for future significant industrial and commercial development that will continue to fuel economic activity and economic growth in the broader Brisbane region.

Efficient freight movements will be required to support and facilitate this projected economic activity. The Transport Plan for Brisbane 2002 – 2016 states that about 90% of freight movements in South East Queensland originate or has its destination in Brisbane. Urban freight movements are estimated to be increasing at a rate of 4% annually.

The South East Queensland Regional Plan identifies that the increase in the region’s population will generate an additional 425,000 jobs by 2026. The Transport Plan for Brisbane highlights that existing and future employment growth is becoming decentralised in the Brisbane Metropolitan area. The significance of Brisbane in the region is exhibited by the fact that 90% of Brisbane’s residents work within Brisbane City Council boundaries and approximately 50% of residents from surrounding local government areas travel to work in Brisbane. This trend has significant implications for cross city travel particularly in the morning and afternoon peaks when congestion adversely affects the network. Employment growth in the Brisbane CBD and Brisbane City’s outer areas is forecast to increase by 19% and 45% respectively between 2006 and 2016.

PAGE 84

The proposed increase in the region’s and Brisbane’s population and the projected expansion of economic activity has increased the need for new road infrastructure such as the Airport Link to support the projected growth. The Airport Link Project will be a key influence on the future pattern and rate of economic development in the region and in Brisbane.

The major economic conclusions from the Airport Link CBA model and the Computable General Equilibrium Modelling are as follows:

• The Airport Link Project case with risk adjusted CAPEX of $2.3 billion and a discount rate of 6.8% returns a BCR of 1.1 and a NPV of around $131 million over the 45 year concession period. This investment results provide an economic justification for the Project proceeding although not a compelling justification.

• Travel time savings at $1.7 billion (in present value terms) contribute the major of benefits at 72% of total benefits followed by VOC at $488 million (21%), road safety at $82 million (3%) and, environmental / externalities at $85 million (4%).

• The sensitivity testing of the Airport Link Project Case returned BCRs in the range of 1.0 to 1.3, which is breakeven or a better investment result from an economic perspective. It should be noted however, that as a result of rounding, Sensitivity 4 achieved an NPV of -$63 million.

• The Airport Link CAPEX of $2.3 billion and OPEX of $1.3 billion over the 45 year concession period represents a significant investment catalyst that will result in significant direct and indirect benefits to the Brisbane, the South East Queensland and the Queensland economies.

• Queensland however, displays a different pattern of results. During the construction phase there is an increase in Queensland employment and gross state product, generated by construction of the Airport Link. The impact of the Airport Link on employment in South East Queensland will range from 6,011 FTE’s when the construction starts in 2008 to 2,285 FTE’s during the last year of construction in 2012. Real consumption is squeezed Australia-wide since the Project is financed in a macroeconomic sense from domestic savings and the residents of Queensland will only contribute part of the saving (less than a fifth). This means that real household consumption increases to around $137 million in Queensland during a typical year in the construction period.

• During the operating phase, Queensland residents pay for the Airport Link via a toll. Since it is assumed that a large portion of the benefits are consumed in the form of increased leisure time for Queensland households (and accident and environment savings are not modelled), Queensland real household expenditure falls relative to the baseline in this phase.

The Airport Link will be a very significant section of road infrastructure that will support and facilitate population and key economic growth areas in Brisbane and the region. The Airport Link CBA model results provide a moderate economic justification for proceeding with the Project, while the CGE modelling results in positive economic impacts for Queensland and South East Queensland from the construction and operations phase of the Project.

PAGE 85

PAGE 86

APPENDIX AStreet Level Survey Business Activity Maps

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Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

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Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

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Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

Other Manufacturing

Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services

Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants

Services to Transport

Communication

Finance

Insurance

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Propoerty Services

Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Health Services

Community Services

Libraries Museums and the Arts

Sports and Recreation

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Other Serrvices

Mixed Use

Vacant Sop Land Lot

Parking

Residential

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3RP62921

2RP62921

BUP104925 112RP18440 114

RP18440BUP9785 118

RP184401

RP43803

124RP18440 126

RP18440 128RP184

129RP18

125RP18440

123RP18440

1RP18454

117RP18440

115RP18440

1RP18453

2RP18453

3RP18453

BUP3184

2RP44921

1RP44921

2RP46458

1RP46458

2RP18454

2RP43803

SP130922

56SP139895

57SP1398

SP140927

5RP41609 7

RP41609 165RP18440 166

RP18440 167RP18440 168

RP18440 169RP18440 1

RP427032

RP42703 3RP42703

4RP42703

173RP184

1RP819

2RP819

52RP184

53RP1841

55RP18436

56RP18436

57RP18436

59RP18435

60RP18435

34RP18426

3RP18

36RP18

37RP184

38RP1842

39RP18426

2RP69839

1RP69839

30RP18426

29RP18426

28RP18426

27RP18426

26RP18426

25RP18426

2RP18432

1RP18432

23RP18426

1RP41609

2RP41609

3RP41609

8RP213413

0GTP4026

1GTP4026

2GTP4026

1RP901889

2RP901889

1315N25366

10RP40155

11RP40155

BUP11790

2RP18427

1RP18427

13RP18435

14RP18435

15RP18435

16RP18435

17RP18435

BUP103573

20RP18419

BUP5844

BUP8864

3RP49690

2RP49690

BUP3896

1RP155037

7RP18435

8RP18435

9RP18435

10RP18435

1RP144315

1RP40589

2RP40589

3RP40589

6RP18426

7RP18426

8RP40155

9RP40155

SP120352

97RP909217

98RP909217

99RP909217

4SP122768 5

RP18428

2RP18431

1RP18431

2RP18430

1RP18430

36RP18435

35RP18435

31RP18435

30RP18435

30RP18419

29RP18419

28RP18419

27RP18419

180RP18577

179RP18577

178RP18577

177RP18577

176RP18577

175RP18577

17RP18

11RP18

110RP1857

RP18577

108RP18577

107RP18577

106RP18577

105RP18577

104RP18577

103RP18577

102RP18577

101RP18577

46RP18419

45RP18419

44RP18419

43RP18419

43RP18435

42RP18435

41RP18435

40RP18435

39RP18435

38RP18435

37RP18435

18RP18426

19RP18426

20RP18426

17RP18426

5RP73728

4RP73728

6RP73728

32SL11782

1RP858860

2RP858860

1RP910001 2

RP910001

25SP110138

26SP110138

118969

3P18969

5P18969

125P18960

128RP18960

8RP18968

1RP57012

104RP18960

103RP18960

102RP18960

101RP18960

100RP18960

99RP18960

98RP18960

97RP18960

1RP18977

2RP18977

3RP18975

1RP18968

BUP2276

BUP2136

78RP18960

4RP57012

1RP133918

34RP18960

33RP18960

32RP18960

31RP18960

24RP172239

19RP80001

18RP80001

1RP18479

1RP86312

2RP18462

3RP18440

4RP18440

2RP55560

1RP161389

3RP55560

BUP4391

7RP184403

RP18462

1RP49394

8RP223902

7RP223902

BUP13433

5RP57012

2RP49394

988SL3456

1118923

10P18923

9RP18923

8RP18923

7RP18923

3RP18944

4RP18944 1

RP985812

RP98581

1RP18946

2RP18946

4RP53518

5RP53518

6RP53518

2RP18944

2RP18945

1RP18945

2RP18943

1RP18943

2RP18923

1RP18947

4RP18923

5RP18923 2

RP18947

P2462

2P93453

UP4111

BUP5472

27RP18923

26RP18923

25RP18923

2RP42107

1RP42107

23RP18923

22RP18923

2118923

20P18923

19RP18923

2RP81154

1RP81154

17P18923

1818923

58P18923

1RP64907

2RP64907

3RP64907

4RP64907

5RP64907

6RP64907

7RP64907

SP126788

BUP6108

3RP190782

1RP47097

1RP57231

15RP18940 14

RP189403

RP18942 2RP18942

27RP80006

26RP80006

25RP80006

24RP80006 10

RP80006

23RP80006

BUP1169

22RP80006

21RP80006

20RP80006

19RP80006

18RP80006

17RP80006

4RP80006

1RP201631

8RP64907

16RP80006 2

RP80006

4RP826206

1RP900947

2RP900947

BUP104526

SP111905

1SP108557

21CP827249

RP1895230

RP1895231

RP1895232

RP1895233

RP1895234

RP1895235

RP1895236

RP18952

RP18952

40RP18952

5RP80000 1

RP80000

45RP18952

46RP18952

47RP18952

48RP18952

49RP18952

50RP18952

55RP18952

56RP18952

60RP18952

61RP18952

59RP18952

58RP18952

57RP44503

15RP19865

14RP198652

70812

557882

419863

5RP54294

6RP54294

7RP54294

4P57882

BUP11810

80CP816128

BUP103440

11RP54294

SP146218

38RP19852

2P53109

45RP18923

44RP18923

52RP18923 53

RP18923

38RP18923

39RP18923

41RP54701

46RP57324

47RP57324

48RP18923

49RP18923

2RP43079

1RP43079

947B3823

43RP54701

55RP18923

56RP18923

40RP18923

37RP18923

57RP18923

GRANTSON STREET

LEGEYT STREET

BOWEN STREET

LEGEYT STREE

CONSTITUTION ROAD

HARRIS STREET

ROSPECT ROAD

ON ROAD

HOOKER STREET

FA

IRLE

IGH

ST

RE

ET

RO

SE

MO

UN

TT

ER

RA

CE

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

TE

RR

AC

E

WY

CH

ER

OA

D

GRAFTONSTREET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

GRAFTON STREET

GRAFTON STREET

BO

NY

TH

ON

ST

RE

ET

TU

RN

ER

ST

RE

ET

SOMERSET STREET

HARRIS STREET

BO

NY

TH

ON

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

HO

OKER

STREET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

BR

OW

NS

TR

EE

T

FAIRLEIGH STREET

CONSTITUTION ROAD

HO

OK

ER

ST

RE

ET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

HADFIELD STREETHADFIELD S

GRAFTON STREET

HO

OK

ER

ST

RE

ET

Legend

Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

Other Manufacturing

Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services

Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants

Services to Transport

Communication

Finance

Insurance

Services to Finance and Insurace

Propoerty Services

Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Health Services

Community Services

Libraries Museums and the Arts

Sports and Recreation

Personal Serrvices

Other Serrvices

Mixed Use

Vacant Sop Land Lot

Parking

Residential

P:\WP\9991\51MI-Economics Project Plan\Corridor Assessment\MapInfo\Aiport_SH3.WOR By: RAG 29/06/06 Version 1

0 100 (m)

SCALE 1 : 2000 on A3

SH 3 of 10

AIRPOT LINKEIS - EXISTING ECONOMIC

ENVIRONMENT

12RP18120

RP18577

119RP18577

1315N25366

882SL8070

882SL8070

1189SL7919

3RP49690

2RP49690

BUP3896

20RP18577

4RP79551

5RP79551 100

RP1857799

RP18577BUP5515 96

RP1857795

RP18577

1RP115724

30RP18577

29RP18577

27RP203247

BUP2972

24RP18577

23RP18577

BUP8037

5RP414074

RP414073

RP189832

RP189831

RP18982

1RP18577

2RP18577

3RP18577

4RP18577

5RP18577

BUP8806

2RP227418 1

RP227418

1RP826019

BUP52BUP13028

10SP122705

2RP19084

1RP19084

2RP55659

1RP55659

1RP19082

2RP19082

1RP19083

2RP19083

4RP19082

5RP19082

6RP19082

118RP19078

119RP19078

120RP19078 121

RP19078SP159885 124

RP19078125

RP19078 BUP4499

5RP19051

6RP19051

1RP19054

1RP19055

6RP45105

5RP45105

2RP80519

2RP19058

3RP19058

BUP21351

RP125259 58RP12432

12RP19

11RP19064

10RP19064

BUP398

BUP65

BUP74

BUP5

1RP19058

1RP80519

1RP97009

2RP45105

3RP45105

1RP19053

1RP19056

2RP19054

14RP19051

13RP19051

2RP77262

1RP77262

BUP1508

1RP65767

1RP137679

4RP19051

3RP19051

2RP19051

1RP19051

132RP19078

133RP19078

134RP19078

135RP19078

136RP19078

2RP97009

0GTP4280

1GTP4280

2GTP4280

3GTP4280

0GTP2293

1GTP2293

2GTP2293

3GTP2293

4GTP2293

5GTP2293

1GTP100744

2GTP100744

3GTP100744

4GTP1007440

GTP100744

1SP105067

2SP105067

713B3832

75SL472

1RP67089

2RP67089 3

RP67089 9RP19078

1RP80489 2

RP8048913

RP1907814

RP1907815

RP1907816

RP1907817

RP190782

RP19079 1RP19079

21RP19078

22RP19078

4RP19079

3RP19079

28RP19078

29RP19078

30RP19078

31RP19078

32RP19078

33RP19078

BUP2409

1RP125507

7RP19078

6RP19078

5RP19078

4RP19078

45RP19078

46RP19078

47RP19078

48RP19078

49RP19078

50RP19078

51RP19078

52RP19078

143RP19078

142RP19078

54RP19078

55RP19078

56RP19078

57RP19078

58RP19078

59RP19078

60RP19078

61RP19078

62RP19078

63RP19078

64RP19078

65RP19078

66RP19078

67RP19078

2RP19081

1RP19081

69RP19078

70RP19078

71RP19078

72RP19078

73RP19078

74RP19078

2RP19080

1RP90876

41RP19078

40RP19078

84RP19078

85RP19078

86RP19078

87RP19078

88RP19078

89RP19078 1

RP14160092

RP1907893

RP1907894

RP1907895

RP1907896

RP19078

97RP19078

98RP19078

99RP19078

100RP19078

101RP19078

102RP19078

103RP19078

104RP19078

105RP19078

106RP19078

107RP19078

108RP19078

109RP19078

110RP19078

144RP19078

145RP19078

1RP93778

79RP19078

BUP6406

80RP19078

83RP53894

714SL838981

1229SL838981

11SP128584

10SP128584

1SP152989

3RP83094

2RP86282

15RP19106

2RP54954

1RP54954

2RP43367

1RP43367

20RP19102

19RP19102

BUP45BUP37

16RP19102

4RP19106

6SL4545

1RP19110

BUP61911

RP191092

RP1910930

RP1910929

RP19102 9RP19106

10RP19106

13RP19106

14RP19106

1RP83094 2

RP83

46RP151612

BUP100369SP121718

1RP42892

44RP19102

43RP19102

9RP19111

4RP63156

1RP123700

1RP19112

3RP19111

2RP19111

1RP19111

1RP63743

3RP63743

1RP93480

BUP12867

RP190778

RP19077BUP1079

17RP19077

23RP19057

24RP19057

25RP1905

74RP19

1RP19107

BUP13498SP106758

23RP19077

BUP2738

BUP176

19SP145013

20SP145013

SP147291

2RP189

1RP18984

38RP18577

37RP18577

36RP18577

35RP18577

34RP18577

89RP18577

88RP18577

87RP18577

86RP18577

85RP18577

84RP18577

83RP1857782

RP819

180RP18577

179RP18577

178RP18577

177RP18577

176175

117RP18577

116RP18577

115RP18577

114RP18577

113RP18577

112RP18577

111RP18577

110RP18577

109RP18577

108RP18577

107RP18577

106RP18577

105RP18577

104RP18577

103RP18577

102RP18577

101RP18577

4RP737286

RP73728

3RP44787

5RP19340

4RP19340

3RP19340

2RP19340

1RP19340

1RP44918

2RP44918

3RP44918

1RP177011

2RP18952

1RP18952

5RP18952

6RP18952

7RP18952

8RP18952

9RP18952

BUP3079

1RP188136

5RP51083

451083

26P18952

27RP18952

28RP18952

29RP18952

30RP18952

31RP18952

32RP18952

33RP18952

34RP18952

35RP18952

36RP18952

1RP54320 2

RP54320

39RP18952

40RP1895245

RP18952

46RP18952

47RP18952

48RP18952

49RP18952

50RP18952

5518952

6RP51083

4RP809951

BUP103440 SP146218

1RP19291

33RP19295

34RP46231 36

RP46231 4RP94006

3RP94006

2RP94006

36RP19292 34

RP19292

32RP19294

31RP19294

28RP19292

27RP19292

26RP19292

25RP19292

23RP19292

24RP19292

40RP19292

39RP19292

38RP19292

37RP19292

2RP80292

1RP80292

47RP46193

46RP46193

45RP43919

44RP43919

43P43919

79292

8P19292

9RP19292

10RP19292 12

RP1929213

RP1929214

RP19292 16RP19292

17RP19292

18RP19292

19RP19292

1RP53797

3RP51266

1RP51266

1RP58042

2RP58042

3RP58042

4RP58042

2RP51266

2RP205772

1RP205772

2RP19291

2619295

27RP19295

28RP19295

P3165

SP136577

5SP148412 6

SP148412

12RP19301

3P19330

4RP19330 20

RP193101

RP193112

RP1931118

RP19310SP138909

15RP19310

14RP19310

BUP876

11RP19310

10RP19310

9RP19310

8RP19310

7RP19310

6RP19310

5RP19310

1RP97924

3RP19304

5RP19301

6RP19301

2RP48341

1RP48341

19RP19301

1RP19303

4RP19302

3RP19302

2RP19302

1RP19302

11RP19301

2RP45704

1RP45704

1RP19337

2P19337

10RP19286

1RP19299 1

RP19300

6P46297

0GTP3742

0GTP3742

0GTP3742

0GTP3742

0GTP3742

1GTP3742

2GTP3742

3GTP3742

0GTP3742

0GTP36271

GTP3627 2GTP3627

3GTP3627

4GTP3627

100SP147648

12RP80005

13RP80005

SP131812

5RP80005

6RP80005

7RP80005

8RP80005

9RP80005

19RP80005

2RP19313

1RP19313

3RP19312

2RP19312

1RP19312

4RP19312

5RP19312

6RP19312

7RP19312

8RP19312

9RP19312

10RP19312

11RP19312

5RP48665

4RP48665

6RP64473

5RP64473

4RP64473

3RP64473

2RP64473 23

RP1931622

RP1931621

RP19316 20RP19316

19RP19316

18RP19316

17RP19316

16RP19316

15RP19316

14RP19316 13

RP1931612

RP1931611

RP19316 1RP115203

16RP80005

17RP80005

18RP80005

12RP219760

5RP49559

1BUP13662

2BUP13662

0BUP13662

0BUP13662

1RP49559

871388

9P71388 2

RP71388 1RP71388

3RP71388

29RP64390

13P71388

14RP71388

BOWSER STREET

BESS STREET

MAYGAR STREET

STONELEIGH STREET

TR

UR

OS

TR

EE

T

ADA STREET

ALBION ROAD

TO

BR

UK

ST

RE

ET

THONDLEY STREET

RO

BLA

NE

ST

RE

ET

SA

LT

ST

RE

ET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LUTW

YC

HE

RO

AD

PA

LM

ER

ST

RE

ET

HAWKINS STREET

MAYGAR STREET

FULLER STREET

TR

UR

OS

TR

EE

T

HIGH STREET

RO

BLA

NE

ST

RE

ET

PE

TE

RS

TR

EE

T

BLACKMORE STREET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

TR

UR

OS

TR

EE

T

FOSBERY STREET

BO

NY

TH

ON

ST

RE

ET

ALBION ROAD

MC

KE

NZ

IES

TR

EE

T

MAYGAR STREET

GO

OD

AC

RE

ST

RE

ET

ANNIE STREET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

THORNE STREET

FLOW

ERSTREETPALMER STREET

FL

OW

ER

ST

RE

ET

BLACKMORE STREET

PARSONS STREET

FLO

WE

R S

TR

EE

T

ALBION ROAD

ALBION ROAD

FOSBERY STREET

ALBION ROAD

SA

LT

ST

RE

ET

MARTHA STREET

MAYGAR STREET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

FLAHERTY STREET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LUTWYCHE ROAD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

ALBION ROAD

LUTW

YCHE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

ALBION ROAD

ALB

ION

RO

AD

TR

UR

OS

TR

EE

T

Legend

Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

Other Manufacturing

Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services

Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants

Services to Transport

Communication

Finance

Insurance

Services to Finance and Insurace

Propoerty Services

Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Health Services

Community Services

Libraries Museums and the Arts

Sports and Recreation

Personal Serrvices

Other Serrvices

Mixed Use

Vacant Sop Land Lot

Parking

Residential

P:\WP\9991\51MI-Economics Project Plan\Corridor Assessment\MapInfo\Aiport_SH4.WOR By: RAG 29/06/06 Version 1

0 100 (m)

SCALE 1 : 2000 on A3

SH 4 of 10

AIRPOT LINKEIS - EXISTING ECONOMIC

ENVIRONMENT

14

15RP19115

3RP83094

1

15RP19106

2RP54954

1RP54954

2RP43367

1RP43367

20RP19102

19RP19102

BUP45BUP37

16RP19102

1RP19106

2RP19106

3RP19106

4RP19106

6SL4545

BUP6191 1 2

1RP19107

1RP19102

2RP19105

3RP19105

BUP11776

1RP73889

2RP73889

7RP19102

8RP19102

9RP19102

5RP19103

3RP62364

2RP62364

1RP19103

32RP19100

33RP78855

34RP78855

31RP19100

30RP19100

29RP19100

28RP19100

27RP19100 4

RP401883

RP40188

BUP1834

21RP191001

RP43062 1RP130804

18RP19100

2RP19101

1RP19101

4RP19116

BUP11052

14RP19116

1RP110187

18RP19116

19RP19116

20RP19116

21RP1911

22RP191

23RP191

24RP19

25RP19

26RP19

8RP19

4RP62364

BUP13833

5RP842880

BUP12653

BUP13162

10RP862851

35RP19100

82RP19116

41RP19344

42RP19344

43RP19344

44RP19344

45RP19344

76RP19344

75RP19344

74RP19344

73RP19344 72

RP5997070

RP59970 69RP19344

68RP19344

67RP19344

66RP19344

65RP19344

64RP19344

63RP19344

62RP19344

61RP19344

1RP130856

58RP19344

57RP19344

56RP19344

BUP3243

2RP138118

BUP4223

6RP19345

40RP19344

39RP19344

38RP19344

BUP3236SP111479 33

RP93713 32RP150946

30RP19344

29RP19344

28RP19344

27RP19344

26RP19344

25RP19344

24RP19344

23RP19344

22RP19344

3RP19347

2RP19347

1RP19347

BUP6175

1RP128764

2RP19346

1RP19346

1RP110648

9RP19344

9RP19093

10RP19093

3RP19100

2RP86270

1RP139286

1RP106057

2RP19345

3RP19345

1RP109133

5RP19345

1RP171954

82RP19356

81RP19356

80RP19352

79RP19352

78RP19355

76RP19355

75RP19355

12RP19335

13RP19335

14RP19335

4RP44843

2RP44843 4

RP19331

8RP19326

9RP19326

10RP19326 11

RP19326

14RP81443

17RP81443

18RP81443

19RP81443

2RP95724

BUP7031

10RP19335

11RP19335

1RP19354

2RP19354

3RP19354

1RP171938

1RP169183

4RP127716

3RP127716

2RP171954

1RP197757

6RP19331

1RP95724

2RP206608

1RP206608

118RP19344

SP147067

1RP19

1RP193

1RP1936

2RP19

2RP4329

1RP43297

1RP64473

2RP48665 1

RP193162

RP193163

RP193167

RP193168

RP19316 9RP19316 11

RP80005

12RP80005

13RP80005

SP131812

3RP64473

2RP64473

23RP19316

22RP19316 21

RP1931620

RP1931619

RP1931618

RP19316

17RP19316

16RP19316

15RP19316

14RP19316

13RP19316

12RP19316

11RP19316

1RP115203

8RP56362

5

1SP132501 2

SP132501

1SP152973

2SP152973

189306

19P19306

1RP58897

2RP64762 2

RP193261

RP19326 7RP19325

6RP19325 5

RP19325 1RP82497 2

RP82497

1RP175916

4RP63826

2RP63826

1RP63826

8RP19321

7RP19321

6RP19321

6RP19322

3RP45661

2RP45661

1RP45661

10P55884

3RP71388

1RP64762

9RP19306 8

RP193067

RP193066

RP193065

RP19306

4RP58897

21RP896838

SP107906

5RP19326 7

RP19326

3RP44843

1RP44843

15RP19335

16RP19335

17RP19335

1RP92078

1RP99610

1RP747071

RP19305

1RP69091

5RP56537

BUP12219

5RP19359

4RP19359

3RP19359

1RP19360

2RP19360

3RP19360

2RP56537

2RP58897

19RP19335

1RP196240

18RP19335

20RP19335

1RP19334

1RP19332

3RP58897

2RP19334

2RP74707

1312CP841321

1313CP841321

20RP903395

UP106353

SP119457

625062

7P25062

8RP25062

4RP171903

BUP75115RP171903

1RP169226

2RP16922627

RP25058

1RP142607

2RP142607

9RP25058

525058

6P25058

1RP56540

10RP25059

12RP25059

26RP25058

25RP25058

443746

24RP25058

21P25058

3P43746

1325059

3RP142607

2RP188340

3RP188340

1RP188289

2RP188289

3RP188289

1RP188340

0UP13172

0P13172

113172

1RP19352

1RP56537

168RP19352

187RP19352

169RP19352

170RP19352

2RP171945

184RP19352

183RP19352

180RP19352

179RP19352

176RP19352

175RP19352

174RP19352

173RP19352

1RP171945

BUP11667

BUP11557

BUP101340

102RP19344

101RP52717

99RP52717

98RP19344

97RP19344

96RP193

1RP19

95RP1934

94RP19344

93RP19344

92RP19344

91RP19344

7RP19349

6RP19349

5RP19349

4RP193493

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2RP19349

1RP19349

81RP19344

82RP19344

BUP2600

BUP11203

117RP193

113RP19344

112RP19344

111RP19344

105RP19344

2RP19351

1RP19351

2RP5508

1RP55084

11RP89243

BUP104

BUP104015

SP106744

1RP194664

SP111539

3SP111539

4RP193

1RP41401

160RP19352

161RP43922

163RP43922

159RP19352

BUP3622

BUP5654

136RP19352

137RP19352

138RP19352

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114RP19352

1RP188877

119RP19352

120RP19352

125RP19352

126RP19352

127RP19352

128RP19352

BUP2419

2RP19357

1RP19357

BUP6275

BUP8048

BUP9579

BUP12633

BUP12831

133RP19352

190RP19352

134RP19352

135RP19352

150RP19352

151RP19352

191RP19352152

RP19352

0BUP1033850

BUP103385

1BUP103385

2BUP103385

3BUP103385

4BUP103385

BUP3050

51RP81440

52RP81440

2RP78982

3RP78982

83RP19352

84RP19352

BUP9803

89RP19352

90RP19352

101RP19352

BUP1419

62RP130186

BUP7332

112RP19352

30RP81441

1RP121068

2RP137962

1RP216978

BUP100906

1RP815775

1GTP102414

BUP106165

BUP36

5GTP105634

6GTP105634

7GTP105634

8GTP105634

9GTP105634

BUP2781

0GTP1024140

GTP102414

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LUTWYCHE ROAD

BRADSHAW STREET

LU

TW

YC

H

TO

BR

UK

ST

RE

ET

THISTLESTREET

BRADSHAW STREET

MCG

REG

OR

AVENUE

CHALLIS STREET

CHALK STREET

LA

MIN

GTO

NA

VE

NU

E

CHAPEL STREET

SWINBURNE STREET

THISTLE

STREET

LA

MIN

GTO

NA

VE

NU

E

FELIX STREET

EAST STREET

LA

UR

AS

TR

EE

T

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

SWINBURNE STREET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

LOWERSON STREET

LA

MIN

GT

ON

AV

EN

UE

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

D

MCG

REG

OR

AVENUE

CH

ELM

SFO

RD

AV

EN

UE

ESLEY STREET

THISTLE STREET

PIPER STREET

BRADSHAW STREET

CHALK STREET

BRADSHAW STREET

REID LANE

LUCAS

STR

EET

NORMAN STREET

WESLEY STREET

CHALK STREET

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

Legend

Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

Other Manufacturing

Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services

Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants

Services to Transport

Communication

Finance

Insurance

Services to Finance and Insurace

Propoerty Services

Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Health Services

Community Services

Libraries Museums and the Arts

Sports and Recreation

Personal Serrvices

Other Serrvices

Mixed Use

Vacant Sop Land Lot

Parking

Residential

P:\WP\9991\51MI-Economics Project Plan\Corridor Assessment\MapInfo\Aiport_SH5.WOR By: RAG 29/06/06 Version 1

0 100 (m)

SCALE 1 : 2000 on A3

SH 5 of 10

AIRPOT LINKEIS - EXISTING ECONOMIC

ENVIRONMENT

BUP4019113

RP19344

112RP19344

111RP19344

105RP19344

2RP19351

1RP19351

2RP55084

8RP19465 6

RP194655

RP194654

RP19465 3RP19465

2RP19465

1RP19465

51RP19387 1

RP1300052

RP13000543

RP1938742

RP1938741

RP19387403534

RP19383

33RP19383

32RP19383

31RP19383

30RP19383

29RP19383

1RP55084

16RP19465

7RP19465

3RP55084

BUP104348

0BUP119010

BUP119011

BUP11901

2BUP11901

3BUP11901

4BUP11901

5BUP11901

6BUP11901BUP104015

SP106744

1RP194664

SP111539

3SP111539

3SP139477

17RP19387

16RP19387

15RP19387

14RP19387

13RP19387

12RP19387

11RP19387

10RP19387

9RP19387

8RP19387

7RP19387

6RP19387

5RP19387

4RP19387

1RP41401

2RP19387

3RP19387

1287SL6752

16RP19452

15RP19452

2RP50858

1RP50858

3RP50858

4RP50858

1RP19462

8RP19462

5RP19462

1RP19457

2RP19457

4RP19456

5RP19456

1RP19455

SP133081

3RP19455

2RP56425

1RP56425

5RP56425

2RP43858

30RP19387

31RP19387

29RP19387

28RP19387

27RP19387

26RP19387

2RP56841

1RP56841

22RP19387

21RP19387

20RP19387

19RP19387

18RP19387

4RP56425 3

RP56425

6RP19456

7RP19462

9RP19461

6RP19461

2RP19462

3RP19462

4RP19462

2RP58128

1RP58128

1RP108676

5SL4967

55RP19

56RP194

19RP19496

3RP1949

2RP78983

14RP19490

15RP19490

13RP19490

2RP55532

1RP55532

11RP19490

10RP19490

9RP19

5RP53784

1RP78983

BUP12144

959SL9515

1182SL9293

1250SL9293

SL9515

6RP54854

7RP54854

8RP54854

5RP54854

1RP99906

4RP19474

3RP19474

2RP19474

1SL4913

680SL5223

2RP99906

26RP841249

25RP841248

3RP54854

4RP54854

7RP19474

8RP19474

9RP19474

10RP19474

3RP811609

31RP841304

30RP841304

1RP864038

5RP892857

11SP153219

12SP153219

14P19352

15RP19352

16RP19352

17RP19352

18RP19352

19RP19352

20RP19352

21RP19352

22RP19352

23RP19352

24RP19352

25RP19352

26RP19352

27RP19352

5RP19467

6RP19467

7RP19467

8RP19467

1RP19468 2

RP19468

12RP19467

2RP19472

13RP19470 12

RP1947011

RP1947010

RP19470

BUP5502 5RP19470

4RP19470

2RP19471

19RP54854

18RP54854

17RP54854

16RP54854

15RP54854

14RP54854

13RP54854

12RP54854

11RP54854

10RP54854

9RP54854

1RP40159

3RP19471

1RP196279

3RP227049

1254SL12875

8RP901236

9RP901236

1RP88642

BUP13533

BUP11130

145P19352

146RP19352 113

RP19352

114RP19352

1RP188877

119RP19352

120RP19352

P12633

UP12831

101RP19352

BUP1419

62RP130186

BUP7332

112RP19352

30RP81441

1RP121068

1RP216978

BUP100906

1

BUP106165

BUP2781

7RP169212

8RP169212

9RP169212

10RP169212

245P25041

1RP223888

2RP223888

1RP151379

3RP169160

7RP89891

8RP89891

1RP91625

10RP89891

11RP89891

12RP89891 51

RP89892

52RP25044

1RP169158

783SL9797

2RP169158

2RP158780

768SL94663

RP53919

5RP169159

4RP169157

6RP169160SP118197

4RP25044

5P25044

2112696

1RP106709

2RP106709

3RP25044

12RP25051

6RP25051

5RP25051

4RP25051

3RP25051

2RP25051

1RP25051

7RP25051

8RP25051

BUP5758

1RP89891

2RP89891

3RP89891 4

RP89891

5RP89891

6RP89891

15RP25051

14RP25051

737SL7454

BUP2970

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

EVELEIGH STREET

EAVEN

UE

NORMAN AVENUE

LA

MIN

GTO

NA

VE

NU

E

COLTON AVENUE

PARKRO

AD

KENT

RO

A

KE

DR

ON

PA

RK

RO

AD

WINDSOR AVENUE

COLTON AVENUE

NORMAN AVENUE

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

NORMAN STREET

KEDRON PARK ROAD

SUEZ

STREET

PARK

TERRACE

GYM

PIE

RO

AD

GYM

PIE

RO

AD

LUTW

YCHE

RO

AD

GYM

PIE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

LU

TW

YC

HE

RO

AD

COLTON AVENUE

PE

RR

YS

TR

EE

T

KEDRONPARK

ROAD

LUTW

YCHE

RO

AD

LUTW

YCHE

RO

AD

LUTW

YCHE

RO

AD

GYM

PIE

RO

AD

Legend

Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

Other Manufacturing

Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services

Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants

Services to Transport

Communication

Finance

Insurance

Services to Finance and Insurace

Propoerty Services

Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Health Services

Community Services

Libraries Museums and the Arts

Sports and Recreation

Personal Serrvices

Other Serrvices

Mixed Use

Vacant Sop Land Lot

Parking

Residential

P:\WP\9991\51MI-Economics Project Plan\Corridor Assessment\MapInfo\Aiport_SH6.WOR By: RAG 29/06/06 Version 1

0 100 (m)

SCALE 1 : 2000 on A3

SH 6 of 10

AIRPOT LINKEIS - EXISTING ECONOMIC

ENVIRONMENT

2RP51834

4RP55687

6RP54798

2

1RP48933

2RP68864

1RP86095

3RP86095

2RP86095

1RP34167

1RP98852

2RP98852

1RP44367

630SL7896

1RP55544

4RP81343

27RP34150 2

RP341701

RP34170 35RP34150 38

RP34150

7RP34212 4

RP34211 5RP34211

2

7RP158012

1RP40133

BUP8928

BUP1615

1RP69313

BUP6022

1RP53062

2RP53062

1RP60985

1RP54710

BUP596

5RP54710

3RP54710

1RP59086 2

RP590861

RP540282

RP54028BUP489 2

RP71905

BUP212

3RP76437

1RP76437

2RP76437

2RP77414

2RP43912

1RP43912

3RP34174

2RP64673

1RP646738

RP54710

7RP54710

6RP54710

2RP34166

1RP34166

3RP44359

BUP1662

BUP2336

1RP42402

2RP42402

4RP34174

2RP34173

1RP34174 2

RP34174

0GTP1100

1GTP1100

2GTP1100

3GTP1100

4GTP1100

5GTP1100

6GTP1100

0GTP967

1GTP967

2GTP967

3GTP967

1RP907938

2RP907938

4RP907938

BUP1391

2RP80906BUP6572 1

RP34182

1RP34183

3RP34183

2RP34184

1RP34184

1RP55883

2RP55883

BUP5398

2RP54037

8RP34156

7RP34156

6RP34156

5RP34156

4RP34156

3RP34156

1RP34158

4RP34158

2RP34183

1RP216390

11RP802741

2RP34155

0BUP11271

0BUP11271

1BUP112712

BUP112713

BUP112714

BUP11271

5BUP11271

6BUP11271 1

BUP113202

BUP11320

3BUP11320

4BUP11320

5BUP11320

6BUP11320

7BUP11320

8BUP11320 9

BUP11320

10BUP1132011BUP11320

0BUP11320

0BUP11320

BUP13318

1RP167630

2RP216390

3RP82783

25SP126841

27SP126842

26SP126842

29SP126843

31SP122222

28SP145674

0SP1572861

SP1572862

SP157286

3SP157286

4SP1572865

SP157286

7RP850

1RP34198

2RP85405

1RP854052

RP34201

6RP85097

7RP34217

6RP34217

15RP34217

13RP34217

12RP34217

2RP94257

1RP94257

14RP34217

8RP895310 9

RP895310

BUP104127

32SP122223

11SP122228

11SP158065

1RP57113

3RP57113 2

RP34203 3RP34203

4RP41

4RP34

3RP34202

2RP34202

1RP125958

2RP48393 3

RP48393

1RP5456

43RP34186

3RP104658

1RP104658

2RP104658

4RP58374

3RP58374

1RP58374

42RP34186

1RP58373

2RP57113

0GTP2485

1GTP2485

2GTP2485

3GTP2485

2GTP2485

3GTP2485

BUP2864

10SP117791

11SP117791

2SP157459

1SP157459

1RP80408

2RP80408

3RP80408

4RP80408

5RP80408

21RP80408

6RP80

22RP80408

7RP804

1RP846

71SP122224

41RP33811

42RP33811

43RP33811

44RP33811

11RP33833

12RP33833

1RP33835

2RP33835

3RP33835

1RP73673 2

RP73673

BUP463

2RP33833

1RP33833

24RP33811

23RP33811

BUP101923

64RP33811

65RP33811

66RP33811

67RP33811

68RP33811

34RP33833

35RP33833

36RP33833

40RP33833

41RP33833

42RP33833

43RP33833

44RP33833

1RP82684

2RP826

3RP82684

2RP338381

RP517952

RP5179532RP33833

1RP40889

2RP40889

29RP33833

28RP33833

27RP33833

2RP52510

1RP52510

23RP33833

22RP33833

21RP33833

4RP58014

3RP58014

2RP58014

1RP58014

63RP33811

7RP33835

6RP33835

5RP33835

62RP58014

4RP33835

237RP33833

122RP225065 123

RP225065

1SP137039

18SP137039

17SP137039

4SP137039

3SP137039

1SP159099

2SP159099

4RP3383

62RP33833

61RP33833

60RP33833

59RP33833

58RP33833

57RP33833

56RP33833

55RP33833

54RP33833

241RP33833240

RP33833

52RP33833

51RP33833

50RP33833

242RP33833

49RP33833

74RP33811

73RP33811

72RP33811

71RP338111

RP53929

4RP65851

2RP65851

3RP65851

1RP33825

2RP60033

1RP60033

RP33824121

RP33824120

RP3382480

RP3383481

RP3383482

RP3383483

RP33834172

RP33833

171RP33833

170RP33833

169RP33833

119RP33824

108RP33824

67RP33833

68RP33833

69RP33833

70RP33833

71RP33833

72RP33833

73RP33833

74RP33833

75RP33833

76RP33833

77RP33833

78RP33833

79RP33833

80RP338

8RP33

118RP33824

109RP33824

239RP33833

238RP33833

99RP33834

98RP33834

97RP33834

96RP33834

95RP33834

94RP33834

20SP156876 21

SP15687

24SP156876

1RP56397

2RP56397

1RP44113

2RP44113

16RP33811

15RP33811

14RP33811

13RP33811

12RP33811

11RP33811

10RP33811

9RP33811

8RP33811

7RP33811

6RP33811

5RP33811

25RP33811

1RP76757

2RP76757

27RP33811

28RP33811

29RP33811

30RP33811

31RP33811

32RP33811

33RP33811

34RP33811

35RP33811

2RP44602

1RP44602

101RP33811

100RP33811

99RP33811

98RP33811

97RP33811

96RP33811

95RP40004

1RP40004

2RP40004

93RP40004

92RP33811

91RP33811

105RP33811

4RP33811

3RP33811

2RP33811

1RP33811

2RP65018

1RP19511

2RP19511

3RP19511

4RP19511

5RP19511

6RP19511

8RP19511

2819511

29RP69381 31

RP6938132

RP1951133

RP1951134

RP1951135

RP1951136

RP19511

1RP65018

BUP274

48RP33811

47RP33811

46RP33811

45RP33811

104RP33811

48RP101254

46RP1012543

RP107398

1P107398

4RP107398

2RP107398

2RP94091

1RP94091

1RP65763

57RP19512

56RP19512

55RP19512

54RP19512

2RP74458

1RP74458

6RP19514

5RP19514

4RP19514

3RP19514

2RP19514

45RP19514

41RP19514 43

RP19514

52RP839318

53RP839318

54RP839318

51S151847

53RP19512

35RP33814

36RP33814

2RP33821

1RP33821

47RP33814

48RP33814

82RP33811

81RP33811

80RP33811

79RP33811

78RP33811

77RP33811

76RP33811

75RP33811

102RP33811

103RP33811

52RP33811

51RP33811

50RP33811

49RP33811

83RP33811

84RP33811

85RP33811

86RP33811

51RP33814

50RP33814

49RP33814

1RP33816

2RP33816

38RP33814

70RP19513

2RP43052

1RP43052

68RP19513

67RP19513

66RP19513

65RP19513

64RP19513

63RP19513

62RP19513

2RP106505

60RP33814

39RP33814

1RP106505

61RP33814

41RP33814

2RP814760

3RP814760 4

RP814760

5RP814760

1SP121243

2SP121243

BUP886

BUP102652

738RP19431

737RP19431

736P19431

735P19431

73419431

733RP19431

BUP652

730RP19431

729RP19431

728RP19431

727RP19431

726RP19431

725P19431

1103845

203845

38RP82231

39RP82231

40RP82231

41RP82231

42RP82231

30RP8090829

RP8090828RP80908

31RP80908

15SP122221

365RP19430

368RP19430

367RP19430

366RP19430

729430

3RP46472 4

RP46472

BO

NN

EY

AV

EN

UE

JUNCTION ROAD

AR

MA

GH

ST

RE

ET

SYDNEY STREET

SYDNEY STREET

ROSEBY AVENUE

BO

NN

EY

AV

EN

UE

JUNCTION ROAD

NORMAN PARADE

NORMAN PARADE

KE

ITH

ST

RE

ET

PA

RK

AV

EN

UE

JUNCTION ROAD

BO

NN

EY

AV

EN

UE

CO

OM

AS

TR

EE

T

JUNCTION ROAD

PA

RK

AV

EN

UE

ADAMSON STREET

ST

RE

ET

DICKSON STREET

MO

RR

ISO

NR

OA

D

AR

MA

GH

ST

RE

ET

R STREET

JIMBOUR STREET

PA

RK

AV

EN

UE

BO

NN

EY

AV

EN

UE

DICKSON STREET

ROSE STREET

WOOMBYE STREET

BO

NN

EY

AV

EN

UE

SYDNEY STREET

FIT

ZR

OY

ST

RE

ET

BRENTWOOD STREET

RAILWAY PARADE

JUNCTION ROAD

JA

CK

SO

NS

TR

EE

T

JAC

KSO

NSTR

EET

HOWIE STREET

KE

ITH

ST

RE

ET

Legend

Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

Other Manufacturing

Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services

Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants

Services to Transport

Communication

Finance

Insurance

Services to Finance and Insurace

Propoerty Services

Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Health Services

Community Services

Libraries Museums and the Arts

Sports and Recreation

Personal Serrvices

Other Serrvices

Mixed Use

Vacant Sop Land Lot

Parking

Residential

P:\WP\9991\51MI-Economics Project Plan\Corridor Assessment\MapInfo\Aiport_SH7.WOR By: RAG 29/06/06 Version 1

0 100 (m)

SCALE 1 : 2000 on A3

SH 7 of 10

AIRPOT LINKEIS - EXISTING ECONOMIC

ENVIRONMENT

29SP126843

10RP85097

9RP85097

8RP85097

7RP85097

1RP34198

2RP85405

1RP854052

RP34201

6RP85097

153421744217

1RP94648

SP100539

900SP100538

32SP122223

11SP122228

10SP158065

11SP158065

1RP57113

3RP57113

2RP34203

3RP34203 4

RP41055

2RP43398

1RP43398

4RP34202

3RP34202

2RP34202

1RP125958 2

RP48393 3RP48393

1RP56151 2

RP56151 3RP56151 1

RP57715 2RP57715

1RP54569

4RP54569

5RP54569

7RP34189

8RP34189

9RP34189

10RP34189

6RP34189

5RP34189

11RP34189

12RP34189

1RP34189

43RP34186

3RP104658

1P104658

2RP104658

4RP58374

3RP58374

3RP54569

2RP54569

1RP58374

42RP34186

BUP562

1RP58373

2RP57113

0GTP2485

1GTP2485

2GTP2485

3GTP2485

2GTP2485

3GTP2485

BUP2864

10SP117791

11SP117791

1SP153613

2SP153613

3SP153613

2SP157459

1SP157459

8RP62935

BUP69515

RP3418616

RP3418617

RP3418618

RP6944920

RP694491

RP44311 BUP5441

2SP109576

1RP34238

250RP34221

248RP34221

246RP34221

BUP1106

215RP34221

BUP9119

219RP34221

221RP34221

223RP34221

247RP34221

BUP58791

RP455962

RP45596BUP5503

1RP87955

3RP43255

5RP43255

208RP34221

2RP34233

1RP34233

206RP34221

205RP34221

3RP87955

1RP55650

2RP55650

BUP9075

BUP10537

BUP101868

BUP106007

BUP1757

BUP3441

2SP119997

20SP130674

21SP130674

SP154905

2SP141428

3SP141428

1SP162106

2RP34243

313RP34221

1RP43752

1RP77689

BUP7700

16RP56829

20RP56829

284RP34221

SP111931

BUP1915

291289

RP34221

287RP34221

285RP34221

283RP34221

281RP34221

389RP34221

BUP1237

BUP11019

21

GTP101255

277RP895194 BUP1360

1SP120754

SP120755

2SP129089

35RP84618

36RP84618

13RP34221

11RP34221

9RP34221

BUP9553

RP342214

RP34221

1RP96289 2

RP96289

14RP34221

16RP34221

17RP34221

3RP85443

34RP34221

32RP34221

30RP34221

28RP34221

26RP34221

BUP2485

2RP42361

1RP42361

1RP40158

BUP647

27RP34221

29RP34221

31RP34221

33RP34221

38RP34221

4RP85443

12RP97199

1RP97199

5RP806468

BUP102277

1GTP105258

2GTP105258

3GTP105258

4GTP105258 0

GTP105258

11SP122228

12SP122228

13SP122228

60SP129464

61SP129464

33RP84618

194RP34221

SP107775

31RP84618

BUP13258

SP149398

12SP122229

36RP34

2RP82296

1RP82296

BUP6923

2RP120062

1RP120062

42RP34221

43RP34221

48RP34221

49RP34221

50RP34221

51RP34221

3RP195391

2RP195391

1RP219869

5RP219872

2RP219870

44RP880881 47

RP880881

1GTP33292

GTP33293GTP33294

GTP33295GTP3329

6GTP3329

8GTP100839

9GTP100839

10GTP100839

11GTP100839

12GTP100839

13GTP100839

14GTP100839

15GTP100839

16GTP100839

17GTP100839

0GTP3329

6RP889666

SP112267

BUP210

44RP33864

40RP33864

39RP33864

38RP33864

35RP3386

34RP3386

33RP338

32RP33

31RP33864

30RP33864

29RP33864

28RP33864

24RP3386

23RP3386

26RP338

25RP33

23RP33

1RP21

43RP58694

41RP58694

36RP33864

37RP33864

3RP40569

4RP40569

BUP5346

BUP9967

81RP135278

80RP33864

BUP2120

BUP5808

75RP59544

BUP1591

BUP6768

68RP33864

67RP33864

52RP33862

1RP136045

1RP130629

47RP33862

46RP33862

45RP33862

44RP33862

BUP2959

27RP33862

28RP33862

29RP33862

30RP33862

31RP33862

32RP33862

BUP3612

65RP33864

1RP132201

58RP33864

57RP33864

56RP33864

55RP33864

BUP5408

1RP128918

45RP33864

2RP47721

1RP47721

85RP33864

BUP7709

3RP201963

BUP8431

89RP33864

BUP13806

0GTP2348

1GTP2348

2GTP2348

3GTP23484

GTP2348

5GTP2348

BUP104449

BUP2673

SP128234

14RP33852

9RP33852

10RP33852

13RP33852

1RP54991

2RP549912

RP407304

RP33852

1RP33849

5RP33849

6RP33849

7RP33849

8RP33849

9RP33849

10RP33849

61RP33849

60RP33849

12RP33849

13RP33849

14RP33849

15RP33849

16RP33849

17RP33849

18RP33849

19RP33849

1RP33850

BUP11435

BUP1550

36RP33849

35RP33849

4RP33849

59RP33849

58RP33849

2RP33849

2RP78978

1RP78978

40RP33849

39RP33849

45RP49287

47RP49287

48RP33849

49RP33849

50RP33849

62RP33849

53RP33849

54RP33849

55RP33849

1RP55940

2RP55940

BUP7078

BUP103264

BUP105315

1GTP106120

2GTP106120

3GTP106120

4GTP106120

5GTP106120

4GTP106120

0GTP106120

BUP2915

BUP13405

1SP104758

SP1153860

SP104758

8SP134905

9SP134905

1SP146455

2SP146455

11SP153611

12SP153611

1SP153598

2SP153598

16RP49792

15RP49792

14RP49792

13RP49792

12RP49792

31RP3385232

RP33852

33RP33852

34RP33852

35RP33852

36RP33852

37RP33852

38RP33852

39RP33852

40RP33852

41RP33852

42RP33852

43RP33852

44RP33852

17RP49792

9RP223820

1SP120389

2SP120389

1RP33866

0GTP100883

5GTP106668

6GTP106668

7GTP106668

11RP33842

7RP84686

10RP33842

9RP33841

8RP33841

7RP33841

6RP33841

5RP33841

4RP33841

1RP33844

2RP33844

4RP33855

3RP33855

2RP33855

1RP33855

15RP83916

13RP83916

12RP33855

11RP44471

9RP44471

1RP46742

2RP46742

2RP49792

3RP49792

4RP49792

5RP49792

6RP49792

7RP49792

8RP49792

16RP33856

2RP33856

1RP33856

18RP33856

1RP49792

1RP80408

2RP80408

3RP80408

4RP80408

5RP80408

21RP80408

6RP80408

22RP80408

7RP80408

8RP80408

9RP80408

10RP80408

11RP80408

23RP80408

12RP80408

13RP80408

14RP80408

15RP80408

16RP80408

17RP80408

18RP80408

19RP80408

20RP80408

21RP80409

22RP80409

23RP80409

24RP80409

40RP80409

25RP80409

26RP80409

27RP80409

28RP80409

41RP80409

29RP80409

RP80409 30RP80409

1RP84686

4RP84686

3RP84686

2RP84686

71SP1222241

P73673 2RP73673

40RP33833

41RP33833

42RP33833

43RP33833

44RP33833

1RP82684

2RP82684

3RP82684

2RP338381

RP517952RP51795

32RP33833

1RP40889

2RP40889

29RP33833

28RP33833

27P33833

2325065

18SP137039

17SP137039

4SP137039

3137039

1RP45958

1RP33839

2RP33839

3RP33839

4RP33839

62RP33833

61RP33833

60RP33833

59RP33833

58RP33833

57RP33833

56RP33833

55RP33833

54P33833

24133833

16933833

7133833

72RP33833

73RP33833

74RP33833

75RP33833

76RP33833

77RP33833

78RP33833

79RP33833

80RP33833

81RP33833

82RP33833

1SP158078

2SP158078

3SP158078

RP33834103

RP33834

102RP33834

1RP92253

2RP92253

1RP76640

97RP33833

96RP3383399

RP33834

98RP33834 20

SP156876

21SP156876

24SP156876

ALEXANDRA

RO

AD

JUNCTION ROAD

N PARADE

ALM

AR

O

JUNCTION ROAD

WO

LS

ELE

YS

TR

EE

T

ELL

IOT

TS

TR

EE

T

VIN

ESTR

EET

SANDGATEROAD

WO

LS

EL

EY

ST

RE

ET

SANDG

ATE

RO

AD

ALEXANDRA

RO

AD

RAILWAY PARADE

RAILWAY PARADE

SYDNEY STREET

JUNCTION ROAD

GA

RN

ET

ST

RE

ET

SANDGATE ROAD

LE STREET

BRENTWOOD STREET

JUNCTION ROAD

ES

TR

EE

T

WINIFRED STREET

DR

AN

ES

TR

EE

T

ST

UC

KE

YR

OA

D

MAXWELL STREET

ST

UC

KE

YR

OA

D

KEMBLE STREET

ALM

AR

OA

D

HO

CK

ING

SS

TR

EE

T

JUNCTION ROAD

RAILWAY PARADE

TH

OM

AS

ST

RE

ET

NCTION ROAD

JAC

KSO

NSTR

EET

JAC

KSO

NSTR

EET

KEDRON STREET

JAC

KSO

NSTR

EET

ELL

IOT

TS

TR

EE

T

ELLIO

TT

ST

RE

ET

ST

UC

KE

Y

ST

UC

KE

YR

OA

D

NELLIE STREET

CL

AR

KS

ON

ST

RE

ET

HOWIE STREET

JUNCTION ROAD

DR

AN

ES

TR

EE

T

THE AVENUE

Legend

Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

Other Manufacturing

Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services

Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants

Services to Transport

Communication

Finance

Insurance

Services to Finance and Insurace

Propoerty Services

Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Health Services

Community Services

Libraries Museums and the Arts

Sports and Recreation

Personal Serrvices

Other Serrvices

Mixed Use

Vacant Sop Land Lot

Parking

Residential

P:\WP\9991\51MI-Economics Project Plan\Corridor Assessment\MapInfo\Aiport_SH8.WOR By: RAG 29/06/06 Version 1

0 100 (m)

SCALE 1 : 2000 on A3

SH 8 of 10

AIRPOT LINKEIS - EXISTING ECONOMIC

ENVIRONMENT

1162106

35RP84618

36RP84618

1RP40158

BUP647

27RP34221

29RP34221

31RP34221

33P34221

38RP34221

4RP85443

5RP806468

102277

11SP122228

12SP122228

13SP122228

194SP149398 35

34RP34225

36RP34226

2RP82296

1RP82296

32RP34225

31RP34225

30RP34225

BUP2567

BUP791

BUP1111

18RP34225

19RP34225

20RP34225

BUP6923

2RP120062

1RP120062

42RP34221

43RP34221 48

RP3422149

RP3422150

RP34221

51RP34221

28RP34225

29RP34225

3RP195391

2RP195391

1RP219869

5RP219872

2RP219870

BUP11451

4RP806414

5RP806414

2RP806413

44RP880881

47RP880881

1GTP33292

GTP33293GTP33294

GTP33295GTP3329

6GTP3329

8GTP100839

9GTP100839

10GTP100839

11GTP100839

12GTP100839

13GTP100839

14GTP100839

15GTP100839

16GTP100839

17GTP100839

0GTP3329

6RP889666

SP112267

BUP2102

BUP6706

114RP33880

123RP33880

124RP33880

112RP33880

111RP33880

110RP33880

BUP12342

92RP808037

BUP10532

121RP33880

99RP33880

100RP33880

101

123RP34221

BUP13554

BUP2124

124RP34221

126RP34221

128RP34221

130RP34221

1RP52102

2RP44765

1RP44765

129RP34221

127RP34221

125RP34221

69RP56895

73

BUP1330

BUP12695

BUP101365

SP102447

BUP2097

SP102039

SP141880

3SP160744

4SP160744

85

84RP33880

83RP33880

82RP33880

81RP33880

80RP33880

79RP33880

78RP33880

77RP33880

76RP3388

BUP7

65RP338

66RP1335

68RP3388

69RP3388

70RP3388

11RP33870

12RP33870

13RP33870

14RP33870

15RP33870

16RP33870

1RP78360

2RP78360

BUP1890

67RP33870

68RP33870

BUP5081397

RP33870

71RP33870

72RP33870

73RP33870

74RP33870

3RP86867

1RP86867 2

RP86867

30RP33870

31RP33870

BUP4570BUP1090

BUP86938

RP338

BUP13538

BUP12739

BUP1173

BUP3775

2RP125003

2RP56794

1RP217573

1RP219733

1GTP1801

2GTP1801

3GTP1801

4GTP1801

5GTP1801

SP102027

0GTP1801

BUP1668

SP119395

SP125054

1RP53881

BUP4788

BUP1787

3RP33871

2RP33871

1RP33871

4RP33871

89RP33870

90RP33870

BUP4523 1RP171476

95RP33870

96RP33870

97RP33870

98RP33870

99RP33870

1RP73536

2RP73536

3RP73536

1RP33872

BUP9333

BUP1587

150RP41008

1RP1312462

RP53881

130RP6189

1RP63846

2RP63846

112RP33870

113RP33870

114RP3387

3RP53338

1RP33874

1RP68912

1RP53338

4RP96655

1RP96655

2RP96655

3RP96655

108RP33870

3RP53449

4RP53449

BUP6551

132RP61895

BUP8733

0BUP104531

0BUP1045311

BUP104531

2BUP104531

20SP120144

21SP120144

SP1048

211RP33870

212RP33870

213RP33870

BUP1711

216RP33870

217RP33870

2RP105641

1RP105641

2RP75094

1RP75094

BUP4539188

RP33870189

RP3387019

RP33

19RP33

180RP33870

221RP33870

222RP33870

BUP1293

1RP33873

225RP33870

230RP33870

231RP33870

232RP33870

233RP33870

234RP338703

RP461952

RP46195

1RP46195

1RP54741

2RP54741

3RP54741

4RP54741

5RP54741

SP153283BUP5791

172RP33870

173RP33870

174RP47845 176

RP47845BUP100663

BUP106566BUP2601

BUP1710

SP146165

26RP33

266RP33870

265RP33870

264RP33870

263RP33870

1RP60639

1RP66462

SP140922

292RP33870

291RP33870

303RP33870

304RP33870

307RP33870

308RP33870

309RP33870

1RP120360

4RP44022

3RP44022

BUP1817

1RP44022

245RP33870 248

RP33870395

RP33870253

RP33870254

RP33870

255RP33870

2RP53077

SP124379

1RP53077

BUP11058

BUP10942

BUP101253

BUP101614

BUP106376

BUP1065

240RP33870

SP106748

100SP111531

SP100637

SP136712

BUP4529

2RP103060

327RP211133

SP107620367

RP199736363

RP199736

36RP199

362RP211

314RP199734

319RP199734

320RP199734

25RP199734

BUP2514324

RP199734325

RP199734326

RP199734

BUP12284

10SP110562

44RP33864

40RP33864

39RP33864

38RP33864

35RP33864

34RP33864

33RP33864

32RP33864

31RP33864

30RP33864

29RP33864

28RP33864

24RP33864

23RP33864

26RP33862

25RP33862

24RP33862

23RP33862

22RP33862

21RP33862

20RP33862

BUP1292

17RP53008

16RP46848

2RP46848

1RP46848

14RP46848

1RP33861

2RP33861

3RP33861

4RP33861

3RP33863

2RP33863

1RP33863

9RP33862

10RP33862

11RP33862

12RP33862

13RP33862

22RP33864

6RP33865

5RP33865

4RP33865

17RP33864

16RP33864

15RP33864

14RP33864

13RP33864

1RP549592RP54959

9RP33864

8RP33864

7RP33864

6RP33864

1RP216397

43RP58694

41RP58694

10RP33864

11RP33864

36RP33864

37RP33864

3RP40569

4RP40569

BUP5346

BUP9967

81RP135278

80RP33864

BUP2120

BUP5808

75RP59544

BUP1591

BUP6768

68RP33864

67RP33864

52RP33862

1RP136045

1RP130629

47RP33862

46RP33862

45RP33862

44RP33862

BUP2959

27RP33862

28RP33862

29RP33862

30RP33862

31RP33862

32RP33862

BUP3612

65RP33864

1RP132201

58RP33864

57RP33864

56RP33864

55RP33864

BUP5408

1RP128918

45RP33864

2RP47721

1RP47721

85RP33864

BUP7709

3RP201963

BUP8431

89RP33864

BUP13806

0GTP2348

1GTP2348

2GTP2348

3GTP23484

GTP2348

5GTP2348

BUP104449

BUP2673

SP128234

14RP33852

9RP33852

10RP33852

13RP33852

1RP54991

2RP54991

2RP40730

4P33852

2RP78978

1P78978

45RP49287

47RP49287

48RP33849

493849

5033849

62P33849

53RP33849

5433849

55P33849

1RP55940

2RP55940

BUP2915

1SP104758

SP1153860

SP104758

8SP134905

9SP134905

1SP146455

2146455

11SP153611

12SP153611

1SP153598

2SP153598

17RP33852

18RP33852

19RP33852

2RP70961

1RP70961

21RP33852

1RP126082

26P33852

27P33852

2833852

2933852

303852

10RP80410

11P80410

3SP118041

2RP64038

BUP579

2RP42471

5RP33859

6RP33859

2RP59512

3RP33860

2RP33860

1RP33860

1RP33859

2RP33859

3RP33859

4RP33859

BUP1013253

RP33867

2RP33867

1RP33867

67RP33862

66RP33862

3RP33866

2RP33866

1RP33866

59RP62695

61RP62695

71RP33862

BUP10345

5RP803774

0GTP2643

1GTP2643

2GTP2643

3GTP2643

4GTP2643

5GTP2643

9GTP2643

1GTP100883

2GTP100883

3GTP100883

0GTP100883

5GTP106668

6GTP106668

7GTP106668

BUP3444

4SP110563

2SP110563

1SP110563

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WO

LS

EL

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UC

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LL

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TS

TR

EE

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ELLIO

TT

ST

RE

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SANDGATEROAD

WO

LS

EL

EY

ST

RE

ET

RAILWAY

PARADE

WONGARA STREET

NOBLE STREET

GELLIBRAND STREET

FR

AN

ZR

OA

D

ELIZA STREET

CTION ROAD

SA

ND

GA

TE

RO

AD

SA

ND

GA

TE

RO

AD

ST

UC

KE

YR

OA

D

MAXWELL STREET

ALM

AR

OA

D

FR

AN

ZR

OA

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WONGARA STREET

SA

ND

GA

TE

RO

AD

GELLIBRAND STREET

FR

AN

ZR

OA

D

FR

AN

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OA

D

JUNCTION ROAD

CH

ILD

SS

TR

EE

T

JUNCTION ROAD

KEDRON STREET

NOBLE STREET

WONGARA STREET

JUNCTION ROAD

JUNCTION ROAD

DE

NH

AM

ST

RE

ET

ST

UC

KE

YR

OA

D

ST

UC

KE

YR

OA

D

NELLIE STREET

SA

ND

GA

TE

EAST WEST ARTERIAL ROAD

FR

AN

ZR

OA

D

SA

ND

GA

TE

RO

AD

SA

ND

GA

TE

RO

AD

WEST ARTERIAL ROAD

ELIZA STREET

Legend

Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

Other Manufacturing

Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services

Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants

Services to Transport

Communication

Finance

Insurance

Services to Finance and Insurace

Propoerty Services

Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Health Services

Community Services

Libraries Museums and the Arts

Sports and Recreation

Personal Serrvices

Other Serrvices

Mixed Use

Vacant Sop Land Lot

Parking

Residential

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WONGARA STREET

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WONGARA STREET

PE

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SA

ND

GA

TE

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AD

SA

ND

GA

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SA

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GA

TE

RO

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SA

ND

GA

TE

RO

AD

ACCESS ROAD

SA

ND

GA

TE

RO

AD

EAST WEST ARTERIAL ROAD

Legend

Non Metallic MineralProduct Manufacturing

Other Manufacturing

Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling

Food Retailing

Personal and Household Good Retailing

Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services

Accommodation Cafes and Restaurants

Services to Transport

Communication

Finance

Insurance

Services to Finance and Insurace

Propoerty Services

Business Services

Government Administration

Education

Health Services

Community Services

Libraries Museums and the Arts

Sports and Recreation

Personal Serrvices

Other Serrvices

Mixed Use

Vacant Sop Land Lot

Parking

Residential

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APPENDIX B Traffic Modelling Inputs in CBA

AL EIS : Network Statistics for Economic Assessment

Network Statistics - Base Case (Model Run 501)

Light Vehicles

Time Period AM 2 hours (7 am - 9 pm) Business Hours (9 am - 4 pm) PM 2 hours (4 pm - 6 pm) Night Off Peak (6 pm - 7 am) 24 HoursModel Year 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026

VKT 8,146,090 8,701,455 9,533,120 10,134,971 21,092,260 22,918,553 25,502,299 27,303,534 8,818,009 9,466,953 10,470,926 11,172,978 14,061,507 15,279,035 17,001,533 18,202,356 52,117,867 56,365,996 62,507,879 66,813,840VHT 175,210 183,672 223,175 256,998 364,902 394,438 442,249 481,410 211,836 221,589 277,812 319,302 243,268 262,958 294,833 320,940 995,217 1,062,658 1,238,069 1,378,649

Average Speed 46.5 47.4 42.7 39.4 57.8 58.1 57.7 56.7 41.6 42.7 37.7 35.0 57.8 58.1 57.7 56.7 52.4 53.0 50.5 48.5

Heavy Vehicles

Time Period AM 2 hours (7 am - 9 pm) Business Hours (9 am - 4 pm) PM 2 hours (7 PM - 9 pm) Night Off Peak (6 pm - 7 am) 24 HoursModel Year 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026

VKT 700,136 754,497 814,321 857,341 1,531,336 1,653,914 1,783,625 1,875,936 383,930 412,814 447,143 471,487 1,020,891 1,102,609 1,189,083 1,250,624 3,636,293 3,923,833 4,234,172 4,455,389VHT 14,278 14,816 17,979 21,205 25,349 27,460 30,626 33,571 8,156 8,492 10,556 12,386 16,899 18,307 20,417 22,381 64,682 69,076 79,578 89,543

Average Speed 49.0 50.9 45.3 40.4 60.4 60.2 58.2 55.9 47.1 48.6 42.4 38.1 60.4 60.2 58.2 55.9 56.2 56.8 53.2 49.8

Total Vehicles

Time Period AM 2 hours (7 am - 9 pm) Business Hours (9 am - 4 pm) PM 2 hours (7 PM - 9 pm) Night Off Peak (6 pm - 7 am) 24 HoursModel Year 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026Model Run TC_2012_501 TC_2016_501 TC_2022_501 TC_2026_501 TC_2012_501 TC_2016_501 TC_2022_501 TC_2026_501 TC_2012_501 TC_2016_501 TC_2022_501 TC_2026_501 TC_2012_501 TC_2016_501 TC_2022_501 TC_2026_501 TC_2012_501 TC_2016_501 TC_2022_501 TC_2026_501

VKT 8,846,227 9,455,951 10,347,441 10,992,312 22,623,597 24,572,466 27,285,924 29,179,470 9,201,939 9,879,767 10,918,069 11,644,465 15,082,398 16,381,644 18,190,616 19,452,980 55,754,160 60,289,829 66,742,050 71,269,228VHT 189,488 198,488 241,154 278,203 390,251 421,898 472,875 514,981 219,992 230,082 288,368 331,688 260,168 281,265 315,250 343,321 1,059,899 1,131,733 1,317,647 1,468,192

Average Speed 46.7 47.6 42.9 39.5 58.0 58.2 57.7 56.7 41.8 42.9 37.9 35.1 58.0 58.2 57.7 56.7 52.6 53.3 50.7 48.5

NOTES1) Traffic Growth Rates post 2022 (Whole of Model Number of Vehicles) Light Vehicles 1.31% p.a. Heavy Vehicles 1.35% p.a.

(Based on Model Runs to 2026 for the latest ABS Medium Demographic Growth)2) Projection of model results indicates that traffic volumes on Airport Link do not reach capacity by 2042.3) No new information on vehicle fleet breakdown has been obtained.4) The 2003/04 SEQ Travel Survey remains the most recent suitable source of vehicle occupancy data.5) Current business case analysis uses an annualisation factor of 330, for both light and heavy vehicles.6) Daytime traffic has been taken as 60% of total off-peak traffic, based on count analysis for a selection of Brisbane locations.

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AL EIS : Network Statistics for Economic Assessment

Network Statistics - Airport Link Without Staged Busway (Project Option) (Mode Run 503)

Light Vehicles

Time Period AM 2 hours (7 am - 9 pm) Business Hours (9 am - 4 pm) PM 2 hours (4 pm - 6 pm) Night Off Peak (6 pm - 7 am) 24 HoursModel Year 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026

VKT 8,153,931 8,707,682 9,536,122 10,134,949 21,133,477 22,954,250 25,548,171 27,348,996 8,825,364 9,474,273 10,451,717 11,152,082 14,088,985 15,302,833 17,032,114 18,232,664 52,201,756 56,439,038 62,568,125 66,868,691VHT 172,527 180,051 217,165 250,360 362,437 391,828 439,274 478,772 204,909 213,388 262,752 302,063 241,624 261,219 292,849 319,181 981,497 1,046,487 1,212,041 1,350,376

Average Speed 47.3 48.4 43.9 40.5 58.3 58.6 58.2 57.1 43.1 44.4 39.8 36.9 58.3 58.6 58.2 57.1 53.2 53.9 51.6 49.5

Heavy Vehicles

Time Period AM 2 hours (7 am - 9 pm) Business Hours (9 am - 4 pm) PM 2 hours (7 PM - 9 pm) Night Off Peak (6 pm - 7 am) 24 HoursModel Year 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026

VKT 697,940 752,470 811,747 855,204 1,530,716 1,652,621 1,781,402 1,873,979 381,987 411,206 444,612 469,585 1,020,477 1,101,747 1,187,601 1,249,320 3,631,119 3,918,044 4,225,362 4,448,087VHT 14,087 14,581 17,515 20,714 25,247 27,276 30,365 33,355 7,916 8,198 10,021 11,814 16,832 18,184 20,244 22,237 64,081 68,239 78,145 88,120

Average Speed 49.5 51.6 46.3 41.3 60.6 60.6 58.7 56.2 48.3 50.2 44.4 39.7 60.6 60.6 58.7 56.2 56.7 57.4 54.1 50.5

Total Vehicles

Time Period AM 2 hours (7 am - 9 pm) Business Hours (9 am - 4 pm) PM 2 hours (7 PM - 9 pm) Night Off Peak (6 pm - 7 am) 24 HoursModel Year 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026 2012 2016 2022 2026Model Run TC_2012_503 TC_2016_503 TC_2022_503 TC_2026_503 TC_2012_503 TC_2016_503 TC_2022_503 TC_2026_503 TC_2012_503 TC_2016_503 TC_2022_503 TC_2026_503 TC_2012_503 TC_2016_503 TC_2022_503 TC_2026_503 TC_2012_503 TC_2016_503 TC_2022_503 TC_2026_503

VKT 8,851,871 9,460,153 10,347,869 10,990,153 22,664,192 24,606,870 27,329,573 29,222,975 9,207,351 9,885,478 10,896,329 11,621,666 15,109,462 16,404,580 18,219,715 19,481,984 55,832,875 60,357,082 66,793,487 71,316,778VHT 186,614 194,633 234,681 271,074 387,684 419,104 469,639 512,127 212,825 221,586 272,773 313,876 258,456 279,403 313,093 341,418 1,045,579 1,114,726 1,290,186 1,438,496

Average Speed 47.4 48.6 44.1 40.5 58.5 58.7 58.2 57.1 43.3 44.6 39.9 37.0 58.5 58.7 58.2 57.1 53.4 54.1 51.8 49.6

NOTES1) Traffic Growth Rates post 2022 (Whole of Model Number of Vehicles) Light Vehicles 1.31% p.a. Heavy Vehicles 1.35% p.a.

(Based on Model Runs to 2026 for the latest ABS Medium Demographic Growth)2) Projection of model results indicates that traffic volumes on Airport Link do not reach capacity by 2042.3) No new information on vehicle fleet breakdown has been obtained.4) The 2003/04 SEQ Travel Survey remains the most recent suitable source of vehicle occupancy data.5) Current business case analysis uses an annualisation factor of 330, for both light and heavy vehicles.6) Daytime traffic has been taken as 60% of total off-peak traffic, based on count analysis for a selection of Brisbane locations.

AL EIS : Light Vehicle VHT Data for Greenhouse Calculations2012 Light Vehicle VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2012_501 TC_2012_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

253,768 257,72611,095 11,342423,992 412,693161,297 157,05194,240 92,59550,825 50,091995,217 981,497

2016 Light Vehicle VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2016_501 TC_2016_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

279,866 284,49811,923 12,466442,667 428,394169,431 165,720102,458 100,19256,311 55,218

1,062,658 1,046,487

2022 Light Vehicle VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2022_501 TC_2022_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

334,238 338,49512,709 13,104509,924 491,789193,825 187,754114,487 110,18772,887 70,712

1,238,069 1,212,041

2026 Light Vehicle VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2026_501 TC_2026_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

382,656 384,85713,297 13,767556,266 536,847213,399 206,842125,823 122,45087,209 85,612

1,378,649 1,350,376

Notes: 330 x ADWT = Annual

AWDT = Average Week Day Traffic

Difference in KM Travelled = VHT With Project Scenario - VHT Without Project (A negative result represents a reduction in VHT)

Motorway

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterial

Motorway

SuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

AL EIS : Heavy Vehicle VHT Data for Greenhouse Calculations2012 Heavy Vehicle VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2012_501 TC_2012_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

19,102 19,3471,008 1,006

28,162 27,6538,820 8,6094,656 4,5792,934 2,888

64,682 64,081

2016 Heavy Vehicle VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2016_501 TC_2016_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

20,960 21,3141,028 1,063

28,822 27,9549,552 9,3325,105 5,0093,610 3,568

69,076 68,239

2022 Heavy Vehicle VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2022_501 TC_2022_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

23,715 24,1211,224 1,228

32,953 31,93010,843 10,4956,100 5,7844,743 4,587

79,578 78,145

2026 Heavy Vehicle VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2026_501 TC_2026_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

26,175 26,5311,316 1,384

37,114 35,91412,022 11,6156,987 6,8545,929 5,822

89,543 88,120

Notes: 330 x ADWT = Annual

AWDT = Average Week Day Traffic

Difference in KM Travelled = VHT With Project Scenario - VHT Without Project (A negative result represents a reduction in VHT)

Motorway

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterial

Motorway

SuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

AL EIS : Light Vehicle VKT Data for Economics Calculations

2012 Light Vehicle VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2012_501 TC_2012_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

20,452,134 20,953,093561,902 546,251

18,933,358 18,695,4087,768,928 7,662,1633,155,309 3,119,1391,246,236 1,225,702

52,117,867 52,201,756

2016 Light Vehicle VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2016_501 TC_2016_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

22,900,480 23,424,339586,913 563,227

20,060,462 19,814,6088,204,546 8,097,7263,323,010 3,274,1921,290,584 1,264,946

56,365,996 56,439,038

2022 Light Vehicle VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2022_501 TC_2022_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

25,817,839 26,378,064583,655 569,733

21,926,179 21,680,5659,086,288 8,945,0313,669,687 3,603,7821,424,230 1,390,950

62,507,879 62,568,125

2026 Light Vehicle VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2026_501 TC_2026_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only28,007,679 28,564,732

590,535 571,41223,086,370 22,826,6499,697,083 9,562,3903,914,665 3,854,3821,517,509 1,489,126

66,813,840 66,868,691

Notes: 330 x ADWT = Annual

AWDT = Average Week Day Traffic

Difference in KM Travelled = VKT With Project Scenario - VKT Without Project (A negative result represents a reduction in VKT)

Motorway

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterial

Motorway

SuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

AL EIS : Heavy Vehicle VKT Data for Economics Calculations2012 Heavy Vehicle VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2012_501 TC_2012_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

1,650,850 1,668,17753,895 50,124

1,269,703 1,259,070417,507 412,631173,416 171,45170,922 69,666

3,636,293 3,631,119

2016 Heavy Vehicle VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2016_501 TC_2016_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

1,818,577 1,847,25153,138 49,393

1,336,263 1,317,019451,927 444,299187,402 185,06276,526 75,019

3,923,833 3,918,044

2022 Heavy Vehicle VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2022_501 TC_2022_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

1,958,784 1,995,55959,984 55,289

1,433,565 1,409,688494,670 484,371203,794 199,23383,375 81,220

4,234,172 4,225,362

2026 Heavy Vehicle VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2026_501 TC_2026_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

2,062,653 2,100,55462,671 60,150

1,498,437 1,473,650526,750 514,479214,821 210,95690,056 88,298

4,455,389 4,448,087

Notes: 330 x ADWT = Annual

AWDT = Average Week Day Traffic

Difference in KM Travelled = VKT With Project Scenario - VKT Without Project (A negative result represents a reduction in VKT)

Motorway

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterial

Motorway

SuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

AL EIS : Total VKT Data for Economics Calculations

2012 Total VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2012_501 TC_2012_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

22,102,984 22,621,270615,797 596,376

20,203,061 19,954,4788,186,435 8,074,7943,328,725 3,290,5901,317,157 1,295,368

55,754,160 55,832,875

2016 Total VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2016_501 TC_2016_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

24,719,057 25,271,590640,050 612,619

21,396,726 21,131,6288,656,473 8,542,0253,510,412 3,459,2551,367,111 1,339,965

60,289,829 60,357,082

2022 Total VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2022_501 TC_2022_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

27,776,623 28,373,623643,639 625,022

23,359,744 23,090,2549,580,958 9,429,4033,873,481 3,803,0151,507,605 1,472,171

66,742,050 66,793,487

2026 Total VKT Data for Brisbane

TC_2026_501 TC_2026_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only30,070,333 30,665,286

653,206 631,56224,584,807 24,300,29910,223,833 10,076,8694,129,485 4,065,3381,607,565 1,577,424

71,269,228 71,316,778

Notes: 330 x ADWT = Annual

AWDT = Average Week Day Traffic

Difference in KM Travelled = VKT With Project Scenario - VKT Without Project (A negative result represents a reduction in VKT)

Motorway

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterial

Motorway

SuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

AL EIS : Total VHT Data for Greenhouse Calculations

2012 Total VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2012_501 TC_2012_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

272,870 277,07312,103 12,348452,154 440,346170,117 165,66098,897 97,17453,759 52,979

1,059,899 1,045,579

2016 Total VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2016_501 TC_2016_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

300,826 305,81112,951 13,529471,489 456,347178,982 175,052107,563 105,20159,921 58,785

1,131,733 1,114,726

2022 Total VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2022_501 TC_2022_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

357,953 362,61613,933 14,332542,877 523,719204,668 198,248120,587 115,97177,630 75,299

1,317,647 1,290,186

2026 Total VHT Data for Brisbane

TC_2026_501 TC_2026_503Do Minimum Airport Link Only

408,831 411,38814,613 15,151593,379 572,761225,421 218,458132,810 129,30593,138 91,434

1,468,192 1,438,496

Notes: 330 x ADWT = Annual

ADWT = Average Week Day Traffic

Difference in KM Travelled = VHT With Project Scenario - VHT Without Project (A negative result represents a reduction in VHT)

Motorway

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterial

Motorway

SuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

LocalTotal

ExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrict

MotorwayExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrictLocalTotal

AL EIS : Total VKT Data for Economics

Total Average Weekday VKT on Airport Link Tunnel Sections

TC...503Airport Link Only

318,59612,775331,372

339,68721,969361,656

367,02430,326397,350

375,34934,395409,744

Notes: 330 x Average Weekday = Annual Total

2012Light VehiclesHeavy VehiclesTotal2016Light VehiclesHeavy VehiclesTotal2022Light VehiclesHeavy Vehicles

Total

Total2026Light VehiclesHeavy Vehicles

PAGE 88

APPENDIX CCBA Findings Summary Sheets

Active ScenarioDiscount Rate

Benefits escalator

Discounted Cash flowsPresent Value of Costs PVPresent Value Benefits PVNet Present Value NPVBenefit Cost Ratio (BCR)

Discounted CostsCAPEX OPEXTotal Discounted Costs

Discounted BenefitsTravel TimeVOCRoad SafetyEnvironmentalTotal Discounted Benefits

1. Travel Time BenefitsCars (Business)Cars (Private)Light CommercialHeavy CommercialTravel Time Benefits Total

% Segment % TotalCars Business 19% 13%

Cars Private 74% 53%Light Commercial 5% 3%

Heavy Commercial 3% 2%100.0% 72%

131,110,706

1,716,703,984$ 487,311,107$ 81,875,458$

1.1

1,946,500,707$ 292,929,182$

2,239,429,888$

84,650,045$

$82,005,803$52,426,616

$1,716,703,984

2,370,540,594$

Present Value$319,494,571

$1,262,776,995

6.8%

Light Vehicles Heavy Vehicles

Airport Link Cost Benefit Summary AnalysisName Description

1 Project Case

0.0131 0.0135

2,239,429,8882,370,540,594

72%

21%

3% 4%

Travel Time

VOC

Road Safety

Environmental

Cars (Business)

Cars (Private)

Light Commercial

Heavy Commercial

72%

21%

3% 4%

Travel Time

VOC

Road Safety

Environmental

2. Vehicle Operating Benefits (VOC)Cars

MotorwayExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrictLocalTotal Light Vehicles

Heavy VehiclesMotorwayExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrictLocalTotal Heavy Vehicles

VOC Benefits Total3. Road Safety BenefitsMotorwayExpresswayArterialSuburbanDistrictLocalRoad Safety Total4. Environmental BenefitsCars NoiseAir PollutionWater PollutionTotal CarsHeavy VehiclesNoiseAir PollutionWater PollutionTotal Heavy VehiclesTotal Environmental Benefits

Present Value-$302,161,403

$7,776,516$332,557,417$120,054,393$63,325,153$30,763,537$252,315,614

-$164,701,560$643,889

$252,453,613

$8,137,851$81,875,458

$84,825,918$38,388,475$23,385,158$234,995,493

$42,608,259

$9,605,330$28,815,990$4,186,939

$37,383,946$16,355,126

$3,316,729$42,041,786$84,650,045

$487,311,107

-$36,008,606$1,394,225$54,612,916

$3,824,697$34,900,360