ROAPE Publications Ltd.

Prospects for Namibian IndependenceAuthor(s): Lionel CliffeSource: Review of African Political Economy, No. 43, Feeding Africa: What Now? (1988), p.125Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd.Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4005764 .

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BRIEFINGS 125

Prospects for Peace in Western Sahara David Seddon

The last six months have seen significant developments in negotiations to bring about a resolution of the long war in the Western Sahara (see my article 'Morocco and the Western Sahara' in ROAPE no.38, 1987). The formal acceptance at the end of August last year by both the Moroccan government and the Polisario Front of UN proposals for a cease fire and a subsequent referendum in the Western Sahara on the future status of the territory was followed by an intensificaiton of diplomatic activity and by increasing pressure on both parties of the conflict to move towards an agreed basis for a settlement. In January 1989, for the first time, King Hassan of Morocco talked with a Polisario Front delegation and both sides declared afterwards that important progress had been made. In the next issue of ROAPE, we shall provide a detailed and up to date Briefing on these recent developments which could herald an end to a war that has lasted nearly 15 years and ask, what are the prospects for a 'just and lasting settlement' in the Western Sahara.

Prospects for Namibian Independence Lionel Cliffe

As we go to press, it seems likely that 1 April 1989 will be 'D-Day' for Namibia - the beginning of the nine month count down to elections and then Independence and a final end to South African rule. The agreement negotiated, after ten years of largely token effort, by the five western nations 'Contact Group' with the South African government and SWAPO provides for the setting up of a UN presence to supervise a ceasefire, the return of exiles and eventually, if all goes according to plan, elections in November. As this agreement is also complementary, in practice, to that signed at the end of 1988 to end South African intervention and Cuban presence in Angola, it can be assumed that there is an understanding behind the scenes between the superpowers.

If there is to be a genuine Independence and the return to normal political life and the elections are to guarantee self-determination for the Namibian people, it is important that the complex terms of the set of agreements known in 'shorthand' as UN Resolution 435, which do no favours to SWAPO, are at least lived up to. It would have been difficult enough to do this because the Contact Group has not revealed the full details, only a summary of the agreements, even to the UN, and is also keeping the matter before the Security Council, where the major powers have a veto, not the General Assembly. Now it is proposed that the military force available to the UN to police the ceasefire is to be almost halved from what was agreed - with the only protests coming from African countries. It is hoped to shed light on this obscured terrain and to update readers on the actual progress toward Independence in the next issue of ROAPE.

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