February 5, 2009 Strategic Vision Plan City of Mandan Community Meeting

February 5, 2009

Strategic Vision PlanCity of MandanCommunity Meeting

Presented By• J. Mac Holladay, CEO• Alex Pearlstein, Senior Project Manager• Ellen Anderson, Research Manager

Community Meeting

Agenda

• National realities

• About Market Street

• Overview of the Strategic Vision planning process

• Key findings from the Economic and Demographic Snapshot

• Next steps

National Realities

U.S. Economy: Job losses in 2008

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted

-600,000

-500,000

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

-76,000

-83,000

-88,000

-67,000

-47,000-100,000

-67,000

-127,000

-403,000

-423,000

-584,000-524,000

Total jobs lost: 2.5

million

U.S. Economy: Gains and losses by sectorDecember 2008

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonally adjusted.

(150) (100) (50) - 50

Manufacturing

Trade and transport.

Prof. and tech. srvs

Construction

Retail

Wholesale trade

Leisure and hospitality

Information

Financial activities

Education

Government

Health Care

Thousands

Unemployment Rates: December 2008

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted

Metro Economies Report, 2000-2008

-2.73+-2.5 to 0

0 to 2.5

2.5+

Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors, Jan. 2009

The World in 2009

“Anyone hoping for a period of calm after the turbulence of the past year will be disappointed. For the economy and for business, as well as for politics, 2009 promises to be a year of bracing adjustment to a changed world.”

Daniel Franklin, EditorThe World in 2009The Economist

Announced Job Cuts – January 2009

Circuit City 30,000Pfizer/Wyeth 26,000Caterpillar 20,000Alcoa 13,500Sprint Nextel 8,000TDK Corp. 8,000Home Depot 7,000ING 7,000Starbucks 6,700Intel 6,000BHP Billiton 6,000Schlumberger 6,000Eaton 5,200Microsoft 5,000

Ericsson 5,000Boeing 4,500Kodak 4,500Hertz 4,000Motorola 4,000Corus 3,500Honda 3,100EMC Corp. 2,400Barclay’s 2,100Nortel 2,000Cessna 2,000MeadWestvaco 2,000Clear Channel 1,850Target 1,500

WellPoint 1,500Williams-Sonoma 1,400Conoco Phillips 1,300Huntsman Corp. 1,175AMD 1,100Advanced Micro Devices 1,100Harley-Davidson 1,100Cigna 1,100Saks Fifth Avenue 1,100United Airlines 1,000BCBS of Michigan 1,000Walgreens 1,000UAL Corporation 1,000

212,675 JOBS

Losing ConfidenceThe consumer confidence index from a survey of 5,000 U.S. households:

Source: The Conference Board

Seasonally adjusted: 1985=100

January 37.7

Nov. 2006: 105.3

October 2008: 38.0

December 2008: 38.6

Recent Headlines

“Macy’s to Shed 7,000 Jobs”Rachel DadesWall Street JournalFebruary 3, 2009

“More States Considering Tax Breaks to Woo Jobs” Stephaine SimonWall Street JournalFebruary 2, 2009

“Unemployment Rises in Every State” Conor DoughertyWall Street JournalJanuary 28, 2009

“Conference Board: U.S. could lose another 2 million jobs in 2009”Adam KressAtlanta Business Chronicle January 12, 2009

“Yearly Job Loss Worst Since 1945” Kelley Evans & Kris MaherWall Street JournalJanuary 10-11, 2009

Metro Economies Report

Projected 2009 Employment (Q4 08 – Q4 09)

Number %New York, NY -180,800 -2.1%Los Angeles, CA -164,100 -3.0%Chicago, IL -80,300 -1.8%Detroit, MI -50,400 -2.7%Las Vegas, NV -35,700 -3.9%Minneapolis, MN -13,800 -0.8%Omaha, NE -5,500 -1.2%Des Moines, IA -5,100 -1.6%Sioux Falls, SD -1,800 -1.4%Boise, ID -1,800 -0.6%Fargo, ND -1,400 -1.2%Bismarck-Mandan, ND -1,300 -2.1%

MSAEmployment Change

Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors, Jan. 2009

“Business’ 10 Biggest Battles”

1. Labor Elections: Why Obama may Disappoint the Unions

2. Housing: The Mortgage Fight has Just Begun

3. Climate Change: A Rising Chorus for a Law that Limits Emissions

4. Health Reform: Stumbling Blocks still Remain

5. Corporate Taxes: The Country Struggle over Who Pays What

6. Broadband: Faster or More Inclusive?

7. Education: NO Option Left Behind

8. Immigration: One Reform at a Time

9. Executive Pay: Bailout Money Could Have More Strings Attached

10. Trade: Hawks will Square off Against Retailers

Source: John Carey & Theo FrancisBusiness WeekJanuary 26, 2009

How Far Down?Recession Realities

• Mortgage and financial crisis• Huge decline in discretionary (especially retail) spending• The continuing decline in housing value, sales, and new construction• Plummeting consumer confidence• Job losses every month of 2008• Rising food costs• Federal and state deficits• Automakers at risk and requesting bailout• The continuing cost in Iraq and Afghanistan (human and fiscal)• Enormous stock losses and continuing fluctuation• Recent reductions of oil prices but no stability

Source: J. Mac Holladay, January 2009

Employment Prospects

Top Jobs

1. Nurses

2. Home Care and Nursing Aides

3. Orderlies

4. Pharmacy Techs

5. Physical Therapists

6. Physician and Dental Assistants

7. Mental Health Counselors

Small Base – Fast Growing Jobs

1. Veterinarians and Vet Technicians

2. Makeup Artists

3. Skin Care Specialists

4. Gaming Investigators

Source: The Kiplinger Letter

Washington

January 30, 2009

Long-Term Prospects

1. Teachers – Post-Secondary, Elementary, and Assistants

2. Computer Software Engineers

3. Data Communications Analysts

4. Systems Analysts5. Accountants and Auditors6. Truck Drivers7. Security Guards8. Carpenters9. Landscapers10.Management Analysts

“Elvis Has Left the Mountain”

“First, if it is not apparent to you yet, it will be soon: there is no magic bullet for this economic crisis, no magic bailout package, no magic stimulus…We are going to have to learn to live with a lot more uncertainty for a lot longer than our generation has ever experienced.”

Thomas L. FriedmanNew York TimesFebruary 1, 2009

Market Street Services

Background on Market Street

• Market Street brings original insights and clarity to the evaluation and revitalization of the places where people live, work and grow.

• Through honest and informed assessments, we can equip you with the tools to create meaningful change.

• Our solutions successfully merge our experience and expertise with the economic and social realities of our clients.

• Market Street’s community clients are successful at creating stronger programs, increasing operational budgets, and creating new quality jobs that improve the quality of life in their communities.

Market Street’s Client Communities

• Current projects:› Palm Beach County, Florida› Tulsa, Oklahoma› Fort Benning (GA) Regional Growth Management Plan› Little Rock, Arkansas› San Marcos, Texas› Decatur, Alabama

• Implementation contracts:› State of West Virginia› Gwinnett County, Georgia

• Recent projects:› Austin, Texas › Jefferson City, Missouri› Nashville, Tennessee› State of Wyoming

Mandan’sStrategic Visioning Process

Scope of Work

March

Completed

In Progress

April/May

May

Economic and Demographic Snapshot

• Analyze demographic and economic trends and assess their impact on community capacity

• Provide information on:– Growth patterns – population and employment– Community make-up - age and race– Community well-being – poverty, per capita income– Economic structure – business sectors– Labor force capacity – participation rates, unemployment rates

• Compare Mandan-Morton County to the Bismarck metro area, state of North Dakota, and the U.S.

Community Assessment

• Competitiveness is far more holistic than just traditional infrastructure and business costs

• Key factors:– Education and workforce development– Infrastructure and land use– Business costs– Quality of life

Stakeholder Input Process

• Qualitative information gathering

• Build consensus

• Project website: mandanvisionplan.com

Strategic Vision Plan

• Culmination of all prior research components

• Recommendation of goals, objectives, and action steps to re-align Mandan for the future

• Describes best practices and provides benchmarks and performance measures

• Strategy areas could include:– Preferred land-uses by district– Marketing efforts– Development preferences by type– Education and training programs– Entrepreneurship and small business programs– Leveraging regional assets

Implementation Guidelines

• Critical to the success of the Vision Plan

• Key components:– Program assessments and recommended enhancements – Funding allocation recommendations– Timetable – 1-year and 5-year

› Priority actions identified to provide “early victories”

Economic and Demographic Snapshot

Demographic Trends:Population change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the USDA Economic Research Service

Great Plains Hit Hard by Out-Migration (2000-2007)

Demographic Trends:Population change

Total Population Growth, 2000-2007

Number Percent

City of Mandan 16,718 17,736 1,018 6.1%

City of Bismarck 55,532 59,503 3,971 7.2%

Bismarck MSA 94,719 103,242 8,523 9.0%

Burleigh County 69,416 77,316 7,900 11.4%

Morton County 25,303 25,926 623 2.5%

North Dakota 642,200 639,715 -2,485 -0.4%

United States 281,421,906 301,621,157 20,199,251 7.2%

Population Change2000 Population

2007 Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Demographic Trends:Age distribution

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

17 and Under

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65 and Older

Mandan-Morton County

Bismarck MSA

North Dakota

United States

Population Change by Age Group, 2000-2007


Note: Like most Great Plains communities, Mandan-Morton County has a slightly older age distribution compared to the U.S.

Demographic Trends:Race and ethnic composition

Population Change by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2007


White Black HispanicAmerican

Indian Other

Mandan-Morton County 314 28 65 138 78

Percent change, 2000-07 1% 74% 40% 23% 22%

Bismarck MSA 6,256 294 572 275 399

Percent change, 2000-07 7% 144% 91% 10% 33%

North Dakota (13,738) 2,358 4,216 3,159 1,520

Percent change, 2000-07 -2% 63% 54% 10% 14%

United States 4,538,793 3,089,367 10,198,493 217,851 2,154,747

Percent change, 2000-07 2% 9% 29% 11% 14%

Demographic Trends:Educational attainment

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2007

20% 14%

32% 37%

21% 18%

10% 11%

14% 16%

3% 4% Graduate or professional degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

High school graduate

No diploma

Mandan-Morton County Educational Attainment (for adults ages 25+)


Demographic Trends:Poverty rates

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%


Bismarck MSA North Dakota United States

9.6%

8.2%

10.4% 11.3%

9.1% 8.1%

11.8%13.0%

2000 2007

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

15.0%

18.0%



12.1%

9.6%

13.1%

16.2%

12.8%

10.1%

14.0%

18.0%

2000 2007

Total Population Rates

Child Poverty Rates

Demographic Trends:Per capita income

Percent Amount

Mandan-Morton County $25,850 $29,920 15.7% $4,070

Bismarck MSA $30,049 $34,357 14.3% $4,308

North Dakota $29,389 $32,763 11.5% $3,374

United States $34,940 $36,714 5.1% $1,774

Change

2000 2006

Real Per Capita Income, 2000 and 2006

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Economic Trends:Employment and wages

Total Employment and Wages, Q2 2006 and Q2 2008

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Number Percent Amount Percent

Mandan-Morton County 9,288 199 2.2% $31,753 $1,528 5.1%

Bismarck MSA 59,433 1,907 3.3% $34,941 $2,656 8.2%

North Dakota 352,838 13,555 4.0% $34,031 $3,311 10.8%

United States 136,141,522 1,701,221 1.3% $43,732 $2,956 7.2%

Change since Q2 2006

Q2 2008

Employment Average Annual Wage

Q2 2008

Change since Q2 2006

Economic Trends:Unemployment rates

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2007 2008


Bismarck MSA

North Dakota

United States

Monthly Unemployment Rates, 11/2007 – 11/2008

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Economic Trends: Economic Structure, Mandan-Morton County

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor

Statistics

Economic Trends:Average Annual Wages

Q2 2008

Change since Q2

2006

% change since Q2

2006

Manufacturing $47,486 -$3,808 -7.4%

Professional and technical services $43,376 $3,747 9.5%

Public administration $37,669 $1,722 4.8%

Transportation and warehousing $37,168 $1,351 3.8%

Management of companies and enterprises $37,095 $7,499 25.3%

Finance and insurance $36,132 $802 2.3%

Construction $34,546 $3,987 13.0%

Wholesale trade $32,609 $1,642 5.3%

Information $32,584 $7,349 29.1%

Retail trade $28,074 $2,540 9.9%

Other services, except public administration $22,115 $954 4.5%

Administrative and waste services $21,609 -$3,856 -15.1%

Accommodation and food services $11,416 $1,378 13.7%

Arts, entertainment, and recreation $8,005 -$1,433 -15.2%

Educational services* - - -

Health care and social assistance* - - -

$31,753 $1,528 5.1%


Wag

es a

bove

Cou

nty

aver

age

Wag

es b

elow

Cou

nty

aver

age

No

data

av

ail.

Average Annual Wage (all sectors)

• Smaller proportion of local entrepreneurs in “white collar” services

– professional and technical services

– real estate– finance and insurance– and information

• High proportions of local entrepreneurs in

– other services– retail trade– health care– construction

Economic Trends:Entrepreneurship

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000



$28,

821

$32,

562

$34,

112

$43,

638

$31,719 $35,069 $35,978

$46,724

2002 2006

Non-Employer Average Annual Earnings, 2002 and 2006


Key Findings: Demographics

• Slow, steady population growth in Mandan and Morton County– Older age distribution than the region, state, and nation– Growing more diverse, but is still fairly homogenous

• Educational attainment of local adults trails behind, but is improving– Lower percentage of local adults with a bachelor’s, graduate, or professional degree;

however, there has been growth in these segments since 2000 and a decline in the percentage of residents without a high school diploma

• Per capita incomes lag behind, but have experienced strong growth– Real PCI grew 15.7 percent in Morton County, more than the region and state and triple

the national rate

• Childhood poverty rates are an area of concern

Key Trends: Economics

• Mandan-Morton County’s economy is growing and well diversified; however, growth trails the metro area and state, and local unemployment is higher– Still, the local economy is performing better than the nation– Local job growth in key sectors including health care, construction,

manufacturing, education, and professional and technical services.

• Average wages in Mandan-Morton County are rising, both overall and in key sectors

• Nearly 2,000 local residents claim themselves as “non-employers” – and their average income is rising

Next Steps

Next Steps in Process

February – May • Market Street will continue to work with the Steering Committee

May 27 (5:00 – 6:00) – Community Meeting• Public roll-out of the Mandan Vision Plan

In the mean time….log on and take the online survey!• Mandanvisionplan.com

Online Survey

Mandanvisionplan.com

“Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success.”

Henry Ford

Questions?

Thank you!

Documents

February 5, 2009 Strategic Vision Plan City of Mandan Community Meeting