Fear of risk vs. Risk of fearMickey Gunter

Geological SciencesUniversity of Idaho

Moscow, Idaho U.S.A.

Well, perhaps one's fear of risk, especially in the contexts of scientific reasoning, is presented in terms that appeal to our sense of reasoned judgments and plausible hypotheses--we don't want to, or see the need to, risk negative consequences that are presumably greater than our initial stake or investment, and so we proceed with caution along lines that are predicted by our strongest theoretical assumptions and evidence. Apparently contrary to such assumptions, we think we are not guided by risk of fear--we don't get to the point of fear to risk because our fear of risk already determines that "fear" has been accounted for, put aside or outside our rational process of deliberation that need not account for fear itself except as a remainder that has been left out of the equation when we should consider rather whether such fear is always at work, conditioning our sense of what is reasonable and plausible, and we 'know' that it is unreasonable to try to base our calculations upon risking fear rather than fearing risk because what and where does risking the acknowledgement of fear get us, and so we deny that fear has any productive contribution to make in our reasoning or experiential/experimental process--instead of only fearing risk we might entertain the thought that the risk of fear is necessary to surpass our previous notions of what is possible, of what is reasonable, of who we might be or become, and whether what we fear is something other than us or some aspect of oneself that we don't want to risk claiming as part of our being and identity--but these musings in response to your question are my best way of avoiding risking fear out of my fear of risk because there's no way that I would follow your risky path, strewn with broken Mickey bones or contrary views--be my guest, take the lead and I'll follow if only to know by your descent where the cliff break or avalanche starts--if you surprise me and end up hang-gliding away or telemark beyond my sight, I'll sip my espresso and applaud the exception to the rule.

Reason for previous…

My meaning of title

* we have (an irrational) fear of the things that won’t hurt us

* and have (an arrogant) lack of concern for things that will kill us

Death statistics (US/year)

- 2,200,000: deaths

- 725,000: heart diseases

- 500,000: cancer

- 320,000: pulmonary diseases

- 435,000: smoking cigs

- 400,000: (too much) food

- 85,000: (too much) booze

- 43,000: auto accidents

“The dose makes the poison” (Paracelsus, 1567).

Death statistics (cont.)

- 500: asbestos

- 150: airlines & lightning

- 0: fluoride in water

- 0: mad cow disease

- 0: snake bites

- and countless others <10

Risk of death vs Fear of death

risk of death

fear ofdeath

- self imposed

- by ignorance

What?

Alveolar macrophages

phagocytosis chrysotile.

Oh!

White blood cells “eating”

minerals in the lungs.

Libby, Montana

vermiculite mining

Zonolite

amphibole-a$be$to$

Libby miners

200

2 >$0.2B

sample collecting fall 1999

fall 2004 visit

Dust and Idaho farmers

- quartz!

- human carcinogen?

World Trade Center (WTC) dust

- size - composition

- “pH”

0

100

200

300

400

1970 1980 1990

year

deaths

asbestosis

silicosis

Silicosis & asbestosis deaths in the U.S.A.

Gunter 1999

60,000

85,000

110,000

135,000

160,000

1970 1980 1990

year

lung cancer deaths

Lung cancer deaths in the U.S.A.

Background levels of dust

In air: - 0.0004 to 0.01 fibers / cc -> breathe 4,000 to 100,000 fibers / day

(Mossman et al. 1990, Klein 1993)

- 10g / m3 (of 5m sized particles) -> breathe 2,500,000 particles / day(Norton & Gunter 1999)

In lungs: - 80,000,000 “fibers” with 50% asbestos

general population Vancouver, BC (Chrug 1983)

- white-asbestos = 50,000,000 and tremolite-asbestos = 6,000,000general population San Francisco (Chrug & Warnock 1980)

The real problem!

opinion

The solution!

opinion

Where’s the risk(s)?

powerlines

cars

air

1.4M

50,000

500

January 28, 1986 ?

Perception vs reality

• list 3 environmental problems

• saving the environment– Mickey’s 3R ‘s + 1

• reproduction• relocation• recreation

• rationalization :-(

IMBY

Really dangerous stuff

Monument in Asbestos, Quebec