Farmers’ Perception, Adaptation and Response

Ernest L. Molua

(University of Buea, Cameroon)

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Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

Schlenker and Lobell (2010)

Impacts…Impacts…

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Projected ranges of climate change impacts on African agriculture, expressed as change in percent relative to present conditions

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Responses to climate change

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2100

4

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

19000

Future temperatureincrease

1950 2000 2050

Year

C a

bove

pre

-indu

stri

al g

lob

al m

ean

tem

pera

tur e

Business asusual

Stabilizationscenario

Need to Adapt and Mitigate at the Same Time

NASA/GISS

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Quantifying Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change

Settlement

Food

Health

Ecosystems

Water

Sensitivity sectors Coping and Adaptive Capacity sectors

Economics

Human Resources

Environment

National Baseline Estimates and Projections of Sectoral Indicators,

Sensitivity and Coping-Adaptive Capacity, and Vulnerability-Resilience Response Indicators to Climate Change

Sensitivity Indicators Coping-Adaptive Capacity Indicators

R. Moss: 2001

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Integrated vulnerability/adaptation

Source: Bohle, Watts, Downing

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Types of adaptation• Reactive and anticipatory adaptation

– Reactive• institutions, individuals, plants and animals make in response to

climate change, after the fact.

– Anticipatory • deliberate decisions to prepare for potential effects of climate

change; i.e. taken in advance of climate change, before the fact.– requires foresight and planning, whereas reaction does not require but

may involve foresight and planning.

• Autonomous and planned adaptation– Autonomous adaptation

• natural or spontaneous adjustments in the face of a changing climate

– Planned adaptation• conscious intervention, e.g. building sea walls.

– may be used to influence (autonomous) adaptation by other actors

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Strategies to reduce sensitivity or increase coping capacity

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Examples of Agricultural Adaptation

• Crop diversification• Introduction of new crops • Extensification of most hardy crops • Development of irrigated agriculture/Improved

irrigation efficiency• Shifting planting dates • Reduction of post-harvest losses • Soil fertilisation • Irrigation • Training programmes and dissemination• Research and development of new (salinity and

drought resistant) crops

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Adaptation strategies can be categorized into four major categories

• Agricultural techniques to adapt to changes in rainfall regime, which include e.g. seed selection, adapt planting dates, adapt fertilizer application, adapt feed techniques, improve food storage facilities, change of pastoral system;

• Water management techniques to adapt to changes in rainfall regime, which include e.g. use of water harvesting techniques, rehabilitate terraces, improve irrigation techniques, improve watering sites in pastoral areas;

• Diversification techniques in order to diversify the income sources, which include e.g. temporal or permanent migration, use of alternative sources for fuel wood, home-garden agriculture, changes in the consumption pattern or reductions of livestock herds; and

• Communal pooling techniques, which include e.g. reforestation, rangeland preservation, communal food storage facilities or local water management rules.

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13Bryan et al: 2011

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Constraints to Adaptation

Bryan et al: 2011

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Framework for selection, evaluation and prioritizing adaptation practices