FAO CGIAR WMO

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?

• How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?

• What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

Fundamental Questions

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of global environmental change on food systems

and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive

responses aimed at improving food security.

GECAFS Vision and Goal

A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress.

• Global Environmental Change

changes in the biogeophysical environment occurring naturally, or caused or strongly influenced by human activities.

• Food Systems

an interconnected set of researchable processes encompassing food access & availability.

• Food Security

a state or condition underpinned by food systems achieved when societies have year-round access to the necessary amount and variety of safe foods.

Key Terms

Global Environmental Change

Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

For example changes in:

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Post-Harvest Handling

• Exchange & Trade

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Preference

• Nutritional Value

Components of Food Systemsresearchable elements

FOOD AVAILABILITYProduction, Post-Harvest Handling, Exchange

• Financial & social assets• Land tenure• Technology• Labour availability & productivity • Market policies (prices, credit & subsidies)

• Market infrastructure (storage, transport)• Trade policy (border controls, international agreements)

• Exclusive economic zones

• Natural assets• Climate & weather• Condition of soil• Germplasm • Water availability & distribution • Plant pests & diseases• Animal diseases• Post-harvest pests & contaminants

• Financial & social assets• Employment, wages & incomes’• Prices & household budgets• Customs, tastes & trends• Dietary patterns• Food standard regulations

• Natural assets• Seasonality• Appearance • Nutrient content• Contamination

FOOD ACCESS Affordability, Preference & Nutritional Value

EXAMPLE DETERMINANTS OF FOOD SYSTEMS

Achieving the Goal

1. Improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and key socioeconomic and biogeophysical components of the Earth System.

2. Deliver the new science necessary to assist policy formulation for improving food security in the face of GEC.

GECAFS Conceptual Framework

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation & Decision Support

1. Conceptual & Methodological Research

i. Food Systems Conceptsii. Vulnerability Conceptsiii. Scenario Constructioniv. Decision Support Systems

2. Food Systems Research in

i. Indo-Gangetic Plainii. Caribbeaniii. Southern Africa

Research Approaches

Develops a GEC science agenda that:

targets generic science issues

improves understanding of the interactions between the Earth System and Food Systems

integrates natural and social sciences

adds value to basic science by underpinning applied science

underpins regionally-based food systems research

Conceptual & Methodological Research

International networking approach Led by small, specialist committees

Coordinated by dedicated Science Officers Specific funding applications, mainly to science agencies

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation & Decision Support

Food Systems Conceptsresearch questions

1. What parameters describe food systems so as to facilitate GECAFS research?

2. Within given food systems, which parameters are most sensitive to GEC?

3. Who are the agents within each major food system, what are their roles, and how do they interact?

Food Systems Vulnerabilityresearch questions

1. What are the dimensions of risk in vulnerable food systems?

2. What are the levels of present risks and how sensitive are they to present trends and future scenarios of vulnerability?

3. How do risks compare among vulnerable populations, between regions and from the local to regional scales?

1. What are the plausible future changes in environmental and socioeconomic conditions that will affect food systems?

2. What elements of global scenarios are most important for regional-level food system analyses?

3. What what are the best approaches for linking global scenarios to regional scale so as to capture regional-level factors relevant to food systems?

Scenario Developmentresearch questions

Decision Support Systemsresearch questions

1. What is the best way to determine the information needs of advisors to policymakers, resource managers and other stakeholders regarding GEC and food issues?

2. How can DSS best be developed to help analyse the socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of adaptation options?

3. What is the best methodological approach to DSS development to optimise communication with stakeholders?

Develops a GEC science agenda that:

targets regional scientific issues

relates to regional development needs

interacts effectively with the regional policy making process

encourages more support for the regional science communities

provides contexts for conceptual research

Regional Food Systems Research

Regional studies approach Led by regional scientists assisted by GECAFS IPO

Specific funding applications, mainly to development agencies

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation & Decision Support

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation & Decision Support

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation & Decision Support

Use science and policy issues identified in

regional projects to help define conceptual and

methodological research.

Integrate conceptual and methodological research

issues across diverse conditions to improve

generic understanding.

Conceptual Research Regional Research

Research Relevance and Partnerships

Science

NaturalSocio-

economic

Science Agendas

Development Agendas

Research Relevance and Partnerships

Science

NaturalSocio-

economic

Science Agendas

Development Agendas

Policy Makers

Resource Managers

Research Relevance and Partnerships

Science

NaturalSocio-

economic