Fair Militancy Pak

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P10021 NARP - Militant Pakistan *DRAFT* House Copy

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The Militant Challenge in Pakistan

C. Christine Fair

C. CHRISTINEFAIRis an Assistant Po!esso at t"e #$%un$ A& 'als" ()"ool o! *oei+n (ei)e at

eo+eto.n niesity& ("e )an e ea)"e$ at ))"istine!aiya"oo&)o%&


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"is essay seeks to "istoi)i6e Pakistan7s lon+-stan$in+ use o! asy%%eti) .a!ae

as an instu%ent to pose)ute its !oei+n an$ een $o%esti) poli)y oe)ties&1'"ile t"e

)onte%poay naaties su++est t"at Pakistan e+an usin+ %ilitants an$ sla%ists as a

tool o! !oei+n poli)y a!te t"e (oiet inasion o! A!+"anistan in 19:9, in !a)t, Pakistan7s

!ist $allian)e .it" ie+ula .a!ae took pla)e in 194:, soon a!te Pakistan e)a%e

in$epen$ent&2n pose)utin+ su)" )on!li)ts Pakistan "as elie$ upon ie+ula !i+"tes an$

razakars ;oluntees o

$is+uise$ as ie+ula !i+"tes&

"e !ist su)" asy%%eti) entue o! 194: at !ist inole$ suppot !o %i$-leel

o!!i)es in t"e a%y )ops ut late, as t"e )on!li)t e?pan$e$ into a !ull-!le$+e .a, t"e

entiety o! t"e a%y e)a%e en+a+e$&3"e e%ploy%ent o! %ua"e$een o e+ula toops

$is+uise$ as su)" "as een t"e !un$a%ent o! Pakistan7s $enial an$ $e)eption e!!ots to

)onin)e $o%esti) an$ intenational au$ien)es t"at t"ese asy%%eti) opeations .ee

)on$u)te$ y non-state a)tos, t"eey )on!ein+ =plausile> $eniaility to s"iel$ t"e

state !o% etiution& "e pole% .it" t"is state+y is t"at it "as esulte$ in t"ee .as

in 194:-48, 19@5 an$ 1999 as .ell as seeal =)isis sli$es> t"at "ae ou+"t n$ia an$

Pakistan to t"e ink o! )on!li)t&

"is essay )onten$s t"at ."ile Pakistan7s use o! asy%%eti) .a!ae e+an in

194:, Pakistan .as li%ite$ in its aility to e?pan$ t"e i"a$ eyon$ as"%i .it"

i%punity until it a)Buie$ !ist a )oet =e?istential> nu)lea )apaility y 1990 an$ an

1 (ee Paeen (.a%i, n$ia, Pakistan an$ t"e (e)et i"a$ ;Don$onE Routle$+e, 200: Co%paatie Politi)s, 32,no& 2 ;anuay 2000


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oet nu)lea )apaility in 1998& "is a+u%ent ot" a$an)es an$ )o%ple%ents t"e

.ok o! Paul (& apu,4."o !o)uses upon t"e n$o-Pakistan )onentional )ises t"at

"ae een enale$ y Pakistan7s )eepin+ nu)lea u%ella& t $oes so, in pat, y

!o)usin+ upon t"e ante)e$ent )on$itions o! Pakistan7s aility to e?pan$ t"e %ilitant

+oups in te%s o! nu%e, opeational s)ope an$ +eo+ap"i)al aea o! opeations as .ell

as Pakistan7s )onte%poay sla%ist %ilitant lan$s)ape an$ t"e elations"ip t"at t"e state

enoys .it" t"ese aious a)tos&

"e e%ain$e o! t"e essay is o+ani6e$ as !ollo.s& t !ist "istoi)i6es Pakistan7s

use o! po?y ele%ents sin)e 194:& Ne?t it tuns to t"e aious .ays in ."i)"

nu)leai6ation !a)ilitate$ Pakistan to $a%ati)ally e?pan$ t"e i"a$ $eep into n$ia

eyon$ as"%i .it" ee%oe ol$ an$ let"al atta)ks& "e t"i$ se)tion $es)ies t"e

)onte%poay %ilitant lan$s)ape in Pakistan an$ t"e )onne)tions t"at e?ist a%on+

$i!!eent %ilitant +oups an$ ot"e suppotin+ eli+ious an$ politi)al o+ani6ations& "is

se)tion also )onsi$es, ase$ nealy e?)lusiely upon !iel$ esea)", t"e elations"ip t"at

t"e a%y an$ intelli+en)e a+en)ies %ay "ae .it" t"ese aious +oups& "is ati)le

)on)lu$es .it" a ie! $is)ussion o! t"e likeli"oo$ t"at Pakistan .ill ee $eelop t"e .ill

%u)" less t"e )apailityFto state+i)ally aan$on %ilitan)y as a tool o! !oei+n poli)y&

"e po+nosis is +loo%y& ien Pakistan7s en$uin+ se)uity )on)ens aout n$ia an$

n$ia7s )ontinue$ as)ent, Pakistan is likely to ely ee %oe intently upon sla%ist

%ilitant +oups een ."ile it )ontinues to e%attle t"ose est."ile po?ies t"at ae no.

tunin+ t"ei +unsFan$ t"ei sui)i$e estsFupon t"e state an$ t"ei !o%e patons&

Pakistans Historical Use o Pro!" #arare

Most )onte%poay %e$ia an$ a)a$e%i) a))ounts asset t"at Pakistan !ist en+a+e$

in usin+ %ilitants as a tool to pose)ute its !oei+n poli)y oe)ties $uin+ t"e anti-(oiet

i"a$ ."en Pakistan, t"e nite$ (tates, (au$i Aaia, an$ ot"es "elpe$ uil$ a %assie

Pakistan-ase$ in!astu)tue to po$u)e sla%ist insu+ents +eneally kno.n as t"e

%ua"e$een& n %ost stan$a$ a))ounts, Pakistan suseBuently e$eploye$ t"ese attle-

4 (& Paul apu, =en eas o! nstaility in a Nu)lea (out" Asia,> ntenational (e)uity, Iol& 33, No&

2, pp& :194 ;2008


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"a$ene$ opeaties to as"%i in 1990 ."en t"e (oiets !o%ally .it"$e. !o%

A!+"anistan&5

n !a)t, Pakistan "as elie$ upon non-state a)tos to pose)ute its !oei+n poli)y

oe)ties in as"%i sin)e its in)eption in 194:& n t"at yea, t"e nas)ent state %oili6e$

nu%eous lashkars, o tial %ilitias, !o% t"e tial aeas to ina$e as"%i to sei6e it

."ile t"e Ma"aaa o! a%%u an$ as"%i, Hai (in+", $it"ee$ on ."et"e "e .oul$

oin n$ia o Pakistan& "ese lashkars.ee suppote$ y t"e Pakistan a%y& Ha$ t"ey not

een si$e-ta)ke$ y t"ei apine iolen)e an$ pilla+in+ o! illa+es en oute, t"e lashkars

%ay "ae su))ess!ully sei6e$ (ina+a& 'oie$ aout ein+ oetaken y t"e tial

%aau$es, t"e Ma"aaa aske$ Ne. el"i !o %ilitay suppot& el"i7s pi)e .as

a))ession to n$ia an$ "e ea$ily si+ne$ t"e instu%ent )o%%ittin+ as"%i to n$ia& Ky

O)toe 194:, Pakistan7s !ist !oay into asy%%eti) .a!ae "a$ pe)ipitate$ t"e !ist

n$o-Pakistan )onentional %ilitay )isis ;t"e 194:-48 .a< .it"in t"e ealy %ont"s o!

t"e t.o states7 e?isten)e& "at .a en$e$ on anuay 1, 1949 .it" t"e estalis"%ent o! a

Cease!ie Dine ;C*D< sponsoe$ y t"e nite$ Nations, ."i)" $e%a)ate$ t"ose aeas

un$e Pakistani an$ n$ian )ontol& "e C*D .as )onete$ to t"e Dine o! Contol ;DOC Small ars and Insurgencies, Iol& 11,

No& 1, (pin+ 2000, pp& @9-81&

6 *o aious a))ounts o! t"is !ist as"%i .a, see ("ua Na.a6, Crossed S!ords;Ne. okE OP,

2008


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%ilitay $uin+ t"e 1950s ."en Pakistan an$ t"e nite$ (tates .ee !o%ally in allian)e

to )onten$ .it" t"e (oiet t"eat&8

'"ile t"e &(& .as an i%potant supplie o! %ilitay eBuip%ent, Pakistan7s %ilitay

un$etook an i%potant $o)tinal s"i!t un$e A%ei)an in!luen)e an$ tutela+e& As

(tep"en Co"en "as note$, Pakistan e+an intensiely stu$yin+ +ueilla .a!ae an$

people7s .a in its en+a+e%ent .it" t"e &(& %ilitay& '"ile t"e &(& oe)tie in

i%patin+ t"is instu)tion .as to suresssu)" .as, Pakistan .as keen to un$estan$

"o. to launch su)" .as a+ainst n$ia o een to $eelop its o.n =people7s a%y> as a

se)on$ $e!ense a+ainst n$ia& '"ile Pakistan po)lai%e$ its suppot to t"ese &(&

oe)ties, Pakistan sou+"t t"is allian)e to uil$ up its a%e$ !o)es to )onten$ .it" its

isin+ easten a$esay&9

'it" A%ei)an assistan)e, Pakistan stoo$ up a (pe)ial *o)es unit in 1959&

Pakistani po!essional %ilitay ounals also e+an e?ploin+ =lo. intensity )on!li)t,> a

)on)ept an$ ena)ula t"at Pakistanis still e%ploy at"e t"an )ounteinsu+en)y& Case

stu$ies .ee .itten on u+oslaia, Not" Iietna%, Al+eia, an$ C"ina& Many o! t"ese

stu$ies )on)lu$e$ t"at +ueilla .a!ae )oul$ e a =state+i) .eapon,> a =slo. ut sue

an$ elatiely ine?pensie> state+y t"at .as =!ast, oes"a$o.in+ e+ula .a!ae&>10

8 As nu%eous .ites, note$ elo., "ae $etaile$, Pakistan a+ee$ to t"e te%s o! t"e anti-(oiet

allian)e out o! a $ie nee$ to euil$ its a%e$ !o)es a!te patition in ."i)" Pakistan $i$ not e)eie its

!ai s"ae o! %oeale assets& Moeoe, %ost o! t"e !i?e$ assets e%aine$ .it" n$ia as t"ey .eelo)ate$ t"ee& n$ia .as suppose$ to pay Pakistan to )o%pensate it !o t"ese lost assets an$ it .as to

poi$e ot"e !inan)ial esou)es& Ho.ee, n$ia soon ene+e$& "e !e. tainloa$s o! supplies t"at n$ia

$i$ $ispat)" .as !ull o! osolete eBuip%ent o ot"e %ateials $ee%e$ un$esieale y Pakistan&Ke)ause o! Kitis" e)uit%ent poli)ies a!te t"e 185: %utiny, t"ee .ee no all-Musli% units& ien t"e

lo+i) o! patition an$ t"e $istiution o! t"e a%e$ !o)es, Pakistan e)eie$ no unit in !ull sten+t" an$

su!!ee$ a seee s"ota+e o! o!!i)es& "us t"e "ap"a6a$ po)ess o! patition +ae ise to t"e inta)tale

se)uity )o%petition t"at pesists& ien t"at Pakistan an$ n$ia )a%e into ein+ as a$esaies, Pakistan

!elt an u+ent nee$ to uil$ its .eake a%e$ !o)es& ien n$ia7s allian)e .it" Russia, Pakistan

)on)lu$e$ t"at a !o%al %ilitay allian)e .it" 'as"in+ton .as an e?pe$itious %eans o! $oin+ so& (ee

Peai6 Bal C"ee%a, The Armed Forces of Pakistan;aa)"iE O?!o$ niesity Pess, 2002


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Maoist $o)tine in pati)ula .as appealin+ e)ause o! Pakistan7s )lose ties to C"ina an$

e)ause t"at $o)tine see%e$ %ost appopiate !o as"%i& Pakistan )on)lu$e$ t"at t"e

peeBuisite )on$itions !o su))ess!ul +ueilla .a in as"%i .ee in pla)eE a .ot"y

)ause, )"allen+in+ teain, a esolute an$ .alike people ;e!ein+ to Pakistanis not

as"%iis ."o .ee not )onsi$ee$ .alike as "appene$ in 194:&11

Dikely inspie$ y its stu$y o! asy%%eti) .a!ae an$ en$ee$ %oe $espeate y

&(& %ilitay assistan)e to n$ia $uin+ its 19@2 .a .it" C"ina, Pakistan laun)"e$

Opeation ialta in 19@5, na%e$ a!te one o! t"e %ost aloi6e$ attles in sla%7s

"istoy& ;Ot"e %otiations also likely in)lu$e a elie! t"at n$ia .as .eak !ollo.in+ its

$e!eat a+ainst C"ina in t"e 19@2 .a an$ Pakistani )on!i$en)e in its i)toy a+ainst n$ia

in a poin+ )on!li)t in t"e Ran o! at)")"&< Pakistani plannes sou+"t to ensue plausile

$eniaility t"at e+ula !o)es .ee not inole$& "e ulk o! ea)" )o%pany o! aout 120

%en .as )o%pise$ o! razakars an$ so-)alle$ %ua"e$een& "ese razakars an$

%ua"e$een .ee $elieately $a.n !o% t"e Pakistan-a$%inistee$ a%%u an$

as"%i an$ +ien spe)ial tainin+& O!!i)es an$ a )o%ponent o! %en !o% t.o

paa%ilitay o+ani6ations, t"e Not"en Di+"t n!anty an$ t"e A6a$ as"%i Ri!les,

a))o%panie$ t"e ie+ulas as $i$ a s%all nu%e o! t"e elite (pe)ial (ei)es oup

)o%%an$os&12oups o! !ou to si? )o%panies .ee )o%ine$ into units )o%%an$e$ y

an o!!i)e .it" t"e ank o! a %ao& Many o! t"e lo)ations at ."i)" t"e ie+ula !i+"tes

19@2Pakistan Arm- Journal, Iol& 5 ;une 19@3


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.ee taine$ .ee late use$ to tain %ua"e$een !o t"e as"%i i"a$ laun)"e$ in

1989&13

A))o$in+ to Paeen (.a%i, all tol$, Pakistan $ispat)"e$ so%e 30,000 in!iltatos

$uin+ Opeation ialta into n$ian-a$%inistee$ as"%i to set up ases, )ay out

saota+e, an$ )eate )on$itions t"at .oul$ ot" !o%ent a .i$e in$i+enous insue)tion

an$ !a)ilitate t"e in$u)tion o! e+ula toops into t"e )on!li)t& n!otunately, t"ee ae

!e. eliale a))ounts aout t"e a)tual nu%e o! in!iltatos use$ $uin+ Opeation

ialta& n ("ua Na.a67s a))ount o! t"is )on!li)t, "e )ites one epot o! 15,000

ie+ula )o%atants at one en+a+e%ent&14'"ile Opeation ialta !aile$ to i+nite t"e

$esie$ in$i+enous eellion a+ainst n$ia, it $i$ su))ee$ in pe)ipitatin+ t"e se)on$

)onentional n$o-Pakistan )onentional )on!li)tE t"e 19@5 .a&15

'"ile Pakistan sustaine$ polon+e$ )oet a)tion in as"%i, y t"e ealy 19:0s it

"a$ also e+un )oetly suppotin+ sla%ist Pas"tun %ilitant +oups in A!+"anistan& ;n

t"e 1980s, it also poi$e$ e?tensie assistan)e to t"e (ik" et"no-nationalist insu+en)y

in t"e Puna&1@< Contay to )onentional .is$o%, t"is poli)y $i$ not )o%%en)e .it" t"e

e)e%e 25, 19:9 (oiet inasion o! A!+"anistan& Rat"e, Pakistan e+an e%ployin+

t"ose $issi$ent eli+ious lea$es ."o !le$ A!+"anistan $uin+ Pesi$ent aou$7s tenue&

A$%itte$ly, Pakistan $i$ t"is on a %o$est s)ale, takin+ )ae not to pooke punitie

a)tion !o% A!+"anistan7s pote)to, t"e (oiet nion& *o% at least 19:3 on.a$,

Pakistan e+an a poli)y o! instu%entali6in+ sla%ist Pas"tun %ilitias to pose)ute its

!oei+n poli)y oe)ties in A!+"anistan .it" ayin+ intensity o! inole%ent&1:

13 "e %ost $etaile$ a))ount o! t"is is +ien y Paeen (.a%i,India, Pakistan and the Secret Jihad% The

Co#ert ar in +ashmir, '()*&//6;Don$onE Routle$+e, 200:


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Clealy, t"e linea%ents o! Pakistan7s A!+"anistan poli)y pe$ate t"e (oiet

inteention an$ %assie in!usion o! &(& an$ (au$i !un$s& "is is i%potant to note

e)ause Pakistanis o!ten opine t"at Pakistan .as a i)ti% o! ot" &(& e?ploitation to

pusue its inteests $uin+ t"e (oiet o))upation an$ y &(& aan$on%ent o! Pakistan

on)e t"e (oiets .it"$e.&18 Re+ettaly, %any &(& poli)y %akes an$ %ilitay

pesonnel ."o en+a+e .it" Pakistanis see% oliious to t"is "istoy as .ell&19

Pakistan intensi!ie$ t"ese a)tiities .it" a)tie suppot !o% t"e nite$ (tates,

(au$i Aaia, an$ ot"es !ollo.in+ t"e (oiet inasion& Pakistan a+ue$ !o )onsi$eale

&(& %ilitay assistan)e, )lai%in+ t"at Pakistan7s la+e-s)ale suppot o! t"e anti-(oiet

e!!ot .oul$ en$e it ulneale to (oiet %ilitay t"eat& uin+ t"is peio$ Pakistan

$a%ati)ally e?pan$e$ its a%e$ !o)es, poi$e$ t"e% .it" &(& .eapons syste%s an$,

un$e &(& !un$in+, !ut"e e?pan$e$ t"e )apailities o! its pe%ie intelli+en)e a+en)y,

t"e nte (ei)es ntelli+en)e ie)toate ;(


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PakistanE i! %ua"e$een in A!+"anistan )oul$ $e!eat a nu)lea-a%e$ supepo.e, ."y

)oul$ not a si%ila !o)e su))ee$ in n$ian-a$%inistee$ as"%i '"ile Pakistan7s

inteest in laun)"in+ an$ sustainin+ a +ueilla .a .it" n$ia e+an as ealy as t"e 1950s,

t"e %ua"e$een su))ess uoye$ Pakistan7s )on!i$en)e in t"e utility o! su)" .a in

as"%i&

(in)e Pakistan "a$ )on)lu$e$ t"at it )oul$ laun)" a %oe sustaine$ po?y )a%pai+n

in as"%i as oppose$ to episo$i) opeations it .as enale$ y anot"e i%potant

!a)to& Ky t"e 1980s, t"e nite$ (tates "a$ $ete%ine$ t"at Pakistan "a$ $eelope$ a

nu)lea .eapons )apaility& Militay ai$ to Pakistan )oul$ only e supplie$ t"ou+" a

pesi$ential )eti!i)ation t"ou+"out t"e latte yeas o! t"e anti-(oiet i"a$& Ky 1990,

Pesi$ent Kus" $e)line$ to )eti!y t"at Pakistan "a$ not passe$ a nu)lea t"es"ol$ an$

.as sue)t to %ilitay ai$ )uto!!& *o% t"at point on.a$, Pakistan assu%e$ t"at status

o! a )oet nu)lea po.e ."i)" .oul$ en$e any etaliatoy )onentional esponse to its

i"a$ ee-%oe )ostly&21

A t"i$ !a)to t"at pe%itte$ Pakistan to e?pan$ t"e s)ale an$ s)ope o! t"e as"%i

i"a$ .as t"e suplus o! attle-"a$ene$ i"a$is !o% t"e A!+"an )on!li)t an$ t"e

spa.lin+ in!astu)tue to po$u)e an$ tain ne. %ilitants t"at "a$ een $eelope$ to

suppot t"e A!+"an e!!ot& "us, .it" t"e .it"$a.al o! t"e (oiet nion !o%

A!+"anistan, Pakistan e$eploye$ %any o! t"ose %ua"e$een to t"e as"%i !ont an$

estalis"e$ tainin+ )a%ps in Pakistan an$ A!+"anistan to tain %ilitants !o t"e as"%i

t"eate&22

nitially, t"e as"%i insu+en)y $eelope$ in$i+enously in esponse to n$ia7s

%is%ana+e%ent o! t"e poin)e& (eeal +enuinely as"%ii %ilitant +oups !o%e$ in

20 A!+"anistan ee)ts t"e $e !a)to an$ $e ue o$e, t"e uan$ Dine, t"at sepaates Pakistan !o%

A!+"anistan& "e uan$ Dine .as $e%a)ate$ y t"e Kitis" in a teaty si+ne$ y t"e A!+"an ule,

A$u Re"%an "an, in 1893& A!+"anistan a+ues t"at t"e teaty .as si+ne$ un$e $uess an$!ut"e%oe t"at Pakistan .as not a su))esso state to t"e Kitis" Ra& As su)", A!+"ans a+ue t"at t"e

teaty is oi$& ntenational la. $oes not suppot t"e A!+"an position& (ee, a%on+ ot"es, Kanett R&Ruin, The Fragmentation of Afghanistan ;Ne. HaenE ale niesity Pess, 2002, The

ashington 8uarterl-, Iol& 32, No& 2 ;Apil 2009 Small ars and Insurgencies, Iol& 11,

No& 1, (pin+ 2000, pp& @9-81&


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esponse, so%e o! ."i)" enoye$ Pakistani suppot& As so%e o! t"ese in$i+enous +oups

e+an espousin+ in$epen$en)e at"e t"an union .it" Pakistan, an$ as seeal tune$

!o% iolen)e to.a$s politi)al a)tiis%, t"e ne. )oteie o! Pakistan an$ A!+"anistan-

ase$ +oups $ie)tly )o%pete$ .it" t"ese ol$e, %oe et"ni)ally as"%ii +oups& A!te

t"e into$u)tion o! t"ese !i+"tes un$e t"e nu)lea u%ella, %any in$i+enous, po-

in$epen$en)e as"%i insu+ents .ee eli%inate$ y Pakistan-ase$ +oup su)" as

Das"ka-e-aia an$ a a!t o! eoan$i +oups like Hakat-ul-Mua"i$een an$ Hakat-ul-

i"a$ sla%i& Ky t"e %i$-1990s, t"e )on!li)t "a$ een oe-un y seeal Pakistan-ase$

%ilitant +oups ."o .ee pose)utin+ Pakistan7s a+en$a o! .eakenin+ n$ia an$ .estin+

as"%i !o% it&23At pesent, only one set o! %ilitant +oups ae la+ely as"%ii in

et"ni)ity, Hi6ol-Mua"i$een an$ elate$ !a)tions su)" as al Ka$& All o! t"e ot"e +oups

ae $o%inate$ y Punais an$ Pas"tuns !o% Pakistan&24

"e %ost let"al o! t"ese %ilitant +oups ae a$"eents to t"e eoan$i an$ A"l-e-

Ha$it" intepetatie ta$itions& "ese +oups .ee an$ ae "ostile to t"e "eteo$o?,

syn)eti), (u!isti) !o% o! sla% pa)ti)e$ y as"%iis in t"e alley& "ese Pakistan-

ase$ %ilitant +oups sou+"t to !i+"t n$ian !o)es on e"al! o! sla%aa$, ut t"ey also

sou+"t to )onet as"%iis to t"ese %oe ot"o$o? intepetatie ta$itions& '"eeas

as"%ii in$i+enous %ilitant +oups .ee loat"e to $estoy t"ei sa)e$ s"ines, t"ese

!oei+n %ilitants s"o.e$ little )o%pun)tion aout $oin+ so&25

Moeoe, t"ese +oups also en+a+e$ in )onsi$eale e?)esses in pusuit o! t"ei

posyleti6atione!!ots, su)" as atta)kin+ papes t"at $e)line$ to pulis" t"ei popa+an$a

o e%ploy .o%en, t"o.in+ a)i$ on .o%en7s !a)es, $is)oua+in+ !a%ilies !o% sen$in+

23 (ee inter alia (.a%i,India, Pakistan and the Secret Jihad, pp& 1@3-18@: #ans, ="e as"%i

insu+en)yE As a$ as it +etsJ>Ai! a%alJ Shado! ar% The $ntold Stor- of Jihad in +ashmir

;KooklynE Melille House, 2009 in C& C"istine *ai an$ (u%it an+uly #$s& Treading on Hallo!ed ;round%

Counterinsurgenc- in Sacred Saces;Ne. okE O?!o$, 2008


11/37

t"ei +ils to s)"ool, insistin+ t"at !e%ales aan$on ta$itional as"%ii eilin+ pa)ti)es

in !ao o! 3ur5as an$ nika3 ;!a)e )oein+


12/37

A!+"anistan !ien$ly to sla%aa$, %u)" less a )oi$o to Cental Asia an$ !o%al

e)o+nition o! t"e uan$ Dine as t"e $e ue o$e& Pakistan e-opti%i6e$ an$ s"i!te$ its

patona+e to.a$s t"e ne.ly-e%e+ent alian an$, !o% 1994 t0 2001, Pakistan

poi$e$ %ilitay, $iplo%ati), an$ !inan)ial assistan)e to t"e Pas"tun alian

%oe%ent&30

"e alian also !aile$ to $elie %u)" o! ."at sla%aa$ "a$ "ope$ to

a))o%plis"& "e alian +oen%ent, ."ile ale to poi$e a "i+"ly )onteste$ !o% o!

se)uity, la)ke$ intenational le+iti%a)y an$ in)easin+ly e)a%e an intenational paia"

$ue to its in$ul+en)e in e%aassin+ a)tiities& #?a%ples o! su)" a)tiities in)lu$e$

$estoyin+ t"e Ka%iyan Ku$$"as, ali+nin+ .it" al La7i$a, an$ $a.in+ intenational

attention !o t"e %isteat%ent o! .o%en& Moeoe, t"e alian )ontinue$ to "ao

se)taian teoists an$ )i%inals t"at Pakistan .ante$ to pose)ute, $espite Pakistan7s

epeate$ eBuests t"at t"ey e e%an$e$ to Pakistani aut"oities&31

Oe ti%e, so%e o! Pakistanis se)uity elite e+an to see t"e alian %oe o! a

liaility t"an an asset !o Pakistan, espe)ially a!te 1998 ."en al La7i$a o+ani6e$ t"e

si%ultaneous atta)ks on t.o A%ei)an e%assies in enya an$ an6ania pupote$ly

!o% A!+"anistan& "e nite$ (tates etaliate$ y s"o.ein+ A!+"anistan an$ %istakenly

a suspe)t p"a%a)euti)al !a)toy in (u$an .it" )uise %issiles, ta+etin+ al La7i$a

!a)ilities nea "ost& "e stikes "elpe$ )onsoli$ate Mulla" O%a7s )o%%it%ent to Kin

Da$en $espite ealie eseations aout "is +uest& uin+ t"at stike, t"e Pakistan %ilitant

+oup, Hakat-ul Mua"e$een, sai$ t"at !ie o! its %e%es .ee kille$ ."o .ee tainin+

t"ee&32 '"ile $i!!een)es o! opinion e%e+e$ et.een t"e alian an$ so%e o!

Pakistan7s state+i) elites, t"e (epte%e 11, 2001 teoist atta)ks on t"e nite$ (tates

en$ee$ sla%aa$7s esi$ual suppot !o t"e alian untenale& 33Pakistan .as !a)e$

30

"is $is)ussion $a.s !o% C& C"istine *ai, =Pakistan7s Relations .it" Cental AsiaE s PastPolo+ue,>Journal of Strategic Studies, Iol& 31, No& 2 ;Apil 2008

Journal of Strategic Studies, Iol& 31, No& 2 ;Apil 2008Indian 9>ress;22 Au+ust, 1998


13/37

.it" t"e stak option o! aan$onin+ t"e% an$ oinin+ t"e .a on teois% o e)o%in+

t"e ta+et o! t"e sa%e&34

As is .ell-kno.n, Pakistan7s -tun on t"e alian appeas to "ae een s"ot-

lie$&35(o%e analysts, su)" as A"%e$ Ras"i$, postulate t"at Pakistan e)o%%itte$ itsel!

to t"e alian in li+"t o! peilous &(& $e)isions in A!+"anistan in)lu$in+E pe%ittin+ t"e

Not"en Allian)e to take aul $espite assuan)es to t"e )ontayJ elyin+ upon

Not"en Allian)e .alo$s to poi$e se)uity ."ile t"e nite$ (tates %aintaine$ a li+"t

!ootpintJ !ailue to se)ue $esiale leels o! Pas"tun epesentation in t"e ne. intei%

+oen%entJ an$ un$e-epesentation o! Pas"tuns in t"e anks an$ o!!i)e )ops o! t"e

poli)e an$ a%y& %potantly, Pakistan elieesFo at least )lai%sFt"at t"ese

)on$itions still "ol$ $espite %assie i%poe%ents& Ot"e !a)tos t"at %otiate

Pakistan7s poli)ies to.a$s t"e A!+"an alian an$ A!+"anistan in)lu$e t"e state$ $esie

in 2005 t"at t"e nite$ (tates s"oul$ step $o.n as NAO steps up, ."i)" .as

tanta%ount to t"e intenational )o%%unity .it"$a.in+& O! pati)ula )on)en is t"e

e?pan$e$ pesen)e o! n$ia t"ou+"out A!+"anistan as .ell as an an$ Cental Asia&

Pakistan assesse$ t"at soon A!+"anistan .oul$ e =aan$one$> a+ain y t"e intenational

)o%%unity, ut en$ee$ po-n$ian an$ anti-Pakistani&3@ (u)" t"inkin+ usti!ies

Pakistan7s sustaine$ )o%%it%ent to t"e A!+"an alian een ."ile it stu++les .it" an

33 espite epeate$ eBuests ;an$ in$ee$ pay%ents o! )as" an$ e"i)les< y (au$i Aaia, an$ late y

Pakistan, t"e alian e!use$ to "an$ oe Kin Da$en& n$ee$, ."ile t"e alian %ay "ae een $uiouso! Kin Da$en initially, t"e 1998 ( %issile stikes a+ainst "i% )e%ente$ t"e allian)e et.een alian

an$ al Lae$a lea$es"ip& "is elations"ip pesiste$ an$ sten+t"ene$ in suseBuent yeas puttin+

Pakistan in an ee-%oe $i!!i)ult position& Pakistan )a%e un$e ene.e$ !ie !o suppotin+ t"e alian

a!te t"ey $estoye$ t"e .ol$ "eita+e site, t"e Ka%iyan Ku$$"as in 2001& Repotes see .e)ke$

Ku$$"as,>77C 2e!s;2@ Ma)", 2001

35 (et" & ones, Pakistan7s an+eous a%e7, Sur#i#al49/1 ;(pin+ 200:< 15-32&

36 Ras"i$,0escent into Chaos, pp& 8@-91,240-2@1Jai$ '& Kano,=*i+"tin+ St"e ot"e .aS

)ounteinsu+en)y state+y in A!+"anistan, 2003- 2005,>Militar- "e#ie!, (ept-O)t, 200:&

"ttpE//usa)a)&a%y&%il/CAC2/MilitayReie./A)"ies/#n+lis"/MilitayReie.200:1031at00@&p$!&

"is also $a.s !o% nu%eous aut"o $is)ussions .it" &(& A%assa$os to A!+"anistan Roet *inn

;Ma)" 22, 2002-Noe%e 2:, 2003< an$ Ronal$ #& Neu%ann ;uly 2:, 2005-Apil 1@, 200:< an$ Dt&

en ai$ Kano ."o see$ as t"e )o%%an$e o! &(& !o)es in A!+"anistan et.een 2003 an$ 2005&
http://findarticles.com/p/search/?qa=David%20W.%20Barnohttp://findarticles.com/p/search/?qa=David%20W.%20Barnohttp://findarticles.com/p/search/?qa=David%20W.%20Barnohttp://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_5_87/http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_5_87/http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/MilitaryReview/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20071031_art006.pdfhttp://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/MilitaryReview/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20071031_art006.pdfhttp://findarticles.com/p/search/?qa=David%20W.%20Barnohttp://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_5_87/http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/MilitaryReview/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20071031_art006.pdf


14/37

in)ipient aleit in)"oate insu+en)y o! its o.n y !o)es sel!-$es)ie$ as =Pakistani

alian&>

sla%aa$ )ontinually e?pesses its )on)ens aout t"e e+ion a+ain ein+

=aan$one$> y t"e nite$ (tates an$ t"e intenational )o%%unity& A))o$in+ to t"is

po!esse$ )on)en, Pakistan .oies t"at t"e A!+"an alian .ill +o. in sten+t" !o%

t"ei su))ess!ul anBuis"in+ o! intenational !o)es, ente Pakistan an$ pose a t"eat to

t"e state& n so%e %easue, t"is state$ )on)en s"oul$ e ea$ .it" skepti)is%&

*ist, t"e A!+"an alian $oes not pose a $ie)t t"eat to Pakistan at t"is point, een

t"ou+" ele%ents o! t"e A!+"an alian "ae +o.n so%e."at in$epen$ent o! sla%aa$

as $e%onstate$ y *euay 2010 e)ent aest o! Mulla" Kaa$u in Pakistan& ;As

$is)usse$ elo., t"e Pakistan aeste$ "i% e)ause "e sou+"t a sepaate $ispensation

.it" Pesi$ent a6ai in$epen$ent o! sla%aa$7s eBuities


15/37


16/37

Ho.ee, Pakistan e)a%e een %oe a++essie !ollo.in+ t"e 1998 n$ian an$

Pakistani e)ipo)al nu)lea tests& t pus"e$ t"e enelope o! its asy%%eti) state+y y

laun)"in+ a li%ite$ in)usion in n$ian-a$%inistee$ as"%i to sei6e a s%all a%ount o!

teitoy in t"e a+il-as se)tos& Many analysts "ae a+ue$ t"at su)" a a6en

in)usion .oul$ "ae een unlikely e!oe 1998 an$ t"e attain%ent o! oet nu)lea

.eapons status&41

n t"at li%ite$ ai%s )on!li)t, o!ten e!ee$ to as =t"e a+il Con!li)t>, Pakistan

e%ploye$ t"e Not"en Di+"t in!anty $is+uise$ as )iilian ie+ula !i+"tes aiously

)alle$ razakarso %ua"e$een& t is likely t"at t"e C"ie! o! A%y (ta!! at t"e ti%e,

eneal Pee6 Mus"aa!, e+an plannin+ !o t"is opeation in t"e !all o! 1998 ."en

Pakistan7s t"en Pi%e Ministe Na.a6 ("ai! an$ n$ia7s t"en Pi%e Ministe Atal Ki"ai

Iapayee un$etook t"e "istoi)al =Da"oe Pea)e Po)ess&> "at po)ess )ul%inate$ in a

"istoi) isit to Da"oe y Iapayee in *euay 1999, ."o .as .i$ely .it"in an$

.it"out n$ia as a Hin$u nationalist& uin+ t"at isit, Iapayee supise$ t"e puli)s o!

ot" n$ia an$ Pakistan ."en "e !inally a))eptan)e o! t"e le+iti%a)y o! t"e Pakistani

state at an i%potant lan$%ak )o%%e%oatin+ Pakistan7s in$epen$en)e, t"e Mina-e-

Pakistan in Da"oe&42

'"ile Pakistan "a$ li%ite$ teitoial ai%s, t"e use o! t"e %ua"e$een )oe .as a

pat o! its $enial an$ $e)eption state+y t"at pus"e$ t"e enelope in Pakistan7s use o! lo.

intensity )on!li)t un$e t"e nu)lea u%ella&43a+il )ause$ so%e analysts to e)onsi$e

t"ei ealuation t"at nu)leai6ation o! t"e su)ontinent .oul$ "ae a staili6in+ i%pa)t& 44

Ho.ee, Ha+ety )onten$s t"at et.een 198: an$ 1990, n$ia e+an in)easin+ly teatin+ Pakistan like

a nu)lea po.e ot" $ue to Pakistan7s "ei+"ten$ nu)lea si+nalin+ an$ $ue to t"e .ay in ."i)"

'as"inton teate$ Pakistan is-T-is its nu)lea po+a%& (ee ein & Ha+ety, The conse5uences of

nuclear roliferation% lessons from South Asia;


17/37

a+il e?e%pli!ie$ ."at "as een )alle$ t"e =staility-instaility paa$o?&>45"e notion

tuns on t"e $ual assetions t"at nu)lea .eapons )an staili6e se)uity )o%petition

et.een t.o a$esaies an$ !oe)lose a %ao .a ."ile at t"e sa%e ti%e enalin+ i! not

pookin+ )on!li)t at t"e lo.e en$ o! t"e )on!li)t spe)tu% e)ause nu)lea .eapons

)on!e i%%unity a+ainst es)alation&4@

"e a+il )on!li)t un$es)oe$ t"e i%potan)e o! nu)lea .eapons to Pakistan7s

state+y in as"%i an$ n$ia an$ a%ply illustate$ t"e $estaili6in+ aspe)ts o!

nu)leai6ation o! t"e su)ontinent& n pati)ula, Pakistan7s possession o! t"ese .eapons

.as a )iti)al recondition t"at enale$ t"e plannin+ an$ e?e)ution o! a+il sin)e

nu)lea .eapons ostensily poi$e$ se)uity a+ainst a !ull-s)ale n$ian etaliation&4:"is

i%%unity "a$ t.o $i%ensions& *ist, Pakistan7s nu)lea assets $etee$ ot" n$ian

)onentional an$ nu)lea t"eats& (e)on$, t"ey .ee instu%ents y ."i)" Pakistan )oul$

+alani6e intenational inteention on its e"al! in t"e eent t"at t"e politi)al-%ilitay

)isis spun out o! )ontol& n$ia un$estoo$ an$ puli)ly a)kno.le$+e$ t"e alue o!

Pakistan7s state+i) assets as an enale o! lo. intensity )on!li)t&48Pakistan also )on)e$e$

t"is un$estan$in+ puli)lyE in Apil o! 1999, eneal Pee6 Mus"aa!, ."o .as t"en

C"ie! o! A%y (ta!!, announ)e$ t"at een t"ou+" nu)leai6ation en$ee$ la+e-s)ale

)onentional .as osolete, po?y .as .ee likely&49

44

*o a $is)ussion o! poponents o! t"is ie., see Neil oe)k,Maintaining 2uclear Sta3ilit-;Ne. ok,NE O?!o$ niesity Pess !o t"e ntenational nstitute !o (tate+i) (tu$ies, 199:


18/37

'"ile a+il %ay "ae een t"e !ist )onentional )on!li)t un$e t"e nu)lea

u%ella, t"e %ost a6en use o! asy%%eti) an$ po?y .a!ae in as"%i an$ eyon$

"appene$ a!te 1998, )onsistent .it" t"e notion t"at nu)leai6ation "as ot" enale$ i! not

e%ol$ene$ Pakistan7s use o! %ilitan)y& Atta)ks sin)e 1998 in)lu$e inter alia t"e 1999

De atta)k on a se)uity !o)es estalis"%ent )ollo)ate$ in Ne. el"i7s touist atta)tion,

t"e Re$ *otJ t"e 2001 M atta)k on t"e n$ian Palia%entJ t"e De %assa)e o! a%y

.ies an$ )"il$en in alu)"akJ aious o%in+s y De an$ a!!iliate$ +oups

t"ou+"out n$ia, in)lu$in+ t"e 200@ an$ 2008 atta)ks in Mu%ai& 50t .oul$ appea t"at

.it" t"e $eelop%ent o! !ist a )oet an$ t"en an oet nu)lea )apaility ;an$

)on)o%itant $eliey %eans t"is is a %isno%e as t"ey "ae !e. et"ni) as"%iis a%on+ t"ei anks an$

%ost $o not opeate e?)lusiely in as"%i& n$ee$ De an$ M "ae lon+ opeate$

t"ou+"out n$ia, an$ eoan$i +oups "ae in e)ent yeas e+un opeatin+ in Pakistan&

Kot" De an$ seeal eoan$i %ilitant +oups "ae also een opeatin+ in A!+"anistan

50 *ai a$an)e$ t"is a+u%ent in An+el Raasa et al& ="e Dessons o! Mu%ai,> Ran$ O))asional Pape,

2009& "ttpE//an$&o+/pus/o))asionalpapes/OP249/& (ee also *ai, =Dea$e-De$ i"a$ in Pakistan&>

51 "is se)tion $a.s !o% C& C"istine *ai, =Pakistani Attitu$es o.a$s Militan)y an$ (tate Responses

to Counte Militan)y,> .itten ."ile t"e aut"o .as a Du)e *ello. at t"e niesity o! 'as"in+ton in

2009& "is pape is !ot")o%in+ in an e$ite$ olu%e y a%es 'ell%an& C& C"istine *ai, ='"o Ae

Pakistan7s Militants an$ "ei *a%ilies> Terrorism and Political Studies in

Conflict and Terrorism, 2:;@< ;Noe%e/e)e%e 2004


19/37

a+ainst &(&, NAO, an$ A!+"an !o)es&52 n )ontast, ot"e =as"%ii +oups> ae

opeatin+ un$e t"e in!luen)e o! t"e sla%ist politi)al paty a%aat-e-sla%i su)" as al-

Ka$ an$ Hi6ul Mua"a$een, ."i)" ten$ to e )o%pise$ o! et"ni) as"%iis an$ "ae

etaine$ t"ei opeational !o)us upon as"%i&

Ot"e askai tan6ee%s "ae een ta$itionally se)taian in natue an$ in)lu$e t"e

anti-("ia Das"ka-e-"an+i ;De< an$ (ipa"-e-(a"aa Pakistan ;((P an$

."o "ae su))ess!ully estalis"e$ an a)"ipela+o o! %i)o-e%iates o! sharia .it"in

la+e s.at"es o! t"e Pas"tun elt& espite e)ent an$ popula )"aa)tei6ation o! t"e

e"eek-e-alian Pakistan ;P< in %onolit"i) te%s, analysts ae not in a+ee%ent t"at

t"e P "as t"e )o"eent )o%%an$ an$ )ontol t"at t"e %e$ia as)ies to it&

5@

n$ee$, t"e52 (ee C& C"istine *ai, =Ante)e$ents an$ %pli)ations o! t"e Noe%e 2008 Das"ka-e-aia Atta)k

pon Mu%ai,> testi%ony pesente$ e!oe t"e House Ho%elan$ (e)uity Co%%ittee, (u)o%%ittee

on anspotation (e)uity an$ n!astu)tue Pote)tion on Ma)" 11, 2009&

53 Many o! t"ese +oups "ae een pos)ie$ nu%eous ti%es only to e-e%e+e& Many no. opeate

un$e ne. na%es& "is essay uses t"e na%es ."i)" ae likely to e %ost !a%ilia to ea$es&

54 Maia% Aou Ga"a an$ Oliie Roy,Islamist 2et!orks% The Afghan&Pakistan Connection;Don$onE C&

Hust, 2004 (tu$ies in Con!li)t an$ eois%, 2: ;Noe%e/e)e%e 2004


20/37

%e$ia o!ten $es)ie t"e P as an u%ella o+ani6ation !o nealy all anti-Pakistan

sla%ist %ilitants in (out" an$ Not" 'a6iistan, Oak6ai, ua%, "ye, Mo"%an$,

Kaau an$ aa A$a%k"el tial e+ions as .ell as t"e settle$ $isti)ts o! (.at, Kune,

ppe i, Do.e i, Kannu, Dakki Ma.at, ank, Pes"a.a, ea s%ail "an,

Ma$an an$ o"at& n$ee$, %ilitants !o% t"ese aeas also )lai% to e a!!iliate$ .it" t"e

P& Ho.ee, Ra"i%ulla" usu!6ai, a lea$in+ Pakistani ounalist an$ e?pet on t"e

P, uis"es t"ese assetions an$ )onten$s t"at t"e o+ani6ation is "a$ly )o"eent,

%u)" less $is)ipline$&5:

ones an$ *ai a+ee& a.in+ !o% t"e .ok o! o"n ABuilla an$ ai$ Ron!el$t,

t"ey $es)ie t"e P7s )onstituent +oups as )o%pisin+ a syste% o! loose net.oks&58

"ese net.oks ten$ to e $ispese$ an$ ayin+ in si6eJ "o.ee, t"e aious no$es )an

)o%%uni)ate .it" ea)" ot"e an$, to so%e $e+ee, )oo$inate t"ei )a%pai+ns&

O!!i)ially t"e P )a%e into ein+ !o%ally in late 200:, ."en seeal Pakistani

%ilitant )o%%an$es announ)e$ t"at t"ey .ee opeatin+ un$e t"e anne o! t"e

e"eek-e-alian-e-Pakistan ;P o t"e Pakistani alian Moe%ent< un$e t"e

lea$es"ip o! Kaitulla" Me"soo$& ;Kaitulla" Me"soo$ suseBuently .as kille$ y a &(&

$one stike in Au+ust 2009&< Me"soo$ )lai%e$ %any allies, %ost o! ."o% sou+"t to

estalis" aious $e+ees o! sharia.it"in t"ei pesonal aeas o! opeations a)oss t"e

Pas"tun elt& n late *euay 2008, t.o $issi$ent )o%%an$es, Mulla" Na6i an$ Ha!i6

ul Ka"a$u, appeae$ to te%poaily set asi$e t"ei $i!!een)es .it" Kaitulla" Me"soo$

an$ !o+e$ t"e ("ua tte"a$-ul-Mua"i$en& "e allian)e .as s"ot-lie$ an$ )ollapse$

nealy s soon as it .as announ)e$&59

t"e len+t" an$ .i$t" o! t"e Pas"tun elt& "is "as ie. "as een uttesse$ y !iel$ inteie.s in

Pakistan in *euay an$ Apil, 2009&

57 Ra"i%ulla" usu!6ai, =A '"o7s '"o o! t"e nsu+en)y in Pakistan7s Not"-'est *ontie Poin)eE

Pat One Not" an$ (out" 'a6iistan,> eois% Monito Iolu%e, Iol& @, No& 18, (epte%e 22,2008& Aailale at "ttpE//...&a%esto.n&o+/po+a%s/+ta/sin+le/

t?ttne.sXttne.sYQ51@9Vt?ttne.sXa)kPi$YQ1@:Vno)a)"eQ1&

58 o"n ABuilla an$ ai$ Ron!el$t, e$s&,In Athena?s Cam% Prearing for Conflict in the Information

Age;(anta Moni)a, CAE RAN, 199:77C 2e!s, e)e%e 28, 200:& Aailale at
http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaffrelation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=463http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=5169&tx_ttnews[backPid]=167&no_cache=1http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=5169&tx_ttnews[backPid]=167&no_cache=1http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=5169&tx_ttnews[backPid]=167&no_cache=1http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaffrelation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=463http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=5169&tx_ttnews[backPid]=167&no_cache=1http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=5169&tx_ttnews[backPid]=167&no_cache=1


21/37

*ollo.in+ t"e $eat" o! Kaitulla" Me"soo$, P lea$es"ip announ)e$ a%i$st so%e

$is)o$ t"at Haki%ulla" Me"soo$ .oul$ su))ee$ "i%&@0"e P "as een supisin+ly

)o"eent un$e t"e lea$es"ip o! Haki%ulla" Me"soo$ an$ $uin+ "is tenue t"e P "as

a)tually intensi!ie$ its sui)i$e )a%pai+n a+ainst Pakistani se)uity an$ intelli+en)e

a+en)ies&@1(in)e "is assu%ption o! )ontol, t"e P7s )a%pai+ns a+ainst )iilian ta+ets

e)a%e ee %oe i)ious& "e P "as sin+le$ out ("ia an$ A"%e$is ."o ae

)onsi$ee$ =%una!iBueen> ;t"ose Musli%s t"at spea$ $is)o$ in t"e %%a< an$

=%uta$> ;liale to e kille$< espe)tiely& %potant (u!i s"ines "ae not een spae$

eit"e&@2 "is !o)us no $out e!le)ts Haki%ulla"7s lon+-ti%e asso)iation .it" t"e

se)taian teoist +oup, (ipa"-e-(a"aa-e-Pakistan&@3

Ho.ee, pio to t"e o!!i)ial )onsoli$ation o! t"e P, seeal %ilitant

)o%%an$es )a%e to po%inen)e poi$in+ t"e ne)essay )on$itions !o t"e

!o%ali6ation o! t"e P net.ok& Nek Mo"a%%a$ 'a6i ;from the Ahmadzai Wazir

tribe in Wana, South Waziritsan) was perhaps the first Pakistani militant to assume

some degree of prominence. He battled the Pakistan army following its spring !!"

"ttpE//ne.s&)&)o&uk/2/"i/sout"asia/:1@3@2@&st%& Pakistan "as )onsi$ee$ Mauli Na6i an ally

e)ause "e "elpe$ oust o kill nu%eous 6eks in (out" 'a6iistan& He is )onsi$ee$ to e a $e$i)ate$

!oe o! &(& an$ NAO !o)es as "e $ispat)"es !i+"tes to A!+"anistan& ul Ka"a$a "as "a$ a nu%e o!$i!!een)es .it" Kaitulla" Me"soo$& t is not )lea ."at t"is allian)e %eans !o Pakistan o !o t"e &(&

an$ allies in A!+"anistan& (ee (aee$ ("a", =alian ials unite to !i+"t ( toop su+e,> The ;uardian,

Ma)" 3, 2009& Aailale at"ttpE//...&+ua$ian&)o&uk/.ol$/2009/%a/03/talian-pakistan-a!+"anistan-us-su+e&

60 Ga"i$ Hussein, =Haki%ulla" Me"su$ na%e$ as ne. Pakistan alean lea$e,> [email protected],

Au+ust 23, 2009& Aailale at"ttpE//...&ti%esonline&)o&uk/tol/ne.s/.ol$/asia/ati)le@80@809&e)e&

61 Pak nstitute !o Pea)e (tu$ies, =Pakistan (e)uity Repot 2009,> anuay 2009& Aailale at"ttpE//san-

pips&)o%/in$e?&p"pa)tionQaVi$Qpslist1,=Haki%ulla" Me"su$,>2e! ork Times ,Apil 29, 2010&

Aailale at

"ttpE//topi)s&nyti%es&)o%/topi)s/e!een)e/ti%estopi)s/people/%/"aki%ulla"%e"su$/in$e?&"t%lJ

=Pakistan Klast ("apens Con)en on alian,> Apil 1, 2010& Aailale at

"ttpE//...&ps&o+/ne.s"ou//%ilitay/an-une10/pakistan01-01&"t%l&

62

(in)e 2005, Pakistani %ilitants "ae laun)"e$ %oe t"an :0 sui)i$e atta)ks a+ainst (u!i s"ines killin+"un$e$s& Atta)ks "ae intensi!ie$ in e)ent yeas& Da"oe7s po%inent atta an Kak"s"Fpe"aps t"e

%ost i%potant (u!i s"ines in t"e Puna .as atta)ke$ in late une 2010& (ee O.ais o"i$, =n Pakistan,

%ilitant atta)ks on (u!i s"ines on t"e ise,> "e C"istian ()ien)e Monito, Noe%e 5, 2010&

Aailale at ...&)s%onito&)o%/&&&/n-Pakistan-%ilitant-atta)ks-on-(u!i-s"ines-on-t"e-ise.(aina

aenese, =(ui)i$e Ko%es (tike (u!i ("ine in Pakistan,> The 2e! ork Times, uly 1, 2010&Aailale at "ttpE//...&nyti%es&)o%/2010/0:/02/.ol$/asia/02pstan&"t%l&

63 Mansu "an Ma"su$, ='"o is Haki%ulla",> , A!-Pak C"annel, *oei+nPoli)y&)o%, Apil 29, 2010&

Aailale at "ttpE//a!pak&!oei+npoli)y&)o%/posts/2010/04/29/."ois"aki%ulla"&
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7163626.stmhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/03/taliban-pakistan-afghanistan-us-surgehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/03/taliban-pakistan-afghanistan-us-surgehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/03/taliban-pakistan-afghanistan-us-surgehttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6806809.ecehttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6806809.ecehttp://san-pips.com/index.php?action=ra&id=psr_list_1http://san-pips.com/index.php?action=ra&id=psr_list_1http://san-pips.com/index.php?action=ra&id=psr_list_1http://san-pips.com/index.php?action=ra&id=psr_list_1http://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/people/m/hakimullah_mehsud/index.htmlhttp://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/jan-june10/pakistan_01-01.htmlhttp://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/jan-june10/pakistan_01-01.htmlhttp://www.csmonitor.com/.../In-Pakistan-militant-attacks-on-Sufi-shrines-on-the-risehttp://www.csmonitor.com/.../In-Pakistan-militant-attacks-on-Sufi-shrines-on-the-risehttp://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/04/29/who_is_hakimullahhttp://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/04/29/who_is_hakimullahhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7163626.stmhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/03/taliban-pakistan-afghanistan-us-surgehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/03/taliban-pakistan-afghanistan-us-surgehttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6806809.ecehttp://san-pips.com/index.php?action=ra&id=psr_list_1http://san-pips.com/index.php?action=ra&id=psr_list_1http://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/people/m/hakimullah_mehsud/index.htmlhttp://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/jan-june10/pakistan_01-01.htmlhttp://www.csmonitor.com/.../In-Pakistan-militant-attacks-on-Sufi-shrines-on-the-risehttp://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/04/29/who_is_hakimullah


22/37

South Waziristan offensi#e at $.S. urging. He fought the Pakistan Army to a standstill

and compelled the army to ratify its own defeat with a peace deal, known as the Shakai

Accord. %he agreement was finalized on terms that were entirely set by &ek 'ohammad.

(or eample, the signing ceremony was held in Shakai, his own stronghold. *n the

occasion, the ++thorps ommander, -t. en Safdar Hussain, publicly garlanded &ek

'ohammad. %his e#ent was hea#ily co#ered in Pakistan/s media and thus conferred

upon him widespread legitimacy that he did not en0oy before the accord. @4 Kaitulla"

Me"su$ ose to po%inen)e a!te Nek Mo"a%%a$7s $eat" ."en "e also !o)e$ t"e

Pakistan a%y to )on)e$e $e!eat an$ ati!y it as t"e Sararogha agreement in (ebruary

!!1.21

3n &orth Waziristan, Hafiz ul 4ahadur became the amir 5commander) of the

Pakistani militancy there. Howe#er, 4ahadur is now a pro6Pakistan militant commander

opposed to Hakimullah and his predecessor and focuses eclusi#ely upon $S and &A%*

forces in Afghanistan. 3n fact, during the winter of !!76!!8, 4ahadur refused to

cooperate with 4aitullah 'ehsud when the latter was under attack by the Pakistan army.

4ahadur warned 4aitullah against fighting the Pakistan security forces in 9azmak 5&orth

Waziristan). Subse:uently, 4ahadur signed a peace accord with the Pakistan security

forces. He remains opposed to Hakimullah and his organization/s targeting of Pakistani

ci#ilians as well as defense and intelligence personnel.@@

As t"e aoe $is)ussion su++ests, seeal %ilitant e%e+e$ .ell e!oe t"e

Pakistan alian !o%ally announ)e$ its e?isten)e un$e Kaitulla" Me"su$7s lea$es"ip&

A+ualy, t"e aious %ilitant %oe%ents in Pakistan e+an to +ain po%inen)e

)oin)i$ent .it" o een pe)ipitate$ y t"e Pakistani %ilitay opeations in *AA at

t"e u+in+ o! t"e nite$ (tates& (eeal Pakistani analysts )onten$ t"at t"e onset o! &(&

stikes in *AA !ist y )onentional ai plat!o%s an$ late y un-%anne$ aeial

64(ee inteie. .it" Ra"i%ulla" usu!6ai aout t"is in)i$ent aailale atFrontline% "eturn of the Tali3an,

O)toe 3, 200@&Aailale at "ttpE//...&ps&o+/.+"/pa+es/!ontline/talian/%ilitants/%o"a%%e$&"t%l&

65s%ael "an, =Kaitulla" Me"su$, Pakistan7s i++est $ile%%a,>The 0a!n,e)e%e 31, 200:& Aailale

at "ttpE//...&$a.n&)o%/200:/te?t/nat10&"t%&

66Ra"i%ulla" usu!6ai,=A '"o7s '"o o! t"e nsu+en)y in Pakistan7s Not"-'est *ontie Poin)eE

Pat One Not" an$ (out" 'a6iistan,> Terrorism Monitor


23/37

e"i)les ;$ones< )ataly6e$ t"e insu+en)y&@:(pe)i!i)ally, t"ey pinpoint t"e O)toe 200@

&(& $one stikes in a%a$ola, Kaau to eli%inate Ay%an al-Ga.a"ii in an al La7i$a-

a!!iliate$ %a$assa" in C"in+ai illa+e in Kaau as t"e %ost i%potant eent t"at

spa.ne$ t"e sui)i$e atta)ks a+ainst se)uity !o)es in *AA an$ N'*P&@8

"is %a$assa" in C"in+ai .as un y t"e e"eek-e-Na!a6-e-("aiat-e-

Mo"a%%a$ ;N(M The Times, Apil 1:,

2009& Aailale at "ttpE//...&ti%esonline&)o&uk/tol/ne.s/.ol$/asia/ati)le5:55490&e)e&

68 %tia6 ul, The Al 8aeda Connection% The Tali3an and Terror in Pakistan?s Tri3al Areas ;Don$onE

Pen+uin/Iikin+, 2009, pp& 95-9@ Pakistane!ense&)o%, May 11, 200@& Aailale at"ttpE//...&$e!en)e&pk/!ou%s/state+i)-

+eopoliti)al-issues/2:45-pa!-pesonnel-uste$-assasination-atte%pt&"t%l&(ee also Kill Ro++io,

=A!te%at" o! t"e Kaau Aistike,> The 1ong ar Journal, O)toe 31, 200@& Aailale at

"ttpE//...&lon+.aounal&o+/a)"ies/200@/10/a!te%at"o!t"ea&p"p&
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7975871.stmhttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5755490.ecehttp://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/pakistan/2006/pakistan-061108-rferl01.htmhttp://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rs21584.pdfhttp://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rs21584.pdfhttp://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/2745-paf-personnel-busted-assasination-attempt.htmlhttp://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/2745-paf-personnel-busted-assasination-attempt.htmlhttp://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/2745-paf-personnel-busted-assasination-attempt.htmlhttp://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/2745-paf-personnel-busted-assasination-attempt.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7975871.stmhttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5755490.ecehttp://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/pakistan/2006/pakistan-061108-rferl01.htmhttp://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rs21584.pdfhttp://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/2745-paf-personnel-busted-assasination-attempt.htmlhttp://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/2745-paf-personnel-busted-assasination-attempt.html


24/37

su!a)e$ in aeas t"at "a$ peiously een pea)e!ul, su)" as Mo"%an$ a+en)y, Oak6ai,

an$ ua%& "ey also e%e+e$ in t"e !ontie aeas o! Kannu, ank, o"at, Dakki

Ma.a, ea s%il "an, an$ (.at& "ou+"out t"e su%%e o! 200:, t"e *ontie Cops

an$ t"e *ontie Constaulay attle$ t"e Pakistani %ilitants asso)iate$ .it" t"e N(M,

."i)" sei6e$ t"e (.at Ialley in late O)toe&:0

Militant +oups un$e aious lo)al lea$es "ae e!!e)tiely e?ploite$ so)io-

e)ono%i) +iean)eJ !ailues o! t"e state to poi$e sei)es su)" a))ess to ule o! la.

an$ usti)eJ an$ !ustation .it" t"e )ouption-ien )olonial-ea +oenan)e stu)tues

in t"e *AA& "e Pakistani alian in (.at epote$ly pusue$ a syste% o! e$istiutie

usti)e ."eein t"ey sei6e$ t"e lan$s o! .ealt"y lan$o.nes ;"ans< an$ e.a$e$

lan$less peasant ."o een si+ne$ up to suppot t"e Pakistan alian a)tie t"ee&:1

(i%ilaly, %ilitant )o%%an$es in t"e *AA "ae pessue$ t"e politi)al a+ents to

poi$e sei)es .it"out eBuisite pay%ent o! ies& "ey "ae estalis"e$ !un)tional

i! $a)onian poli)e !un)tions an$ $ispute esolution& "e %u)"-%ali+ne$ 5azi )outs

;)outs un y sla%ist uists< ."i)" .ee to e estalis"e$ in (.at eBuie$ t"e a$$ition

o! ne. 5azis;sla%i) uists< s"oul$ t"ei )ase loa$ e?)ee$ 150 )ases& No su)" poision

e?ists in t"e %ainstea% )outs& "e Pakistani alian also estalis"e$ =loe %aia+e

ueaus> to sole%ni6e =loe %aia+es&> "is "as t"e a$anta+e o! appealin+ to yout"

."o esent !o)e$ %aia+es an$ a%elioates t"e e)ono%i) eBuie%ent o! youn+ %en to

pay la+e i$e pi)es&:2

n Apil 2009, ne.s epots assete$ t"e aial o! t"e =Punai alian,>

e!een)in+ t"e aious %ilitant +oups ens)on)e$ in t"e Puna, t"e %ost populate$

poin)e&:3espite its ostensile e)ent )oina+e, t"e te% =Punai alian> "as a lon+

70 C& C"istine *ai, =Pakistan Doses (.at to Do)al alian,> Terrorism Focus, 4;3:< ;200: The 2e! ork Times, uly

2:, 2009& Aailale at "ttpE//...&nyti%es&)o%/2009/0:/28/.ol$/asia/28s.at&"t%l&Also see (ata

"an,=%peialis%, eli+ion an$ )lass in (.at,>International Socialism,ssueE 123, une 24, 2009& "an.as e?pan$in+ upon an ealie ati)le, =Ke"in$ t"e Cisis in (.at,> The 2e!s,,Noe%e 2:, 2008,

aailale at"ttpE//...&k"ye.at)"&)o%/!ou%s/s"o.t"ea$&p"p2295-p$ate-on-(.atZ/pa+e48& *o a

i+oous )ounteailin+ ie. see *a"at a, =No Class 'a in (.at,> The 2e!s, e)e%e 18, 2008&

Aailale at "ttpE//...&k"ye.at)"&)o%/!ou%s/s"o.t"ea$&p"p2295-p$ate-on-(.atZ/pa+e49&72Aut"o !iel$.ok in Pakistan in *euay an$ Apil 2009 ;Pes"a.a, sla%aa$, aa)"i, Da"oe< an$

Au+ust 2010 ;Pes"a.a, Min+oa, sla%aa$, Da"oe


25/37

an$ )o%ple? "istoy& (in)e 2009, it "as a)Buie$ si+ni!i)ant politi)al i%potan)e& :4Many

Pas"tuns suppot t"e use o! t"e te% to un$es)oe t"at Pakistan7s insu+en)y is not

=Pas"tun> in essen)e& Ho.ee, %any Punais ee)t t"e te% !o t"e sa%e eason as

so%e Punais pe!e to attiute t"e t"eat to Pakistan to t"e =Pas"tun ot"e,> ."o ae

o!ten )"aa)tei6e$ in steeotypi)al te%s su)" as =un)iili6e$,> =.a-like,> an$

=iolent,> a%on+ ot"es&:5

Pakistan7s politi)al lea$es "ae also sou+"t to $eploy t"e )ontoesy suoun$in+

t"e te% !o politi)al +ain& Dea$es o! t"e Pakistan Musli% Dea+ue-Na.a6 ;PMD-N .as tanta%ount to )on$e%nin+ o! t"e

people o! Puna&:@

'"ile it is te%ptin+ to ie. t"is as a ne. t"eate o een as a !utue lo)us o!

aliani6ation in t"e "eatlan$ o! t"e Puna, t"ese sites o! %ilitan)y a)oss Pakistan ae

inte-elate$& Puna-ase$ +oups su)" as t"e eoan$i Das"ka-e-"an+i ;De< an$

ais"-e-Mo"a%%a$ ;M< ae )o%ponents o! t"e P an$ )on$u)t atta)ks on e"al! o! t"e

P& n !a)t, t"e so-)alle$ Punai alian +oups !o% t"e a)k-one o! t"e P an$

"ae playe$ an i%potant ole in atta)kin+ (u!i, ("ia, A"%e$i an$ ot"e )iilian ta+ets in

t"e Puna in pati)ula&::

"ttpE//...&nyti%es&)o%/2009/04/14/.ol$/asia/14puna&"t%l& (ee also Hassan Aas, Se!inin+ t"e

Punai alian Net.ok,>CC (entinel, Iolu%e 2, No& 4, ;Apil 2009

77Kill Ro++io, =(ui)i$e o%e kills @0 at %osBue in Pakistan\s not".est,> The 1ong ar Journal,

Noe%e 5, 2010& Aailale at
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/world/asia/14punjab.htmlhttp://www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/http://www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/world/asia/14punjab.htmlhttp://www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/


26/37

n a$$ition to t"e aoe note$ Pakistani +oups, Pakistan also "osts ele%ents o! t"e

A!+"an alian, .it" shurasin Luetta, Pes"a.a, an$ aa)"i&:8 "e A!+"an alian

e%ain !o)use$ on oustin+ !oei+n !o)es in A!+"anistan, oet"o.in+ t"e a6ai

e+i%e, an$ estoin+ t"ei ole in +oenin+ A!+"anistan& Pakistani teitoy is also use$

y al La7i$a& Al La7i$a opeaties ae kno.n to esi$e in Not" an$ (out" 'a6iistan

an$ Kaau a%on+ ot"e aeas in t"e Pas"tun elt& Moeoe, %any al La7i$a opeaties

;su)" as Au Guai$a", "ali$ ("eik" Mo"a%%a$ a%on+ nu%eous ot"es< "ae een

aeste$ in Pakistani )ities&:9

(in)e late 2001 an$ 2002, %any o! Pakistan7s %ilitant +oups pati)ulaly t"ose

o! eoan$i a)k+oun$ "ae splintee$ o "ae eoiente$ in te%s o! ta+ets an$

ta)ti)s& Many o! t"e eoan$i +oups ae ti+"tly allie$ to t"e A!+"an an$ Pakistan

alian an$ ae in)easin+ly ai%in+ t"ei esou)es at t"e Pakistani state een t"ou+"

so%e ele%ents .it"in t"ese sa%e +oups )ontinue to enoy aious leels o! !o%al an$

in!o%al state suppot& "ei ta+ets in)lu$e$ Pesi$ent Mus"aa! as .ell as ot"e "i+"-

alue %ilitay an$ )iilian lea$es& Al La7i$a lea$es )ontinue to opeate an$ plan atta)ks

!o% t"e tial aeas, in)lu$in+ Ay%an al-Ga.a"ii an$ Au al-a6i$& Re)ent e?e)ute$

an$ pe-e%pte$ atta)ks attest to t"ese linka+es ;su)" as inter alia t"e !oile$ 2010

#uopean atta)k planne$ in Not" 'a6iistan, t"e $isupte$ plan to atta)k &(& an$

e%an ta+ets in 200:, t"e pee%pte$ tansatlanti) plot in 200@ as .ell as t"e su))ess!ul

uly 2005 atta)k in Don$on *euay 2@, 2009& Aailale at

"ttpE//lein&senate&+o/ne.soo%/elease&)!%i$Q308:40J an at6, =ates (ays Militant (an)tuaies

Pose Ki++est A!+"anistan "eat,>7loom3erg 2e!s, Ma)" 1, 2009& Aailale at"ttpE//...&loo%e+&)o%/apps/ne.spi$Q20@0108:Vsi$Qae"%lRU+i2oVe!eQ"o%eJ Kanett R&

Ruin& =(ain+ A!+"anistan,>Foreign Affairs, anuay/*euay 200:& Aailale at"ttpE//...&!oei+na!!ais&o+/200:0101!aessay8@105-p0/anett--uin/sain+-a!+"anistan&"t%l&

79 (ee )o%%ents %a$e y National ntelli+en)e ie)to o"n Ne+oponte )ite$ in =Al-Lae$a euil$in+7

in Pakistan,>77C 2e!s @nline, anuay 12, 200:& Aailale at

"ttpE//ne.s&)&)o&uk/2/"i/sout"asia/@2543:5&st%J & Alan onsta$t, &(&-Pakistan Relations;'as"in+ton &C&E Con+essional Resea)" (ei)e, 2008


27/37

"e Pakistani polity .as late to e%a)e Pakistan7s )ounteteois% an$

)ounteinsu+en)y e!!ots& (in)e 200:, puli) opinion .ok in Pakistan $e%onstate$ t"at

Pakistanis +eneally an$ oe."el%in+ly suppote$ pea)e $eals .it" %ilitants an$

po!esse$ elie! t"at t"ey .oul$ se)ue pea)e, $espite )onsistent ei$en)e to t"e )ontay&

#Bually, Pakistanis e%aine$ oppose$ to t"e Pakistan a%y un$etakin+ %ilitay

o!!ensies a+ainst Pakistan7s o.n %ilitants& "ese ten$s e%aine$ %oe o less )onstant

until Apil o! 2009& Ho.ee, puli) opinion $a%ati)ally )"an+e$ )ouse in t"e late

spin+ 2009 ."en t"e alian oke t"ei =s"aia-!o-pea)e> $eal in (.at an$ oe-an

Kune& Pollin+ esults in May 2009 an$ uly 2009 su++est t"at t"e puli) e%aine$

oppose$ to pea)e $eals an$ .ee in)easin+ly suppotie o! %ilitay a)tion&81Pollin+ y

t"e Pe. *oun$ation in Apil 2010 !oun$ t"at so%e o! t"ese +ains %ay e slippin+& Pe.

!oun$ t"at ."ile %ost Pakistan e%ain .oie$ aout sla%ist e?te%is%, )on)ens "ae

.ane$ sin)e 2009& ;Ke)ause Pe.7s Buestions an$ a sa%plin+ appoa)" $i!!ee$ !o%

t"ose use$ y t"e ot"e polls )ite$ "eein, t"ese aious esults ae not sti)tly

)o%paale&


28/37

o!!i)ials as .ell as ounalists an$ analysts< oe seeal isits sin)e 2000 as .ell as

e?tensie intea)tions .it" &(& o!!i)ials aout Pakistan oe t"e sa%e peio$& Rea$es

alone )an $ete%ine ."et"e t"ey a))ept o ee)t t"ese aious )one)tues&

Pakistan7s intelli+en)e a+en)ies an$ a%y ten$ to se+%ent t"e )ounty7s %ilitant

%aket into a aiety o! +oups oe ."i)" t"e state "as ayin+ $e+ees o! )ontol&

Pakistan is .i$ely assu%e$ to .iel$ si+ni!i)ant in!luen)e oe t"e A!+"an alian,

in)lu$in+ t"e Not" 'a6iistan-ase$ net.ok o! alalu$in HaBBani& Pakistan e?ets t"is

)ontol y "ol$in+ alian !a%ilies "osta+e in Pakistan to ensue )o%plian)e& Ho.ee,

sin)e 2001, t"e A!+"an =alian> "ae )"an+e$ .it" t"e )onsistent tunoe o! %i$-leel

)o%%an$es&83

Ne. )o%%an$es ae less e"ol$en to Pakistan in pat e)ause o! t"ei a+eE t"ey

.ee )"il$en ."en t"e ( .as nutuin+ t"e alian in t"e %i$-1990s& Moeoe, t"e

tial ase an$ %ooin+s o! t"e A!+"an alian ae also )"an+in+& 84Pakistan is stu++lin+

to )ultiate in!luen)e a%on+ t"e eolin+ A!+"an alian ele%ents een ."ile it seeks to

)ontol ele%ents o! Mulla" O%a7s =Luetta ("ua&> ;'"ile t"e A!+"an lea$es"ip

)oun)il etains t"is %onike, its key lea$es "ae lon+ taken up esi$en)e else."ee su)"

as aa)"i&85< Pakistan .oies t"at %e%es o! t"e Luetta ("ua %ay seek a sepaate

$ispensation .it" A!+"an Pesi$ent a6ai t"at $oes not e)o+ni6e Pakistan7s eBuities&

#?e%pli!yin+ Pakistan7s e!!ots to )ounte su)" %oes, Pakistan )aptue$ Mulla"

Kaa$a in *euay 2010 e)ause "e .as ne+otiatin+ .it" a6ai in$epen$ently o!

sla%aa$&8@

&(& analysts ten$ to eliee t"at Pakistani a+en)ies also "ae a easonaly ti+"t

)ontol oe t"e Das"ka-e-aia& "at sai$, De "as $eelope$ po?ies in n$ia

83 *o an e?)ellent e?position o! "o. t"e A!+"an alian "ae eole$, see Antonio iusto66i,+oran,

+alashniko#, and 1ato% The 2eo&Tali3an Insurgenc- in Afghanistan //&//*;Ne. okE

Colu%ia/Hust, 2008 A!+"anistan Analysts Net.ok, une 24, 2010&Aailale at "ttpE//...&aan-a!+"anistan&o+/uploa$s/[email protected]"ealean-*NAD&p$!&

85 Ali & C"isti, ="e aa)"i Poe)t,> *oei+nPoli)y&Co%, Noe%e 3, 2010& Aailale at

"ttpE//...&!oei+npoli)y&)o%/ati)les/2010/11/03/ispakistan!inally)a)kin+$o.nonalBae$a&

86 ean Nelson an$ Ken *a%e, =Ha%i$ a6ai "el$ se)et talks .it" Mulla" Kaa$a in A!+"anistan,>

The Telegrah,Ma)" 1@, 2010& Aailale at

"ttpE//...&tele+ap"&)o&uk/ne.s/.ol$ne.s/asia/a!+"anistan/:45:8@1/Ha%i$-a6ai-"el$-se)et-talks-

.it"-Mulla"-Kaa$a-in-A!+"anistan&"t%l&
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/7457861/Hamid-Karzai-held-secret-talks-with-Mullah-Baradar-in-Afghanistan.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/7457861/Hamid-Karzai-held-secret-talks-with-Mullah-Baradar-in-Afghanistan.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/7457861/Hamid-Karzai-held-secret-talks-with-Mullah-Baradar-in-Afghanistan.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/7457861/Hamid-Karzai-held-secret-talks-with-Mullah-Baradar-in-Afghanistan.html


29/37

;pin)ipally t"ou+" t"e n$ian Mua"e$een< an$ "as )ultiate$ lo+isti)al ases in

Kan+la$es", (i Danka, t"e Mal$ies, an$ Nepal ;a%on+ ot"e )ounties n$ia,> Terrorism Monitor Pakistan (e)uity Resea)" nit ;P(R< Resea)" Repot, Ka$!o$ nieisty,

*euay 2008, pp& 28-31& Aailale at

ttpE//spa)es&a$&a)&ukE8080/$o.nloa$/atta)"%ents/:48/esep1&p$!&
http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaffrelation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=240http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaffrelation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=240http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaffrelation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=240http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37056&cHash=b2f2164427http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37056&cHash=b2f2164427http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaffrelation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=240http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37056&cHash=b2f2164427


30/37

t"e +asp o! t"e state as ei$en)e$ y t"ei sustaine$ atta)ks .it"in Pakistan& "e %ilitay

an$ t"e ( "ae tie$ to %ana+e its )o%ple? .e o! allie$ !oes y )ultiatin+ o

a++aatin+ $isa+ee%ents a%on+ )o%%an$es& *o e?a%ple, Pakistan )ultiate$ Mulla"

Ka"a$u an$ Mauli Na6i to )ounte t"e anti-state ele%ents o! t"e P +eneally an$

Kaitulla" Me"su$ an$ Haki%ulla" Me"soo$ in pati)ula&91 Pakistan "as also tie$

en+a+in+ an$ pla)atin+ t"e %ilitants t"ou+" aious pea)e $eals ."ile at ot"e ti%es, it

"as sout" to $e!eat t"e% %ilitaily .it" ayin+ $e+ees o! su))ess oe $i!!ein+ ti%e

"oi6ons&92

n!otunately, t"e po+nosis !o Pakistan7s ailityF%u)" less .illFto $e+a$e

t"ese +oups in any si+ni!i)ant .ay is not positie& espite Pakistan7s see%in+ $e$i)ation

to )o%atin+ so%e ele%ents o! t"e P ."i)" ta+et t"e state, Pakistan .ill likely

e%ain unale to eli%inate een t"ose +oups it ie.s as t"e ene%y e)ause o! t"e

en$uin+ pole% o! oelappin+ %e%es"ip et.een t"e e"e%ently anti-state

)o%ponents o! t"e P an$ t"e ot"e eoan$i +oups t"at Pakistan still ie.s as assets

;e&+& M, t"e HaBBani net.ok, t"e A!+"an alian a%on+ ot"es< !o t"e anti)ipate$

!utue attle a+ainst n$ia, e it in n$ia o A!+"anistan&

S%staining the /iha&s

ien t"at Pakistan "as een ale to sustain nu%eous %ilitant +oups in t"e

sei)e o! aious )oet )a%pai+ns, it %ust enoy so%e $e+ee o! sustaine$ puli)

suppot een i! in s%all nu%es&93One possile eason !o Pakistan7s aility to sustain

t"is leel o! suppot !o aious %ilitant )a%pai+ns oe si? $e)a$es is t"e !a)t t"at i"a$

91 (ee Ra"i%ulla" usu!6ai, ="e #%e+en)e o! t"e Pakistani alian,> ane7s n!o%ation oup, 11

e)e%e 200:& Aailale ;.it" sus)iption< at ...8&anes&)o% an$ Ra"i%ulla" usu!6ai, =A

'"o7s '"o o! t"e nsu+en)y in Pakistan7s Not"-'est *ontie Poin)e& *o $etails aout t"e aious)o%%an$es see Caoline 'a$"a%san$ Colin Cook%an, =*a)es o! Pakistan\s Militant Dea$esE n-

ept" Po!iles o! Mao Militant Co%%an$es,> Cente !o Ne. A%ei)an Po+ess, uly 22, 2009&Aailale at "ttpE//...&a%ei)anpo+ess&o+/issues/2009/0:/talianlea$es&"t%l&

92 "ese $eals an$ %ilitay e!!ots ae $etaile$ e?tensiely in ones an$ *ai, Counteinsu+en)y in

Pakistan, pp& 33-84&

93 "ee ae !e. oust stu$ies o! t"e puli)7s suppot !o %ilitan)y an$ none t"at ta)k it oe ti%e& *o

so%e peli%inay !in$in+s, see C& C"istine *ai, Clay Ra%say, an$ (tee ull =Pakistani Puli)

Opinion on e%o)a)y, sla%ist Militan)y, an$ Relations .it" t"e &(&,> ;'as"in+ton &C&E

(P/PPA, anuay :, 2008


31/37

as a )on)ept o! eli+iously san)tione$ )on!li)t is ol$ an$ en$uin+ in (out" Asia

"istoi)ally an$ in t"e aeas t"at ae no. Pakistan an$ A!+"anistan spe)i!i)ally& Ayes"a

alal )onten$s t"at Kalakot, lo)ate$ in t"e $isti)t o! Manse"a in Pakistan7s Not".est

*ontie Poin)e, is t"e =epi)ente o! i"a$> in (out" Asia& t .as t"ee t"at (ayyi$

A"%a$ o! Rai Keeilly ;1:8@-1831< an$ ("a" s%ail ;1::9-1831 .ee slain !i+"tin+ t"e (ik"s in

May o! 1831& ()"olas )onsi$e t"is t"e only +enuine i"a$ to estalis" Musli%

supe%a)y in (out" Asia& "ei +aesites "ae sin)e e)o%e sa)e$ sites t"at ae

intet.ine$ .it" ot" i"a$ an$ )olonial esistan)e& alal .ites o! t"ese +aesitesE =o

t"is $ay Kalakot ."ee t"e (ayyi$ lies uie$ is a spot t"at "as een +eatly eee$, not

only y %ilitants in )onte%poay Pakistan, so%e o! ."o% "ae set up tainin+ )a%ps

nea Kalakot, ut also y anti-)olonial nationalists ."o intepete$ t"e %oe%ent as a

pelu$e to a i"a$ a+ainst t"e Kitis" in n$ia&>94

"is asso)iation o! Kalakot .it" t"e i"a$ in t"e 1990s .as %oili6e$ ."en

Pakistan estalis"e$ %ilitant tainin+ )a%ps t"ee !o t"ose +oups aise$ to opeate in

as"%i an$ t"e est o! n$ia&95

Moe +eneally, popula )ons)iousness in Pakistan is ste.n .it" =)olle)tie %yt"s

an$ le+en$s o! i"a$ ase$ on sele)tie epesentation o! "istoy&> 9@"e Pakistani state

itsel! "as nutue$ a puli) $is)ouse t"at is anti-n$ia, anti-Hin$u, po-i"a$ usin+

Pakistani puli) an$ %ilitay s)"ools, a aiety o! %e$ia, as .ell as puli) )eleations o!

national eents&9:"us, it see%s likely t"at one o! t"e easons ."y Pakistan "as een ale

to su))ess!ully sustain aious po?y .as is t"at it "as %akete$ t"e% as i"a$, ."i)"

enoys )onsi$eale le+iti%a)y in Pakistan an$ else."ee in (out" Asia&

94 Ayes"a alal,Partisans of Allah;Da"oeE (an+-e-Meel, 2008


32/37

n$ee$, )onsi$eale pollin+ .ok $e%onstates t"at Pakistanis in$ee$ e?"iit so%e

$e+ee o! suppot o! $i!!eent kin$s o! %ilitan)y& n )onun)tion .it" a)o ("apio an$

Neil Mal"ota, t"e aut"o sueye$ a national sa%ple o! Pakistan7s !ou poin)es usin+

!a)e-to-!a)e inteie.s o! @,000 pesons in 2009& 'e !oun$ t"at %ilitai6e$ i"a$ sustains

)onsi$eale suppot a%on+ Pakistanis& 'e aske$ espon$ents t"e !ollo.in+ BuestionE

=(o%e people say i"a$ is a pesonal stu++le !o i+"teousness& Ot"es say i"a$ is

pote)tin+ t"e Musli% %%a" t"ou+" .a& '"at $o you t"ink> "e pluality ;44&@

pe)ent< in$i)ate$ t"at t"ey eliee$ t"at =i"a$ is ot" a pesonal stu++le !o

i+"teousness an$ pote)tin+ t"e Musli% %%a" t"ou+" .a&> Nealy eBual nu%es o!

espon$ents ;one in !ou< in$i)ate$ t"at =i"a$ is solely a pesonal stu++le !o

i+"teousness> o t"at =i"a$ is solely pote)tin+ t"e Musli% %%a" t"ou+" .a&>

;(o%e si? pe)ent in$i)ate$ t"at t"ey $i$n7t kno. an$ anot"e 1 pe)ent $e)line$ to

ans.e&< Clealy a la+e %aoity o! Pakistanis e%a)e %ilitant $i%ensions o! i"a$ in

pin)iple&98;(ee *i+ue 1 elo.&0

1Insert Fig%re - a'o%t Here2

#en a%on+ t"ose Musli%s ."o e%a)e %ilitant notions o! i"a$, t"ee is so%e

$eate as to ."o "as t"e pope aut"oity to $e)lae %ilitant i"a$ e it a Musli%

+oen%ent o an in$ii$ual o ot"e non-state a)to& ;"is is one eason ."y so%e

Musli%s ee)t Osa%a Kin Da$in7s ao+ate$ i+"t to $e)lae i"a$&< 'e aske$

espon$ents ."o t"ey eliee )an use %ilitay !o)e to pote)t a Musli% )ounty o

Musli% %%a" in t"e na%e o! i"a$ e it a Musli% state/+oen%ent, in$ii$uals an$

non-state o+ani6ations o ot"& "e pluality ;43 pe)ent< eliee$ t"at t"is is a

peo+atie o! t"e state& "e ne?t la+est +oup ;35 pe)ent< t"ou+"t t"at ot" +oen%ent

an$ non-+oen%ent a)tos )an $o so& (een pe)ent eliee$ t"at only non-state a)tos

)oul$ $o so& "is su++ests t"at 42 pe)ent eliee t"at non-state a)tos )an le+iti%ately

inoke i"a$ to pote)t Musli%s& ;Anot"e 1@ pe)ent eit"e $i$ not kno. ;14 pe)ent< o

$i$ not ans.e ;2 pe)ent


33/37

Ostensily, $i!!eent ie.s aout t"e natue o! i"a$ ;pesonal, %ilitay, ot"< %ay

e asso)iate$ .it" ayin+ ie.s aout ."o "as t"e i+"t to .a+e i"a$ ;in$ii$uals,

states, ot"


34/37

Ho.ee, ."en espon$ents .ee t"en aske$ ."et"e spe)i!i) types o! atta)ks .ee

so%eti%es o nee usti!ie$, suppot !o so%e %ilitant a)tions .as )lealy ei$en)e

a%on+ s%all ut i%potant %inoities& *o e?a%ple, @4 pe)ent sai$ =Atta)ks )on$u)te$

a+ainst +oen%ent institutions ;like t"e national Palia%ent in el"i an$ state

asse%lies .ee nee usti!ie$ ."ile anot"e 15 pe)ent eliee$ t"at su)" atta)ks

.ee =so%eti%es usti!ie$&> '"ile @: pe)ent in$i)ate$ t"at =atta)ks in n$ia on !a%ilies

o! n$ian %ilitay pesonnel> .ee nee usti!ie$J 13 pe)ent sai$ t"ey .ee so%eti%es

usti!ie$& (i%ilaly, ."ile @8 pe)ent )on$e%ne$ =atta)ks )on$u)te$ a+ainst n$ian

ta+ets like su.ays, sto)k e?)"an+es, an$ touist sites,> anot"e 12 pe)ent sai$ t"ese

atta)ks .ee so%eti%es usti!ie$& "us on alan)e so%e."at %oe t"an one in ten

espon$ents t"ou+" t"ese atta)ks .ee usti!ie$ in so%e %easue&102

'"ile suppot !o spe)i!i) +oups opeatin+ a+ainst spe)i!i) ta+ets is lo. a%on+

espon$ents, %any Pakistanis eliee t"ei )ounty "as an oli+ation to pote)t Musli%s

in as"%i an$ else."ee, )onsistent .it" Pakistan7s national naatie ot" as t"e "o%e

o! (out" Asia7s Musli%s an$ an e?pli)it +oal o! =lieatin+ o))upie$ as"%i> !ont

n$ia& 'e aske$ espon$ents ."et"e t"ey a+ee$ o $isa+ee$ .it" t"e state%entE

=Pakistan "as a %oal oli+ation to pote)t Musli%s any."ee in (out" Asia&> (i?ty-si?

pe)ent a+ee$ ;3@[ ston+ly


35/37

Concl%sions an& I$lications

"is essay "as a+ue$ t"at Pakistan7s use o! %ilitan)y as a tool o! !oei+n poli)y is

not ne. an$, in !a)t, $ates a)k to t"e ealy .eeks o! state"oo$& Pakistan7s aility to !iel$

sustaine$ %ilitant )a%pai+ns .it" si+ni!i)ant $e+ees o! puli) suppot is likely tie$ to

t"e "istoi)al an$ so)ial %ilieus o! i"a$, ."i)" "as lon+ een un$estoo$ as a le+iti%ate

%o$e o! %ilitai6e$ )on!li)t in t"e aeas ."i)" no. )o%pise Pakistan&

"us, Husain HaBBani, )uently Pakistan7s A%assa$o to t"e nite$ (tates,

)o+ently a+ue$ t"at t"e elian)e upon %ilitan)y =is not ust t"e ina$etent out)o%e o!

$e)isions y so%e +oen%ents ;e+innin+ .it" t"at o! eneal Mu"a%%a$ Gia ul-HaB

in 19::105'"ile Pakistan "a$ lon+ instu%entali6e$ sla% to

sten+t"en Pakistan7s i$entity y uil$in+ an i$eolo+i)al state an$ y pusuin+

sla%i6ation, t"e state =+a$ually eole$ into a state+i) )o%%it%ent to i"a$i

i$eolo+y&>10@

Citi)ally, t"e a)Buisition o! nu)lea )apailities "as ot" enale$ an$ e%ol$ene$

Pakistan to pusue su)" state+ies .it" in)easin+ )on!i$en)e t"at $oin+ so .ill e )ost

!ee o, t"at in t"e eent o! n$ian etaliation, t"e intenational )o%%unity .ill ea$ily

%oili6e to $i!!use t"e )on!li)t& Pakistani se)uity elites t"ee!oe appe)iate t"at

nu)leai6ation is an i%potant enalin+ )on$ition !o its )ontinue$ elian)e upon =i"a$>

t"ou+"out n$ia een as n$ia )ontinues to e?pan$ its )onentional an$ state+i)

)apailities&

ien t"ese ayin+ leels o! suppot !o %ilitan)y .it"in Pakistan7s puli) an$

a)oss Pakistan7s %ilitay an$ intelli+en)e a+en)ies, it is $out!ul t"at Pakistan .ill e

.illin+ to aan$on t"e state+i) use o! %ilitan)y as a tool o! !oei+n poli)y an$ )onten$

.it" t"e e%e+ent %ilitant t"eat aa+in+ Pakistan an$ t"e e+ion& nless t"e nite$

(tates an$ its patnes )an !un$a%entally )"an+e t"e .ay Pakistan assesses its )ost

ene!it )al)ulus to.a$s n$ia an$/o !in$s so%e %eans o! a%elioatin+ Pakistan7s

neual+i) !eas o! n$ia, t"e intenational )o%%unity "as !e. )"oi)es ut to pepae !o

t"e .ose&

105Husain HaBBani,Pakistan% 7et!een Mos5ue and Militar-;'as"in+ton &C&E C#P, 2005


36/37

Fig%re -. /iha& is a ersonal str%ggle or righteo%sness. 4thers sa" 5iha& is

rotecting the M%sli$ U$$ah thro%gh 6ar. #hat &o "o% think

Note7 n-"ouse taulations, .ei+"te$&

Fig%re 3. #ho Can Use Militar" Force To Protect A M%sli$ Co%ntr" 4r U$$ah


37/37

Note7 n-"ouse taulations, .ei+"te$&

Documents

Fair Militancy Pak