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Facts, Figures, Forecasts
Kevin Baker
Account Director – Alcoholic Beverages
14th May 2013
1
Facts, Figures, Forecasts
Agenda
� Global Beer Market Trends
� Consolidation
� Emerging Markets
� “Craft Beer”� “Craft Beer”
� The Radler Phenomenon
� Cider
� Forecasts & Summary
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000 MHL YoY Growth
The Fall & Rise
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
02–’12 - 520 MHL Incremental Volume – Average CAGR ‘3.1%
Volumein ‘000 HL
2012
Regional Variations
CAGR2006 - 2012
2.0%
1,951
MHL
Global
6.1% 5.1% 0.3% -1.6% 3.3% 3.1% -1.1%
720
326
-1.6%
5
Per
Capita2012
30 12 7419 6562 54 5 72
108
21
250269
8
249
Africa Asia Australasia Europe (East)
Europe (West)
Latin America
MENA North America
Regional Growth
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Africa
Asia
MENA
Latin
Beer MHL Geographic MixBeer MHL Geographic Mix
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Latin America
Australasia
East Europe
North America
West Europe
Latin America
Australasia
Asia
Africa
Asia Drives Volume, But Africa Growing Fastest
Increm. MHL ’06 – ‘12Increm. MHL ’06 – ‘12
Latin America
Australasia
Asia
Africa
CAGR ’06 – ’12CAGR ’06 – ’12
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250
West Europe
North America
MENA
East Europe
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
West Europe
North America
MENA
East Europe
The World’s Top 10 Brewers 2013 (Estimate)
1.
Volume (mhls)
404.4A-BInBev
CompanyRank
2. 299.5SABMiller (inc CRB)
3.
4.
177.1Heineken
124.4Carlsberg
(inc Modelo ex-USA)
(inc. Kingway)
(inc APB)
(inc. Chongqing)
5.
6.
7.
76.9Tsingtao
8.
58.2
9.
43.5
Yanjing
10.
28.4
Molson Coors
Based on 2012P data
22.7
Asahi
58.5
Kirin
Castel
Global Consolidation
19981998 2013P2013P
All Others35%
Top 10 Brewers
34%Top 10
Brewers65%
35%34%All Others
66%
Latin America
Australasia
Asia
Africa
Asia Drives Volume, But Africa Growing Fastest
Increm. MHL ’06 – ‘12Increm. MHL ’06 – ‘12
Latin America
Australasia
Asia
Africa
CAGR ’06 – ’12CAGR ’06 – ’12
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250
West Europe
North America
MENA
East Europe
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
West Europe
North America
MENA
East Europe
Emerging Markets
Emerging vs Mature Markets
Increm. MHL ’06 – ‘12Increm. MHL ’06 – ‘12 Share of Global Market, 2012Share of Global Market, 2012
Mature31%
-200 0 200 400
Mature MarketsEmerging69%
Brewers Exposure to Emerging Markets
A-BInBevA-BInBev
Emerging59%
Mature41%
SABMillerSABMiller
Emerging67%
Mature33%
HeinekenHeineken
Emerging63%
Mature37%
59% 67% 63%
CarlsbergCarlsbergEmerging71%
Mature29%
Molson CoorsMolson Coors
Emerging18%
Mature82%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Growth Outlook
EmergingEmerging
Forecast YoY Growth, 2012 - 2018Forecast YoY Growth, 2012 - 2018
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MatureMature
Mexico
USA
Vietnam
Brazil
China
Forecast Market Growth
Incremental Volume 000’s HLIncremental Volume 000’s HL
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Nigeria
Argentina
South Africa
Colombia
India
Mexico
Africa Awakes
The African Market is set to
grow faster than Asia
There is a clear trend towards
developing more premium developing more premium
offerings
At the other end of the
spectrum many brewers are
looking at non-malt alternatives
to produce lower cost products
Defining Craft Beer
The Brewers Association in the US defines “Craft” beer as being
produced by brewers who are:
Small – <6 million barrels per year
Independent – Less than 25% equity held by a larger brewer
Traditional – Flagship brand is an all malt beer
Defining Craft Beer
The problem with this definition is that it excludes many products that
consumers would probably consider “craft” beer :
Leffe
Doom BarDoom Bar
Jacobsen
Blue Moon
Affligem
Grimbergen etc. etc.
Defining Craft Beer
Canadean believes that a better definition would be :
Products either produced by microbreweries
or or
Superpremium speciality (typically non-lager) beers* brewed by larger
brewers
*excluding Guinness
The Bigger Picture
Craft Beers is part of a wider
trend towards more local,
smaller scale, traditionally
made products
Other examples of this trend
can be seen in cheese;
bakery; chocolate; and in the
success of farmer’s markets
15,000
20,000
25,000 000's HL
The Rise of Craft Beer
0
5,000
10,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
02–’12 – 11.1 MHL Incremental Volume – Average CAGR 6.9%
Belgium
Italy
France
Germany
USA
Leading Craft Markets
Volume 000’s HLVolume 000’s HL
0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00
UK
Russia
Austria
Poland
Netherlands
The Drift To the Sweet Spot
There is a clear consumer need for
products that offer the following :
• around 5% Abv
• packaged in single serve bottles
• Sweet/Easy To Drink
• Refreshing
• Affordable• Affordable
This need can be met by
• less bitter beers
• Fruit Beer (or beers served with fruit)
• Beermixes
• FAB’s/Premixes
• Cider
Has the drift to Sweetness halted?
There is a some evidence
that consumers are now
looking for more challenging
bitter flavours
Examples are the increased Examples are the increased
popularity of espresso coffee,
dark/bitter chocolate; Gin &
Tonic and the launch of a less
sweet cider by Lambrini.
Mixing It Up
The mixing of Beer with Soft Drinks (especially Lemonade) is
surprisingly widespread.
These drinks are known as Shandy in the UK; Panach in France and
Switzerland; Radler in Germany and Austria; and (with the addition of
Worcester Sauce!) Michelada in Mexico.Worcester Sauce!) Michelada in Mexico.
These products really took off in Germany where the category now
accounts for almost 6% of the total beer market
These drinks have now been very successfully launched in Eastern
Europe
Ukraine
Serbia
Slovenia
Croatia
Hungary
Radler Growth in East Europe
Radler Volume 000’s HLRadler Volume 000’s HL
0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00
Bosnia
Czech Republic
Latvia
Lithuania
Romania
Ukraine
Global Cider : Steady Growth
Global Cider Volume 000’s HLGlobal Cider Volume 000’s HL
CAGR ‘99–’12P: 3.8%
Cider…Not Small Beer!
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Cider as % of Beer MarketCider as % of Beer Market
0%
2%
4%
6%
Cider Types 2012Cider Types 2012 ‘06-’12 Volume CAGR‘06-’12 Volume CAGR
Apple Dominates - Pear & Flavoured Growing Faster
36
Cider Is Still Predominantly European
BeerBeer CiderCider
North America4%
Latin America7%
Africa/Middle East7%
Asia1%
Australasia6%
Europe75%
7%
The World’s Largest Cider Brands
Bulmers Original
Kopparberg
Savanna
Magners/Bulmers (Ireland)
Strongbow
666
676
766
1,678 3,415
Ranking:
2012 KHL
Ranking:
2012 KHL
Stella Cidre
Frosty Jack's
Westons
Somersby
Hunter's
Bulmers Original
265
311
348
358
590
Note: Excludes Poland volumes for Somersby
� Cider growth expected to slow down but remain positive
� Slowdown in mature markets tempered by growth in new markets,
especially in Eastern Europe
� Growth will continue to be driven by pear and flavored cider
Global Cider Market Outlook
� Category will face competition from “new wave” of flavoured alcoholic
beverages and flavoured beers/beermixes
� Entry of all major brewers into category will drive growth and disrupt
competitive landscape
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1,500
2,000
2,500 MHL YoY Growth
Global Beer Market Outlook
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
0
500
1,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12 –’18 - 269 MHL Incremental Volume – Average CAGR ‘2.2%
Global Beer Market Trends
� Global market growth at a much lower lower rate than before the 2008
crash
� Growth rates between emerging markets (Asia; Africa; LatAm) and
mature markets (Europe, North America) will continue to widen
� China continues to grow – but growth rate slowing
� Africa will be the region to watch
� Key markets to watch are Brazil; Vietnam; Mexico and India
Global Beer Market Trends
� “Craft” Beer is a hot topic – although there is little consensus over
how to define it!
� Radler volumes have exploded in East Europe and are fuelled by
the trend towards sweeter beverages
� Cider continues to grow and outperform beer in many markets
� Consolidation slows but no signs that we have reached the
endgame yet!
2014
Canadean predict that Global Beer Volume will top 2 billion hectolitres
Will there be any further large scale mergers and acquisitions?
Will West European volumes continue to fall?
Will the Russian market return to growth?Will the Russian market return to growth?
Can Cider continue to grow?
Will Craft and Radlers continue to boom?
See you next year!