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ORIGINAL PAPER Factors Influencing the Break Even Probabilities of Agency Recruited Low Value Charity Donors Roger Bennett Ó International Society for Third-Sector Research and The Johns Hopkins University 2012 Abstract This study examined the considerations that may affect the likelihood of a charity donor, who was recruited face-to-face by a paid external agency and who gave through a low value monthly standing order, reaching the point of financial break even within a certain period of time; taking into account the person’s addi- tional ad hoc contributions to the organisation. Break even was defined as the situation pertaining when a supporter’s total donations covered the external agen- cy’s fee, induction costs, and annual donor maintenance expenses over an antici- pated supporter lifetime of 5 years. A questionnaire was mailed or emailed to two thousand agency recruited donors to a UK healthcare charity, resulting in 669 replies. Each of the participants had initially signed standing orders for between £2 and £5 a month, and had been with the charity for at least 4 years. The questionnaire contained items concerning, inter alia, a donor’s sense of obligation, relationship proneness, level of involvement with the charity’s cause, personal inertia, emotional benefits obtained from giving, and satisfaction with the organisation’s work. A Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was completed to determine the main factors that influenced the probability that a person would break even within 4 years following recruitment. In addition, logistic and least squares regression analyses were undertaken to establish the variables that affected low value donors’ pro- pensities to respond positively to requests to uplift the values of their standing orders. Re ´sume ´ Cette e ´tude s’est attache ´e a ` examiner les conside ´rations pouvant affecter la rapidite ´ selon laquelle un donateur caritatif recrute ´ en personne par une agence externe re ´mune ´re ´e, et ayant effectue ´ un don au moyen d’un ordre de virement R. Bennett (&) Centre for Research in Marketing, London Metropolitan Business School, London Metropolitan University, 84 Moorgate, London EC2M 6SQ, UK e-mail: [email protected] URL: www.londonmet.ac.uk/cermark 123 Voluntas DOI 10.1007/s11266-012-9314-9

Factors Influencing the Break Even Probabilities of Agency Recruited Low Value Charity Donors

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ORI GIN AL PA PER

Factors Influencing the Break Even Probabilitiesof Agency Recruited Low Value Charity Donors

Roger Bennett

� International Society for Third-Sector Research and The Johns Hopkins University 2012

Abstract This study examined the considerations that may affect the likelihood of

a charity donor, who was recruited face-to-face by a paid external agency and who

gave through a low value monthly standing order, reaching the point of financial

break even within a certain period of time; taking into account the person’s addi-

tional ad hoc contributions to the organisation. Break even was defined as the

situation pertaining when a supporter’s total donations covered the external agen-

cy’s fee, induction costs, and annual donor maintenance expenses over an antici-

pated supporter lifetime of 5 years. A questionnaire was mailed or emailed to two

thousand agency recruited donors to a UK healthcare charity, resulting in 669

replies. Each of the participants had initially signed standing orders for between £2

and £5 a month, and had been with the charity for at least 4 years. The questionnaire

contained items concerning, inter alia, a donor’s sense of obligation, relationship

proneness, level of involvement with the charity’s cause, personal inertia, emotional

benefits obtained from giving, and satisfaction with the organisation’s work. A Cox

proportional hazards regression analysis was completed to determine the main

factors that influenced the probability that a person would break even within 4 years

following recruitment. In addition, logistic and least squares regression analyses

were undertaken to establish the variables that affected low value donors’ pro-

pensities to respond positively to requests to uplift the values of their standing

orders.

Resume Cette etude s’est attachee a examiner les considerations pouvant affecter

la rapidite selon laquelle un donateur caritatif recrute en personne par une agence

externe remuneree, et ayant effectue un don au moyen d’un ordre de virement

R. Bennett (&)

Centre for Research in Marketing, London Metropolitan Business School, London Metropolitan

University, 84 Moorgate, London EC2M 6SQ, UK

e-mail: [email protected]

URL: www.londonmet.ac.uk/cermark

123

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DOI 10.1007/s11266-012-9314-9

mensuel d’un montant minime, serait susceptible d’atteindre le point de rentabilite

financiere. Ceci prenant en compte les contributions ponctuelles supplementaires de

la personne en faveur de l’organisation. La rentabilite a ete definie comme la

situation survenant lorsque le total des dons d’un contributeur permettait de couvrir

la commission de l’agence externe, les frais d’introduction et les depenses annuelles

de maintien des donateurs sur une duree anticipee de cinq ans des contributeurs. Un

questionnaire a ete envoye par la poste ou par courriel a deux mille donateurs

recrutes par une agence au profit d’une organisation caritative de soins de sante du

RU, resultant en 669 reponses. Chacun des participants avait initialement signe des

ordres de virement pour un montant mensuel entre 2 £ et 5 £, et avait contribue a

l’organisation depuis au moins quatre ans. Le questionnaire contenait des rubriques

afferentes, entre autres, au sentiment d’obligation du donateur, a l’inclination

relationnelle, au niveau d’implication dans la cause de l’organisation caritative, a la

passivite personnelle, aux benefices emotionnels resultant du don et a la satisfaction

quant au travail de l’organisation. Une analyse de regression des risques propor-

tionnels de Cox a ete effectuee afin de definir les facteurs principaux ayant influe sur

la probabilite selon laquelle une personne atteindrait le point de rentabilite dans les

quatre ans suivant son recrutement. En outre, des analyses logistiques et de

regression des moindres carres ont ete entreprises afin d’etablir les variables ayant

affecte les propensions des donateurs de faible valeur a repondre positivement aux

demandes visant a augmenter les montants de leurs ordres de virement.

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie untersuchte die Einflussfaktoren zur

Erreichung der Gewinnschwelle in den Fallen, in denen ein wohltatiger Spender von

einer beauftragten externen Agentur gewonnen wurde und einen geringen monat-

lichen Betrag leistete; zusatzliche einmalige Spenden der Person an die Organisa-

tion wurden dabei auch berucksichtigt. Die Gewinnschwelle definierte sich in

diesem Zusammenhang als der Zeitpunkt, zu dem die gesamten Beitrage eines

Spenders die Gebuhren der externen Agentur, die Zufuhrungskosten und die jahr-

lichen Aufwendungen fur die Spenderpflege bei einer angenommenen Spenden-

laufzeit von funf Jahren deckten. Es wurden Fragebogen per Post oder E-Mail an

zweitausend Spender einer britischen im Gesundheitswesen tatigen gemeinnutzigen

Organisation gesandt, die von einer Agentur geworben worden waren, und 669

Personen nahmen an der Umfrage teil. Die Teilnehmer hatten sich ursprunglich zur

Leistung eines monatlichen Spendenbeitrags zwischen 2 und 5 Pfund Sterling bereit

erklart und unterstutzten die Organisation seit mindestens vier Jahren. Der

Fragebogen enthielt unter anderem Fragen zum Pflichtgefuhl der Spender, zu ihrer

Beziehungsneigung, ihrem Engagement fur den Organisationszweck, ihrer person-

lichen Tragheit, ihrem emotionalen Nutzen infolge ihrer Spendenleistung und ihrer

Zufriedenheit mit der Arbeit der Organisation. Man fuhrte eine Proportional Hazard

Regression Analyse nach Cox durch, um die wesentlichen Faktoren zu identifizi-

eren, die die Erreichung der Gewinnschwelle innerhalb von vier Jahren nach der

Werbung eines Spenders wahrscheinlich machten. Zudem wurden eine logistische

Regressionsanalyse und eine Kleinste-Quadrate-Regressionsanalyse angewandt, um

die Variablen zu bestimmen, die Spender geringer Beitrage dazu bewegten, positiv

auf Anfragen hinsichtlich einer Erhohung ihres Spendenbeitrags zu reagieren.

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Resumen El presente estudio examino las consideraciones que pueden afectar la

rapidez con la que es probable que el donante de una organizacion benefica que fue

reclutado cara a cara por una agencia externa pagada y que coopero mediante una

orden permanente de pago mensual de poco valor alcanzase el punto de equilibrio;

tomando en cuenta las aportaciones ad hoc adicionales de la persona a la organizacion.

El equilibrio fue definido como la situacion que se produjo cuando los donativos

totales de un colaborador cubrieron la tarifa de la agencia externa, los costes de

induccion y los gastos de mantenimiento anuales del donante a lo largo de una vida de

colaborador prevista de cinco anos. Se envio por correo o por correo electronico un

cuestionario a dos mil donantes reclutados por agencia a una organizacion benefica

sobre salud del Reino Unido, que dio lugar a 669 respuestas. Cada uno de los par-

ticipantes habıa firmado inicialmente ordenes permanentes de pago de 2 y 5 £ al mes, y

habıan estado con la organizacion benefica durante cuatro anos, como mınimo. El

cuestionario contenıa elementos relativos, inter alia, al sentido de obligacion de un

donante, a la propension a la relacion, al nivel de implicacion con la causa de la

organizacion benefica, a la inercia personal, a los beneficios emocionales obtenidos de

dar, y a la satisfaccion con el trabajo de la organizacion. Se completo un analisis de

regresion de peligro proporcional de Cox para determinar los principales factores que

influyeron en la probabilidad de que se lograse el equilibrio de una persona en cuatro

anos despues de su reclutamiento. Asimismo, se emprendieron analisis de regresion de

mınimos cuadrados y logısticos para establecer las variables que afectaron la pro-

pension de los donantes de poco valor a responder positivamente a las solicitudes de

elevar los valores de sus ordenes permanentes de pago.

Keywords Charities � Fundraising agencies � Face-to-face recruitment � Time to

break even � Low value donors

Introduction

British charities increasingly employ paid agencies to approach potential donors

face-to-face for the purpose of soliciting regular monthly gifts that are automatically

deducted from a person’s bank account through a standing order. The practice first

appeared in the UK in 1997 and since then its use has grown enormously (Sargeant

and Jay 2004). Over 0.5 million donors are now recruited in this way annually:

750,000 in 2009 according to PFRA (2011). Third party fundraisers (sometimes

referred to as ‘chuggers’, i.e. ‘charity muggers’) operate door to door or approach

pedestrians in high street locations. The donors they recruit tend to be young

(between the ages of 20 and 40), and often to have little experience of charity

giving. Lapse rates are high, however, although agencies refund a proportion of

their fee if a donor cancels a standing order within a certain period, typically

12 months (Sargeant and Jay 2004; Sargeant and Hudson 2008). In many charities,

50 % of donors recruited face-to-face lapse within their first year. Some charities

lose 80 % of recruits within 24 months following acquisition. [Sargeant and Hudson

(2008) cited research which found that around 85 % of first year lapsers were under

40 years of age.] An analysis completed by Fleming and Tappin (2009) of the

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giving records of 377,000 donors to 30 UK charities who had been recruited face-to-

face in 2004 revealed 12-month lapse rates of between 34 and 64 % per charity.

Twenty-four-month lapse rates ranged from 49 to 81 %. For door to door

recruitment the figures were 14–62 % during year one and 34–79 % by the close of

year two. Similar patterns applied to donors recruited face-to-face in 2006.

Critically, the standing orders obtained via face-to-face approaches are frequently

for small amounts. Indeed, a number of leading UK charities actively seek low value

regular donors. For example, in 2011/2012 the British Heart Foundation, Oxfam,

Cancer Research UK and several other charities screened television advertisements

that asked viewers to give ‘just £2 a month’ through a bank standing order.

Unfortunately, from the point of view of the recruiting charity, a low value monthly

donor procured through an external agency will have been obtained at considerable

cost. In 2009 the average value of each standing order acquired through face-to-face

agency employee solicitation was £90 per annum (Quigley 2010), while the average

fee paid to external agencies varied between £80 and £160 per donor (Jones 2010). A

2009 BBC Newsnight investigation reported that the British Heart Foundation paid

£136 per signature to its external fundraising agency; Cancer Research UK paid £112

per signature and a total of £3 million per year to agency fundraisers (Quigley 2010).

Guide Dogs for the Blind stated that it paid its agencies £2 million annually.

As well as having to remunerate its external agency, the client charity also incurs the

costs of printing and mailing a welcome pack to the new donor, processing the standing

order, entering a person’s details in a database, telephoning the donor (through a

commercial telemarketing agency), printing and mailing periodic newsletters, and so

on. Maintenance activities of this nature (which have to be undertaken and paid for

irrespective of whether a recruit quickly lapses) add considerably to initial recruitment

cost meaning that, in the absence of supplementary donations, low value regular givers

will be unprofitable. Consider for instance a donor who signs a standing order for £4 a

month and who does not make any other gifts to the charity. At the end of 5 years [the

standard period used by charities to calculate total lifetime donor value—see Sargeant

(1998) and Aldrich (2000)], the person will have contributed £240. In 2011 the UK

Professional Fundraising Regulatory Association (PFRA) cited an average agency fee

of £100 per recruit (see also Jones 2010). PFRA (2011) suggested that collateral costs’

(i.e., the costs of the welcome pack, database entry processing and the mailing of

appeal literature) would be a minimum of £50 initially and that routine maintenance

(mailings of gift catalogues, raffle tickets, newsletters, etc.) would cost £25 a year.

These expenditures total £275, resulting in a £35 loss for the charity. A £4 a month

recruit who lapses within the first year will generate a loss of at least £102.

Notwithstanding the above, agency face-to-face fundraising is popular with

charities. According to the PFRA, donors recruited face-to-face by agencies

contribute around £120 million a year in aggregate and represent about 17.5 % of

all people who currently give to charities through standing orders (PFRA 2011). If a

new donor can be persuaded to give £10 a month, PFRA (2011) observed, the fee

paid to an external agency will be covered on average within 8–16 months.

Inclusion of collateral costs, the PFRA (2011) continued, results in a predicted break

even period of 26–28 months, creating an excellent return on a donor who gives for

4 or 5 years. PFRA (2011) estimated the average 5 year return from £1 of

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expenditure on agency face-to-face fundraising to be £2.50 for donors who give at

least £10 per month.

Ensuring that a regular giver who donates a low monthly amount will move into

profitability requires either that the individual increases the value of his or her

standing order or that the individual makes ad hoc additional contributions (e.g.

responses to routine direct mail and/or email appeals, revenues from raffle tickets,

one-off online donations) that bring the person’s total contributions to an acceptable

level. [It is interesting to note in this connection the finding of Fleming and Tappin

(2009) that the lower the values of donors’ monthly contributions the better the rate

of retention.] Clearly, the conversion of low value regular donors into higher value

supporters is a matter of substantial importance for charities that employ external

face-to-face fundraising agencies. Yet, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this

matter has not been the subject of serious academic investigation. Rather, prior

research into face-to-face fundraising (e.g. Jay 2001; Sargeant and Jay 2004;

Sargeant and Hudson 2008; Fleming and Tappin 2009; Lake 2009) has focused on

the characteristics of face-to-face recruits, their recruitment experiences and reasons

for giving, and the factors that differentiate between lapsed and active standing

order donors. The present study differed from these previous investigations in that it

sought to establish the considerations that cause low value standing order donors

who remain with a charity to exceed financial break even within a certain period.

Specifically, the research attempted to establish, among a sample of 669 low value

(i.e. £5 a month or less) standing order donors to a particular UK charity recruited

by an external agency, answers to the following questions.

(a) Assuming a donor lifetime of 5 years, what factors affected the probability of a

low value donor breaking even within 4 years of acquisition?

(b) What factors influenced whether a person did or did not respond positively to

appeals asking the individual to uplift the value of his or her standing order?

(c) If a person did respond positively to an uplift appeal, what factors affected the

value of the increase in the individual’s standing order?

(d) Among donors who did break even within 4 years of recruitment, how long

did it take an average low value donor to break even?

Break even was defined for current purposes as the point where the external

agency’s fee, welcome pack costs and maintenance costs for a 5 year period (i.e. the

average donor’s expected lifetime) had been covered. These periods were selected

because, although a low value supporter who has been donating for 4 years should be

at least approaching break even, the charity sponsoring the research had observed that

relatively few of the standing orders of people who had been with the charity for

4 years survived for more than about 6 years. (More than 90 % of these commitments

were cancelled before year 10.) This corresponds to evidence from other sources (see

Sargeant 1998; Aldrich 2000) that regular donors to a charity rarely continue their

support for more than 5 or 6 years, possibly due in part to a person becoming

‘overfamiliar’ with the charity, bored with receiving a surfeit of repetitive

communications from the organisation, and general loss of interest (see Bennett,

(2009) for details of academic literature supporting this proposition). ‘Donor fatigue’

of this nature is likely to intensify as the years go by. Another reason for investigating

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the probability of a low value door attaining break even within just a few years is that,

even if break even is achieved before the donor cancels his or her support for the

charity, the organisation needs to consider carefully whether the extremely low returns

on the investments made in recruiting and nurturing donors of this type have been

worthwhile in relation to the alternative uses of funds that were available.

Literature Review

Although the issue of why large numbers of face-to-face recruits quickly terminate

their standing orders is different to the topic covered by the present investigation,

the literature on donor lapse does identify several variables with the potential to

influence the speed with which a recruit reaches break even, either through

increasing the value of a standing order or by giving in other ways. In addition to

these variables, the present study posits that two further constructs are relevant to

the research questions posed in the previous section; namely a person’s ‘sense of

obligation’, and the individual’s relationship proneness. These and the variables

derived from the donor lapse literature are briefly described below.

Sense of Involvement with the Charity’s Cause

Feelings of personal involvement with a charity’s work might lead a regular donor

to accept solicitations to give more to the organisation. A high level of

psychological involvement with a particular good cause will be associated with

the individual regarding his or her support for the cause to be personally relevant,

satisfying and necessary; as having a great deal of meaning for the donor; and as an

activity that constitutes a vital part of the person’s life (see Bennett and Gabriel

1999 for details of the academic literature supporting these propositions). Feelings

of this nature could arise from experience (e.g. of a relative succumbing to a

particular illness), from receiving a charity’s promotional materials, or from a

change in personal circumstances. Involvement can provide the ‘motivation to

process information’ (Celsi and Olson 1988, p. 217) and hence may cause a donor to

take a deep interest in a charity’s activities and communications.

Feelings of Emotional Benefit Obtained from Donating

Many studies have concluded that giving to charity has a hedonistic component and

proffers strong hedonistic rewards (see Sargeant and Woodliffe 2007 for details of

relevant literature). Donating to a charity can provide a person with a ‘psychological

lift’ (cf. Hausman 2000, p. 407), a sense of internal satisfaction (Harbaugh 1998),

feelings of being energised (cf. Rook 1987), and a general improvement in the

donor’s mood. It can bolster an individual’s self-image, and this may itself stimulate

a ‘warm glow’, i.e. a surge of self-gratifying positive emotion experienced

consequent to making a charitable donation (Sargeant and Woodliffe 2007, p. 292).

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Indeed, giving to charity has been characterised as ‘the monetary purchase of moral

satisfaction’ undertaken for the egoistic reason of wanting to feel better (Strahilevitz

and Myers 1998, p. 435). Warm glow can also arise because the very act of donating

can cause people inwardly to assert that they are altruistic and possess high ideals

and moral values. The gift conveys a symbolic statement about the person that fits in

with his or her self-identity (Williamson and Clark 1989).

It follows from the above that people who experience intense feelings of

emotional benefit as a result of giving to charity might be more responsive to uplift

appeals and to requests for additional ad hoc contributions than individuals who do

not experience substantial warm glow.

Personal Inertia

A problem connected with asking someone to give just a small monthly amount is that

it ‘makes it easy not to give a lot’ and can remove ‘any feelings of guilt a person might

have had about declining a tougher ask’ (MacQuillin 2011, p. 1). This could represent a

significant issue among people who are by nature inertial and, in consequence, might

simply not ‘get around’ to raising their donation levels when asked (cf. Inria et al.

1998). Inertia, in the present context, involves ‘a state of primary motivational

impairment’ that operates independently of cognition or emotional situation (Marin

et al. 1991, p. 146). It disinclines an individual to devote time and effort to ‘activities

of interest’ (p. 151). Hence, an inertial person might not respond to an uplift request as

doing so is ‘too much bother’ and because the individual ‘wishes to save the cost of

thinking’ (Yanamandram and White 2006, p. 169).

Post-Recruitment Satisfaction with the Charity

A priori it seems reasonable to posit that a regular donor’s post-recruitment

satisfaction with a charity will enhance his or her subsequent readiness to give more

to the organisation (see Sargeant and Hudson 2008). Two dimensions of satisfaction

need to be considered: satisfaction with the charity’s work and satisfaction with its

communications.

Satisfaction with a Charity’s Activities

A donor’s general satisfaction with a charity involves the person’s cumulative

satisfaction with the organisation: its work, achievements, reputation, values and

mission (Aldrich 2000). In principle, a donor who is generally satisfied with a charity

should want to have more to do with it (Bennett and Barkensjo 2005); should trust the

charity to a greater extent (implying a belief that the organisation will utilise a donor’s

gift wisely); and be more committed to the charity. Hence, a supporter who is satisfied

in overall terms with a charity may be expected to respond positively to requests to

increase the level of his or her donations. In particular, perceptions that an

organisation’s work is extremely important could significantly influence uplift

decisions (cf. Laurent and Kapferer 1985), because perceptions of this nature could

result in a person evaluating the charity’s requests more closely (Tokman et al. 2007).

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Satisfaction with a Charity’s Communications

Sargeant and Jay (2004) and Sargeant and Hudson (2008) noted the crucial

importance of post-recruitment communications with donors as a determinant of

whether subsequent gifts would be forthcoming. Communications can ‘confirm that

a satisfactory outcome has resulted from the donation’ (Hibbert 1995, p. 7), hence

reducing the perceived level of risk associated with future donation decisions.

Communications that instil in the donor a sense of personally having contributed to

solving a social, medical, humanitarian, etc., problem can be particularly effective

for encouraging donors to give again (Duncan 2004). Indeed, Duncan (2004)

identified a distinct philanthropic motivation (‘impact philanthropy’) that focused

on an individual’s desire to ‘personally make a difference’ (p. 2160). Feelings of

having made a real difference may satisfy a powerful cognitive need in certain

individuals (Harbaugh 1998). Such feelings might be inculcated directly by

exposing a recently recruited donor to a charity’s work via mailshots, newsletters

and emails.

Sound post-recruitment communications build lasting relationships with donors

(Bennett and Barkensjo 2005), keep the supporter fully informed of the charity’s

successes and how exactly a donor’s contributions have been utilised (Sargeant and

Jay 2004), and make the individual feel appreciated and that his or her opinions

matter (Tax et al. 1998).

Acceptance of Incentives

Many charities offer their donors material incentives intended to entice them to

remain with an organisation (Bennett 2007). For example, the Royal Society for the

Protection of Birds provides its supporters with free entry to its nature reserves and a

free birdwatching magazine. The Sue Ryder Care organisation gives its donors free

entry to charity sponsored events as a means of nudging supporters into making

higher donations (Samuel 2009). Other charities organise walks, fashion shows,

discounted entry to sporting events, supporter club membership with specific

benefits (Webber 2004) and/or provide donors with online games and/or music

downloads, free entry to prize draws and competitions, and tangible gifts such as

umbrellas, bags and wallets (Bennett 2007). Acceptance of these gifts and benefits

can provide a donor with pleasurable experiences and should increase his or her

trust in and commitment to the organisation (Seiders et al. 2005). This in turn may

cause a recently recruited donor to be willing to uplift the level of his or her annual

contribution and/or to give additional amounts in other ways.

Sense of Obligation

A sense of obligation (‘felt’ obligation) is a ‘prescriptive belief regarding whether

one should care about an organisation’s well-being and should help it reach its

goals’ (Eisenberger et al. 2001, p. 42). It involves a person’s feelings that he or she

ought to do certain things (Neblett 1976) simply because ‘it is right to do so’

(Simola 2011, p. 70). Some people experience felt obligation more easily and

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frequently than others (Simola 2011), depending on the significance of an issue to

the individual. Olsen et al. (2010) characterised felt obligation as ‘negative feelings

of guilt’ (p. 534) arising from the prospect of not fulfilling an obligation. Felt

obligation can arise, inter alia, from feelings of concern for a situation, from a sense

of commitment to an undertaking, or from a belief that an action ‘will promote some

further good in the future’ (Neblett 1976, p. 342). According to Olsen et al. (2010),

felt obligation derives from a person’s own internalised norms and values and his or

her acquired views about right and wrong. Violation of these norms, values and

views will damage a person’s self-concept. Conversely, ‘doing the right thing’ is a

source of personal satisfaction (Arvola et al. 2008). This may be especially salient

in situations where a person is aware that the well-being of others depends on the

individual’s actions (Manstead 2000; Arvola et al. 2008).

In the organisational context, felt obligation involves (i) a commitment to

remaining with an organisation ‘because one ought to’ (Meyer et al. 1993, p. 541)

and (ii) a strong belief in and acceptance of the organisation’s goals and values (see

Hom et al. 1979). Felt obligation has been found to exert powerful influences on

behavioural intention and willingness to act, including intended behaviour relating

to giving (Gorsuch and Ortberg 1983).

Relationship Proneness

Certain people are ‘psychologically predisposed to engage in relationships with

organisations’ (Christy et al. 1996, p. 177). Such individuals are said to be

‘relationship prone’. They want to participate in relationships with organisations

(Dick and Basu 1994) and view their relationships more favourably than do other

people (Odekerken-Schroder et al. 2003). Allegedly, relationship proneness is a

stable personality trait (Odekerken-Schroder et al. 2003) characterised by feelings

of trust, a preference for building collaborative relationships, and a willingness to

offer resources to a relationship partner (Ivens 2006). The relationship prone try to

be close to and to cooperate with the other party and to establish a long-term

relationship. They have been found to be more satisfied with and committed to the

organisations with which they have relationships (Bloemer et al. 2003). Thus, it

may be easier for a charity to persuade the relationship prone to develop and self-

validate their relationships with the organisation through increasing their levels of

financial support (cf. Odekerken-Schroder et al. 2003).

Control Variables

A person’s income (i.e. a proxy for financial capacity to give), age, education level

and gender were used as controls, but the full range of variables mentioned by the

lapse and associated literature was not considered. This was because constructs such

as the goodness-of-fit between a charity and an individual’s self-image, general

altruism, religiosity, past involvement with charities, etc. [see Sargeant and

Woodliffe (2007) for a general review of charity giving] should in principle affect

decisions to take out a standing order for a specific amount in the first instance,

rather than determining subsequent uplift behaviour.

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The Study

Data Collection

The research was conducted on behalf of a UK healthcare charity (annual income

around £70 million) that had employed a face-to-face agency intermittently for the

previous 10 years. Around 35 % of the standing orders obtained via this process had

been for £5 per month or less in the first instance. In 2011 agency fees and donor

induction costs (database entry, mailing of a welcome pack, etc.) were estimated to

average £175 per head with annual maintenance costs of around £30 per year. This

meant that (even after allowing for additional ad hoc gifts) the charity would barely

break even on the recruitment of many of its standing order donors. Twelve months

after recruitment, donors whose standing orders were for £5 a month or less were

mailed a pack asking them to increase their standing order donations. Each pack

cost £15 to produce and distribute (2011 prices) and contained pictures and textual

information on how the lives of the charity’s beneficiaries had been improved

consequent to the donor’s present level of contribution, plus (i) a form for increasing

the person’s standing order, (ii) suggestions for giving in alternative ways, and (iii)

the address of a website that carries messages from other supporters, doctors and

nurses, and beneficiaries. The pack described alternative scenarios regarding what

exactly a specified level of higher value standing orders would achieve, e.g. ‘£X per

month will provide A, but £X ? Y per month will provide B.’

Three months later, small value donors not responding to the pack mailing were

contacted (at a cost of about £3 per head) by an employee of a telemarketing agency

and asked to increase the values of their standing orders. Telephone communica-

tions were preferred on the grounds that they offered opportunities for personalising

the appeal, answering questions, dealing with objections, and efficiently negotiating

an upgrade value. All standing order donors (high or low value) were sent an uplift

request pack 30 months after recruitment, and all were mailed with gift catalogues,

ad hoc appeal materials, raffle tickets, etc., during each year of their connection with

the charity. Communications from the charity to all its supporters included

invitations to participate in events such as fetes, garden parties, walks and car boot

sales, and to join a supporters’ club the membership of which enabled people to

obtain discounts on purchases at certain retail outlets.

Overall the charity’s management was pleased with the results of its face-to-face

recruitment expenditures, but concerned about an ‘unprofitable donor’ problem that

appeared to be emerging. Hence, a review was initiated that included interrogating

the organisation’s database to obtain information on, inter alia, (i) uplift values

resulting from the mailing of the pack after 12 months or the follow up telephone

call after 15 months, and (ii) cumulative monthly donation totals per recruit

including standing order donations plus all other gifts. These other ad hoc gifts

comprised an individuals responses to routine direct mail and email appeals plus

receipts from the sale of raffle tickets and one-off online donations, and were

ascribed to the donor’s identification number in the database. Thus, by deducting

recruitment and maintenance costs from cumulative donations it was possible to

calculate how long on average it took each low value donor who had been recruited

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123

face-to-face to break even. Cumulative costs (in 2011 prices) were estimated at

£190 (i.e., £175 plus the £15 uplift ask) by the end of year one, £210 by the close of

the second year, and £300 after five full years. In line with sector practice, the

charity assumed an average donor’s total lifetime as 5 or 6 years.

Contact details of 2000 agency recruited low value donors who had remained

with the charity for a period of at least 4 years were made available for the present

study. (All the participants had given permission for their details to be passed to

third parties.) As the study was completed in 2011 it covered donors recruited face-

to-face between 2001 (whose 4 year time to maturity expired in 2005) and 2006 (i.e.

donors maturing in 2010). The 2000-strong sampling frame represented 79 % of all

the charity’s donors recruited face-to-face over the 6 year period who satisfied the

criteria of having continued to donate for 4 years and whose initial standing order

was for £5 a month or less (measured in 2011 prices). The other 21 % of these

donors had either declined to allow their email addressed to be passed on to third

parties or were individuals whose email addresses were no longer valid. There are

no a priori reasons for supposing that the people in this 21 % would differ

substantially from those in the 79 %. A questionnaire covering the constructs

discussed in the literature review was mailed or emailed (in Survey Monkey form) to

the 2000 contacts, resulting in 669 responses. A majority (68 %) of the participants

were female and more than a third of the sample had relatively high incomes (of

more than £50,000 per annum), reflecting the affluent housing districts and areas

frequented by high income employees (e.g. the financial centre of the City of

London) that are targeted by agencies. The respondents had an average age of

40 years and on average had left full time education (a proxy for education level) at

age 19.5 years. These characteristics provide a reasonable match of the sample to

members of the public known to be amenable to face-to-face recruitment [female,

affluent, relatively young, etc.—see Sargeant and Jay (2004) and Sargeant and

Hudson (2008)].

The charity sponsoring the research was a large national organisation concerned

with one of the UK’s most common diseases (cancer) and which advertises

regularly in newspapers and on television. As such the charity is likely to attract

donors who are representative of UK donors in general. There was no statistical

evidence of early or late response bias. The test for bias followed the procedure

suggested by Armstrong and Overton (1977), whereby the responses in the first third

of the returned questionnaires were compared with the responses in the last third of

the returned documents. Armstrong and Overton (1977) showed that the absence of

differences between early and late respondents indicated that late respondents

shared characteristics with non-respondents. Mean values and standard deviations of

the main constructs measured in the present investigation did not differ substantially

between the first and last sets of responses, and correlations among key variables

were similar within each group. As the value of £1 revenue or expenditure relating

to a person recruited in 2006 and continuing to 2010 is higher than the value of £1 of

revenue or expenditure arising in 2001, all cash amounts used in the statistical

estimations were discounted back to 2001 values at an average discount rate of

2.5 % to allow for inflation.

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123

Measurement of Variables

A person’s sense of involvement with the charity’s cause during the years he or she

was donating was measured using five items adapted from Bennett and Gabriel

(1999), e.g. ‘Giving to this cause has been a vitally important part of my life’.

Feelings of emotional benefit obtained from donating were assessed via five items

based on Laurent and Kapferer (1985), e.g. ‘I felt uplifted after making a donation to

charity’. Personal inertia was evaluated through five items modified from Marin

et al. (1991), e.g. ‘Getting things done on time is not very important to me’.

Satisfaction with a charity’s communications was measured using five items

adapted from Sargeant and Jay (2004), e.g. ‘Communications from the charity were

interesting and informative’. Satisfaction with a charity’s activities was assessed via

five items previously employed by Bennett and Ali-Choudhury (2009), e.g.,

‘Overall I was very satisfied with the charity’s work during the period I was

donating’. A single item questioned whether a person had accepted incentives such

as participation in any of the charity’s events or membership of a supporters’ club.

An individual’s degree of felt obligation was evaluated through six items adapted

from Eisenberger et al. (2001), e.g. ‘I felt a personal obligation to do whatever I

could to help this charity achieve its goals’. Relationship proneness was measured

through five items proposed by Odekerken-Schroder et al. (2003), e.g. ‘I am

someone who is willing to ‘‘go the extra mile’’ to purchase at the same store that I

normally go to’. Items adapted from pre-existing inventories were modified using

the standard procedures conventionally applied to this matter (see Engelland et al.

2001). Thus, two independent adjudicators ensured that candidate items fell within

the domain of the relevant construct, fully expressed its meaning, and were worded

using vocabulary compatible with that of the target respondents. Apart from the

purely factual queries concerning age, gender and income, all items were measured

using five point scales: 5 = strongly agree; 1 = strongly disagree.

Estimation Method

Responses to the items relating to each of the above constructs were factor analysed,

unidimensional solutions occurring in all cases (as anticipated a priori for these

measures; all of which have been validated by prior studies). Each leading

eigenvalue explained at least 70 % of total variation, all Cronbach’s a values

exceeded .86 and all variance extracted figures were greater than .52. Hence, the

items pertaining to each of the constructs were combined (by averaging) into single

scales reflecting each of the constructs. The correlation matrix pertaining to the

composites is given in Table 1. A Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was

then completed to identify significant influences on the probability that a donor

whose initial standing order had been for £5 a month (in 2011 prices) or less had

reached break even within 48 months of recruitment. Break even resulted when

revenues totalled £300 (in 2011 prices), i.e. the level of total cost incurred over a

5 year average donor lifetime. This could be achieved either through a person

increasing the value of a standing order or by making additional ad hoc gifts. The

period of 48 months was chosen as it gave one further year within which a donor

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123

could generate a profit before the expiry of the person’s expected donation lifetime.

Also, if any individual does not attain break even within 4 years it seems reasonable

to question whether the person will ever achieve substantial profitability, implying

that donor deselection procedures might need to be considered (see Bennett and

Kottasz 2011 for information on donor deselection methods). The Cox model is a

technique for exploring the relationship between (i) the likelihood of the occurrence

of an event before the expiry of a given time period, and (ii) a set of explanatory

variables. It allows the estimation of the ‘hazard’ (or risk) of the event happening for

an individual, given that it has not already occurred, on the basis of the person’s

predictive characteristics. The method was selected because it makes no assump-

tions regarding the distribution of time periods prior to the occurrence of an event

(i.e. reaching break even in the present context); allows the inclusion of several

explanatory variables; and enables the independent variables themselves to be

linked to time.

A restriction of the Cox approach is its assumption that the underlying hazard

(risk) is ‘proportional’, i.e. that it is a function of the independent variables and is

consistent over the total time period in question (4 years in the present case).

Consider for instance a person who possesses certain characteristics and who, in the

early part of the 4 year period, has a risk of not breaking even that is (say) double

the risk of an individual without these characteristics. The Cox method assumes that

this person’s risk of not breaking even will remain twice as high as that of the other

individual at all later times during the 4 year period. Individuals who did not attain

break even within 4 years were coded as such (‘censored’ in Cox regression

technology) and the model was estimated given that the maximum 4 year duration

allowed was cut off before these donors achieved break even.

Table 1 Correlation matrix

Mean SD a

1. Sense of involvement

with the cause

3.5 1.0 .88 1

2. Feelings of emotional

benefit

3.4 1.1 .90 .20 1

3. Personal inertia 2.8 1.1 .86 .08 -.09 1

4. Satisfaction with the

charity’s activities

3.7 0.9 .89 .32 .26 -.10 1

5. Satisfaction with the

charity’s

communications

2.6 0.9 .86 .20 .26 -.05 .32 1

6. Acceptance of

incentives

2.9 1.2 N/

A

.29 .22 .05 .20 .25 1

7. Sense of obligation 2.8 1.0 .88 .12 .08 -.04 -.11 .07 .26 1

8. Relationship

proneness

2.8 1.0 .86 .09 .17 .13 .04 .10 .29 .22 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

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123

Findings

The average initial value of the monthly standing orders of these low value

supporters (i.e. people whose opening standing orders ranged from £2 to £5) was

£3.90 in 2011 prices. Sixteen percent of the participants had responded to the first

written request or to the telephone call asking for an uplift in a person’s monthly

contributions; raising their standing orders by an average of 50 % of base value

(68 % for people giving £3 a month; 40 % for those donating £5 a month). (The

uplift request only asked for an increase in the value of the monthly standing order,

not for additional ad hoc gifts.) Fifteen percent of the sample had agreed to increase

the amounts of their standing orders consequent to the uplift request mailed

30 months after recruitment. Again the average uplift value was 50 %. It can be

seen from the above that the additional revenues obtained from the uplift appeals

was modest, meaning that the charity relied heavily on procuring supplementary ad

hoc gifts from these low value supporters to move them into profitability. (It is not

possible to compare these figures with those for other charities as a search of both

the practitioner and academic literature failed to unearth any data on the subject.)

Nine percent of the sample had participated in one or more of a charity’s events or

had joined its supporters’ club.

Regression analyses were completed to explain various aspects of break even

behaviour (see Table 2). Composites formed from the items relating to the personal

tendencies used in the analysis (sense of obligation, etc.) satisfied standard tests for

normality and were distributed around the central values of the relevant scales.

Three variables consistently failed to attain significance (p \ .01) in any of the

analyses irrespective of the configurations of other independent variables, i.e. age,

education level and satisfaction with communications. Studies have established that

younger face-to-face recruits lapse sooner and more frequently than others (see

Sargeant and Jay 2004; Fleming and Tappin 2009). However, the younger people in

the present study were no more or less likely to uplift (or to uplift by greater or

lesser amounts) than older individuals. Education level was insignificant in all the

regressions, due probably to lack of variation in the data. Most of the participants

were well-educated relative to the rest of the population; an unsurprising outcome

given the locations in which the sample members were likely to have been recruited.

Although satisfaction with a charity’s work affected all the dependent variables, this

was not the case vis-a-vis satisfaction with the charity’s communications. Thus, the

perceived calibre of the organisation’s newsletters, brochures, appeals materials,

etc. did not appear to have triggered positive responses to requests to increase the

value of a standing order. Rather, consent to uplift donation levels arose more from

donors’ prior perceptions of the quality and value of the charity’s operational

activities.

The three persistently insignificant variables were removed from the analysis and

the regressions recomputed, generating the outcomes shown in Table 2. Column A

of the table presents the results of a binary logistic regression conducted across the

whole sample with a dependent variable coded at zero if a person had not responded

positively to the first uplift appeal (written or by telephone) or unity if the individual

had uplifted his or her standing order. Column B of the table gives the outcome of

Voluntas

123

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Voluntas

123

the corresponding logistic regression relating to the second appeal. The next two

columns show the results of regressions relating to people who had responded to

both the appeals (regression C, N = 55) and to individuals who has responded to

neither (regression D, N = 507). Table 2 columns E and F give the results of least

squares regressions with dependent variables comprising the monetary uplift values

arising for each person who did in fact increase his or her standing order consequent

to each of the appeals (N = 107 and N = 100). (Values of ad hoc donations

received in addition to uplifts of standing orders were not included as dependent

variables in the present study because these amounts would depend on factors not

covered by the present research.) The results in columns E and F relate specifically

and only to people who had taken conscious decisions to increase their standing

orders. (The determinants of decisions not to uplift would need to be modelled

separately.) It can be seen from Table 2 A and B that the initial value of a person’s

standing order (within the range £2–£5) had no influence on whether the individual

would uplift his or her standing order when asked. People did not appear to have

thought that the amount of, say, £2 a month was ‘too low’ and hence did not seem to

be more responsive to uplift appeals than others. This might be explained, perhaps,

by the fact that the charity had actively solicited these low value standing orders,

possibly causing the individuals who had accepted the invitation to give just a small

monthly amount to have felt that they had already fulfilled their obligations.

Regressions C and D confirm the pattern of results emerging from regressions A and

B. Among people who did uplift, however, (Table 2 E and F) the monetary values

of uplifts were greater for individuals whose initial standing order values were very

low. Each of the Exp b values (i.e. the exponentials of the regression coefficients)

for the significant variables in columns A and B is an odds ratio which shows the

change in the odds (i.e. the probability of responding to an uplift relative to the

probability of not responding) that ensues from a unit increase in the relevant

independent variable. An exponentiated coefficient with a value greater than one

corresponds to a positive effect; while an exponentiated coefficient with a value less

than one indicates a negative effect. Comparing the beta coefficients in columns C

and D it can be seen that sense of involvement, income level and feelings of

emotional benefit and of felt obligation exerted the most powerful effects. The

coefficients on the remaining variables other than personal inertia had lower

magnitudes but nevertheless were significant in the statistical sense.

Column G of Table 2 gives the outcome to a Cox proportional hazards regression

completed to identify significant influences on the likelihood that a person would

break even within 4 years of recruitment (in the sense of donating a total of at least

the £300 [discounted to account for inflation] needed to cover the cost of

recruitment and induction plus maintenance costs for an expected 5 year donor

lifetime). The Exp b figures listed in column G show how the odds of a person

breaking even by the end of the 4 year period rise if the value of the relevant

independent variable increases by one unit after adjusting for the influences of the

other variables in the model. It can be seen that high relationship proneness, a deep

sense of involvement with the charity’s cause, acceptance of incentives and

satisfaction with the organisation’s work were important determinants of whether a

person would break even within the specified period. (It is obvious that an

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123

individual whose monthly standing order was initially of a relatively high value [e.g.

£5 compared to £2] is likely, ceteris paribus, to reach break even faster than a person

who started out with a low value standing order.) Donors high on personal inertia

were less likely to break even within 4 years than people who were low on this

tendency. Personal inertia affected whether a person actually responded to an uplift

appeal but, for the personally inert who did respond, it did not influence the level of

the additional donation.

The SPSS Cox regression procedure used for the analysis allows the testing of the

hypothesis that the coefficient on an explanatory variable is itself time dependent,

i.e. that its value rises or falls systematically at the various points during the period

of interest. This possibility was tested (via linear, logarithmic and product

transformations) for ‘sense of obligation’, ‘involvement with the cause’ and

‘satisfaction with the charity’s work’. There was no evidence of time dependency

(p \ .05) in any of the cases, suggesting that the effects on the likelihood of an

uplift occurring of felt obligation towards the charity, involvement with the cause

and satisfaction with its work did not increase or decrease over time in consequence

of exposure to the charity’s appeals and communications. This implies that the uplift

packages sent to face-to-face recruits after 12 and 30 months had not significantly

increased the influences of the recipients’ feelings of obligation, involvement or

satisfaction. The relatively modest responses to the uplift appeals (16 and 15 %)

might be partially explained by this possibility.

Time Required to Break Even

Figure 1 plots the Cox survival function (in the present context the probability of a

person not breaking even by a certain time) calculated at the mean values of the

independent variables listed in Table 2. It shows how the probability of ‘survival’ of

1.0

Time (months)

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48

Cum

ulat

ive

prob

abili

ty o

f not

hav

ing

brok

en e

ven Values of the function at mean of covariates

Fig. 1 Survival function (shows the likelihood of a person ‘surviving’ as an individual who has notbroken even after a certain period of time)

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an individual as someone who does not break even, and who exhibits the mean

values of the Table 2 variables, decreases over time. It can be seen that the

probability of this hypothetical donor not breaking even remains above 90 % until

18 months after recruitment, and does not decline to less than 80 % until 30 months

have elapsed. Significant falls occur after 36 months and 42 months. [A supporter

who, for instance, gives £4.50 a month (in 2011 prices) by standing order and

around £30 a year through ad hoc extra donations will have just broken even by

43 months.] At the expiry of the full 4 years there remains a 40 % chance that the

‘typical’ donor, as described, will still not have broken even.

Conclusion and Discussion

To date, academic and practitioner literature in the donor development field has

focused on how charity managements can efficaciously identify high value donors

and then induce them to give more generously (see Polonsky and Sargeant 2007).

Thus, criteria for segmenting donors into groups and for devising fundraising

campaigns have concentrated primarily on the ‘top end’ of the donor market. The

deliberate recruitment of substantial numbers of low value standing order monthly

givers creates new challenges, however, and careful attention needs to be devoted to

how these issues can be addressed. Only one in six of the members of the present

sample responded to each of the uplift appeals, and the average uplift values of the

people who did respond were modest. It appears therefore that either the contents of

the uplift appeals were ineffective or that the periods of 12 and 30 months for

making the appeals were inappropriate, or both. Hence, the charity needed to rely on

its low value standing order supporters making additional ad hoc donations to bring

their total contribution levels up to break even. Yet, at the end of 4 years, the

probability of an average low value donor having broken even (measured at the

mean values of the covariates) was only 60 %. Although some of the remaining

40 % would attain break even within the following 12 months or so, this is a

discouraging situation from the charity’s point of view given that the expected

lifetime of a typical donor is just 5 or 6 years. [Most UK charities use a 5 year time

horizon when computing donor lifetime values (Aldrich 2000).] The position would

be even more disturbing if the losses incurred on lapsed face-to-face recruits were to

be ascribed to those that remained. [It was not the charity’s practice to do this in

view of the complexity of the cost allocation methods that would have to be applied.

Sargeant (1998) noted how the donor lifetimes of UK givers rarely extend beyond

5–7 years.]

The findings suggest that the charity hosting the investigation needs to do more to

segment its donor relationship management policies to target and better serve its

low value donors. This may well be equally true of other charities that use the

services of external face-to-face fundraising agencies. The present study demon-

strated that many of the low value supporters most likely to break even within

4 years and/or to uplift their standing orders shared certain characteristics; notably a

strong sense of obligation, relationship proneness, involvement with the charity’s

cause, low personal inertia, satisfaction with the charity, willingness to accept

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incentives, and a tendency to experience ‘warm glow’ when making donations.

Charity managements can implement measures to nurture these tendencies among

their low value donors. Thus, for example, felt obligation might be stimulated by

including obligation related themes (duty and commitment, moral responsibility to

help others, reciprocation, repaying society for personal benefits received, etc.) in a

charity’s promotional materials. Relationship prone low value donors can be

encouraged via additional relationship management activities, although these

obviously carry a financial cost. Donors high on personal inertia might be developed

in manners comparable to those employed by commercial firms when dealing with

inert customers, e.g. through frequent reminders and by ‘hammering home’ a single

highly salient value proposition. The insignificance of satisfaction with communi-

cations’ in the regression analysis might be associated with the recipients’ failure to

perceive the relevance of the charity’s communications in relation to the above-

mentioned themes. The communications may have covered the correct themes but

the content of the messages might have been incorrect, or the wrong themes may

have been addressed. Another way of accommodating personal inertia might be to

offer recruits the option of contributing through a variable direct debit arrangement

(rather than a fixed value standing order) that contains an escalator clause whereby

the level of monthly contributions is automatically increased at the end of each year.

People with a proclivity to feel a warm glow as a result of giving to charity might

be incited to donate more through the organisation making it as easy as possible for

the donor to experience warm glow, e.g. via the transmission of profuse

congratulatory messages when issuing thanks for gifts. [Hudson (2011) reported

US research which found that thanking donors for being ‘caring’, ‘kind’ or

‘compassionate’ when asking for extra money could increase gifts by as much as

10 %, especially among female donors.] A low value donor’s satisfaction with a

charity and his or her sense of involvement with the cause it supports may be

enhanced if the organisation repeatedly and conspicuously emphasises the charity’s

successes in ameliorating the health, social or other problems afflicting its

beneficiaries. Within the present sample, incentives such as invitations to garden

parties, fetes, etc., and store discounts available from membership of a supporters’

club appear to have been effective devices for increasing donation levels.

Investments in the provision of donor incentives (see Bennett 2007 for details of

the available options) may therefore be worthwhile.

It must be recognised nevertheless that the operationalisation of the above

mentioned measures can be expensive, and that a substantial amount of effort may

be required. Outcomes have to be sufficiently profitable to make investments of this

nature worthwhile. Therefore, it is essential that a charity monitors carefully the

potential break even situations of individual donors, and if necessary deselects

supporters who are unlikely ever to break even. Deselection methods include

reducing the volume of or cancelling entirely mailouts and other communications to

certain individuals, deliberately sending cheaper and lower quality materials to

unprofitable supporters, communicating only via pro forma emails, or openly

demanding that the value of a standing order be raised (see Bennett and Kottasz

2011).

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Limitations and Suggestions for Future Research

A number of limitations apply to the investigation. The study covered donors to a

single charity in a single sector (healthcare) in a single country and only covered

people who continued to give for 4 years. However, the charity in question was a

large national organisation the supporters of which can reasonably be expected to be

similar to UK charity donors as a whole. It would be worthwhile however to

replicate the study among donors to charities in several different sectors. Only a

minority of the total sampling frame participated in the study, although there was no

evidence of early or late response or other forms of bias in the replies. It was not

possible within the confines of an already crowded questionnaire to include items

relating to all the donor behaviour variables (psychological, situational and

economic) that could affect time to break even. A comprehensive model embracing

all possible influences would be so large that it could not be estimated using

conventional techniques. Therefore, a parsimonious selection of potential influences

had to be made. It would be instructive to incorporate additional donor behaviour

variables (innate altruism for instance) in future investigations. The study was

restricted to supporters who remained with a charity for at least 4 years, so lapse

costs accruing to people who cancelled their standing orders before the end of the

fourth year were not considered. The break even situations of individuals who lapse

after 12 months (at which point no agency refund is payable) but before the expiry

of 4 or 5 years, are worthy of investigation. More generally, research is needed into

how best to dovetail standing order monthly giving with appeals to these regular

donors to make additional ad hoc donations. What kinds of new donor products are

required? What are the best techniques for nudging low value supporters towards

increasing their overall levels of donations?

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