0

((" .,-f.,., .. , 11Jj, usttuct:ure: rt:J ((· ·-. -. a··(u£6a·· _·: -· --_._ -.. - · · · e·, fat. ·. · ,.," :Drift .4-/1"_ · ... ·.· ·.···nl_· or-:·, -.~.w--.' ·ame.· ... ·· .. r ~ ·.· .. ~ . ' ·•.· ' ' '.· II .:1 ' ' Vlfi' ' . _- ' -·. '.. . ''.

0

iJJr.• !f<9qert £ .. Lytt(Jft 'Jfotitr;bf tk !4-.P. & ~forena 'Wi(ey Cfi4ir in CiW 'Enginetri'nlf

atrr'~a:s ;tcfriM 'Uni'P~rsity.

2:00p.~,

!Mantfay,, 'Jt6rtiary 111 ,J9~J

Lecture !Room M-· C{a!Jtcm rW,lJ4lit£iartiSJ Jr./ ?Jutrmi Center

·, rtt~as·AttrM 'University · Coll~ge .. S}a.t~ilft,··- 'I~as

INFRASTRUCTURE:

BACK TO CADBURY OR ON TO CAMELOT

In a recent book on "The Discovery of King Arthur," the author1

presented a synthesis of a number of historical and archaeological facts

which had never been brought together before. The author, Geoffrey Ashe,

was able to show the time frame and circumstances when Arthur lived and

even to show letters that had been written to him in his lifetime.

Some may not approve of such a study since it seems to diminish or,

in some way, dishonor a legend. As a legend, Arthur can be a powerful

exemplar of all virtues. Only the imagination can constrain the stories

that can be told and the lessons that can be taken from them. But if he

is an actual historical human being, then Arthur must suffer from the

same flaws and failings that we all have and it diminishes his value as a

mythical hero.

But I hold a different view. If King Arthur is real, then the fond

memories in which he is held are the strongest indications that we have

of his having found the courage and strength to overcome his limits and

his human circumstances, and to perform deeds for which a grateful

Britain still reveres his memory. In my way of thinking, his being real

and human, rather than legendary, makes it even better to point to him as

a tangible example of a flesh-and-blood hero. That is why Geoffrey

Ashe's book intrigued me.

Arthur was born in the 420's and died or disappeared in 470 A.D.,

1 Ashe, G. The Discovery of King Arthur: Henry Holt and Co. New York. 1987.

I

and ruled for around twenty-five years. During his lifetime, Britain was

invaded by waves of barbaric nomads from Saxony in Germany. According to

the archaeological evidence, when the Saxons invaded a town, they

pillaged and looted it and never occupied it. Instead, they let it fall

into ruins.

Arthur was the military leader of a coalition of British towns whose

leaders considered themselves the equal of one another. Arthur was the

first among equals. This may be the reason for the round table where

they met. No one leader had precedence over any other.

Arthur and his army fought a series of battles against the nomads,

forced them to retreat, and won a respite for the Britons. Later, the

Saxons returned, there was more conflict, but according to the evidence,

the later Saxons settled down to live in towns and villages like to

Britons and were good neighbors.

But in the early period when they constituted a threat, Arthur's

efforts and those who united with him scored a temporary victory for the

continuation of permanent community living in England. Arthur was caught

up in a pattern of conflict that was going on all over the world at that

time, between the "pastoral nomads" and the "agriculturalists", as the

Greek philosopher Aristotle called the two cultures in 350 B.C. The

"agriculturalists" lived in permanent settlements and depended on crops

and trade to sustain them. The pastoral nomads thrived on grazing herds

which had to migrate on to new territories when the land had become

exhausted.

There is a suggestion of this conflict in the Book of Genesis in the

story of Cain and Abel. Abel, who was favored by God, and by the Hebrews

2

who wrote of him, kept flocks and was a "pastoral nomad" as were the

Hebrews. On the other hand, Cain tilled the soil and was an

"agriculturalist". His killing of Abel in the open country undoubtedly

recalls an ancient memory of such conflicts which the Hebrews had during

their lives as nomads.

Arthur was caught up in the same pattern but on the side of those

who stood for permanent communities. His place in history and legend was

established by the fond memories his people retained of his heroic

struggles. According to the archaeological evidence, his headquarters

may well have been on the mound in the southwest of England, in Somerset,

known as Cadbury Castle (Figure 1). Excavations around the top of the

large, flat-topped mound indicate that in the time of Arthur, around 450

to 500 A.D., a strong rampart and parapet wall was built entirely around

the summit (Figure 2). Here is a picture of what the wall looked like

(Figure 3). And the southeast gate tower (Figure 4). Here are some of

the excavations as they were being carried out (Figure 5).

There is evidence of buildings and walls at Cadbury both before and

after Arthur's time, and even of a Roman attack, 400 years before

Arthur's time, at the time of Claudius Caesar under the Roman General

Vespasian. However, it appears that Cadbury had reached its grandest

level when Arthur was the king, and Camelot was in its glory.

How did Camelot disappear and what turned it into the ruins of

Cadbury? We don't know because the evidence is inconclusive. There is a

hint in the legends of Arthur concerning the betrayal that led to his

fatal wound. Arthur's tragedy was in having all that he had worked for

deteriorate into disunity and defeat. Although he had shown consistent

3

c z < _, LU a::

BRlTJ.\lN DURlNc; THe SIXTH AND seveNTH ceNTURies

MERCIA

Figure 1. Britain During the Sixth and Seventh Centuries. (Ref. 1).

4

(J1

Figure 2. Model of Cadbury Castle.

2wheeler, M. (Editor), The Excavation of Cadbury Castle, 1966-1970, Thames and Hudson, 1972.

I I I , ~

I

Figure 3. Section of Cadbury Castle Rampart Wall. (Ref. 2).

6

' /

I ··.I '.

' ' ! •

i I :\ i

'- .. _ ... ~-#

· .. , ~ . . . . -.···. : .. · ..

rt and south-west gate-tower. For soml' of the

Figure 4. Reconstruction of Southwest Gate Tower. (Ref. 2).

7

Figure 5. Excavations at Cadbury Castle. (Ref. 2).

8

courage and wisdom, in the end it was a coalition of his enemies and

former friends that brought him down. Camelot may have suffered a

similar fate.

The example of Cadbury provides an object lesson that without

deliberate persevering effort, even our most glorious monuments to

civilization will decay into ruins. It is a lesson as old as the Urban

Revolution.

Civilization's Time Line

It is worth while to review briefly how we got where we are and

where King Arthur's times fit into the historical development of

community life on this planet. The table on the following page shows

approximate dates when the major events in civilizations history have

occurred. It is also illustrated in Figure 6. Before 7000 B.C., all

humans were engaged in hunting and gathering, a migratory life style that

required low population densities. Around 7000 B.C. some groups began to

cultivate plants for food and to live in permanent or semi-permanent

villages. This permitted a higher population density and some

specialization into trades and crafts. In the next 3000 years, the

cultivation of cereal grains which could be stored for long periods of

time and agricultural surplus made it possible for people to live

together in true cities of several thousands in population. Cities of

this size and organization were established around 4000 B.C. once means

of collecting, transporting, and distributing the surplus were developed.

A need for military security from barbaric pastoral nomads gave rise to

the beginnings of the modern state. This period lasted from 4000 B.C. to

1750 A.D., and is the period where we find King Arthur. World population

9

Figure 6. Rise of World and Urban Population. (Ref. 3).

URBAN CIVILIZATIONS TIME LINE

Cultural Event

Hunting and Gathering Before 7000 B.C.

Agricultural Revolution 7000 B.C.

Urban Revolution 4000 B.C. (Time of Conflict between pastoral nomads and agriculturalists)

First Industrial Revolution 1750 A.D.

Second Industrial Revolution 1900 A.D

Third Industrial Revolution 1950 A.D.

11

Significance

Required low population density

Pre-urban communities

Agri cul tura 1 surplus made this possible, people began to concen­trate in cities

Iron, Steam, Coal, Mass Production

Glass, Petroleum, Electricity, Medicine, Public Health

Electronics, Computers, Nuclear, Biotechnology

continued to increase slowly, putting more and more pressure on the

nomads to change their life style. Conflict between pastoral nomads and

agriculturalist cultures as in the opening of the American West

characterized this period. Warfare became organized and professional

leading to military conquest and empires. By the time of the First

Industrial Revolution, beginning around 1750 A.D., world population had

reached 500 million. The industrial use of iron, and steam and coal for

energy, and mass production methods accelerated the pace of urbanization,

bringing with it serious public health and sanitation problems. The

Second Industrial Revolution beginning around 1900 not only saw mass

production and use of glass, of petroleum and electricity for energy, but

significant advances in medicine and public health which greatly reduced

deaths by epidemic. The Third Industrial Revolution began in about 1950

with the use of electronics, computers, and nuclear energy and more

recently, advances in biotechnology. From 1800 to 1970, urban population

had grown from 3 to 37 percent of the world population. 3

Agriculture and cities demand infrastructure and that requires

engineers. No human occupation is so directly involved in creating a

cultural revolution or in responding to the needs it creates than are

engineers. As could be expected, each major revolution created

fundamental changes and re-structuring in the services provided by

engineers. This is illustrated in Figure 7.

The Agricultural Revolution required irrigation and large storage

buildings giving rise to the first agricultural engineers. The Urban

Revolution brought the need for water supply, sanitation, roads and

3 Light, Ivan. Cities in World Perspective. Macmillan. New York. 1983.

12

Figure 7. The Evolution of Engineering.

bridges, and public buildings, requiring the first civil engineers to

emerge. The onset of organized warfare and the need for defense works

required the arts of the military engineer. When we look again at the

feats of mastery over nature that were performed by King Arthur's wizard,

Merlin, we realize that many of them were engineering tasks.

The first major alteration in engineering occurred in the First

Industrial Revolution which saw the rise of Mechanical and Chemical

Engineering. The United States Congress, recognizing the importance of

having capable engineers in this country founded the first U. S.

engineering school at West Point and its brightest students were

commissioned in the Corps of Engineers, including Robert E. Lee and

Douglas McArthur.

With the discovery of oil, and the invention of the automobile and

airplane, the initiation of treated water supply and water-borne sewage,

the revolutions in medicine in anesthetics, in discovering germs as a

cause of infection, a cure for yellow fever and identifying the mosquito

as the bearer of malaria, the generation and transmission of alternating

current electrical power, the beginning of the twentieth century saw the

Second Industrial Revolution and the emergency of Environmental,

Petroleum, Aeronautical, Electrical, and Industrial engineers.

Experimentation with radio, television, radar and atomic and

biological theory in the 1920's and 1930's resulted after World War II in

the Third Industrial Revolution which saw the rise of Electronics,

Computer Science, Nuclear, and Bioengineers and the transformation of

Aeronautical into Aerospace engineers.

All of the types of engineers are involved in some way with

14

industry. In addition, civil, agricultural, and electrical engineers are

directly involved in the infrastructure that not only supports urban

civilization but also the agriculture and industry with which that

civilization supports itself. This succession of revolutions not only

created the need for engineers, but the presence of engineers actually

fueled the revolutions and made the growth of civilization possible.

Human Mobil itv

As the world population grew, urban concentrations began to exceed

one million people. The percentage of people who lived in urban

surroundings increased dramatically after 1800.

Percent of World Population

Date Urban Cities over 100.000

1800 3.0 1.7

1850 6.4 2.3

1900 13.6 5.5

1950 28.2 16.2

1970 36.9 23.8

Urban industrialization has resulted in larger populations, larger

cities, more cities, and more people living in cities. These larger

concentrations of people required more attention to collecting,

transporting, and distributing goods and services, and required humans to

move around over distances within the cities as part of their normal

15

pattern of existence. Living in cities reduced. the distances that had to

be traveled to a minimum, but that minimum distance and the time it took

to cover it kept rising as cities grew larger. The age of the person

played a role in his natural mobility (Figure 8). There is a limit to

the size of the city that is workable without some form of mechanical

assistance in mobility.

As a matter of fact, according to one architect, C. A. Doxiadis,

once the average mobility time exceeds ten minutes men begin looking for

mechanical ways to reduce it. 4 In Figure 9, the first mechanical

assistance came in the form of the horse and buggy. The second

mechanical means, the auto, plus trains, trolleys, subways, etc. was

adopted when the city grew still larger. The third and fourth machines

shown on the graph have not been invented yet.

All of this mechanical assistance comes at a cost. For all of human

history, people have been trying to reduce the amount of personal energy

expended on moving around, acquiring the necessities of life. As shown

in Figure 10, hunting and gathering required a lot more energy than in

later cultures. However, with the growth of urban civilization since

1750, the total energy expended on movement as a percent of the total,

has been rising as shown in Figure 11. Smart vehicles, once they are

developed, may reduce the mobility time somewhat but their major

contribution will be to cut down on the use of energy, and on the

resulting pollution.

Providing the infrastructure for the mobility, the civil and public

4 Doxiadis, C. A. Anthropopolis. City for Human Development. W. W. Norton & Company, New York. 1974.

16

~= ~ n:

IIIII\

·:·

·=·

·:·

·=· ·:·

·:·

·=·

1111111\

·=· :::

·=·

·=·

. 4-Q) ~

. Q) 01

c:l:

-o s:: ttl

s:: 0 ...... +-I ttl r­

::::1 0.. 0

0..

.s::: +-I ...... 3:

>, +-I ...... .-­...... ..c 0

::E

s:: ttl E ::I :c

. co Q) ~ ::I 01 ......

w....

'!­(])

0:::

s:: 0 .,..... +.l 11:1 r­

::::1 CL 0

0..

en s:: .,..... Ul 11:1 (]) S­u s:: ,_.

..s:: +.l .,..... ::: (])

E .,.....

.,.....

.,.....

..c 0

:::E:

0'1

(]) S­::::1 en .,.....

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ·············································································································································································································································· .·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:.·.·.·.·::.·.·.·.·.·:::.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·::::.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·::.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:.·::.·::::.·:.·.·.·:.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·::.·.·:.·.·.·::.·:.·:.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:.·.·.·.·.·:.·.·.·:.·.·.·.·::.·:.·:.·:::::.·.·.·.·.·::.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:.·.·::::.·.·.·:::.·::.·.·.·:.·.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:.·::.·.·::::::::.·::.·.·.·.·:.·.·.· .

.............................................. H· .... ·u· ...... M ...... A ... ..... N ............ M ......... 0 ..... ... S .. ... C ... ... 0. ..... ... t ..... A ... ..... R .......... E ...... N ........ E .... R ... ··a· ... ·y· ..... ..... S ...... p ..... E ... ·.N· ..... T ... ....... F ... ·a· .. ... R ............ 0 .. ·.A .... .... 1. ·u· ... Y: ...... ..... M ......... 0 .... M ....... E ...... M ....... E .... N ...... T ...................................... . ·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-: :: : :: • ·: :: •• -:-:-: • • -:· • • : ·::. ·:· • -:-:: ·-: -:-:-: •• : •• • •• .-: • : • •• .-:-:-: 0 : •• : •• :·: .... :-:-: • • ·:. : -:-:-:- :. :- ·:· : :-:·. .-:·:·:· • : ·: • •• : •• : • : •• : •• : • .... :-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::·:-:::·:·:·:·.·.-:::.:::.:::.:-:-:::·:·:·:::.:-:::::::.:-:-:-:-:::·:·.·.-:::-.-.·:·:·:·.-.·::: ...... ·:::·:·:·:-:-:::-:-:-:::::.:::::::.:-:-:-:::-:::.:-:::·:·:·:·:-:::::.:::·:·.·:·:::::.:::::::::.:·.·.·:::.:::::::·:-:-:-:::.:::-:-:::::.:::::::::.:-:::::·:·.·.·:::.:-:::·:-:::::::·:-:-:-:-:::::.:::-:-:-:-:-:::.:::::::::.:-:-:-:-:::·:·.·.-:::::-:-:::-:-:-:-:::-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:::-:-:::.:-:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. ············································································································································································································································· ·············································································································································································································································· ············································································································································································································································· ·.·.·:.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:.·.·.·.·:.·.·.·.·.·::.·::.·.·.·.·::.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·::.·::.·::::.·.·.·.·.·.·:::::.·.·.·:.·:::::::.·.·:.·::::.·.·.·:.·.·.·.·:::.·.·.·.·:.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:.·.·.·.·:.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:::.·.·::::::.·:.·:.·.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·:::.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·:::.·:::::::.·.·.·.·:.·::.·:.·.·:.·:.·:.·.·::::.·::::::::::.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·::::::.·.·.·.·:::.·.·: ·············································································································································································································································· ············································································································································································································································· ·············································································································································································································································· ·········································1·oo.·························································································································································································· ········································· . ··························································································································································································· :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: •• : •• · •• ••· ••• :::::::l::::::::i;:;:;:i§.0:'1.0;'Y.:;i::::i\~;:;~~~:ii::~:'Y.~i0:'ff.gf.~ii::i;:;:;i(~i.ii:;:;:i~"±"~~:Z(£~~~i;\~:'Y.~i::f.(;;j§§§!§&!7.0'.0::i~'7.0~.0§::;~::i;:§;i:;i::~:i::::~iii::;:i;f@::;~;~§!!!!§!i.ii\~;:;:;:;:;:;i:;:;:;:;i:;:;~;::ii:i:f(4ii'!.W.~ ····················································· ····················································· ····················································· ····················································· ....................................................................................... 9. ···a·· ..... .. ........................................... . .. . ............................................ .. ::. · .. :::: :::::::::::::: .. ::::::::::::::::::::. . . ::: ..................................................... ····················································· ····················································· ····················································· ····················································· ....................................................................................... &. · · o· · · ......

:.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·::.·.·.·.·::.·::.·.·.·:.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·. . .·.·. ..................................................... ····················································· ····················································· ····················································· :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::7{-t:: ····················································· ····················································· ····················································· ····················································· ·····················································

; ~~}II/II}}IIII}}}~f{{{~9{~ ttttttttttttt~~tt~ttt~~~$.8./~ : :::·tiii·.·.i :-::if·.·~;:: :IIW.8:I ····················································· ..................................................... ····················································· ····················································· :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::3.0::::: ····················································· ·····················································

································ ································ ································ ·.·:.·.·:::::.·::.·.·:.·.·.·.·.·:.·.·;.:::::::: . .............................. . ································ ................................ ································ ································ ································· ................................ ································· ································ ································ . .............................. . ································ . .............................. . ································ ................................ ································ ································ ································ , .............................. . ································ ······························· ................................ ............................... , .............................. . ·······························

................................ , .............................. . ................................ , .............................. . ................................

................................ ································

{{{{{:}~{{{{{{{{{{{{{{:~:~:}h~4~~~~~~#.({{{{{#~#.~~Q.~~{{{{{{{:~:~~~~:~:~:~:~:~~~:~:J:q}}Y;~~:~:~:~a~~t.~~:~:}j~~9.~~{:?J~t~?~:~:t~~~~:~:~{{{:~:~:~:?~:~:~:~:??~{:r:~:

:: ·::I :::-:_IIIII-I : ::::::: ::::::III:I:t·:::··-.I~mmttti:III·II~·I:·II :I I ;:E.II::-g:·&tiiii·· · ·.:::::m::-:::: .. :IIIIIIII·I-II·I.:ii-I:I-IIIIIIi:t:iii Figure 10. Human Muscular Energy Spent for Daily Movement. (Ref. 4).

·············································································································································································································································· ············································································································································································································································· ·············································································································································································································································· ············································································································································································································································· ·············································································································································································································································· ············································································································································································································································· ·············································································································································································································································· ············································································································································································································································· ..... : .... :: .... : ...... :: ..... ·. · ................ : ...... :. ·::: ................ : .. : ............ : ...... : .. : ...... : ........... ·. ·: .. :: ............. ·:: ... ·. · ... · ... · ...... ::: .. ::: ................. · ... ·::: ... ·. · ........ : ..... · ....... · .. : :. ·:. · .. ::::: .. :: :. ·. ·. ·. ·. ·. ·. ·. · .. :: ::::. ·. · ... ·. ·. · .. :::::: ... ·. ·. ·. ·. · .... : .. : .............. : ........ :: :: .... :: :: ...... : ... ·. ·: .. : .. : .. :. ·:. · ..... ·:: ::::::: .. ·······················eN· ·eR·a·rt···g·p·e·N· T··FoR··mcml.\L····M· ·ov· ·eM· e·N· T·········reA··NsP·o.·Rm1.\tr.IO. .. N ............... . ······················ . . . ... . . ... . ... . ..... . . . . . . ... .... . . . . . . . . . ............... . ······················· . . .. . .... . . .. .... .. . ..... .. . . . ..... .. . . . . .. ..... .... . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . .............. .

:)~{{{:~:~:~:~:~:~:~:~:~:~:~:~:~::::::::::::\:::::::::::~:/:}:::::::}:/:~:~:~:::::::::~:}:\:::·:·:·:·:::::}·:·{{:.:::{::::::::::·:::::.:::::::::.:.:::::::::::::./:::::·:::.:;:;:::::::.:::·:::.:::::;:;:::::::.:}·:·:·:::::·:·:·:·:::.:·:·:·:·:·:::::·/:·:::~: ···························································A·S···A···P·E··R· ·c· ·e··N·t·"A·GE····O.F:····T·O.· f:E"A·L····E··NE··RG· ¥····················································· ·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·::.. . . .-:-:: .. ·-:-:-: ::: .. -: ·: · ... : ... ·. -:· :. . . : .. -:·:·. ·: . :::·:·:·:·: -:. ·: .-: ... ·. ::.:-:-: .. : :. : ... ·: .. ·. ·: :-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:· ·············································································································································································································································· -:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:· ·············································································································································································································································· ············································································································································································································································· ................................................................................. ·".iij·o· ···a·· ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ..

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::9;.)::::: ····················································· ....................................................................................... &. · · ·o· · ...... : .. ::::::::. ·::::::::::: :::::::::::::::: .. ::::. . :: . ..................................................... ..................................................... ····················································· ·····················································

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::ztr::: ····················································· ····················································· ·····················································

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::20::::: ····················································· ...................................................... ····················································· ...................................................... ····················································· ..................................................... , ············································1·o··· ·:·:·:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:·:·:·:·:·: -: ·.·:·:· . ..................................................... , ····················································· ..................................................... , ····················································· ·····················································

································ ................................ ································ ······························· ................................ ·······························

································ ······························· ······························ ································ ································ , ............................... . ................................

································ , ............................... . ································ , ............................... . ································ ································ ································ ································ ································ ................................ ································ ································

······························ ............................. ·····························

································ ······························ ································ ································· ································

································ ................................

······························· ................................

·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·1· .. ·:·:·o· .... o .... o .... ·:·:o .... ·oo.· ... : .... ·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:t ... oo .......... :·:a .... ·:o .... ·a····:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:a: ... : .. o .. ·:oo ......... :·:·:·:·:·:·1··:·1· ... 7 ..... o .... ·:·:·:·:·::1·: .. ·:·:ooo.:.·.·.·.: .... ·:·:·:·:·:·:1:.:a ...... ,. .... n ..... :.:·:·:·:·:1 ... :a ..... :o ... :.o.· ... :.:·:·:·:·:1 ... :.a· .... 7 ..... o .... :.:·:·:·:1 ... :.a· .... u ... :o ..... :.:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:· .............................................. .. . ........... . ················ .. ..... . .. .... .. ..... . ..... ..... . .... ···························· ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::.}: ...... : ....... :~: .... : ......... :::::::::::::::::::::::: ........ : .... t ..... : ....... :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ..... ~ .. : ...... : ..... ::::::::::: . .::: .. :: .. ::: .... :::::::::::.} ..... : ....... ..::::::::::::: .. : ..... : .. : ..... ::::::::::::: .. : ....... : ...... ::::::::::::: .. : ..... : .. :: ..... :::::::::: .. : .............. ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: · · · · · · · · · · ·· ···· · · ··· · · · · ····· ·· · · · · · · · · · ·· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·aoo.··:ooo:·· ·· · · · · ······ ·m· ooo··· · · · · · · · ·········a· c.········ ·"A· ·o · · ·· · · · · ··· ·· ···· ·· · · ·· ··· · · · · · · · · · ··· · · · · · · · ·· · ·· ··· · ·· ··· ··· ····· ········ ·· · ·· · · · · ·· ·· .............................................................. . . .............. . . ··················· .............. ························································································· -:-:-:-: ·:. :·:.: ·:·:· :-:·:·:·: -:·:.: -:-:-:. :·:.:. :-:·:·:·:· :-:-:.:-:-:.:.: ·:. :-:·:·: ·:·:. :·:.:. :-:-:-:.:.:.:-:.: ·:·: ·: ·:. :-: .... :. :i .. : .... ::-: ·:·: ·:. :-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-: ·:· ..... +. : :. : .... : -:-:.:.:.: -:·:·: -:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-: ... ~. : .. ~:-:-:-:-:· :-: ·. :. :·: ... ~:-:·:·:·:·:· :-:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:.: ·:·:-:-:-: ·:·:. :·:. :-:· :-:-:·:·:·:·:·: ·:.:. :·:.: ·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:· :· :-:-:-:· :-: ·: ·:. :·:· :·:· :-:. :-:·:·:·:·:·:·: -:·:·: ·: ·:·:·:-:-:-:-: ·:·:. ·············································································································································································································································· ············································································································································································································································· ·············································································································································································································································· -:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:-:-:-:-:-:-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·

Figure 11. Energy Spent on Mobility and Transportation as a Percentage of Total Energy. (Ref. 4).

health services in urban communities and maintaining them in good

condition begins to cost more per capita as the perimeter around the

concentration of people grows, as shown in Figure 12.

These costs are based upon the entire urban area being productive

and able to produce the needed per capita tax rate. As the interior

portion of the city decays, its infrastructure deteriorates or is under

capacity, the costs per capita increase exponentially, simply because the

geometric layout of the city makes it more expensive to provide mobility,

civil and public health services. This is a negative cost of allowing

the infrastructure to become inoperative.

So there is a double cost as cities grow beyond about 100,000

population: one is to provide infrastructure to a more widespread area

and the second is to make up for the underproductive, deteriorated

infrastructure in the interior of the city.

At this point, the sobering reflections of Josef Konvitz in his book

"The Urban Millennium" 5, should be considered.

The problem of obsolescence and renewal is not only a function

of technological and social change, which reduces demand for certain

kinds of buildings and locations and increases demand for others,

but also of the cost and effort involved in modifying existing

buildings and districts compared with the cost and effort of new

construction. 6 It is obvious that infrastructure systems contribute

to these conditions directly in transportation facilities; and

5Konvitz, J. W. The Urban Millennium. Southern Illinois University Press, Carbonda 1 e, Ill . , 1985.

6Moore, P. W. "Pub 1 i c Services and Resident i a 1 Deve 1 opment in a Toronto Neighborhood, 1880-1915", Journal of Urban History, Vol. 9, 1983.

21

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..

~ ~ ; . . . . . . . . . . .

: . • . ·! • :· ·: . . . . : • : !· : ·. !· . . . .· . . ·.· ·. . . . . . . . . . . . . :: : :: :::

... :. : :: : : : : : : : : . : : : ~:=:. =====. =====. ~::=:. =====. ::::: ~::=:. :====.· ;::.: ::: :~;~~: j ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! : . . . . .. . . . . .

. . .. :::: : .. : ::: :: ~n~n~~n~n . ....... . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ......... . . . . . . ......... . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. j~j~j~jii ~ j~j~j~ ~~~~~~~~; ~ ~~~~~~

!~lii~ililil

. ······

. ······

. ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . : :·:·:·: • ! ....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

llii!!!il lilililiiiiliii ~

ilii1 1 !:~ill! i ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

~~~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~ ~ .· .....

!l!!!l!!! ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

indirectly in the degree to which regulation affects the cost and

time of rehabilitation, and in the degree to which certain fixed

services cannot be expanded or modified in a building or district or

district to accommodate new uses. In America, the costs of renewal

or rehabilitation already began to exceed the economic potential of

modernized buildings by the 1930s. Urban development before modern

infrastructures encouraged redevelopment and conversion to new uses,

but infrastructures have provided people with attractive

alternatives to redevelopment. 7

In one sense, the problem of obsolescence and renewal is a

problem of capitalism when the private sector no longer generates

sufficient economic growth to make renewal and redevelopment

profitable. Yet, public funds are not adequate, either. Even the

major increase in public expenditures in the last twenty years has

only made a dent in the problem. 8 Problems in European cities are

different in their specific characteristics-for example, much of the

blight in the Paris region is in the suburbs rather than the central

city-but not in their root causes. Before solutions can be

contemplated, there must first come a recognition that the creation

of blighted areas which are difficult to renew and redevelop is not

just the result of some social, economic, and political factors

which converge in particular circumstances, but is instead intrinsic

to and inherent in city building in the twentieth century.

7Lewis, J. P. Building Cycles and Britain's Growth. Macmillan, London, 1965.

8Lampard, E. E. Urbanization of the United States. Villes en Mutation, XIX-XX siecles. Quoted in Ref. 4.

23

The problem of adaptability and renewal ultimately affects

infrastructure systems themselves; indeed, the difficulty of

modifying fixed systems such as road networks and sewer and water

mains contributes to the problem of obsolescence and renewal in

smaller-scale districts and in individual buildings, and reinforces

other constraints on adaptability, such as zoning.

The infrastructure itself poses ultimate questions of

obsolescence and renewal. Whether from lack of maintenance or from

social, economic, and technological obsolescence, many aspects of

infrastructure systems will have to be changed, rebuilt, or

abandoned in the years to come. Several systems, all at the same

time, are approaching the end of their useful life cycles and now

require attention: superhighways built thirty years ago, sewer and

water mains built a half-century ago, bridges built a hundred years

ago. The costs involved are seemingly astronomical.

In many cities, adequate maps of infrastructure systems do not

exist, and there are no standardized replacement/repair analyses.

"Only the most limited information exists about various techniques

to extend the life of present facilities, or about conservation and

cost-cutting mechanisms."9 We know in general that almost half the

bridges in the United States must be rebuilt or abandoned, that

nearly 320,000 kilometers of highway need some level of capital

investment in the 1980s, and that one-half of the nation's

communities have wastewater treatment systems that cannot support

9Choate, P. "Special Report on U.S. Economic Infrastructure," U.S. House of Representatives. Quoted in Ref. 4.

24

further economic expansion. The cost of maintaining existing levels

of service in America has been put at between $2.5 and $3 trillion,

but at current expenditure levels less than a third of the funds

will be available.

Rebuilding the urban infrastructure will be vastly more

difficult than its original construction because the conditions that

favored its construction have altered. First, few cities are

growing rapidly; many of the largest, where the infrastructure has

deteriorated most severely, are stable or declining in size.

Second, the costs of urban development have risen enormously, a

reflection in part of larger scale and technological complexity.

The regulatory framework, very modest eighty years ago, now imposes

additional social costs, retards construction, and politicizes many

decisions. Third, energy costs are likely to rise in real terms.

Other resource-related factors may affect rebuilding. "The losses

of obsolescence cannot simply be reckoned as the costs of

rebuilding ... They may also include the exhaustion of resources

which cannot be replaced." 1° Finally, public attitudes on such

matters as historical preservation and environmental safety affect

judgments about what should be preserved and what should be rebuilt.

Public recognition of the infrastructure problem has been slow

in coming. As a result, the problems may get much worse before

action is taken. The cost of rebuilding the infrastructure is so

high that it will not be met.

If the infrastructure is not maintained, supporting an active and

10Lynch, K. A Theory of Good City Form. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass, 1981.

25

productive populace, it not only deteriorates but also it contributes to

increasing the costs to the remaining population in an urban area.

Continued neglect of this problem can grow exponentially into a massive

problem -- one so large, in fact, that it can mean a reversal of the

urbanization trends since 1750. What it means in concrete detail is a

matter for speculation.

The science fiction movies that have appeared in the last decade or

so that are cast some time in the future in the aftermath of a nuclear

war show what may well be the result of our continued neglect of

infrastructure. In these movies, humans have returned to small

communities of warring nomads living in the wreckage of destroyed cities.

This picture can actually be brought about without nuclear warfare at

all!

Just simply by neglecting the infrastructure, the essential support

characteristic of our post-industrial civilization, not only blight and

deterioration, but also epidemics and violence from urban nomads will

return to work their inevitable destruction. The same ultimate picture

will be produced with the only real difference being that it will happen

slowly, not cataclysmically, imperceptibly at first and then more rapidly

as the pace of the deterioration of the infrastructure accelerates.

Perhaps we need another Rachel Carson to tell this story.

But the story need not be told if we deliberately and consciously

choose to enter our Fourth Industrial Revolution, the Infrastructure

Revolution.

26

Infrastructure - What Is It?

Let's pause briefly to describe in some detail what modern

infrastructure amounts to. It can be classified into six groups 11:

1. Roads group

2. Transportation services group

3. Water group

4. Waste management group

5. Buildings and recreation group

6. Energy production and distribution

The groups may each be further classified as follows:

Roads Group

This includes:

1. Highways

2. Bridges

3. Streets

Transportation Services Group

This group includes:

1. Transmit

2. Rail

3. Parts

4. Airports

5. Lighting

6. Signing and control

group

11 Grigg, Neil S. Infrastructure Engineering and Management. Wiley and Sons, New York. 1988.

27

Water Group

This group includes:

1. Water supply including dams, reservoirs,

treatment and distribution

2. Waste water including collection, treatment, and

disposal

3. Waterways and navigation

4. Flood control and drainage

5. Irrigation

Waste Management Group

This group includes:

1. Solid waste management system including

collection, land fill, and incineration

2. Hazardous waste containment

3. Recycling and reuse systems

Buildings and Recreation Group

This group includes:

1. Schools and hospitals

2. Police, fire, jails and

3. Public buildings

4. Public housing

5. Parks and playgrounds

6. Recreation facilities

7. Stadiums

28

prisons

Energy Production and Distribution Group

This group includes:

1. Electricity generation and distribution

2. Natural gas production and distribution

As noted before, the features that all of these have in common is

that they deteriorate and with the growth of population or

industrialization, they reach and exceed capacity. It is worth

considering the deterioration of infrastructure more in detail for it

offers a clue as to how we can do something positive about it and

actually, with time and perseverance, to take control of its effects on

our destiny.

Patterns of Infrastructure Deterioration

While the subject is very detailed and complex, the overall patterns

that infrastructure deterioration follow can be understood by taking a

simple example of one element of infrastructure, the light bulb, as in

Figure 13. If someone started with 100 light bulbs and turned them all

on at the same time and recorded when each of them burned out, the

distribution of light bulb life times would look like the diagram in

Figure 13.

Now if that person replaced a light bulb each time one burned out,

the number of light bulbs to be replaced would form the oscillating

pattern shown in Figure 14. With times much greater than the life of a

light bulb, the pattern begins to stabilize.

Infrastructure is really more complex than this. There are usually

29

:·. 0 0 •••

·=·. ·.·.

: :=:·:·:=:

·=·

·=· :·· ,•, '•' '•' '•' ••. •!· •.• ••• ·!·

·!· •,• ·=· '•' :;. •!·

··: ·!·

:·· ·!·

:;:;:;.;-::::::::;::: ....... . . . . . . .

·:·

'•' •,•

·=· ·.• :=: ·=· •:o •,•

'•' :··

!•! !·.

·=· ·:·

·!· •,•

'•' :;. ·!· !·. ::· ·!·

'•' '•' '•'

·!·

·!· ·!·

.... ... : ·:·

!· •.

·!· '•' '•' ;o• ·!·

•!•

. . ·!·

·!· :;. .·: ·:· '•'

·!·

•!·

·!· •• •!

.....

•• 'o'

••• 0 •••• • 0 •••••••

• • • 0 •••• . . . . . . . . .

. ....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • • • • • 0 •••• . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~l~~~l~~~~ ......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

:~..;.;..;...;..;.;.; • ..; • .;. • .;.. .;..;.;.; • ..; • .;. • .;.. ;..;. .;.; • ..; • .;.. o!ll: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : ,.•.•,.:",.·.·.·.·,.",.·.·.A.IoAAAAAAAioAA ••• '•!•Oo'•' •••

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ; ; ;; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; : AloAAioAAAioAAA AAAAAioAAioAAA

AloAAAioAAAAAA AAAAioAAAAioAA

AloAAioAAAAAAA AAAAioA ... AioAAA

A lo A A A lo '"''"'A'"' A lo

......... .......... . . . . . . . . . .......... . . . . . . . . . AAAAAAio

1o '"' '"' A A lo lo loAA ... AAio

AAAAAAA AAAAAAio

A '"'A lo A 1o lo A A A A A A lo ~:~nnnnnnnr A#loloAAAA . . . . ·.· ...

. . . . . . . . . . . • • • • • • • • • • 0 •• . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

• 0 •••••••••••••• . . . . . . . . . ................ ~ ;~: ~ ~; ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ;~ ~; ~ ~ ~ ~ ;~ ~ ~ ~~.

........ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0 ............... . . . . . . . . .

• • • • • 0 •••••••••

::;:;:;:;.; ::::::::::::::::::

= ~=~ ~ ~ ~n ~~ ~ ~ ~~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ n ~ ~~.:::::::::::: ~ ~ ~; ~; ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~ ~

'o! : ·.· :=· ..

........ ....... • • • • • 0 • . . . . . . . . ....... ... . . . . . .

=:·.·.·.·.····· ....... . . . . . . . . • • 0 •••• . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........

: .·: ···.· . . ·.·.·.·!·.·=·

......... . . . . . . . . . . ·:·:::::::::::.:.:. . ........ . . ....... . ......... •• 0 •••• . . . . . . . . . .......... . . . . . . . . . .......... . . . . . . . . . • 0 0 •• 0 •••• .......... . ....... . . . . . . . . . . . .......... . . . . . . . . . . ........ . . ....... . . ........ . . ....... . . ........ . . ....... . . ........ . . ....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......... . . . . . . . . . ~HHHHHHF~;n ::::::::::::::::::: ·.·.·.•.•o•.o,o ... ......... . . . . . . . . . . ......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . : . .... · ..

... ... !•'.

... ··:

. .....

...0

.,.... _J

ttl

4-0

QJ

E .,.... +l QJ 4-.,.... _J

QJ ~ 1-

QJ s... :::s 0) .,.... u..

. Vl

...0 r­~ co +J -'= 0'1 ......

.....J

+J s:: QJ E QJ u ttl r-0.. QJ

0::::

4-0

s.. QJ

...0 E ~ z

numerous alternatives to consider, some being maintenance and others

rehabilitation or replacement, each having its own costs and best times

or conditions in which to apply it. The overall costs are greatly

affected by the choices of alternatives and timing that are made. This

is illustrated in Figure 15 in which the best time and best alternative

are found when the annual cost curve reaches its minimum point. Each of

the steps in the maintenance or rehabilitation costs curve represents

another alternative treatment applied at the appropriate stage of

deterioration. The annual costs will rise if the wrong thing is done at

the wrong time, as usually happens when maintenance and rehabilitation

are unplanned, and no effort is made to select a best time and a best

alternative.

Figure 16 shows the difference in annual costs that occur under the

two different conditions: unplanned and planned with optimization. No

time scale is shown because it depends on the life scale of each type of

infrastructure. The peaks are one life-time apart. If all of the waste

is eliminated, the percentage by which the funds may be used better may

be estimated from actual experience with highway pavements, one of the

more advanced elements of infrastructure in planning and optimization.

PERCENT BETTER USE OF THE FUNDS

PERCENT

PLANNING 20 - 40%

OPTIMIZATION 10 - 20%

TOTAL 30 - 60%

Now compare these estimates with estimated needs and resources for

32

Figure 15. Infrastructure Annual Cost Patterns.

J ..

···········•••ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooOooooo•••••••••••ooooooooooooooooooo•••········••ooooooooooOOooooooooooooo••··············•·o···························••ooooooooooo••••············································••o••······ oooooooo••••oooooo•••·······································••ooooooooooooo•••················••o•••••·•o···························································································································••ooooooo oooooooo•••••••oo••····················································o·····················•ooooo•••·····································································••o•o••······••••o••··············································· ooooooooOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoOOOOOoOOoOooooooooo•••··························································o··············••oooo••••••••••····································•••o••·········································••o••··············

rr~ttttttt{1·:·~~~·N:·::::::~-:-:{13·:·::::::\~·EI:-:::::::·:\I.A~?:·:·::rs·:::::::··:·::rF~r·:·\?8:·:::::::·::~~~-tJ:·:}{\~:C3.::::~;~;~:::::1F~~~~-:-:rrLJ·:·r?\~·e:·:::::::·:·:{15·::::::::::rr~{~:::·:::··:·:~(fl~;::::::::::/s.·::-:::::·::~!Fr·:·:r\:e·:·::::::::?M:·:·::~r·:·:·rrr13·::::~;~;;:::}m::·:~;;;~:~:·:\s:::·::::::·:::ITE;(\\s::::·:::··:·::rrrrrrr~tt ···················· .. 0 . 000000 ... .. . ... .. .... ... .. ... . .... .. ... ... .. ... . .......... ... ... ... .... .. ... ...... . .......................... ·········•·o••····· ·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·: . .-:· .. :·:·: .. :-: . .-:·:·:·:·:· . .-:·:·:· .. : . .-:·:·:· .. :0 .. :: . .-:·:·: . .-:·:·:· . .-:·:·:·. 0 :-:0 .. :: . .-:·:· ... : .. ::·:· .. :·:·:·:· .. :: . .-:·:· .. :·:·:· .. :-: ...... :•:•:o:o:·:· .. :: . .-:·:·:·. 0 :·:·:· .. 0:: . .-:·:· .. :-:·:·: ...... :· .. :· .... : . .-:·:·:·:·:·:· ... : .. ::·: .. :: . .-:·:· .. :: .. .-:·:· .. :-:·:· .. :: . .-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:· :-:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·: oooooooo•••••••••••••••••oooooooooo•········································································································································•ooooo••························································· ooooooooOOOOOOOOoOOOoOooOoooooooo•••··················••o•••••··················••ooooooooooo••··································································••ooooooooooooooo••••························································ ooooooooooOOOooooooooOoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo••··································•oooooo••····································································••o••••··································································· oooo••·•······························••o••············•o•························••ooooOOooo•••····························································••o••···········o·······••oooooooooooooo••········································ ····················••••ooooooooooooooooooo•••························••o••••••••••••O•o•••••••••••oooooooooooooooooooOoooOoooooo••••·························•o••·····················•o••································•oooooooooooo•••·• ······································••o•····················••o••••••••o••····························································•o••·································································································· ····················••oooooooooooo••··························••o•••••·····························•o••·································•o••···········•o•••················••oooo•••••••••OoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooOOoo••••········ ··········••ooooooooooooooooooooooo••·························••o•···········································································································•ooooo••·································••o····················· ............ o.oooooooOoOooooooo•••························••o•··················•••ooooo••••··································••oo•••••······································································································ ····················································································································•o•••••••••••o••••····························································••o••·······································

Figure 16. Infrastructure System Annual Costs With and Without Management.

various infrastructure elements that were made for the Joint Economic

Committee12 and National Council on Public Works Improvement 13 for the

period between 1983 and 2000.

NEEDS AND RESOURCES ($ BILLIONS)

Infrastructure Element Needs Resources Short Fall Percent

Highways and Bridges 720 455 265 35 Other Transportation 178 90 88 49 Water Supply and Distribution 96 55 41 43

Wastewater Collection and Treatment 163 114 49 30

TOTALS 1157 714 443 38

The job of technically managing and engineering the infrastructure

can do a lot to narrow the gap between the needs and the resources, as

can be seen from the two previous tables, but it remains to be seen just

what it takes to do a good job of engineering and managing. Also, it

must be stated that while this is the most important part, it is not all

of what is required to fuel the Fourth Industrial Revolution. A

description of a more complete strategy is given later.

12 University of Colorado at Denver. Hard Choices: A report on the Increasing Gap Between America's Infrastructure Needs and Our Ability to Pay for Them. Denver, February, 1984.

13 Nation a 1 Council for Pub 1 i c Works Improvement. The Nation's Pub 1 i c Works: Defining the Context. Washington, D. C., October, 1986.

35

Infrastructure Engineering and Management

What does it take to do a sound and thorough job of the engineering

management of infrastructure? It can be summarized into five steps:

1. Condition Data Collection. It is impossible to manage any

infrastructure network without knowing what you have (inventory)

and what its current condition is. This latter is obtained

periodic monitoring.

2. Data Storage, Retrieval, and Display. Once the data are

collected, they must be stored in an easily retrievable form that

can be displayed graphically. This visual element is important

because it gives human judgement its first opportunity to view

both the big picture and the details of the problems as they

exist.

3. Modeling, Needs Projection, and Future Conditions. The data must

be used to develop mathematical models of the various forms of

deterioration that occur. This requires an engineering

understanding of each deterioration process so that an accurate

diagnosis is possible. Models can then make reasonable

predictions of future conditions and needs, and appropriate

repair, maintenance, rehabilitation, reconstruction, or

retrofitting selections can be made.

4. Optimization and Decision Support. There are numerous methods of

assisting the engineering manager in sorting through the numerous

tasks and alternatives and selecting the best one at the right

time while remaining within the available resources. The

selection of the best method and a careful definition of what is

36

to be achieved is crucial to the success of this step.

5. Decisions and Action. The four previous steps will be of little

use if they are not carried into action. This requires that the

entire community and not just the managers understand the

importance of the process and support it. The managers must not

only believe in it but carry it into action. Action requires

contingent funding to be available to capitalize upon

opportunities to optimize and cut long range costs.

Each of these five steps will require some research and development

work in order to be in a position to do the job well, to capitalize on

the equipment and techniques that have already been developed in other

fields, and to forge ahead and develop others that are not yet available.

A brief review of each of the five steps shows some of the opportunities

that are already at hand.

1. Condition Data Collection. In both the inventory and monitoring

process, infrastructure engineering can make use of most, if not all, of

the technology that is currently being used in the War in the Persian

Gulf. The following list gives some examples:

1. Geographical positioning system (GPS)

2. Infrared

3. Laser reflection

4. Holographic ultrasonics

5. Radar

6. Ultraviolet

7. Video and infrared imaging

37

8. Wave propagation: near and far field

The full range of the electromagnetic spectrum and then some! And all of

the vehicles to carry the instrumentation, data recording, and data

reduction equipment while the data are being collected. The need for

automated inventory and monitoring equipment is largely because it is

either unsafe (traffic and waste management) on inaccessible (water,

waste water, and storm sewers) to humans.

2. Data Storage, Retrieval and Display. Some of the techniques

that are ready for adaptation to uses in infrastructure management are:

1. Laser disk data storage

2. Geographical Information System (GIS)

3. Modeling, Needs Projections, Future Conditions. This step

requires knowledge not only of mathematical modeling techniques but a

sound diagnostic understanding of infrastructure deterioration processes

and of new materials and construction and retrofitting capabilities, some

of which are listed below:

1. Expert systems

2. Markov and semi-markov processes

3. Stochastic processes

4. Material properties, deterioration mechanisms

5. Reliability concepts

6. New organic and inorganic materials

7. Construction, recycling, repair and retrofitting methods

38

Much research and developmental work remains to be done in these

subjects. There are numerous opportunities for capital investment in

this entire area.

4. Optimization and Decision Support. In this area, much that has

been developed in the fields of economics and operations research needs

to be transferred and adapted to serve the purposes of infrastructure,

including:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Utility theory

Linear and non-linear programming

Integer programming

Dynamic programming

Heuristic methods of optimization

5. Decisions and Action. This may be the step requiring the most

extensive efforts, including education and training and working out

innovative public and private partnership methods of financing.

The list given above shows much that is already available in other

areas that can be readily adapted to the needs of infrastructure

engineering management. This is really only a part, though perhaps the

most important part, of an overall strategy to take control of the

destiny of our urban civilization. The list below is a strategy for

improving America's public works recommended by the National Council on

39

Public Works lmprovement14 to the President and Congress of the U. S. in

1988:

No single approach is adequate to ensure the

future viability of America's infrastructure. A

broad range of measures is necessary to make a

meaningful difference by the turn of the century.

Specifically, these should include:

• A national commitment, shared by all levels of

government and the private sector, to increase

capital spending by as much as 100 percent

above current levels.

• Clarification of the respective roles of the

federal, state, and local governments in

infrastructure construction and management to

focus responsibility and increase

accountability;

• More flexible administration of federal and

state mandates to allow cost-effective methods

of compliance;

• Accelerated spending of the federal highway,

transit, aviation, and waterways trust funds;

• Financing of a larger share of the cost of

public works by those who benefit from

services;

14 Fragile Foundations: A Report on America's Public Works. National Council on Public Works Improvement. Supt. of Documents. Washington, D. C. 1988.

40

• Removal of unwarranted limits on the ability of

state and local governments to help themselves

through tax-exempt financing:

• Strong incentives for maintenance of capital

assets and the use of low-capital techniques

such as demand management, coordinated land-use

planning, and waste reduction and recycling;

• Additional support for research and development

to accelerate technological innovation and for

training of public works professionals; and

• A rational capital budgeting process at all

levels of government.

What can be said of public works may also be said of private

industrial infrastructure as well.

A few more suggestions are warranted at this point, to emphasize the

importance, not of the problems we face, but really of the opportunities

that lay within our grasp on this historical threshold of the Fourth

Industrial Revolution.

We need the vision to initiate a national public works program on

the scale in both time and financing of the Interstate Highway System to

assist in rebuilding America, and a correlative thrust in private

industry. The numerous benefits that will accrue in new methods,

products, and services will afford opportunities for genuine growth in

our universities and our construction and industrial enterprises as well

as for a more humane standard of living for people all over the world.

41

When the war is over and peace returns, we can hopefully spend the

"peace dividend" in:

a. retraining of military personnel prior to their being released

from active duty, giving them practical experience in managing

the infrastructure of the army posts and air and naval bases

around the world

b. research and development to convert wartime technology to its

use in infrastructure engineering management

We need the people to carry out this program. We need our brightest

and most capable people to devote their talents, the very same talents

and ideas that we are using in the Persian Gulf now, to the arts of peace

and commerce in support of civilization. We need for all people, but our

young people especially, to recognize not only the opportunities that

this necessary re-orientation of society creates for them but also its

fundamental importance for civilization. The human race has never had to

face this kind of frontier before.

Knights of the Twenty First Century

And here, the picture of Arthur and his gallant knights returns,

rushing upon us with warm, symbolic memories - symbols of the greatest

and most noble, most courageous and most persevering of all that humans

can achieve.

Arthur was faced with profound uncertainty, and so are we. Arthur

had to contend with human failings -- misunderstanding, opposition, even

betrayal, --and so undoubtedly will we. Arthur was caught in a

crosstide of conflict between cultures, one on the decline and another,

42

the reluctant, embryonic hope for the future. Arthur, in his turbulent

circumstances, created something entirely new -- never seen before - the

order of the round table. As a symbol of human equality of purpose, it

engendered what it symbolized -- the uncommon honor of preserving and

advancing civilization. We, at a rare juncture in human history, have

the chance to follow his lead.

The dragons of old are no more fearful than the scales and claws of

the problems we face, but our combat will not be with lance and sword;

instead, our weapons will be the civil and peaceful arts yet to be

devised by our hands and our minds. Our holy grail is more tangible, but

no less demanding of human kindness, creativity and nobility in its

search.

What we need is a new knighthood to stand forth -- the knights of

the twenty first century. This is the new order that will teach us once

more the meaning of the motto left to us by the founders of our Republic

on the Great Seal of the United States: "Nevus ordo seclorum." -- "A New

Order of the Ages"

43