Eye on Alberta - The Provincial Political Horserace

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Eye on AlbertaThe Provincial Political Horserace

December 2015

Marc Henry, President ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. [email protected] 587.774.2395

CONFIDENTIAL: December 2015 Eye on Alberta Copyright © 2015 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

Research Methodology

• Study fielded via online research panel o  Field dates: December 1 to 6, 2015 o  Panel source: Voice of Alberta & Vision Critical

• n=1230

• Weighted to reflect gender, age and region of Alberta population according to Stats Canada

• This online survey utilizes a representative but non-random sample, therefore margin of error is not applicable. However, a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval.

• Accuracy of sub-samples of the data decline based on sample sizes


Regional Sample Sizes &�Margins of Error

Total Interviews (Unweighted)

(n)

Total Interviews

(Weighted) (n)

Margin of Error (Associated with a

probability sample of this size)

ALBERTA TOTAL

1230

1230

+/- 2.8

Calgary

419

412

+/- 4.8

Edmonton

349

375

+/- 5.3

North

132

159

+/- 8.5

Central

165

149

+/- 7.6

South

165

135

+/- 7.6


Alberta’s Political Landscape

December 2015



Provincial Political Landscape�-Bruising Fall Session Coming to a Close-

•  New NDP Government having a rough ride in first full legislative session

o  Big Spending, Big Deficit Budget o  Climate Change Plan o  Farm Workers Protection o  Royalty Review Report yet to come…

•  NDP support fallen sharply since the end of summer o  Now trail Wildrose in province-wide popular vote,

down 9 points since September o  Wildrose and PC support shows modest gains in

past 3 months

•  NDP still dominate Edmonton and region, though support significantly eroded

•  Wildrose hold significant edge in small urban and rural regions of the province

•  Calgary is a statistical 3-way tie: Wildrose, NDP and PC support all within margin of error of one another


33%

29%

25%

8%

3%

2%

Provincial Political Horserace�-Decided Vote-

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

% Decided Voters (n=1059)

Initial Undecided 18%

Some other party


Provincial Political Horserace�-THQ Tracking-

% Decided Vote

10%

14% 16% 16%

13% 15%

14% 14% 15% 15%

17%

13% 13% 14%

19%

26%

39% 41%

38%

32%

29%

34% 33%

35%

38% 39%

41%

38% 39%

38%

46%

41% 41% 40%

30%

20%

31%

27%

24%

30% 32%

33%

44%

36%

31%

26% 26% 26% 27%

28% 30%

19%

24% 26%

31%

36%

40%

25%

20%

28%

21% 23%

25%

10% 11%

12% 13%

14% 14% 14% 12%

14% 16%

14% 14% 12%

14% 14% 12%

9%

4% 5%

8% 8%

1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

4% 3%

4% 3% 3%

4% 3%

4% 5% 5%

4% 2%

5% 4%

3% 1%

3% 4% 4%

5%

2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%

2% 2%

NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other


37%

24%

21%

13%

1%

4%

Low High

31.5% 42.5%

18.5% 29.5%

15.5% 26.5%

7.5% 18.5%

- 6.5%

- 9.5%



Some other party


EDMONTON (CMA)

MARGIN OF ERROR (+/- 5.5%)



Provincial Political Horserace�-Edmonton (CMA) Tracking-

% Decided Vote

18%

23% 24% 22%

17%

22% 21%

26%

19%

23%

27%

22% 23% 21%

32%

38%

56%

59%

52%

47%

37%

22%

19%

24%

30%

33%

29%

32% 31% 29%

35%

32%

35%

32%

22%

14%

23%

17%

12%

19%

23% 24%

43%

39%

28% 26% 27%

24% 22%

25% 25%

16%

20%

23%

26%

32% 34%

22%

17%

22%

16% 18%

21%

14% 15%

19%

16% 18% 19% 18%

14%

20% 21%

17% 15% 14%

18%

14% 12%

8%

5% 7%

9%

13%

2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4%

6% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5%

3% 2% 1%

5%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 4%



30%

29%

26%

9%

5%

1%

Low High

24.8% 35.2%

23.8% 34.2%

20.8% 31.2%

3.8% 14.2%

- 10.2%

- 6.2%



Some other party


CALGARY (CMA)

MARGIN OF ERROR (+/- 5.2%)



Provincial Political Horserace�-Calgary (CMA) Tracking-

% Decided Vote

5%

14% 15%

14% 12% 12% 12%

10%

13%

10% 11%

8% 8% 10%

12%

18%

31% 33%

36%

30% 29%

37%

32%

35%

38%

43%

40%

37% 39%

38%

49%

44%

40% 40%

29%

20%

32%

28%

24%

29% 29% 30%

45%

33%

28% 26%

22%

28% 29%

30% 30%

20%

27% 27%

34%

38%

44%

27%

23%

31%

24% 26% 26%

11% 11% 12%

14% 15%

13% 15%

14% 15% 15%

13%

19%

12%

15% 14% 14%

11%

7%

4%

9% 9%

1%

4% 3%

4% 4% 5%

4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

4% 4% 6%

8% 7%

6% 4%

6% 5% 5%

0%

6% 6%

3% 3% 2% 2%

4% 2%

3% 2%

1% 2% 2%

3% 2%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1%



29% 30%

43%

22% 23%

33%

29%

20%

37%

51%

25% 25%

17%

30%

22%

8% 10%

15%

6%

1% 3%

5%

1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 3%

1%

AB Total Calgary (City) Edmonton (City) Small Urban Rural


Provincial Political Horserace�-By Region-



DECIDED VOTE (Leaners Included)


Provincial Political Horserace�-Edmonton (City) Tracking-

% Decided Vote

21%

26% 27% 26%

20%

25% 24%

29%

20%

26%

30%

25% 25% 23%

33%

42%

59%

64%

55% 54%

43%

18% 17%

21%

27%

31%

24%

29% 28% 27%

32% 29%

32%

27%

19%

12%

21%

12%

8%

16% 19% 20%

41%

36%

25% 24% 22% 22%

20% 22%

24%

15% 17%

21%

26%

31% 32%

22%

18% 21%

14% 13%

17% 16% 18%

21% 18%

22% 23% 21%

17%

22% 23%

19%

15% 16%

20%

15% 13%

8% 5%

8% 9%

15%

2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5%

3%

7% 4% 4%

7% 5% 5%

7%

2% 2% 1%

6%

2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 3%

1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%

3% 4%



Provincial Political Horserace�-Calgary (City) Tracking-

% Decided Vote

5%

13%

16% 14%

12% 12% 12% 11%

13%

10% 12%

8% 8% 10%

12%

19%

31%

34%

37%

31% 30%

36%

31%

34% 36%

41% 39%

35% 37%

36%

48%

42%

39% 38%

28%

19%

31%

25% 23%

27% 28%

29%

46%

33%

28% 27%

23%

29% 30%

31% 31%

20%

27% 28%

36% 38%

43%

27%

24%

31%

24% 25% 25%

12% 11%

12%

15% 16%

13%

16% 14%

15% 16%

14%

19%

13%

16% 14% 14%

12%

7%

4%

9% 10%

1%

4% 3%

4% 5% 5% 5%

4% 3% 3% 3%

5% 4%

6% 8%

7% 7%

4% 6% 6%

5%

1%

6% 7%

4% 3%

2% 2% 4%

2% 3%

2% 1%

2% 2% 3%

2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%



Provincial Political Horserace�-Small Urban Tracking-

% Decided Vote *self reported

7%

10% 10%

13%

10%

14%

10% 12%

15% 14% 14%

11% 13% 14%

18%

23%

37%

33% 31%

24% 22%

35%

32%

42%

38% 38%

45%

41% 39%

35%

46%

39%

43%

47%

33%

21%

32% 33%

30%

37%

40%

37%

46%

42%

34%

27%

31%

24%

31% 30%

39%

23%

30% 29% 29%

39%

44%

27%

20%

31%

21%

26%

30%

8%

11%

8% 10% 11% 12% 11% 12%

9%

14% 13% 14%

8% 9%

14%

10%

6%

2%

6% 7% 6%

1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

5%

2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%

6%

3% 2%

5% 3% 2%

4% 3% 3%

10% 8%

2% 4% 3%

0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

3%



6% 5% 8% 8%

6% 5% 8%

4%

9% 11% 11% 10%

5%

9%

16%

20%

29% 29% 27%

19%

23%

61% 62%

48%

61%

55%

61%

56%

61%

65% 66% 64%

60%

55%

44%

32%

46%

40%

45% 46% 43%

51%

29% 27%

37%

24% 26% 27%

25%

29%

19%

14%

18%

25%

31% 30%

39%

21% 18%

23% 21%

27%

22%

3% 2% 4% 5%

7% 6% 5% 5% 4%

8% 6%

3%

8%

12%

8% 7% 10%

1% 1% 4%

1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%

5%

0% 3%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4%

2% 1% 4%

6%

2% 0%

2% 1% 1% 4%

0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%


Provincial Political Horserace�-Rural Tracking-

% Decided Vote *self reported


For more informaKon, contact: Marc Henry, President ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. [email protected]

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Eye on Alberta - The Provincial Political Horserace