Extreme Weather Events – Climate Change Implications and Disaster Risk Management

Dr. Anil K. GuptaAssociate professor,

National Institute of Disaster Management(Government of India, Ministry of Home Affairs)

New Delhi

Catastrophe events (1970-2001)

All natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2005, number of events

Reported catastrophe losses in India, 1965-2001

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Reported Catastrophe Losses in India, 1965-2001(Nominal US$ million at then applying exchange rates)

Disasters in India

Hazard Vulnerability in India

60%

8%

12%16%

..15%

Legend

INDIASTATE

Drought

Not affected

Moderately affected

Severely affected

More than 20% of the total geographical area of India is

prone to landslides.

68% of the net area sown in the country

is prone to drought

Long coastline of 8000 kms40 million hectres are prone to flood

Major Natural Disasters : 1990 - 2006

Earthquake, GujaratJanuary 26, 2001

EarthquakesUttarkashi 1991Latur (Killari) 1993Jabalpur 1997Chamoli 1999Kutchchh, Gujarat 2001J&K 2005

CyclonesEast & West Godavari 1992& dist.of Andhra Pradesh 1996Kutchchh, Gujarat 1998Orissa 1999

FloodsPunjab 1993Kerala 1994Punjab & Haryana 1996Mumbai 2005Bihar 2008

TsunamiAndaman & Nicobar Islands & coastal areas 2004

TsunamiDec.26, 2004

Earthquake, J&KOct.8, 2005

11

Increased Mortality and Homelessness

Year Disaster Events Deaths Houses Destroyed / damaged

1993 Latur Earthquake 8,000 200,000

1999 Orissa Super Cyclone

10,000 275,000

2001 Bhuj Earthquake 13,800 1,000,000

2004 South India Tsunami

16,500 150,000

2005 Jammu & Kashmir Earthquake

1,300 41,000

2008 Kosi Floods, Bihar 300 375,000

2009 Cyclone, AILA 120 so far

Affected 5.4 million people in 18 districts

Increasing number of natural disasters over the past five and half decades (Data from UN/ISDR – “Disaster Statistics” http://www.unisdr.org/disaster-statistics/occourence-trends-century.htm)

Global analysis of records reveal that nearly 90 % of loss of life due to natural disasters were caused by weather- climate and water-related hazards

CLIMATE-CHANGE AND DISASTER RISKS

Geo-physical Climatic Disaster

•Ocean temperature•Sea level•Snow cover•Mountain glaciers•Arctic sea-ice extent•Permafrost extent•GLOFS

•Wind patterns•Air temperature•Precipitation patterns

•Rainy days•Rainfall•Spatial distribution

•Evaporation•Transpiration

•Floods •Heat waves•Tropical cyclones•Cold days and nights•Hot days and nights•Hot extremes•Droughts•Desertification

Environment, climate and disasters

DISASTERS IDENTIFIED BY High Powered Committee (HPC)

1. Floods 2. Cyclones3. Tornadoes4. Hailstorm5. Cloud Burst6. Heat Wave and Cold Wave7. Snow Avalanches8. Droughts9. Sea Erosion10. Thunder and Lightning11. Tsunami (Added)

I. WATER AND CLIMATE RELATED DISASTERS

1. Landslides and Mudflows2. Earthquakes3. Dam Failures/ Dam Bursts4. Mine Fires

II. GEOLOGICALLY RELATED DISASTERS

III. CHEMICAL, INDUSTRIAL AND NUCLEAR

1. Chemical and Industrial Disasters 2. Nuclear Disasters

IV. ACCIDENT RELATED DISASTERS

1. Forest Fires2. Urban Fires3. Mine Flooding4. Oil Spill5. Major Building Collapse6. Serial Bomb Blasts7. Festival related disasters8. Electrical Disasters and Fires9. Air, Road and Rail Accidents10. Boat Capsizing11. Village Fire

1. Biological Disasters and Epidemics2. Pest Attacks3. Cattle Epidemics4. Food Poisoning

V. BIOLOGICALLY RELATED DISASTERS

Disaster - types: Naturally-classified…

Environmental (natural or man-made) Geo-hydrological Biological Chemical Fires (env.) Epidemics….

Technological & civil / sectorial Rail, Industrial (Electrical, Mechanical, chemical..),

Nuclear, Aviation, Road… Security threats

Terrorism, sabotage, bomb blast… War Festival related – Stempede etc.

Originating in environment

ALARP As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALRAP)

1.0E-09

1.0E-07

1.0E-05

1.0E-03

1.0E-01

Ind

ivid

ual

ris

k (

IR)

Unacceptable region

The ALARP

Negligible risk

Broadly acceptable region

The lower the risk less proportionately, it is necessary to spend to reduce it. This concept of diminishing proportion is shown by the triangle

DRR ZONE

BATNEEC

Disaster Risk Management

COMMAND

Prevention

Vulnerability Reduction

Hazard / RiskReduction

RISK MANAGEMENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Operation centric

Emergency Risk

Assessment

Mitigation

Monitoring

Evaluation

ENVIRONMENTcommunity

Planning

Response

Relief

Rehabilitation

Reconstruction

PreparednessPlanning

Governance

Disaster Management Vehicle

Management centric

FUNCTIONS-…. DISASTER REDUCTION

SITE RISK ASSESSMENT

HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS

MULT-HAZARD IMPACT ANALYSIS

MCAS & CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT

EMERGENCY PLANNING

RESPONSE DRILL

EMERGENCY RESPONSE & EVALUATION

DISASTER MANAGEMENT

STRATEGY

PREPAREDNESS

RISK INTEG RATION INTO

DEVELOPMENT

LAND-USE & ENVIRONMENTAL

SETTING

HAZARD MITIGATION

IMPACTS OF DISASTERS

Physical (buildings, structures, physical property, industry, roads, bridges, etc.)

Environmental (water, land/soil, land-use, landscape, crops, lake/rivers / estuaries, aquaculture, forests, animals/livestock, wildlife, atmosphere, energy, etc.)

Social (life, health, employment, relations, security, peace, etc.) Economic (assets, deposits, reserves, income, commerce, production,

guarantee/insurance, etc.)

Physical Environmental

Disaster Event

SOCIAL

Economic

DM Paradigm Shift

Response Centric Relief Centric

Mitigation centric Preparedness centric Disaster Centric

Hazard CentricVulnerability CentricEnvironment Centric

Adaptation

PREVENTIVE DISASTER MANAGEMENT

A. Hazard – Vulnerability Disaster Relief

B. Hazard - Mitigation Disaster Relief

A: Business as Usual; B; Preferred Approach

Concept of Disaster Risk Reduction

Risk Reduction: Event minimization Loss minimization

Quick recovery (Resilience)

Approach: Visualizing hazards Reducing vulnerability Increasing coping capacities

DRR Strategy Design – Components

What is the riskhazard - event x damageability

What is at risk – Life, Structures, Resources, Infrastructure

Resist Resilience

Avoid Tolerate Manage

Programmes Direct Indirect Infused

HRVC Analysis

Hazard identification Establish relative priorities for your hazards. Hazard Mapping

Critical Facility Analysis Identify critical facilities categories Complete a critical facilities inventory Identify intersections of critical facilities with high-

risk areas Vulnerability Analysis

Societal Infrastructure Environmental Economic

Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation Strategies

‘adaptation’ to climate-change and its implications towards disaster management, aims at developing a set of abilities to sustain in the given complex scenario of influences along human environment.

Reducing the risk of occurrence of a hazard event(i) prevention (ii) mitigation or(iii) control

Reducing exposure to hazardous event

(i) avoidance/migration(ii) resilience

Capacity to contain(i) prevent damages (ii) prevent losses (iii) early normalcy

Sensitivity-adaptation framework to climate-changeTHE COMPONENTS OF ADAPTATION

Potential hazards, DRR-Adaptation and mainstreaming options

Adaptation Environmental conditions for disaster risks Risk Reduction (pro-active) Disaster Response

Development Goals

Desertification Drought Floods Cyclones Landslides Earthquakes -

effects Hazards: Fire (Forests/ Mine/ Residues) Biological Diseases/

epidemic/ pandemic

Soil-water management erosion wasteland reclaimation Slope protection & remediation Afforestation Crop diversification Alternative crops & cropping

patterns Forestry-produce Wetlands Fisheries/aquaculture Housing designs Land-use Alternative employment Fiscal measures

Emergency response. Medical, Response, Relief/ Rehabilitation

Agriculture production and sustainability

Natural Resources renewal and management

Water resource / supply Health & nutrition Poverty eradication and

employment Housing Urban development Transport/Roads Service sectors Industrial development Economic/ equity

Adaptation Environmental conditions for disaster risks Risk Reduction (pro-active) Disaster Response

Development Goals

Desertification Drought Floods Cyclones Landslides Earthquakes -

effects Hazards: Fire (Forests/ Mine/ Residues) Biological Diseases/

epidemic/ pandemic

Soil-water management erosion wasteland reclaimation Slope protection & remediation Afforestation Crop diversification Alternative crops & cropping

patterns Forestry-produce Wetlands Fisheries/aquaculture Housing designs Land-use Alternative employment Fiscal measures

Emergency response. Medical, Response, Relief/ Rehabilitation

Agriculture production and sustainability

Natural Resources renewal and management

Water resource / supply Health & nutrition Poverty eradication and

employment Housing Urban development Transport/Roads Service sectors Industrial development Economic/ equity

View point: outside a political manual or drought declaration

DROUGHT SEQUENCE

Meteorological Hydrological

Environmental

HabitationAgricultureEcosystems

Socio-economic Drought

The Disaster Management Act 2005

The Disaster Management Act was enacted on 23rd December,2005. The Act provides for establishment of - NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority) SDMA (State Disaster Management Authority) DDMA (District Disaster Management Authority)

Act provides for constitution of Disaster Response Fund and Disaster Mitigation Fund at National, State and District level.

Establishment of NIDM and NDRF.

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Ministry of Agriculture set up National Centre for Disaster Management at IIPA in 1995

NCDM scaled up to NIDM in October 2003 (as part of Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India)

NIDM is a Statutory Body (Chapter 7 - DM Act, 2005)

4 Academic divisions and 4 multi-disciplinary research cells

STATUTORY MANDATES Develop Training Modules, Undertake research &

documentation, Organize training programmes; Formulate and implement a comprehensive Human

Resource Development Plan covering all aspects of disaster management; for all the sectors,

Provide inputs in National Level Policy formulation;

Guidance to training and research Institutesfor development of training & research programmes

MANDATES……. Training of faculty members of Disaster

Management /State training institutes Develop educational materials for disaster

management including academic & professional courses;

Promote awareness among stakeholders including college or school teachers; technical personnel & others associated with multi-hazard mitigation, preparedness and response

Promotion of disaster management education at higher/university, college, school level

KEY ACTIVITIESin the context of Networking

Joining Efforts with support of ATIs Sharing Experience through Conference,

Workshops, Policy dialogues Documenting events, e.g. Orissa Cyclone,

Gujarat EQ, Kumbakonam Fire, Meerut Fire, Barmer Flood, Mumbai Floods etc

Editing Contents through knowledge Institutions (IDKN Model)

E-Learning e.g. VLE, Moodle Platform WBI Courses

E-Shishak will be launched soon.

ACHIEVEMENTS >400 training programmes & trained (both trainers & line

stakeholders) South Asia Policy Dialogue in August 2006 First India Disaster Management Congress in Nov. 2006 International Workshop “Risk to Resilience –Strategic Tools

for DRR” Central Sector Scheme; 30 “Disaster Management Centres”

in different States in India Incident Command System and MEPP Trainings including

NDRF, Civil Defense, Paramilitary, etc. Partnership with >50 international and national

institutions/agencies On-line Training Programmes with World Bank Institute,

Washington. National Programmes for Capacity Building of Engineers and

Architects Second India Disaster Management Congress in Nov. 4-

6. 2009 )(800 delegates including 100 international)

Related Policies Disaster Management Policy (Draft) Environmental Policy

Planning Commission Working Plan 2009-12 Environment & Forests

Land-use Policies Agriculture Policy Water Policy Voluntary Sector Policy WRD & Hydro-Power policy Rural Development (land resources) Housing Policy Forest Policy Statement of Climate Change Right to Information Map Policy

Programmes (examples) Disaster Risk Management Programme National Emergency Communication Plan Disaster Management Decision Support Programme Natural Resources Data Management System NRDMS Environmental Information System APELL JNURM Integrated Coastal Zone Management National River Conservation National Wetland Programme National Wasteland Programme Rural employment Mid-day meal scheme Microfinance

Strategic ToolsTools that help and/or implement policies

Project Appraisal Process Policy Appraisal – SEA (of policy, plan,

programmes) EIA / REIA – DMP & EPP? DRA as part of Project Appraisal process Carrying capacity based planning Risk based developmental planning Cost-Benefit Analysis Economic cost of impacts Risk Auditing Integration of Strategic Tools

Integrated Environmental Management as Sustainable Solution to Disaster Risk Challenges

CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL

RESOURCES (Land/soil, Water, Air, Vegetation, Animals,

Energy, Minerals, Chemicals, Industry)

CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENTAL

PROCESSES (Geo-morphological,

hydrological, chemistry, atmospheric,

biological…..)

Environmental Management Intervention

(SYSTEMS, INFORMATION, TECHNOLOGY, PROGRAMMES)

Natu

ral

/ M

an-m

ade

Poverty & inequality

Prosperity and growth

Hazards/aggravation

Stability/resilience

Vulnerability

Coping capacity

Socio-economic conflicts

Socio-economic development

NO

YES

Disaster Risk Challenges

Sustainability and Safety

( - )

( + )

DISASTERS

Damages Emergencies

RISK REDUCTION

Disaster Mitigation

Quality of Life

Losses

Decision- Wisdom of Choice?

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