Extreme weather: envisioning Ontario agriculture

ScottMitchell1,AnnaZaytseva1,DanMacDonald2,andRuthWaldick1,2

27Feb2017

(1)(2)

What’s this project about?

• createanddeliverinformationaboutcurrentandfutureclimateextremes*thatwillaffectOntario’sagriculturesectorandruralcommunities• *whatdoWEmeanbyextreme?

• developadecisionsupporttooltocharacterizeriskandvulnerabilitiesassociatedwithclimatechangeandextremesinagriculture,allowinguserstoplanforandmitigaterisksbyevaluatingdifferentadaptationchoices

• spatialscenariodevelopment–impactsoncropsandlivestock*• map-based,field-levelmapping;expectations• datarealities:weatherstations(time),GCMresolution• howtotranslatewhattheweatherdataandclimatemodelstellusintopossibleimpactstocropsandlivestock

• useofseasonal,phenology-linkedindiceswithlinkstospecificcropsandoperations

(some) Issues with existing information

• thereareproblemsusinglimitedweatherdata,orclimatemodelprojections,tocharacterizeextremeweather• howextremesusuallyconsidered?(climatemodelvariability)• spatial-temporalresolutionofmodels≠farm-scale/locallevelplanning

• many“challenges”makingsenseofexistingdata,dealingwithgaps,figuringoutwhichdatasetsarerelevanttowhatlocations

• afterthedata(andclimatemodelpredictions)are“cleanedup”andassignedtodifferentpartsofastudyregion,howdowemakesenseofthem,andmakethemrelevanttoagriculture?

• DISSEMINATE

Why focus on scenarios & phenological impacts?

• everyclimatechangemodelrunisascenario,notaprediction

• thosemodelslackspatialandtemporaldetail,butthereisdemandforinformationrelevanttolocallyevaluatinglevelsofriskandpotentialtradeoffs

• cropmodellingtypicallyfocusesonyield,

• usuallyworkbestatverylocallevels,havehighdataneeds,assumeconditionsnotchanging

• focusingonphenologicalimpactallowsustoidentifytimeswhencropsareparticularlyvulnerabletoclimatologicalevents,andassignatypicalimpacttocropyield;concentrateonrelativeimpactsratherthanspecificphysiologicalprocesses

Study area: eastern Ontario

A.Zaytseva’sM.Sc.Thesis(CarletonUniversity).

Indices derived from “just” weather data

• E.Ontarionotexpectedtobeahotspotofweatherextremes• buttypesofextremesofparticularrelevancein“regular”agriculturaloperationsarenotnecessarilywhatpeoplefirstthinkofas“extreme”

• “standard”indicesareavailabletoanalyseandcompareweather/extremes• usefultodescribegeneraltrends

• some,however,maskprocessesthatareimportanttoagriculture

Why extremes? This is NOT the whole story!

A.Zaytseva’sM.Sc.Thesis(CarletonUniversity).

http://carleton.ca/envisionontarioag/

Why are we here?

• Expandoninvitation,motivation• Introductions