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Explaining the Evidence. Activity 2: Clearing the Air. How Many of You Have Heard That…. Climate change is due to human activities. or… Climate change is due to human and natural causes. Nearly all climate scientists agree on causes of climate change. or… - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Explaining the Evidence
Activity 2: Clearing the Air
• Climate change is due to human activities.
or…
Climate change is due to human and natural causes.
• Nearly all climate scientists agree on causes of climate change.
or…
Most scientists do not agree on causes of climate change.
How Many of You Have Heard That…
• People have beliefs about many things.– Ideas that we think are true– Based on a number of sources such as past experiences,
faith, or what someone said– Can change as people learn and have new experiences
• Assumptions are underlying ideas behind beliefs.– Connect evidence to conclusions– May or may not be based on fact– Important to distinguish assumptions from beliefs
Beliefs and Assumptions
Belief: Carbon dioxide occurs naturally in small amounts, but is very efficient at absorbing heat energy. Assumption: On a planetary scale, a little increase in CO2 emissions makes a huge difference. Therefore, it is logical to believe…
Belief: Humans are causing climate change.
Sample Beliefs and Assumptions about Climate
ChangeBelief: Carbon dioxide is one of many atmospheric gases, and it makes up a small percent of the total gases in our atmosphere. Assumption: On a planetary scale, a little increase in CO2 emissions won’t matter.Therefore, it is logical to believe…
Belief: Humans are not causing climate change.
• Science is a way of knowing about the natural and material world.–Hypothesis–Data–Evidence–Conclusions
Science
• Weather describes the atmospheric conditions at a specific place at a specific point in time.
• Climate is determined by long term trends in weather.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vj-0imOLw
Weather vs. Climate
• Will not be the same everywhere– Some places will be wetter, others will be drier– Polar regions will see greater increases in temperature than
tropical regions
• Includes changes in– Earth’s average temperature– Patterns and amounts of precipitation– Ice and snow cover– Sea level– Extreme weather events
Evidence of Climate Change
1. Temperature (1880-2010)
1. Temperature (1000-2000)
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years
Observed Precipitation Changes: 1901-2007
2. Precipitation
3. Sea Ice
4. Sea Level
5. Catastrophes, Including Extreme Weather Events
Historical Climate Change• Solar radiation• Ocean composition• Greenhouse effect• Albedo effect• Continental land arrangement• Volcanic eruptions
Recent Climate Change• Solar radiation• Ocean composition• Greenhouse effect• Albedo effect• Continental land arrangement• Volcanic eruptions• Fossil fuel combustion• Land-use change from human
activities
Climate is Affected by Several Factors
Solar Radiation
Radiative Forcing
In the Southeast U.S., land use changes from bare soil in cotton and other row crops to forests (currently 70 percent of the region) may have contributed to the
negative trend in temperature over the past 100 years.
Land-Use Change
Greenhouse GasPre-1750
Tropospheric Concentration
Recent Tropospheric
Concentration
Change in Tropospheric
Concentration
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 280 ppm 393 ppm 40%
Methane (CH4) 700 ppb 1874 ppb 168%
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
270 ppb 324 ppb 20%
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
0 21-529 ppb(different for each CFC)
NA
Ozone (O3) 25 ppb 34 ppb 36%
We Have Also Altered the Atmosphere
ppm = parts per millionppb = parts per billion
Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases
a
Focus on CO2
800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration
Carbon is Everywhere
Natural forces alone do not explain the changes in temperature.
Global and Continental Temperature Change
• 97% of climate scientists combine this and other evidence to draw these conclusions: – Earth’s climate is currently changing due to global
warming.– Changes are not the same at all locations on Earth. – Future changes may be more rapid than historical
changes.– Human activities are responsible for most of the climate
change being observed.
What Does All This Mean?
Agreement Among Climate Scientists
What Will Happen in the Future?
Current Modeled ForestFuture Model – Low EmissionsFuture Model – High Emissions
Forest Habitat Changing
LegendWhite/Red/Jack PineSpruce/FireLongleaf/Slash PineLoblolly/Shortleaf PineOak/PineOak/HickoryOak/Gum/CypressElm/Ash/CottonwoodMaple/Beech/BirchAspen/BirchNo Data
A Movable Carbon Map
www.carbonmap.org
• Southeast’s climate is largely influenced by El Niño and La Niña
• Sea level rise – Coastal erosion
• Warmer temperatures – More invasive exotic organisms– Greater risk of wildfire
• Increased yield in some crops if water is plentiful• Less rain in the growing season in some places– Harm to crops, or changes in planting times
What Could Happen in the Southeast?
• A very complex system• Regional variation• Changes are hard to see• No firm predictions; models have limitations • Not just about the science
- Political, Economic
It’s a Challenge
The U.S. Public Has Many Beliefs about Climate Change
• People see and remember information that matches what they know– So it is hard to change someone’s mind
• People have partial information and leap to conclusions– And then when presented with complete information, it
doesn’t match
• People listen to influential leaders – Rather than figuring it out for themselves
But Why disagreement?
• Lots of options; no single solution– Adaptation– Mitigation
• Policies and actions implemented by – Governments: international, national, state,
local– Industry and business– Individuals – all of us!
Solutions to Climate Change