Explaining Korean Problem- Division and Engagement -

May 2, 2007HCU Peace Studies

Sung Chull KimHiroshima Peace Institutesckim@peace.hiroshima-cu.ac.jp

Preliminary questions Why was Korea divided? What is the impact of

division of Korea?

Why does South Korea try to engage with North Korea?

What does the two Koreas mean to Northeast Asia, particularly Japan?

The Korean peninsula

Flags of ROK and DPRK

Two Koreas in Northeast Asia: Facts

CountrySpace

(1,000 km2)Population

(Million) CapitalGDP

(Million US dollars)

GDP/capita(US dollars)

Japan 378 130.0 Tokyo 4,326,400 34,010

China 9,597 1,300.0 Beijing 1,130,984 890

North Korea 121 22.6 Pyongyang 22,260* 1,000*

South Korea 99 47.4 Seoul 447,698 9,400

Division and its impact (sum) “Division of Korea” “Korean peninsula as the last remaining Cold War zone”

Division of Korea and Korean War - division by international agreement (Germany, Korea, and Vietnam) - experience of war (Korea and Vietnam)

Divergent development path and competition in the Cold War era - North: socialist and autarchic economy, father-son monolithic power - South: export-oriented market economy, dependence on US,

democratization

WMD development by North Korea in the Post-Cold War era - end of regime competition between two Koreas - two nuclear crises (1993-1994 and 2002-present) and the nuclear

test (Oct. 2006)

Koreans celebrating the liberation (1945)

Division of Korea (documentary) For the comments, see separate sheet.

State Building in the North Soviet influence for the early establishment of leadership - Selection of the leader: Kim Il Sung - Why Kim? (1) no experience of engagement in the

factional division in communist movement in Korea in 1920s and 1930s; (2) Soviet’s familiarity with Kim who served in the Far Eastern Russia army

- Soviet helped Kim by blocking of entry of armed forces from foreign territory, especially from China

In addition to Soviet influence, there were other factors for the rapid formation of state, centered around Kim Il Sung

- existence of segments of communists in Korea during the Japanese colonial rule

- ideological similarity among the factions after arrest of nationalists

North Korean leader, Kim Il Sung (1945)

State Building in the South Strong US influence and support for Rhee Syngman, but

relatively confrontational process in the state formation - Despite no allowance of political organizations by the

Military Government led by US forces, there were severe confrontations among political factions of different ideological orientations.

- The factions included communists, nationalists, Shanghai interim government leaders, and social democrats.

- With the oppression made by the Military Government, the communist escaped to the North, and interim government faction and social democrats were driven out from the political scene.

- In the end, Rhee Syngman prevailed in politics.

South Korean leader, Rhee Syngman (1948)

Origins of Korean War (1950-53) Theories on the origin of the war - Kim Il Sung’s initiative - Stalin’s rollback strategy - internal war between two conflicting communities (North and South

Koreas)

The Korean War, mixture of domestic and international factors. - Rhee Syngman's “unification through marching to the North” vs. Kim

Il Sung’s “complete domination based on democratic base in the North”

- Severe military conflicts around the 38th parallel since June 1949. - It was not all-out struggle, but the war started a year ago. - international support by the Soviet union and China, on the one hand,

and the United States, on the other hand.

Consequences of the Korean War Total death toll reached around 2,500,000 - 1,316,579 North Korean soldiers and civilians - 595,000 South Korean soldiers and civilians - 36,940 US soldiers - 500,000 Chinese soldiers

The human disaster of the Korean War outnumbered that of the Vietnam War (death toll 1,900,000).

Unlike the nominal goal of “unification,” presented by the two Koreas, the Korean War contributed to the consolidation of the division.

- increase in armed forces: 600,000 in the South vs. 1,100,000 in the North

- emergence of dictatorship: Rhee and Park in the South vs. Kim and his son, Kim Jong-il, in the North

- divergent path of development: South’s reliance on the United States vs. North’s self-reliance

Korean War (1950-53)

Park Chung-hee after military coup (1961)

Inter-Korean relations: from confrontation to engagement Confrontation, 1950s-1960s - anti-communism vs. military adventurism

Competition, 1970s-1980s - July 4th Joint Declaration - regime competition accompanied by several conflicts

Gradual engagement, 1990s-present - Basic Agreement in 1991 - 1st nuclear crisis in 1993-4 - Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Policy for engagement with the

North - 2nd nuclear crisis since 2002

Inter-Korean relations: confrontation in 1950s-1960s

South Korea The military regime, led by ex-general Park Chung-hee, took an

intense anti-communism policy for obtaining legitimacy from the United States.

- Law for Anti-Communism passed in 1961 - The law prohibits not only association with communists but also aids

to them. This is a kind of special law of the existing National Security Law that defines general anti-national activities.

North Korea In the process of the consolidation of Kim’s power and the

implementation of self-reliance policy, the status of military rose, and in turn, this resulted in an adventurism provoking to the South.

- North Korean armed spy (special forces) infiltrations in 1968 targeting Blue House, South Korean presidential house.

Pueblo Incident (1968)

Inter-Korean confrontation heightened by the abduction of US spy ship, Pueblo, in January 1968

- The crew members were detained in North Korea for 11 months and returned in December 1968.

Inter-Korean relations: competition in 1970s-1980s regime competition instead of confrontation, because of changes in

international environment and domestic needs - July 4th Joint Declaration for inter-Korean reconciliation

Background (1): international environment changes - changes in security environment in East Asia, particularly because of

rapprochement of US-China and Japan-China relations - Feb. 1972, president Nixon visited China, Shanghai Joint Communiqué - Sept. 1972, Prime Minister Tanaka visited China, Tanaka-Cho Enlai Joint

Declaration

Background (2): domestic power consolidation and stability - in North Korea, preparation for father-to-son power transfer - “Kimilsungism” by Kim Jong-il in 1974 - in South Korea, Park’s ambition of prolonging his power - Yushin (literally meaning renovation) in October 1972

July 4th Joint Declaration in 1972 The declaration was the culmination of inter-Korean reconciliatory

gestures in this phase of regime competition.

Main points1. principle of unification: independence, peace, grand national

integration2. end of denunciation and military provocation, and attempts for

prevention of military conflict3. multi-dimensional exchanges between two Koreas4. facilitating of Red Cross meetings5. establishment of hot line between Pyongyang and Seoul6. operation of North-South Coordination Committee7. swear for the full implementation of the agreements in front of all

nation people

Inter-Korean regime competition accompanied by severe conflicts

Gradual engagement, 1990-present Two Koreas joined UN at the same time in Sept. 1991. - The first formal international recognition of two states in Korean

Peninsula. - This was one of the most meaningful events that happened in the

post-Cold War era.

Basic Agreement between two Koreas in Dec. 1991 - This agreement was followed by Joint Declaration of the

Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in Feb. 1992.

1st nuclear crisis in 1993-4 - Despite the two agreements between two Koreas, the disclosure of

North Korea’s nuclear weapon development represented that Korean peninsula was still in the age of Cold War.

- Geneva Agreed Framework, signed by US and North Korea in Oct. 1994, for freezing the nuclear facilities ended the crisis.

Inter-Korean relations, 1989-1992

1994 and 2000

Engagement with the North: Kim and Roh Kim Dae-jung’s “Sunshine Policy” 1998-2003 - “buying peace with economy,” or “investment in the peace” - collusive coalition between government and Hyundai cooperation for the 2000

summit

Roh Moo-hyun’s “Peace and Prosperity Policy” 2003-present - institutionalization of economic exchanges (investment guarantee, double-

taxation exemption, dispute arbitration, payment through South and North Korean banks)

- construction of Kaesong Industrial Complex since 2000 - factories started to produce products since 2004

Nuclear crisis, nuclear test, and international engagement, 2002-present - North Korea’s confession of developing of HEU project to US Assistant

Secretary of the State Department James Kelly in Oct. 2002 - 4th Six-Party Talks adopted Joint Declaration (dismantlement of North Korean

nuclear development, denuclearization of Korean peninsula, economic assistance, U.S.-North Korea normalization)

Trend of inter-Korean trade

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

million US $

Trend of inter-Korean visits

0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

South to NorthNorth to South

Kaesong-Seoul

Kaesong Industrial Complex The first major industrial complex that was

constructed by South Korean companies in North Korean territory

Total 65.7 km2

About 6,400 North Korean workers are employed by Korean factories, as of March 5, 2006.

For the operation of factories, South Korean managing staff commutes the industrial complex by crossing the border (DMZ).

International engagement (Six-Party Talks) for the resolution to the nuclear crisis Sept. 2005 Joint Statement - denuclearization of the Korean peninsula - economic support - “commitment to commitment, action to action”

Oct. 2006 underground nuclear test in North Korea

UN Security Council resolution for the sanction of North Korea

Feb. 2007 Joint Statement: Initial Actions for the Implementation of the Joint Statement

- shut down and seal of nuclear facilities - disablement of the facilities - oil aid up to 1 million tons

Conclusion

The division of Korea and the establishment of two Koreas have become the central source of contradictions in the region, as well as the source of confrontation between two Koreas.- The division resulted in the war (the biggest one after the WWII); The Korean peninsula had been the locus of East-West confrontation in the region. (US, Japan, and South Korea vs. Russia, China, and North Korea)

The Korean peninsula is the last remaining island of the Cold War: See U.S.-North Korea and Japan-North Korea relations.

It is necessary to find a solution to the division by peaceful coexistence between two Koreas. - The peaceful coexistence between two Koreas requires North Korea’s dismantlement of nuclear weapons program and also needs the development of the relationship between the U.S. and North Korea. There are limitations in the South Korea’s economic engagement policy toward North Korea. - The development of the U.S.-North Korea relationship will facilitate the normalized relationship between Japan and North Korea and will contribute to the solution of pending issues, including adduction issue.

There is a vision for regional cooperation through the peaceful Korean peninsula. - in transportation (Trans-Siberian and Trans-Korean linkage to Japan) and energy (oil and gas: Eastern Pipeline).