Upload
vuonglien
View
239
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks ofExperian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.
Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing First quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations
Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics
Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, VIO
Experian Automotive
2©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Today’s presentationPart one
Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar
Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download
Questions? Contact us at [email protected]
What’s on the Road
VIO by model year, segment, age and market share
U.S. light duty vehicles through March 31, 2016
U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through March 31, 2016
Marty Miller
Senior Product Manager, VIO
3©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Q1 2016 Registrations
Market trends
Geographic performance
Manufacturer, make and model share
Loyalty conquest and defection
Session overviewPart two
Brad Smith
Director, Automotive Market Statistics
4©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
U.S. Total Vehicles in Operation = 276.6M
Light Duty
Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans
Cars and GVW Class 1 - 3
Medium & Heavy Duty
Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses,
RVs, Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors
GVW Class 4 - 8
Power Sports
Motorcycles, All-Terrain,
Utility Task, Snowmobiles
5©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Vehicles in
Operation
What’s on the road today?
Light duty vehicles
6©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Vehicles in operation
Q1 2016
259.3 million
(2.5%)
What’s on the road today?VIO Light duty vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Vehicles in operation
Q1 2015
253 million
Net out of operation
11.1 million (4.3%)
Carryover
New vehicle sales
17.4 million
Used vehicle sales
40.6 million
VIO additions/deletions: 28.5 million (11%)(new sales + out of operation)
VIO total changes: 69.1 million (26.6%)(used sales + new sales + out of operation)
7©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
VIO change by model year (in millions)Q1 2015 to Q1 2016
New Sales 17.4M
Out of Operation
11.1M
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
8©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
VIO change by model year (in millions)Q1 2012 to Q1 2016
Out of Operation
50.1M
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
New Sales 64.3M
9©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” is defined as 6 to 12 model year old vehicles, and because of their age, are out of the general OEM manufacturer warranty for any repairs.
These vehicles are within a time period when more part replacement or services are needed (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops which are supplied by aftermarket part manufacturers and retailers.
Defining the Sweet Spot size helps identify the overall market potential, and changes to the Sweet Spot can have implications to those that service it.
“Post Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 13 model years old or older, and identify the models where less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value.
“Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 5 model years old or newer, and identify the incoming models into the Sweet Spot.
Aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined
10©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
VIO by model year (in millions) 86M vehicles within “Sweet Spot”
(MY2005 – 2011)
Pre-SweetSpot
Post-SweetSpot
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
11©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Sweet Spot changingVehicle segment type
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
12©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
VIO Top 20 segments on the road market shareChange from Q1 2016
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
13©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Trend by Select Segment ChangesTrend Hybrid/Electric Vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
14©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Average vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period)Rolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period)
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
15©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Percentage of VIO by manufacturer market shareTrend from Q1 2013 to Q1 2016
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
16©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
VIO VocationHow light duty commercial vehicles are used
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
17©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
VIO Vocation – Top 10 makes and 25 modelsLight duty vehicles as of Q1 2016(excludes passenger car rental / leasing)
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
18©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
VIO Vocation – Top 5 vocations within age groupLight duty vehicles as of Q1 2016
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
2017-2012 2004 & Older2011-2005
Religious Organizations
Plumbing Heating and Air-Conditioning Contractors
Electrical Contractors and Other Wiring Installation Contractors
Landscaping Services
New Single-Family Housing Construction (except For-Sale Builders)
Plumbing Heating and Air-Conditioning Contractors
Electrical Contractors and Other Wiring Installation Contractors
Legislative Bodies
Commercial and Institutional Building Construction
Site Preparation Contractors
Offices of Other Holding Companies
New Car Dealers
Other Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment Rental and Leasing
Commercial and Institutional Building Construction
Legislative Bodies
(excludes passenger car rental / leasing)
19©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Vehicles in
Operation
What’s on the road today?
Medium and heavy duty vehicles
20©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
What’s on the road today? VIO by model yearMedium and heavy duty vehicles
30% of VIOMY2010+
67.1% of VIOMY2001+
83.3% of VIOMY1996+
Vehicles in operation
Q1 2016
6.9
million
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
21©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
VIO by GVW class & engine manufacturer shareMedium and heavy duty vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
22©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Top VIO Market share of Vocation – High levelMedium and heavy duty vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of March 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
23©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
U.S. Market Overview
What products are selling?
Who’s buying?
Where is it happening?
24©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Growth continues: New vehicle registrations are up 7.5% in the first quarter of 2016
New passenger car / light truck registrations through March 2016
3.93.8
3.7
2.3
2.7
3.2
3.5
3.83.9
4.0
4.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
New
Reg
istr
ati
on
Vo
lum
e (
Millio
ns)
25©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
15.9%
31.0%
36.9%
22.8%
10.9%
3.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Commercial/Taxi
Dealer Manufacturer
Government
Other
Rental/Lease
Retail
% Change from Q1 2015
Q1 ‘15 vs. Q1 ‘16
Growth in fleet based sales categories is out pacing retail
Total new vehicle registrations through March 2016
26©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
10 states accounted for nearly 60% of retail registrations in the first quarter of 2016
New vehicle registrations
Individual buyers
Q1 2016
Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q1 2016
27©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
An increasing number of states are experiencing declines in new vehicle registration as compared to Q1 2015
New vehicle registrations
Individual buyers
Q1 2015 vs. Q1 2016
Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q1 2016
28©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
1.53%
1.74%
1.80%
1.90%
2.15%
2.34%
2.35%
2.41%
2.50%
2.68%
2.76%
2.82%
2.84%
7.00%
7.16%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
ORLANDO-DAYTONA BCH-MELBRN
PHOENIX (PRESCOTT)
TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA)
ATLANTA
WASHINGTON, DC (HAGRSTWN)
BOSTON (MANCHESTER)
MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE
SAN FRANCISCO-OAK-SAN JOSE
HOUSTON
PHILADELPHIA
DETROIT
CHICAGO
DALLAS-FT. WORTH
LOS ANGELES
NEW YORK
Market Share by Nielsen DMA®
New York and Los Angeles lead all markets for new vehicle registrations
DMA® is a registered service mark of The Nielsen Company. Used under license.
New vehicle registrations
Individual buyers
Q1 2016
Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q1 2016
29©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
2.15%
2.33%
2.40%
2.45%
2.76%
2.88%
3.31%
5.50%
5.66%
6.44%
8.48%
9.48%
9.86%
11.35%
15.09%
Small Car - Budget
Mid Range Car - Premium
Pickup - Small
Sport Car - Touring
Van - Mini
SUV - Entry Level
Upscale - Near Luxury
CUV - Premium
SUV - Lower Mid Range
CUV - Mid Range
Mid Range Car - Lower
Mid Range Car - Standard
Small Car - Economy
Pickup - Full Sized
CUV - Entry Level
Top 15 Vehicle Segments
Led by Entry CUV, 10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new individual registrations in Q1 2016
Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016
30©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
-25.2%
-11.5%
-11.4%
-11.4%
-10.9%
7.5%
9.8%
10.3%
15.6%
24.7%
Upscale - Luxury
Alt Power - Hybrid Car
Sport Car - Premium
Upscale - Near Luxury
Upscale - Ultra
SUV - Lower Mid Range
Van - Full Sized
SUV - Large
CUV - Entry Level
CUV - Premium
Q1 2016 % Change from Q1 2015
CUVs and SUV led in year over year growth, while luxury, premium and hybrid segments declined from compared to Q1 2015
Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016
Minimum 5,000 registrations
31©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
0.65%
0.71%
1.90%
2.04%
2.40%
3.15%
3.90%
3.95%
4.06%
8.77%
11.27%
11.91%
12.19%
15.63%
16.44%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Tata
Mitsubishi
Mazda
Daimler
BMW
VW
Hyundai
Kia
Subaru
Nissan
Honda
FCA US LLC
Ford
Toyota
GM
Share of Individual Registrations
Top 15 Manufacturers (Q1 2016)
General Motors outsold Toyota by 25k units to lead Q1 2016 market share
Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016
32©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
2.00%
2.07%
2.34%
2.45%
2.66%
3.17%
3.90%
3.95%
4.06%
5.34%
7.90%
10.15%
10.99%
11.54%
12.74%
Mercedes-Benz
BMW
Lexus
Dodge
Ram
GMC
Hyundai
Kia
Subaru
Jeep
Nissan
Honda
Chevrolet
Ford
Toyota
Share of Individual Registrations
Top 15 Makes (Q1 2016)
Toyota outsold Ford by over 38k units to lead Q1 2016 brand market share
Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016
33©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
1.36%
1.48%
1.49%
1.63%
1.68%
1.83%
1.83%
2.17%
2.17%
2.19%
2.26%
2.47%
2.60%
2.74%
2.86%
Chevrolet Malibu
Ford Fusion
Nissan Sentra
Nissan Altima
Nissan Rogue
Ram 1500
Ford Escape
Toyota Camry
Toyota RAV4
Toyota Corolla
Honda CR-V
Honda Accord
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
Honda Civic
Ford F150
Share of New Individual Registrations
Top 15 Models
9 of the top 15 models are produced by Asian based manufacturers
Individual new vehicle registrations through March 2016
©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks ofExperian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.
Loyalty, Conquest & Defection
35©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Consistent view of activity across all buyers
Captures additions to household fleets
Looks for loyalty first and foremost
Census coverage, findings applicable to dealers of all sizes
Most timely loyalty metric available
Requires an owned vehicle to be registered to another owner
► Creates additional lag in reporting
Registration must occur within 90 days of new vehicle purchase
► Some off lease used vehicles missed due to turn time
Does not capture additions to household fleet
Smaller population, finding not applicable to small dealers
Overview of Loyalty Methodologies
Household Disposal
36©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
69.6%
62.4%
29.7%
24.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Lo
yalty R
ate
Household Loyalty Trends
Manufacturer Make Model Lender
Household Loyalty Rates Continue Climbing
Household Methodology
New to New
Through January 2016
37©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
65.6%
58.3%
26.6%
22.0%
62.0%
53.9%
21.0%
14.6%
56.5%
44.6%
14.1%
4.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Manufacturer Make Model Lender
New Certified Used Non-Certified Used
New buyers are the most loyal to their brands, followed buy Certified Used and Non-Certified Used
Household Methodology
February 2015 – January 2016
38©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
53.7%
56.1%
56.3%
58.9%
61.2%
62.2%
63.3%
63.5%
65.4%
67.1%
67.9%
68.5%
69.0%
69.6%
70.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Tata
Porsche
VW
BMW
Hyundai
Nissan
Honda
Kia
Daimler
FCA US LLC
Toyota
Subaru
Tesla
GM
Ford
Manufacturer Loyalty Rate (Household)
Manufacturer Loyalty Rates
Ford led all manufacturers with 70.3% returning households remaining loyal to the manufacturer
Household Methodology
New to New
February 2015 – January 2016
Minimum 1,000 RTM
39©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
56.1%
58.9%
59.0%
59.7%
60.4%
61.2%
61.4%
61.7%
63.4%
63.5%
64.2%
65.6%
68.5%
69.0%
69.4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Porsche
Ram
BMW
Lincoln
Lexus
Hyundai
Honda
Nissan
Chevrolet
Kia
Toyota
Mercedes-Benz
Subaru
Tesla
Ford
Make Loyalty Rate (Household)
Make Loyalty Rates (Top 15)
Ford led all brands with 69.4% of returning owners buying another Ford vehicle
Household Methodology
New to New
February 2015 – January 2016
Minimum 1,000 RTM
40©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
40.2%
40.3%
40.5%
41.2%
41.7%
42.0%
42.0%
42.0%
42.2%
42.7%
43.9%
46.8%
46.8%
48.3%
69.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Hyundai Genesis
Mercedes-Benz S Class
Mercedes-Benz C Class
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
Subaru Forester
Lexus RX350
Subaru Outback
Cadillac SRX
Kia Soul
Cadillac Escalade ESV
Ford F150
Ram 1500
Lincoln MKZ
Land Rover Range Rover
Tesla Model S
Model Loyalty Rates (Household)
Model Loyalty Rates (Top 15)
Tesla Model S leads all models with 69.1% model loyalty rate
Household Methodology
New to New
February 2015 – January 2016
Minimum 2,000 RTM
41©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
When loyalty does not exist a conquest / defection relationship is present
Conquest is assessed against the purchased vehicle / vehicle attribute
Defection is assessed against the owned vehicle / vehicle attribute
Conquest / defection ratio is the number of conquests divided by the number of
defections
Conquest / defection net is the number of conquests less the number of
defections
Conquest / Defection Metrics
42©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
0.58
0.72
0.76
0.78
0.82
0.83
1.05
1.17
1.17
1.27
1.40
1.51
1.55
1.79
1.82
1.90
3.72
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
GM
Mitsubishi
Ford
Toyota
Volvo
Honda
Nissan
Hyundai
FCA US LLC
VW
BMW
Mazda
Daimler
Kia
Tata
Porsche
Subaru
Manufacturer Conquest / Defection Ratio
For every customer lost, Subaru gains nearly four new customers from other brands
Household Methodology
New to New
February 2015 – January 2016
Minimum 5,000 RTM
43©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
0.40
0.61
0.66
0.73
0.78
0.82
0.94
1.03
1.16
1.17
1.27
1.42
1.51
1.57
1.79
1.82
3.72
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
Dodge
Chevrolet
Chrysler
Toyota
Ford
Honda
Volkswagen
Nissan
GMC
Hyundai
Lexus
BMW
Mazda
Mercedes-Benz
Kia
Jeep
Subaru
Make Conquest / Defection Ratio
Small and mid-size brands are gaining owners while the larger, more established brands struggle to maintain their owner base
Household Methodology
New to New
February 2015 – January 2016
Minimum 5,000 RTM
Top brands based on RTM
44©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
0.60
0.62
0.67
0.71
0.73
0.73
0.78
0.90
0.90
0.99
1.06
1.15
1.25
1.34
1.38
1.50
1.78
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00
Ford Focus
Toyota Camry
Honda Odyssey
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Toyota Corolla
Nissan Altima
Ford F150
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
Hyundai Sonata
Toyota Tacoma
Toyota Highlander
Ford Fusion
Chevrolet Equinox
Ford Escape
Honda CR-V
Toyota RAV4
Model Conquest / Defection Ratio
Small and mid-size utility vehicles are gaining owners while trucks and sedan lose
Household Methodology
New to New
February 2015 – January 2016
Minimum 5,000 RTM
Top models based on RTM
©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks ofExperian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.
Luxury Vehicle Market Analysis
46©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
1.19%
2.07%
2.34%
2.00%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mark
et S
ha
re –
New
In
div
idu
al R
eg
istr
ations
Luxury Market Share
Audi BMW Lexus Mercedes-Benz
Import Luxury Market Share
47©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
56.0%
64.9%
62.4%
66.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Make L
oyalty R
ate
Make Loyalty Trend
Audi BMW Lexus Mercedes-Benz
Import Luxury Loyalty
48©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
32,560
25,866
21,851
32,019
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Conquest / Defection Net
2.01
1.42
1.27
1.57
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Conquest / Defection Ratio
Import Luxury Conquest and Defection Metrics
Household Methodology
New to New
February 2015 – January 2016
49©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Light duty vehicles in operation increased to over 259 million units.
The aftermarket Sweet Spot will continue to decline for another year, when an increase will be met with change in vehicle segments.
Ford dominates the commercial light duty vehicle market.
Rental and Leasing is the top vocation in the United States.
Q1 new vehicle registrations are up for the 7th consecutive year and up 7.5% over 2015.
Entry level CUV segment was up 15.6% over 2015 to capture 15.09% of the market.
General Motors outsold Toyota by 25k units to lead Q1 2016 market share among individual buyers.
Ford led all manufacturers with a loyalty rate of 70.3%.
Subaru led all brands and manufacturers with a conquest to defection ratio of 3.72.
Summary of Today’s Presentation
50©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.Experian Public.
Today’s presentation
Follow us on Twitter
#EXPAuto
@Experian_Auto
Connect with us on LinkedIn
Experian Automotive
Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar
Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download
Questions? Contact us at [email protected]