Excellence The Outlook for Hawaii’s Economy and Labor MarketNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council. Agenda Current economic conditions D Contributors to GDP i Labor

UNIVE RSIT ( )E I \\AIi \T M\N( )\

SHDIFR COLLEGE OF BUSINESSInternalional Excellence

The Outlook for Hawaii’sEconomy and Labor Market

Dr. Jack SuyderhoudShidler College of BusinessUniversity of Hawai’i at Mã[email protected]

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

Agenda

Current economic conditions

D Contributors to GDP

i Labor market trends

Forecasts

Features of the Hawaii labor market

Things that concern me

i External

i Internal

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 2

Current EconomicConditions


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rDrivers of Hawaii’s EconomyHawaii Real GDP by Industry: 2013

Real estate and rental and ieaslng

Federal government

State and local government

Professional and business services

Accommodation and food services

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance

Construction

Transportation and warehousing

Whoiesaie trade

Finance and insurance

Utilities

information

Other services, except government

Manufacturing

Educational services

Arts, entertainment, and recreation

Agriculture, forestry. fishing, and hunting

Mining

.1.

1. .7

17

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Real GDP $70.1Bof Total Real GDP

Tourism consists of partial of other industries and contributed 16 855, of rea’ GOP in 2013Source: U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis

hesearch

Fconomic

DBEE.WNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 5

Tourism Dependence Varies byCounty

Relative Importance of Tourism Sector1990 •2007 2014

15

1o

Ii

>Maui Kauai Hawaii Island Oahu State

Source: Author, using HTA and DBEDT dataNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 6

Record State Visitor Arrivals 2016

j 2013 2014 <2015 2016

850,000

• 800,000

750,000

700,000

650,000EZ 600,000

550,000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Hawaii Tourism AuthorityNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 7

State Visitor Spending IncreasesMonthly State Visitor Spending Patterns, 2009-2016

Percent Change from Prior YearVisitor SDendinci ($mil, Seas. Adil (Left Axis I

30’YoL..Cua,

20%>-0

CCu

4fl0I -— IV /00

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-20%a,0

-30%

Source: Hawaii Tourism AuthorityHawaii Workforce Development Council

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Source: Fed Res BankNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 11

Job Recovery Uneven Across CountiesJob Patterns by Counties (indexed change, Dec. 2007=100%)

0ahu Hawaii Island —Maui —Kauai

110%

80%E

75%o 0 0 0 0 0 0

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Source: DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 12

Likewise for Unemployment Rate

12

1!

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8

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6:

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4

3

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Unemployment Rate by County(SeasonIly Adjusted)

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if ‘ 1 Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 13

—Hawaii County

Kauai Cou nty

Maui County

Honolulu County

Job Growth HonoluluChange in Jobs from Same lVlonth in Prior Year

(Honolulu County, August 2016)

Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr.

Professional & Business Services

Health Care & Social Assistance

Food Services & Drinking Places

Accommodation

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

Educational Services

Federal

Financial Activities

Transp., Warehousing, Util.

Local

Other Services IRetail Trade I

Manufacturing PInformation I

Wholesale Trade

Government

State -.

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000

0 f,-.,tr,,.,,;, Lb., I

Chart by DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 14

Job Growth Maui CountyChange in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year

(Maui County, August 2016)



State

Other Services



Government



Information

Man u fact u ring


Federal


Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade

Local

Accommodation

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800


Job Growth Hawaii IslandChange in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year

(Hawaii County, August 2016)



State

Nat, Resources, Mining, Constr.

Government

A cc omm o dat on

Information



Manufacturing

Federal

Other Services


Retail Trade -

\/Vholesale Trade

Local

Fin ancial Activities


-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500

S


Job Growth KauaiChange in Jobs from Same Month in Prior Year

(Kauai County, August 2016)

Food Services & Drinking Places -



StateGovernment

Accommodation

Other Services

Information

Local

Federal



Retail Trade

Manufacturing


Wholesale Trade



-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800


Forecasts for Hawaii


Council on Revenues GDP Forecast

Hawaii Real GOP Growth, 2005-20196

5

4

‘-3m

III

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19


Visitor Arrival ForecastDBEDT Forecasts (30 2016): Visitor Arriva’s

Visitor Arrivals (Air only)

_______________

9.5 18,.

15%9.0

12%

8.59%

8.0 6%

3%7.5

0%

7,0-3%

]. ii . .ii... - . ,,

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Visitor arrival (person) —-—-Annual growth rate )%)

a

Air only Total

annual annual

person growth person growth

l%l 1%)

2005 7,416,574 7.3% 7,494,236 7.2%

2006 7,528,105 1.5% 7,628,117 1.8%

2007 7,496,820 -0.4% 7,627,819 0.0%

2008 6,713,436 -10.4% 6,822,912 -10.6%

2009 6,420,448 -4.4% 6,517,054 -4.5%

2010 6,916,894 7.7% 7,018,133 7.7%

2011 7,174,398 3.7% 7,299,048 4.0%

2012 7,867,143 9.7% 8,028,742 10,0%

2013 8,003,474 1,7% 8,174,460 1.8%

2014 8,196,342 24% 8,320,785 1.8%

2015 8,563,018 4,5% 8,679,564 4,3%

2016 8,732,583 2 0’. 8.844,176 1 9

2017 8,885,4’t6 1.83u 8,997,040 1.7’,,

2018 9,044,986 1.8’. 9,156,579 1 8’.

2019 9,205,102 1.8% 9,316,696 1.7’

Chart by DBEDTNovember 4,, 201 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 20

Visitor Spending ForecastDBEDT Forecasts (3Q 2016): Visitor Expenditure

Visitor Expenditure (Air only)

0

19,000

17,000 -15,000

13,000

11,000

9,000

7,000

5,000 .ii[i

18%

15’

12%

9%

6%

3%

0%

3%

-6%

-9%

12%

-15%

-19%

/

I2014‘ll

2016 2018

Air only Total

annual annual

$million growth $million growth

1%) (%)

2005 11,650 9.4% 11,904 9.6%

2006 12,243 5.1% 12,492 4.9%

2007 12,578 2.7% 12,811 2.6%

2008 11,182 -11.1% 11,398 -11.0%

2009 9,794 -12.4% 9,993 -12.3%

2010 10,867 10.9% 11,066 10.7%

2011 12,047 10.9% 12,180 10.1%

2012 14,193 17.8% 14,365 17.9%

2013 14,352 1.1% 14,521 1.1%

2014 14,809 3.2% 14,973 3.1%

2015 14,938 0.9% 15,111 0.9%

2016 15,420 ..2’ 15,598 3.2’,

2017 15,944 34% 16,124 3.3%

2018 16,610 4.2% 16,793 4,3%

2019 17,298 .1 1% 17,484 4.1%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Vinitor expenditure —Annual growth rate (%)


COR Visitor ForecastHawaii Visitor Arrivals and Expenditures, 2005-2019

I Visitor arrivals by air ‘Visitor expenditures I20.00%

15.00%

4::::H-15.00%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19


COR Construction ForecastHawaii Construction Completed, 2005-2019

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%>-

5.0% I0.0% i:JrIT.nv I

-10.0%

-15.0%

-20.0%05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19


COR TPI ForecastHawaii Real Personal Income, 2005-2019

5.0%

4.0%

>-52.0%0 I

-1.0%

-2.0%05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19


Long-range Job Forecast

Figure 1-3. Average Annual Growth of Total Civilian Jobs for the State

5%

4%

3% Actual Projected

2°

_

fin J1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-

75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40


Long-range Income Forecast

Figure 1-2 Average Annual Growth of Real Personal Iticome for the State

1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Chart by DBEDT

5%

-r

3%

Actual Projected

1%

0%nm


.Features of Hawaii sLabor Market


Our “Thin” Labor MarketLabor Force In Selected Markets, 2015

, 10

LA Area SF&SouthBay Seattle Area Portland Hawaii

Source: US BLSNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 28

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Rewards for Education?Earnings in Hawaii Versus US

0Cl

40,000

L1.I 30,000C

20,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

j US •Hawaii

10,000

0 I I I IPopulation 25 Less than high High school Some college

years and over school graduate graduate or associat&swith earnings (includes degree

equivalency)

Bachelorsdegree

Graduate orprofessional

degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau,2014, American Community

Survey 33November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council

Hawaii’s Aging PopulationHawaii Population Distribution, 2015 - 2025

65+

55-64

_45-542025

‘ 35-44 2015

<2534Dependency ratio:

15-24

0-14

- 5 10 15 20 25

Percent of Total Population

Author’s calculations usingNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council DBEDT data

Labor Force Participation DeclineFigure 2-3, Projection of Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Group (BLS)

90

SO 25to34

70 - Total

60

____

50 55 to 64 16 to 24

40

‘o :65to74 —

75 and over0 rr-’r”--—r----r •‘r’-rrr’-r rr

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


Concerns


External Risk Factors

Labor market shiftsu Role of technology/education

i Income inequality

Anti-globalization1i Disillusion with free trade

i Resistance to migration

Brexit

Political uncertaintiesDeclining role of US

i Political hotspots


Internal Risk factors

Insular mentalityFocus on self-sufficiency

i “Brain drain” or “brain gain”?

Uncertainty about Hawaiian sovereigntyi TMT and other issues

Debt and unfunded liabilities

Deciding who we want to bei Singapore or Molokai?

i Are they mutually exclusive?

November 4, 2016 Hawaii Workiorce Development Council 38

Unfunded Liabilities: HawaiianStyle

Unfunded liabilities are future debts.

Public employee retirement benefits:$8.2 billion in total ($5,236 per Hawaiiresident)

i Public employee retiree health benefits:

$13.6 billion in total ($9,973 per Hawaiiresident)

Source: KaLbert Young, Dir. of B&F, “Overview of theState’s General Fund FiscaL Condition”, Dec. 2012


Lessons for Labor Market

Uphill battle to expand our jobopportunities

To succeed we need to find niches...i ...but which niches?

Need policies that

i Are pro-jobsU Encourage, embrace, and reward change


Thanks. Questions?


Extra slides


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,

Hawaii Job Growth by SectorLeisureand Hospitality


Trade, Transportation, Utilities

Education & Health Services

Construction

_________


Manufacturing

Other Services

Government

(2,000) 2,000 6,000 10,000 14,000

Jobs Added 201 0-2015

Source: DBEDTNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 44

Hawaii Personal Income

$50,000

$45,000

$40,000Cz $35,000

g $30,000

$25,000

$20,000

•- $15,000

$10,000

D $5,000

Per Capita Personal Income, US and Hawaii

Source: US Bureau ofHawaii Workforce Developmentc0conomic Analysis

I United States =Hawaii

November 4, 2016 45

State Government Revenues GrowState General Fund Revenue Growth, 2006-16, change from prior year (%)

40

20

1:

- Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl - Cl Cl . Cl -

aaaaaoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

CD CD F 1- 0) 0) 0 0 - . C1 C’1 Cl Cl If) U CD0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - ‘ ‘ - - - v t000000000000000000000

Source: Hawaii State Department of TaxationNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council 46

Likewise for Counties—Maui Hawaii Kauai Honolulu (Right Axis) I

$300 $1,200

$250 $1,000

.$200 $500

$150 $600

::: _—‘‘“i :;::

4’ 4çco \ çb 4ç(14

‘c_Is-Is ‘c-Is <Is <Is <Is

Sources: County annual financial reportsHawaii Workforce Development CouncilNovember 4, 2016 47

Real Estate Prices Slow Recovery

120%

Oahu Haw IsI Maui Kauai

100%

w00

ii0

4-’

C)C.)

40%

20%

0%

Honolulu Board of Realtors

YTD2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 2016

Sources: Hawaii Info Serv, Realtor Assoc Maui,


z 0 CD 0 CD

Jan

-0

Jul-

07

Jan

-0

Jul-

08

Jan

-0

Jul-

09

Jan

-I

Jul-

10

Jan

-I

Jul-

Il

Jan-I

Jul-

12

Jan-I

Jul-

13

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14

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Completed Construction GrowsStatewide Construction General Excise Tax Base

40

30I

20

110

C,

C

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-30

cd d ‘V ‘V b’ q, o’ Oj’ ‘ c’ ‘ ,‘ ‘ o’

Source: Hawaii State Department of TaxationHawaii Workforce Development Council

i.miI.11

November 4, 2016 50

Documents

Excellence The Outlook for Hawaii’s Economy and Labor MarketNovember 4, 2016 Hawaii Workforce Development Council. Agenda Current economic conditions D Contributors to GDP i Labor