Example ETA

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LR-101-11.3-2B-94

FIELD DEMONSTRATION WORKSHOP ON UNDERSTANDING THE RISK

ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-CAPACITY PASSENGER VESSELS IN MYRTLE BEACH

Written by:

Vernon H. Guthrie

June 2000

This report !s prep!re" by #$# %ntern!tion!&' %n(.' !n )B* Group +o,p!ny' or the .*.+o!st Gu!r" un"er /e&i ery r"er u,ber /T+G39-99- -#00241.


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SUMMARY

!rine *! ety i(e 5 * 6 +h!r&eston is (on(erne" !bout the ris7 !sso(i!te" ith oper!tin8hi8h-(!p!(ity p!ssen8er esse&s 58!,in8 esse&s6 out o yrt&e Be!(h to points three ,i&es o shore.

T o 8!,in8 esse&s (urrent&y oper!te out o yrt&e Be!(h. #!(h (!n (!rry 00 peop&e on bo!r"ho e er' !n ! er!8e o 2;0 is ,ore (o,,on. The ris7-b!se" "e(ision bein8 !""resse" is


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per(ent!8e point in(re!se in the &i7e&ihoo" o su((ess u& res(ue ro, $uestion 1 to$uestion 3 in"i(!tes on&y ! ,!r8in!& bene it to re=uirin8 the 8!,in8 esse&s to !& !ys be

ithin 20 ,inutes o e!(h other. )n i,port!nt !(tor &i,itin8 this bene it is the r!(tion o ti,e th!t the esse&s !re oper!tin8 in (o&" !ter !n" !t ni8ht. The !n!&ysis te!, eApe(tsth!t this "i eren(e ou&" be si,i&!r or the (!se ith 2;0 on bo!r". )&so' b!se" on the

pre ious obser !tion' the !n!&ysis te!, "oes not be&ie e th!t &o erin8 the 8o!& to 93Dres(ue" i&& si8ni i(!nt&y ! e(t the res(ue su((ess r!te i the 8!,in8 esse&s !re st!tione"

ithin 20 ,inutes o e!(h other.

Re=uirin8 %B)s h!s the 8re!test e e(t on the &i7e&ihoo" o res(ue 8i en th!t ! (!t!strophi(e ent o((urre" on ! 8!,in8 esse&. The %B)s ,!7e ! si8ni i(!nt "i eren(e by pro i"in8 ! ,e!ns or 8ettin8 peop&e out o the !ter i,,e"i!te&y. er or,in8 ! ,ore "et!i&e" stu"y (ou&" i,pro e the(on i"en(e in the in"i i"u!& (!se resu&ts ho e er' the !n!&ysis te!, be&ie es th!t the re&!ti e resu&ts5e.8.' the !(tor o E i,pro e,ent ro, re=uirin8 %B)s on bo!r"6 ro, this stu"y ou&" not (h!n8esi8ni i(!nt&y.

etho"s or retrie in8 peop&e ro, the !ter hen 8!,in8 esse&s "o not h! e %B)s re=uire

subst!nti!&&y ,ore ti,e. This !""ition!& ti,e si8ni i(!nt&y in(re!ses the (h!n(e o "e!th ro,hypother,i! !n" resu&ts in ! re&!ti e&y &o &i7e&ihoo" o su((ess u&&y res(uin8 either !&& or the,! ority o the peop&e in the !ter.

The e ent tree !n!&ysis too& e,p&oye" or this pro e(t or7e" e&& in !ssessin8 !&tern!ti eres(ue str!te8ies !n" in i"enti yin8 the prob!b&e out(o,es. This too& !ppe!rs to be e&& suite" or

pro i"in8 ris7 in or,!tion or !""ressin8 e ent-oriente" ,ish!ps o interest.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section 7age

S899AR: ............................................................................................................................... iii

LIST ;< TA4LES A=> 8'TI;= ............................................................................................................. 1

*. ;4?E'TI,ES .................................................................................................................... 3

$. A77R;A'@ ...................................................................................................................... ;

. RES8LTS ........................................................................................................................... 11

+. ;4SER,ATI;=S .............................................................................................................. 13

. ';='L8SI;= .................................................................................................................. 1;

A==EB ..................................................................................................................................... )-1

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LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Table >escri!tion 7age

*.1 Ris7-b!se" %n or,!tion )""ressin8 #!(h $uestion....................................................... i

3.1 e,bers o the )n!&ysis Te!,....................................................................................... ;

3.2 *e&e(te" Ris7-b!se" %n or,!tion or )""ressin8 #!(h $uestion................................... E

4.1 Ris7-b!se" %n or,!tion )""ressin8 #!(h $uestion....................................................... 11

escri!tion 7age

).1 # ent Tree or $uestion 1 I +!se %................................................................................. )-3

).2 # ent Tree or $uestion 1 I +!se %%................................................................................ )-;

).3 # ent Tree or $uestion 1 I +!se %V.............................................................................. )-9

).4 # ent Tree or $uestion 2 I +!se %................................................................................. )-13

).; # ent Tree or $uestion 3 I +!se %................................................................................. )-1E

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1. % TR / +T%

!rine *! ety i(e 5 * 6 +h!r&eston is responsib&e or port oper!tions in yrt&e Be!(h.+urrent&y' t o hi8h-(!p!(ity p!ssen8er esse&s 5use" or o shore 8!,in86 oper!te out o yrt&e

Be!(h to points !t &e!st three ,i&es ro, shore. These esse&s !re in"i i"u!&&y r!te" or 00 peop&e'oper!te ye!r-roun" "urin8 the "!y !n" !t ni8ht' !n" h! e &i,ite" onbo!r" res(ue e=uip,ent beyon" person!& &ot!tion "e i(es. The esse& (re is tr!ine" to retrie e peop&e ro, the !ter. The esse&s!re re8u&!r&y inspe(te" by * personne& ho e er' the +o!st Gu!r" is (on(erne" !bout the ris7 to

p!ssen8ers !n" (re i e eryone ,ust !b!n"on ship hi&e !t &e!st three ,i&es ro, shore.

The ne!rest &o!tin8 +o!st Gu!r" !ssets !re in #&i@!beth +ity !n" +h!r&eston. %n per e(te!ther (on"itions "urin8 the "!y' the ne!rest &o!tin8 !sset re=uires 4; to 0 ,inutes to respon" to

the &i7e&y &o(!tion o ! "istresse" 8!,in8 esse&. The ne!rest !ir !ssets !re in #&i@!beth +ity !n"*! !nn!h' !n" these re=uire 4; ,inutes to respon"' e!ther per,ittin8. The +o!st Gu!r" is(on(erne" th!t its (urrent response (!p!bi&ities ,i8ht be in!"e=u!te 8i en ! (!t!strophi( e ent in this&o(!tion. There ore' the +o!st Gu!r" is intereste" in eAp&orin8 the o&&o in8:

• ther types o response str!te8ies to ! (!t!strophi( 8!,in8 esse& e ent

• ut(o,es o these !&tern!ti e response str!te8ies !n" the &e e& o &oss !sso(i!te" ith e!(h!&tern!ti e str!te8y

This report "o(u,ents the use o the e ent tree &o8i( ,o"e&in8 too& or un"erst!n"in8 the ris7 !sso(i!te" ith oper!tin8 hi8h-(!p!(ity p!ssen8er esse&s out o yrt&e Be!(h. Represent!ti es

ro, the +o!st Gu!r" s * +h!r&eston !n" Rese!r(h !n" /e e&op,ent +enter 5RC/+6' !s e&& !sthose ro, #$# %ntern!tion!&' %n(. 5#$#6' te!,e" to per or, this !n!&ysis.

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2. OBJECTIVES

The ob e(ti es or this !n!&ysis in(&u"e" the o&&o in8:

• sin8 ! &o8i( ,o"e&in8 too& 5e ent tree !n!&ysis6 to he&p +o!st Gu!r" personne&=u!&it!ti e&y !n" =u!ntit!ti e&y un"erst!n" the ris7 to peop&e on hi8h-(!p!(ity p!ssen8er

esse&s oper!tin8 ro, yrt&e Be!(h

• +onsi"erin8 !&tern!ti e response str!te8ies !n" the e e(t these !&tern!ti es h! e on ris7

• He&pin8 * +h!r&eston personne& be(o,e ,ore !,i&i!r !n" ,ore (o, ort!b&e ith ris7 !n!&ysis !s ! !&u!b&e !""ition to "e(ision-,!7in8 pro(esses

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3. APPROACH

or this !n!&ysis' the +o!st Gu!r" s pri,!ry ob e(ti e !s to i"enti y !&tern!ti e responsestr!te8ies !n" the "i erent out(o,es !sso(i!te" ith e!(h !&tern!ti e 8i en th!t ! (!t!strophi( e ent

o((urs to one o the 8!,in8 esse&s hi&e it is three ,i&es o shore. This in(&u"es !ssessin8 thee e(ts o ,u&tip&e s! e8u!r"s or e!(h s(en!rio. )((or"in8 to the Risk-based Decision-making Guidelines ' !n e ent tree !n!&ysis !ppro!(h is !ppropri!te to !""ress these possib&e out(o,es hi&e(onsi"erin8 the e e(ts o the !rious s! e8u!r"s 5&ines o !ssur!n(e6.

)n e ent tree !n!&ysis is bui&t on the o&&o in8 se en steps:

*tep 1 I /e ine the !(ti ity o interest*tep 2 I %"enti y the initi!tin8 e ent o interest*tep 3 I %"enti y &ines o !ssur!n(e !n" physi(!& pheno,en!*tep 4 I /e ine ,ish!p s(en!rios*tep ; I )n!&y@e ,ish!p se=uen(e out(o,es*tep I *u,,!ri@e resu&ts*tep E I se the resu&ts in "e(ision ,!7in8

These steps !re (onsistent ith the steps out&ine" or !n e ent tree !n!&ysis in the Risk-based Decision-making Guidelines .

T!b&e 3.1 &ists the ,e,bers o the !n!&ysis te!,.

The re,!in"er o this se(tion "es(ribes' in ,ore "et!i&' the st!7eho&"ers !ppro!(h or i,p&e,entin8 e!(h o the se en steps o the e ent tree !n!&ysis too&.

Table $.1 9embers of the Anal sis Team

Team 9ember ;rganiCation

Bri!n /o&ph +o!st Gu!r" RC/+

/! e Jersey Group +h!r&eston

Ro8er *,ith * +h!r&eston

i7e *pen(e * +h!r&eston

Vernon Guthrie 1 #$#1Te!, &e!"er

STEP 1 – DEFINE THE ACTIVITY OF INTEREST

/e inin8 the !(ti ity o interest re=uires:

• n"erst!n"in8 the ris7-b!se" "e(ision5s6 bein8 ,!"e• /eter,inin8 the =uestions th!t the ris7 !n!&ysis nee"s to !ns er to in &uen(e the "e(ision5s6

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• /e inin8 the ris7-b!se" in or,!tion 5i.e.' in or,!tion type' pre(ision' (ert!inty' !n""e e&op,ent (ost6 th!t i&& !ns er the =uestions

Th D !"#"$%. The ris7-b!se" "e(ision !(in8 the +o!st Gu!r" or ! 8!,in8 esse& oper!tin8three ,i&es o shore o yrt&e Be!(h is


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(o,p&e,ent6 on bo!r". T!b&e 3.2 presents the in or,!tion the !n!&ysis te!, i"enti ie" !s potenti!&&yuse u& in !""ressin8 e!(h =uestion !n" "esi8n!tes the in or,!tion se&e(te" or !n!&ysis ith !n *.Table $.* Selected Risk-based Information for Addressing Each Question

Question

Risk-based InformationLikelihood that all on

board are rescued(no h !othermia

deaths"

Likelihood that #$% of allon board are rescued(not more than &%

h !othermia deaths"'ASE I

))on board

'ASE II*+)

on board

'ASE III))

on board

'ASE I,*+)

on board)re the eAistin8 +o!st Gu!r" resour(es!n" other s! e8u!r"s !"e=u!te> * * *

Wh!t is the bene it o re=uirin8 %B)s onthe 8!,in8 esse&s> * F

Wh!t is the bene it o re=uirin8 the8!,in8 esse&s to be ithin 20 ,inuteso e!(h other>

* F

*: *e&e(te"F+!se !s not se&e(te"

The te!, i"enti ie" the precision nee"e" or e!(h &i7e&ihoo" !s one si8ni i(!nt i8ure. This is"ri en by the (ursory n!ture o this stu"y !n" the eApe(t!tion th!t "e(isions i&& be ,!"e on hether the per(ent!8e "i eren(es in the resu&ts !re &!r8e or s,!&&.

The te!, "i" not eAp&i(it&y i"enti y the confidence nee"e" in e!(h &i7e&ihoo". Be(!use o the(ursory n!ture o this stu"y' the te!, ou&" eApe(t si8ni i(!nt un(ert!inty in the resu&ts. or eA!,p&e' ! &i7e&ihoo" esti,!te" !t 20D ,i8ht h! e !n !(tu!& !&ue o 30D or 10D. When &!r8eun(ert!inties !re eApe(te" in the resu&ts' it is o ten the re&!ti e !n" not the !bso&ute resu&ts th!t !re o

!&ue in "e(ision ,!7in8.

The te!, &i,ite" the development cost o the stu"y to the 3 "!ys o te!, ,eetin8s p&us"o(u,ent!tion ti,e. )s in !ny stu"y' the pre(ision !n" (ert!inty "e(isions "is(usse" !bo e eresi8ni i(!nt&y in &uen(e" by this "e e&op,ent (ost.

STEP 2 – IDENTIFY THE INITIATING EVENT OF INTEREST

The initi!tin8 e ent o interest (ou&" be !ny type o (!t!strophi( e ent I ro, ! esse& ire to !

(o&&ision I resu&tin8 in !&& peop&e on bo!r" the esse& !b!n"onin8 ship into the !ter. The re=uen(yo the (!t!strophi( e ent !(tu!&&y o((urrin8 !s beyon" the s(ope o the e ent tree !n!&ysis. )sep!r!te e ent tree !n!&ysis !s (on"u(te" or e!(h se&e(te" (!se sho n in T!b&e 3.2. )nneA )

presents the i e !(tu!& e ent trees "e e&ope" "urin8 this !n!&ysis.

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STEP 3 – IDENTIFY LINES OF ASSURANCE AND PHYSICAL PHENOMENA

This is the step in hi(h the sub e(t ,!tter eAperts i"enti y the oper!tion!& s! e8u!r"s' !s e&&!s the spe(i i( physi(!& pheno,en! 5 e!ther (on"itions' ti,e o "!y' !ter te,per!ture' et(.6! e(tin8 this s(en!rio. )n un"erst!n"in8 o the (hrono&o8y o s! e8u!r" use !n" hen the physi(!&

pheno,en! !re i,port!nt in the &oss se=uen(e is essenti!&.

%n this !n!&ysis' sub e(t ,!tter eAperts su88este" se er!& &ines o !ssur!n(e !n" physi(!& pheno,en!. )n e ent tree be8ins ith the initi!tin8 e ent !n" br!n(hes !t e!(h &ine o !ssur!n(e or physi(!& pheno,en!. The up !r" br!n(h re &e(ts the su((ess o the &ine o !ssur!n(e or the eAisten(eo the spe(i ie" physi(!& pheno,en!. or eA!,p&e' one o the irst re&e !nt physi(!& pheno,enoni"enti ie" !s the !ter te,per!ture ≥ 0 ° . The up !r" br!n(h or this physi(!& pheno,enonin"i(!tes th!t the !ter te,per!ture is 8re!ter th!n 0 ° ' !n" hi8her !ter te,per!tures u&ti,!te&yre"u(e the ris7 o hypother,i!. The &ines o !ssur!n(e !n" physi(!& pheno,en! (onsi"ere" in thee ent tree !n!&ysis in(&u"e" the o&&o in8:

• W!r, !ter • /!yti,e• *e(on" 8!,in8 esse& on site ithin 20 ,inutes• ther esse&s on site ithin 20 ,inutes• ther 5in(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 esse&s on site ithin 0 ,inutes• eop&e su((ess u&&y into %B)s• *u((ess u& res(ue prior to hypother,i!

% %B)s !re not ! !i&!b&e' the response ti,e nee"e" or res(uers to !rri e !t the s(ene o thee ent' in" !&& o the "ri tin8 i(ti,s' !n" pu&& the i(ti,s into the res(ue (r! t ou&" be the &!r8est

!(tor in "eter,inin8 hether the res(ue ou&" be su((ess u&. The res(ue (r! t (ou&" be the other

8!,in8 esse&' esse&s o opportunity in the !re!' !n" +o!st Gu!r" !ssets in the !re! or respon"in8ro, the ne!rest st!tions. Be(!use e other esse&s oper!te in this !re!' the !n!&ysis te!, eApe(te"the best (h!n(e or res(ue to (o,e ro, the other 8!,in8 esse& oper!tin8 ne!rby. % the other 8!,in8 esse& !s not ne!rby' then the neAt best (h!n(e o res(ue is ro, ! +o!st Gu!r" &o!tin8!sset st!tione" !t either +h!r&eston or #&i@!beth +ity.

STEP – DEFINE MISHAP SCENARIOS

%n this step' the !n!&ysis te!, "eter,ines the ,ish!p pro8ression throu8h the &ines o !ssur!n(e!n" physi(!& pheno,en!. )s e!(h &ine o !ssur!n(e or physi(!& pheno,enon is !ppro!(he"' the!n!&ysis te!, "eter,ines the subse=uent p!th b!se" on the su((essK !i&ure o the pre ious &ines o

!ssur!n(e or the eAisten(eK!bsen(e o other physi(!& pheno,en!. #!(h p!th en"s ith either su((ess u& or unsu((ess u& res(ue o the peop&e.

!rt o this step in o& es !ssi8nin8 prob!bi&ities o su((ess or e!(h o the &ines o !ssur!n(e!n" physi(!& pheno,en!. or eA!,p&e' the !ter te,per!ture three ,i&es o shore is eApe(te" to be8re!ter th!n 0 ° 5su((ess6 !bout 40D o the ti,e hi&e the 8!,in8 esse&s !re oper!tin8.There ore' the ,ish!p pro8ression throu8h this physi(!& pheno,enon in o& es ! prob!bi&ity o su((ess o 0.40. *o,eti,es' the prob!bi&ity o su((ess throu8h ! &ine o !ssur!n(e is 0. %n these


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(!ses' the &ine o !ssur!n(e' !s "e ine"' i&& ne er su((ee". When the prob!bi&ity o su((ess is 0' !str!i8ht &ine i&& usu!&&y be "r! n' r!ther th!n ! br!n(h ith !n up !r" p!th sho in8 0 !n" the"o n !r" p!th sho in8 1.0.

STEP – ANALY/E MISHAP SE&UENCE OUTCOMES

The e ent tree !n!&ysis i"enti ies se er!& "o@en &oss se=uen(es b!se" on the ,ish!p pro8ressionthrou8h e!(h &ine o !ssur!n(e !n" physi(!& pheno,enon. The prob!bi&ity o o((urren(e o e!(h &ossse=uen(e is b!se" on the pro"u(t o !&& o the pre(e"in8 prob!bi&ities eAperien(e" by the p!rti(u&!r ,ish!p pro8ression throu8h e!(h &ine o !ssur!n(e !n" physi(!& pheno,enon.

n(e !&& o the out(o,es or ! 8i en (!se !re eAp&ore"' the prob!bi&ities o !&& o the


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. RESULTS

T!b&e 4.1 presents the ris7-b!se" in or,!tion 8ener!te" to !ns er e!(h o the three ris7-b!se"=uestions spe(i ie" in *tep 1 o *e(tion 3. The in or,!tion o(uses on the &i7e&ihoo" o res(ue 8i en

! (!t!strophi( e ent h!s (!use" !&& on bo!r" to enter the !ter. This t!b&e is the pri,!ry or7 pro"u(t ro, this !n!&ysis.

Table .1 Risk-based Information Addressing Each Question

Question

Risk-based InformationLikelihood that all on

board are rescued(no h !othermia

deaths"

Likelihood that #$% of allon board are rescued(not more than &%

h !othermia deaths"'ASE I

))on board

'ASE II*+)

on board

'ASE III))

on board

'ASE I,*+)

on board1. )re the eAistin8 +o!st Gu!r"resour(es !n" other s! e8u!r"s!"e=u!te>

10D 23D 2 D

2. Wh!t is the bene it o re=uirin8 %B)son the 8!,in8 esse&s> E3D F

3. Wh!t is the bene it o re=uirin8 the8!,in8 esse&s to be ithin 20 ,inuteso e!(h other>

1ED F

F+!se !s not !n!&y@e"

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. OBSERVATIONS

The o&&o in8 p!r!8r!phs pro i"e obser !tions !bout h!t resu&ts ere pro i"e"' the pre(isiono the resu&ts' !n" the (on i"en(e in the resu&ts. %n !""ition' obser !tions !re ,!"e !bout the resu&ts

or e!(h o the three =uestions !""resse" by the stu"y.• 'om!leteness of the results )s sho n in T!b&e 4.1' e!(h =uestion (ou&" pro i"e up to

our resu&ts to !i" in !ns erin8 the =uestion. Be(!use o !n!&ysis ti,e (onstr!ints' se er!&(!ses in T!b&e 4.1 ere not "ire(t&y !n!&y@e". or the irst =uestion' the te!, 8ener!te"resu&ts or three o the our (!ses. Ho e er' or the se(on" !n" thir" =uestions' the on&yresu&ts the te!, 8ener!te" ere or the (!se

i8ure.

• 'onfidence in the results The te!, "i" not eAp&i(it&y i"enti y the confidence nee"e" ine!(h &i7e&ihoo". Be(!use o the (ursory n!ture o this stu"y' there is si8ni i(!nt un(ert!intyin the resu&ts. or eA!,p&e' ! &i7e&ihoo" esti,!te" !t 20D ,i8ht h! e !n !(tu!& !&ue

bet een 30D or 10D. The &!r8e un(ert!inties in the resu&ts re"u(e the !&ue o the !bso&utenu,bers or "e(ision ,!7in8. Ho e er' the &!r8e re&!ti e "i eren(es bet een so,e o theresu&ts ,!7es ! re&!ti e (o,p!rison o the resu&ts !&u!b&e in "e(ision ,!7in8. or eA!,p&e' there is !bout ! !(tor o E "i eren(e in the resu&ts or +!se 1.% !n" +!se 2.%. This

in"i(!tes ! (&e!r bene it to h! in8 the %B)s on bo!r".

• Question 1 Are the e/isting 'oast 0uard resources and other safeguards ade uate2The resu&t or +!se % in"i(!tes th!t there is on&y !bout ! 10D (h!n(e o

by 3 per(ent!8e points to 2 D ith 2;0 on bo!r". There ore' re=uirin8 res(ue o on&y

peop&e ou&" h! e to be res(ue" ithin the s!,e ti,e perio"' the in(re!se or +!se %%% i&& be e en &ess th!n the 3-per(ent!8e-point in(re!se or +!se %V.

• Question * 3hat is the benefit of re uiring I4As on the gaming 5essels2 +!se %' hi(hre=uires %B)s on the esse&s' in(re!ses the &i7e&ihoo" o

bene it to h! in8 the %B)s. The %B)s essenti!&&y pro i"e the e=ui !&ent o i,,e"i!teonsite res(ue esse&s' !&&o in8 peop&e in the !ter to r!pi"&y 8et out o the !ter !n" ! oi",u(h o the "!n8er ro, hypother,i!. Whi&e not !n!&y@e"' the te!, eApe(ts th!t the other

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three (!ses ou&" h! e e en hi8her su((ess prob!bi&ities. )&so' the (!ses in o& in8 on&y2;0 on bo!r" !re eApe(te" to h! e hi8her su((ess prob!bi&ities th!n the (!ses in o& in8 00on bo!r".

• Question $ 3hat is the benefit of re uiring the gaming 5essels to be 6ithin *)

minutes of each other2 +!se %' hi(h re=uires th!t the 8!,in8 esse&s be ithin 20,inutes o e!(h other' in(re!ses the &i7e&ihoo" o


25/45

0. CONCLUSION

Re=uirin8 %B)s h!s the 8re!test e e(t on the &i7e&ihoo" o res(ue 8i en th!t ! (!t!strophi(e ent o((urre" on ! 8!,in8 esse&. The %B)s ,!7e ! si8ni i(!nt "i eren(e by pro i"in8 ! ,e!ns or

8ettin8 peop&e out o the !ter i,,e"i!te&y. er or,in8 ! ,ore "et!i&e" stu"y (ou&" i,pro e the(on i"en(e in the in"i i"u!& (!se resu&ts ho e er' the !n!&ysis te!, be&ie es th!t the re&!ti e resu&ts5e.8.' the !(tor o E i,pro e,ent ro, re=uirin8 %B)s on bo!r"6 ro, this stu"y ou&" not (h!n8esi8ni i(!nt&y.

etho"s or retrie in8 peop&e ro, the !ter hen 8!,in8 esse&s "o not h! e %B)s re=uiresubst!nti!&&y ,ore ti,e. This !""ition!& ti,e si8ni i(!nt&y in(re!ses the (h!n(e o "e!th ro,hypother,i! !n" resu&ts in ! re&!ti e&y &o &i7e&ihoo" o su((ess u&&y res(uin8 either !&& or the,! ority o the peop&e in the !ter.

The e ent tree !n!&ysis too& e,p&oye" or this pro e(t or7e" e&& in !ssessin8 !&tern!ti eres(ue str!te8ies !n" in i"enti yin8 the prob!b&e out(o,es. This too& !ppe!rs to be e&& suite" or

pro i"in8 ris7 in or,!tion or !""ressin8 e ent-oriente" ,ish!ps o interest.

1;


26/45

1


27/45

ANNE

i8ures ).1 throu8h ).; present e ent tree "!t! or the i e (!ses !n!&y@e" by the te!,./es(riptions o the !nnot!tions (ont!ine" ithin the e ent trees !re in(&u"e".

)-1


28/45

)-2


29/45


30/45

=otes for Question 1 D 'ase I )) on board second gaming 5essel not re uired noI4As and must rescue all (contFd"

/.2 ther Vesse&s on *ite Within 20 inutes: /urin8 the ni8ht !n" "urin8 se!son!& (o&"e!ther' other esse&s in su i(ient nu,bers !re not eApe(te" to be on site ithin 20

,inutes.

#.1 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: ot eApe(te" be(!use esse&s !t their ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes.

.1 eop&e su((ess u&&y into %B)s: one ! !i&!b&e.

G.1 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Wou&" re(o er !&& peop&e in the !ter 90Do the ti,e be(!use su i(ient esse&s !re i,,e"i!te&y ! !i&!b&e ho e er' 10D o theti,e so,eone ou&" "ie ro, hypother,i! "ue to not bein8 retrie e" ro, the !ter in un"er 2 hours.

G.2 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: *u i(ient !ssets i&& not be on the s(eneithin 1 hour there ore' so,e peop&e i&& be in the !ter or 3 to 4 hours. Whi&e this

e ent o((urs in !r, !ter "urin8 "!y&i8ht' it is ery un&i7e&y th!t !&& 00 peop&eou&" be res(ue" be ore h! in8 ! hypother,i! "e!th. )&& peop&e in the !ter ou&"

be re(o ere" on&y 2D o the ti,e.

G.3 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite !n" the !ter is !r,' re(o ery o !&& peop&e in the !ter ou&" o((ur on&y 20Do the ti,e. per!tions ou&" be !t ni8ht' ,!7in8 it "i i(u&t to &o(!te !&& o the

peop&e in ti,e.

G.4 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the !ter is !r,' su i(ient!ssets i&& not be on the s(ene ithin 2 hours. There ore' so,e peop&e i&& be in the

!ter or 3 to 4 hours' !n" !t &e!st 1 hypother,i! "e!th !,on8 00 peop&e iseApe(te" in this situ!tion.

G.; *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite "urin8 "!y&i8ht' re(o ery o !&& peop&e in the !ter ou&" o((ur on&y 1D o theti,e. per!tions ou&" be in (o&" !ter' hi(h ou&" se ere&y &i,it the ti,e tosu((ess u&&y res(ue the peop&e.

G. *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the e ent o((urs "urin8"!y&i8ht' su i(ient !ssets i&& not be on the s(ene ithin 2 hours. There ore' so,e

peop&e i&& be in the (o&" !ter or 3 to 4 hours' !n" !t &e!st 1 hypother,i! "e!th!,on8 00 peop&e is eApe(te".

G.E *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use o "ispersion !t ni8ht !n" (o&"!ter' the !n!&ysis te!, "oes not eApe(t to in" e eryone in ti,e.

)-4


31/45


32/45

=otes for Question 1 D 'ase II *+) on board second gaming 5essel not re uired noI4As and must rescue all

).1 W!r, W!ter: H! e !r, !ter 40D o the ti,e 5i.e.' 0 ° or hi8her6 b!se" on &o(!&*)R te!, eAperien(e.

B.1 /!yti,e: ne o the esse&s "oes not 8o out on on"!y' We"nes"!y' !n" ri"!y"urin8 the "!yti,e. )&so' there is ! possibi&ity o (!n(e&&!tion "ue to &o (usto,er "e,!n"' hi(h ,ost&y o((urs "urin8 the "!y.

+.1 *e(on" G!,in8 Vesse& on *ite Within 20 inutes: V!ri!tion in esse& s(he"u&es !n"the possibi&ity o (!n(e&&!tion !re hi8her "urin8 the "!y. There ore' the te!, (hose !

prob!bi&ity o 0.; or ! se(on" 8!,in8 esse& bein8 on site "urin8 the "!y !n" ! prob!bi&ity o 0.E; or ! se(on" 8!,in8 esse& bein8 on site "urin8 the ni8ht.

/.1 ther Vesse&s on *ite Within 20 inutes: #Ape(t!tion th!t other esse&s 5(erti i(!te" p!ssen8er esse&s' (o,,er(i!& ishin8 esse&s' !n" re(re!tion!& (r! t6 i&& be (o,in8

!n" 8oin8 ro, the port o Litt&e Ri er ith se!son!& !ri!tions.


,inutes.

#.1 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: Whi&e esse&s !ttheir ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes' ! su i(ient nu,ber o other (o,,er(i!& !n" re(re!tion!& esse&s !re eApe(te" to be ithin 0 ,inutes o the"istresse" 8!,in8 esse& to res(ue 2;0 peop&e in the !ter "urin8 "!yti,e oper!tionsin !r, !ter.

#.2 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: Whi&e esse&s !ttheir ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes' !bout 0D o the ti,e ! su i(ientnu,ber o other (o,,er(i!& !n" re(re!tion!& esse&s !re eApe(te" to be ithin 0,inutes o the "istresse" 8!,in8 esse& to res(ue 2;0 peop&e in the !ter "urin8 theni8htti,e in !r, !ter.

#.3 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: Whi&e esse&s !ttheir ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes' !bout 0D o the ti,e ! su i(ientnu,ber o other (o,,er(i!& !n" re(re!tion!& esse&s !re eApe(te" to be ithin 0,inutes o the "istresse" 8!,in8 esse& to res(ue 2;0 peop&e in the !ter "urin8"!yti,e oper!tions in (o&" !ter.

#.4 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: Whi&e esse&s !ttheir ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes' !bout 40D o the ti,e ! su i(ientnu,ber o other (o,,er(i!& !n" re(re!tion!& esse&s !re eApe(te" to be ithin 0,inutes o the "istresse" 8!,in8 esse& to res(ue 2;0 peop&e in the !ter "urin8ni8htti,e oper!tions in (o&" !ter.

.1 eop&e *u((ess u&&y into %B)s: one ! !i&!b&e.

)-


33/45

=otes for Question 1 D 'ase II *+) on board second gaming 5essel not re uired noI4As and must rescue all (contFd"

G.1 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Wou&" re(o er !&& peop&e in the !ter 9EDo the ti,e be(!use su i(ient esse&s !re i,,e"i!te&y ! !i&!b&e ho e er' 3D o theti,e so,eone ou&" "ie ro, hypother,i! "ue to not bein8 retrie e" ro, the !ter in un"er 2 hours.

G.2 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Wou&" re(o er !&& peop&e in the !ter 9 Do the ti,e be(!use su i(ient esse&s !re ! !i&!b&e ithin 20 ,inutes ho e er' 4Do the ti,e so,eone ou&" "ie ro, hypother,i! "ue to not bein8 retrie e" ro, the

!ter in un"er 2 hours.

G.3 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Wou&" re(o er !&& peop&e in the !ter 90Do the ti,e be(!use su i(ient esse&s !re ! !i&!b&e ithin 1 hour ho e er' 10D o the ti,e so,eone ou&" "ie ro, hypother,i! "ue to not bein8 retrie e" ro, the

!ter in un"er 2 hours.


peop&e in ti,e.

G.; *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite !n" the !ter is !r,' re(o ery o !&& peop&e in the !ter ou&" o((ur on&y 10Do the ti,e. )""ition!& esse&s ou&" not be on the s(ene ithin 1 hour' !n"oper!tions ou&" be !t ni8ht' ,!7in8 it "i i(u&t to &o(!te !&& o the peop&e in ti,e.

G. *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h su i(ient !ssets ou&" be onthe s(ene ithin 1 hour' so,e peop&e ou&" be in the !ter or 2 to 4 hours. Whi&ethis e ent o((urs in !r, !ter "urin8 "!y&i8ht' it is ery un&i7e&y th!t !&& 2;0 peop&e

ou&" be res(ue" be ore h! in8 ! hypother,i! "e!th. )&& peop&e in the !ter ou&" be re(o ere" on&y ;D o the ti,e.

G.E *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the !ter is !r,' su i(ient!ssets ou&" not be on the s(ene ithin 1 hour. There ore' so,e peop&e ou&" be inthe !ter or 3 to 4 hours' !n" !t &e!st 1 hypother,i! "e!th !,on8 2;0 peop&e iseApe(te" in this situ!tion.

G. *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use the other 8!,in8 esse& is on site

"urin8 "!y&i8ht !n" !""ition!& resour(es !re ! !i&!b&e ithin 1 hour' re(o ery o !&& peop&e in the !ter is eApe(te" to o((ur 90D o the ti,e. Whi&e oper!tions ou&" bein (o&" !ter' se ere&y &i,itin8 the ti,e to su((ess u&&y res(ue the peop&e' the res(ueo 2;0 peop&e see,s e!sib&e.

G.9 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use the other 8!,in8 esse& is on site"urin8 "!y&i8ht' re(o ery o !&& peop&e in the !ter is eApe(te" to o((ur ;D o the

)-E


34/45

ti,e. Whi&e oper!tions ou&" be in (o&" !ter' se ere&y &i,itin8 the ti,e tosu((ess u&&y res(ue the peop&e' the res(ue o 2;0 peop&e see,s e!sib&e.

)-


35/45

=otes for Question 1 D 'ase II *+) on board second gaming 5essel not re uired noI4As and must rescue all (contFd"

G.10 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use o (o&" !ter !n" !""ition!&resour(es re=uirin8 !n hour or ,ore to !rri e' the !n!&ysis te!, "oes not eApe(t to

in" e eryone in ti,e.

G.11 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite' the !n!&ysis te!, eApe(ts su((ess on&y 1D o the ti,e be(!use o "ispersion !tni8ht !n" (o&" !ter.

G.12 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use o "ispersion !t ni8ht !n" (o&"!ter' the !n!&ysis te!, "oes not eApe(t to in" e eryone in ti,e.

)-9


36/45


37/45

=otes for Question 1 D 'ase I, *+) on board second gaming 5essel not re uired noI4As and must rescue #$%


B.1 /!yti,e: ne o the esse&s "oes not 8o out on on"!y' We"nes"!y' !n" ri"!y.)&so' there is ! possibi&ity o (!n(e&&!tion "ue to &o (usto,er "e,!n"' hi(h ,ost&yo((urs "urin8 the "!y.



/.1 ther Vesse&s on *ite Within 20 inutes: #Ape(t!tion th!t other esse&s 5(erti i(!te" p!ssen8er esse&s' (o,,er(i!& ishin8 esse&s' !n" re(re!tion!& (r! t6 ou&" be

(o,in8 !n" 8oin8 ro, the port o Litt&e Ri er ith se!son!& !ri!tions.


,inutes.

#.1 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: Whi&e esse&s !ttheir ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes' ! su i(ient nu,ber o other (o,,er(i!& !n" re(re!tion!& esse&s !re eApe(te" to be ithin 0 ,inutes o the"istresse" 8!,in8 esse& to res(ue 2;0 peop&e in the !ter "urin8 "!yti,e oper!tionsin !r, !ter.

#.2 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: Whi&e esse&s !ttheir ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes' !bout 0D o the ti,e ! su i(ientnu,ber o other (o,,er(i!& !n" re(re!tion!& esse&s !re eApe(te" to be ithin 0,inutes o the "istresse" 8!,in8 esse& to res(ue 2;0 peop&e in the !ter "urin8 theni8htti,e in !r, !ter.

#.3 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: Whi&e esse&s !ttheir ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes' !bout 0D o the ti,e ! su i(ientnu,ber o other (o,,er(i!& !n" re(re!tion!& esse&s !re eApe(te" to be ithin 0,inutes o the "istresse" 8!,in8 esse& to res(ue 2;0 peop&e in the !ter "urin8"!yti,e oper!tions in (o&" !ter.

#.4 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: Whi&e esse&s !ttheir ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes' !bout 40D o the ti,e ! su i(ientnu,ber o other (o,,er(i!& !n" re(re!tion!& esse&s !re eApe(te" to be ithin 0,inutes o the "istresse" 8!,in8 esse& to res(ue 2;0 peop&e in the !ter "urin8ni8htti,e oper!tions in (o&" !ter.


)-11


38/45

=otes for Question 1 D 'ase I, *+) on board second gaming 5essel not re uired noI4As and must rescue #$% (contFd"

G.1 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Wou&" re(o er 93D o the peop&e in the!ter 99D o the ti,e be(!use su i(ient esse&s !re i,,e"i!te&y ! !i&!b&e ho e er'

1D o the ti,e so,eone ou&" "ie ro, hypother,i! "ue to not bein8 retrie e" ro,the !ter in un"er 2 hours.

G.2 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Wou&" re(o er 93D o the peop&e in the!ter 9ED o the ti,e be(!use su i(ient esse&s !re ! !i&!b&e ithin 20 ,inutes

ho e er' 3D o the ti,e so,eone ou&" "ie ro, hypother,i! "ue to not bein8retrie e" ro, the !ter in un"er 2 hours.

G.3 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Wou&" re(o er 93D o the peop&e in the!ter be(!use su i(ient esse&s !re ! !i&!b&e ithin 1 hour ho e er' ED o the ti,e

so,eone ou&" "ie ro, hypother,i! "ue to not bein8 retrie e" ro, the !ter inun"er 2 hours.

G.4 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite !n" the !ter is !r,' re(o ery o 93D o the peop&e in the !ter ou&" o((ur on&y 2;D o the ti,e. per!tions ou&" be !t ni8ht' ,!7in8 it "i i(u&t to &o(!te !&&o the peop&e in ti,e.

G.; *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite !n" the !ter is !r,' re(o ery o 93D o the peop&e in the !ter ou&" o((ur on&y 1;D o the ti,e. )""ition!& esse&s ou&" not be on the s(ene ithin 1 hour'!n" oper!tions ou&" be !t ni8ht' ,!7in8 it "i i(u&t to &o(!te !&& o the peop&e inti,e.

G. *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h su i(ient !ssets i&& be on thes(ene ithin 1 hour' so,e peop&e i&& be in the !ter or 2 to 4 hours. Whi&e thise ent o((urs in !r, !ter "urin8 "!y&i8ht' it is ery un&i7e&y th!t 93D o the peop&ein the !ter ou&" be res(ue" be ore h! in8 ! hypother,i! "e!th. )&& peop&e in the

!ter ou&" be re(o ere" on&y 10D o the ti,e.

G.E *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the !ter is !r,' su i(ient!ssets i&& not be on the s(ene ithin 1 hour. There ore' so,e peop&e i&& be in the

!ter or 3 to 4 hours' !n" !t &e!st ED o the peop&e i&& "ie ro, hypother,i!.

G. *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: *in(e the other 8!,in8 esse& is on site

"urin8 "!y&i8ht !n" !""ition!& resour(es !re ! !i&!b&e ithin 1 hour' re(o ery o !&& peop&e in the !ter is eApe(te" to o((ur 9;D o the ti,e. Whi&e oper!tions ou&" bein (o&" !ter se ere&y &i,itin8 the ti,e to su((ess u&&y res(ue the peop&e' the res(uesee,s e!sib&e.

G.9 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use the other 8!,in8 esse& is on site"urin8 "!y&i8ht' re(o ery o 93D o the peop&e in the !ter is eApe(te" to o((ur 9;Do the ti,e. Whi&e oper!tions ou&" be in (o&" !ter' se ere&y &i,itin8 the ti,e tosu((ess u&&y res(ue the peop&e' the res(ue see,s e!sib&e.

)-12


39/45

=otes for Question 1 D 'ase I, *+) on board second gaming 5essel not re uired noI4As and must rescue #$% (contFd"

G.10 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use o (o&" !ter !n" !""ition!&resour(es re=uirin8 ,ore th!n !n hour to !rri e' the !n!&ysis te!, eApe(ts to res(ue93D o the peop&e on&y ;D o the ti,e.

G.11 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use o (o&" !ter !n" !""ition!&resour(es re=uirin8 ,ore th!n !n hour to !rri e' the !n!&ysis te!, "oes not eApe(t tores(ue 93D o the peop&e in ti,e.

G.12 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite !n" !""ition!& resour(es !re ! !i&!b&e ithin 1 hour' the !n!&ysis te!, eApe(tssu((ess on&y 3D o the ti,e be(!use o "ispersion !t ni8ht !n" (o&" !ter.

G.13 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite' the !n!&ysis te!, eApe(ts su((ess on&y 1D o the ti,e be(!use o "ispersion !t

ni8ht !n" (o&" !ter.

)-13


40/45


41/45

=otes for Question * D 'ase I )) on board second gaming 5essel not re uired I4Asre uired and must rescue all


B.1 /!yti,e: ne o the esse&s "oes not 8o out on on"!y' We"nes"!y' !n" ri"!y.)&so' there is ! possibi&ity o (!n(e&&!tion "ue to &o (usto,er "e,!n"' hi(h ,ost&yo((urs "urin8 the "!y.



/.1 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse& on *ite Within 20 inutes: #Ape(t!tion th!tother esse&s 5(erti i(!te" p!ssen8er esse&s' (o,,er(i!& ishin8 esse&s' !n"

re(re!tion!& (r! t6 ou&" be (o,in8 !n" 8oin8 ro, the port o Litt&e Ri er ithse!son!& !ri!tions.


,inutes.

#.1 ther 5%n(&u"in8 +o!st Gu!r"6 Vesse&s on *ite Within 0 inutes: ot eApe(te" be(!use esse&s !t their ports ou&" re=uire tr! e& ti,es M 0 ,inutes.

.1 eop&e *u((ess u&&y into %B)s: #Ape(t the peop&e in the !ter to su((ess u&&y 8etinto the %B)s 9;D o the ti,e be(!use the e ent o((urs "urin8 the "!yti,e in !r,

!ter.

.2 eop&e *u((ess u&&y into %B)s: #Ape(t the peop&e in the !ter to su((ess u&&y 8etinto the %B)s 90D o the ti,e be(!use the e ent o((urs "urin8 the ni8htti,e in !r,

!ter.

.3 eop&e *u((ess u&&y into %B)s: #Ape(t the peop&e in the !ter to su((ess u&&y 8etinto the %B)s E0D o the ti,e be(!use the e ent o((urs "urin8 the "!yti,e in (o&"

!ter.

.4 eop&e *u((ess u&&y into %B)s: #Ape(t the peop&e in the !ter to su((ess u&&y 8et

into the %B)s ;D o the ti,e be(!use the e ent o((urs "urin8 the ni8htti,e in (o&"!ter.

G.1 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: #Ape(t to su((ess u&&y re(o er e eryone be(!use !&& peop&e ere su((ess u&&y into the %B)s "urin8 the "!yti,e in !r, !ter.

)-1;


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=otes for Question * D 'ase I )) on board second gaming 5essel not re uired I4Asre uired and must rescue all (contFd"


G.3 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: *u i(ient !ssets i&& not be on the s(eneithin 1 hour there ore' so,e peop&e i&& be in the !ter or 3 to 4 hours. Whi&e this

e ent o((urs in !r, !ter "urin8 "!y&i8ht' it is ery un&i7e&y th!t !&& 00 peop&eou&" be res(ue" be ore h! in8 ! hypother,i! "e!th. )&& peop&e in the !ter ou&"

be re(o ere" on&y ;D o the ti,e.

G.4 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the e ent o((urs "urin8 theni8htti,e in !r, !ter' e eryone shou&" be su((ess u&&y res(ue" be(!use !&& peop&e

ere su((ess u&&y into the %B)s !n" the se(on" 8!,in8 esse& !s on site ithin 20

,inutes.

G.; *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite !n" the !ter is !r,' re(o ery o !&& peop&e in the !ter ou&" o((ur on&y 20Do the ti,e. per!tions ou&" be !t ni8ht' ,!7in8 it "i i(u&t to &o(!te !&& o the

peop&e in ti,e.

G. *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use the e ent o((urs "urin8 theni8htti,e in !r, !ter' 9;D o the peop&e shou&" be su((ess u&&y res(ue" be(!use!&& peop&e ere su((ess u&&y into the %B)s.

G.E *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the !ter is !r,' su i(ient!ssets i&& not be on the s(ene ithin 2 hours. There ore' so,e peop&e i&& be in the

!ter or 3 to 4 hours' !n" !t &e!st 1 hypother,i! "e!th !,on8 00 peop&e iseApe(te" in this situ!tion.

G. *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite "urin8 "!y&i8ht' re(o ery o !&& peop&e in the !ter ou&" o((ur on&y 1D o theti,e. per!tions ou&" be in (o&" !ter' hi(h ou&" se ere&y &i,it the ti,e tosu((ess u&&y res(ue the peop&e.

G.9 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the e ent o((urs "urin8"!y&i8ht' su i(ient !ssets i&& not be on the s(ene ithin 2 hours. There ore' so,e

peop&e i&& be in the (o&" !ter or 3 to 4 hours' !n" !t &e!st 1 hypother,i! "e!th!,on8 00 peop&e is eApe(te".

G.10 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use o "ispersion !t ni8ht !n" (o&"!ter' the !n!&ysis te!, "oes not eApe(t to res(ue e eryone in ti,e.

)-1


43/45

)-1E


44/45


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=otes for Question $ D 'ase I )) on board second gaming 5essel re uired no I4Asand must rescue all (contFd"




peop&e in ti,e.

G.3 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: # en thou8h the other 8!,in8 esse& is onsite "urin8 "!y&i8ht' re(o ery o !&& peop&e in the !ter ou&" o((ur on&y 1D o the

ti,e. per!tions ou&" be in (o&" !ter' hi(h ou&" se ere&y &i,it the ti,e tosu((ess u&&y res(ue the peop&e.

G.4 *u((ess u& Res(ue rior to Hypother,i!: Be(!use o "ispersion !t ni8ht !n" (o&"!ter' the !n!&ysis te!, "oes not eApe(t to in" e eryone in ti,e.

Documents

Example ETA