Evolving Mobile Industry - - Get a Free Blog Here

Copyright © Tomi T Ahonen 2011 www.tomiahonen.com Twitter: @tomiahonen

"Mobile is emerging as a mass media", Mr Ahonen adds. The Wall Street Journal, 30 Sept 2008

Evolving Mobile Industry

(Keynote Address)

Tomi T Ahonen, MBAAuthor and Consultant

Mobile Dev CampHelsinki Finland, 26 February 2011


Nokia HQ at Summer 2010

Nokia Board HAS to actin the Summer of 2010.They knew 2011 was bad.


Tomi Ahonen New View to 2012

This is my BEST CASE scenario for Nokia. Can'tbe better, can be worse.


Nokisoft Microkia Effect

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Forecast Feb 16, 2010


Nokisoft Microkia Effect - by OS

Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Forecast Feb 26, 2010


Growth and Evolution..


Growth & EvolutionLets talk about change..What is "Growth"?

It can be "Maturing" ie growing older ie 'better'As an app developer, this is building your business model and discovering new uses for your existing idea

It can be "Expansion" ie growing 'bigger'As an app developer, this is growing your market, landing new customers, growing your revenues

"Evolution" is changing into something 'different'Usually by adding a new ability, but can also mean extinguishing an old ability no longer needed

As an app developer, this is innovation and invention, it means developing your idea further


Marconi and RadioMarconi didn't believe in radio the way we understand it - in 'broadcast'In Marconi's idea, there was always a 'pair' of communication terminals, both being 'transceivers' ie both ends could 'transmit' and 'receive'His idea was wireless communicationsMarconi's first 'killer app' was to help save ships at sea, when a disaster happened - like the TitanicIn rough terms this kind of (shipping related radio communications) market might be worth some dozens of millions of dollars today (Radio in ships and boats)


Maturing of WirelessThe Wireless Communications were first used for 'ship-to-shore' communicationsThese were first using morse code ie wireless telegraphThe radio technology improved ('matured') to allow voice communications This allowed the market to expand, and added airplane communications, army tanks, police cars to have wireless radio communicationsTotal 'professional radio' is now a multi-Billion dollar business todayMarconi's original idea sustains huge global industry!


Evolution of Wireless - part 1Marconi's system had transceivers at both endsIn Broadcast there is one transmitter and thousands of specialized receivers (AM radio, FM radio, Digital)This is evolution of Marconi's ideaRadio broadcast meant that the radio broadcaster had to hire specialized radio broadcast 'artists' to talk and sing and entertain via radio. Like newscasters who had good voices for radio..Broadcast radio grew to 3.9 Billion radio receivers in use in the world And radio broadcast is a 100 Billion dollar industryThis utterly crushes Marconi's total idea in reach and scale and commercial opportunity


Evolution of Wireless - part 2Then came World War 2 and a need to detect enemy airplanes and ships..Radar!Now only one 'end' has the RAdio Detection And Ranging equipment. The other 'end' doesn't need to have any radio equipment and it can still be detected by radar. Even astroids in space can be detected by radarThis is further evolution of Marconi's original idea


Economist reported on modern warships, that 30% of the total energy produced by the engines of a modern warship, are used to power the electronics, such as radars, computers and combat systems

Source: Economist 8 Dec 2007

Electronics 30% of Warships

Pearls: Real Mobile Servicescollected by Tomi T Ahonen


Cycle 2 starts - Broadcast MaturesOriginal broadcast had radio transmitter and radio receiversThen came television ('picture radio') in the 1930s, commercially viable in the 1950sNow both the broadcast transmitting equipment and the home receiver equipment needed to be totally changedTelevisions were very expensiveYet TV grew to 1.6 Billion television sets used in the worldAnd spawned a new 300 Billion dollar industry


But Original is Still Maturing Meanwhile the original Marconi concept of wireless communications has not stopped maturingRobotic radio.. satellites! ie radio control..Radio reached the moon, Mars, Jupiter and beyond


But Original is Still Maturing Meanwhile the original Marconi concept of wireless communications has not stopped maturingIn 1979 we get cellular telecoms (ie our mobile phone industry is born) in JapanToday mobile phones reach 5.2 Billion subscriptionsAnd the 'cellular' version of mobile telecoms, ie wireless communications - is worth... 1.2 Trillion dollars per year


Marconi's Idea Growth:Ship-to-shore to all ships, most boats today $100M+Then matured to add voice for 'professional radio' today all airplanes, tanks, police cars, firetrucks, ambulances - $10 B? industryEvolved to add broadcast - $100B radio industry

That itself evolved more to add TV - a $300B businessEvolved more to Radar about a $50B dollar military and civilian radar industryMatured more to cellular: today most humans have mobile phones - $1.2T industry


Evolution of Mobile?


Our 11 Needs served by phone

Source: Tomi Ahonen book The Insider's Guide to Mobile 2011

1 - Communicate (1979 - Japan)2 - Consume / Media (1998 - Finland)3 - Charging / Payments (1999 - Philippines)4 - Commercials / Ads (2000 - Finland)5 - Create / Cameraphone (2001 - Japan)6 - Community (2003 - South Korea)7 - Cool / Fashion (2006 - Japan)8 - (Remote) Control / Robots (2007 - S Korea)9 - Context / Beyond Reality (2008 - UK)10 - Cyber / Now Plants (2009 - Japan)11 - Career / Employment (2010 - USA)


Patron Saint of MobileA statue of an angel speaking on a mobile phone now is at the Sintjanskathedral ie St John's Cathedral in Den Bosch in the NetherlandsApparently we now have a patron saint for mobile phones, St Jan



SMS Auto-Calling Center


mInfo Inc out of Shanghai has deployed response efficiency system for calling centersUsing artificial intelligence and continuous refinement the system rapidly learns and is able to respond to over 90% of calling center types of questions, when sent in via SMSRemainder get automatically forwarded to humansEnormous cost savings compared to human call centers

Source: mInfo Inc presentation, at X Media Lab Malmo 21 Jan 2011



Restaurant Service with SMSUS based TextMyFood offers restaurants a convenient SMS texting based solutionRestaurant customers can send their orders directly to kitchen via SMS - get food fasterCustomers can also send alert to waiters when ready to pay, get check faster and can pay and leave fasterWonderful! used for example in Massachussettes

Source: Textually 18 Jan 2011


Smartphone Time UsedA survey by Zokem of 10,000 smartphone users in USA and Europe found that the time used per month on different activities was:671 minutes (29%) on messaging667 minutes (29%) on apps531 minutes (23%) on voice calls422 minutes (18%) on the mobile webThe use of pre-installed apps was far greater than installed apps (only 20% of all time used on apps) Source: GSM Association 13 February 2011



The 10 Dollar iPhone?Ah, the relentless pace of Moore's Law... Take any 'superphone' of today: iPhone 4, Nokia N8, Samsung Galaxy, Blackberry Bold, or whatever is your favoriteSummer 2010: unsubisidised price: US $600Winter 2011, same phone $300Summer 2013: $150; winter 2014: $75 summer of 2016: $38; winter 2017: $19By summer 2019 cost of superphone $10By 2020 even cheapest 'Africa phone' will have 3G, WiFi, touch screen, 8mp camera, flash and cost US $10 to sell profitably

Projection: TomiAhonen Consulting July 2010


Maturity, Expansion, Evolution?

Source: Tomi Ahonen book The Insider's Guide to Mobile 2011

1 - Communicate (1979) = $1.0T (services + hardware)2 - Consume / Media (1998) = $120B3 - Charging / Payments (1999) = ? $5B ?4 - Commercials / Ads (2000) = $8.8B5 - Create / Cameraphone (2001) = $100B (hardware)6 - Community (2003) = $10B7 - Cool / Fashion (2006)8 - (Remote) Control / Robots (2007)9 - Context / Beyond Reality (2008)10 - Cyber / Now Plants (2009)11 - Career / Employment (2010)


Does it Matter?


How Big is it?


4.2 B people have toothbrushWorld at end of 2010:5.2 Billion total mobile phone subscriptions4.2 Billion active users of SMS text messaging2.1 Billion use MMS1.6 Billion use mobile phones to browse internet content (out of 2B internet users of any type) MMA Forum Asia said 4.2 B people have a tootbrush

Sources: ITU, ABI Research, TomiAhonen Almanac, MMA Forum 2010


How Addicted Are We?


Compulsive? Every 6.5 MinutesNokia reported at MindTrek 2010 that the world average is already 150 times per day That means once every 6 and half minutes of every waking hour of every day across the planet.. Even in Africa it is already 82 times per day as Young and Rubicam said in its Mobile Mania Report

Sources: Young & Rubicam Mobile Mania Report April 2010, Nokia presentation MindTrek Tampere Finland Oct 2010


How Important is it?


Why Run Into Burning Home?"Photographs used to be the item people would run into a burning building to go retrieve. Today a mobile phone has replaced that."

- Jeffrey Hayzlett, CMO Kodak, 2010



Gadget CannibalizationJacobs Media and Arbitron study of smartphone users finds they're spending less time with:

Digital cameras GPS units Laptop/desktop computersVideo game systems Camcorders iPods and car radios

source Jacobs Media and Arbitron Sept 27, 2010



..of Mobile Users Are 10%


Young and Rubicam offers four good guidelines to think about designing mobile services and apps:10% of all mobile phone users, when consuming premium content or apps, are in watching TV at the same time10% are in the dark10% are nearly asleep10% are drunk

Source: Young & Rubicam Mobile Mania, Feb 2010



10% Ok SMS during SexAstonishing finding from UK survey of youth10% of youth think its ok to send SMS text messages while having sex, according to Retrovo research49% say its ok to send messages while eating

Source: Mashable 8 May 2010


So Our Industry Evolution?


2nd Battle for Convergence

Watch

Internet

ComputersBanking

Gaming

Music

Broadcast

Print

Credit

Mobile

Mapping

Telecoms80%

50%

40%

35%

25%

60%

The aggregate value of all these industries in 2009: 5 Trillion dollars Theory by Tomi T Ahonen 2002-

2010

Advertising

Camera

90%



Watch

Internet

ComputersBanking

Gaming

Music

Broadcast

Print

Credit

Mobile

Mapping

Telecoms


2010

Advertising

Camera


Canada - The Hockey News MobileThe Canadian weekly print newsmagazine had been struggling like most print titles with declining sales. In 2009 The Hockey News launched its mobile version, developed by Toronto based Polar MobileIt created new sales to new younger customers with 300,000 mobile usersPrint edition reversed the trend, and actually grew print sales by 5%Hockey News mobile edition was totally revised as an improved mobile application four times in its first year

Source: Polar Mobile Sept 2009Pearls: Real Mobile Servicescollected by Tomi T Ahonen



Watch

Internet

ComputersBanking

Gaming

Music

Broadcast

Print

Credit

Mobile

Mapping

Telecoms


2010

Advertising

Camera


Pretty Little Liars... m-SecretsABC's TV show aimed at young women, called Pretty Little Liars has run a mobile engagement campaignGirls asked to send the word 'Secrets' to a phone number, via SMS. They would then receive secret messages from a character known as "A" and also a preview MMS video clip of the upcoming episode12% of core teen audience joined. 4X more than expectated100K viewers. 550K messages. 2.2M page views. ABC monetized campaign selling ads to Microsoft

Source: Mogreet, November 2010 Pearls: Real Mobile Servicescollected by Tomi T Ahonen



Watch

Internet

ComputersBanking

Gaming

Music

Broadcast

Print

Credit

Mobile

Mapping

Telecoms


2010

Advertising

Camera


m-Banking 58% of Kenya Banking


M-Pesa by Safaricom is now 3 years old. Rival Zain's Zap is also widely used in KenyaIn Kenya (pop 38 M) only 7.6M people have a 'real' bank account. But 10M people have transferred money using a mobile phone. 58% is now mobileCentral Bank of Kenya says daily transaction value is 1B Kenya Shillings ($10M) ie average transfer $29Already 25% of Kenya GDP transits a mobile phone

Sources: Reuters 2009, AllAfrica.com 2010, VoA 2010, Safari-com 2010, Mi-Pay 2010



Watch

Internet

ComputersBanking

Gaming

Music

Broadcast

Print

Credit

Mobile

Mapping

Telecoms80%

50%

40%

35%

25%

60%

Theory by Tomi T Ahonen 2002-2010

Advertising

Camera

90%

2030: Mobile 5 Trillion Dollars

Mobile is the biggest economic opportunity of your career. And while today most money is in SMS and MMS - the future belongs to the mobile web and smartphone apps. And smartphone apps. Even if the money today is 'tight'..


Making it Magical

Delight and Astonish Your Audiences


And the latest gadgetmania continues in JapanMediaSeek developed called Kamera Jiten (camera dictionary) allows cam- phone used as an instant translatorOCR application (Optical Character Recognition) converts written pages of English into data. Then translator utility converts page into JapaneseAnd displays on your phone screenNow copied like Word Lens appSource: Tomi Ahonen book Mobile as 7th ofthe Mass Media 2008

Cameraphone OCR Translator




Experience The Past with ARAugmented Reality (AR) continues to be hot. A good example is to witness something that doesn't exist anymoreLayar showed examples of the AR view of Berlin Wall (see it from either side!) or see World Trade Center

Source: Layar Presentation at XML ConferenceMalmo Sweden 21 Jan 2011


VesseltrackerGerman company Vesseltracker offers augmented reality view of ships and boats in harbor, to let mobile phone be used as a radar replacement. Uses Layar for AR overlay, and collects harbormaster's radar data for ship positions and directions of movementSource: Layar 2010


My Art Space.. Kids to MuseumsThree UK museums set up 'My Art Space' to make school children visits to museums more interestingKids tasked to take pictures, create blogs, rate items and discuss, all via mobile phones. Loaners provided3,000 kids from 100 schools participatedThe kids loved it so much, they spent 4.5x longer on average in the museums (90 minutes vs 20 minutes)

source: mLearnCon, San Diego USA, 15 June, 2010



Who Wants My Latest Book?

web: tomiahonen.com or Twitter @tomiahonen

Available Now Free on Lulu.com: 350 pages


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Tomi T Ahonen, Author & ConsultantCompetitiveness, Business Case, Marketing, and Profitability

Provides workshops, training and consulting in how to make money with mobile adn converged services. The world's most prolific new mobile service evangelist, has introduced over 1,000 new service concepts at public conferences; he is quoted in 60 books by his peersQuoted in over 300 press stories in a dozen languages; keynotes at over 200 major conferences on 6 continents; his daily blog is syndicated on CNBC, NY Times, etcLectures at Oxford University on 3G and ConvergenceAvailable as a motivational speaker in telecoms marketing, sales, product development and innovation.Read his books "Digital Korea", "Communities Dominate Brands", “m-Profits", "3G Marketing","Services for UMTS” website: www.tomiahonen.come-mail: [email protected]: www.7thMassMedia.comtwitter: @tomiahonenTomi's new book "Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media"

Earlier Tomi Ahonen has set up & run Nokia’s 3G Business Consultancy. Previously he worked for 3 operators where he created the world’s first fixed-mobile service bundle and set a world record for taking market share from the incumbent

"Service creation and marketing will be key to 3G," Ahonen said. Total Telecom 12 October 2000


Tomi Ahonen eBooks

Pearls Vol 2: Mobile Social Networking Foreword by Mark Curtis, CEO of Flirtomatic, 171 pages, eBook format only, April 2009 - Cost only 9.99 EuroTomi's second volume of "Pearls", has 50 case studies of real world services around topics of mobile social networking and digital communities covering all biggest stories including Mixi, Mobage, Flirtomatic, Itsmy, Qik, Twitter, Cyworld, Habbo, Mogi, Tohato, MTV, i-Report etc.

Pearls Vol 1: Mobile AdvertisingForeword by Russell Buckley, SVP Admob, Chairman Mobile Marketing Association171 pages, eBook format only, January 2009 - Cost only 9.99 EuroLaunching an eBook series of Tomi's "Pearls", this first volume has 50 case studies of real world services around topics of mobile advertising and marketing from 19 countries including location-based, coupons, viral, advergaming etc

eBooks only via tomiahonen.com


Tomi Ahonen eBooks

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2011188 pages, eBook format only, February 2011 - Cost only 9.99 EuroComprehensive industry review and almanac with 92 tables, charts and diagrams, covering all major aspects of the mobile telecoms industry from handsets to services, from customers to networks, from SMS text messaging to content from mobile internet to mobile advertising.


"Whenever I need a stat, Tomi seems to have it, so I'd highly recommend this." - Russell Buckley, MD Admob Europe, Chairman Mobile Marketing Association"Speaking of statistics, Tomi Ahonen has put together the Tomi Ahonen Almanacas an eBook for mobile nuts. In it, you can quickly find mobile penetration of say, Thailand, or that 51% of the Earth's population has at least one cellphone, and one in 8 mobile walks around with 2 phones in their pockets!"- Ricky "The Guru" Cadden at Symbian Guru"Tomi Ahonen is the king of mobile statistics and knows more about the mobile space than any one I know"- Paul Poutanen founder and President of Mob4hire"If you're interested in mobile statistics, you really need to pick up a copy of Tomi Ahonen's Almanac. The Almanac is full of hard to find information."- WAP Review

2009 Almanac has been translated into Spanish!


Tomi Ahonen eBooks

Tomi Ahonen Phone Book 2010198 pages, eBook format only, January 2011 - Cost only 9.99 Euro

Brand new statistical volume for January 2011.

Comprehensive review and almanac of handset side of mobile industry with 98 tables, charts and diagrams, with all market shares, average sales prices, features, operating systems etc for smartphones, dumbphones and major brands in handsets.

It is the companion piece to highly popular TomiAhonen Almanac.



Tomi Ahonen six hardcover books Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media, 2008explains the media opportunities in mobile from music and gaming to TV and social networking and even internet and adertising. 322 pages. Digital Korea, 2007 with Jim O'Reillyis case study in digital convergence from the mostadvanced information society of South Korea.covers internet, TV, mobile, ecash, egoverment, robotics, telematics, virtual reality etc 282 pages.Communities Dominate Brands, 2005with Alan Moorefirst business book on social networking 280 pages. 3G Marketing, 2004, with Timo Kasper & Sara Melkko is marketing handbook for mobile operatorsM-Profits 2002Still only complete business book for mobile, 360 pServices for UMTS, 2002, with Joe Barrett was firstservices and applications book for 3G, 373 pages

all six hardcover books are available at Amazon


Selected TomiAhonen WorkshopsChanging Customer Needs in Mobile Most requested workshop currently, includes “steps” to addiction, “split” personalities, time to change..Mobile as 7th Mass Media Tomi's latest workshop discussing media convergence and unique aspects of mobile. Also adopted for Oxford Univ.Social Networking / Mobile Digital Communities based on his book Communities Dominate Brands, may be run with SMLXL. Adopted for Oxford U.New Mobile Service Creation From ideas to money-making, for mobile and fixed, for operators, vendors, content partners etc, includes 6 M’s and Early 8Business of Mobile Telecoms (2G, 2.5G, 3G) Adopted for Oxford U3G TV covering video and TV convergence with mobile. Adopted for Oxford UMobile Marketing and Advertising featuring "Engagement Marketing" Segmentation and Customer Understanding may be run with Xtract Launch Marketing for 2.5G and 3G also adopted for Oxford UniversityMVNO, Revenue Sharing & Partnerships can include building a modelForecasting and Business Modelling in Telecoms Popular workshopCompetitiveness in Telecoms Workshop form or competition simulation: Workshops are very cost-effective ! Write [email protected] for more.


Tomi Thought Pieces & White PapersTomiAhonen Thoughts Mobile Messaging, February 2010TomiAhonen Thoughts Mobile in Developing World, October 2009TomiAhonen Thoughts Evolution of Mobile Phone, June 2009TomiAhonen Thoughts Mobile Social Networking, April 2009TomiAhonen Thoughts Mobile Internet, February 2009TomiAhonen Thoughts Mobile Industry Size 2009, January 2009TomiAhonen Thoughts Mobile 7th Mass Media, September 2008TomiAhonen Thoughts Mobile Customers, August 2008TomiAhonen Thoughts Mobile Advertising, April 2008TomiAhonen Thoughts Mobile TV, December 2007TomiAhonen Thougths on MVNOs, June 2006SMLXL White Paper 7th Mass Media, June 2007*SMLXL White Paper Pop Idol, June 2006** Co-authored Tomi Ahonen with Alan Moore CEO of SMLXLWrite to [email protected] for your free copy of any of the above


Recommended Books Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media, Tomi T Ahonen, 2008Communities Dominate Brands Ahonen & Moore, 2005Mobile Advertising, Sharma, Herzog & Melfi, 2008Digital Korea, Ahonen & O'Reilly, 2007Mobile Marketing Handbook, Kim Dushinski, 2009Mobile Internet for Dummies, O'Farrell, Levine, Algroy, Pearce & Appelquist, 2008Wireless Broadband, Fotheringham & Sharma, 2008Mobile Web 2.0, Jaokar & Fish, 2006Distraction, Mark Curtis, 2005M-Profits, Tomi T Ahonen, 2002Next Generation Wireless Apps, Paul Golding, 20043G Marketing, Ahonen, Kasper & Melkko, 2004Mobile Strategy, Tom Weiss, 2006...And of course The Dilbert Future by Scott Adams..

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Evolving Mobile Industry - - Get a Free Blog Here