Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration ... · Philippines 13,158 8,185 10,119 11,011 13,303 17,718 23,724 14% Annual Growth Rate 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

1Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef

Session 141: Social Insurance Projections – Migration 2Michel Montambeault

Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration

for Canada


Presentation• Recent Statistics on Canadian Immigration

• Recent Statistics on Net Migration in Canada

• Projections (OCA, Statistics Canada and RRQ)

• International Comparison


Part 1: Recent Statistics on

Canadian Immigration


Canadian Immigration (1953-2008)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008Year

Number of Canadian Immigrants

* Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview - 2008.


Canadian Immigration by Category (1984-2008)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Family class Economic immigrants Refugees Other immigrants

Number of Canadian Immigrants

* Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview - 2008.


Canadian Immigration by Source Region (1996-2008)

100%100%100%100%100%100%100%All

4%4%3%2%3%3%3%United States

16%15%18%17%19%22%18%Europe

48%50%49%52%53%48%55%Asia and Pacific

11%10%9%9%7%8%8%Americas (excl. U.S.)

21%21%21%20%18%19%16%Africa and the Middle East

2008200620042002200019981996Source Region

* Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview – 2008.


Canadian Immigrants Top 5 Source Countries (1996-2008)

-2%29,33633,07936,42933,30736,75019,79017,533China

-3%24,54930,75425,57328,83826,12315,37621,291India

12%9,2436,5426,0624,7244,6493,8995,593United Kingdom

13%11,21610,9437,5075,2945,8284,7765,850United States

14%23,72417,71813,30311,01110,1198,18513,158Philippines

Annual Growth

Rate 2002-20082008200620042002200019981996

Source Country



Distribution of Canadian Immigrants by Landing Region (1996-2008)

3%18%18%19%16%14%15%13%Québec

4%18%17%16%15%17%21%23%British Columbia

9%10%8%7%7%6%6%6%Alberta

17%6%5%4%3%3%3%3%Prairies

-3%45%50%53%58%59%53%53%Ontario

17%3%2%1%1%1%2%2%Atlantic Provinces

AnnualGrowth Rate

2002-20082008200620042002200019981996Landing Region



Proportion of Canadian Immigrants with a University Degree (1996-2008)

45%40%42%40%37%30%24%Females

45%43%46%46%44%35%30%Both Sexes

46%45%49%52%51%41%35%Males2008200620042002200019981996Gender



Part 2: Recent Statistics on

Net Migration for Canada


Historical Migration Components - Canada(1973-2008)

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Year

ImmigrationEmigrationNet Migration

Percentage of Population

* Source: Statistics Canada Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories - 2009.


Average Age of Immigrants, Emigrants and Returning Canadians - 1971 and 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1971 2008 1971 2008

Males FemalesImmigrants Emigrants Returning Canadians

* Source: Statistics Canada: Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories – 2009.


Canadian Interprovincial Migration by Region(1973-2008)

Interprovincial Migration



Historical Migration Components - Québec(1973-2008)

Percentage of Population



Part 3: Projections (OCA,

Statistics Canada and RRQ)


Comparison of Best-Estimate Assumptions - Canada(2010 and 2030)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

2010 2030 2010 2030

% of Population # of Net Migration (000's)

0

60

120

180

240

300

OCA StatCan


Comparison of Best-Estimate Assumptions - Québec (2010 and 2030)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

2010 2030 2010 2030

% of Population # of Net Migration (000's)

0

10

20

30

40

OCA StatCan RRQ


Projected Annual Growth of the Canadian Population (Statistic Canada – Medium Scenario)

International Net Migration

Natural Increase

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

(Thousands)

62%

92%


Projected Annual Growth of the Canadian Population (OCA – 23rd CPP Actuarial Report – Best-Estimate)

International Net Migration

Natural Increase

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

(Thousands)

68%

100%


Stochastic scenarios within a 95% confidence interval produce minimum contribution rates between 9.70% and 9.92%

Evolution of Asset/Expenditure Ratio with a 9.9% contribution rate

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 20773.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

High-Cost: 0.48% of the population (2020+) Best Estimate: 0.54% of the population (2020+) Low-Cost: 0.59% of the population (2020+)


Part 4: International Comparison


International Comparison of Projected Levels of Net Migration – 2010-2040

Note: This graph was prepared by La Régie des Rentes du Québec and was presented at the 16th International Conference of Social Security Actuaries and Statisticians in Ottawa, Canada in September 2009.

0,00%

0,20%

0,40%

0,60%

0,80%

1,00%

2007 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

Germany

Canada (outside Québec)

United States

Finland

France

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Norway

Portugal

Québec

Switzerland


Thank YouSession 141: Social Insurance Projections – Migration 2

Michel Montambeault

Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration

for Canada

Documents

Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration ... · Philippines 13,158 8,185 10,119 11,011 13,303 17,718 23,724 14% Annual Growth Rate 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008