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Evolution of Census Statistics on Enterprises in Italy 1996-2006: from the Traditional Census to a Register of Local Units
Monica Consalvi, Luigi Costanzo, Danila FilipponiISTAT, Division for Administrative Archives, Data and Statistical Registers
IAOS Conference 2008 – “Reshaping Official Statistics”Session 9: Use of Administrative Data in CensusShanghai, October 14-16, 2008
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
20081. The starting point
EU Requirements
EEC No 2186/93 of 22 July 1993 on Community coordination in drawing up business registers for statistical purposes
Evolution of the Economic Structure
Problems of previous Censuses: survey technique Under-coverage
A.S.I.A. Project
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 Archivio (Register)
Statistico (Statistical)
Imprese (Enterprises)
Attive (Active)
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008
EU Requirements
EEC No 2186/93 of 22 July 1993 on Community coordination in drawing up business registers for statistical purposes
Evolution of the Economic Structure
Problems of previous Censuses: survey technique Under-coverage
A.S.I.A. ProjectStatistical Register of Active Enterprises
Objectives:
To reduce costs To reduce statistical burden To improve timeliness
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1. The starting point
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 2. The experimental phase of the BR
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Definition of a metadata framework;
Study of the main available administrative archives (definition of units and characters, classifications used, coverage, maintenance and updating procedures);
Development of a “metadata translator”, i.e. a set of rules to convert the administrative data into statistical information, by identifying the statistically-relevant units among the legally-relevant ones;
Set up of a robust methodology to estimate/validate the characters of the identified statistical units.
First release of the Business Register A.S.I.A. (reference year = 1996)
The BR was validated through a field survey, with a special Intermediate Census.
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 3. The 1996 Intermediate Census
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Double aim:
To supply territorial information on the economic structure
General check of the information about the active units recorded in the BR
Comparison with the traditional Census:
A higher coverage rate (about 95%), thanks to the use of administrative sources;
Lesser costs and lesser burden for the respondents, thanks to the innovation of the survey technique (the units surveyed were only a 15% of the entire universe, and they had to answer less questions);
A shortening of the data processing and, then, a better timeliness in the data dissemination (one year)
New survey technique:
Personalised questionnaires with pre-printed information drawn from the BR
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 4. The 1996 Intermediate Census
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
A coverage error:
over-coverage, generally due to errors in coding the economic activity (especially for self-employers and enterprises without employees, as they are not covered by all the available sources;
under-coverage of some economic sectors, such as construction, transportation and trading intermediation.
But, in terms of quality of the characters:
high concordance between the characters estimated in the Register and those resulting from the survey
Evaluation of the first release of the Business Register through the Intermediate Census
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 5. The main features of the Business Register A.S.I.A.
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
A.S.I.A. records all the active enterprises of industry and services and their structural characters by integrating information coming from both sources
Statistical sourcesowned by Istat
Administrativesourcesmanagedby publicagenciesor private companies
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 6. The main features of the Business Register A.S.I.A.
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
SOURCES (OWNER) PERSONS OBLIGED TO REGISTRATION
OBSERVED UNIT TYPE BR UNITS DERIVABLE
Enterprise Register of Enterprises (Chambers of Commerce)
Entrepreneurs (excluding self-
employers) Local unit
Local unit
Natural person VAT payers
Legal person Enterprise Tax Register (Ministry
of Economy and Finances) Legal persons exempt
from VAT Legal person Enterprise / Institution
Social Security Archives (INPS)
Employers Social security position Enterprise
Yellow Pages (SEAT) Telephone customers Business consumers Local unit
Synoptic table of units recorded in the major administrative sources of the BR
InputSources
Intra-archivelink
2
Standardization
1Conceptualintegration
PhysicalIntegration
Attributesanalysis Estimation
of attributes
5
Resultsevaluation
Inter-archives link
3
StatisticalUnits
ConceptualSteps
Phases
Analysis ofClusters
4
Products (DB Tables)
Results
Input sources Standard.
1
IncludedClusters
4
Activeenterprises
5
Asia.accoppiamenti.ap
Groups of records
2
Clusters of records
3
List of active enterprises from administrative source
Active enterprises year t
Asia.imprese
6Control
correction
Identification
Macro-phase 1
Macro-phase 3
Macro-phase 2
Conceptual steps
Products(DB tables)
ResultsPhases
The BR provides a list of enterprises but does not provide information regarding territorial distribution of local units/employees
To supply territorial information on the economic
structure
To create the basis for the development – within the BR – of a register of local units, able to produce territorial data in order to achieve the major objective of a complete replacement of the Census itself
A turning point in the reshaping process of Italian business statistics: The Industry and Services’ Census of 2001
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 8. The 2001 Census
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
For the first time, enumerators were supplied with lists of the enumeration units located in their districts, drawn by the BR.
Some days before the survey, all the listed units received by mail (except in minor municipalities) a personalised questionnaire to be withdrawn by enumerators, partly filled in with information drawn from the BR.
Enumerators were also provided with blank (non-personalised) questionnaires; to be used only for non-listed units or in substitution of personalised questionnaires got lost or damaged.
The “register-assisted” survey:
Some elements of a classic direct door-to-door survey combined with a survey by list
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 9. The 2001 Census
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
The synergy between the BR and the Census
made possible a micro-level coverage analysis, based on the comparison of the data collection with an image of the BR referring to the same date
This comparison confirmed – even with the innovation of the survey technique – the inadequacy of the traditional Census survey in covering the whole observation field (about 700 thousands units out of 4 million were missed by enumerators)
Despite of its poor effectiveness, the field survey remains so far the only reliable source of statistical information about the localization of economic activities.
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 10. The 2001 Census
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 11. The Register of Local Units
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
New EU RequirementsEC N.177/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 February 2008 establishing a common framework for business registers for statistical purposes and repealing EEC N.2186/93
The under-coverage error of the Census survey
A.S.I.A. Local Units
ASIA-UL provides every year (with a two-year delay) the information on local units, that before was available only from the Census, that was normally taken every ten years
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 12. The Survey on Local Units of large Enterprises (IULGI)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Just like the BR of enterprises, ASIA-UL is the result of the integration of administrative and statistical sources, in part already used for the construction of ASIA-Enterprises
The administrative archives available in Italy don’t provide reliable and complete information on local units, especially with regards to the territorial distribution of employees.
To fill this gap a new direct survey on local units of multi-location enterprises of large dimensions (IULGI) was necessary
In order to verify on the field the state of activity and the other characteristics of the local units.
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 13. The Survey on Local Units of large Enterprises (IULGI)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
IULGI observation field
>249 employees all enterprises
100 - 249 employees a panel that rotate every 2 years
50-99 employees a panel that rotate every 3 years
IULGI is a yearly survey:in three years it is possible to cover the entire field of enterprises with more then 50 employees
All innovations introduced in the IULGI survey have made possible the achievement of a very high response rates
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 14. The Register of Local Units
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
L O C A L
U N I T S
ADMIN.SOURCES
IULGI
ESTIMATIONMODEL
(Large enterprises)
(Small / mediumenterprises)
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IAOS Conference
2008 15. The Register of Local Units – Estimation models
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
The activity status of the local unitsA generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used to model the probability that a local unit is active using administrative/statistical data as predictors, and taking into account the available longitudinal information;
The number of employees of the active local unitsIt is estimated applying a rank function to the available sources, and then solving an optimization problem with linear constraints to estimate the employees for the local units defined as active (to make the total number of employees for the local units of each enterprise consistent with the BR).
The economic activity codeWhen there are several possible codes, the choice of this attribute is based on a probabilistic procedure, which selects the most likely among the different values provided by administrative sources, making use of appropriate quality indicators, derived from the data themselves.
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
IN THE PAST
to define the statistical units
for the preparation and co-ordination of surveys and for grossing up survey results, by providing the frame necessary to prevent coverage errors in data collection
IAOS Conference
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
16. The role of the BR
THE NEW ROLE:
A coordinating role
cooperation among departments coherence
“core” of a coherent system of economic statistics (physical and logical connector centre)
A dissemination tool
the BR is a “live entity”, which is constantly revised and updated
Necessity of a balance between two opposite needs:
Consistency continuity/stability in time series (SBS/STS)
Accuracy/transparency in statistical information (BR) (Italian choice)
Future issue a possible reconstruction of consistent time series and the estimation of the optimum time lag after which the BR data can be considered stable
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
An overview of the evolution process
IAOS Conference
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006- - -
2011
17. CONCLUSIONS
Traditional enumeration of economic activities
An integrated system of statistical production
The 2011 Census will be replaced by a (much less expensive) sample survey to assess
the quality of the BR
The Business register as a continuous Census:
It provides every year statistical information on the territorial distribution of economic activities
and the employment, so far available throughthe Census every decade
Shanghai, October, 14-16,
2008
Thanks foryour attention!
IAOS Conference
2008