Evidencefor

Effective

Food SecurityDecision

s

John ScicchitanoUSAID/Food For Peace

FEWS NET Program Manager

Horn of Africa VegetationFeb 2012 vs. Feb 2011

Geography of food insecurity

2

Food Security ConditionsSomalia

March 2012

Magnitude of food insecurity

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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

Ethiopia 2012 Beneficiary Estimates1,2

REGION LOW MID HIGH

AFAR 100,000 120,000 140,000

AMHARA 660,000 780,000 890,000

OROMIA 1,860,000 2,190,000 2,520,000

SNNPR 410,000 490,000 560,000

SOMALI 1,060,000 1,250,000 1,430,000

TIGRAY 360,000 420,000 480,000

OTHER REGIONS(Dire Dawa, Harari, Benishangul

Gumuz, Gambella)90,000 100,000 130,000

TOTAL 4,540,000 5,350,000 6,150,0

00 1 6-month equivalent2 Reflects local population needs only. Does not include refugee needs.

Severity of food insecurity

4

Food Security ConditionsOct-Dec 2011

5

Integrated Food Security Phase

Classification (IPC)

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 PHASE SUMMARY DESCRIPTION (AREA)

PHASE 1Minimal

Households are able to meet basic food needs and afford essential non-food expenditure without a reliance on coping strategies or humanitarian assistance.

PHASE 2Stressed

For at least 1 in 5 households, food consumption is reduced but minimally adequate without having to engage in unsustainable coping strategies. However, these households are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures.

PHASE 3Crisis

At least 1 in 5 households face significant food consumption gaps with high or above usual acute malnutrition, or is marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with unsustainable coping strategies such as liquidating livelihood assets.

PHASE 4Emergency

At least 1 in 5 households face extreme food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition or excess mortality, or faces extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption gaps.

PHASE 5Famine

At least 1 in 5 households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs. Starvation, death, and destitution are evident.

Timing of food insecurity

6

Seasonal ContextSomalia

7

Inter-Agency Agreement

Inter-Agency Agreement

Contracts Inter-Agency Agreement

Inter-Agency Agreement

27 year-old activity

8

Kimetrica

National, Regional,

Internationalinstitutions

24 FEWS NET offices

18 Africa - National3 Africa - Regional1 Haiti1 Guatemala1 Afghanistan

Non-presence coverage of others

Nationality of FEWS Field Representatives American = 0 African = 24 Guatemalan = 1 Afghani = 1 Haitian = 1 9

10

Monitoring prices Understanding how markets function

11

Structure and Conduct of Markets

Satellite Products

Crop water requirements

satisfaction index (WRSI)

Multiple-source daily rainfall

estimation (RFE)

Vegetation Indices (NDVI)

www.fews.net

www.fews.net

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14

FEWS analyzes historical patterns of change in weather to inform today’s adaptation planning.

15www.populationexplorer.com

Timor l’Este

1

2

34

A

B

A, B, C = Existing AgMet monitoring focus

1-4 = possible AgMet monitoring windows

C

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New Agro-Meteorological Monitoring Windows

Excellent Oct-Dec 2011 rains

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Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

Horn of Africa - context

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Mar-May 12 rainfall forecasts

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Source: FEWS NET/NOAA/USGS

Average March-May rainfall as a percentage of average annual rainfall

Importance of Mar-May rains

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Evolution of Mar-May rains

Precipitation Anomaly:1 Feb – 7 May

Current Conditions

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Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia

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