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Evaluation of Development Plans Towards Sustainable Urban Transportation:
A Case Study of Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR)
CODATU XV Conference Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
22nd-25th October 2012
K V Krishna Rao, Professor Transportation Systems Engineering
Department of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (IITB)
INDIA
Outline
• Urbanization in India
• Need for the study
• Objectives of the study
• Study area & Data set
• Methodology
• Travel Demand Modeling
• Evaluation of Development Scenarios
– Usual Land Use Scenario
– Increasing FSI along proposed Metro corridor
• Conclusion
October 31, 2012 2
Urbanization in India
• India is one of the fastest urbanizing country in the world at the moment
• By 2030, about 41% of India's population is expected to reside in urban
areas. (Source: UN State of the World Population report in 2007)
Indian Cities and their Size
Need for the Study
• Rapid growth in population and employment resulting in drastic increase
in number of trips
• Rapid growth of private vehicles and associated trips resulting in
unsustainable transportation
• Introduction of shared autorickshaws and increase in public transport
fares leading to unsustainable growth
• A very low modal share of public transport (13%) and hence an urgent
need to augment the current transportation system with modern high
capacity mass transit systems like metro, BRTS, Light rail, etc.
October 31, 2012 5
Objectives of the Study
• To understand the basic aspects of sustainable planning and transportation
• Development of a complete GIS based transportation planning database for PMR
– Highway network development
– Transit network with all the existing and proposed PT routes
• Implementation of the travel demand model in a state of the art transportation planning software CUBE Voyager platform
• Evaluation of Development scenarios as proposed by Pune Municipal Corporation for the horizon years 2021 and 2031
October 31, 2012 6
Study Area • Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR)
Area : 444 km2
Pop : 5.6 Million (2011)
October 31, 2012 7
Delineation
• Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR):
• Traffic Analysis Zones – 267 internal zones, 13 external zones
o PMC - 144 zones o PCMC - 105 zones o Hinjewadi - 16 zones o Pune and Khadki cantonments
• Screen Lines o along Mula – Mutha river o along the existing Railway line
• Planning Period o base year : 2008 o Forecasting years 2021 & 2031
October 31, 2012 8
(Source: Pune Metro Project, 2009)
Hinjewadi (16 Zones)
PMC (144 Zones)
PCMC (105 Zones)
Delineation
October 31, 2012 9
(Source: Pune Metro Project, 2009)
Outer Cordon Stations
Screen Line 1 (Along Mula-Mutha River)
Screen Line 2 (Along Existing Railway Line)
Screen Lines and Outer Cordon Stations
October 31, 2012 10
Growth of Vehicles in Pune
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Year
No
. o
f V
eh
icle
s (m
illi
on
)
TwoWheeler
Car/ Jeep
Rickshaw
CommercialVehicles
Bus
Others
Total
Data Set
As per 2007 data: TW: 370 per 1000 people Cars: 71 per 1000 people
• Population
Data Set
October 31, 2012 12
0,77 1,08
1,59
2,24
3,57
5,6
7,83
9,23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
ns)
Year
• Employment
Data Set
Region Employment (Million)
2008 2021 2031
PMC 1.11 1.78 2.36
PCMC 0.54 1.26 1.89
Pune Cantonment 0.04 0.05 0.05
Khadki Cantonment 0.04 0.05 0.05
Hinjewadi 0.25 0.39 0.5
Total 1.98 3.52 4.85
October 31, 2012 13
• Traffic volume counts
• Occupancy counts
• O-D surveys
• Home interview survey
• Speed and delay survey
• Stated preference survey
Data Set
October 31, 2012 14
Modal Share in Pune City
October 31, 2012 15
Walk 24%
Bicycle 9%
PT 13% IPT
8%
TW 39%
Car 7%
Methodology
GIS based Transport network development with all necessary attributes
Implementation of Travel Demand Model in
CUBE Voyager platform
Evaluation of Development Scenarios for the horizon years 2021 and 2031
1. Usual Land Use Scenario
2. Increasing FSI along Metro Corridor
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Modal Split
Trip Assignment
Highway network
Transit network with all existing and proposed PT routes
October 31, 2012 16
Highway Network
– length - 3596 km
– 20,594 links
October 31, 2012 17
PT Route Coding
October 31, 2012 18
• PMPML (Pune Mahanagar Parivahan Mahamandal Limited) Bus routes
• Intermediate Public Transport-IPT (Auto) routes
• Suburban rail routes
• BRTS (Bus Rapid Transit System) routes
• Shared liner routes (6 passenger autorickshaws)
• Out station bus routes
• Proposed Metro routes
• Proposed Mono-rail routes
The coded Public Transport routes consist of:
PT Route Coding
October 31, 2012 19
PT Routes Network
October 31, 2012 20
Transport Network Systems for Horizon Years
Year Transport Network Systems
2008
Bus routes (363 routes)
Suburban rail route
BRT route (Katraj-Swargate-Hadapsar)
2021 &
2031
Bus routes
Suburban rail route
Proposed BRT routes
Proposed Monorail route
Proposed Metro routes
October 31, 2012 21
Horizon Year Network
Proposed BRTS
Proposed Monorail
Proposed Metro
October 31, 2012 22
Travel Demand Modeling
October 31, 2012 23
• Speed flow equation:
Speed at Volume V = Free flow speed Vf (1 – alpa (v/c)^beta)
Four Stage Model Parameters
Category Trip Generation Trip Distribution
Trip Productions Trip Attractions α β
Car Owning Group 0.58 x POP_hig 1.45 x EMP+0.12 x STEN -2.09557 -0.0001819
Two Wheeler Owning Group 0.58 x POP_mig 1.28 x EMP+0.1 x STEN -1.07986 -0.0236587
No Vehicle Group 0.58 x POP_lig 1.18 x EMP -0.897392 -0.0255572
Category Modal Split
Equation
Car Owning Group a) Ucar = -0.0004147*TT-0.001059*TC+0.5425
b) U2W = -0.0004147*TT-0.001059*TC+0.3125
c) UPT = -0.0004147*TT-0.001059*TC-0.03141*WT
Two Wheeler
Owning group
a) U2W = -0.003475*TT-0.07817*TC+1.312
b) UPT = -0.003475*TT-0.07817*TC-0.00687*WT
Trip Assignment
MODE VOT
(Rs/Hr)
VOC
(Rs/ Km)
PT 32 -
Two Wheeler 34 2
Car 107 5
October 31, 2012 24
Usual Land Use Scenario (Scenario 1):
With the prevailing land use pattern (base year is taken as 2008) traffic is forecasted for the horizon years 2021 and 2031 with different transportation network systems. The different transportation systems considered for the horizon years in both the scenario1 and scenario 2 include metro, monorail and BRT corridors
Increasing Floor Space Index (FSI) along Metro corridor (Scenario 2):
Increasing the FSI to 4 along the Metro corridors (for 500m on both sides) for the years 2021 and 2031, the traffic is forecasted and compared with the usual land use scenario (Scenario 1).
Evaluation of Development Scenarios
October 31, 2012 25
Results
October 31, 2012 26
2008 2021 2031
% PT Share 32.2% 48.5% 49.5%
% PV Share 67.8% 51.5% 50.5%
Comparison of Percentage Share of Public and Private Transport
Usual Land Use Scenario (Scenario 1)
Results
October 31, 2012 27
2021 2031
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2
(Usual
Land Use)
(Increasing
FSI)
(Usual Land
Use)
(Increasing
FSI)
Average Trip Length in terms of travel time (in minutes)
No vehicle group 33.8 25.7 34.6 26.6
TW owning group 35.7 26.5 36.5 27.3
Car owning group 34.4 25.5 35.2 25.7
Comparison of Average Trip Lengths for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2
Results
October 31, 2012 28
Trip length frequency distribution graphs for different income groups (2021)
• Considering the accelerated growth in population and the potential of future growth of Pune Metropolitan Region, implementation of land use and transport policies is of paramount importance
• Considering the concept of sustainable urban transportation, implementing high capacity transit systems in a phased manner with appropriate last mile connections and appropriate transit oriented development schemes becomes the need of the hour
• A scenario based approach was used to evaluate the development plans considered for the future years with the help a travel demand model.
Conclusion
October 31, 2012 29
• In Scenario 1, the share of public transport has increased to nearly 50% for the horizon years.
• In Scenario 2:
• there is a reduction of 25% in the average trip length
• the boardings on Metro have increased.
• Increasing FSI along metro corridor will surely help rather than developing the city outwards.
• Transit oriented development, i.e., densification along with new public transportation infrastructure like metro can lead to a sustainable development.
Conclusion
October 31, 2012 30
Thank You
October 31, 2012 31