Delphi Technique
Delphi Technique Using expert opinion and collective experience
to unlock the secrets of the future.The keys to employing
qualitative forecasting are:Data as an historical series is not
available , or is not relevant to future needs.An unusual product
or a unique project is being contemplated.
Keys:-There are numerous variables which will affect the
project.
Keys:
The projects life is longer than the safe extrapolation of a
time series.Keys:Experts are available, and should debate the
issues.
Qualitative Forecasting: Data From Expert OpinionBy Survey-Data
can be gathered by phone or in writing.Data comes in three
categories: Highly valuable Absolutely essential Supporting
material.The survey group is known as the reference
population.Qualitative Forecasting: Data From Expert Opinion Jury
of executive opinion: senior managers draw upon their collective
wisdom to map out future events. These discussions are carried out
in open meeting, and may be subject to the drawbacks of group think
and personality dominance.Using groups-
Qualitative Forecasting: Data From Expert Opinion The Delphi
Method: drawing upon the groups expertise by getting individual
submissions, without the drawback of face to face meetings.8Using
groups-The Delphi Method is named after a famous Oracle who
prophesied in the ancient Greek city of Delphi. An Oracle (wise
person) interceded between men and gods.
Qualitative Forecasting: Data From Expert Opinion The Nominal
Group Technique is a face to face Delphi method, allowing group
discussion.9Using groups -
The Devils Advocate method poses sub-groups to question the
groups findings.The Dialectical Inquiry method poses sub-groups to
challenge the groups findings with alternative
scenarios.Qualitative Forecasting: Using Expert OpinionOutput from
the group techniques is sorted into scenarios.These scenarios are
further reviewed by the group.A final consensus of opinion forecast
is accepted by the group.
Qualitative Forecasting: SummaryQualitative forecasting uses
expert opinion, collected in a variety of ways.Qualitative
forecasting is used when historical data is not available, or when
the planning horizon is very long.Collected expert wisdom has to be
carefully managed.Research shows that both the Delphi Method, and
the Nominal Group technique, are reliable forecast methods.Thanks :
Home Assignment:
- To be Submitted within two days
Prepare a note on Risk Identification & Evaluation
Next Topic on Discussion - Risk Mitigation Risk MitigationA
systematic reduction in the extent of exposure to a risk and/or the
likelihood of its occurrence. Also called risk reduction.
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Chart5210925302287319437853372369839083725412945324487
SALESYearSalesSales by Year, With Automatic Twenty Year
Prediction
Sheet5EDITED SUMMARY OUTPUTREGRESSION OF SALES ON
YEARSRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.9215R Square0.8492Adjusted R
Square0.8324
