Evacuation Time Assessment forTransient and Permanent Population fromVarious Areas Within the Plume Exposure

. Pathway Emergency Planning Zone

Diablo Canyon Power Plant1990 Update

WA,Wilbur Smith Associates

February 3.993

, PDR A PDR93052 Cg 05000275OOOO'SOa2S

p

Evacuation Time Assessment forTransient and Permanent Population fromVarious Areas Within the Plume Exposure

Pathway Emergency Planning Zone

Diablo Canyon Power Plant1990 Update

W/QLWWNJSR%%%%%iNNLEVEN

Wilbur Smith Associates

February 1993

FORWARD

This update of the Evacuation Time Assessment for the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant

recognizes the population figures need periodic updating. The previous evacuation time

assessment was prepared in 1986 and reQected 1985 conditions within the BEPZ. This

evacuation time assessment update reflects 1990 census data.

The analysis made use of a computer simulation model to investigate three different

evacuation conditions: a normal weekday condition; a peak summer weekend day condition,

and a nighttime condition. In addition, the impact of adverse weather on a normal weekday

evacuation was simulated. For each condition, nine dif'ferent combinations of Protective

Action Zones were used to simulate"evacuation of various portions of the BEPZ. Time

required to complete an evacuation of the entire BEPZ is estimated to be 10 hours on a

normal weekday,'n fair weather, and 12 hours in adverse weather, 10.25 hours on a peak

weekend day, and 9.5 hours under nighttime conditions. Partial evacuations would require

less time.

CONTENTS

~Cha ter ~pa e

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Study Scope

1.2 Regional Location

. 1.3 Basic Emergency Planning Zone1.4 Protective Action Zones

1.5 Major Transportation Facilities

1.6 Emergency Response Plan

1

2

2

2

9

10

2 STUDY METHODOLOGY

2.1 Data Collection2.2 Evacuation Route Network Development2.3 Evacuation Time Assessment Simulation

11

11

15

3 GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS 17

3.1 Public Information and NotiQcation3.2 Evacuation Actions3.3 Traffic Controls

3.4 Number of Vehicles Evacuating3.5 Evacuation Route Conditions

17

17

18

19

19

4 ALTERNATIVEEVACUATIONSCENARIOS 20

4.1 Normal Weekday Evacuation4.2 Peak Summer Weekend Day Evacuation4.3 Nighttime Evacuation4.4 Adverse Weather

20

21

21

21

5 EVACUATIONDEMANDESTMATES 22

5.1 Persons Evacuating By Own Vehicle5.2 Population Requiring Evacuation Assistance

5.3 Summary of Special Transportation Assistance Needs

5.4 Diablo Canyon Power Plant Workers and Visitors

22

26

37

37

I

CONTENTS (Cont'd)

~Che ter ~Pa e

6 EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK 41

6.1 Recent and Planned Improvements to Major Road Network6.2 Evacuation Route Computer Network

6.3 Traffic Operation6A Travel Speeds

6.5 Roadway Conditions

41

41

42

42

42

7 EVACUATIONTIMEESTBAATES'67.1 Components of Evacuation Time

7.2 NotiQcation and Preparation Times For General Public

7.3 Site Area Emergency7.4 General Emergency7.5 Alternative Evacuation Conditions

7.6 Estimated Evacuation Times,

7.7 NRC Summaries

7.8 Bottleneck Locations

46

47

47

50

50

50

52

52

APPENDICES

Appendix A- Agency Contacts 66

Appendix B- Descriptions of Major Evacuation Routes,

Maps to Local Evacuation Routes 68

Appendix C- Schools and Hospitals in Protective Action Zones

Appendix D- Evacuation Time Assessment Program Methodology

82

90

I

TABULATIONS

Table ~Pa e

1 BEPZ Population and Dwelling Units, 1990 vs. 1985

2 Estimated Transient Population 1990

3 Estimated Evacuation Vehicles 1990

4 Total Evacuating Vehicles 26

5 Required Number of Bus Trips for AllEvacuation

Scenarios 27

6a Public School Enrollments 28

6b Private School'Enrollments 30

7 Persons in Institutions Needing Special Transportation

Assistance 35

8 Summary of Vehicle Requirements. for Special Transportation

Needs by Institution .36

9 Homebound Persons Requiring Special Transportation

10 Summary of Persons Needing Special Transportation Assistance

38

39

11 Estimate of Vehicle Trip Requirements for Special Transportation

Needs 40

12 Capacity of Major Evacuation Routes 45

13 Evacuation Time Estimates. by Scenario and Condition 51

14 Estimated Populations, Vehicle Demand and Evacuation Times by

Evacuation Area, Peak Summer Weekend Day, 1990 53

I'

ILLUSTRATIONS

~ ~Fi ure ~Pa e

1 Regional Location

2 Basic Emergency Planning Zone

3 Emergency Planning Zones

4 Evacuation Network Development Work Flow

5 Major Evacuation Routes"

6 Computer Network Emergency Evacuation Routes

7 Estimated Daytime Response

8 Estimated Nighttime Response

12

14

43

48

49

9 Evacuation Scenario Emergency Evacuation Routes

10 Bottleneck Locations - Normal Weekday Evacuation

55

11 Bottleneck Locations - Peak Summer Weekend Day Evacuation 65

ft

Chapter 1

IN'IRODUCTION

This report presents the results of an updated assessment of evacuation times within theBasic Emergency Planning Zone (BEPZ) surrounding the Diablo Canyon Power Plant in San

Luis Obispo County, California. The report was prepared by WBbur Smith Associates

(WSA) in response to a request by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) thatlicensees of nuclear power plants provide information regarding time estimates forevacuation of the resident and transient populations within the Emergency Planning Zone.

The evacuation time estimates are for use by those emergency response personnel charged

with recommending and deciding on protective actions in the event of nuclear power plantemergencies.

Aprevious evacuation time assessment was prepared by WSA in 1986 which reQected 1985

conditions within the BEPZ'. Recognizing that population Qgures need constant updating,PaciGc Gas & Electric Company (PG&E) engaged WSA at the end of 1991 to re-evaluate

the evacuation time estimates using 1990 census data.

1.1 Stud Sco e

This"evacuation time estimate study. provides..the information and uses the presentation,formats described in "Appendix 4: Evacuation Time.Estimates Within the Plume ExposurePathway Emergency Planning Zone, Revision 1" of NUTMEG-06542. The evacuation timestudy includes:

1. The identiQcation of resident and transient populations within the BEPZ in 1990,

based upon av'ailable information.

'Evacuation Times Assessment for Transient and Permanent Po ulation from VariousAreas Within the P]ume E osure Pathwa Emer en Plannin Zone Diablo Can on PowerPlant U date Februa 1986 prepared for the PG&E Company by Wilbur SmithAssociates.

Criteria forPre aration and Evaluation ofRadiolo 'cal Emer en Res onse Plans andPre aredness in Su ort of Nuclear Power Plants U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission,November, 1980 (Revision 1).

fl

2. Identification of existing institutions which require special evacuation assistance.

3. An evaluation of the evacuation routes relative to their trafGccarrying capacity

during an evacuation.

4. Estimation of evacuation time requirements for the resident and transient

populations'and special institutions under normal and adverse weather conditions.

1.2 Re 'onal Location

As shown in Figure 1, the Diablo Canyon Power Plant is located on the coastline ofSan Luis

Obispo County between the communities of Morro Bay and Pismo Beach. The Plant site

is roughly 10 miles west of the City of San Luis Obispo, California.

1.3 Basic Emer en Plannin Zone

The relationship of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant to nearby communities, major roadways,

and generalized topographic features in the BEPZ is illustrated in Figure 2. The power

plant is sited on a coastal shelf surrounded by the steep topography of the Irish Hills. The

Irish Hills separate the site from,the nearest communities some six to eight miles away.

These communities are Avila Beach to the southeast and Baywood Park-Los Osos to the

north.

Resident population in the area tends to be concentrated in the City ofSan Luis Obispo and

along the U.S. Route 101/California Route 1 corridor to the south through the "Five Cities"

area which includes Shell Beach, Pismo Beach, Grover Beach, Arroyo Grande, Oceano, and

Nipomo. Population in the BEPZ is also located westward from San Luis Obispo through

the Los Osos Valley area, in the Morro Bay vicinity, and northward along the coast to

'ayucos. To the north Cuesta Ridge, in the Los Padres National Forest, acts as a barrier

to development.

1.4 Protective Action Zones

0 I

Emergency planning zones have been established by the NRC, Federal Emergency

Management Agency (FEMA), the State of California OKce ofEmergency Services (OES),

and by the County of San Luis Obispo.

vr

MONTEREY COUNTY KINGS COUNTY~~ ~

eb

PASO ROSLKS

KERN COUNTY

SANTA MAROARITA

SAN

LUIS

49rr,'r. 's'ok~ pi:'~CA»":N:5:"'«"SX")'9"+"'~":sq~~zs:.:I? GROVER BBACH

«j%$,:~)",.':? PACIFIC OCEAN P„'"::i:„'::„',.'::;::.':.'":„":,'.'„,':.".":,:.::.,.::NIPOMO

101

ATASCAOEA0

68101

.j<Y>%:~P>~~>r'g:5v'?@PE::r're%':@>j<+ ":j:iF>$j.:?~.~'j..

1

SAN LUISOBISPO

""'"": DIABLOCANYON "."„""

'.i:".'::,:::.:POWER PLANT .:.:";:.)'..':,".".?'".? ALLA

22

ORAH08

OBISPO

COUNTY

SANTAt~ MARIA

SANTA BARBARACOUNTY

0 2e 8 810

I"= 10 MlleaScale hpprextmale

REGIONAL LOCATION

Figure 1

~'

The NRC/FEMA zones are based upon a 10-mile zone with 16 sectors subtending 22.5

degrees of arc and distance rings of 2, 5, and 10 miles. However, the County of San Luis

.Obispo and the California OES adopted a somewhat larger area called the Basic Emergency

Planning Zone (BEPZ). The BEPZ is divided into 12 irregularly shaped Protective ActionZones (PAZ) which reflect the coastline, the mountainous areas, and the population centers.

Beyond the BEPZ is a Public Education Zone. This zone receives information about theDiablo Canyon Power Plant on a semi-annual basis.

The BEPZ and the PAZs in this evacuation time assessment are depicted in Figure 3,

1.4.1 BEPZ Po ulation

A summary of current resident population and number of dwelling units by zone is given inTable 1, compared with 1985 Qgures. For the entire 12-zone BEPZ, 1990 population totalsestimated 130,828 persons, an increase of 8.6 percent over the 1985 total. The number ofdwelling units went up from 44,781 to 55,055 over the period, an increase of about 22.9

percent.

A comparison of 1990 and 1985 Qgures by zone reveals that growth was not uniform.throughout, the BEPZ. Within the two-mile ring,'no new dwelling units were recorded since

1985. Between two and six miles, some Qve new:dwellings were built. Approximately 2,500

new dweHings each were built in zones eight and 10 in areas of relatively rapid growth.Between 700 and 950 new homes were recorded in each of zones 3, 5 and 9, while slower

growth (approximately 500 or less) occurred in zones 4, 7, 11, and 12.

Actual transient population consists of visitors to the BEPZ area, such as tourists and

beachgoers, plus workers and students who live outside the BEPZ. The peak transient

population occurs within the BEPZ during summer weekends and holidays. During these

periods, considerable numbers of persons from outside the BEPZ visit the beach recreationareas. Also included in the transient population component are employees who workwithinthe BEPZ, but reside outside. A summary of estimated 1990 transient population byprotective action zone and evacuation condition is presented in Table 2. The estimatedBEPZ transient population on the peak summer weekend day in 1990 was 44,265.

Since 1990 transient population Qgures are not readily available from the 1990 Census data

(or any other local or regional agency) in a format which was useable in this study, it was

necessary for WSA to develop these estimates. Year 1990 transient population estimates

V

Table I.

BEPZ Population and Dwelling Units1990 vs. 1985

Residential Population Dwelling Units

Protective Action Zone 1985<t> 1990<2) Ratio (1990/1985) 1985<t> 1990<2> Ratio (1990/1985)

1 2-Mile

2 6-Mile

3 Avila/San Luis Bay/See Canyon/Squire Canyon

4 4

96 100 1.04

1,921 3,151 1.64

1.00

46 51

778 1415 1.95

4 Prefumo Canyon/Los Osos Valley 406 1,174 2.89 152 419 2.76

5 Baywood/Los Osos

6 City of Pismo Beach

7 indian Knob/Price Canyon

8 San LuIs Obispo Area 48,914 51,173 1.05

13,634 15,290 - 1.12

5/99 7,669 1.37

79 168 2.13

5,492 6,437 1,17

2,828 4/48 1.61

36 59 1.64

15,474 17,803 1.15

9 Morro Bay/Cayucos 15,185 12,949 0.85 7,032 7,979 1.13

10 Five Cities;Southern Portion

ll Orcutt Road/Lopez Drive/Route 227

12 Nipomo North of WillowRoad

27,400 31,848 1.16

2,832 2,615 0.92

4,424 4,687 1.06

950 994 1.05

1/42 2,053 1.33

10,448 13,194 1.26

BEPZ Total 120,494 130,828 1.09 44,781 . 55,055 1.23

Source: (1) From PG&E Land Department, September, 1985.

(2) From PG&E Land Department, September, 1991.

Note: BEPZ denotes Basic Emergency Planning Zone.

Table 2

Estimated Transient Population, 1990

., Evacuation Condition

Protective Action ZoneNormal

Weekday

Peak Summer

Weekend Nighttime

1 2-Mile

2 6-Mile

3 Avila/San Luis Bay/See Canyon/Squire Canyon

4 Prefumo Canyon/Los Osos VaHey

1,100

2,300

250

5,500, 450

5 Baywood/Los Osos

6 City of Pismo Beach

7 Indian Knob/Price Canyon

150

3,000

320

6,900

30

2,250

8 San Luis Obispo Area',635 2,070 ',7859 Morro Bay/Cayucos

10 Five Cities, Southern Portion

11 Orcutt Road/Lopez Drive/Route 227

12 Nipomo'North of WillowRoad

BEPZ Total

4,000

4,835

230

18,750

9,800

17,125

250

44,265

1,650

2,800

335

9,850

Source: Estimates developed by WilburSmith Assochtes based on California Department of Parks and Recreation 1990

Visitor/Attendance Reports and local Chamber of Commerce information.

are based on several sources of information including: the previously developed 1985

transient population Qgures; 1990 California Department of Parks and Recreation

Visitor/Attendance Report; local Chamber of Commerce published material; and local fieldinvestigations.

Based on our investigation, the beachgoers component of the transient population was foundto clearly represent a major portion of the total transients potentially present within theBEPZ on a normal weekday or peak summer weekend. Since California Department ofParks and Recreation visitor/attendance data does not distinguish between local and non-

local visitors, it was conservatively assumed that all beachgoers were part of the transient

population. In the 1990 transient estimates, beachgoers represent 61 percent and 82 percentof the Normal Weekday and Peak Summer Weekend condition transient populationestimates respectively. For the Nighttime condition, the transient population is estimated

to consist primarily of tourists/visitors staying overnight at area motels/hotels and RV parks.

In this case, transients at local lodging/RV parks represent approximately 61 percent of the

total transients, while beachgoers (campers) represent less than 20 percent.

1.5 Ma'or Trans ortation Facilities

The regional highway network comprises the primary transportation facilities in an

emergency evacuation. These are shown in Figure 2. Two major routes —U.S. Route 101

and California Route 1 —are primary elements of the roadway system. U.S. 101 is

constructed to freeway standards through most of the BEPZ, as a four-lane divided roadwaywith grade separation. Proceeding northward from San Luis Obispo, U.S. 101 climbs a steep

grade about Qve miles long to the Cuesta Pass. This segment, and some further to the

north, are constructed to expressway standards with some at-grade intersections.

California Route 1 north of San Luis Obispo, has been upgraded generally to four-lane

expressway design standards in the BEPZ, with freeway segments in the urban stretches

through Morro Bay and Cayucos. South of its south junction with U.S. 101 in Pismo Beach,

to the Santa Barbara County line, State Route 1 functions as a local street of varying cross-

section and reduced capacity.

Other routes that would be used for evacuation generally have two-lane cross-sections withlower capacity than the major through routes. These include State Route 227; Price Canyon

Road; Los Berros Road; Los Osos Valley Road; South Bay Boulevard; State Route 41; and

Old Creek Road.

1.6 Emer en Res onse Plan

This study has been completed in consultation and cooperation with the primary local

., response agencies responsible for evacuation planning and implementation within the area.

The evacuation time estimates presented in this study were developed to reQect the plans

and procedures set forth in the relevant emergency response plans which have been

developed and adopted by the various local agencies. These plans de6ne the agency

responsibilities, assigned functions, and procedures to be utilized in the event of a

radiological. incident at Diablo Canyon Power Plant. The principal plans include:

o San Luis Obispo County/Cities Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan,

July 1991;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan III.20,

Standard Operating Procedure - California Highway Patrol, San Luis Obispo Area

Office, August 1991;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan,

Standard Operating Procedure - State Department of Parks and Recreation;

.o San Luis Obispo County Office of the Superintendent of Schools Emergency

Response Plan;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan,

Standard Operating Procedures - San Luis Coastal Unified School District;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan

Standard Operating Procedure - Lucia Mar Unified School District;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan,

Standard Operating Procedure - Atascadero Unified School District; and

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan;

Standard Operating Procedure - Cuesta College, San Luis Obispo County

Community College District.

10

Chapter 2

STUDY METHODOLOGY

I'he

evacuation time assessment update made use of a computerized transportation model

package developed by Wilbur Smith Associates (WSA) especially for the purpose ofestimating time requirements and related information for evacuation of large areas and

populations. This model simulates the evacuation trafQc conditions, given the public

response characteristics, route capacities, and numbers of evacuating vehicles. The

methodology for applying this computer model to assess the evacuation time requirements

can be divided into five phases: data preparation; development of the evacuation network;

computer processing of the simulation model for various scenarios; analysis of output'and

development of Qndings; and recommendations for reduced evacuation time as may be

appropriate. The work flow for development of the computer network is illustrated in

Figure 4 and summarized in the following'section.

2.1 Data Collection

Collection of the data necessary for the evacuation time estimates included the following

efforts:

o Review of pertinent sections of Emergency Response Plans;

o Review and updating of the inventory of existing highway facilities, including

facility type, number of lanes, operating speeds, and traffic controls; and

o Assembly and review of updated information relating to evacuation demand at

recreational facilities, schools, and special institutions within the area.

Contacts were made with state, county and city ofQcials responsible for emergency response

planning. Available data on existing trafQc characteristics, transportation facilities, and land

uses were reviewed and supplemented by'Qeld reconnaissance observations in the BEPZ.

A list of contacts made during the course of this study are provided in Appendix A.

2.2 Evacuation Route Network Develo ment

The evacuation routes in the BEPZ emergency response plans were used to deQne an

evacuation roadway network for input to the evacuation time estimate computer model.

11

DEMOGRAPHICDATA

DEVElOP ~ EPZBASE MAP

DETERMINEPLANNING

ZONEBOUNDARIES

OBTHNPLANNINGDISTRICT

POPULATIONS

DEFINEMAJOR

POPULATIONZONES

DEVElOP.;EVACUATIONPOPULATIONCENTROIDS

DETERMINEEVACUATIONROUTES FOR

EACH CENTROID

IDENTIFICATIONOF SPECIALPROBLEM

AREAS

DEVELOPUNKIMODE

DESCRIPTIONS

DETERMINE LINKCHARACTERISTICSLENGTH. AVERAGE

SPEED, EVACUATIONCAPACITY

CENTROIDVEHICLEDEMAND

INPUT TOEVACUATIONTIME ASSESSMENT PROGRAM

KA'kWXNNNI%%%%NNNwx~r~~

Evacuation Network DevelopmentWork Flow

.12

Rgure 4

4

Major evacuation routes throughout the BEPZ are shown in Figure 5. Local evacuation

routes through individual communities and major recreation centers are shown in Appendix

Figures A-1 through A-11.

To develop the computer network, United States Geological Survey quadrangle maps were

used for analysis and distance measurements and were supplemented with local mapping for

detail of more recent development. Abase map was created to illustrate the BEPZ and was

used for mapping the computer network ofevacuation routes. Established Protective Action

Zones (PAZ) were analyzed and converted to centroids which represent the zonal activity

center in the network. Centroid connectors are used in the network to represent access to

the evacuation route system. Traffic routing from each centroid to the major evacuation .

routes was determined on the basis of directness and available roadway capacity.

2.2.1 Com uter Codin of Roadwa Lin ode Descri tions

To employ a computerized network, the roadways to be used as evacuation routes must be

defined as a series of "links" and "nodes". Each "link" represents a specific segment of

roadway which has common geometric features as well as similar operational characteristics.

A pair of "nodes" identifies the limits of each link. Nodes are located wherever evacuation

routes intersect, converge, or change operational characteristics.

Each link was described by the two node numbers; the "A"node at the beginning and the"B" node at the end of the link. The traffic characteristics of each link in the evacuation

network were determined through map and data review, field reconnaissance, and traffic

engineering analysis. A listing of the link characteristics was prepared, identifying the two

node numbers, the length of the link, the operating speed, and capacity (the number of lanes

times the assigned capacity per lane). Operating speeds and lane capacities reflect average

operating conditions.

2.2.2 Centroid Po ulation and Vehicles

The numbers of evacuating persons and vehicles estimated for the area represented by each

centroid, consist of two main components —resident and transient populations. The

estimated number of evacuating resident vehicles was derived from updated estimates of

population and dwelling units within each Protective Action Zone in the BEPZ. The

13

~ f 0) 0

estimate of transi,.nt vehicles recognized employment and visitation records at State beaches

and other sources reQecting in the area tourist activity. Details of these estimates are given

in Chapter 5.

2.2.3 Identification of S ecial Institutions and Recreation Areas

Several population components would require special evacuation consideration. These

include resident population not having access to an automobile and those in special

institutions or locations, such as schools, nursery schools, hospitals, nursing homes, and

transients without vehicles at area beaches. The evacuation requirements for these were

considered by individual analyses, separate from the computer simulation.

2.3 Evacuation Time Assessment Simulation

Ageneral description ofthe evacuation time assessment computer model is presented below.

A more detailed description of the computer model and procedures involved is presented

in Appendix D.

For each evacuation scenario and condition simulated, the number of trips originating from

each centroid is specified by the user. These trips are loaded onto the network over several

time intervals at a rate corresponding to the estimated composite mobilization time

distribution representing public response time following an evacuation order. This

mobilization time results f'rom the combination of individual time distributions to receive the

warning, to travel home (ifnecessary), and to make preparations to leave home. Also input

into the computer program are the routes to be followed by vehicles evacuating from each

centroid.

In the evacuation simulation procedure, the total evacuation period was analyzed in a series

of 15-minute time increments. During each time increment, trips were loaded onto the

computer roadway network from the zone centroid in accordance with the mobilization time

distribution. Each vehicle, or group of vehicles, Qows through the network, with progress

along its evacuation route determined initially by the operating speeds assigned to each

roadway link. Where the number of vehicles seeking to use a specific link in a given time

increment exceeds the link capacity, the simulation model begins to register traffic queues

on links approaching the point of constraint. Where queues build up along a route, they

introduce delay time on the constrained link (roadway segment) and on feeder links further

15

P'tA* " > ~w~r

upstream. Each vehic?" entering;the queue will experience a delay while moving through

the queuing area. These delays are encountered by all traEc on the congested links, until

the vehicle volumes decrease to a level less than link capacity. Once past the point of

constraint, the evacuating vehicles resume normal operating speed,,until they encounter a

new queue, or reach safety, beyond the evacuation area boundary.

The model produces several kinds of information useful for evaluation. These include the

total evacuation time and distribution of the percentage of trips reaching the BEPZ

boundary by elapsed time f'rom start of evacuation. The above distributions also may be

produced for trips leaving from any specified subareas within the total evacuation area.

Average travel time and delay time is calculated for trips exiting the BEPZ for each

successive time increment within the total evacuation period.

The simulation model can also pr'ovide "snapshots" of transport system conditions at

specified moments during the evacuation process. These "snapshots" consist of linkvolume,

queue lengths, average delay by link, and volume-capacity ratios for each link in the system.

16

Chapter 3

GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS

Several general assumptions were made as part of the process of estimating the numbers of

persons and vehicles which would evacuate. The most significant of these are presented in

the following sections. Supplemental assumptions are identified in subsequent chapters.

3.1 Public Information and Notification

For this study it is assumed that the Early Warning System sirens are used to alert the BEPZ

population, followed by instructions to evacuate through radio and television broadcasts and

public address systems. In the event,"an early warning system siren fails to sound the County

will use route alerting using fire or law enforcement personnel.

3.2 Evacuation Actions

The County's Emergency Response Plan identities four Emergency Action Level

Classifications:

o Notification of Unusual Event;

o Alert;o Site Area Emergency; and

o General Emergency.

No evacuation action is initiated in response to a Notification of Unusual Event.

An Alert emergency classification level will result in the closing of Montana De Oro State

Park and the beach area of the, community of Avila Beach/Port San Luis. School buses will

be. dispatched to standby at appropriate schools which may be instructed to evacuate at this

stage under certain conditions.

For a Site Area Emergency, Montana De Oro State Park, Pismo State Beach, Oceano

Campground, and the beach area of the community of Avila Beach/Port San Luis willbe

closed. Also, consideration will be given to implementating school evacuation, limiting

hospital admissions, and consideration of evacuation of BEP Zones 1 & 2.

17

«,f y 'tt~ 0

Upon declaration of a General Emergency, the general public willbe-notified by activation

of the sirens and instructed about protective actions by means of Emergency Broadcast

System messages. Initial protective actions will involve the six-mile low population zone

(Protective Action Zones 1 and 2).

Since beaches and parks may be closed prior to any need for evacuation by the general

public, a certain number of transients may have left the area early on. To the extent thatthis takes place, estimates of evacuation time may be conservative, because they assume thatall persons remain within the area until they are instructed to evacuate.

3.3 Traffic Controls

When the County Direction and Control Group determines an evacuation is imminent,external/through traffic traveling on U.S. 101, S.R. 1, S.R. 41, and S.R. 166 willbe divertedat various locations beyond the perimeter of the BEPZ. Local residents, property owners

and business owners will be allowed to enter the BEPZ to assist with removal of theirfamilies and possessions.

When an evacuation becomes imminent, California Highway Patrol {CHP) oKcers willbe

dispatched to direct trafficat their assigned posts. Officers willbe assembled and dispatched

according to Standard Operating Procedures established for the specific evacuation scenario.

It is assumed that in the event that sufficient oKcers are not available to manage allidentified traffic control points, the County Direction and Control Group willdetermine the

most effective use of available resources.

Following notification to evacuate, it is assumed that two-way normal operation of traKcQows willbe maintained for as long as possible to allow residents to return home and makepreparations to evacuate. It is anticipated that within one to two hours after notification toevacuate, the prevailing direction of travel would be outbound and one-way traffic controlmeasures could begin to be implemented, ifwarranted and approved by the Direction and

Control Group.

Current CHP traffic control plans indicate that Caltrans personnel and San Luis ObispoCounty Engineering Department would be requested to assist in the implementation oftraKc diversion and traKc control measures including the placement ofsigns and barricades.

Additionally, the CHP would mobilize wreckers to designated points in advance of the major

18

ll ~ - 'i 1/'1

Qow of evacuation trafQc. Wreckers would be dispatched to remove disabled vehicles from

the evacuation roadways and maintain traKc Qow.

3.4 Number of Vehicles Evacuatin

The estimated number of vehicles evacuating reflect the following assumptions regarding

occupancy levels:

a. Resident population evacuate using one or more vehicles per household

(depending on vehicle ownership characteristics in each zone). This is estimated

to result in between 2;0 and 3.5 persons per vehicle, on average, for the various

areas, if school-age children are included;

b. Non-resident beach visitoi's are estimated to average between 2.7 to 3.5 persons

per vehicle; and

c. Non-resident workers, persons staying at area hotels/motels, and visitors to areas

other than the beaches, are estimated to average between 1.0 to 3.0 persons per

vehicle.

3.5 Evacuation Route Conditions

A set of evacuation time estimates were developed for the area, based on all evacuation

routes available for use. The evacuation network and the assumed operating conditions and

capacities are discussed in Chapter 6,

Additional time estimates were made assuming that adverse weather conditions were

present. Adverse weather conditions in this area would most likely be heavy rain or fog.

Such weather conditions are assumed to reduce roadway capacities by 15 percent.

19

Chapter 4ALTERNATIVEEVACUATIONSCENARIOS

An evacuation of part or all of the BEPZ could be initiated at any time. The evacuation

might occur under any of a broad range of seasonal factors involving varying weatherconditions and levels of recreational area activity. As discussed in Chapter 1, and shown inTable 2, it is estimated that the transient population of up to 44,265 persons may be locatedwithin the area during the daytime on a peak summer weekend.

The season and time of day at which an evacuation is initiated would determine the numberof persons to be evacuated and the time interval required to respond to the evacuation

warning. These factors, then, would influence the total time interval required to evacuate

the area. Therefore, three different time period scenarios were selected for development

of evacuation time estimates. These are: '

Daytime on a normal weekday (in late spring or early fall);o Daytime on a peak summer weekend; and

o Nighttime, on a peak summer weekend.

Warm-weather conditions were chosen for the scenarios, to maximize the estimated transient

population to be evacuated for the time assessment (see Table 13). A fourth scenario, was

also investigated, which reQects and evacuation during adverse weather conditions (rain or«g).

4.1 Normal Weekda Evacuation

The Qrst scenario investigates an evacuation assumed to occur on a late spring, or early fallweekday. It is estimated that a substantial number of transients (workers and tourists) wouldbe present at this time. Recreation facilities such as State Parks and public beaches wouldbe heavily utilized. This scenario assumes that the evacuation occurs during the middayperiod when the maximum number of visitors would be present within the BEPZ.

The evacuation times for schools in the BEPZ have also been included in the weekday timeestimate for special institutions. The time estimates reQect normal school year attendance.

20

4.2 Peak Summer Weekend Da Evacuation

In the event that the evacuation takes place on a summer weekend day, a portion of the

evacuees would be non-residents (tourists, workers, and/or beachgoers). On a weekend day,

resident population in the area might be slightly higher than on a weekday when some

residents would be out of the area'in connection with their work. In this weekend dayscenario, it was assumed that the evacuation occurred at mid-day when the largest numberof transients would be in the area. Estimates of beach visitors are based on peak utilizationof State Park and public beaches. The number ofvisitors at most beach areas on peak days

is limited by the availability of parking.

4.3 Ni httime Evacuation

In the event that an evacuation takes place at night, the maximum resident population and

the minimum transient population would be in the BEPZ. This scenario assumes the

evacuation warning occurred on a summer evening when most people would be at theirpermanent or temporary place of residence.

4.4 Adverse Weather

Adverse weather conditions may occur in the BEPZ which could potentially coincide withand impede and evacuation. The most probable would be the effects of heavy rainfall ordense fog. Heavy rainfall is used for this analysis.

21

l4 'k +0

Chapt"r 5

EVACUATIONDEMANDESTIMATES

The number of persons within the Basic Emergency Planning Zone (BEPZ) at the time an

evacuation occurs, their mobility characteristics, and their locations relative to the majorevacuation routes are key factors governing the time necessary to evacuate part or all of thearea. These factors affect the number of vehicles which would travel each section of theevacuation routes, the locations where congestion would occur, and the requirements forspecial assistance.

The populace within the BEPZ has been classified into six groups, based on their particulartransportation characteristics and/or needs. The groups are:

A. Persons Evacuatin B Own Vehicle

1. Residents who own vehicles;

2. Transients (visitors and non-resident workers) who have vehicles available;

B. Persons Re uirin Evacuation Assistance

1. Residents without vehicle;2. Transients without vehicle;3. School children; and

4. Special populations having restricted mobility.

The following sections discuss the population groups, and the evacuation transportationrequirements associated with each.

5.1 Persons Evacuatin B Own Vehicle

The estimated number of resident-owned evacuating vehicles was derived from the updatedestimate of dwelling units per zone, after deducting the number of households withoutvehicles. Households without vehicles and multi-vehicle owning households for each zone

in 1990 were based on the same proportion of total households as calculated in the 1985

evacuation study. The number ofvehicles estimated to evacuate is based on the assumption

that: all of the one-vehicle households would generate one vehicle; 50 percent of the two-

vehicle households would generate one vehicle, and the remaining 50 percent would

22

rg~ '4 Ea ~l

generate two vehicles; and all of the three-vehicle households would utilize two vehicles forevacuation purposes. These evacuation vehicle rates were then applied to estimated 1990

zonal household data to obtain the updated estimates of residents'vacuating vehicles.

Although detailed 1990 Census data which reports household vehicle ownership was notavailable at the time of this study, general 1989 statistics reported by Urban Decision

Systems as part of their "Chamber Data PAC'or San Luis Obispo County (October 1989)

confirms the reasonability ofthe earlier 1985 vehicle ownership characteristics. The assumed

evacuation vehicle generation rates used for vehicle-owning households were originallydeveloped by Alan M. Voorhees & Associates (AMVA)for use in the 1980 Evacuation

Time Assessment Plan for the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant. Based on WilburSmith

Associates (WSA) experience in the area of evacuation planning, the AMVAassumptions

produce conservative estimates of evacuation vehicles for area residents. Many of the

evacuation studies prepared for emergency response purposes assume an average evacuation

rate of one vehicle per vehicle-owning household. The AMVAassumption results in an

average evacuation rate of approximately 1.2 vehicle per vehicle-owning household. Forconsistency purposes, the more conservative vehicle generation rates have been maintainedin this update study.

The number of transient vehicles evacuating were estimated independently for the threeevacuation conditions. Earlier transient estimates reported in the March 1985/Revision 3

Emergency Response Plan and those developed for the 1985 Evacuation Time Assessment

were reviewed and updated for 1990 conditions. Transient population components (e.g. non-resident beachgoers, tourists/visitors, and workers) were identified and estimated for each

PAZ and for each evacuation condition.

Beachgoers, which represent the largest proportion of the daytime transients within the

BEPZ, were estimated based on California Department of Parks and Recreation 1990

VisitorAttendance Reports (for utilization of the State Park beaches). Beachgoers at publicbeaches where no visitation records are kept were estimated based on a review of earlierestimates and physical characteristics of the beach area including general parking constraints.Non-resident tourist/visitor and worker populations were estimated based on several factorswhich included the earlier 1985 transient estimates and general tourism, business, and

employment information available through the local Chamber of Commerce.

g ~

It should be noted that the scope of this study did not include a detailed survey or extensive

investigation of transient population. The 1990 transient population estimates represent a

refinement/update of the 1985 estimates. The current estimates have resulted in various

23

I

adjustments and/or shifts in transient population between PAZs. In some cases, individualPAZ transient population have increased and in others the Ggures have decreased withrespect to estimates used in the 1985 Evacuation Time Assessment. Transient populationwithin the 0 to 10-mile radius (PAZs one through Gve) in the 1990 estimates show littlechange. Between the 10-mile radius and BEPZ boundary, transient populations have beenreduced. The most signiQcant adjustments have been made within PAZ 6 (City of PismoBeach). In this PAZ, it was difficult to reasonability justify the magnitude of 1985 peaksummer weekend and nighttime transient population accumulations of 14,500 and 7,450 non-

residents respectively. Normal weekday transient populations were also judged to be

somewhat overestimated. The re-assessed 1990 transient estimates for PAZ 6 are

significantly lower, but more in line with State Beach utilization and general transientestimates for other beach communities within the BEPZ.

It is important to note that evacuation assumptions applied to the transient population inthe evacuation time assessment add a factor of conservatism to the analysis. These

assumptions include the following:

1. Beachgoers are all assumed to be non-residents of the BEPZ; and

2. Beachgoers and other transients are assumed to remain in the area until they and the

resident population are instructed to evacuate.

Estimated 1990 evacuating resident and transient vehicles by zone for each evacuation

condition are given in Table 3. For the entire BEPZ, resident-related evacuating'ehiclesare estimated to total 61,560. Transient vehicles are estimated to total 8,342 on a normalweekday, as many as 15,551 on a peak summer weekend day, and approximately 4,883 fornighttime conditions. Resident and transient vehicles combined produce the evacuationvehicle totals summarized in Table 4 by evacuation condition.

24

yl

0

C 0

Table 3

Estimated Evttcuatlon Vehicles 1990

Residents Transients(2)

Protective Action Zone

1 2-Mile

Allscenarios(1) Normal Weekday Peak Summer Weekend Day Nighttime

2 6-Mile

3 Avila/San Luis Bay/See Canyon/Stlulre Canyon

4 Prefumo Canyon/Los Osos Valley

5 Baywood/Los Osos

6 City of Pismo Beach

7 Indian Knob/Price Canyon

8 San Luis Obispo Area

9 Morro Bay/Cayucos

10 Five Cities, Southern Portion

11 Orcutt Rd/Lopez Dr./Route 227

12 Nipomo North of WillowRoad

Total - Basic Emergency PlannIng Zone

59

1,745

494

7,467

5,358

67

20,153

7@41

15,503

61/60

355

879

72

1,286

1,172

1/71

1,960

147

8/42

133

2,462

1,163

5,819

139

15,551

87

22

1,019

956

790

1,276

175

4,883

Source: (1) Based on Residential Popuhtlon Statistics received from PG&E Land Depattment, Scptembcr 1991.

(2) Estimates developed by WilburSmith Associates based on California Department of Parks and Recreation 1990 Visitor/Attendance Reports and local Chamber of

Commerce information.

Table 4

Total EvacuatingVehicles

Evacuation Condition

Vehicle-OwningPopulation Comporient

Normal Weekday

Peak Summer

Weekend Day Nighttime

Resident

Transient

Total Vehicles

61,560

8,342

69,902

61,560

15,551

77,111

61,560

4,883

66,443

Source: Table 3 totals for BEPZ.

5;2 Po ulation Re uirin Evacuation Assistance

Anumber of persons in the BEPZ may not have a vehicle available to use in an evacuation.

Groups which may require transportation assistance would include households without

vehicles, households where the family vehicles are unavailable at the time of evacuation,

transients without vehicles, and persons in institutions (schools, hospitals, or

nursing/convalescent homes).

The San Luis Obispo County/Cities Nuclear Power Plant Emergency ResponsePlan'rovides

for the evacuation of persons in households where vehicles are not available by

instructions that those not evacuated by Rends or relatives should assemble at designated

collection points to be evacuated by bus. Those unable to go to the collection point are

instructed to telephone a designated number for transportation assistance.

Public transit in the BEPZ is furnished by several providers operating a variety of buses ofdifferent sizes. In order to estimate the number of bus trips needed for supplementary

transportation assistance during an evacuation, it was assumed that the average seating

capacity per bus is 36 persons. Recogniz'ing that some standees could be accommodated forthe trip to the reception centers, but, on the other hand, that many riders would be carrying

at least one parcel or bag, a conservative average estimate load of 40 persons per bus was

'p. Cit, Part I, Section 6, Concept of Operations, Pages 6-8.

26

used to estimate bus demand. For each of the three evacuation scenarios, the required

numbers of bus trips are:

Scenario

Table 5

Required Number of Bus Trips for AllEvacuation Scenarios

Persons At-Home Bus Trips

Normal Weekday

Peak Weekend Day

Nighttime

10,138

11,570

11,570

290

290

Source: Table 10 and 11 totals for "Persons-at-Home"

Note that school children are not included in the above weekday scenario, since, as noted

below, the School Districts plan to evacuate them by school bus. Also, the totals given

assume that the entire BEPZ is evacuated. For a partial evacuation, there would be a

smaller requirement for supplemental transportation.

5.2.1 Schools

A summary of student enrollment in public and private schools within the BEPZ is given in

Tables 6a and 6b. Current enrollments within the study area are reported by school

authorities to be 16,425 students in public schools and 2,503 in private schools.

5.2.2 Public Schools

Public school enrollments are divided between three school districts: San Luis Obispo

Coastal (8,160 students), Lucia Mar (7,972 students), and Cayucos (293 students) Unified

School Districts. Each District has its own Qeet of buses to transport students. The Once

of County Superintendent of Schools also has a number of buses for use in transporting

students to and from facilities under its jurisdiction.

In the event that an evacuation warning is given on a weekday while school is in session, San

Luis Obispo County School Districts willrelocate students from schools within the BEPZ to

27

Table 6a

'Public School Enrollments

School Public School DistrictStudent

Enrollment

Bellevue/Sante Fe Elementary School

Baywood School

Los Osos Middle School

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

87

675

490

Sunnyside School

Monarch Grove Elementary School

Bishop's Peak School

Hawthorne School

Laguna Middle School

Los Ranchos School

Pacheco Elementary

Pacific Beach High School

San Luis Obispo Adult Education

San Luis Obispo High School

Sinsheimer School

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

454

406

237

670

272

81

1,195

390

Smith {C.L)School

Teach Alternative School

Del Mar Elementary School

Morro Bay Elementary

Morro Bay High School

Judkins Middle School

Shell Beach Elementary

Arroyo Grande High School

Branch Elementary

.Grover City Elementary

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal,

San Luis Coastal

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

10

10

10

440

248

275

298

797

694

381

2,126

549

28

~'I

MFA t4

Table 6a Cont.

Table 6a

Public School Enrollments

School Public School DistrictStudent

Enrollment

Grover Heights Elementary

Harloe Elementary

Lopez Continuation School

North Oceano Elementary

Ocean View Elementary

Oceano Elementary

Paulding Middle School

Mesa Elementary

Cayucos Elementary School

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

.Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Cayucos

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

12

Total

520

530

175

495

571

615

293

16,625

Less SLO Adult Education students vvho are assumed to have access to personal automobile transportation

Public Pupils to be Evacuated by School Bus 16,425

Source: November 1992 Enrollment, San Luis Obispo County, Superintendent of Schools.

29

Table 6a Cont.

Table 6b

Private School Enrollments

School Address

StudentEnrollment

Pine Tree School 1114 El Morro AveLos Osos

Sand Castle Pre-School 1390 4th Street

Los Osos

30

Sunshine Pre-School

Village Childrens Center

Happy Time CooperativePre-School

New Life Pre-School

YMCAChildren's Center

Alta Vista School

Day Spring Christian,

Foothill Pre-School

Johnson Ave Pre-School

Los Verdes Montessori

Mission College Prep.

Old Mission School

1900 Los Osos Valley Rd.Los Osos

490 Los Osos Valley Rd.Los Osos

1091 Bello Street

Pismo Beach

990 James WayPismo Beach

340 Pomeroy Ave.Pismo Beach

1534 Lizzie StreetSan Luis Obispo

525 Cerro RomauldoSan Luis Obispo

317 Foothill Blvd.

San Luis Obispo

2075 Johnson AvenueSan Luis Obispo

4200 So. Higuera St.

San Luis Obispo

682 Palm StreetSan Luis Obispo

761 Broad

San Luis Obispo

36

75

16

30

24

155

10

53

35

30

Table 6b cont.

Table 6b

Private School Enrollments

School Address PAZStudent

Enrollment

San Luis Christian Academy

Southwood Christian School

United Methodist Childrens

Center

Zion Christian School

Estero Bay Childrens Center

Estero Bay Day School

Roandoak of God Christian

Academy

Arroyo Grande Montessori

Carmelita Child DevelopmentCenter

52 Foothill Blvd.

San L'uis Obispo

3396 Johnson AvenueSan Luis Obispo

1S15 Fredericks

San Luis Obispo

1010 Foothill Blvd.San Luis Obispo

685 Monterrey AvenueMorro Bay

853 Quintana Rd.

Morro Bay

4SSA Chorro Creek Rd.Morro Bay

216 OakArroyo Grande

512 S. 13th

Grover Beach

10

10

10

67

45

53

24

10

24

Central Coast Christian

Academy

Coastal Christian

Achievement School

Coastal ChristianAchievement School

Dandy Lion Pre-School

227 Bridge St.

Arroyo Grande

207 Pilgrim WayArroyo Grande

2865 S. Ocean Blvd.

Arroyo Grande

1089 Baden Ave.Grover Beach

10

10

10

10

218

54

10

31

0

0

Table 6b cont.

Table 6b

Private School Enrollments

School AddressStudent

Enrollment

Discovering A Childs Place 1475 Trouville AvenueGrover Beach

10 12

Las Lomas Childrens Center

Lighthouse Christian School

250 Wesley St.

Arroyo Grande

497 Fair Oaks Blvd.

Arroyo Grande

10

10

42

80

Little Oaks Pre-School

Open Door ChurchPrechool

Peace Christian School

900 Oak Park Blvd.

Arroyo Grande

1911 Ocean

Oceano

244 Oak Park Blvd.

Arroyo Grande

10

10

10

42

36

Peter Pan Childrens Center

Small World ChristianPre-School

St. Patrick's Parochial School

Valley View Seventh-DayAdventist Jr. Academy

1587 EI Camino RealArroyo Grande

207 Pilgrim WayArroyo Grande

900 W. Branch St.

Arroyo Grande

230 Vernon Ave.Arroyo Grande

10

10

10

10

60

26

Total 2,503

Source Wilbur Smith Associates telephone conversations with Private School Operators, December 1991 through November,

1992.

32

$ h+ tc ~

t

units will be transported by the Office of the County Superintendent of Schools (OCSS).

The primally means of transport would be by school bus.

There are presently approximately 74 school buses of various capacities in the Basic

Emergency Planning Zone. The legal capacity of each bus is based on three students perseat, but California law allows the practice of putting four students in the seat in case ofemergency. This increases the capacity substantially. The combined total legal school bus

capacity of the Lucia Mar and San Luis Coastal Unified School Districts is 4,203 students,

while the combined total emergency capacity is 6,021 students, an increase of 30 percent.

The districts have successfully shown in drills that, when using the emergency seating

arrangement, and multiple trips, they can evacuate all their students and staff without theneed for outside buses. Their Grst concern is to evacuate the elementary schools, since itis assumed that many high school students drive to school and can evacuate themselves and

friends. For the second run, the buses go to the high schools to evacuate any remainingstudents or staff and to the elementary schools outside the BEPZ: Standard operatingprocedures have been prepared for each school district in the area: San Luis Coastal; LuciaMar; Cayucos; Atascadero UniGed; and Cuesta College.

The evaluation of transportation requirements for school children assumes that the majorityofstudents attending public schools would be transported outside the affected area by school

district buses which would be assigned to each school. The County emergency plansencourage the parents of these children to reunite with their children at assigned receptioncenters outside the BEPZ.

5.2.3 Private Schools

Few private schools provide bus transportation for their pupils. The OCSS willnotifyprivateschools of an emergency condition. It is assumed that the private school operators willarrange transportation for their students.

33

so

5.2.4 S ecial Po ulations Havin Restricted Mobili .

There are three population sub-categories within the BEPZ which would require assistance

in an emergency evacuation. These are:

1. Hospital patients;

2. Convalescent Home residents; and

3. Homebound persons.

.As indicated in the San Luis Obispo County/Cities Nuclear Power Plant Emergency

Response Plan,'ersons in these special categories would be relocated to reception centers

or appropriate facilities outside the affected area. Transportation requirements for the

relocation of these special institutions are identiGed in the following sections.

5.2.5 Persons in Institutions

Four acute care hospitals and several convalescent and residential facilities are located

within the BEPZ. Patients from these facilities would be evacuated by bus, wheelchair van

or ambulance, as appropriate. Estimated transportation requirements shown below are

based on an assumed average mix of patient requirements based on the judgement of staff

of the County's health service. For acute care hospitals, 50 percent of patients were

assumed to be ambulatory; about 30 percent to require wheelchair vans; and 20 percent

ambulances. 'For nursing homes/convalescent hospitals, 75 percent were assumed

ambulatory, 15 percent to require wheelchair vans, and 10 percent ambulances.

For residential care facilities, 80 percent of residents were assumed to be ambulatory, 10

percent to require wheelchair vans, and 10 percent ambulances. Table 7 gives the number

of patients at each facility by type of facility, and includes the PAZ of each institution. Abreakdown as to how many trips by buses, ambulance, and wheelchair vans are estimated

to be required is given in Table 8. As shown there, a total of 24 buses, 85 ambulances and

44 wheelchair vans are estimated to be required to meet institutional special transportation

needs,

Op Cit, Part I, Section 6, Concept of Operations, Pages 6-9.

34

0

Table 7

Persons in Institutions NeedingSpecial Transportation Assistance

Facility Address

Persons

Needing

Evacuation

Assistance

Acute Care Hospitals

French

San Luis Obispo General

Sierra Vista

Arroyo Grande Community

911 Johnson Ave.p.LO.

2180 Johnson Avc.4.LO.

1010 Murray Ave.,S.LO.

345 S. Halcyon Rd.~G. 10

178

79

Subtotal 435

Convalescent Hospitals/Center

Cabrillo Care Center

Hillhaven

De Groots Nursing Home

Seashell Communities

Arroyo Grande Care Center

3033 Augusta, S.LO.

1425 Woodside Dr.,S3 0

1015 Buchon St., S.LO.

SR 1 h S. Bay Blvd., M.B.

1212 Farroll Ave., A.G. 10

162

154

12

216

Subtotal

Residential Care Facilities

'Dtrelkeld Family Home

Casa De Vida

1429 14th St, LOJ253 Montana Way, LO.

879 Meinecke, S.LO.

5/6

Ocean View

Liiiian Guest Home

Thc Huntington

Alder Guest Home

Oak Park Manor

2803 Ocean Blvd., Cay

1264 Bolten Drive, M33.

SR 1 8c So. Bay Blvd., M.B.

295 Alder Street, A.G.

1073 Old Oak Park Rd., A.G.

10

10

10

Patio Home Care 222 South Elm, A.G. 10

Subtotal

Total in institutions to be evacuated 1337

Source: Wilbur Smith Associates

Note: S.LO. = San Luis Obispo, A.G. = Arroyo Grande, M33. = Morro Bay, LO. = Los Osos, Cay=Cayucos

35

r. t.

4

Table 8

Summary of Vehicle Requirements for Special

Transportation Needs by Institution

Patients Vehicles Required

Institution PAZ Total Ambulatory

Non-

Ambulatory Bus Ambulance WC Van

Acute Care Hospitals

Arroyo Grande Community

French

S.LO. General

Sierra Vista

Subtotals

Convalescent Hospitals

Cabrillo Care Center

Hillhaven

Seashell Communities

Arroyo Grande Care Center

DeGroots

Subtotal

Residential Care Facility

Adler

Oak Park

Patio Home

Threlkeld Family Home

Huntington

Lillian Guest Home

Ocean View

Hillhaven

Casa De Vida

Subtotals

Totals

10

10

10

10

79

178

435

162

154

216

12

10

30

1367

1367

69

89

218

116

162

75

19

19

71

72

39

69

89

217

54

159

17

18

433

05

1.7

05

3.1

1.9

4.1

1.9

02

12

0.2

05

05

02

~ 1.8

0.1

0.1

0.6

1.8

8.0

13$

4.0

17.8

8.1

7.7

10.8

5.0

0.6

33

03

0.6

0.6

03

0.2

02

0.75

3.9

6.9

2.0

8.9

4.1

3.9

5.4

03

17

0.2

0.4

0.4

02

0.1

0.1

05

44'otes:

~ Decimals are used to illustrate that the buses, ambulances, and wheelchair vans may make several

stops before reaching capacity.

WC Van denotes wheelchair van.

Vehicle capacities are assumed to be as follows - Bus= 40 persons, Ambulance= 2 persons, WC

Van= 6 persons.

36

5.2.6 Homebound Persons

The number of homebound persons requiring special transportation was estimated from a

list maintained by the County Office ofEmergency Services. Estimated vehicle requirements

were derived after consultation with County health service staff on the assumption that

roughly 10 percent would require wheelchairs and one percent ambulances. Table 9 lists the

number of homebound persons requiring transportation assistance by PAZ.

5.3 Summa of S ecial Trans ortation Assistance Needs

A summary of the population within the BEPZ requiring evacuation assistance is given in

Table 10 for each of the three evacuation scenarios. As indicated in the Table, demand for

supplemental transportation assistance is expected to be at a maximum on a schoolday when

persons requiring bus transportation could total about 28,100 including students at schools.

As mentioned previously, in the discussion of schools, School District Emergency Response

plans call for public school evacuation needs to be met by the school bus fleet when school

is in session. Persons estimated to require transportation by public transit bus are estimated

to range from approximately 12,858 on a peak summer weekend day to about 11,222 on a

normal weekday, with the estimated nighttime value some 12,583. Considerably lower total

demand is expected at night or on weekends, when students and workers are at home.

Demand for ambulances or wheelchair vans shows less variation from one scenario to

another. A summary of estimated vehicle trip needs for transportation assistance is given

in Table 11. A listing of schools and hospitals by PAZ can be found in Appendix B.

5.4 Diablo Can on Nuclear Plant Workers and Visitors

The number of on-site workers and visitors present at the Diablo Canyon Power Plant

depends upon the day of the week, and whether or not a generation unit is shutdown for

maintenance or refueling purposes. During routine shutdowns or "outages" of a unit, there

is generally an increase in the number of contractor personnel on site to perform the

necessary maintenance and fueling activities.

Pacific Gas and Electric Company would order an evacuation of the plant at the declaration

of a Site Area Emergency in coordination with off-site officials. In this event, an estimated

900 vehicles would be instructed to evacuate the site, with some personnel remaining on-site

for emergency action.

37

Table 9

Homebound Persons RequiringSpecial Transportation

LocationPersons Needing

Evacuation Assistance

Avila Beach

Baywood Park/Los Osos

Pismo/Shell Beach

San Luis Obispo

Cayucos

Morro Bay

Arroyo Grande

Oceano

6/7

10

10

35

34

116

38

59

Total 310

Source: San Luis Obispo County, Oflice of Emergency Services, Special Needs/Evacuation Assistance population Summaty,

December, 199L

38

Table 10

Summary ol'ersons Needing

Special Transportation Assistance

Population Category

Normal Wg:kday(Schoolday)

. Peak Weekend Day(NonSchool Day)

Night-Time

Bus Transportation

Persons-at-Home

a). Households without vehicles

b.) Requiring special transportation

Subtotal

Acute Care Hospitals

Nursing Homes/Convalescent Hospitals

Residential Care Facilities

Transients without Autos

Total, Persons by Transit Bus

Ambulances

9,862

276

10,138

218

150

11,222

11@94 11@94

276 276

232 232

354 79

12,858 1~83

11470 11/70

218 218

484 484

Persons-at-Home

Hospitals

Nursing Homes/Convalescent Hospitals

Residential Care Facilities

87

12 12

87

12

Total Person by Ambulance

Wheelchair Vttns

Persons-at-Home

Hospitals

Nursing Homes/Convalescent

Residential Care Facilities

31

130

96

31 31

130 130

Total Persons by WC Van Trips

Notes: (1) Bus transportation for students at public schools is to be provided by and at the direction of thc Office of the

County Superintendent of Schooh. 'Ihetefore, school students are not included in the estimated total to be

cvacuatcd by special assistance transit buses.

(2) Jt is assumed that private school students are either picked up by their patents, or transported by the school;

therefore, they are not included in the total persons to be «vacuated by special assistance transit buses.

39

Table 11

Estimate of Vehicle Trip Requirements forSpecial Transportation Needs

Population Category

Normal Weekday(Schoolday)

Peak Weekend

Day (NonSchool Day)

Night-Time

Bus Transportation „

Persons-at-Home

a). Households without Vehicles

b.) Homebound

Subtotal

247 283

Schools'cute

Care Hospitals

Nursing Homes/Convalescent Hospitals

Residential Care Facilities

13

24

13

24

13

24

Transients w'ithout Autos

Total Bus Trips 336 336

Ambulances

Persons-at-Home

Hospitals

Nursing Homes/Convalescent Hospitals

Residential Care Facilities

33

,8

33 33

Total Ambulance Trips

Wheelchair Vans

Persons-at-Home

87 87 87

Hospitals

Nursing Homes/Convalescent

Residential Care Facilities

Total Wheelchair Van Trips

17

49

17

49

17

49

~ Bus transportation to be provided by and at the direction of the Office of the County Superintendent of Schools.

40

Chapter 6

EVACUATIONROADWAYNEPVORK

Evacuation route plans are set forth as part of the emergency response plans for the local

organizations responsible for planning'nd implementing an evacuation of the Basic

Emergency Planning Zone (BEPZ). These plans identify the local roadways to be used as

evacuation routes by each community. The major evacuation routes designated for the

BEPZ are shown in Figure 5 and described in Appendix Exhibit A-1, which reproduces an

excerpt of the County Emergency Response Plan.

6.1 Recent and Planned Im rovements to Ma or Road Network

Contact was made with State and local officials responsible for elements of the area road

system to update information on system improvements. These contacts revealed that there

are no signiQcant projects planned for area roadways in the near future. Some periodic

routine maintenance projects are programmed along state routes in the area; however,

Caltrans advises that traffic operations could quickly be "normalized" in the event of an

emergency evacuation.

The County Engineering Department advises that plans are advancing for improvements to

the so called "twinbridges" on South Bay Boulevard in Morro Bay. These bridge spans have

been vulnerable to occasional closure because of Qooding. They would ultimately be

reconstructed on a raised proQle which is expected to improve their serviceability greatly

during periods of high water.

6.2 Evacuation Route Com uter Network

The designated evacuation routes were translated into a link/node network for input into the

computerized Evacuation Time Assessment Program. First, the area roadway network was

redeQned as a system of roadway links (segments) and nodes (roadway intersections).

Network nodes were then numbered and coded for input into the computer program.

Protective Action Zones (PAZ) were represented in the network by centroids, representing

the center of activity within the zone. Centroid connectors were used to represent zonal

access to major evacuation routes.

41

The link/node network representing the evacuation routes, and the location of the,

population centroids representing the Protective Action Zone, are. depicted in Figure 6. The

Qgure also illustrates the centroid connector links.

6.3 Traffic 0 eration

Operation of traffic on the major evacuation routes willbe governed by the County's Traffic

Management Plan. This plan is developed in conjunction with the California Highway Patrol

and is part of their Standard Operating Procedures.

6.4 Travel S eeds

Average speeds were assigned to each link according to the character of the roadway.

Freeway speeds were assigned at 30-45 miles per hour with ramp speeds at 15 miles per

hour. Four-lane roadways were generally assigned speeds ranging from 25 to 35 miles per

hour, depending on posted speed limits, roadway quality and access control. Speeds for two-

lane roadways ranged from 10 miles per hour to 25 miles per hour. Centroid connectors

were considered as local or neighborhood streets and assigned a speed of 10 miles per hour.

It should be noted that the above mentioned speed assignments represent average speeds

and apply only when the roadway facilities are operating below the assigned roadway

capacity. Once traffic flow reaches or exceeds roadway capacity, the computer model begins

to simulate the formation of traffic queues on the "over-capacity" links and any feeder links

affected by the over-capacity link. The computer model adjusts the travel times to reflect

the congested conditions.

6.5 Roadwa Conditions

Capacities assigned to each roadway link in the computer model take into consideration

general roadway geometries as well as side road interferences. The roadway capacities used

for this analysis are given in Table 12. These are not the same values used in the 1980 and

1985 Evacuation Time Assessments. The values were reviewed and adjusted in some cases

to reflect more conservative average lane capacities. The updated capacities have been re-.

42

w g~ ~~ P))

evaluated using standard Highway Capacity Manual'ethodology and are judged to be

reasonable estimates for emergency evacuation conditions.

One important change in the evacuation capacity-assumptions relates to the assumed

operation of U.S. 101 northbound in the Cuesta Grade area. The current evacuation

capacity assumptions assume that only two northbound lanes (instead of three) would be

used for evacuation purposes.

Once an evacuation is well underway, most vehicles would be headed in the same direction.

Because of the directional Qow and controlled routings, lane capacities could be higher than

those observed under normal circumstances. Another factor which could contribute to

smoother Qow and higher capacities is that the drivers involved in the evacuation would

probably be the most seasoned, experienced driver of each household. The standard

operating procedures for trafQc contr'ol provide for clearance of disabled vehicles from key

evacuation routes.

Highway Capacity Manual - Special Report 209, Transportation Research Board,National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1985.

Table 12

Capacity of Major Evacuation Routes

Route Segment Type0)TotalLanes

One-WayEvacuation

Lanes Capacity(

U.S. 101

State Route 1

State Route 41

State Route 166

State Route 227

Arroyo Grande-

Los Berros Rd

San Luis Obispo-Atascadero

San Luis Obispo-Santa Maria

San Luis Obispo-Cayucos

Cayucos-Cambria

Pismo Beach

Pismo Beach-Grover Beach

Grover Beach-Nipomo

Nipomo-Guadalupe

Morro Bay-Atascadero

Nipomo (east)

San Luis Obispo-

Arroyo Grande

Arroyo Grande-Nipomo

A

3,600

3,600(')

1,000

1,000

1,000

Avila Rd

Old Creek Rd

Los Osos Valley Rd

Orcutt Rd

South Bay Blvd

Avila Beach-U.S. 101

Cayucos-Route 46

Los Osos-San Luis Obispo

Arroyo Grande-

San Luis Obispo

Los Osos-Morro Bay

1,000

1,200

1,000

1,000

Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, November 1992.

(t)F-Freeway/Expressway, R-Rual Highway, A-Urban ArteriaL( )Vehicles per hour (vph), in assumed usage during evacuation (only capacity).

( )3,000 vph in City of San Luis Obispo and Mono Bay.

45

Chapter 7

EVACUATIONTIME ESTIMATES

There are two distinct events which are necessary to initiate the evacuation. One event is

the direct notification of public agencies, schools, and institutions requiring special

evacuation considerations. The second event is the dissemination of the evacuation warning

to the general population. Both of these events must include instructions regarding the

sectors to be evacuated. The Qrst event is assumed to be accomplished by telephone from

the various emergency response organizations to each affected group. The second event

would be initiated by a public warning system, which would combine an acoustical warning

system by sirens, and then be supplemented by instructions over selected broadcast stations.

7.1 Com onents of Evacuation Time

For the general population, the time required to evacuate is comprised of several individual

time components. During an evacuation, each individual would react differently in terms ofactions and speed. Therefore, each of these time components must be considered as a

.distribution of individual time rather than a single, fixed-time increment. The sequence ofactions during an evacuation have been formulated to reflect those actions which may be

expected from the majority of the population. The evacuation time components used in this

analyses are as follows:

1. Recei t of Notification - The time required for the general population within the

affected area to receive notiflcation of evacuation once the public alerting is initiated

by the local authorities.

2. Return to Home - The time required for persons to return to their homes, if not

already at home, prior to their evacuation of the area. This also reflects the time

required to close up business and places of work.

3. De arture from Home - Once home, the time required to assemble family members,

to pack essential items for the evacuation, and to secure the home prior to their

leaving.

4. Evacuation Travel Time - Once underway, the time required for the population to

travel out of the affected area.

46

'

\ 1" 4

Each evacuation time components be expressed graphically as a normal distribution curve

where the height of any given point along the curve represents the percentage of the

population completing that particular public response component at a given point in time.

The response time curves representing the Qrst three cDmponents, when combined, form the

mobilization time distribution. Mobilization time is that period between the initial

evacuation notification and the time the person(s) leaves home. It is the mobilization time

distribution which controls the rate at which vehicles enter onto the evacuation roadway

network.

7.2 Notification and Pre aration Times for General Public

In this study, three different mobilization distributions were developed, two to represent

daytime public response on a normal'weekday and on a peak weekend day, respectively, and

a third to reflect a nighttime response. Public responses during the daytime scenarios would

differ somewhat for transients (tourists/beach visitors, workers) and residents. For example,

residents and some tourists registered in local hotels/motels would return home prior to

evacuating; whereas many transient beach visitors and non-local workers would begin

evacuating immediately. The individual and combined public response curves are illustrated

in Figures 7 and 8 for the daytime and nighttime conditions respectively.

The public response time information was combined with the actual travel time needed to

travel from their origin point within the BEPZ to the BEPZ boundary. These total

evacuation times are discussed below.

7.3 Site Area Emer en

A site area emergency is characterized by events involving actual or likely major failures of*

plant functions needed for protection of the public. Although emergency actions involving

members of the public may not be necessary, emergency response organizations will be

mobilized. The Low Population Zone (LPZ) in the Power Plant vicinitymay be evacuated.

For Diablo Cariyon Power Plant, this is the area inside the six-mile distance ring, consisting

of Protective Action Zones (PAZ) 1 and 2. Montana De Oro State Park, the beach area

of the community of Avila Beach/Port San Luis, Pismo State Beach and Oceano County

Campground may be evacuated as a precaution and schools downwind from the plant would

be closed or evacuated.

47

«0 4 k

z0

~ Ooo O-

W

O

80

60

40

20

0

Lu

Lu

I

gV

@0

1-Receive

Warning

2-ReturnHome

3.leaveHome

1+2+3Mobilization

5 10 15

24 Sg 90'

8 28

2 5 8

15 30 4$

4 19

20 2$

91 96

56 82

11 14

60 75

47 750

30

17

35 40

96 100

33 50

Timctn

105120

99 100

4$ SO 5$ 60

66 82 91 100

tAss Thsa Oae Pcrceal

(I) Mtaatas atter akrt

Daytime RcsponscCumuhtive Pcrccnt of Popuhtlon Completing Response by Ehpsed Time

Elapsed Timct0

15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135

ELAPSED TIME IN MINUTES

ESTIMATED DAYTIMERESPONSE

CCrr'IN,

Figure 7

~e + ~ ~

z0

0UJS

O

80

60

40

20

CO

LO

I

0+

gV

@0

1-Rcccive Warning

2.Leave Home

24

10 1$ 20

52 87 92

18 34 50 67

30 35 40

100

Ehpscd Timct0

15 30 4$ 60 75 90 105 120

Nlghtlme Rcsponsc

CumuLstlvc Percent of Populathn Completing Response by Etaspcd Time

Elapsed Tlmct0

0

1+2 Mobilization

(I) Mtaates aller atert

1553 88 98 100 100 100 100

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

ELAPSED TIME IN MINUTES

ESTIMATED NIGHTTIMERESPONSE

Figure 8

All events within this classification are situations where release of radioactive materials to

the environment is imminent or actually underway. Protective actions, possibly involving

evacuation, will be necessary. Upon notification of a general emergency, emergency

response personnel will be mobilized. Early Warning System sirens willbe sounded and

protective action instructions willbe broadcast over the Emergency Broadcast System.

7.5 Alternative Evacuation Conditions

Depending on the specific nature of the emergency and the overall assessment of the

situation, and recognizing such factors'as anticipated time interval to release, meteorological

conditions and the other pertinent factors, evacuation measures may be initiated either for

various sectors of the area or for the entire BEPZ. For this analysis, evacuation time

estimates were made for a total of nine different groupings of PAZs representing various

sectors of the BEPZ. Principal and secondary evacuation routes considered in the

evacuation time assessment for each of the evacuation scenarios are illustrated in Figures

9-1 through 9-9. Each scenario was investigated to determine the estimated evacuation time

for each of the three time conditions (normal weekday peak summer weekend day, and

nighttime) under fair weather conditions. The normal weekday condition was also evaluated

for an assumed adverse weather condition. In this case, roadway capacities were reduced

by 15 percent to simulate the altered travel conditions.

7.6 Estimated Evacuation Times

Results of the analyses of evacuation time requirements for each evacuation scenario and

time condition are given in Table 13. It is assumed that traffic control authorities willaccord

priority access to buses and other high-occupancy vehicles (wheelchair vans, ambulances,

etc.) required to make multiple evacuation trips. It is estimated that this procedure willenable the evacuation of persons requiring supplementary transportation to be completed

within the time required for a general evacuation.

50

j I

Table 13

Evacuation Time Estimates

By Scenario and Condition

Evacuation Scenario Evacuation Condition

Number Sector PAZs

Normal

Weekday

Peak

Weekend Night(t)Adverse

Weather( )

(Evacuation Time in Hours)

Base

North-A (limited)

(1,2)

Base + (5)

2.75(')

3.00(4)

4425(3)

4.50(4)

2.75(3)

3.00(4)

4.25(')

4.50(4)

2.00(3)

2.25(4)

4.00(')

4,25(4)

2.75(3)

3.00(4)

525(')5.50(4)

North-B (an)

East (an)

North & East (all)

Southeast-A (limited)

Southeast-B (limited)

Southeast-C (all)

Entire BEPZ

Base+ (5,9)

Base + (4, 8)

Base + (4,5,8,9)

Base + (3,6,7)

Base + (3,6,7,10,1 1)

Base + (3,6,7,10,11,12)

Base + (3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12)

4.50

7.25'.750

6.50

10.00*

4.50

7.50'.75a

3.25

7.50

10.25*

8.500

2.75

5.75

9.50s

5.50

8.50'0.25'.50

7.25

12.00'1)

Nighttime evacuation was assumed to take place on a summer night, to maximaze the presence of transients.

(2) Adverse weather assumes normal weekday traffic volumes.

(3) Time to dear 10 miles.

(4) Time to dear BEPZ.~ 'Ibis assumes limited diversion of US. 101 NB evacuation vehicles to S.R. 1 NB. With more optimal diversion of US. 101 NB «vacuation vehides to both S.R. 1 NB and US. 101

SB, evacuation times could be reduced by 13 hours (peak weekend) and 2.00 hours (for other conditions).

7.7 NRC Summaries

Table 14 gives the estimated population and number of evacuation vehicles for two-, six-,

and ten-mile distance rings from the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, according to the summaryformat prescribed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. It also shows the evacuation

times both for normal conditions and adverse weather.

7.8 Bottleneck Locations

The computer simulation of the evacuation process resulted in the identification of sev'eral

bottleneck locations in the BEPZ, where traffic demand can be expected to significantlyexceed available capacity during a general evacuation, resulting in lengthy vehicle queues and

delays. These are shown in Figures 10 and 11 for the Normal Weekday and Peak Weekend

Day conditions, respectively. They are generally well known to local transportation officialsas trouble-spot locations.

Delays can be expected at access points to U,S. 101 in San Luis Obispo, and along U.S. 101

on the Cuesta grade. South Bay Boulevard is another bottleneck, due to limited roadwaycapacity. California Route 1 in the Morro Bay area is also expected to be a delay location.

In the southern portion of. the BEPZ, delays are also indicated through the Five Cities areaon both U.S. 101 and California Route 1.

52

l"t„

Table 14

Estimated Populations, Vehicle Demand

and Evacuation Times by Evacuation Area

Peak Summer Weekend Day, 1990

Evacuation Area/PAZResident

Population

Transient

Population

TotalPopulation

Resident

Vehicles

Transient

Vehicles

TotalEvacuating

Vehicles

Estimated

Cumulative

Evacuation Time

(Hours) NormalWeather

Estimated

Cumulative

Evacuation Time

(Hours)Adverse

Weather(t)

2 Mile/1

0-2 Mile Total

0-2 Mile Total

6 Mile/2 2,600

Within 2 Mlles

304

Within 6 Miles

59 840

303

303

303

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

0-6 MileTotal 2,900 3,004 62 1,140 1,202 2.75 2.75

Within 8-10 Miles

06 MileTotal

Avila, San Luis Bay/3

See Canyon, Los Osos Valley,

Prefumo Canyon/4

Bayvtood, Los Osos/5

0-10 Mile Total

3,151

1,174

15,290

19,719

320

8,720

3,004

8,651

1,174

15,610

28,439

62

1,745

494

7,467

9,768

1,140

1,990

3,255

1,202

3,735

494

13,023

2.75

2.75

2.75

4.50

4.50

2.75

2.75

2.75

5.50

5.50

~ 'I

Table 14 cont.

Table 14

Estimated Populations, Vehicle Demand

nnd Evacuation Times by Evacuation Area

Peak Summer Weekend Day, 1990

Evacuatfon Area/PAZResident

Populatfon

Transient

Population

TotalPopulation

Resident

Vehicles

Transient

Vehicles

TotalEvacuating

Vehfcles

Estimated

Cumulative

Evacuation Time(Hours) NormalWeather

Estimated

Cumulative

Evacuation Time

(Hours) Adverse

Weather(t)

Within BEPZ Boundary

0-10 Mile Total

City of Pismo Beach/6

Indian Knob, Price Canyon/7

San Luis Obispo/8

Morro Bay, Cayucos/9

Five Cities

(Southern Port fon)/)0

Orcutt Rd., Lopez 13rfve,

Route 227/11

Nipomo, North ofWillowRoad/12

0-BEPZ Boundary

19,719

7,669

51,173

12,949

31,848

2,615

4,687

130,828

8,720

16,250

2,070

9,810

21,525

230

58,605

28,439

23,919

53,243

22,759

53+73

2,615

4,917

189,433

9,768

5@58

67

20,153

7/4)

15,503

61,560

3,255

6,295

1,380

3,495

7,690

175

22,290

13,023

11,653

67

2)$33

10,836

23,193

~67

83,850

450

4.50

4.50

7.75

9.25

10.00

10.00

10.25

10.25

5.50

5.50

5.50

)).00

11.75

j).75

(t) Advene lvea(her.aaaumea normal weekday tranic votnmeh

APPENDIX A

AGENCIES CONTACTED

66

TABLEA-1Contacts and Acknowledgements

A en ata Source Date s Contacted

1)

2)3)4)'5)

6)

7)

8)

9)10)

11)

12)

13)

14)

PaciQc Gas & ElectricSan Luis Obispo County OfGce of Emergency Services

California Highway PatrolCaltrans District 5

San Luis Obispo County Engineering DepartmentCalifornia Department of Parks and RecreationSan Luis Obispo County OfGce of the Superintendent

of Schools

Private Schools (identiGed in'Table'6b)Acute Care Hospitals (identiGed in Table 7)Convalescent Hospitals/Centers (identiGed in Table 7)Residential Care Facilities (identiGed in Table 7)Chamber of Commerce offices in San Luis Obispo,

Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach, Pismo Beach, &Morro BayESSEX CorporationMedcom Ambulance Service

10/92 through 1/93

11/91 through 12/92

3/92

11/91, 11/92

11/91, 11/92

11/91

11/91, 11/92, 1/93

1/92, 10/92

12/91, 10/92

12/91, 10/92

12/91, 10/92

11/91, 8/92, 1/93

9/91

12/92

67

0

0

APPENDIX B

DESCRIPTIONS OF MMOR EVACUATIONROUTESMAPS OF LOCALEVACUATIONROUTES

68

~Ma c: Evacuation Routes

Due to the sparseness of the road system in the*County, essentially all State Highways and

U.S. 101 serve as major evacuation routes. Key local evacuation routes connect to the

through routes. Traffic control points are designated according to their importance fordirecting traffic during an evacuation.

State Route 1 between San Luis Obispo and Morro Bay will operate with traffic inboundto San Luis Obispo from Baywood/Los Osos. In many instances it would not be desirable

to have traffic from San Luis Obispo directed north on Route 1 (either due to a windcondition or to an evacuation being conducted in coastal areas north of the plant), althoughthis route could be available.

San Luis Obispo traffic will be directed'to four key northbound on-ramps to U.S. 101

(Monterey Street, California Boulevard, Osos Street, and Madonna Road).

Evacuees from Avila Beach willtravel north on U.S. 101. Pismo Beach could have available

U.S. 101 going north for the Shell Beach area, and Price Canyon Road for the portionnortheast of U.S. 101, as well as the prime southerly routes U.S. 101 and State Route 1.

Similarly, some traffic from the portion of Arroyo Grande northeast of U.S. 101 would beable to evacuate to the north on State Route 227. However, the majority of vehicles fromArroyo Grande would use U.S. 101 to the south.

The California Highway Patrol willcoordinate control of evacuation traffic throughout theBasic Emergency Planning Zone to provide optimum usage of available capacity.

69

n

"00< OrQJ

~cificQcean

MAJOR ROADWAYCONTROL POINT

~ MINOR ROADWAYCONTROL POINT

WRECKER STATION

CAR LESS COLLECT lON PO tNT

ro*o < PO, /rp

CayucosVeterans Hall

c,

fVhaleRock Reservoir

+~0Lo

CAYUCOS'G

gF54ono Co Poco<l g+r Corll.

o"

MORROSTRAXOSTATE REACH gag

~ " P e

CDF Fire Station

rrr l000'ori

'4lae 'IWaa

0 r~crn~ ~ or ro Arorro Err

CAYUCOS.

LOCAL EVACUATIONROUTES

(Sheet I Of7)

July 1991

70 Figure 9-1

olso

I1

/s,

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sroess4 4 sr ss l.

Deo

MORRO STRAND .:, - ~.".', w~ Dei Mar SchoolSTATE BEACH

I,',,1'

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Peer1000'000'000'iles

0 KslOmererrAms.

.50vmIrsms.

I m

g MAJOR ROADWAYCONTROL POINT.

~ MINOR ROADWA'YCONTROL POINT

WR EC KE R.STATION

CARLESS COLLECTION POINTS

oll

E~Young's Market

,I~ l

Morro Bay High'isssom

+%sr oil

41

4s ro0 soosooo

N

s'.',P~SO

4~d

r0 O ~ MORRO''~.BAY

4Morro Elementery School

4 I~se

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MORRO '1 11~~//

I BAY L 1r //I I / ~

MORRO BAYSTATE PARK

MORRO BAY

LOCALEVACUATIONROUTES

( Sheet 2 of 7 )71

July 1991

Figure B-2

~ I

I II IIi I)

II

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I ~("I

Church

II'I I

e,,i a

/I i\ ii

rt fQORCO

-~; /PRIMARY

PresbyterianI

CtI

i.~ iI

C

/I:/

Methodist Church

I

)0 ~~a 4":;, Vgl 4 C ~

~vtSFA Fl'ass

Coir COERCE~ r ac

j t-" 50$ 0505 f

~ trtXa ~I

~

0tta

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a

tarll 4} 4haiaaaar t~ I 0

> 0rt

Q IIICa teaCOC ~

BAYWOOD '.PARK

>+0~iq

lia la4

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Wilham Bros Shopping Center0 vc Lvr 4 rr

'"ba~ - .'——Ce '

aret

-.tat

l 0

:lta

4IIIFa

:il0 k rr

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i'5

-9~ l

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STATE PARK~ ,I

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Cravat I,Oi C~laCI

+v Ct~ 4 t Sr'

LOS OSOS .i '"'.„<,

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asr a aire. 40 iI,Q. ~ 't

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~ w i t( tcac

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~ w

5

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I: lriCar t rarta ea

~ MA OR ROADWA CONTROL POINT

~ MINOR ROADWAYCONTROL POINT

WRECKER STATION

CAR LESS COLLECTION POINT

BAYWOOD/LOS OSOS

LOCALEVACUATIONROUTES

Sheet 3 of. 7

July 1991

i+a~72

Figure B-3

k+ g 4l'

~ ~

(

Cal PolyTrack/Baseball Area

S tate Route 1- (Use may be limited)

I t1

Cal Poly~ i4,'.'-'4J.'arking Lot H-4 J

CAI OORiiIA rOLYTLCN'ilcSTATC lc4IYLRIiITY': - .. ~ Cal Poly

Mustang Stadiumi

I — ' "' ' ":="> US/101 (Preferred route)

~-&101 Ni

44

iamps

to be closed'ter

~J irI~ I

),Ih -'-—r j., —, "a.=.P. II

\ ILucky's

~ Shopping Cer}

rans Building

SAN LUISOBISPO

Los Osos Valley Road(From Baywood/Los Osos

Mission San Luis iI)bispo~ .

J<g i~rc

oft rr

~4

'L.i ~ 4, L P]

Laurel LaneShopping Center

/ Laguna LakeGolf Course/Clubhouse

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LOCALEVACUATIONROUTES(Sheet 7 of 7)

July 1991

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LOCATION MAPSAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY STATE PARKS

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LOCAL EVACUATIONROUTES

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LOCAL EVACUATIONROUTES79

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Pacific Ocean

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*ALTERNATEEVACUATIONROUTE TO THESOUTH VIAOSO FLACO ROAD LIMITED

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PISMO BEACH STATE PARK AND VEHICLE RECREATION AREA

LOCAL EVACUATION ROUTES FIGURE B-11b81

APPENDIX C

SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS INPROTECTIVE ACTION ZONES

82

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and Hospitals

In Protective Action Zones

Schools Hospitals/ResidentialCare Facility

Diablo Canyon PG&EPlant Site

None None

Diablo Canyon

Avila Area

Los Osos Valley Area

Los Osos-

Baywood Park Area

None

Belview-Santa Fe Elementary

San Luis Bay Dr. & See Canyon Rd.

None

Los Osos Middle'School

1555 El Morro St.

Sunnyside School

880 Manzanita Dr.

Baywood Elementary School

1330 9tll St.

Monarch Grove Elementary School

348 Los Osos Valley Road

None

None

None

Threlkeld Family Home

1429 14til St

Threlkeld Family Home

253 Montana Way

Private Schools

Pine Tree School

1114 El Morro Ave.

6 & 7 Pismo Beach Area

Sand Castle Pre-School

1390 4th St.

Sonshine Pre-School

1900 Los Osos Valley Rd.

Village Childrens Center

490 Los Osos Valley Rd.

Shell Beach Elementary

2100 Shell Beach Rd.

Judkins Middle School

680 Wadsworth St.

None

83

Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and Hospitals

In Protective Action Zones

PAZ Schools Hospitals/ResidentialCare Facility

6&7

(cont.)

San Luis Obispo Area

Private Schools

New Life Pre-School

990 James Way

YMCAChildern's Center

340 Pomeroy Ave.

Happy Cooperative Preschool1091 Bello St.

Bishops Peak

451 Jaycee Dr.

Teach Elementary375 Ferrini

Hawthorne School

2125 Story St.

Laguna Middle School

11050 Los Osos Valley Rd.

Los Ranchos School

5785 Los Ranchos Rd.

Pacheco Elementary

165 Grand Ave.

Pacific Beach High Scool

1950 Los Osos Valley Rd.

San Luis Obispo High School

1350 California Blvd.

Sinsheimer School

2775 Augusta St.

Smith (CL) School

1375 Balboa St.

San Luis General Hospital2180 Johnson Ave.

Sierra Vista Hospital1010 Murrary Ave.

Cabrillo Care Center

3033 Augusta

HillHaven Care Center

1425 Woodside Dr.

De Groots Nursing Home

1015 Buchon St.

Casa De Vida

879 Meinecke

San Luis Obispo Adult Education

1530 Lizzie St.

84

Ag

4

Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and Hospitals

In Protective Action Zones

Schools Hospitals/ResidentialCare Facility

8

(cont.)

Private Schools

Alto Vista School

1534 Lizzie St.

Dayspring Christian School

525 Cerro Romauldo

Los Verdes Montessori School

4200 S. Higuera St.

Mission College Prepatory

682 Palm St.

Old Mission School

761 Broad

San Luis Christian Academy

51 Foothill Blvd.

Foothill Pre-School

317 Foothill Blvd.

Johnson Ave. Pre-School

2075 Johnson Ave.

Southwood Christian School

3396 Johnson Ave.

United Methodist Children Center

1515 Fredericks

Zion Christian School

1010 Foothill Blvd.

Morro Bay-

Cayucos AreaDel Mar School

501 Sequoia

Morro Bay High School

235 Atascadero Rd.

Seashell Communities

SR 1 & S. Bay Blvd.

Ocean View2803 Ocean Blvd.

Morro Bay Elementary

1130 Monterrey Ave,

Lillian Guest Home1264 Bolten Dr.

85

4

V

Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

LIsting of Schools and HospitalsIn Protective Action Zones

Schools Hospitals/ResidentialCare Facility

9

(cont.)

Cayucos Elementary School

301 Cayucos Dr.

Private Schools

Roandoak of God Christian Academy

455A Chorro Creek Rd.

The HuntingtonSR 1 & S. Bay Blvd

10 Arroyo Grande-GroverCity-Oceano Area

Estero Bay Childrens Center

685 Montery Avenue

Estero Bay Day School

853 Quintana Rd.

Arroyo Grande High School

495 Valley Rd.

Grover City Elementary365 S. 10th St.

Arroyo Grande Community345 Halcyon Rd.

Arroyo Grande Care Center

1212 Farroll Ave.

Lopez Continuation School

1221 Ash St.

North Oceano Elementary2101 The Pike

Oceano Elernentaty17th St. & Wilmar

Alder Guest Home295 Alder St.

Oak Park Manor1073 Old Oak Park Rd.

Patio Home Care

222 South Elm

Oceano View Elementary1208 Linda

Paulding Middle School

600 Crown St.

Grover Heights Elementary770 N. 8th St.

Branch Elementary970 School Rd.

Mesa Elementary2555 Halcyon Rd.

Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and Hospitals

In Protective Action Zones

PAZ Area Schools Hospitals/Residential

Care Facility

10

(cont.)

Harloe Elementary

901 Fair Oaks Ave.

Private Schools

Central Coast Christian Academy

227 Bridge St.

St. Patrick's Parochial School

900 W. Branch St.

Valley View Seventh-Day

Adventist Jr. Academy

230 Vernon AveLighthouse�'Christian

School

497 Fair Oaks Blvd.

Dandy Lion Pre-school

1089 Bader Ave.

Carmelita Child Development Center

512 S. 13Th

Discovering A Child's Place

1475 Trouville Ave.

Las Lomas Childrens Center

250 Wesley St.

Little Oaks Pre-School

900 Oak Park Blvd.

Open Door Church Pre-School

1911 Ocean

Peace Christian School

244 Oak Park Blvd.

Peter Pan Children's Center

15S7 El Camino Real

Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and EIospitals

In Pr'otective Action Zones

PAZ Schools Hospitals/Residential'are Facility

10

(cont.)

Small World Christian Pre-School

207 Pilgrim Way

Arroyo Grande Montessori216 Oak

Coastal ChristianAchievement School

2865 S. Ocean Blvd.

North Rural ArroyoGrande

Coastal ChristianAchievement School

207 Pilgrim Way

None None

12 Nipomo Mesa (North) Mesa Elementary School

255 Halcyon Rd.

None

88

0

APPENDIX D

EVACUATIONTIME ASSESSMENT

PROGRAM METHODOLOGY

89

4

APPENDIX D

EVACUATIONTIMEASSESSMENT

PROGRAM METHODOLOGY

The evacuation time assessment was performed in two separate packages of computer

programs. The general flow of these packages is illustrated in Figure D-1.

Build Evacuation Network - This portion of the program is accomplished utilizing the

link/node descriptions from Evacuation Route development task. The computer program,

utilizing well-established principles, was extracted from an in-house program, TRANSIT,

which was basically created for transit route development. It organizes the input data and

it assembles link data such as distance, speed, hourly capacity, and queuing capacity.

Assi ment of Vehicles to Each Centroid - Using centroid population and car occupancy

inputs, the user computes vehicle volumes to be evacuated and assigns these volumes to

each centroid. Remaining steps are also computed in the evacuation time assessment

routine.

Public Res onse Time Distributions - Since the predicted volume of vehicles entering the

network from each centroid is a function of various public response times to the evacuation

warning, it is necessary to establish quantification of these responses by certain assumed

conditions. Three public response time distributions were combined to assess evacuation

times under the four scenarios - summer weekday, nighttime, peak summer weekend, and

adverse weather conditions.

D'etermination of Mobilization Time - Mobilization time is defined as that period between

the issuance of the evacuation warning and the time taken for the last vehicle to leave any

centroid under the specified scenario conditions.

Time Distribution of Traffic Volumes on the Evacuation Network - The traffic volumes

previously assigned to each centroid are then distributed onto the network imcrementally as

determined by the combined public response distributions.

Ca aci Dela Anal sis - The capacity delay analysis is performed in the assessment

program by the four time increments determined in the above step. It is based upon the

rudimentary principle of queuing —which is, if the input to a network element during a

specified time period exceeds the service capacity of that element, a queue of input vehicles

is formed and a delay is generated to those vehicles in the queue. These vehicles must be

added to the input of the next interval and compared to the service capacity to determine

90

EVACUATIOH

UNKtMODE

DESCRIPRON

UNKDESCRIPTIONS

LENGTH,

AVEAAGESPEED,

CAPACfiY

CENTROID

POPULATION

AVERAGEVEHICLE

OCCUPANCY

PUBUC

AESPONSE TIME

DISllliaUTIOHReceive Warning

PUBUC

RESPOHSETIME

DISTRIBUTION

Evacuate Home

PUBUC

AESPOHSEllMEDISTAIBUllON

Travel Work-Home

Build

EVACUATIONNHWOAKCompute

VEHICLES FOR EACH CENlHOID

AssignVBIICLESTO HHWOAK

ComputeCOMBINEDTIMEDISTAIBUllON

Distribute

NHWORKVOLUMES

BYTIMEINCREMENTS

Perform

CAPACITYDElAYAHALYSIS

CENTAOIDTOEXTERNALHODE

Determine

DELAYllME .FOA EACH NHWORKUHK

KALWWNNlI%%%%CNNJf

volBun sLurN AssocArss

DetermineTol'ALDELAYTIME

DetermineTOTALEVACUATIOHTIME

Figure D-1BASIC FLOV/ DIAGRAM

Diablo Canyon Power PlantEvacuation Time Assessment Update

J» ~

if another queue is formed at the end of that interval. The process is con 'nued until all

vehicles to be serviced have passed through the element.

For example, consider the processing of a sequence of intervals where the input of the

second and third intervals exceeds capacity. After a Qrst interval when input is less than

capacity, all vehicles are served with no delay and no queue is formed (Q1=0). However,

when input during the second interval exceeds the capacity, a queue of vehicles, Q2, results.

This volume is therefore added to the input of the third interval, which then again exceeds

capacity. At the end of this period a queue of Q3 vehicles remains. These vehicles, are

added to the input of vehicles during the fourth interval. Because that volume exceeds

capacity, a number of vehicles, Q4, remains at end of that period. This queue must then be

dissipated at a rate equivalent to the link's capacity. A delay of TD is required for this

discharge and must be added to the four time increments to obtain the total time for the

entire volume to pass through the link.

It is important to note that this process has "metered" the input to equal the link capacity.

As the traffic proceeds to the next link of the evacuation route, its input is at the rate

commensurate to the previous link's capacity. Ifno additional volume has been assigned to

the subsequent link and that link has the same capacity as the upstream link, no additional

delay is experienced.

Ifeither the capacity or volume of the downstream link is different, the analysis procedure

must be repeated, using the respective input volumes and capacity of that link.

Determination of Dela Times for Each Link - The evacuation routes for each centroid are

analyzed using the delay analysis technique described above. The delays, ifany, are assigned

to each of the links. Previous delays for any link resulting from the analysis of another

centroid for the same link are compared in the program. Appropriate adjustments to each

link delay are made by the program and the proper delay assigned.

Determination of Link Travel Times - Travel times for each link are computed by the

assessment program using the link distance and the anticipated link operating speed inputs.

These travel times assume no capacity delays. Therefore, when the travel time for a link is

added to the proper delay time, the actual speed for the link is represented.

92

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Zone includes

IdentifNd residences. lsotstedhtt areas

tdentilttd reskttncts. ptshc access ros4 upcNIsegments ol See Canyan snd Presume Canyon Aos4Monl444 de Ofo State POP. isokted his att4$

Arits Beach. Port San Lvis. Pirate's Cote. SsnLun Bay Estalee. Awla ROS4 San Lu'N Bey Dltrt.See Canyon Rood out skit ttN dwluTt Dm t. Scyttre~nd Gr sag C4hyans, Sunset PSSSsdes

Prefumo Canyon Road outsktt tlN Ct-mge SkhtkLos Osos Vs say Road between Tvnl Aoad and Foottub

Bsywoad Park. Los Osoh Tunt Road. Los OsosVasey ROad wtsl Of Tvrri AOad, Clark Vattty

City ol Pismo Beach. Short Beach south olSpyglass Drive (tnctudhg Sdjscent beschesl

Ph'Ce C4htcn Road ohd isolated hst areas horthol Pisttlo Beach

Gty ol San Luis Obispo. Cal Poly. COSSamta Men'Cokny. Camp San Less Obspo. Cuesta Ccpege.CyConnor Way.nrcutt Aoed north d East Canalde Piers Creek, Edna. Covntry Gluts CreslmcnlDrive and Daltehport Ct«k ara

Acute l west d Cuesta College Mano BsyCayucos. Whak Aock Restnoit area

Cityd Anoyo Grande. City of Grover Beach.Oceste. Hskyon and Pismo State B«ch

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H'stoma M«o north ol wgiaw RO44 csshtga Valley.Pismo Slate DNNS Rccrestkhet Vehkk Arts

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~ The NRC/FEiVAA zones are based upon a-10-mile zone with 16 sectors subtending 22,5

degrees of arc and distance rings of 2, 5, and 10 miles. However, the County of San Luis

Obispo and the California OES adopted a somewhat larger area called the Basic Emergency

Planning Zone (BEPZ). The BEPZ is divided into 12 irregularly shaped Protective Action

Zones (PAZ) which reflect the coastline, the mountainous areas, and the population centers.

Beyond the BEPZ is a Public Education Zone. This zone receives information about the

Diablo Canyon Power Plant on a semi-annual basis.

The BEPZ and the PAZs in this evacuation time assessment are depicted in Figure 3.

1.4.1 BEPZ Po ulation

A summary of current resident population and number of dwelling units by zone is given in' "'"- . Table 1, compared, with 1985 figures. For the entire 12-zone BEPZ, 1990 population totals

estimated 130,828 persons, an increase of 8.6 percent over the 1985 total. The number of

dwelling units went up from 44,781 to 55,055 over the period, an increase of about 22.9

percent.

A comparison of 1990 and 1985 figures by zone reveals that growth was not uniform

throughout the BEPZ. Within the two-mile ring, no new dwelling units were recorded since

1985. Between two and six miles, some five new dwellings were built. Approximately 2,500

new dwellings each were built in zones eight and 10 in areas of relatively rapid growth.

Between 700 and 950 new homes were recorded in each of zones 3, 5 and 9, while slower

growth (approximately 500 or less) occurred in zones 4, 7, 11, and 12.

Actual transient population consists of visitors to the BEPZ area, such as tourists and

beachgoers, plus workers and students who live outside the BEPZ. The peak transient

population occurs within the BEPZ during summer weekends and holidays. During these

periods, considerable numbers of persons from outside the BEPZ visit the beach recreation

areas. Also included in the transient population component are employees who work within

the BEPZ, but reside outside. A summary of estimated 1990 transient population by

protective action zone and evacuation condition is presented in Table 2. The estimated

BEPZ transient population on the peak summer weekend day in 1990 was 44,265.

Since 1990 transient population figures are not readily available from the 1990 Census data

(or any other local or regional agency) in a format which was useable in this study, it was

necessary for WSA to develop these estimates. Year 1990 transient population estimates

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Morlo Bay/Cayucos Route 1 west of Cuesta College, Morro Bay,Cayucos, Whale Rock Reservoir area

Five Cities . City of Arroyo Grande, City of Grover Beach,(southern ~ron) 0 eano H lcyonandprsmo State B ch

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Nipomo north Nipomo Mesa north of WillowRoad, Cienega Valley,of WillowRoad Pisrno State Dunes Recreational Vehicle Area

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Old Creek Road isolated hill areas north and east of Cayucos andMorro Bay within 20 miles of the plant

9305 $ 00 0 4.6- ggEmergency Pllanning Zones Figure 3

IIIII

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Table 1

BEPZ Population and Dwelling Units

1990 vs. 1985

Protective Action Zone

1 2-Mile

Residential Population

1985<t> 1990<>> Ratio (1990/1985)'

4

Dwelling Units

1985<t) 1990<2> Ratio (1990/1985)

3 3

2 6-Mile

3 Avila/San Luis Bay/See Canyon/Squire Canyon

4 Prefumo Canyon/Los Osos Valley

5 Baywood/Los Osos

6 City of Pismo Beach

7 Indian Knob/Price Canyon

8 San Luis Obispo Area

9 Morro Bay/Cayucos

10 Five Cities, Southern Portion

11 Orcutt Road/Lopez Drive/Route 227

12 Nipomo North of WillowRoad

BEPZ Total

96 100

1,921 3,151

406 1,174

13,634 15,290

5,599 7,669

79 168

48,914 51,173

15,185 12,949

27,400 31,848

2,832 2,615

4,424 4,687

120,494 130,828

2.89

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1.37

2.13

1.05

0.85

1.16

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46 51

778 1,515

152 419

5,492 6,437

2,828 4,548

36 59

15,474 17,803

7,032 7,979

10,448 13,194

950 994

1,542 2,053

44,781 55,055

1.95

2.76

1.17

1.61

1.15

1.13

1.05

1.33

Source: (1) From PG&E Land Department, September, 1985.

(2) From PG&E Land Department, September, 1991.

Note: BEPZ denotes Basic Emergency Planning Zone.

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Table 2

Estimated Transient Population, 1990

Evacuation Condition

1 2-Mile

2 6-Mile

Protective Action ZoneNormal

Weekday

1,500

1,100

Peak Summer

Weekend

300

2,000

Nighttime

300

250

3 Avila/San Luis Bay/See Canyon/Squire Canyon

4 Prefumo Canyon/Los Osos Valley

5 Baywood/Los Osos

6 'ityof Pismo Beach

7 Indian Knob/Price Canyon

8 San Luis Obispo Area

9 Morro Bay/Cayucos

10 Five Cities, Southern Portion

2,300

150

3,000

1,635

4,000

4,835

5,500

320

6,900

2,070

9,800

17,125

450

30

2,250

1,785

1,650

2,800

11 Orcutt Road/Lopez Drive/Route 227

12 Nipomo North of WillowRoad

BEPZ Total

230

18,750

250

44,265

335

9,850

Source: Estimates developed by Wilbur Smith Associates based on California Department of Parks and Recreation 1990

Visitor/Attendance Reports and local Chamber of Commerce information.

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are based on several sources of information including: the previously developed 1985

transient population figures; 1990 California Department of Parks and Recreation

Visitor/Attendance Report; local Chamber of Commerce published material; and local field

investigations.

Based on our investigation, the beachgoers component of the transient population was found

to clearly represent a major portion of the total transients potentially present within the

BEPZ on a normal weekday or peak summer weekend. Since California Department of

Parks and Recreation visitor/attendance data does not distinguish between local and non-

local visitors, it was conservatively assumed that all beachgoers were part of the transient

population. In the 1990 transient estimates, beachgoers represent 61 percent and 82 percent

of the Normal Weekday and Peak Summer Weekend condition transient population

estimates respectively. For the Nighttime condition, the transient population is estimated

to consist primarily of tourists/visitors staying overnight at area motels/hotels and RV parks.

In this case, transients at local lodging/RV parks represent approximately 61 percent of the

total transients, while beachgoers (campers) represent less than 20 percent.

1.5 Ma or Trans ortation Facilities,

'I The'egional highway network comprises the primary transportation facilities in an

emergency evacuation. These are shown in Figure 2. Two major routes —U.S. Route 101

and California Route 1 —are primary elements of the roadway system. U.S. 101 is

constructed to fr'eeway standards through most of the BEPZ, as a four-lane divided roadway

with grade separation. Proceeding northward from San Luis Obispo, U.S. 101 climbs a steep

grade about five miles long to the Cuesta Pass. This segment, and some further to the

north, are constructed to expressway standards with some at-grade intersections.

California Route 1 north of San Luis Obispo, has been upgraded generally to four-lane

expressway design standards in the BEPZ, with freeway segments in the urban stretches

through Morro Bay and Cayucos. South of its south junction with U.S. 101 in Pismo Beach,

to the Santa Barbara County line, State Route 1 functions as a local street of varying cross-

section and reduced capacity.

Other routes that would be used for evacuation generally have two-lane cross-sections with

lower capacity than the major through routes. These include State Route 227; Price Canyon

Road; Los Berros Road; Los Osos Valley Road; South Bay Boulevard; State Route 41; and

Old Creek Road.

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1.6 Emer en Res onse Plan

This study has been completed in consultation and cooperation with the primary local

response agencies responsible for evacuation planning and implementation within the area.

The evacuation time estimates presented in this study were developed to reflect the plans

and procedures set forth in the relevant emergency response plans which have been

developed and adopted by the various local agencies. These plans deflne the agency

responsibilities, assigned functions, and procedures to be utilized in the event of a

radiological incident at Diablo Canyon Power Plant. The principal plans include:

o San Luis Obispo County/Cities Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan,

July 1991;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan III.20,

Standard Operating Procedure'- California Highway Patrol, San Luis Obispo Area

Office, August 1991;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan,

Standard Operating Procedure - State Department of Parks and Recreation;

o San Luis Obispo County Office of the Superintendent of Schools Emergency

Response Plan;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan,

Standard Operating Procedures - San Luis Coastal Unified School District;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan

Standard Operating Procedure - Lucia Mar Unified School District;

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan,

Standard Operating Procedure - Atascadero Unified School District; and

o San Luis Obispo County Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan,

Standard Operating Procedure - Cuesta College, San Luis Obispo County

Community College District.

10

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Chapter 2

STUDY METHODOLOGY

The evacuation time assessment update made use of a computerized transportation model

package developed by Wilbur Smith Associates (WSA) especially for the purpose of

estimating time requirements and related information for evacuation of large areas and

populations. This model simulates the evacuation traffic conditions, given the public

response characteristics, route capacities, and numbers of evacuating vehicles. The

methodology for applying this computer model to assess the evacuation time requirements

can be divided into five phases: data preparation; development of the evacuation network;

computer processing of the simulation model for various scenarios; analysis of output and

development of findings; and recommendations for reduced evacuation time as may be

appropriate. The work flow for development of the computer network is illustrated in

Figure 4 and summarized in the following section.

2.1 Data Collection

Collection of the data necessary for the evacuation time estimates included the following

efforts:

o Review of pertinent sections of Emergency Response Plans;

o Review and updating of the inventory of existing highway facilities, including

facility type, number of lanes, operating speeds, and traffic controls; and

o Assembly and review of updated information relating to evacuation demand at

recreational facilities, schools, and special institutions within the area.

Contacts were made with state, county and city officials responsible for emergency response

planning. Available data on existing traffic characteristics, transportation facilities, and land

uses were reviewed and supplemented by field reconnaissance observations in the BEPZ.

A list of contacts made during the course of this study are provided in Appendix A.

2.2 Evacuation Route Network Develo ment

The evacuation routes in the BEPZ emergency response plans were used to define an

evacuation roadway network for input to the evacuation time estimate computer model.

11

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DEMOGRAPHICDATA

DEVElOP EPZBASE MAP

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IDENTIFICATIONOF SPECIALPROBLEM

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INPUT TOEVACUATIONTIMEASSESSMENT PROGRAM

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Evacuation Network DevelopmentWork Flow

12Figure 4

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Major evacuation routes throughout the BEPZ are shown in Figure 5. Local evacuation

routes through individual communities and major recreation centers are shown in Appendix

Figures A-1 through A-11.

To develop the computer network, United States Geological Survey quadrangle maps were

used for analysis and distance measurements and were supplemented with local mapping for

detail of more recent development. Abase map was created to illustrate the BEPZ and was

used for mapping the computer network of evacuation routes. Established Protective Action

Zones (PAZ) were analyzed and converted to centroids which represent the zonal activity

center in the network. Centroid connectors are used in the network to represent access to

the evacuation route system. Traffic routing from each centroid to the major evacuation

routes was determined on the basis of directness and available roadway capacity.

2.2.1 Com uter Codin of Roadwa Link ode Descri tions

To employ a computerized network, the roadways to be used as evacuation routes mustbe'efined

as a series of "links" and "nodes". Each "link" represents a specific segment ofroadway which has common geometric features as well as similar operational characteristics.

A pair of "nodes" identifies the limits of each link. Nodes are located wherever evacuation

routes intersect, converge, or change operational characteristics.

Each link was described by the two node numbers; the "A"node at the beginning and the'"B" node at the end of the link. The traffic characteristics of each link in the evacuation

network were determined through map and data review, field reconnaissance, and traffic

engineering analysis. A listing of the link characteristics was prepared, identifying the two

node numbers, the length of the link, the operating speed, and capacity (the number of lanes

times the assigned capacity per lane). Operating speeds and lane capacities reQect average

operating conditions.

2.2.2 Centroid Po ulation and Vehic]es

The numbers of evacuating persons and vehicles estimated for the area represented by each

centroid, consist of two main components —resident and transient populations. The

estimated number of evacuating resident vehicles was derived from updated estimates ofpopulation and dwelling units within each Protective Action Zone in the BEPZ. The

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estimate of transient vehicles recognized employment and visitation records at State beaches

and other sources reflecting in the area tourist activity. Details of these estimates are given

in Chapter 5.

2.2.3 Identification of S ecial Institutions and Recreation Areas

Several population components would require special evacuation consideration. These

include resident population not having access to an automobile and those in special

institutions or locations, such as schools, nursery schools, hospitals, nursing homes, and

transients without vehicles at area beaches. The evacuation requirements for these were

considered by individual analyses, separate from the computer simulation.

2.3 Evacuation Time Assessment Simulation

Ageneral description of the evacuation time assessment computer model is presented below.

A more detailed description of the computer model and procedures involved is presented

in Appendix D.

For each evacuation scenario and condition simulated, the number of trips originating from

each centroid is specified by the user. These trips are loaded onto the network over several

time intervals at a rate corresponding to the estimated composite mobilization time

distribution representing public response time following an evacuation order. This

. mobilization time results from the, combination of individual time distributions to receive the

warning, to travel home (ifnecessary), and to make preparations to leave home. Also input

into the computer program are the routes to be followed by vehicles evacuating from each

centroid.

In the evacuation simulation procedure, the total evacuation period was analyzed in a series

of 15-minute time increments. During each time increment, trips were loaded onto the

computer roadway network from the zone centroid in accordance with the mobilization time

distribution. Each vehicle, or group of vehicles, flows through the network, with progress

along its evacuation route determined initially by the operating speeds assigned to each

roadway link. Where the number of vehicles seeking to use a specific link in a given time

increment exceeds the link capacity, the simulation model begins to register traffic queues

on links approaching the point of constraint. Where queues build up along a route, they

introduce delay time on the constrained link (roadway segment) and on feeder links further

15

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upstream. Each vehicle entering the queue will experience a delay while moving through-

the queuing area. These delays are encountered by all traffic on the congested links, until

the vehicle volumes decrease to a level less than link capacity. Once past the point ofconstraint, the evacuating vehicles resume normal operating speed, until they encounter a

new queue, or reach safety, beyond the evacuation area boundary.

The model produces several kinds of information useful for evaluation. These include the

total evacuation time and distribution of the percentage of trips reaching the BEPZ

boundary by elapsed time from start of evacuation. The above distributions also may be

produced for trips leaving from any specified subareas within the total evacuation area.

Average travel time and delay time is calculated for trips exiting the BEPZ for each

successive time increment within the total evacuation period.

The simulation model can also provide "snapshots" of transport system conditions at

specified moments during the evacuation process. These "snapshots" consist of linkvolume,

queue lengths, average delay by link, and volume-capacity ratios for each link in the system.

16

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Chapter 3

GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS

Several general assumptions were made as part of the process of estimating the numbers of

persons and vehicles which would evacuate. The most significant of these are presented in

the following sections. Supplemental assumptions are identified in subsequent chapters.

3.1 Public Information and Notification

For this study it is assumed that the Early Warning System sirens are used to alert the BEPZ

population, followed by instructions to evacuate through radio and television broadcasts and

public address systems. In the event, an early warning system siren fails to sound the County

will use route alerting using fire or law enforcement personnel.

3 .2 Evacuation ActionsI

The County's Emergency Response Plan identities four Emergency Action Level

Classifications:

o Notification of Unusual Event;o Alert;o Site Area Emergency; and

o General Emergency.

No evacuation action is initiated in response to a Notification of Unusual Event.

An Alert emergency classification level will result in the closing of Montana De Oro State

Park and the beach area of the community of Avila Beach/Port San Luis. School buses willbe dispatched to standby at appropriate schools which may be instructed to evacuate at this

stage under certain conditions.

For a Site Area Emergency, Montana De Oro State Park, Pismo State Beach, Oceano

Campground, and the beach area of the community of Avila Beach/Port San Luis will be

closed. Also, consideration will be given to implementating school evacuation, limitinghospital admissions, and consideration of evacuation of BEP Zones 1 & 2,

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Upon declaration of a General Emergency, the general public willbe notified by activation

of the sirens and instructed about protective actions by means of Emergency Broadcast

System messages. Initial protective actions will involve the six-mile low population zone

(Protective Action Zones 1 and 2),

Since beaches and parks may be closed prior to any need for evacuation by the general

public, a certain number of transients may have left the area early on. To the extent that

this takes place, estimates of evacuation time may be conservative, because they assume that

all persons remain within the area until they are instructed to evacuate.

3.3 Traffic Controls

When the County Direction and Control Group determines an evacuation is imminent,

"external/through traffic traveling on U.S. 101, S.R. 1, S.R, 41, and S.R. 166 willbe diverted

at various locations beyond the perimeter of the BEPZ, Local residents, property owners

and business owners will be allowed to enter the BEPZ to assist with removal of their

families and possessions.

'I'hen an evacuation becomes imminent, California Highway Patrol (CHP) officers will be

dispatched to direct traffic at their assigned posts. Officers willbe assembled and dispatched

according to Standard Operating Procedures established for the specific evacuation scenario.

It is assumed that in the event that sufficient officers are not available to manage all

identified traffic control points, the County Direction and Control Group willdetermine the

most effective use of available resources.

Following notification to evacuate, it is assumed that two-way normal operation of traffic

flows willbe maintained for as long as possible to allow residents to return home and make

preparations to evacuate. It is anticipated that within one to two hours after notification to

evacuate, the prevailing direction of travel would be outbound and one-way traffic control

measures could begin to be implemented, ifwarranted and approved by the Direction and

Control Group.

Current CHP traffic control plans indicate that Caltrans personnel and San Luis Obispo

County Engineering Department would be requested to assist in the implementation oftraffic diversion and trafficcontrol measures including the placement of signs and barricades.

.Additionally, the CHP would mobilize wreckers to designated points in advance of the major

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flow of evacuation traffic. Wreckers would be dispatched.to remove disabled vehicles from

the evacuation roadways and maintain traffic flow.

3.4 Number of Vehicles Evacuatin

The estimated number of vehicles evacuating reflect the following assumptions regarding

occupancy levels:

a. Resident population evacuate using one or more vehicles per household

(depending on vehicle ownership characteristics in each zone). This is estimated

to result in between 2.0 and 3.5 persons per vehicle, on average, for the various

areas, if school-age children are included;

~ .b. Non-resident beach visitors are estimated to average between 2.7 to 3.5 persons

per vehicle; and

c. Non-resident workers, persons staying at area hotels/motels, and visitors to areas

other than the beaches, are estimated to average between 1.0 to 3.0 persons pervehicle.

3.5 Evacuation Route Conditions

A set of evacuation time estimates were developed for the area, based on all evacuation

routes available for, use. The evacuation network and the assumed operating conditions and

capacities are discussed in Chapter 6.

Additional time estimates were made assuming that adverse weather conditions were

present. Adverse weather conditions in this area would most likely be heavy rain or fog.

Such weather conditions are assumed to reduce roadway capacities by 15 percent.

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Chapter 4

ALTERNATIVEEVACUATIONSCENARIOS

(I

An evacuation of part or all of the BEPZ could be initiated at any time. The evacuation

might occur under any of a broad range of seasonal factors involving varying weather

conditions and levels of recreational area activity. As discussed in Chapter 1, and shown in

Table 2, it is estimated that the transient population of up to 44,265 persons may be located

within the area during the daytime on a peak summer weekend.

The season and time of day at which an evacuation is initiated would determine the number

of persons to be evacuated and the time interval required to respond to the evacuation

warning. These factors, then, would influence the total time interval required to evacuate

the area. Therefore, three different time period scenarios were selected for development

of evacuation time estimates. These are:

)

o Daytime on a normal weekday (in late spring or early fall);

o Daytime on a peak summer weekend; and

o Nighttime, on a peak summer weekend.

Warm-weather conditions were chosen for the scenarios, to maximize the estimated transient

population to be evacuated for the time assessment (see Table 13). A fourth scenario, was

also investigated, which reflects and evacuation during adverse weather conditions (rain or

«g).

4.1 Normal Weekday Evacuation

The first scenario investigates an evacuation assumed to occur on a late spring, or early fall

weekday. It is estimated that a substantial number of transients (workers and tourists) would

be present at this time. Recreation facilities such as State Parks and public beaches would

be heavily utilized. This scenario assumes that the evacuation occurs during the midday

period when the maximum number of visitors would be present within the BEPZ.

The evacuation times for schools in the BEPZ have also been included in the weekday time

estimate for special institutions. The time estimates reflect normal school year attendance.

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4.2 Peak Summer Weekend Da Evacuation

In the event that the evacuation takes place on a summer weekend day, a portion of the

evacuees would be non-residents (tourists, workers, and/or beachgoers). On a weekend day,

resident population in the area might be slightly higher than on a weekday when some

residents would be out of the area in connection with their work. In this weekend day

scenario, it was assumed that the evacuation occurred at mid-day when the largest number

of transients, would be in the area. Estimates of beach visitors are based on peak utilization

of State Park and public beaches. The number of visitors at most beach areas on peak days

is limited by the availability of parking.

4.3 Ni httime Evacuation

" In the event that an evacuation takes place at night, the maximum resident population and

the minimum transient population would be in the BEPZ. This scenario assumes the

evacuation warning occurred on a summer evening when most people would be at their

permanent or temporary place of residence.

4.4 Adverse Weather

Adverse weather conditions may occur in the BEPZ which could potentially coincide with

and impede and evacuation, The most probable would be the effects of heavy rainfall or

dense fog. Heavy rainfall is used for this analysis.

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Chapter 5

EVACUATIONDEMANDESTIMATES

The number of persons within the Basic Emergency Planning Zone (BEPZ) at the time an

evacuation occurs, their mobility characteristics, and their locations relative to the major

evacuation routes are key factors governing the time necessary to evacuate part or all of the

area. These factors affect the number of vehicles which would travel each section of the

evacuation routes, the locations where congestion would occur, and the requirements for

special assistance.

The populace within the BEPZ has been classified into six groups, based on their particular

transportation characteristics and/or needs. The groups are:

A. Persons Evacuatin B Own Vehicle

)

1, Residents who own vehicles;

2. Transients (visitors and non-resident workers) who have vehicles available;

B. Persons Re uirin Evacuation Assistance

1. Residents without vehicle;

2. Transients without vehicle;

3. School children; and

4. Special populations having restricted mobility.

The following sections discuss the population groups, and the evacuation transportation

requirements associated with each.

5.1 Persons Evacuatin B Own Vehicle

I(y

The estimated number of resident-owned evacuating vehicles was derived from the updated

estimate of dwelling units per zone, after deducting the number of households withoutvehicles. Households without vehicles and multi-vehic]e owning households for each zone

in 1990 were based on the same proportion of total households as calculated in the 1985

evacuation study. The number of vehicles estimated to evacuate is based on the assumption

that: all of the one-vehicle households would generate one vehicle; 50 percent of the two-

vehicle households would generate one vehicle, and the remaining 50 percent would

22

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generate two vehicles; and all of the three-vehicle households would utilize two vehicles for

evacuation purposes. These evacuation vehicle rates were then applied to estimated 1990

zonal household data to obtain the updated estimates of residents'vacuating vehicles.

Although detailed 1990 Census data which reports household vehicle ownership was not

available at the time of this study, general 1989 statistics reported by Urban Decision

Systems as part of their "Chamber Data PAC" for San Luis Obispo County (October 1989)

confirms the reasonability of the earlier 1985 vehicle ownership characteristics, The assumed

evacuation vehicle generation rates used for vehicle-owning households were originally

developed by Alan M. Voorhees & Associates (AMVA)for use in the 1980 Evacuation

Time Assessment Plan for the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant. Based on Wilbur Smith

Associates (WSA) experience in the area of evacuation planning, the AMVAassumptions

produce conservative estimates of evacuation vehicles for area residents. Many of the

evacuation studies prepared for emergency response purposes assume an average evacuation

rate of one vehicle per vehicle-owning household. The AMVAassumption results in an

average evacuation rate of approximately 1.2 vehicle per vehicle-owning household. For

consistency purposes, the more conservative vehicle generation rates have been maintained

in this update study.

The number of transient vehicles evacuating were estimated independently for the three

evacuation conditions. Earlier transient estimates reported in the March 1985/Revision 3

Emergency Response Plan and those developed for the 1985 Evacuation Time Assessment

were reviewed and updated for 1990 conditions. Transient population components (e.g. non-„

resident beachgoers, tourists/visitors, and workers) were identified and estimated for each

PAZ and for each evacuation condition.

Beachgoers, which represent the largest proportion of the daytime transients within the

BEPZ, were estimated based on California Department of Parks and Recreation 1990

VisitorAttendance Reports (for utilization of the State Park beaches). Beachgoers at public

beaches where no visitation records are kept were estimated based on a review of earlier

estimates and physical characteristics of the beach area including general parking constraints.

Non-resident tourist/visitor and worker populations were estimated based on several factors

which included the earlier 1985 transient estimates and general tourism, business, and

employment information available through the local Chamber of Commerce.

It should be noted that the scope of this study did not include a detailed survey or extensive

investigation of transient population. The 1990 transient population estimates represent a

refinement/update of the 1985 estimates. The current estimates have resulted in various

23

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adjustments and/or shifts in transient population between PAZs: In some cases, individual

PAZ transient population have increased and in others the figures have decreased with

respect to estimates used in the 1985 Evacuation Time Assessment. Transient population

within the 0 to 10-mile radius (PAZs one through five) in the 1990 estimates show little

change. Between the 10-mile radius and BEPZ boundary, transient populations have been

reduced. The most significant adjustments have been made within PAZ 6 (City of Pismo

Beach). In this PAZ, it was difficult to reasonability justify the magnitude of 1985 peak

summer weekend and nighttime transient population accumulations of 14,500 and 7,450 non-

residents respectively. Normal weekday transient populations were also judged to be

somewhat overestimated. The re-assessed 1990 transient estimates for PAZ 6 are

significantly lower, but more in line with State Beach utilization and general transient

estimates for other beach communities within the BEPZ.

l It is important to note that evacuation assumptions applied to the transient population in

the evacuation. time assessment add a factor of conservatism to the analysis. These

assumptions include the following:

1. Beachgoers are all assumed to be non-residents of the BEPZ; and

2. Beachgoers and other transients are assumed to remain in the area until they and the

resident population are instructed to evacuate.

Estimated 1990 evacuating resident and transient vehicles by zone for each evacuation

condition are given in Table 3. For the entire BEPZ, resident-related evacuating vehicles

are estimated to total 61,560. Transient vehicles are estimated to total 8,342 on a normal

weekday, as many as 16,197 on a peak summer weekend day, and approximately 4,883 fornighttime conditions. Resident and transient vehicles combined produce the evacuation

vehicle totals summarized in Table 4 by evacuation condition.

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Tnble 3

Estimated Evacuation Vehicles 1990

Residents Transients( )

I rotccllvc Acllon Zone Allscenafn)s(l) Nornlal Wcckday I'cak Sunlnlcr Weekend Day Night t ilnc

I 2-Mile 9(X) 300 3IX)

2 6-Mile 59 355 646

Avila/San Luis Bay/Scc Canyon/SIIuirc Canyon

4 Prefumo Canyon/Los Osos Valley

5 Baywood/Los Osos

6 City of Pismo Beach

7 Indian Knob/Price Canyon

8 San Luis Obispo Area

1,745

494

7,467

5,358

67

20,153

879

0

72

1,286

0

1,172

2,028

0

133

2,462

0

1,163

258

0

22

1,019

0

956

9 Morro Bay/GIyucos 7,341 1,571 3,507 790

10 Five Cities, Southern Portion

11 Orcutt Rd/Lopez Dr./Route 227

12 Nipomo North of Willow Road

Total - Basic Emcrgcncy Planning Zone

15,503

978

2,392

61,560

1,960

0

147

8,342

5,819

139

16,197

1,276

0

175

Source: (I) II~~'d on ltesidcnlid I'oPnlalion Snilislic» Icccivel nlllllI (I'll' and l)clcllllllcnl~ Sclncnd'cr I PJI.

(2) Lstimalcs developed by wilbur smith Associalcs b;red on calil'ornia Dcparlmcnt ol''arks and ltccrmtion )~PA visitor/Aucndancc Reports and local chamberot'ommerceinformation.

~ 4

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Table 4

Total EvacuatingVehicles

Evacuation Condition

Vehicle-Owning

Population Component

Resident

Transient

Normal Weekday

61,560

8,342

Peak Summer

Weekend Day

61,560

16,197

Nighttime

61,560

4,883

Total Vehicles 69,902 77,757 66,443

Source: Table 3 totals for BEPZ.

5.2 Po ulation Re uirin Evacuation Assistance

A number of persons in the BEPZ may not have a vehicle available to use in an evacuation.

Groups which may require transportation assistance would include households withoutvehicles, households where the family vehicles are unavailable at the time of evacuation,

transients without vehicles, and persons in institutions (schools, hospitals, ornursing/convalescent homes).

The San Luis Obispo County/Cities Nuclear Power Plant Emergency ResponsePlan'rovides

for the evacuation of persons in households where vehicles are not available byinstructions that those not evacuated by friends or relatives should assemble at designated

collection points to be evacuated by bus. Those unable to go to the collection point are

instructed to telephone a designated number for transportation assistance.

Public transit in the BEPZ is furnished by several providers operating a variety of buses ofdifferent sizes. In order to estimate the number of bus trips needed for supplementarytransportation assistance during an evacuation, it was assumed that the average seating

capacity per bus is 36 persons. Recognizing that some standees could be accommodated forthe trip to the reception centers, but, on the other hand, that many riders would be carryingat least one parcel or bag, a conservative average estimate load of 40 persons per bus was

'p. Cit. Part I, Section 6, Concept of Operations, Pages 6-8.

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used'to estimate bus demand. For each of the three evacuation scenarios, the required

numbers of bus trips are:

Scenario

Table 5

Required Number of Bus Trips for AllEvacuation Scenarios

Persons At-Home Bus Trips

Normal Weekday

Peak Weekend Day

Nighttime

10,138

11,570

11,570

290

290

Source: Table 10 and ll totals for "Persons-at-Home"

Note that school children are not included in the above weekday scenario, since, as noted

below, the School Districts plan to evacuate them by school bus. Also, the totals given

assume that the entire BEPZ is evacuated, For a partial evacuation, there would be a

smaller requirement for supplemental transportation.

5.2.1 Schools

A summary of student enrollment in public and private schools within the BEPZ is given in

Tables 6a and 6b. Current enrollments within the study area are reported by school

authorities to be 16,425 students in public schools and 2,503 in private schools.

5.2.2 Public Schools

Public school enrollments are divided between three school districts: San Luis Obispo

Coastal (8,160 students), Lucia Mar (7,972 students), and Cayucos (293 students) Unified

School Districts. Each District has its own fleet of buses to transport students. The Office

of County Superintendent of Schools also has a number of buses for use in transporting

students to and from facilities under its jurisdiction.

In the event that an evacuation warning is given on a weekday while school is in session, San

,Luis Obispo County School Districts willrelocate students from schools within the BEPZ to

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Table 6a

I'ublic School Enrollments

School Public School DistrictStudent

Enrollment

Bellevue/Sante Fe Elementary School

Baywood School

Los Osos Middle School

Sunnyside School

Monarch Grove Elementary School

Bishop's Peak School

Hawthorne School

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

87

675

490

622

454

406

237

Laguna Middle School

Los Ranchos School

Pacheco Elementary

Pacific Beach High School

San Luis Obispo Adult Education

San Luis Obispo High School

Sinsheimer School

Smith (C.L.) School

Teach Elementary School

Dcl Mar Elementary School

Morro Bay Elementary

Morro Bay High School

Judkins Middle School

Shell Beach Elementary

Arroyo Grande High School

Grover City Elementary

Grover Heights Elementary

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San,Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

San Luis Coastal

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

10

10

10

670

523

272

81

200

1,195

390

440

248

275

298

797

694

381

2,126

549

520

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% ~ -w. ~ y y r 4 l t ~ y ~

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Table 6a Cont.

Table 6a

Public School Enrollments

School Public School District PAZStudent

Enrollment

Harloe Elementary

Lopez Continuation School

North Oceano Elementary

Ocean View Elementary

Oceano Elementary

Paulding Middle School

Branch Elementary

Mesa Elementary

Cayucos Elementary School

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Lucia Mar

Cayucos

10

10

10

10

10

10

12

12

530

175

495

571

615

264

588

293

Total

Less SLO Adult Education students tvho are assumed to have access to personal automobile transportation

16,625

200

Public Pupils to be Evacuated by School Bus 16,425

Source: November 1992 Enrollment, San Luis Obispo County, Superintendent of Schools.

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Table 6b

Private School Enrollments

School Address

StudentEnrollment

Pine Tree School 1114 El Morro AveLos Osos

Sand Castle Pre-School

Sonshine Pre-School

Village Childrens Center

Happy Time CooperativePre-School

New Life Pre-School

YMCAChildren's Center

Alta Vista School

Day Spring Christian

Foothill Pre-School

Johnson Ave Pre-School

Los Verdcs Montessori

Mission College Prep.

Old Mission School

1390 4th Street

Los Osos

1900 Los Osos Valley Rd.Los Osos

490 Los Osos Valley Rd.Los Osos

1091 Bello Street

Pismo Beach

990 James WayPismo Beach

340 Pomeroy Ave.

Pismo Beach

1534 Lizzie StreetSan Luis Obispo

525 Cerro RomauldoSan Luis Obispo

317 Foothill Blvd.

San Luis Obispo

2075 Johnson AvenueSan Luis Obispo

4200 So. Higuera St.

San Luis Obispo

682 Palm Street

San Luis Obispo

761 BroadSan Luis Obispo

30

36

75

16

30

24

155

10

53

100

35

160

30

I

N~

I«l +4 'I" t

I

II

Table 6b cont.

'fable 6b

Private School Enrollments

School Address PAZStudent

Enrollment

San Luis Christian Academy

Southwood Christian School

United Methodist Childrens

Center

Zion Christian School

Estero Bay Childrens Center

Estero Bay Day School

Roandoak of God Christian

Academy

Arroyo Grande Montessori

Carmelita Child DevelopmentCenter

Central Coast Christian

Academy

Coastal Christian

Achievement School

Coastal ChristianAchievement School

Dandy Lion Pre-School

52 Foothill Blvd.

San Luis Obispo

3396 Johnson AvenueSan Luis Obispo

1515 Fredericks

San Luis Obispo

1010 Foothill Blvd.

San Luis Obispo

685 Monterrey AvenueMorro Bay

853 Quintana Rd.

Morro Bay

455A Chorro Creek Rd.Morro Bay

216 Oak

Arroyo Grande

512 S. 13th

Grover Beach

227 Bridge St.

Arroyo Grande

207 Pilgrim Way

Arroyo Grande

2865 S. Ocean Blvd.

Arroyo Grande

1089 Baden Ave.

Grover Beach

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

67

45

53

24

45

10

22

24

218

54

10

31

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t

Ap$t

g 't t$ b ~ A

I

kt I

II

Table 6b cont.

Table 6b

Private School Enrollments

School Address

Student

Enrollment

Discovering A Childs Place 1475 Trouville AvenueGrover Beach

10 12

Las Lomas Childrens Center

Lighthouse Christian School

Little Oaks Pre-School

Open Door ChurchPre-School

250 Wesley St.

Arroyo Grande

497 Fair Oaks Blvd.

Arroyo Grande

900 Oak Park Blvd.

Arroyo Grande

1911 Ocean

Oceano

10

10

10

10

42

80

42

36

Peace Christian School

Peter Pan Childrens Center

Small World Christian

Pre-School

St. Patrick's Parochial School

Valley View Seventh-Day

Adventist Jr. Academy

244 Oak Park Blvd.

Arroyo Grande

1587 El Camino Real

Arroyo Grande

207 Pilgrim Way

Arroyo Grande

900 W. Branch St.

Arroyo Grande

230 Vernon Ave.

Arroyo Grande

10

10

10

10

10

Total

60

26

309

2,503

Source: 'ilbur Smith Associates telephone conversations with private School Operators, December 1991 through November,

1992. ~

Iy32.

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units will be transported by the Office of the County Superintendent of Schools (OCSS).

The primary means of transport would be by school bus.

There are presently approximately 74 school buses of various capacities in the Basic

Emergency Planning Zone. The legal capacity of each bus is based on three students per

seat, but California law allows the practice of putting four students in the seat in case of

emergency. This increases the capacity substantially. The combined total legal school bus

capacity of the Lucia Mar and San Luis Coastal Unified School Districts is 4,203 students,

while the combined total emergency capacity is 6,021 students, an increase of 30 percent.

The districts have successfully shown in drills that, when using the emergency seating

arrangement, and multiple trips, they can evacuate all their students and staff without the

need for outside buses. Their first concern is to evacuate the elementary schools, since it. is assumed that many high school students drive to school and can evacuate themselves and

friends. 'For the second run, the buses go to the high schools to evacuate any remaining

students or staff and to the elementary schools outside the BEPZ. Standard operating

procedures have been prepared for each school district in the area: San Luis Coastal; Lucia

Mar; Cayucos; Atascadero Unified; and Cuesta College.

The evaluation of transportation requirements for school children assumes that the majority

of students attending public schools would be transported outside the affected area by school

district buses which would be assigned to each school, The County emergency plans

encourage the parents of these children to reunite with their children at assigned reception

centers outside the BEPZ.

5.2.3 Private Schools

t

Few private schools provide bus transportation for their pupils, The OCSS willnotify private

schools of an emergency condition. It is assumed that the private school operators will

arrange transportation for their students.

33

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5.2.4 S ecial Po ulations Havin Restricted Mobilit

There are three population sub-categories within the BEPZ which would require assistance

in an emergency evacuation. These are:

1. Hospital patients;2. Convalescent Home residents; and

3. Homebound persons.

As indicated in the San Luis Obispo County/Cities Nuclear Power Plant Emergency

Response Plan,'ersons in these special categories would be relocated to reception centers

or appropriate facilities outside the affected area. Transportation requirements for the

relocation of these special institutions are identified in the following sections.

5.2.5 Persons in Institutions

Four acute care hospitals and several convalescent and residential facilities are located

within the BEPZ. Patients from these facilities would be evacuated by bus, wheelchair van

or ambulance. as appropriate. Estimated transportation requirements shown below are= based on an assumed average mix of patient requirements based on the judgement of staff

of the County's health service. For acute care hospitals, 50 percent of patients were

assumed to be ambulatory; about 30 percent to require wheelchair vans; and 20 percent

ambulances. For nursing homes/convalescent hospitals, 75 percent were assumed

ambulatory, 15 percent to require wheelchair vans, and 10 percent ambulances.

For residential care facilities, 80 percent of residents were assumed to be ambulatory, 10

percent to require wheelchair vans, and 10 percent ambulances. Table 7 gives the number

of patients at each facility by type of facility, and includes the PAZ of each institution. Abreakdown as to how many trips by buses, ambulance, and wheelchair vans are estimated

to be required is given in Table 8. As shown there, a total of 23 buses, 85 ambulances and

44 wheelchair vans are estimated to be required to meet institutional special transportationneeds.

Op Cit, Part I, Section 6, Concept of Operations, Pages 6-9.

34

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II

Table 7

Persons in Institutions Needing

Special Transportation Assistance

Facility Address

Persons

Needing

Evacuation

Assistance

Acute Care Hospitals

French

San Luis Obispo General

Sierra Vista

Arroyo Grande Community

911 Johnson Ave.,S.LO.

2180 Johnson Ave.,S.LO.

1010 Murray Ave.,S.LO.

345 S. Halcyon Rd.+G. 10

138

178

79

Subtotal 435

Convalescent Hospitals/Center

Cabrillo Care Center

Hillhaven

De Groots Nursing Home

Seashell Communities

Arroyo Grande Care Center

3033 Augusta, S.LO.

1425 Woodside Dr.,S.LO

1015 Buchon St., S.LO.

SR 1 & S. Bay Blvd., M.B.

1212 Farroll Ave., A.G. 10

162

154

12

216

Subtotal

Residential Care Facilities

Thrclkeld Family Home

Casa De Vida

1429 14th St, LO./253 Montana Way, LO.

879 Meincckc," S.LO.

5/6

Ocean View

Lillian Guest Home

The Huntington

Alder Guest Home

Oak Park Manor

2803 Ocean Blvd., Cay

1264 Bolten Drive, M.B.

SR 1 & So. Bay Blvd., M.B.

295 Alder Street, A.G.

1073 Old Oak Park Rd., A.G.

10

10

10

Patio Home Care 222 South Elm, A.G. 10

Subtotal

Total in institutions to be evacuated 1337

Ie Source: Wilbur Smith Associates

Note: S.LO. = San Luis Obispo, A.G. = Arroyo Grande, M.B. = Morro Bay, LO. = Los Osos, Cay=Cayucos

35

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Table 8

Summary of Vehicle Requirements for Special

Transportation Needs by Institution

Patients Vehicles Required

Institution PAZ Total Ambulatory

Non-

Ambulatory Hus Ambulance WC Van

hcute Care IIospitals

Arroyo Grande Community

French

S.L.O. General

Sierra Vista

Subtotals

Convalescent IIospitals

Cabrillo Care Center

IIillhavcn

Scashcll Communities

Arroyo Grande Care Center

DcGroots

Subtotal

Residential Care Facility

Alder Guest Home

Oak Park Manor

Patio Home Care

Thrclkeld Family Home

I luntington

Lillian Guest Home

Ocean View

Iiillhaven

Casa De Vida

Subtotals

10

10

10

10

79

138

40

178

435

162

154

216

12

643

10

30

90

40

69

20

89

218

122

116

162

75

19

19

71

72

39 0.5

69 1.7

20 0.5

89 2.2

217

40 3.1

3S 1.9

54 4.1

24 1.9

3 0.2

159 12

2 0.2

0.5

0.5

2 0.2

17 1.8

1 0.1

1 0.1

0.6

18 1.8

57

8.0

13.8

4.0

17.8

44

8.1

7.7

10.8

5.0

0.6

33

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.75

2.3

6.9

2.0

8.9

22

4.1

5.4

03

17

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.2

LS

0.1

0.1

0.5

l(g

Totals

Notes: ~

1367 934 433 23 44

Decimals are used to illustrate that thc buses, ambulances, and wheelchair vans may make several

stops before reaching capacity.

WC Van denotes wheelchair van.

Vehicle capacities are assumed to be as follows - Bus= 40 persons, Ambulance= 2 persons, WCVan= 6 persons.

36

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5.2.6 Homebound Persons

The number of homebound persons requiring special transportation was estimated from a

list maintained by the County Office ofEmergency Services. Estimated vehicle requirements

were derived after consultation with County health service staff on the assumption that

roughly 10 percent would require wheelchairs and one percent ambulances. Table 9 lists the

number of homebound persons requiring transportation assistance by PAZ.

5.3 Summa of S ecial Trans ortation Assistance Needs

A summary of the population within the BEPZ requiring evacuation assistance is given in

Table 10 for each of the three evacuation scenarios. As indicated in the Table, demand for

supplemental transportation assistance is expected to be at a maximum on a schoolday when

persons requiring bus transportation could total about 28,100 including students at schools.

As mentioned previously, in the discussion of schools, School District Emergency Response

plans call for public school evacuation needs to be met by the school bus fleet when school

is in session. Persons estimated to require transportation by public transit bus are estimated

to range from approximately 12,858 on a peak summer weekend day to about 11,222 on a

normal weekday, with the estimated nighttime value some 12,583. Considerably lower total

demand is expected at night or on weekends, when students and workers are at home.

Demand for ambulances or wheelchair vans shows less variation from one scenario to

another. A summary of estimated vehicle trip needs for transportation assistance is given

in Table 11. A listing of schools and hospitals by PAZ can be found in Appendix B.

5.4 Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant Workers and Visitors

The number of on-site workers and visitors present at the Diablo Canyon Power Plant

depends upon the day of the week, and whether or not a generation unit is shutdown formaintenance or refueling purposes. During routine shutdowns or "outages" of a unit, there

is generally an increase in the number of contractor personnel on site to perform the

necessary maintenance and fueling activities.

Pacific Gas and Electric Company would order an evacuation of the plant at the declaration

of a Site Area Emergency in coordination with off-site officials, In this event, an estimated

900 vehicles would be instructed to evacuate the site, with some personnel remaining on-site

for emergency action.

37

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Table 9

Homebound Persons RequiringSpecial Transportation

Location

Persons Needing

Evacuation Assistance

Avila Beach

Baywood Park/Los Osos

Pismo/Shell Beach

San Luis Obispo

Cayucos

Morro Bay

6/7

35

34

116

38

Arroyo Grande

Oceano

10

10

59

Total 310

Source: San Luis Obispo County, OAice of Emergency Services, Special Needs/Evacuation Assistance Population Summary,

December, 1991.

38

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gf%LV%'I+~LE I *'\< ~ )8 I I ~ *

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h

Table 10

Summary of Persons Needing

Special Transportation Assistance

Population Category

Normal Weekday(Schoolday)

Peak Weekend Day(Non-School Day)

Night-Time

Bus Transportation

Persons-at-Home

a). Households without vehicles

b.) Requiring special transportation

9,862

276

11,294

276

11,294

276

Subtotal 10,138 11,570 11/70

Acute Care Hospitals 218 218 218

Nursing Homes/Convalescent Hospitals

Residential Care Facilities

Transients without Autos 150 354 79

Total, Persons by Transit Bus 11,222 12,858 12,583

Ambulances

Persons-at-Home

Hospitals

Nursing Homes/Convalescent Hospitals

Residential Care Facilities

87

12

87

12

87

12

Total Person by Ambulance 166 166

Wheelchair Vans

Persons-at-Home 31 31 31

Hospitals 130 130 130

Nursing Homes/Convalescent

Residential Care Facilities

96 96

23

96

Total Persons by WC Van Trips 280 280 280

Notes: (I) Bus transportation for students at public schools is to be provided by and at the direction of thc OAicc of the

County Superintcndcnt of Schools. Therefore, school students are not included in the estimated total to bc

evacuated by special assistance transit buses.

(2) It is assumed that private school students are either picked up by their parents, or transported by the school;

therefore, they are not included in the total persons to bc evacuated by special assistance transit buses.

39

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Pk g!

I

10$ Yr >'>r %r+ (' ta'' ~">"'g" y ~ ' g'4

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Table 11

Estimate of Vehicle Trip Requirements forSpecial Transportation Needs

Population Category

Normal Weekday(Schoolday)

Peak Weekend

Day (NonSchool Day)

Night-Time

Bus Transportation

Persons-at-Home

a). Households without Vehicles

b.) Homebound

Subtotal

Schools~

283

290 290

Acute Care Hospitals

Nursing Homes/Convalescent Hospitals

Residential Care Facilities

13

24

13

24

13

24

Transients without Autos

Total Bus Trips 300 336 336

Ambulances

Persons-at-Home

Hospitals

Nursing Homes/Convalescent Hospitals

Residential Care Facilities

Total Ambulance Trips

Wheelchair Vans

Persons-at-Home

33

87

44 44

33 33

87 87

Hospitals,

22 22 22

Nursing Homes/Convalescent

Residential Care Facilities

17 17 17

IyI

Total Wheelchair Van Trips 49 49 49

'us transportation to be provided by and at thc direction of the Office of the County Superintendent of Schools.

40

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Chapter 6

EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK

Evacuation route plans are set forth as part of the emergency response plans for the local

organizations responsible for planning and implementing an evacuation of the Basic

Emergency Planning Zone (BEPZ). These plans identify the local roadways to be used as

evacuation routes by each community. The major evacuation routes designated for the

BEPZ are shown in Figure 5 and described in Appendix Exhibit A-1, which reproduces an

excerpt of the County Emergency Response Plan.

6.1 Recent and Planned Im rovements to Ma'or Road Network

Contact was made with State and local officials responsible for elements of the area road

system to update information on system'improvements. These contacts revealed that there

are no significant projects planned for area roadways in the near future. Some periodic

routine maintenance projects are programmed along state routes in the area; however,

Caltrans advises that traffic operations could quickly be "normalized" in the event of an

emergency evacuation.

The County Engineering Department advises that plans are advancing for improvements to

the so called "twin bridges" on South Bay Boulevard in Morro Bay. These bridge spans have

been vulnerable to occasional closure because of flooding. They would ultimately be

reconstructed on a raised profile which is expected to improve their serviceability greatly

during periods of high water.

6.2 Evacuation Route Com uter Network

The designated evacuation routes were translated into a link/node network for input into the

computerized Evacuation Time Assessment Program. First, the area roadway network was

redefined as a system of roadway links (segments) and nodes (roadway intersections).

Network nodes were then numbered and coded for input into the computer program.

Protective Action Zones (PAZ) were represented in the network by centroids, representing

the center of activity within the zone. Centroid connectors were used to represent zonal

access to major evacuation routes.

41

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The link/node network representing the'evacuation routes, and the location of the

population centroids representing the Protective Action Zone, are depicted in Figure 6. The

figure also illustrates the centroid connector links.

6.3 Traffic 0 eration

Operation of traffic on the major evacuation routes willbe governed by the County's Traffic

Management Plan. This plan is developed in conjunction with the California Highway Patrol

and is part of their Standard Operating Procedures.

6.4 Travel S eeds

Average speeds were„assigned to each link according to the character of the roadway.'" '" ' 'reeway speeds w'ere"assigned at 30-'45 miles per hour with ramp speeds at 15 miles per

hour. Four-lane roadways were generally assigned speeds ranging from 25 to 35 miles per

hour, depending on posted speed limits, roadway quality and access control. Speeds for two-

lane roadways ranged from 10 miles per hour to 25 miles per hour. Centroid connectors

'ere considered as local or neighborhood streets and assigned a speed of 10 miles per hour.

It should be noted that the above mentioned speed assignments represent average speeds

and apply only when the roadway facilities are operating below the assigned roadway

capacity. Once traffic flow reaches or exceeds roadway capacity, the computer model begins

to simulate the formation of traffic queues on the "over-capacity" links and any feeder links

affected by the over-capacity link. The computer model adjusts the travel times to reflect

the congested'conditions.

6.5 Roadway Conditions

Capacities assigned to each roadway link in the computer model take into consideration

general roadway geometries as well as side road interferences. The roadway capacities used

for this analysis are given in Table 12. These are not the same values used in the 1980 and

1985 Evacuation Time Assessments. The values were reviewed and adjusted in some cases

to reflect more conservative average lane capacities. The updated. capacities have been re-

42

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evaluated using standard Highway Capacity Manual'ethodology and are judged to be

reasonable estimates for emergency evacuation conditions.

One important change in the evacuation capacity assumptions relates to the assumed

operation of U.S. 101 northbound in the Cuesta Grade area. The current evacuation

capacity assumptions assume that only two northbound lanes (instead of three) would be

used for evacuation purposes.

Once an evacuation is well underway, most vehicles would be headed in the same direction.

Because of the directional flow and controlled routings, lane capacities could be higher than

those observed under normal circumstances. Another factor which could contribute to

smoother flow and higher capacities is that the drivers involved in the evacuation would

probably be the most seasoned, experienced driver of each household. The standard

operating procedures for traffic control provide for clearance of disabled vehicles from key

evacuation routes.

Highway Capacity Manual - Special Report 209, Transportation Research Board,National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1985.

44

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Table 12

Capacity of Major Evacuation Routes

Route Segment

TotalLanes

One-Way

Evacuation

Lanes Capacity(2)

U.S. 101

State Route 1

State Route 41

State Route 166

State Route 227

Arroyo Grande-

Los Berros Rd

Avila Rd

San Luis Obispo-Atascadero

San Luis Obispo-Santa Maria

San Luis Obispo-Cayucos

Cayucos-Cambria

Pismo Beach

Pismo Beach-Grover Beach

Grover Beach-Nipomo

Nipomo-Guadalupe

Morro Bay-Atascadero

Nipomo (east)

San Luis Obispo-

Arroyo Grande

Arroyo Grande-Nipomo

Avila Beach-U.S. 101

2,400

3,600

3,600(')

1,500

1,200

1,500

1,200

1,500

1,000

1,200

1,000

1,000

1,000

Old Creek Rd

Los Osos Valley Rd

Orcutt Rd

South Bay Blvd

Cayucos-Route 46

Los Osos-San Luis Obispo

Arroyo Grande-

San Luis Obispo

Los Osos-Morro Bay

1,200

1,000

1,000

Source: Wilbur Smith Associates, November 1992.

( )F-Freeway/Expressway, R-Rual Highway, A-Urban Arterial.( )Vehicles per hour (vph), in assumed usage during evacuation (one-way capacity).( )3,000 vph in City of San Luis Obispo and Morro Bay.

45

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ylii

Chapter 7

EVACUATIONTIME ESTIMATES

There are two distinct events which are necessary to initiate the evacuation. One event is

the direct notification of public agencies, schools, and institutions requiring special

evacuation considerations. The second event is the dissemination of the evacuation warning

to the general population. Both of these events must include instructions regarding the

sectors to be evacuated. The first event is assumed to be accomplished by telephone from

the various emergency response organizations to each affected group. The second event

would be initiated by a public warning system, which would combine an acoustical warning

system by sirens, and then be supplemented by instructions over selected broadcast stations.

» 7.1 Com onents of Evacuation Time

For the general population, the time required to evacuate is comprised of several individual

time components. During an evacuation, each individual would react differently in terms ofactions and speed. Therefore, each of these time components must be considered as a

distribution of individual time rather than a single, fixed-time increment. The sequence ofactions during an evacuation have been formulated to reflect those actions which may be

expected from the majority of the population. The evacuation time components used in this

analyses are as follows:

1. Recei t of Notification -"The time required for the general population within the

affected area to receive notification of evacuation once the public alerting is initiated

by the local authorities.

2. Return to Home - The time required for persons to return to their homes, if not

already at home, prior to their evacuation of the area. This also reflects the time

required to close up business and places of work.

3. De arture from Home - Once home, the time required to assemble family members,

to pack essential items for the evacuation, and to secure the home prior to their

leaving.

4. Evacuation Travel Time - Once underway, the time required for the population to

travel out of the affected area.

46

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I

Each evacuation time component can be expressed graphically as a normal distribution curve

where the height of any given point along the curve represents the percentage of the

population completing that particular public response component at a given point in time.

The response time curves representing the first three components, when combined, form the

mobilization time distribution. Mobilization time is that period between the initial

evacuation notification and the time the person(s) leaves home. It is the mobilization time

distribution which controls the rate at which vehicles enter onto the evacuation roadway

network.

7.2 Notification and Pre aration Times for General Public

(

In this study, three different mobilization distributions were developed, two to represent

, daytime public response on a normal weekday and on a peak weekend day, respectively, and

a third to reflect a nighttime response. Public responses during the daytime scenarios would

differ somewhat for transients (tourists/beach visitors, workers) and residents. For example,

residents and some tourists registered in local hotels/motels would return home prior to

evacuating; whereas many transient beach visitors and non-local workers would begin

evacuating immediately. The individual and combined public response curves are illustrated

in Figures 7 and 8 for the daytime and nighttime conditions respectively.

The public response time information was combined with the actual travel time needed to

travel from their origin point within the BEPZ to the BEPZ boundary. These total

evacuation times are discussed below.

7.3 Site Area Emer en

A site area emergency is characterized by events involving actual or likely major failures ofplant functions needed for protection of the public. Although emergency actions involving

members of the public may not be necessary, emergency response organizations will be

mobilized. The Low Population Zone (LPZ) in the Power Plant vicinitymay be evacuated.

For Diablo Canyon Power Plant, this is the area inside the six-mile distance ring, consisting

of Protective Action Zones (PAZ) 1 and 2. Montana De Oro State Park, the beach area

of the community of Avila Beach/Port San Luis, Pismo State Beach and Oceano County

Campground may be evacuated as a precaution and schools downwind from the plant would

be closed or evacuated.

47

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III

~IiI

Z0

00

0IJJG

Z4 Ooo K

UJ

DO

80

60

40

20

tu

o@

I

yV'0

I-Receive

Warning

2.ReturnHome

3-Leave

Home

10

58

15

91 96

56 82

11 14

30 35

17 33

40 45

50 66

50

82

55

91

15 30 45 60 75

0)Time

90 105

Daytime Response

Cumulative Percent oE Popuhtion Completing Response by Elapsed Time

Hapscd Timct0

0

1+2+3Mobilization

Less Vsse One Percent

(I) htlnetcs alter alert

19 47 750

15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135

ELAPSED TIME IN MINUTES

ESTIMATED DAYTIMERESPONSE

aLInttl

Figure 7

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D0

80

60

40

20

C9

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yV

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5 10 15 20

24 52 87 92

11 18 34 50

25 30

94 96

67 83

35

87

Nightimc Response

Cumulative Percent of Population Completing Rcsponsc by Elaspcd Time

Elapsed Timct0

40

0

I+2 Mobilization

(I) Minutes atter atcrt

Elapsed Timcto

15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120

15 53 88 98 100 100 100 100

IO 20 30 40 50

ELAPSED TIME IN MINUTES

60 70 80 90

NMNSl%'E%'I lNg

WN,

ESTIMATED NIGHTTIMERESPONSE

Figure 8

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7.4 General Emer en

All events within this classification are situations where release of radioactive materials to

the environment is imminent or actually underway. Protective actions, possibly involving

evacuation, will be necessary. Upon notification of a general emergency, emergency

response personnel will be mobilized. Early Warning System sirens will be sounded and

protective action instructions will be broadcast over the Emergency Broadcast System.

7.5 Alternative Evacuation Conditions

Depending on the specific nature of the emergency and the overall assessment of the

situation, and recognizing such factors as anticipated time interval to release, meteorological

conditions and the other pertinent factors, evacuation measures may be initiated either for

various sectors of the area or for the entire BEPZ. For this analysis, evacuation timeI

estimates were made for a total of nine different groupings of PAZs representing various

sectors'of the BEPZ. Principal and secondary evacuation routes considered in the

evacuation time assessment for each of the evacuation scenarios are illustrated in Figures

9-1 through 9-9. Each scenario was investigated to determine the estimated evacuation time

for each of the three time conditions (normal weekday peak summer weekend day, and

nighttime) under fair weather conditions. The normal weekday condition was also evaluated

for an assumed adverse weather condition. In this case, roadway capacities were reducedIf

by 15 percent to simulate the altered travel conditions.

7.6 Estimated Evacuation Times

Results of the analyses of evacuation time requirements for each evacuation scenario and

time condition are given in Table 13. It is assumed that traffic control authorities willaccord

priority access to buses and other high-occupancy vehicles (wheelchair vans, ambulances,

etc.) required to make multiple evacuation trips. It is estimated that this procedure willenable the evacuation of persons requiring supplementary transportation to be completed

within the time required for a general evacuation.

50

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Table 13

Evacuation Time Estimates

By Scenario and Condition

Evacuation Scenario Evacuation Condition

Number Sector PAZs

Normal

Weekday

Peak

Weekend Night(t)Adverse

Weather( )

(Evacuation Time in Hours)

Base

North-A (limited)

(1,2)

Base + (5)

2.75(3)

3.00(4)

4 25(3)

4.50(4)

2.75(3)

3.00(4)

44.25(3)

4.50(4)

2.00(')

2.25(4)

4.00(3)

4.25(4)

2.75(')

3.00(4)

55.25(3)

5.50(4)

North-B (aa)

East (all)

North & East (ail)

Southeast-A (limited)

SoutheaSt-B (limited)

Soutfleast-C (all)

Entire BEPZ

Base + (5, 9)

Base + (4, 8)

Base + (4,5,8,9)

Base + (3,6,7)

Base + (3,6,7,10,11)

Base + (3,6,7,10,1 1,12)

Base + (3,4$ ,6,7,8,9,10,11,12)

4.50

8.75*

6.50

10.00*

4.50

7.50»

8.75*

7.25

7.50

10.25*

8.50»

2.75

5.75

9.50*

5.50

8.50*

10.25*

3.50

(1) Nighttime evacuation was assumed to take place on a summer night, to maximaze the prcsencc of transients.

(2) Adverse weather assumes normal weekday traHic volumes.

(3) Time to clear 10 miles.

(4) Time to clear BEPZ.

This assumes limited diversion of U.S. 101 NB evacuation vehicles to S.R. 1 NB. With morc optimal diversion of US. 101 NB evacuation vehicles to both S.R. 1 NB and US. 101

SB, evacuation times could be reduced by 15 hours (peak weekend) and 2.00 hours (for other conditions).

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7.7 NRC Summaries

Table 14 gives the estimated population and number of evacuation vehicles for two-, six-,

and ten-mile distance rings from the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, according to the summary

format prescribed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. It also shows the evacuation

times both for normal conditions and adverse weather.

7.8 Bottleneck Locations

The computer simulation of the evacuation process resulted in the identification of several

bottleneck locations in the BEPZ, where traffic demand can be expected to significantly

exceed available capacity during a general evacuation, resulting in lengthy vehicle queues and

~ delays. These are shown in Figures 10 and 11 for the Normal Weekday and Peak Weekend

Day conditions, respectively. They are generally well known to local transportation officialsC

as trouble-spot locations.

Delays can be expected at access points to U.S. 101 in San Luis Obispo, and along U.S. 101

on the Cuesta grade. South Bay Boulevard is another bottleneck, due to limited roadway

capacity. California Route 1 in the Morro Bay area is also expected to be a delay location.

In the southern portion of the BEPZ, delays are also indicated through the Five Cities area

on both U.S. 101 and California Route 1.

52

I

I

II

Table 14

I stimated I'opulntions, Vehicle l)emnnd

nnd Evacnntion Times by Evacuation breaI'eak Summer Weekend l)ay, 1990

Evacu:<lion Area/PAZRcsidcnt

Popuh<lion

Transient

Popuh<tion

TotalPopulation

Rcsidcnt

Vchiclcs

Transient

VehiclesEvacuatingVchiclcs

Est< Illa ted

Cumulative

Evacuation Time

(Hours) NormalWca ther

Estimated

Cumulative

Evacuation Time

(Hours) Adverse

Wcathcr(t)

2 Mile/I

0-2 Mile Total

3(X)

Within 2 Miles

304

304

Within 6 Miles

3(X) 303

303

2.75

2.75

275

2.75

0-2 MileTotal

6 Mile/2

0-6 Mile Total

10()

104

2,(X)0

2,300

304

2,1(X)

3,404

59

62

646

946

303

705

1,008

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

Wilhh< 8-10 Miles

0-6 Mile Total

Avila, San Luis Bay,Sce

Canyon, Squire Canyon/3

Prcfumo Canyon,

Los Osos Valley/4

Bay<vood, Los Osos/5

0-10 Mile Total

104

3,151

1,174

15,290

19,719

2,300

5,500

320

8,120

3,404

8,651

1,174

15,610

27,839

62

1,745

494

7,467

9,768

946

2,028

133

3,107

1,008

3,773

494

7,600

12,875

2.75

2.75

2.75

4.50

4.50

2.75

2.75

2.75

5.50

5.50

I

P ~

y

Ii

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I

Table 14 cont.

'I'able 14

Lstimated I'opulations, Vehicle Demand

and I:vacnalion 'I'inies by I:vaenalion AreaI'eak Summer Weekend Day, 1990

Evacuation Area/PAZRcsidcnt

Population

Transient

Population

Total

Population

Rcsidcnt

Vehicles

Transient

Vehicles

TotalEvacuating

Vehicles

Estlnlatcd

Cumulative

Evacuation Time

(Hours) NormalWeather

Estimated

CumulativeEvacuation Time(Hours)AdvcrscWeather(1)

Within BE<PZ Boundary

0-10 Mile Total

City of Pismo Beach/6

Indian Knob, Price Canyon/7

San Luis Obispo

Morro Bay, Cayucos/9

Five Cities

(Soutlicfn Portion)/IO

Orcutt Rd., Lopez Drive,

Route 227/11

Nipomo, North ofWillow Road/12

19,719

7,669

168

5 I,I73

12,949

31,848

2,615

4,687

8,120

6,900

2,070

9,800

17,125

250

27,839

14,569

IG8

53,243

22,749

48,973

2,615

4,937

9,768

5,358

67

20, I53

7,341

15,503

978

2,392

3,107

2,462

I, IG3

3,507

5,819

139

12,875

7,820

67

21,31G

10,848

21,322

978

2,531

4.50

4.50

4.50

7.75

10.00

10.00

10.25

5.50

5.50

5.50

11.00

11.75

11.75

12.00

0-BEPZ Boundary 130,828 44,265 175,093 61,560 16,197 77,757 10.25 12.00

(I) hdvcrsc Kvcnlhcr assumes Normal IVcct'day evacuation condhions which include Icss total population nnd cvncunling vchiclcs.

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APPENDIX A

AGENCIES CONTACTED

66

Ir

t0)

it

TABLEA-1

Contacts and Acknowledgements

A en ata Source Date s Contacted

10/92 through 1/93

11/91 through 12/92

3/92

11/91, 11/92

11/91, 11/92

11/91

11/91, 11/92, 1/93

1/92, 10/92

12/91, 10/92

12/91, 10/92

12/91, 10/92

11/91, 8/92, 1/93

9/91

12/92

1) Pacific Gas & Electric

2) San Luis Obispo County Office of Emergency Services

3) California Highway Patrol

4) Caltrans District 5

5) San Luis Obispo County Engineering Department

6) California Department of Parks and Recreation

7) San Luis Obispo County Office of the Superintendent

of Schools

8) . Private Schools (identified in Table 6b)

9) Acute Care Hospitals (identified in Table 7)

10) Convalescent Hospitals/Centers (identified in Table 7)

11) Residential Care Facilities (identified in Table 7)

12) Chamber of Commerce offices in San Luis Obispo,

Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach, Pismo Beach, & Morro Bay

13) ESSEX Corporation

14) Medcom Ambulance Service

67

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APPENDIX B

DESCRIPTIONS OF MAJOR EVACUATIONROUTESMAPS OF LOCALEVACUATIONROUTES

68

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Ma'or Evacuation Routes

Due to the sparseness of the road system in the County, essentially all State Highways and

U.S. 101 serve as major evacuation routes. Key local evacuation routes connect to the

through routes. Traffic control points are designated according to their importance for

directing traffic during an evacuation.

State Route 1 between San Luis Obispo and Morro Bay will operate with traffic inbound

to San Luis Obispo from Baywood/Los Osos. In many instances it would not be desirable

to have traffic from San Luis Obispo directed north on Route 1 (either due to a wind

condition or to an evacuation being conducted in coastal areas north of the plant), although

this route could be available.

San Luis Obispo traffic will be directed to four key northbound on-ramps to U.S. 101

(Monterey'Street, California Boulevard, Osos Street, and Madonna Road).

Evacuees from Avila Beach willtravel north on U.S. 101. Pismo Beach could have available

U.S. 101 going north for the Shell Beach area, and Price Canyon Road for the portion

northeast of U.S. 101, as well as the prime southerly routes V.S. 101 and State Route 1.

Similarly, some traffic from the portion of Arroyo Grande northeast of U.S. 101 would be

able to evacuate to the north on State Route 227. However, the majority of vehicles from

Arroyo Grande would use U.S. 101 to the south.

The California Highway Patrol willcoordinate control of evacuation traffic throughout the

Basic Emergency Planning Zone to provide optimum usage of available capacity.

69

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(Sheet I of7)July 1991

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( Sheet I of 7 )

July 1991

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LOCALEVACUATIONROUTES

(Sheet 2 of 7)71

July 1991

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LOCAL EVACUATIONROUTES

Sheet 3 of 7

July 1991

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LOCALEVACUATIONROUTES

(Sheet 4 of 7)

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July 1991

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AVILABEACHLOCALEVACUATIONROUTES

(Sheet 5 of 7)July 1991

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LOCALEVACUATIONROUTES(Sheet 7 of 7)

July 1991

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77RGURE 8-8

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MONTANA DE ORO STATE PARKLOCAL EVACUATION ROUTES

78

KEY:

Paved Roads~ State Park 8oundry

Trails

FlGURE 8-9

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br//Ip H'Qhway

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MORRO BAY STATE PARK

LOCAL EVACUATIONROUTES79

~os Oso~Ve//e osI'oad

FIGURE B-10'

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PISMO RAMP>

GRAND AVENUE RAMP >

NORTHBEACHCAMPGROUND

PISMO BEACH STATE PARKOCEANOCAMPGROUND

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PISMO DUNES STATEVEHICLE RECREATION AREA

DUNE ACCESS y(Sand Hwy3

Pacific Ocean

SR 1

N

2500 5000 ft.„

*ALTERNATEEVACUATIONROUTE TO THESOUTH VIAOSO FLACO ROAD LIMITED

TO 4-WHEEL DRIVE VEHICLES

Scale hpproxlmate i,O

PISMO BEACH STATE PARK AND VEHICLE RECREATION AREAEVACUATIONROUTES FIGURE 8-11a

80

III

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KEY

DPR Direction

Traffic Control Pointby:

Grover City PDCHPPiamo Beach PD

NORTH BEACHCAMPGROUND

t t«ro Crt

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OCEANO CAMPGROUND

PISMO BEACH STATE PARK

PISMO DUNES STATEVEHICLE RECREATION AREA t'o ~ 0 4ooloo Sl.

~ ALTERNATE EVACUATION ROUTE TOTHE SOUTH VIA OSO FLACO ROADLIMITEDTO 4-WHEEL DRIVE VEHICLES.

CP'

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PISMO BEACH STATE PARK AND VEHICLE RECREATION AREALOCAL EVACUATION ROUTES FIGURE B.-1 1 b

81

I

APPENDIX C

SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS INPROTECTIVE ACTION ZONES

82

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Table C-1

Listing of Schools and Hospitals

In Protective Action Zones

PAZ Schools Hospitals/Residential

Care Facility

Diablo Canyon PG&EPlant Site

None None

Diablo Canyon

Avila Area

Los Osos Valley Area

Los Osos-

Baywood Park Area

None

Bellevue-Santa Fe ElementarySan Luis Bay Dr. & See Canyon Rd.

None

Los Osos Middle School

1555 El Morro St.

Sunnyside School

880 Manzanita Dr.

Baywood Elementary School

1330 9th St.

None

None

None

Threlkeld Family Home

1429 14th St

Threlkeld Family Home253 Montana Way

Monarch Grove Elementary School

348 Los Osos Valley Road

Private Schools

Pine Tree School

1114 El Morro Ave.

Sand Castle Pre-School

1390 4th St.

6&7 Pismo Beach Area

Sonshine Pre-School

1900 Los Osos Valley Rd.

Village Childrens Center490 Los Osos Valley Rd.

Shell Beach Elementary2100 Shell Beach Rd.

None

Judkins Middle School

680 Wadsworth St.

83

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Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and Hospitals

In Protective Action Zones

PAZ Schools Hospitals/ResidentialCare Facility

68(7(cont.)

Private Schools

New Life Pre-School

990 James Way

YMCAChildern's Center

340 Pomeroy Ave.

Happy Time Cooperative Pre-School

1091 Bello St.

San Luis Obispo Area Bishops Peak

451 Jaycee Dr.

Teach Elementary School

375 Ferrini Rd.

Hawthorne School

2125 Story St.

Laguna Middle School

11050 Los Osos Valley Rd.

Los Ranchos School

5785 Los Ranchos Rd.

San Luis General Hospital2180 Johnson Ave.

Sierra Vista Hospital1010 Murrary Ave.

Cabrillo Care Center

3033 Augusta

Hill Haven Care Center

1425 Woodside Dr.

De Groots Nursing Home

1015 Buchon St.

Pacheco Elementary

165 Grand Ave.

Pacific Beach High Scool

1950 Los Osos Valley Rd.

San Luis Obispo High School

1350 California Blvd.

Casa De Vida

879 Meinecke

Sinsheimer School

2775 Augusta St.

Smith (C.L.) School

1375 Balboa St.

San Luis Obispo Adult Education1530 Lizzie St.

84

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Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and Hospitals

In Protective Action Zones

PAZ Schools Hospitals/Residential

Care Facility

8

(cont.)

Private Schools

Alta Vista School

1534 Lizzie St.

)

Dayspring Christian School

525 Cerro Romauldo

Los Verdes Montessori School

4200 S. Higuera St.

Mission College Prepatory682 Palm St.

Old Mission School

761 Broad

San Luis Christian Academy

51 Foothill Blvd.

Foothill Pre-School

317 Foothill Blvd.

Johnson Ave. Pre-School

2075 Johnson Ave.

Southwood Christian School

3396 Johnson Ave.

United Methodist Children Center

1515 Fredericks

Morro Bay-

Cayucos Area

Zion Christian School

1010 Foothill Blvd.

Del Mar School

501 Sequoia

Morro Bay High School

235 Atascadero Rd.

Seashell Communities

SR 1 & S. Bay Blvd.

Ocean View

2803 Ocean Blvd.

Morro Bay Elementary

1130 Monterrey Ave.

Lillian Guest Home

1264 Bolten Dr.

85

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II

I

Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and HospitalsIn Protective Action Zones

Schools Hospitals/ResidentialCare Facility

9

(cont.)

Cayucos Elementary School

301 Cayucos Dr.

Private Schools

Roandoak of God Christian Academy

455A Chorro Creek Rd.

The HuntingtonSR 1 & S. Bay Blvd

Estero Bay Childrens Center

685 Montery Avenue

Estero Bay Day School

853 Quintana Rd.

10 Arroyo Grande-Grover

City-Oceano AreaArroyo Grande High School

495 Valley Rd.

, Grover City Elementary

365 S. 10th St.

Lopez Continuation School

1221 Ash St.

North Oceano Elementary2101 The Pike

Arroyo Grande Community345 Halcyon Rd.

Arroyo Grande Care Center

1212 Farroll Ave.

Alder Guest Home295 Alder St.

Oak Park Manor1073 Old Oak Park Rd.

Oceano Elementary

17th St. & WilmarPatio Home Care

222 South Elm

Ocean View Elementary

1208 Linda Dr.

Paulding Middle School

600 Crown St.

Grover Heights Elementary770 N. 8th St.

Harloe Elementary901 Fair Oaks Ave.

86

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'

~ ~ % '% t

I

Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and EIospitals

In Protective Action Zones

Schools Hospitals/Residential

Care Facility

10

(cont.)

Private Schools

Central Coast Christian Academy

227 Bridge St.

St. Patrick's Parochial School

900 W. Branch St.

Valley View Seventh-Day

Adventist Jr. Academy

230 Vernon Ave

Lighthouse Christian School

497 Fair Oaks Blvd.

Dandy Lion Pre-school

1089 Bader Ave.

Carmelita Child Development Center

512 S. 13Th

Discovering A Child's Place

1475 Trouville Ave.

Las Lomas Childrens Center

250 Wesley St.

Little Oaks Pre-School

900 Oak Park Blvd.

Open Door Church Pre-School

1911 Ocean

Peace Christian School

244 Oak Park Blvd.

Peter Pan Children's Center1587 El Camino Real

Small World Christian Pre-School

207 Pilgrim Way

87

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h 'P I

I

I

Table C-1 (cont.)

Table C-1

Listing of Schools and EIospitals

In Protective Action Zones

PAZ Schools Hospitals/ResidentialCare Facility

10

(cont.)

Arroyo Grande Montessori

216 Oak

Coastal ChristianAchievement School

2865 S. Ocean Blvd.

North Rural ArroyoGrande

Coastal Christian

.Achievement School

207 Pilgrim Way

None None

12 Nipomo Mesa (North) Branch Elementary

970 School Rd.

None

Mesa Elementary School

2555 Halcyon Rd.

88

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s

APPENDIX D

EVACUATIONTIME ASSESSMENTPROGRAM METHODOLOGY

89

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L$ 5

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APPENDIX D

EVACUATIONTIMEASSESSMENT

PROGRAM METHODOLOGY

The evacuation time assessment was performed in two separate packages of computer

programs. The general flow of these packages is illustrated in Figure D-1.

Build Evacuation Network - This portion of the program is accomplished utilizing the

link/node descriptions from Evacuation Route development task. The computer program,

utilizing well-established principles, was extracted from an in-house program, TRANSIT,

which was basically created for transit route development. It organizes the input data and

it assembles link data such as distance, speed, hourly capacity, and queuing capacity.

Assi nment of Vehicles to Each Centroid - Using centroid population and car occupancy

inputs, the user computes vehicle volumes to be evacuated and assigns these volumes to

each centroid. Remaining steps are also computed in the evacuation time assessment

routine.

Public Res onse Time Distributions - Since the predicted volume of vehicles entering the

network from each centroid is a function of various public response times to the evacuation

warning, it is necessary to establish quantification of these responses by certain assumed

conditions. Three public response time distributions were combined to assess evacuation

times under the four scenarios - summer weekday, nighttime, peak summer weekend, and

adverse weather conditions.

Determination of Mobilization Time - Mobilization time is defined as that period between

the issuance of the evacuation warning and the time taken for the last vehicle to leave any

centroid, under the specified scenario conditions.

Time Distribution of Traffic Volumes on the Evacuation Network - The traffic volumes

previously assigned to each centroid are then distributed onto the network imcrementally as

determined by the combined public response distributions.

IyCa aci Dela Anal sis - The capacity delay analysis is performed in the assessment

program by the four time increments determined in the above step. It is based upon the

rudimentary principle of queuing —which is, if the input to a network element during a

specified time period exceeds the service capacity of that element, a queue of input vehicles

is formed and a delay is generated to those vehicles in the queue. These vehicles must be

added to the input of the next interval and compared to the service capacity to determine

90

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if another queue is formed at the end of that interval. The process is continued until all

vehicles to be serviced have passed through the element.

For example, consider the processing of a sequence of intervals where the input of the

second and third intervals exceeds capacity. After a first interval when input is less than

capacity, all vehicles are served with no delay and no queue is formed (Q1=0). However,

when input during the second interval exceeds the capacity, a queue of vehicles, Q2, results.

This volume is therefore added to the input of the third interval, which then again exceeds

capacity. At the end of this period a queue of Q3 vehicles remains. These vehicles are

added to the input of vehicles during the fourth interval. Because that volume exceeds

capacity, a number of vehicles, Q4, remains at end of that period. This queue must then be

dissipated at a rate equivalent to the link's capacity. A delay of TD is required for this

discharge and must be added to the four time increments to obtain the total time for the

entire volume to pass through the link.

It is important to note that this process has "metered" the input to equal the link capacity.

As the traffic proceeds to the next link of the evacuation route, its input is at the rate

commensurate to the previous link's capacity. Ifno additional volume has been assigned to

the subsequent link and that link has the same capacity as the upstream link, no additional

delay is experienced.

Ifeither the capacity or volume of the downstream link is different, the analysis procedure

must be repeated, using the respective input volumes and capacity of that link.

, Determination of Dela Times for Each Link - The evacuation routes for each centroid are

analyzed using the delay analysis technique described above. The delays, ifany, are assigned

to each of the links. Previous delays for any link resulting from the analysis of another

centroid for the same link are compared in the program. Appropriate adjustments to each

link delay are made by the program and the proper delay assigned.

Determination of Link Travel Times - Travel times for each link are computed by the

assessment program using the link distance and the anticipated link operating speed inputs.

These travel times assume no capacity delays. Therefore, when the travel time for a link is

added to the proper delay time, the actual speed for the link is represented.

92

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