European universities in a changing world

European universities in a changing world

Prof. Dr. Dirk Van DammeCentre for Educational Research and InnovationOECD/EDU – CERI

Overview

• The context for expansion and innovation– Economical (and the impact of the crisis)– Demographic– Social

• Trends and challenges– Access, equity and success– Quality, ranking and diversification– Internationalisation and globalisation

• Change and innovation

12 June 2009 2Santander Group GA Cluj

The economic context

• The knowledge economy will need more high-skilled people with better and newer skills– There are more jobs expected asking for

high-level skills than there are higher education graduates, so there still is a need for expansion of participation and attainment

– If countries want to overcome the economic crisis and to remain competitive in the future, they will have to invest in human (and social) capital

12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 3



• The current economic crisis will result in long-lasting high unemployment rates, especially among young people– Rather favourable labour market conditions at

onset of the crisis– OECD UNR rose to 7.3% in February 2009: 9m

more unemployed than 1 year earlier– Unemployment expected to rise to 10.1% in late

2010: nearly 30 million more jobless persons than in 2007

– Significant deterioration of youth unemployment rate



Growth will collapse in 2009 and stagnate in 2010

Average 2008 2009 2010

1996-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 q4 q4 q4

Per cent

Real GDP growth1 2.7 3.1 2.7 0.9 -4.3 -0.1 -1.5 -3.4 1.1

United States 3.2 2.8 2.0 1.1 -4.0 0.0 -0.8 -3.5 1.1

Euro area 2.1 3.0 2.6 0.7 -4.1 -0.3 -1.4 -3.5 0.8

Japan 1.1 2.0 2.4 -0.6 -6.6 -0.5 -4.3 -4.4 0.4

Unemployment rate36.6 6.0 5.6 6.0 8.4 9.9 6.5 9.3 10.1

Fiscal balance4-2.2 -1.3 -1.4 -3.0 -7.2 -8.7

Memorandum Items

World real trade growth 7.0 9.5 6.9 2.5 -13.2 1.5

World real GDP growth53.4 4.3 4.1 2.2 -2.7 1.2

1. Year-on-year increase; last three columns show the increase over a year earlier.

2. Per cent of potential GDP. Estimates of potential have not been revised and therefore do not incorporate a

possible reduction in supply implied by the downturn.

3. Per cent of labour force.

4. Per cent of GDP.

5. OECD countries plus Brazil, Russia, India and China only, representing 82% of world GDP at 2000

purchasing power parities.

Source: OECD.

Deteriorating youth unemployment rate


AUT

BEL

CZE

DEU

DNK

ESP

FIN

FRAGRC

HUNIRL

ITA

LUX

NLD

NOR

POL

PRT

SWE

SVK TUR

GBR USA

AUS

NZL

KOR JPN

MEX

CAN

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

UR

in Q

1 20

09

% points difference Q1 2009-Q1 2008

OECD average


• But:– Unemployment may provide strong

incentives to upgrading skills– Opportunity costs are decreasing– But social policies in higher education and

well-performing student support systems will be necessary to accommodate this



• The 21st century economy will need not only more skills but also new skills– ‘21st century skills’, ‘Skills for innovation’,

‘soft skills’– Such as: creativity, entrepreneurship,

critical thinking, curiosity, team-work, leadership, problem-solving

– Whether they are really ‘new’ can be questioned, but they certainly should have a stronger place in the curriculum



• Success of high-skills economies not only depends on production of skilled people, but also on skills utilisation– Low use of high skills (“over-schooling” or

“under-utilisation”?) in some countries– Skills mismatches– Can higher education also help societies to

become more innovative and oriented towards better utilisation of high skills?



Source: Lisbon Council, 2006

The demographic context

• In OECD countries (situation completely different in other parts of the world)– Falling birth rates and higher life

expectancy result in ‘greying’ populations– Higher ‘old age dependency ratio’

• Will force us– To utilize talents and competences in older

populations and to keep them productive– To prepare young people for life long

learning12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 12






• Also, more people on the move result in more diverse populations


The social context

• Persisting inequality of opportunity in higher ed, but continuing expansion improves equity

• Higher education will probably remain engine of meritocracy and social mobility for disadvantaged groups– Students from ethnic minorities and

migrants– ‘Reservoirs’ of talents in underrepresented

sectors of population



Source: Education at a Glance 2008


Source: CERI/OECD, 2008

The social context

• Changing value systems will further increase (and modify) the demand for higher learning, but also the way learners will want to learn– More secular and more oriented to self-

expression– Providing more opportunities for self-

directed learning


The social context


Access, equity and success

• Higher education systems will continue to grow and expand– Higher education has been successful in

responding to massification and contributed to enormous growth of higher education attainment

– Current growth rates can and will probably continue in most countries

– In some countries a very impressive growth is realised



Source: CERI/OECD, 2008

Scenario 1 = Status-quo Scenario 2 = Trend


• But we need active access policies, in order– To increase participation of

underrepresented groups, not only because of the economic benefit of tapping their talents, but also because of social cohesion

– To diversify participation, also to older learners in the perspective of lifelong learning



• But access and participation is not enough– Efficiency of teaching and learning

arrangements can and should be improved– Success rates of disadvantaged students

should be increased by active policies of support and assistance

– A ‘pedagogy of success’ instead of a ‘pedagogy of failure’• Selection may have been appropriate in

educational systems aimed at producing relatively small elites, but is much less so in societies that need to develop all talents


Quality, excellence and ranking

• Quality of higher education has improved a lot, supported by internal and external quality assurance arrangements– In the context of the Bologna process QA

serves to uphold the recognition of degrees– Issue of supportability

• But over the recent years the focus has shifted– To a strong preoccupation with the holy grail

of ‘excellence’, the ‘reputation race’, a focus on rankings and a desire to belong to the top-100 of global rankings


Quality, excellence and ranking

• A debate is needed on diversification of institutions and their missions– No proliferation of top-research– Accessible, high-level education is needed

for high numbers of students– Differentiation of academic and vocational

missions– Cf. European ‘mapping’ and ‘diversification’

projects, supported in Leuven Communiqué 2009

– Cf. diversified, multidimensional rankings12 June 2009 Santander Group GA Cluj 26

Internationalisation

• Expansion of international students• Some European countries are increasing

their share, but many others lag behind• Attractiveness of continental European

HE has not improved drastically– English-speaking countries remain

favourite study destinations

• Crucial importance of language



Source: Education at a Glance, 2008

Globalisation

• Worldwide convergence and integration– Integrated global system of scientific research– Increasing mobility of students, researchers,

teaching staff and institutional leaders• Emerging market of academics and researchers

– Technology-driven expansion of new delivery modes in teaching and learning

– International labour market of graduates• Globalising organisation of professions• Migration of high-skilled labour is to increase


Change and innovation

• In order to address these challenges ‘more of the same’ will not suffice; change and innovation are needed

• “The longevity of the university is not a result of never changing – but rather a credit to its ability to evolve, adapt, and change over time” (Clark Kerr)



• In struggling to cope with massification higher education institutions have adapted to a mode of operation characterized by standardisation– Thus far also the Bologna Process has

been focused on convergence, even harmonisation; the next phase 2010-2020 will focus much more at diversification



• But now we need more diversification to successfully meet the demands of a differentiated reality– Diversification of the institutional

landscape– Diversification of teaching & learning

arrangements for a more heterogeneous student population



• Critical issue 1– Those countries / institutions will be

successful which will be able to diversify provision and offer higher added value• Expansion: more learners• Efficiency: more successful learning• Equity and Diversity: diverse and equitable

answers to diversified demands

– Increasingly competing market– Technological innovation is part of the answer



• Critical issue 2:– Will HEI’s be able to sustain their role and

position as dominant producers of knowledge, skills and qualifications?

– Higher education institutions exist because they provide the institutional arrangements for effective and powerful learning environments

– But increasing number of competitors• More effective alternative providers?• Direct skills assessment

12 June 2009 34Santander Group GA Cluj

Concluding

• Once again universities will have to show their capacity for change in an increasingly demanding and competitive environment– Institutional will and capacity for change

will be crucial

• Universities cannot face this on their own, but have to engage in various kinds of networking


THANK YOU !

www.oecd.org/edu/ceri


http://www.oecd.org/edu/ceri

Documents

European universities in a changing world