European Parliament workshop Building blocks of …...World LTE market: Top 10 countries in subscriber numbers (m illion subs., December 2013 5 USA Q4 2013 104 680 Q4 2012 35 875 South

Future NetworksEuropean Parliament workshop Buildingblocks of the Ubiquitous Digital Single Market

November 13, 2014

ContactChristoph [email protected]+33 4 67 14 44 79

Where does Europe stand today?

Europe accounts for one fifth of global FTTx connections…

Europe**, 40.9 million subscribers

Asia-Pacific**, 89 million subscribers

Middle East & Africa*, 1.4 million subscribers

North America, 64.3 million subscribers

Latin America, 2.5 million subscribers

World = 200.51 million subscribers

VDSL 19%

FTTH/B 49%FTTx/D3.0 32%

3

• This figure does not take Israel into account, where VDSL is the main architecturedeployed. At end-2013, there were, in total, 1.25 million FTTx subscribers in Israel.

** This figure does not take FTTx+LAN architecture into account

VDSL 20%


VDSL -


VDSL -

FTTH/B 100%FTTx/D3.0 -

VDSL 10%


Source: IDATE, World FTTx market, June 2014

Breakdown of FTTx architectures per region ( December 2013)

Copyright © IDATE 2014

… but Asia and US are still in the lead in fibre

4

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

FTTx other

Share of FTTx in total fixed broadband subscriber base (selected countries, December 2013)


World LTE market: Top 10 countries in subscriber numbers (million subs., December 2013

5

USA

Q4 2013 104 680Q4 2012 35 875 South Korea

Q4 2013 28 450Q4 2012 15 810

Japan

Q4 2013 32 654Q4 2012 10 206

Australia

Q4 2013 6 910Q4 2012 1 400

Germany

Q4 2013 5 400Q4 2012 1 120

Sweden

Q4 2013 2 907Q4 2012 994

South Africa

Q4 2013 2 500Q4 2012 120

Q4 2013 3 006Q4 2012 100

Hong Kong

Q4 2013 2 207Q4 2012 600

France

Q4 2013 2 666Q4 2012 362

UK

Source: IDATE, in World LTE market, June 2014

LTE: Four of the world’s top 10 markets are European…


… yet, Asia-Pacific and the US are ahead of Europe again

6

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

SouthKorea

USA Japan Australia Sweden Hong Kong Germany France SouthAfrica

UK

LTE other

Share of LTE in total mobile subscriber base (selected countries, December 2013)


Europe’s position to improve over the coming years

7

11%

14%

16%

18%20% 20%20%

22%23%

24%25%

26%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LTE FTTx

Europe’s share of global subscriber base

Evolution of networks


As FTTx progresses, do technological advances breathe new life into copper?

9

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FTTx other

FTTx share of global broadband subscriber base

CJust under 50% of all fixed broadband will be basedon FTTx technologies in 2018

New technologies (vectoring, bonding, G.Fast) newsolutions have boosted the potential of copper in the lastmile

Lower cost, less complications with end users

SLU, availability of copper pairs, active equipment

Source: FTTH Council

+

-

Evolution of xDSL technologies


5G on the horizon as LTE-Advanced gains traction in the market

LTE-Advanced means better interference management, performance atthe cell edge, macro/small cell complementarity, and spectrumefficiency, thus facilitating- more flexible use of existing spectrum- improved spectrum efficiency: more throughput and capacity with the

same spectrum- more cost-effective network management for denser network deployed

and managed more effectively- improved throughput at cell edge

5G: more agile, dense and flexible networks capable of adapting to anexplosion of new devices and

Throughput and latency not the only objectives.- mobile data volumes per area which are 1,000 times higher; 10 to 100

times more connected devices; typical user data rates which are 10times to 100 times higher;

- battery life 10 times longer for low power MMC and latency reducedfive times.

2020 expected starting date for 5G deployments. Korean players haveannounced more ambitious plans

10

5G roadmap

Source: Huawei

Source: ARIB

Example of Framework for 5G

LTE-Advanced as a % of total LTE subscriptions

Source: IDATE


Convergence finally becoming reality?

11

Demand side• Commercial: 4P offers taking off

• Performance of LTE (Advanced) makes wireless a viablealternative for fixed line access:

Backhaul• Small cell deployments to densify networks and boost

capacity

• Use of fiber for mobile backhauling is common

• in Asia (GPON) and in dense areas

• DT GER: 95% of backhauling in fiber (2012)

Wifi & offloading• Improving indoor coverage and reducing traffic load on

cellular network

• Wifi progressively adopted by MNOs

• Signed agreements with Wifi aggregators

• Built their own Wifi hot-spot network

• Next step: more interworking between Wifi and cellularsystems with small cells supporting Wifi capability

Convergence materialising across different dimensionsRe-use of the FTTH network for mobile backhaul

Wifi offloading share of total mobiletraffic

Source

65% of mobile data traffic alreadyoffloaded

Light Reading

90% of tablet-generated traffic in the USAgoes through a Wifi connection (2011)

Alcatel-Lucent

71% of all wireless data traffic (78%expected in 2016)

EU studyreleased in Sept.2013

75% in 2013, 79% in 2016 Cisco/Mobidia/WIK

Offloading an important phenomenon already


Source: CNES

2000 2020

Ku* Ka* Ka/Q/V*

300 EUR/month 30 EUR/month 30 EUR/month 30 EUR/month

512 Kbit/s / 128 Kbits/s512 Kbit/s / 128 Kbits/s

20 Mbit/s / 6 Mbit/s 200 Mbit/s / 12 Mbit/s

2005 2013

Another future network to have on the radar: Satellite

Evolution of satellite broadband offers

Satellite a real alternative for many users


Thank you!

Documents

European Parliament workshop Building blocks of …...World LTE market: Top 10 countries in subscriber numbers (m illion subs., December 2013 5 USA Q4 2013 104 680 Q4 2012 35 875 South