EUROPE & ASIAPresentation

Chapter 26 ENLARGEMENT

(Ian Barnes and Pamela Barnes)

by Andi Demo

Presentation Plan Introduction Definition of Enlargement

Rationalist view Constructivist view

History of Enlargement The accession process

Membership criteria – Article 49 of TEU The Copenhagen Criteria Implementation mechanism

Conditionality framework The Czech and Bulgarian cases

The impact of Enlargement The prospective of Enlargement

Turkey, The Western Balkans and beyond… Conclusion

Understanding Enlargement

Nominal - the increasing of the size of the Union by incorporation additional members

Alternative – the widening of EU influence beyond the borders of the member states and deepening relations within the organization

Unions’ rationale - maintain and spread liberal democratic ideals and the market economy principles

States’ rationale – changing domestic and political and economic circumstances (for the better)

Rationalist viewAssumption – EU in not autonomous in decision making but

interacts with member states ; EU poses a driving sense of purpose

Enables the analyses of the self-interest of the actors concerned, which judge on a [financial] cost and benefit model

EU provides the legal authority and technical expertise

Fails to explain the reason why existing members would want to accept new members, with …

Justification for not engaging in non-enlargement : The potential of new members for undermining the coherence of the decision making process and other established economic and political realities.

Constructivist viewSHARED norm-and-values-driven enlargement between the

EU, Member countries and candidate countries.

Potential countries will seek institutional ties because they identify with the aims and policies of the Union

casesCandidacy of Iceland – FAVORABLECandidacy of Turkey – CONTROVERSIALEnlargement of the CEE - PROBLEMATIC

HISTORY OF ENLARGEMENT

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/europe/04/enlarging_europe/html/eu_expansion.stm

UPDATE - Croatia became the 28th member of the EU on 1 July, 2013 “practically completing the central European block accession”

- Director-General of Enlargement at the European Commission, Stefano Sannino

The Accession Process Initiated as an unsophisticated structure-less processStarts with a successful Application Improved and institutionalized via the Article 49 of

TEU and the Copenhagen CriteriaCommission’s approvalParliament’s supportCouncil’ unanimityRatification by parliament or referendum of the

aspiring memberRatification by individual member countriesConstantly changing on sui generis cases : Croatia,

Western Balkans

Article 49 of TEU The Union is founded on the principles of liberty,

democracy, respect for human rights, fundamental freedoms and rule of law

The Union shall respect fundamental rights, as guaranteed by the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms – Rome 1950

The Union shall respect national identities of Member States

The Union shall provide itself with the means necessary to attain its objectives

Copenhagen Criteria - 1993Stable institutions guaranteeing

democracyThe rule of lawRespect for human rightsProtection of minoritiesFunctioning market economy – capable to

withstand competitive pressuresAbility to take and respect political,

economic and monetary union obligations

Implementation mechanisms With increased membership it was necessary to adopt

additional mechanism in order to insure smooth transitions of peripherical countries

(Western Balkans) Stabilization and Association Process (SAA) – road to

membership through legislation modification, training of bureaucracy and harmonization

Safeguard clauses – Croatia border dispute with Slovenia

In the interim, it benefits from special arrangements, such as being able to comment on draft EU proposals, communications, recommendations or initiatives, and “active observer status” on EU bodies and agencies (it is entitled to speak, but not vote )

Conditionality framework A tool to encourage and persuade candidate

states to reform in line with the model of the EU

An instrument of power and influence towards candidates, albeit the most enthusiastic ones

On top of formal criteria, it exerts pressure and effectively causes structural domestic change

Carrots – funds in the short termSticks – delay and/or suspension of the

processProtects against enlargement fatigue

The Czech and Bulgarian cases

2008 Czech Republic official complaint from the Commission and

the prospective of financial sanctions for failure to introduce a anti-discriminatory law

2008 Bulgaria500 million Euros of withheld given-funds because of prior mismanagement, with the promise of restoration of funds if corrective actions were taken

The impact of Enlargement

PositiveIncreased global

importance Increased internal marketWidening of the euro zoneConvergence of living

standardsIntensification of intra-

relations

NegativeA more culturally,

linguistically diverse Union

Consensus, more difficult to achieve

Competition from cheap labor from new Members

Structural funds issueExtra-pressure on CAP

The prospective of Enlargement

In the words of Olli Rehn:“Enlargement does not continue at the pace of a shinkansen, but rather that of a local train...yet, being one of the EU’s most important security guarantees”

Enlargement with continue , HOWEVER

Despite the existing commitments, prospective candidates will faces increasingly complicated and rigorous requirements.

The European Continent

The Battle of Turkey

Special case 1963 - Association Agreement :

Custom Union, Freedom of Movement for Workers and Services

1987 – Application for membership 1999- Candidate Status 2005- Accession negotiations started

Lack of support and enthusiasm from EU citizens based on :

human rights records(Kurds, religious minorities)

Large population Huge agricultural sector MUSLIMS

Candidates - Western BalkansAlbania (formally applied for membership)

Broadly stable and enthusiastic; sporadic cases of corruption and organized crime , judiciary reforms

Bosnia and HerzegovinaEthnic divisions

Montenegro (formally applied for membership)Serbia

Historical baggage - ICTYFYROM

Resolution of the name-controversy with GreeceRepublic of Kosovo^(Resolution 1244/99 of

UNSC)Status

The unknown frontier

Potential Issues and Subjective view

Enlargement will continue with a slower path – a moment of consolidation, 5-10 years

Turkey’s entrance will be determined by the way EU will engineer itself globally :a global player (?)– Turkey will be Europe's military branch in the Middle East ( very unlikely given the conservative Christian club mindset )

Serbia and Kosovo will be the last members of the EU, given the improbability on status agreement

EU enlargement will stop with Ukraine

Reactionary subjective views

Conclusion

The hope of EU membership is a major incentive for reform amongst prospective members

There is a large development and income gap between Western/Central and South Western countries

EUROSCEPTISM versus EnlargementImperative of inward looking consolidation

policiesA more divers Europe will be more vibrant but

more difficult to manageEnlargement will stop with/at the moment of

consolidation of a common vision and purposeFederative Europe – it’s far!

…for your attention

ResourcesChapter 26 – Nugent, Government and Politics of the EU, Palgrave,

7th Edition, 2010

Euro Barometer - http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/index_en.html

http://www.iiea.com/events/the-future-of-eu-enlargement-policy#sthash.QdGcY4hn.dpuf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_European_Union

http://snippits-and-slappits.blogspot.jp/2011/10/qaddafi-speaks-on-turkey-eu-and-bin.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/europe/04/enlarging_europe/html/eu_expansion.stm

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining/index_en.htm