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Original Thinker
REPORT Britain & the EU
Brexit and the Belfast
(Good Friday) Agreement:
Finding a way through the
backstop impasse
REPORT Britain & the EU
Striking a Balance: A
blueprint for the future
UK-EU economic
partnership
REPORT Economic Policy &Trade
Global Britain: Priorities
for trade beyond the EU
TALKING OF OUR INTEL
“The chancellor is said to pay closeattention to the think-tank Open Europe,
which yesterday counselled against rushing therenegotiation with Brussels. Achieving real reformin Europe is clearly more important than meetingan arbitrary deadline, but the risk of waiting isthat opponents of reform will use the time toensure that nothing is agreed. ”
The Times: Leader, 19 May 2015
BRITAIN & THE EU
REPORT Britain & the EU
Manageable but Material:
The consequences of No
Deal and how the
Government should respond
Original Thinker
REPORT Britain & the EU
Brexit and the Belfast (Good
Friday) Agreement: Finding a
way through the backstop
impasse
BRIEFING Britain & the EU
European security
cooperation after Brexit:
Unanswered questions for
the UK and the EU
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Intelligence > Britain & the EU > Report > Original Thinker
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Original Thinker
REPORT Britain & the EU
Experts: Nina Schick,
Raoul Ruparel, Stephen Booth
Talking of our Report
The ten participantssitting around the
round table all know how tonegotiate. Nearly all hadrepresented theirgovernments in Brussels, andin the case of Italian EnricoLetta and Irish John Bruton,as their heads of government.”
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
The starkest warningcame from Leszek
Balcerowicz, a former deputyprime minister representingPoland. He said the prioritywould be to deter populists inother countries who wanted tocopy Brexit. For this reasonBritain would be punished byits partners even if thatseemed to be against theirinterests. Mr Cameron’snegotiations may be hard, butthey are a picnic comparedwith what he would face werehe to lose his referendum. ”
The Economist
The think-tank OpenEurope convened
various members of the greatand good to role-play twoscenarios – in the morning,David Cameron’s attempts atgetting a new EU deal, and inthe afternoon, thenegotiations that would followthe British public’s rejection ofit. The rst half was a debate.The second was a lynch mob.”
Cap X
The recent messagesfrom Downing Street
have been optimistic. Carefuldiplomacy is paving the wayfor David Cameron torenegotiate Britain’sEuropean Union membershipat a summit in Brussels onFebruary 18th-19th. Thatshould enable the primeminister to call (and win) hisEU referendum in late June.Yet the outcome of mock “wargames” staged on January25th by Open Europe, aLondon-based Euroscepticthink-tank, was lessreassuring. ”
The Economist
Former Italian PrimeMinister Enrico Letta
said Italy would supportmoving Europe’s nancialcentre away from London ifBritain left the bloc, whileFrance’s Noëlle Lenoir, aformer minister of EuropeanAairs, said the opportunityto move the EU’s nancialhub to a Eurozone country“could be a blessing”… in thedebate hosted by think tankOpen Europe. ”
Reuters
Under television lightsat a round table in
London, 11 people wererehearsing the EuropeanUnion’s newest reality show,in which Britain attempts toimprove its terms ofmembership…The title theorganizers from the OpenEurope think-tank had chosenwas “EU Wargames.” The ideawas to see how EU talks mightplay out, using actual…politicians from key countries.”
Bloomberg
The harshest wordscame from John
Bruton, playing Ireland.Brexit, he said, would be a“devastating decision” forIreland – “I would regard it asan unfriendly act… a huge,self-imposed, politicallygenerated shock to oureconomy.” It would undomuch of the work of the peaceprocess, and create hugequestions over borders andlabour market access. Out ofpure self-interest, Dublinwould probably try to grabwhatever nancial servicesfrom London hadn’t beenstolen by Frankfurt. ”
Bloomberg
Intelligence RSS Feed
EU Wargames: The challenges facing UKnegotiators inside and outside the EUOpen Europe’s ‘EU Wargames’ – a unique simulation of both theUK-EU renegotiation and what might happen if there was areferendum result in favour of Brexit – illustrate the key challengesthat UK negotiators are likely to face both in seeking reform of theEU but also a comprehensive economic agreement if there is aBrexit.
REPORT INFLUENCE
Open Europe’s second unique simulation of UK-EU negotiations, involving key politicians
from across Europe, including two former prime ministers, nine ministers and one European
Commissioner. Open Europe is the only body to have ever conducted such an exercise for the
interested public.
Under the media spotlight, Open Europe played out two scenarios over day-long
negotiations: the UK renegotiating EU reform from within and the UK seeking a new deal
after having left the EU (Brexit.)
For over seven hours, we livestreamed our EU Wargames to thousands around the world. The
hashtag #EUWargames was trending in the UK and Belgium throughout the day.
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17 February 2016
Credits: Claire Greenway, Getty Images
Open Europe’s EU Wargames highlight challenges facing UK negotiators inside oroutside the EUAhead of this week’s crucial EU summit meeting, at which Prime Minister DavidCameron hopes to nalise his EU renegotiation, Open Europe has published a newreport setting out the conclusions and lessons of its ‘EU Wargames’ – a uniquesimulation of both the current UK-EU renegotiation and what might happen if therewas a referendum result in favour of Brexit.
Open Europe’s EU Wargames, which assembled ‘players’ including former primeministers and cabinet ministers to represent their countries or the EU institutions, tookplace in front of a live studio audience rather than behind closed doors – they are theclosest the public can get to being inside the negotiating room. The simulatednegotiations provided a number of lessons which are now being borne out in reality.
Highlights: EU Reform session
A deal looks likely this week but none of the UK’s reform demands are consideredeasyDespite the consensus view in the UK that all the demands outside of those on EUmigrants’ access to welfare are easy, our wargame suggested that there could yet be anumber of stumbling blocks. We are now seeing disputes arise around the safeguardsfor non-Eurozone countries and, in particular, concerns around dierential regulationbetween those inside the banking union and those outside. Of course, the debatearound how long the ‘emergency brake’ on EU migrants’ access to benets will apply forremains open, as does the exact nature of access to in-work benets which will be easedover time. Despite these stumbling blocks a deal still looks on the cards. However, otherEU states should be very careful about watering the deal down or they could very well befacing the reality of a Brexit in a few months.
Unwillingness of some states to discuss fundamental EU reform has limited scopeof renegotiationA growing question is why the deal has seemingly focused on the minutiae. Thewargame may provide further lessons here. Ultimately, the EU has shown a lack ofwillingness to have a discussion about fundamental, structural reform. When the UKembarked on this process, there was a view that the Eurozone would also be undergoingserious structural changes. While that still seems possible and even likely, thediscussion has been delayed until after the French and German elections in 2017.Ironically, after months and even years of the UK trying to talk of EU reform andlinking its own concerns to the broader challenges facing the EU, other member statesare actively pushing towards a narrow UK-only deal.
UK ideas lost in translation?There was also an acute sense in the negotiations of the constraints which othergovernments are working under in terms of their own public opinions – there is asignicant amount of concern (justied or not) around whether a deal for the UK will besellable or encourage ‘populist’ forces in other states. Finally, there is also a sense thatthose involved still do not fully understand where one another is coming from, withmany of the UK demands (for example on migration) not well understood and much ofthe other states resistance equally coming as a bit of a surprise. These lessons help toexplain in part why the current negotiations have been so dicult.
Brexit talks could be acrimonious and emotionalBut here is where the lessons from the simulated Brexit negotiations might be of use toboth sides. If people believe the reform negotiations are dicult, irrational andemotional, then Brexit negotiations could well be even more challenging.
Highlights: Brexit session
Not Norway or Switzerland but ‘Canada+’?In putting forward the framework for life outside the EU, the UK player, formerChancellor of the Exchequer Lord Norman Lamont, shied away from the obvioustemplates to be found in Norway and Switzerland’s relationships with the EU in favourof something new. He decided the best approach would be to seek a comprehensive freetrade agreement, citing the EU deal with Canada as a good starting point.
Brexit would add to the EU’s list of crisesFor an organisation dealing with the Eurozone and refugee crises, Brexit could provideanother existential threat. Some countries warned that doing a post-Brexit deal with theUK would not be a top priority – perhaps as a negotiating ploy – but the playerrepresenting the EU institutions, disagreed, saying that in reality a new trade deal withthe UK would become the EU’s “top political priority.” This did not mean the UK wouldget an easy ride though.
Ireland is worriedOf all the individual member states, Ireland has the most to lose from a Brexit. OpenEurope research has found that Ireland could see a permanent loss to GDP of between3.1% and 1.1% if there were a Brexit. There could also be further complications forNorthern Ireland, for example around the creation of a customs border and uncertaintyabout the free movement of people. As a result, Ireland was keen for a post-Brexit dealto be sealed with the UK as quickly as possible and potentially for a special arrangementto take into account the special nature of the Anglo-Irish relationship. While othercountries expressed a desire for “solidarity” with Ireland, how far this would go wasunclear.
#euwargames is now trending TOP in UK. Visithttps://t.co/p5dFsOlJmE for Top trends in your area
pic.twitter.com/wT5ijuf1pX”— TrendsinUK (@TrendsinBritain) January 25, 2016
EU Wargames: Full length broadcast
If you cannot see the PDF reader below, please see here for the full report.
EU Wargames: Reform session highlightsEU Wargames: Reform session highlights
EU Wargames: Brexit session highlightsEU Wargames: Brexit session highlights
EU Wargames - Simulating EU Reform and Brexit NegotiationsEU Wargames - Simulating EU Reform and Brexit Negotiations
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