Climate Change and India: Presentation to India-EU

Round Table

Prodipto Ghosh, Ph.DDistinguished Fellow

The Energy & Resources Institute19 September 2007

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I. What is anthropogenic climate change? Suite of gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc,) emitted

from various economic activities: Fossil fuel use, wet paddy cultivation, cattle raising, fertilizer use, etc.

Growing (but not mature) forests absorb (“sequester”) CO2, the major GHG

Increasing concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere have same effect as a greenhouse, hence “Greenhouse gases” (GHGs). The resulting increase in temperature may impact many climate parameters

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Country CO2 (tons) per capita

Energy (kgoe) per $ GDP (PPP in yr 2000)

India 1.2 5.5

China 3.2 4.4

France 6.2 5.9

Germany 9.8 6.2

Japan 9.6 6.4

UK 9.4 7.3

USA 19.9 5.2

Source: The World Bank. World average of per capita CO2 is 4.3 tons

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Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Across all scenarios, average warming is 0.2°C per decade

Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for next two decades

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The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992

The UNFCCC set forth certain principles for addressing climate change by a global effort, in particular, that of “common but differentiated responsibilities” of countries; that development is the foremost concern of developing countries, etc.

It also gave a “soft target” for industrialized countries (Annex I Parties) to return to 1990 levels of GHG emissions by 2000

All major countries, inc. US, EU, India, China, have ratified the Convention

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Kyoto Protocol, 1997:

Legally binding Protocol setting out: Targets for GHG reductions by individual

industrialized countries during “first commitment period”, 2008-2012, totaling 5.2% below their aggregate 1990 emissions; actual percentages vary by Party

3 “cooperative implementation mechanisms” setting up a global market in carbon credits: Clean Development Mechanism, applicable to developing countries, operational since 2000

US, Australia have not ratified; EU, China, India, Brazil are Parties (Total 161 Parties)

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II. Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation Difference between natural climate variability

and anthropogenic climate change Summary of IPCC 4th Assessment Report on

Impacts Monitored changes in India’s key climate

parameters India’s energy policies and their GHG effect India’s response to natural variability Suggested way forward

Likely Impacts of Climate Change

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Difference betweennatural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

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Variation of all-India surface air temperatures

Trends in annual mean, maximum and minimum temperatures anddiurnal temperature range during the 20th century.

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All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2003)

Source: IITM homogeneous monthly rainfall data base

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Current knowledge about future impacts: ASIA

Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s.

Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some mega-deltas flooding from the rivers.

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Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development.

It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries.

Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.

Current knowledge about future impacts: ASIA

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Current knowledge about responding to climate change Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and

projected future climate change, but on a very limited basis.

Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.

A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.

Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses, esp. poverty

Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.

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Current knowledge about responding to climate change

Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase

While there has been significant improvement in scientific understanding of climate change in the past 20 years, there remains considerable uncertainty about the nature, timing, spatial distribution, and severity of particular impacts. In particular, none of the global climate models can be validated with respect to changes in rainfall over the Indian land-mass

Systematic observation and research needs

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III. Myths about India and Climate Change

Myth 1: India is an energy profligate Myth 2: India does not take climate impacts

seriously Myth 3: India’s development path is

unsustainable Myth 4: Abatement of GHG emissions is low-

cost

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Response to Myth 1: India’s current energy policies and their outcomes (partial list):

Improving energy efficiency Promoting hydro and renewable energy Power sector reforms Promotion of clean coal technologies Energy and infrastructure development Coal washing Cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel for

transport Environmental quality management (EIA appraisal

for significant development projects)

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India’s Energy Policies: Scenarios simulated by MARKAL (2001-2036)

Baseline: Base year 2001GDP growth rate 8%

Official demographic projectionsIPCC emissions factors

8% social discount rate Scenarios: S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation S2: Electricity for all by 2012

decentralized renewable optionsefficient cook stoves

S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport Greater use of CNG in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles

S4: S1+S2+S3 S5: Baseline with average annual GDP growth rate 6.7%

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CO2 emissions

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Year

MM

T

BASELINE S1 S2 S3 S4 S5

Source: TERI, 2006

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India’s actual carbon intensity performance

Compounded Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) of Indian GHG emissions during 1985 to 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1985 1990 1994 2000 2005

CA

GR

(%

)

CAGR (CO2)

CAGR (CH4)

CAGR (N2O)

Source: MoEF, 2007

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Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind India’s Sustainable Development

Energy intensity of GDP (kgoe/$ 2000 PPP) based on IEA data

0.15

0.17

0.19

0.21

0.23

0.25

0.27

0.29

0.311971

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

TPES (kgoe)/G

DP ($2000 P

PP)

Source: Plg. Comm. 2006

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Indian industry and energy efficiency

Major energy using sectors – steel cement, aluminum, etc. have become more energy efficient over the past 20 years

The following graphs depict changes in average energy intensities; incremental changes are much sharper.

The newer plants are among the most energy efficient globally

23Source: BEE, 2007

24Source: BEE, 2007

25Source: BEE, 2007

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Response to Myth 2: India’s actions on climate variability: The most effective response strategy for

anthropogenic climate change is poverty alleviation

Specific areas of concern include:- Agriculture- Water resources- Health and sanitation- Coastal Zones- Forests- Extreme weather events

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7 Major Components of Adaptation

Crop improvement & research (22) Drought proofing & flood control (19) Health improvement and prevention of disease (19) Risk financing (6) Disaster management (6) Forest conservation (12) Poverty alleviation and livelihood preservation (30)

(Figures in brackets indicate number of Schemes identified under each category)

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Percentage of Adaptation Expenditure to Total Fiscal Expenditure and GDP

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Year

Valu

e of

Exp

endi

ture

Expenditure on adaptation as% of total Govt. expenditure

Expenditure on adaptation as% of GDP

Source: MoEF, 2007

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Poverty Alleiviation and Livelihood preservation

59.34%

Forestry0.97%

Disaster Management0.38%

Risk Financing1.63%

Health 13.77%

Drought Proofing15.97%

Crop Improvement & Research

7.93%

Crop Improvement& Research

Drought Proofing

Health

Risk Financing

DisasterManagement

Forestry

Poverty Alleiviationand Livelihoodpreservation

Relative expenditures on major Adaptation schemes by thematic area

Source: MoEF, 2007

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IV. Response to Myth 3: Sustainability of Production and Consumption Patterns

Relevance Select Indicators:

- Energy inputs per unit of output energy delivered through food

- Waste generation and recycling

- Energy & emissions per unit of passenger transportation movement

Energy inputs per unit of output energy delivered through food

The energy inputs and resultant emissions in the cycle of growing the food, transporting, processing, packaging and preserving it till it reaches the table vary significantly between India, China, and developed countries. This reflects not poverty, but lifestyle choices.

32Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)

CO2 emission from food sector--from Field (production) to Table (processed food)-excluding cooking

0.1 0.1

1.7 1.8 1.9 2.02.2

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

India China UnitedKingdom

Germany Netherlands Australia United States

ton

CO

2/m

kca

l of

food

ene

rgy

Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

Waste generation and recycling

Consumption patterns also have a direct impact on the wastes that a society generates. In developed societies not only is there higher waste generation but also relatively lower recycling. Can we move to a lifestyle that entails lower packaging and higher recycling and hence lower usage of plastics, glass and paper? What may it imply for GHG emissions?

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30

47.353

70

0

20

40

60

80

US Germany Japan India

48

10

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

USA UK Germany India

Average rate of recycling (%) (excl. re-use)

GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp)

Municipal solid waste

Source: TERI Analysis, based on National Communications of different countries

Energy & emissions per unit of transportation movement

Sustainable mobility: shift from personalized modes of transportation to public modes of transportation, greater reliance on clean fuels and cleaner technologies, a shift towards IT based societies have major implications for GHG emissions.

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16

118

193

0

50

100

150

200

250

India EU (15 countries) USA

Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport

(gm/passenger-km)

Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources

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Response to Myth 4: MARKAL model estimates of costs of GHG abatement Cumulative incremental investment requirements

-2.5% -3.9% -6.0% -7.9% -9.7%

153341

717

1394

2530

-600

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Year

Cum

ula

tive increm

enta

l in

vestm

ent requirem

ents

(B

illion U

S$)

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Change in c

um

ula

tive C

O2 e

mis

sio

ns from

baseline (

%)

SMEs Pow er Renew able Biodiesel

Res & Com Emissions Red Total

The total incremental cost for reduction of GHG in India by 9.7% from baseline in 2036 is $ 2.53 Trillion!

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Cumulative incremental investment requirements and GDP of different countries in 2004

Cumulative incremental investment requirements:Comparison with 2004 GDP levels

GDP at 2000 prices

5811415 1591

19031953

4932

10704

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

GD

P (B

illio

n U

S$)

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Change in discounted energy system cost (2001-36)…

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Redcution of CO2 emissions from baseline

Change in d

iscounte

d s

yste

m c

ost

Reduction of GHG emissions by 9.7% from baseline by 2036 would involve economic loss of $ 180 Billion

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India’s Broad Approach to International negotiations of a global climate change regime

India is not a significant contributor to climate change in the past, at present, or likely to be in the near future, as revealed by actual empirical data, and modeling results on future carbon intensities

However, India is among the worst sufferers of climate change caused by industrialized countries!

India has taken a number of policies and measures to address both mitigation and adaptation and is preparing a national action plan on climate change

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India’s broad approach…

India can only consider international commitments to control GHG emissions on the basis of global convergence to equal per capita rights, otherwise our poverty alleviation efforts will be severely affected, and the world will be permanently divided into “the rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate”!

Technology and financial transfers for addressing climate change, both GHG abatement and adaptation to impacts must be ensured under any future international climate change regime.

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