ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures

© OECD/IEA 2012

6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results

The 6°C Scenario

4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency

The 4°C Scenario

2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions

The 2°C Scenario

Clean energy: slow lane to fast track

© OECD/IEA 2012

Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas

Significant action is required to get back on track

Renewable power generation

42%Average annual

growth in Solar PV

27%Average annual growth in wind

75%Cost reductions in

Solar PV in just three years in

some countries

Renewables provide good news

Energy RD&D has slipped in priority

© OECD/IEA 2012

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

5

10

15

20

25

1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Shar

e of

ene

rgy

RD&

D in

tota

l R&

D

USD

bill

ion

Energy RD&D Share of energy RD&D in total R&D

0

1

2

3

4

Braz

il

Chin

a

Indi

a

Mex

ico

Russ

ia

Sout

h A

fric

a

USD

bill

ion

2008 non-IEA country spending

A smart, sustainable energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

Recommendations to Governments

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy

2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future

3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000 OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGas with CCSGasCoal with CCSCoal

Low-carbon electricity: a clean core

© OECD/IEA 2012

Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in 2050 in the 2DS

TW

h

Global electricity generation in the 2DS

© OECD/IEA 2012

Renewables need to dominate EU electricity

Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

4DS 2DS

2009 2050

TWh

Other renewables

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Nuclear

Fossil w CCS

Fossil w/o CCS

53%

27%

2%

1%

7%

28%

22%

23%

10%

9%

13%

7%

10%

4%

21%

28%

4%13% 17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

4DS 2DS

2009 2050

Gen

erati

on s

hare

Other renewables

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Nuclear

Fossil w CCS

Fossil w/o CCS

Other renewables

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Solar

Hydro

Fossil w/o CCS

Fossil w CCS

2009 2050

© OECD/IEA 2012

Renewables growth in Europe continues but slows

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

OECD Europe forecast renewable generation

Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV

Geothermal Wind offshore CSP Ocean

TWh

Despite policy adjustments and macroeconomic situation, growth continues

All technologies have roles to play

© OECD/IEA 2012

Nuclear is one piece of the puzzle

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

Nuclear 8% (8%)

End-use fuel switching 12% (12%)

End-use fuel and electricity ef-ficiency 42% (39%)

Renewables 21% (23%)

CCS 14% (17%)

2DS

Gt C

O2

Technology contributions to reaching the 2DS

© OECD/IEA 2012

Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.

From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.

Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.

0

2 500

5 000

7 500

10 000

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

4DS

OECD Non-OECD

0

2 500

5 000

7 500

10 000

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

2DS

Natural gas as a transitional fuel

© OECD/IEA 2012

The CCS infant must grow quickly

© OECD/IEA 2012

Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt C

O2

Heating & Cooling: the forgotten giant

© OECD/IEA 2012

Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.

Electric vehicles need to come of age

© OECD/IEA 2012

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

50

100

150

200FCEV

Electricity

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Diesel hybrid

Gasoline hybrid

CNG/LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050

Glo

bal P

asse

nger

LD

V s

ales

(m

illio

n)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Manufacturers production/sales

Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)

mill

ion

sa

les/

yea

r

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)

mill

ion

sa

les/

yea

rTranslating targets into action

© OECD/IEA 2012

Government targets need to be backed by policy action

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Fuel economy makes a difference

© OECD/IEA 2012

Fuel economy improvements in conventional and hybrid vehicles alone can save 11 mbbl/day.

2010 2020 2030 2040 20502

4

6

8

10

PLDV tested fuel economy - WORLD

(new car average)

[Lg

e/1

00

km

] 6DS

Better FE

2DS

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

PLDV fuel consumption - WORLD

[bill

ion

Lge/

year

]

equivalent to 11mbbl/day reduction

6DS

Better FE

2DS(I/A/S)

© OECD/IEA 2012

Clean energy investment pays off

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

- 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

10%

Undiscounted

Fuel savings

Additionalinvestment

Tota

l sav

ings

USD trillion

Power

Industry

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Fuel savings

Additional investment

© OECD/IEA 2012

Sustainable future still in reach

© OECD/IEA 2012

Are we on track to reach a clean

energy future?

NO ✗

Can we get on track?

YES ✓

Is a clean energy transition urgent?

YES ✓

© OECD/IEA 2012

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