ESWW4, 5-9 th November 2007 ESA Activities in Space Weather A. Glover 1, E. Daly 1, R. Marsden 2 1.Space Environments and Effects Section, D/TEC,ESA/ESTEC

ESWW4, 5-9th November 2007

ESA Activities in Space Weather

A. Glover1, E. Daly1, R. Marsden2

1. Space Environments and Effects Section, D/TEC,ESA/ESTEC.

2. Research and Scientific Support Department D/Sci,ESA/ESTEC


Overview

• Background and Scope within ESA» D/TEC, D/Sci, D/HME, D/Ops, D/EOP, Galileo

• Space Weather Applications Initiative» SWENET Status and Achievements

• Space Situational Awareness

• Related Activities – SEENoTC

• Next Steps


Space Weather

• Some Space Weather Effects.. • Satellites affected by radiation,

plasma, atmosphere, particulates;• Astronauts - ISS, future

exploration missions;• Radiation hazards to air crew and

avionics;• Ground power outages from

currents induced in lines;• Disruption to communications

relying on the ionosphere;• Disruption of navigation satellite

signals (GPS - Galileo);• Prospecting;• Climate;

Definition: "conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health."


Space Weather Interests within ESA

• ESA is interested in space weather as both a provider and user of space weather data

• Pre-mission space environment analysis and recommendations for operational procedures carried out at ESTEC (D/TEC)

• Operational use of space weather data and services in support of ESA missions at ESOC & ESAC (D/Ops) with ESTEC support

• New data generated by ESA missions, either as primary goal or in the form of radiation monitor data


Science Missions Supporting Space Weather Interests

Soho

Ulysses

Cluster & Double Star

• SOHO extension to 2009, plus bonus mission

• Cluster extension until 2008• Double star extended to 2007• Ulysses, 3rd polar pass extension until

2008

Radiation Monitors onboard XMM, Integral and Rosetta spacecraft also provide valuable Information on the local space environment


Upcoming Missions• Solar Orbiter (2015)• BepiColombo (2013)• Cross-Scale Multiscale Coupling in Space

Plasmas mission selected by SSAC Oct ‘07 as Cosmic Vision candidate mission

• Proba 2 (2008) SWAP and LYRA payloads

Radiation monitors: Herschel,

Planck, LPF…


Earth Observation

• SWARM: Magnetic Field Mission (launch: 2010-2011, lifetime 5yrs)– Core dynamics and geodynamo processes– 3-D electrical conductivity of the mantle– Aims to monitor and separate the various

contributions to the Earth’s magnetic field including disturbances:

– Magnetospheric and ionospheric currents– Electromagnetic forcing of the upper

atmosphere• MetOp

– Carries SEM-2 radiation monitor– Inclined sun synchronous orbit, 817km


Galileo• Radiation environment will be harsh as the

constellation will fly through the heart of the radiation belts

• Signal propagation effects caused by the ionosphere

• Giove-A radiation environment monitors– Merlin, CEDEX– energetic proton and ion detectors, an

internal charging monitor, RADFETs and experimental dose-rate photodiodes

• Giove-B (launch 2008) will carry SREM environment monitor

• Galileo IOV will carry radiation monitors• Full constellation still tbc


Manned Spaceflight• Support to ISS

– Ops collaboration between EAC and NASA/JSC– DESIRE R&D project to characterise environment

in Columbus module• Study of radiation environment key driver in

development of exploration missions• R and D studies looking towards radiation

protection for exploration– REMSIM: Radiation Exposure and Mission

Strategies for Interplanetary Manned Missions – SEPEM: Improved statistical models and

new physics-based modelling of the helio-radial variation


The ESA Space Weather Applications Initiative


• 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather• 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe• 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop• 1999-2001: Feasibility studies of Space Weather Programme• 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team (SWWT)• 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA

management• 2001: Start preparation of ESA-SWAPP, COST724• 2003: ESA SWAPP starts• 2003: COST 724 starts• 2004: First European Space Weather Week • 2007: Where we stand now


The Space Weather Applications Pilot Project

– Sample the market for space weather services– Development of a range of individual pilot

services (SDAs) built on user requirements plus a supporting network structure and portal.

– ~5MEuro investment (2MEuro from ESA/GSP)– Questions: users?, valuable services?, need for

specific space elements?, value of coordinated approach?, organisational requirements…?


Service Demonstration: SWENET

SWENET: Network and

support architecture

for SDAs

Independent Cost and Benefit

AssessmentIonospheric Effects: Ionospheric Effects: 12 SDAs…12 SDAs…

Ground Effects: Ground Effects: 12 SDAs…12 SDAs…

Spacecraft & Aircraft Effects: Spacecraft & Aircraft Effects: 6 SDAs…6 SDAs…

Space Weather European NETwork


Infrastructure Capabilities

• Centralised access to a wide range of user driven space weather services and data– Central access point to the pilot project SDAs– Large data repository – Capability to search and combine data from different sources– Graphical display and data analysis tools– Overview of the latest SDA data and space weather indices– Daily reports, alerts and data sets via email

Approximate distribution of active users:

Industry

National Agencies

Public & Tourism

Scientific Institutes

Security

http://www.esa-spaceweather.net/swenet


SWENET Perspective• ESA/GSP support for service development concluded 2006• Majority of SDA services have identified funding for service

continuation to 2008 + ..• SWENET Portal maintenance and validation phase continuing

– Inclusion of new SDAs – Validation of new data and services: demonstration of added value– Improvement of data analysis via portal capabilities – Consultation with SDA community on future requirements

• Usage statistics (Based on Jan – Jul 2007): – 4000 visitors/month– 50,000 pages served (not including search engines)

• SDA community continue to meet and collaborate. Next SWENET meeting Splinter 1 this afternoon

• Coordination with national activities and other groups e.g. ISES, COST 724, COST 296, NOAA/SEC (now SWPC), ILWS End Users Task Group…


Benefit Data By Industry

• Growth indicated by industry– note airlines included in ionospheric &

consequently strong increase in benefit when automated landing taken up


Net Benefit Trends

LoS1: relies on continued GB Networks and provides mainlyNowcasts.

LoS3: Has low external Dependencies, is more costly, Provides forecasts and Ultimately larger benefits.

LoS2: Potentially high benefitsBut also high risks. Permanent hitch-hiker solutionc.f. GOES/SEM Arrangement could reduce risks


Strategic Issues• impacts of SW on Europe’s strategic space assets

(Galileo, GMES, telecoms EO..)• impacts of SW on European space infrastructure

(launch, environment monitoring (including situational awareness), manned spaceflight)

• impacts on social infrastructure and economy (energy supply and distribution, emergency relief systems)

• Security issues (HF comms and radar)• ….

These benefits difficult to quantify but report notes space weather services have both potential economic and strategic benefit for Europe


Space Situational Awareness


Framework/Context

Space Situation Awareness is a concept that has grown out of the increasing dependence of the modern world on space systems – telecom, navigation, surveillance, etc.

Concept originates with US military – but civilian systems (particularly in Europe) are just as susceptible – Europe needs to develop both policy and capacity.


Motivation for action on Space Weather • Recent initiatives have revealed both space weather needs and skills

bases in Europe• Development of a more coordinated European approach could be used

to strengthen international cooperation & exchange on basis of partnership.

• At the same time there is a perceived need to build a European framework in the context of Space Situational Awareness.

• Space weather is seen as one of three axes for Space Situational Awareness : – Survey, Tracking, – Imaging – Space weather (space environment monitoring)

At present it is proposed to introduce at the next ESA Ministerial Council an ESA Optional Programme for Space Situational Awareness which may include an element of space weather


Possible Content• Develop an ESA-led space weather initiative, including

the establishment of a European Centre for Space Weather Services as part of an optional Space Situational Awareness programme

• The initiative would aim to: – Provide a focal point for coordinating ongoing European activities

of the kind initiated in the framework of the Space Weather Applications Pilot Project and SWENET

– Provide a stable nucleus for the development, testing and deployment of future space weather services in Europe

• Proposal in preparation• Ongoing community consultation process

– See splinter meeting on Wednesday afternoon 14:00


Space Environments and Effects Network of Technical

Competences (SEENoTC)


• Goals: – to reinforce the coordination of existing and planned space

environments and effects related activities in Europe, – implementation of a coherent European programme of

activities in the domain, • Domain:

– energetic particle radiation and its effects on systems, payloads and humans;

– natural and induced plasma environments and their interactions with spacecraft, and resulting effects on systems and payloads

– Explicitly excluded are space debris, micrometeoroid and thermal environments.

– Explicitly included are space weather effects on spacecraft

Overview of SEENoTC Responsibilities


Organisation

• Working Group– National representatives responsible for collecting inputs from

communities– Responsible for drawing up roadmaps and identifying areas for

coordination and financial support– SWWT Chairman is a member of the WG, responsible for

making recommendations from this community

• Steering Board– National representatives from agencies and funding bodies– Approve roadmaps annually

• Supports activities that build on the main coordination goals of the network


• Space weather interests a broad cross section of ESA from missions geared to furthering our understanding of underlying phenomena through to protecting ESA spacecraft from its effects

• The SWENET network provides an operational network of user-oriented space weather services– Clear evidence of interest from industry– Input on future requirements solicited from SDA community– Cost and benefit analysis indicates significant potential growth in the

market for space weather services in several areas– Strong community support for maintaining SWENET demonstrated at

ESWWs

• Work in progress in the area of Space Situational Awareness• Scope for coordination of activities geared towards space weather effects

on spacecraft via the SEENoTC

• National activities developing: e.g. in France, Germany, Belgium, Spain…

Summary


Next Steps

• Short Term: – Next meeting of SWENET community: Splinter 1 this afternoon– Next consultation meeting on SSA: Splinter 3 Wednesday

• Longer Term: – Work will continue on an SSA proposal into 2008– ESA to further investigate how to build on successful outcome of

the space weather applications pilot project– In parallel, ESA’s normal R and D programmes will continue to

support space environment related applications activities. – Continue and expand policy of flying radiation monitors on ESA s/c,

ensuring processing and full exploitation of these data

– Continued collaboration with other national and international space weather initiatives

Documents

ESWW4, 5-9 th November 2007 ESA Activities in Space Weather A. Glover 1, E. Daly 1, R. Marsden 2 1.Space Environments and Effects Section, D/TEC,ESA/ESTEC