Estimation of Damage and LossesEstimation of Damage and Lossesafter Disastersafter Disasters

Livestock Sub-SectorLivestock Sub-Sector

Disasters and Livestock Disasters and Livestock

Domestic animals may die due to the effects of Domestic animals may die due to the effects of any type of disaster, thus reducing the animal any type of disaster, thus reducing the animal stock of the affected areas. Livestock stock of the affected areas. Livestock infrastructure may also sustain destruction infrastructure may also sustain destruction ((DamageDamage))

After a disaster, output of meat, milk, eggs and After a disaster, output of meat, milk, eggs and other livestock by-products may decline due other livestock by-products may decline due death, illness or stress of the animals, and higher death, illness or stress of the animals, and higher costs may be incurred to provide veterinarian costs may be incurred to provide veterinarian attention, water and feed to the animals (attention, water and feed to the animals (LossesLosses))

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Typical disaster effectsTypical disaster effects

DamageDamage

Destruction of sector Destruction of sector infrastructureinfrastructure

Destruction of Destruction of pasturelandspasturelands

Death of domestic animalsDeath of domestic animals

LossesLossesDecline in production Decline in production of of meat, milk, cheese, eggs, meat, milk, cheese, eggs, etceteraetcetera

Higher costs of productionHigher costs of production-Provision of veterinarian Provision of veterinarian attentionattention-Higher costs of water and Higher costs of water and feedfeed

Until animal stock recovers Until animal stock recovers through natural growththrough natural growth

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How to estimate damage and lossesHow to estimate damage and losses

DamageDamage

Determine number of animals Determine number of animals that have died due to disasterthat have died due to disaster

timestimes (*) (*)

Prices paid to farmers under Prices paid to farmers under normal conditionsnormal conditions

plusplus (+) (+)

Value of replacing destroyed Value of replacing destroyed infrastructure and pastureinfrastructure and pasture

LossesLossesProduction losses of each by-Production losses of each by-

product due to death or product due to death or illness of animalsillness of animals

timestimes (*) (*)

Period required for cattle stock Period required for cattle stock to recoverto recover

timestimes (*) (*)

Unit price paid to farmers for Unit price paid to farmers for each producteach product

plusplus (+): (+):

Cost of animal treatment for Cost of animal treatment for diseases, water and animal diseases, water and animal

feedfeed

Application to Kenya droughtApplication to Kenya drought

1.1. Obtain data on animal stock by type of Obtain data on animal stock by type of animal prevailing in 2007animal prevailing in 2007

2.2. For each Province/District, and for years For each Province/District, and for years 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, determine2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, determine

– Number of animals that died due to Number of animals that died due to droughtdrought

– Prices of animals paid to farmers in Prices of animals paid to farmers in normal conditionsnormal conditions

3. Determine time required for natural 3. Determine time required for natural replacement of animals of each typereplacement of animals of each type

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Application to Kenya drought..Application to Kenya drought..

4. Determine number of animals producing 4. Determine number of animals producing meat, milk, cheese, eggs and other by-meat, milk, cheese, eggs and other by-productsproducts

5. Determine/estimate unit production of above 5. Determine/estimate unit production of above per animal (kg of meat/animal, liters of per animal (kg of meat/animal, liters of milk/animal, etcetera)milk/animal, etcetera)

6. Determine annual or monthly production of 6. Determine annual or monthly production of each by-product, and average unit prices paid each by-product, and average unit prices paid to farmersto farmers

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Application to Kenya drought…Application to Kenya drought…

7. Determine number of animals that 7. Determine number of animals that contracted diseasecontracted disease

8. Estimate decline (%) in unit production 8. Estimate decline (%) in unit production of by-products per animal due to diseaseof by-products per animal due to disease

9. Obtain unit costs per animal of9. Obtain unit costs per animal of

– Veterinarian attentionVeterinarian attention

– Providing water and feedProviding water and feed

10. Determine losses due to early sale of 10. Determine losses due to early sale of animals, if anyanimals, if any

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