Upload
andre-dantas
View
308
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Livestock evacuation or not:Livestock evacuation or not:An Emergency Response
Assessment Of Natural Disasters
Dr. Thomas Wilson
Dr. André Dantas
Professor Jim Cole
Resilient Organisations Research Programme
Christchurch, New Zealand
Presentation outline
•Context
•Logistics of livestock evacuation
•Assessment framework
•Conclusions
•Case study
Context
What to do with livestock?
Evacuation or not?
How to deal with large volumes to be transported?
How to coordinate efforts?
Which types of animals to evacuate?
Logistics
•Warning
•Event observation
•Event assessment
•Updating
•Action
•Re-assessment
Logistics processes and decision making
Assessment framework
•Define the livestock evacuation scenario
•Assign available trucks to affected areas
•Compute loading time
•Conduct network analysis
•Identify “safe” destinations
•Assess the livestock evacuation performance
•Decision making
CaseStudy
Volcanic eruption scenario
Distribution ash fall
Given a 50 mm ash fall:
•528 farms selected for evacuation;
•77,199 hectares;
•208 thousand cows;
•Urban centres exposed to 2mm-ash fall considered not safe destinations;
CaseStudy
Assignment of available trucks to affected areas
Using existing and specifically designed livestock truck and trailer units
•Full evacuation – 5520 truck trips;
•Full efficient evacuation – 5004 truck trips; and
•Partial (50%) evacuation – 2902 truck trips.
CaseStudy
Identification of “safe” destinations
Cows evacuated to urban centres located over 200 Km from the volcano
CaseStudy
Network Analysis
Travel Time Total Time Evacuation Plan
Traffic Assignment Method
Hours Days Hours Days
All or nothing 27,061 1,127.5 43,621 1,817.5
User optimum 27,823 1,159 44,383 1,849
1
(Full Evacuation) System optimum 27,760 1,157 44,320 1847
All or nothing 24,162 1,007 39,174 1,632.5
User optimum 24,698 1,029 39,710 1,654.5
2
(Full efficient evacuation) System optimum 24,641 1,027 39,653 1,652.5
All or nothing 14,013 584 22,719 947
User optimum 14,440 602 23,146 965
3
(Partial evacuation) System optimum 14,413 601 23,119 964
CaseStudy
Assessment of the livestock evacuation performanceScenario
Plan Estimated Loading/
Unloading Time Cost
Traffic Assignment
Method
Estimated Travel
Time Cost
Total Estimated Evacuation
Transport Cost
All or nothing 1,304 2,102
User optimum 1,341 2,139
1 (Full
Evacuation)
798
System optimum
1,338 2,136
All or nothing 1,164 1,888
User optimum 1,190 1,914 2
(Full efficient
Evacuation)
723
System optimum
1,187 1,911
All or nothing 675 1,095
User optimum 696 1,115
3 (Partial
evacuation)
419
System optimum
694 1,114
CaseStudy
Assessment of the livestock evacuation performance
Stock Trucks Required Deadline 7 days 10 days 14 days 21 days 28 days
Evacuation Scenario 1
264 185 132 88 66
Evacuation Scenario 2
236 165 118 79 59
Evacuation Scenario 3
137 97 69 46 34
CaseStudy
Decision making
•extreme difficulty in evacuating the required number of dairy cows in an acceptable period of time;
•likely and feasible that a small, limited evacuation of livestock of high genetic value and diversity could be undertaken
•need for at least a 3 month warning to implement an effective evacuation of all livestock.
Conclusion
•Each type of hazard will pose different levels of logistics challenge in terms of livestock evacuation;
•Livestock evacuation due to volcanic eruption:
•No enough time;
•Considerable vehicle requirements;
•Efficiency if sophisticated vehicle control techniques are employed;
•Doubtful if surrounding farms can accommodate additional cows;
•Full scale livestock evacuation should NOT be attempted;
•Mitigation options should be put in place to minimize likely losses.