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Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field
MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)
(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean
Oil Fields 1 19 51 97 54 21 60 125 65 0 1 3 1 3 7 14 7
Gas Fields 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA
Total 1.00 19 51 97 54 21 60 125 65 0 1 3 1
1.00
Espirito Santo Shelf, Assessment Unit 60340101Assessment Results Summary
[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect
positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]
Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)
60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 120.00 MMBOEntire range is from 5.41 to 160.86 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.11
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 53.79Median 50.92Mode ---Standard Deviation 23.90Variance 571.04Skewness 0.47Kurtosis 2.70Coefficient of Variability 0.44Range Minimum 5.41Range Maximum 160.86Range Width 155.45Mean Standard Error 0.11
Frequency Chart
MMBO
.000
.005
.010
.016
.021
0
259.5
519
778.5
1038
0.00 30.00 60.00 90.00 120.00
50,000 Trials 226 Outliers
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields
Page 1
60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBO100% 5.4195% 19.2690% 24.6085% 28.6880% 32.2375% 35.5170% 38.6165% 41.5960% 44.6055% 47.7050% 50.9245% 54.2940% 57.7335% 61.5830% 65.5425% 69.8920% 74.7815% 80.5010% 87.545% 97.140% 160.86
End of Forecast
Page 2
60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 150.00 BCFGEntire range is from 4.48 to 263.26 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.14
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 64.59Median 59.59Mode ---Standard Deviation 32.18Variance 1,035.59Skewness 0.78Kurtosis 3.49Coefficient of Variability 0.50Range Minimum 4.48Range Maximum 263.26Range Width 258.79Mean Standard Error 0.14
Frequency Chart
BCFG
.000
.005
.010
.015
.020
0
250.5
501
751.5
1002
0.00 37.50 75.00 112.50 150.00
50,000 Trials 678 Outliers
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields
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60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile BCFG100% 4.4895% 21.2490% 27.2185% 32.0080% 36.2775% 40.1870% 44.0765% 47.8460% 51.7355% 55.6250% 59.5945% 63.7540% 68.1635% 72.9230% 78.0725% 83.8220% 90.5215% 98.6110% 109.345% 125.270% 263.26
End of Forecast
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60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 3.50 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.07 to 6.10 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.00
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1.29Median 1.16Mode ---Standard Deviation 0.71Variance 0.50Skewness 1.04Kurtosis 4.40Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 0.07Range Maximum 6.10Range Width 6.02Mean Standard Error 0.00
Frequency Chart
MMBNGL
.000
.006
.012
.018
.024
0
298.2
596.5
894.7
1193
0.00 0.88 1.75 2.63 3.50
50,000 Trials 453 Outliers
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields
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60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.0795% 0.3990% 0.5185% 0.6080% 0.6875% 0.7670% 0.8465% 0.9260% 1.0055% 1.0850% 1.1645% 1.2540% 1.3435% 1.4430% 1.5625% 1.6920% 1.8315% 2.0110% 2.265% 2.640% 6.10
End of Forecast
Page 6
60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Oil Field
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 17.50 MMBOEntire range is from 1.45 to 20.00 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.01
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 7.37Median 6.60Mode ---Standard Deviation 3.31Variance 10.94Skewness 1.17Kurtosis 4.29Coefficient of Variability 0.45Range Minimum 1.45Range Maximum 20.00Range Width 18.55Mean Standard Error 0.01
Frequency Chart
MMBO
.000
.007
.015
.022
.029
0
364.7
729.5
1459
0.00 4.38 8.75 13.13 17.50
50,000 Trials 637 Outliers
Forecast: Largest Oil Field
Page 7
60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Oil Field (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBO100% 1.4595% 3.4190% 3.9385% 4.3280% 4.6675% 4.9970% 5.3165% 5.6160% 5.9355% 6.2550% 6.6045% 6.9840% 7.3935% 7.8330% 8.3525% 8.9520% 9.7115% 10.6510% 11.995% 14.270% 20.00
End of Forecast
Page 8
60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Assumptions
Assumption: Number of Oil Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 3Likeliest 15Maximum 45
Selected range is from 3 to 45Mean value in simulation was 21
Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 1.57 2.57Standard Deviation 1.92 1.92
Selected range is from 0.00 to 19.00 1.00 to 20.00Mean value in simulation was 1.55 2.55
3 14 24 35 45
Number of Oil Fields
Page 9
60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (cont'd)
Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 600.00Likeliest 1,200.00Maximum 1,800.00
Selected range is from 600.00 to 1,800.00Mean value in simulation was 1,199.85
0.06 4.40 8.75 13.09 17.44
Sizes of Oil Fields
600.00 900.00 1,200.00 1,500.00 1,800.00
GOR in Oil Fields
Page 10
60340101Espirito Santo ShelfMonte Carlo Results
Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 10.00Likeliest 20.00Maximum 30.00
Selected range is from 10.00 to 30.00Mean value in simulation was 19.98
End of Assumptions
Simulation started on 11/17/99 at 15:52:27Simulation stopped on 11/17/99 at 16:09:59
10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
LGR in Oil Fields
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