ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview ( March 2012 ) April 12, 2012

ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview (March 2012)

April 12, 2012

Grid Operations & Planning

3

Content

• Operations– Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind– CPS1 Monthly Performance– Historical Peak and Minimum Loads– Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance– Reliability Unit Commitment Capacity (RUC) by weather zone – Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs)– Advisories, Watches and EEAs– Significant System Incidents– Cooling Reservoir Level Update

• Planning Activities– Summary– Generation Interconnection Requests– Wind Capacity

ERCOT PublicApril 12, 2012

4

March 2012 Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs. Forecast, Wind Day-Ahead COPs & On-line Capacity at Peak

Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from COPs, and EMMS.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

MW

Actual Peak Load

Actual Online Capacity

Actual Wind Output

ERCOT Load Day-Ahead Forecast

Wind Day-Ahead COPs

Peak Demand for the Month: 42,711 MW @ 3/31/12 HE 18:00


5

March 2012 Actual Wind Output plus Curtailments vs. Wind Day-Ahead COPs for All Hours

Note: QSEs must use the AWST 50% probability of exceedance forecast as the HSL in their COPs

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

MW

Operating DayDaily Averaged Aggregated Wind Output Estimated Wind Curtailment Daily Averaged Day-Ahead COP HSL

% of Hours when Estimated Uncurtailed Wind Output >= COP HSLs (Target = 50%)

52%


6

March 2012 ERCOT’s CPS1 Monthly Performance

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

CP

S1

Av

era

ge

Monthly Average 12 Month Rolling Average

CPS1 12 Month Rolling Average = 152.45%


7

March 2012 Monthly Peak Actual Demand

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

MW

Month

2011

2012Peak Demand is Peak Interval Demand


8

March 2012 Monthly Minimum Actual Demand

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

MW

Month

2011

2012Minimum Demand is Valley Interval Demand


9

Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance in March 2012

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for ERCOT Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF) Run at 14:00 Day Ahead

2009MAPE

2010MAPE

2011MAPE

2012MAPE

March 2012MAPE

AverageAnnual MAPE

3.11 2.83 2.83 2.98 3.49

LowestMonthly

MAPE1.93 2.24 1.63 2.51

LowestDailyMAPE

1.43Mar – 23

HighestMonthly

MAPE 4.11 3.79 3.55 3.49

Highest DailyMAPE

6.16Mar – 26


10

Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Capacity by weather zone in March 2012

2

1

2

1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

FAR WEST NORTH

Days

Weather Zone

RUC Commitments by Weather Zone

Unit-Days RUC Total Days


11

March 2012 Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs)

GTL: A transmission flow limit more constraining than a Transmission Element’s normal limit established to constrain flow between geographic areas of the ERCOT Transmission System that is used to enforce stability and voltage constraints that cannot be modeled directly in ERCOT’s transmission security analysis applications.

Note: This table lists how many times a constraint has been activated to avoid exceeding a GTL limit, it does not imply an exceedance of the GTL occurred.

GTLsMar 11DaysGTLs

Jan 12DaysGTLs

Feb 12DaysGTLs

Mar 12DaysGTLs

Last 12 Months

Total Days (Mar11 – Mar12)

North – Houston 0 0 0 0 2

West – North 26 26 17 17Mar(5-8,14-21,24-27,31)

244

Valley Import 3 0 0 0 3


12

Advisories and Watches in March 2012

• Advisories issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 3000 MW.– Issued 13 Days

• Watches issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 2500 MW.– 1 Watch issued for PRC below 2500 MW.

• Transmission Watches– March 8th At 13:32 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch due to contingency overload.– March 19th At 13:50 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch due post contingency overload due to forced outages in

Hillsboro area. A TOAP was developed and put in place.– March 26th At 13:56 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for the Far West area.– March 27th At 11:31 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for the Far West area.– March 29th At 14:47 ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for the Far West area due to a planned bus outage.

• Energy Emergency Alerts– None


13

Cooling Reservoir Levels Update – 01 April 2012

Surface Water & (MW)*Level @ Full Conservation

Pool*Level on

Jan 1, 2011*Level on

Oct 7 , 2011*Level on

Apr 01, 2012

Lake Texana (56) 44.50 41.00 32.81 44.05

Bardwell Lake (312) 421.00 420.71 416.23 425.47

Lake Colorado City (407) 2,070.20 2057.33 2052.4 2,051.70

Lake Ray Hubbard (916) 435.50 432.37 429.22 435.55

Lake Granbury (983) 693.00 691.90 686.27 692.72

Lake Houston (1016) 41.73 42.10 36.76 42.14

Twin Oaks Reservoir (1616) 400 398.87 398.27 401.02

Lake Limestone (1689) 363 359.03 354 363.17

Martin Lake (2425) 306 300.48 295.06 301.68

* In Feet above Mean Sea Level


14

Planning Summary – March 2012

· ERCOT is currently tracking 128 active generation interconnection requests totaling over 34,000 MW. This includes over 19,000 MW of wind generation.

• ERCOT is currently reviewing proposed transmission improvements with a total cost of $74.2 Million

• Transmission Projects endorsed in 2012 total $394 Million• All projects (in engineering, routing, licensing and

construction) total approximately $9.84 Billion• Transmission Projects energized in 2012 total about $108.8

million


15

County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (all fuels) March 2012


16

County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (Wind) March 2012


17

Wind Generation – March 2012

9,838

2,122 2,324 2,444

116

816 977 1,173 1,385 1,854

2,875

4,785

8,005

8,916 9,400 9,604

11,960 12,162 12,282

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MW

Cumulative MW Installed

Cumulative Planned (Signed Interconnection Agreement)

ERCOT Wind Installations by Year (as of March 31, 2012)

The data presented here is based upon the latest registration data provided to ERCOT by the resource owners and can change without notice. Any capacity changes will be reflected in current and subsequent years' totals. Scheduling delays will also be reflected in the planned projects as that information is received.

This chart now reflects planned units in calendar year of installation rather than installation by peak of year shown


18

Generation Interconnection Activity by Fuel – March 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jan-

06F

eb-

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Ma

r-0

6A

pr-0

6M

ay-

06Ju

n-06

Jul-0

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ug-0

6S

ep-0

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ct-0

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n-07

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b-0

7M

ar-

07

Apr

-07

Ma

y-07

Jun-

07Ju

l-07

Aug

-07

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08F

eb-

08

Ma

r-0

8A

pr-0

8M

ay-

08Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8A

ug-0

8S

ep-0

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ct-0

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ov-0

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8Ja

n-09

Fe

b-0

9M

ar-

09

Apr

-09

Ma

y-09

Jun-

09Ju

l-09

Aug

-09

Sep

-09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10F

eb-

10

Ma

r-1

0A

pr-1

0M

ay-

10Ju

n-10

Jul-1

0A

ug-1

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ep-1

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ct-1

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ov-1

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ec-1

0Ja

n-11

Fe

b-1

1M

ar-

11

Apr

-11

Ma

y-11

Jun-

11Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

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-11

Jan-

12F

eb-

12

Ma

r-1

2

Pro

ject

Co

un

t

MW

Cap

acit

y

MW Natural Gas MW Nuclear MW Coal MW Wind MW Solar *

MW Biomass * MW Other Total # Projects # Projects Cancelled

* Prior to September 2008, Category "Other" included "Solar" and "Biomass"Projects in all phases of interconnection study are reflected in this graphProject cancellation tracking by month began in March 2008


19

Generation Interconnection Activity by Project Phase – March 2012

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0

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100

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400Ja

n-06

Fe

b-0

6M

ar-

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Apr

-06

Ma

y-06

Jun-

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l-06

Aug

-06

Sep

-06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

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-06

Jan-

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eb-

07

Ma

r-0

7A

pr-0

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ay-

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n-07

Jul-0

7A

ug-0

7S

ep-0

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ct-0

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ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-08

Fe

b-0

8M

ar-

08

Apr

-08

Ma

y-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09F

eb-

09

Ma

r-0

9A

pr-0

9M

ay-

09Ju

n-09

Jul-0

9A

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9S

ep-0

9O

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ov-0

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n-10

Fe

b-1

0M

ar-

10

Apr

-10

Ma

y-10

Jun-

10Ju

l-10

Aug

-10

Sep

-10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

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Jan-

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eb-

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Ma

r-1

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pr-1

1M

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n-11

Jul-1

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n-12

Fe

b-1

2M

ar-

12

MW

Ca

pa

cit

y

Pro

jec

t Co

un

t# In-Service ** # Full Study Suspended # Signed Interconnect Agreement

# Projects Cancelled *** # Completed Full Study # in Full Study

# Screening Study Complete # Initial Screening Study MW Capacity Under Study *

MW In Commercial Operation **

* Nameplate capacity will change across time due to additional projects, cancellations, expirations, adjustments from study results, and projects being placed in service.

** Having begun commercial operation since January 2006

*** Began tracking cancellations by month in March 2008


Market Operations

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000 Scheduled Energy Only Offer

Scheduled Three-part Offer

DAM Energy Purchase

RT System Load

DAM Net Flow

MW

Liquidity and activity is normal in Day-Ahead Market

DAM_Net_Flow = Combined market transmission flow of Energy purchased/sold in Day-Ahead Market plus Point-to-Point Obligations and NOIE CRR Options carried forward to real-time.

April 12, 2012

Day-Ahead Schedule – March 2012

ERCOT Public

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Day-Ahead Electricity And Ancillary Service Hourly Average Prices – March 2012

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

10

20

30

40

Regulation Up

Regulation Down

Responsive Reserve

Non Spinning Reserve

DAM Power Balance Price (System Lambda)

Pri

ce

($

/MW

h)

Ancillary Service price reflect the opportunity cost of energy

April 12, 2012 ERCOT Public

23

Day-Ahead Vs Real-Time Load Zone SPP(Hourly Average) – March 2012

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

20

40

60

80

100

120 RTSPP - LZ West

RTSPP - LZ North

RTSPP - LZ South

RTSPP - LZ Houston

DASPP - LZ West

DASPP - LZ North

DASPP - LZ South

DASPP - LZ Houston

Pri

ce

($

/MW

h)

Prices reflect relative transmission congestion and system scarcity


24

Day-Ahead Vs Real-Time Hub Average SPP (Hourly Average) – March 2012

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

20

40

60

80

100

120 RTSPP - Hub Average

DASPP - Hub Average

Pri

ce

($

/MW

h)

Average Real-Time energy prices were higher than Day-Ahead mainly due toLocal congestion caused by transmission outages and

low wind in the West Zone during the last weekScarcity during peak hours on two days


25

DRUC Monthly Summary – March 2012

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000 Self Scheduled Capacity

Self Scheduled Ancillary Service Limit

Load Forecast

DRUC Recommended Capacity

MW

h

30 executions (1 missed due to DAM delay)None published after 16004.3 minutes average execution timeNo Resources committed


26

HRUC Monthly Summary – March 2012

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

MW

h

743 executions (1 disapproved due to DAM delay)4.9 minute average execution time

Colors Indicate Individual Resources

Two resources were committed for voltage support


27

Non-Spinning Reserve Service Deployment – March 2012

Deployment Start Time

Deployment End Time

Deployment Duration (Hours)

Max Deployment (MW)

Reason

3/9/2012 18:34 3/9/2012 20:06 1.5 1958.9 Capacity

3/26/2012 14:07 3/26/2012 15:07 1 254 Voltage Support

3/27/2012 7:15 3/29/2012 12:20 53.1 295 Voltage Support

3/29/2012 14:25 3/31/2012 23:58 57.6 220 Voltage Support

3/31/2012 16:41 3/31/2012 18:42 2 320 Capacity


28

CRR Price Convergence – March 2012

Congestion Revenue Right cost in auction convergence with payment in Day-Ahead Market


29

Reliability Services – March 2012

Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) $ in Millions

RUC Make-Whole Payments ($0.01)

RUC Clawback Charges $0.00

RUC Commitment Settlement ($0.01)

RUC Capacity Short Charges $0.01

RUC Make-Whole Uplift $0.00

RUC Commitment Cost Allocation $0.00

RUC Decommitment Payments $0.00

RUC Cost continue to trend low as compared to previous months.

March 2012 cost was $0.01M, compared to:• A charge of $0M in Feb 2012• A charge of $0.9M in March 2011


30

Ancillary Services – March 2012

Capacity Services $ in Millions

Regulation Up Service $3.4

Regulation Down Service $1.4

Responsive Reserve Service $12.2

Non-Spinning Reserve Service $8.1

Black Start Service $0.6

Voltage Support Service $0.00

Total Capacity Service $25.61

Capacity Services costs were slightly increased from last month.

March 2012 cost was $25.61M, compared to:• A charge of $14.87M in Feb 2012• A charge of $36.21M in March 2011


31

Energy Settlement – March 2012

Day-Ahead and Real-Time energy settlement similar to February, but much lower than the average costs in 2011 and reflective of lower prices seen year-to-date in 2012.

Day-Ahead Market Energy Settlement $ in Millions

Energy Purchases $273.75

Point to Point Obligation Purchases $22.81

RMR Day-Ahead Revenue $0.00

Energy Sales ($265.77)

Day-Ahead Congestion Rent $30.80

Day-Ahead Market Make-Whole Payments ($0.26)

ERCOT Public

Real-Time Market Energy Settlement $ in Millions

Energy Imbalance at a Resource Node ($404.36)

Energy Imbalance at a Load Zone $580.78

Energy Imbalance at a Hub ($147.44)

Real Time Congestion from Self Schedules $1.55

Block Load Transfers and DC Ties ($2.50)

Impact to Revenue Neutrality $28.03

Emergency Energy Payments ($0.05)

Base Point Deviation Charges $0.31

Real-Time Metered Generation (MWh in millions) 23.24

April 12, 2012

32

Congestion Revenue Rights (CRR) – March 2012

Auction Disbursements $ in Millions

Annual Auction ($13.94)

Monthly Auction ($6.78)

Total Auction Revenue ($20.72)

Day-Ahead CRR Settlement ($22.87)

Day-Ahead CRR Short-Charges $0.33

Day-Ahead CRR Short-Charges Refunded ($0.33)

Real-Time CRR Settlement ($1.59)

Real-Time CRR Short-Charges $0.01

Real-Time CRR Short-Charges Refunded ($0.01)

Total CRR Proceeds ($24.46)

Day-Ahead Point to Point Obligations Settlement $22.81

Real-Time Point to Point Obligation Settlement ($34.73)

Net Point to Point Obligation Settlement ($11.91)

• Congestion Revenue Rights were fully funded.

• Excess funds available for distribution to load.


33

Revenue Neutrality – March 2012

Revenue Neutrality Settlement $ in Millions

Real-Time Point to Point Obligation Settlement ($34.73)

Real-Time Point to Point Options and Options with Refund Settlement ($1.59)

Real-Time Energy Imbalance Settlement $28.98

Real-Time Congestion from Self-Schedules Settlement $1.55

DC Tie & Block Load Transfer Settlement ($2.50)

Charge to Load $8.29

Revenue Neutrality trending higher, increase can be attributed to pockets of local congestion causing prices to spike.

March 2012 was a charge of $8.29M, compared to:• $0.23M in Feb 2012• $1.13M in Mar 2011


34

Net Uplift to Load – March 2012

Net uplift to load trending higher, increases can be attributed to overall increases in Revenue Neutrality and Ancillary Services.

March 2012 was a charge of $14.67M, compared to:• $2.5M in Feb 2012• $27.3M in Mar 2011

Market-Based Uplifts $ in Millions

CRR Auction Revenue Disbursement Settlement ($20.72)

Balancing Account Proceeds Settlement ($7.97)

Net Reliability Unit Commitment Settlement $0.01

Ancillary Services Settlement $25.61

Reliability Must Run Services Settlement $0.0

Real-Time Revenue Neutrality Settlement $8.29

Emergency Energy Settlement $0.05

Base Point Deviation Settlement ($0.31)

Total $4.96

Fee Uplifts

ERCOT Administrative Fee Settlement $9.72

Net Uplift Charge to Load $14.67


35

Advanced Meter Settlement Impacts – March 2012

ERCOT Public

March 2012: Now settling 4.8M ESIIDs using Advanced Meter data.

March 2012: 84.2% of the load in ERCOT is settled with 15-min interval data (AMS, Competitive IDR, and NOIE IDR).

April 12, 2012

36

ERCOT Wide Load Volumes by Meter Type – INITIAL Settlement – March 2012


37

Retail Transaction Volumes – Summary – March 2012

Year-To-Date Transactions Completed

Transaction Type Mar 2012 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Mar 2011

Switches 225,187 185,064 62,510 69,203

Move - Ins 521,927 507,209 178,721 188,501

Move - Outs 249,847 256,296 83,955 95,869

Continuous Service Agreements (CSA) 126,208 105,246 50,107 40,956

Mass Transitions 0 7,187 0 0

Total 1,123,169 1,035,728 375,293 394,529

Total since June 1, 2001 46,048,013


38

Retail Transaction Volumes – Summary – March 2012

ERCOT Public

Switches Move-Ins

Move-Outs Mass Transition

April 12, 2012

39

Retail Performance Measures – Switch – March 2012

ERCOT Public

1st Quarter 2nd Quarter

3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

April 12, 2012

40

Retail Performance Measures (Priority Move-In) – March 2012

ERCOT Public



April 12, 2012

41

Retail Performance Measures (Standard Move-In) – March 2012

ERCOT Public



April 12, 2012

Projects Report

43

ERCOT Portfolio Stoplight Report (as of 4/6/2012)


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Documents

ERCOT Monthly Operational Overview ( March 2012 ) April 12, 2012