Environment Environment TWGTWGSemi Annual Semi Annual MeetingMeeting

Cornwall, OntarioCornwall, Ontario

October 16, 2003October 16, 2003

Study Guiding Study Guiding PrinciplesPrinciples

Study Board has defined several guiding Study Board has defined several guiding principles to help direct the study (August principles to help direct the study (August 2003, handout available)2003, handout available)

Two that are important to this groupTwo that are important to this groupA) Criteria and regulation plans will be A) Criteria and regulation plans will be

environmentally environmentally sustainable and respect the sustainable and respect the integrity of the Lake Ontario –integrity of the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River St. Lawrence River ecosystemecosystem

B) Criteria and Regulation plans will product a net B) Criteria and Regulation plans will product a net benefit benefit to the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system to the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system and its and its users and not result in disproportionate loss users and not result in disproportionate loss to any to any particular interest or geographic study area.particular interest or geographic study area.

ETWG DirectionETWG Direction

Plan of StudyPlan of Study Geographic scope: L.Ontario to Lac Geographic scope: L.Ontario to Lac

St. Pierre, Quebec- unchangedSt. Pierre, Quebec- unchanged Effect of water level fluctuations on Effect of water level fluctuations on

the “natural environment”the “natural environment” Define effects, resulting from Define effects, resulting from

regulation of the Lake Ontario –St. regulation of the Lake Ontario –St. Lawrence SystemLawrence System

Study PlanStudy Plan

Studies required ETWG to Studies required ETWG to determine the effects of past water determine the effects of past water level regulation on biological level regulation on biological organisms and their habitatsorganisms and their habitats

Potential effects of proposed new Potential effects of proposed new regulation plans on biota and regulation plans on biota and habitat.habitat.

ETWG Study OverviewETWG Study Overview

How do we define issuesHow do we define issues Public ConcernsPublic Concerns Study GoalStudy Goal Plan of Study Plan of Study

Source ToolsSource Tools Professional judgmentProfessional judgment Site Specific StudiesSite Specific Studies Modeling Modeling Existing DataExisting Data

ETWG Study OverviewETWG Study Overview

Two types of studiesTwo types of studies Studies that determine the effects Studies that determine the effects

of past water level regulation on of past water level regulation on biological organisms and their biological organisms and their habitatshabitats

Studies to determine the potential Studies to determine the potential impacts of proposed new regulation impacts of proposed new regulation plans on biota and habitatplans on biota and habitat

Study ProgressStudy Progress

Board Meetings- Rochester, Buffalo, Board Meetings- Rochester, Buffalo, Montreal.Montreal.

ETWG at Rochester and MontrealETWG at Rochester and Montreal Major ETWG issues- Budget, Economic Major ETWG issues- Budget, Economic

Valuation and Study Goals and ObjectivesValuation and Study Goals and Objectives ETWG meetings- last one in February, but ETWG meetings- last one in February, but

integration group has met 3 times to solve integration group has met 3 times to solve process and technical problemsprocess and technical problems

ETWG BudgetETWG Budget

Approved Budgets 2003/2004Approved Budgets 2003/2004 Canadian Committed Canadian Committed $1,214,000$1,214,000 United States CommittedUnited States Committed

$707,280$707,280 Next year/this year the budget in Next year/this year the budget in

total is expected to be Canada: total is expected to be Canada: $835CDN in March 2004 ; US $835CDN in March 2004 ; US $200US now. $200US now.

ETWG Admin.ScheduleETWG Admin.Schedule US Fiscal Year EndUS Fiscal Year End October 29- PFEG SVM WorkshopOctober 29- PFEG SVM Workshop November 1, 2003- Canadian Interim Report and November 1, 2003- Canadian Interim Report and

Invoices Invoices November 21November 21stst, 2003 – Integration Subgroup Meeting, 2003 – Integration Subgroup Meeting December 2-3 Board Meeting, Workplans First Cut December 2-3 Board Meeting, Workplans First Cut

Budget Budget December 8- 2004/2005 Call for proposal**December 8- 2004/2005 Call for proposal** January 9, 2004 Last date for proposal submission January 9, 2004 Last date for proposal submission January 27-28 Finalize Year 4 Work PlansJanuary 27-28 Finalize Year 4 Work Plans February 28- Many final reports are dueFebruary 28- Many final reports are due March 12-13 PFEG SVM WorkshopMarch 12-13 PFEG SVM Workshop ETWG Semi Annual ( ) ETWG Semi Annual ( )

ETWG Technical ETWG Technical ScheduleSchedule

Summer field work coming to an end, Summer field work coming to an end, some field work scheduled for wintersome field work scheduled for winter

Data analysis and model development Data analysis and model development is progressingis progressing

ETWG planning meeting in CornwallETWG planning meeting in Cornwall IERM developed by January, 2004IERM developed by January, 2004 Populate model by March 2004Populate model by March 2004 Quality Review by Feb, 2004Quality Review by Feb, 2004 PFEG Workshop with SVM continuesPFEG Workshop with SVM continues

Performance IndicatorsPerformance Indicators General performance indicators have not General performance indicators have not

changedchanged Specific performance indicators will come Specific performance indicators will come

out of this year’s analysis of informationout of this year’s analysis of information IERM model is advancingIERM model is advancing Will evaluate water management plans and Will evaluate water management plans and

define significant environmental effects of a define significant environmental effects of a proposed planproposed plan

Quantitative and qualitative evaluations- Quantitative and qualitative evaluations- apply professional judgment, precautionary apply professional judgment, precautionary principleprinciple

Computational Flow in IERM

System GeometryDEMLand cover

MeteorologySolar RadiationPrecipitation Air TempWind

Initial ConditionsPopulationBiomassBottom substrate

Management Actions

Fish stocking/ harvesting

Land useNutrient loads

Natural StressorsANS (e.g., zebra

mussels)Fish-eating

birds

Lake and upper RiverWater level time series

Flow at Moses-Saunders Dam

Tributary inflows to lower river

Velocity in upper river

Velocity & water levels in lower river

Temperature in upper river

Temperature in lake

Temperature in lower river

Wetland habitatPlant community

Lake and upper river

Wetland habitatPlant community

lower river

Impoundment habitatPlant community

Lower river

Fish habitat WUALake

Fish habitat WUALower river

Fish habitat WUAUpper river

Fish Bioenergetics

Lake

Fish BioenergeticsUpper river

Fish BioenergeticsLower river

Fish pop/commDynamics

Lower river

Fish pop/commdynamics

Lake

Fish pop/comm dynamics

Upper river

Wetland bird HSI

Wetland bird metrics

Muskrat abundance

Lake and upper river

Dabbling ducks - LR

Wetland birds - LR Muskrat abundance

Lake and upper river

Study Update 1Study Update 1ContactsContacts

HabitatHabitat Wilcox, Hudon, Patterson, Ingram, Morin.Wilcox, Hudon, Patterson, Ingram, Morin.

Rare SpeciesRare Species Schiavone, Klein, GiguereSchiavone, Klein, Giguere

BirdsBirds Ingram, Lehoux, Des GrangesIngram, Lehoux, Des Granges

FishFish Minns, Doka, Casselman, Farrell,Minns, Doka, Casselman, Farrell, De Lafontaine, Armellin, MinglebierDe Lafontaine, Armellin, Minglebier

HerpetilesHerpetiles Gibbs, ArmellinGibbs, Armellin

Study Update 2Study Update 2ContactsContacts

MuskratsMuskrats Toner, FarrellToner, Farrell

International Reserve LandsInternational Reserve Lands BarkleyBarkley

IERM IERM DePinto, Redder, MorinDePinto, Redder, Morin

SVMSVM PFEG Werick, Leger,PFEG Werick, Leger, ETWG DePinto, MorinETWG DePinto, Morin

ETWG LeadsETWG LeadsParker , Atkinson , ReadParker , Atkinson , Read

Wetlands 1Wetlands 1••Wetlands Lake OntarioWetlands Lake Ontario

  Summer field work has been completedSummer field work has been completedAdvanced in defining existing conditions and Advanced in defining existing conditions and modeling what is likely to occur in terms of wetlands modeling what is likely to occur in terms of wetlands over a variety of time spans and water levels.over a variety of time spans and water levels.Modeling is continuing, based on 4 different Modeling is continuing, based on 4 different geomorphic types and dependent and independent geomorphic types and dependent and independent variables have been defined variables have been defined

  

Wetlands 2Wetlands 2 Need to integrate wetland data with mapping. Need to integrate wetland data with mapping.

Should be soon, but each geomorphic type will Should be soon, but each geomorphic type will be handled separatelybe handled separately

Data will be provided for Lake Ontario/Upper Data will be provided for Lake Ontario/Upper St. Lawrence as:St. Lawrence as:

– – time-weighted percent of wetland in time-weighted percent of wetland in each of 5-each of 5- 7 plant community types.7 plant community types.

––percent of wetland in plant community percent of wetland in plant community type type averaged across 100-yraveraged across 100-yr

Still need to define common terminology for Still need to define common terminology for wetland types, but discussions are ongoingwetland types, but discussions are ongoing

Wetlands 3 – Lower Wetlands 3 – Lower RiverRiver

Summer field work has been completedSummer field work has been completed Performance indictors have not changedPerformance indictors have not changed May have some new ones that can be addedMay have some new ones that can be added Focus on Lake St. PierreFocus on Lake St. Pierre Products: Plant productivity at various water Products: Plant productivity at various water

levels and types of plant habitat at various levels and types of plant habitat at various water levels water levels

Critical time periods will be identifiedCritical time periods will be identified Still need to define common terminologyStill need to define common terminology

Performance IndicatorsPerformance IndicatorsLinking Water Levels-flow to Habitat QualityLinking Water Levels-flow to Habitat Quality

Biologicalattribute

Time scale Geographicscale

Type ofrelationship

Status

Watertemperature Monthly Montreal area

Linearregressions (-)

Yr 2 ETWGreport

Watertransparency

Daily Montreal-Quebec

Linearregressions (-)

Yr 3 ETWGreport

(November 2003)

% coveremergentvegetation

Annual Lake St. Pierre Linearregression (-)

Published

Invasion rate ofCommon Reed

Annual Montreal area Linearregression (-)

EC TechnicalReport (in prep.)

Habitatdiversity

Annual(from current andprevious growth

seasons)

Cornwall - LakeSt. Pierre

Binary CARTmodel

Yr 2 and Yr 3(March 2004)ETWG reports

HABITATCATEGORIES

WETMEADOW

TRANSITORYANNUALPLANTS

SHALLOWMARSH

DEEPMARSH

BEACHMUDFLATS

GRAVELDEWATERED

FLOATINGLEAVES

SUBMERGEDPLANTS

Modeling Habitat Diversity in Lake St. Pierre Modeling Habitat Diversity in Lake St. Pierre in relation with levels-flowin relation with levels-flow

Meteorological Service of Canada•Hydrodynamic Model•DEM topometry (pixel elevation)•8 discharge scenarios

Daily water level at each pixel

Habitat diversity model (linkage between habitat categories and hydrological conditions in the current and past growth season)

Regulation Plans(Daily Q at Cornwall 1960-2002) •1958D-with deviations (actual)•1958-D without deviation•1998•Pre-regulation Daily discharge at Sorel

Prediction of habitat category at each pixel

For each habitat type•Biomass data •Productivity models

GIS •Interpolation

•Mapping

Validation of predictions •IKONOS imagery (2002)•Aerial photographs

For each year (1960-2002)•Surface area •Productivity •Habitat diversity index

Rare SpeciesRare Species A collection of species have been identified as A collection of species have been identified as

being of special statusbeing of special status Group is refining the locations, and the habitat Group is refining the locations, and the habitat

requirementsrequirementsFor plants, birds and fish…For plants, birds and fish…

Looking at impacts from various water level Looking at impacts from various water level regimes on habitat and populations regimes on habitat and populations

Gaining assistance from the modeling specialists Gaining assistance from the modeling specialists to utilize habitat data and move into IERM and to utilize habitat data and move into IERM and SVMSVM

Maps, habitat and site specific impacts are Maps, habitat and site specific impacts are being amassed for entire study area.being amassed for entire study area.

BirdsBirds

Field data collection has endedField data collection has ended Conducting statistical analysis and selecting Conducting statistical analysis and selecting

variables for input to IERMvariables for input to IERM Modeling is progressing, some species will be Modeling is progressing, some species will be

closely tied to habitat and water levels closely tied to habitat and water levels Loss of habitat is more important in river, Loss of habitat is more important in river,

while physical change (flooding and stranding) while physical change (flooding and stranding) in Lake Ontario is perhaps more importantin Lake Ontario is perhaps more important

Birds 2Birds 2

Two models under developmentTwo models under development

1) Adverse impacts from short term water 1) Adverse impacts from short term water level changeslevel changes

2) Habitat alteration over longer timeline2) Habitat alteration over longer timeline

Will be able to predict bird population trendsWill be able to predict bird population trends Habitat trends for groups of birdsHabitat trends for groups of birds

Birds 3Birds 3

Dabbling Ducks in the St. Lawrence RiverDabbling Ducks in the St. Lawrence River No comparable study in Lake Ontario,not an No comparable study in Lake Ontario,not an

issueissue Summer field season is completeSummer field season is complete 4 performance indicators are being refined all 4 performance indicators are being refined all

geared to refining population modelsgeared to refining population models Waterfowl nest losses and habitat losses, Waterfowl nest losses and habitat losses,

brood rearing habitat losses , migrationbrood rearing habitat losses , migration As impacted by water level changes (timing, As impacted by water level changes (timing,

starting water level, range)starting water level, range)

FishFish

Three elementsThree elements Habitat Suitability- Models have been Habitat Suitability- Models have been

developed for LSL and LO to date, USL to developed for LSL and LO to date, USL to followfollow

Fish guild and species habitat performance Fish guild and species habitat performance indicatorsindicators

Dynamic Population modelsDynamic Population models Pike ,Yellow Perch, Smallmouth/Largemouth BassPike ,Yellow Perch, Smallmouth/Largemouth Bass

Assisting SAR group with habitat supply Assisting SAR group with habitat supply analysis for fishanalysis for fish

2 daily output values per life-stage:

1. Area-weighted suitability

2. Suitability-weighted temperature

1. Species-Specific Habitat Requirements (4 life stages):

[Northern Pike, Largemouth Bass, Smallmouth Bass, Yellow Perch]

2. Fish Guild Habitat Requirements (3 life stages)

Suitability

(0-1)

Suitabilities

* Area & Temperature

Daily outputto

Pop Model

Northern pike population Northern pike population modelmodel

Egg(egg-hatch)

Fry (free-swimming – 50mm)

YOY (50mm-end of season)

Hatch(yolk sac)

Juveniles and adults (age 1+)

Daily growth and survival as a function of temperature

Daily growth and survival as a function of temperature and density

Annual growth as a function of temperature and density, survival set an at annual rate

Fry WSAsHabitat: emergents and fringe

submergents, 0-1m

Spawn weighted suitable area (WSA)

Habitat: emergents, 0-0.5m

YOY WSAsHabitat: submergents, 0.5-2m

Juvenile and adults WSAsHabitat: submergents, fringe

non-vegetated areas, 0.5-5m

Looped through dynamic water level time series

Hatch densityFry density

Juvenile and adult densityP:B

Mean length at age

Daily inputfrom GIS Model

HerpetilesHerpetiles Herpetile studies tied to outcome of wetland Herpetile studies tied to outcome of wetland

studiesstudies Flexible approach to collecting information to Flexible approach to collecting information to

allow integration to wetland dataallow integration to wetland data Collecting tadpoles and turtle data at Collecting tadpoles and turtle data at

hundreds of sites and characterizing in terms hundreds of sites and characterizing in terms of water depth and habitatof water depth and habitat

Develop abundance index for a few key Develop abundance index for a few key species and link to each wetland type.species and link to each wetland type.

Need to work with modelers to convey Need to work with modelers to convey information to IERMinformation to IERM

Muskrats 1Muskrats 1   

Performance indicator is effect of water levels on muskrat Performance indicator is effect of water levels on muskrat populations in Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence Riverpopulations in Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River

Muskrat populations are regulated by water levels, the Muskrat populations are regulated by water levels, the type of available vegetation, and density-dependent type of available vegetation, and density-dependent factors. factors.

Muskrats are extremely sensitive to hydrologic Muskrats are extremely sensitive to hydrologic management due to associated changes in the management due to associated changes in the availability of food and cover. Muskrat populations availability of food and cover. Muskrat populations quickly respond to changes in water levels, usually within quickly respond to changes in water levels, usually within two years, making them an important indicator species. two years, making them an important indicator species.

It is possible that relatively minor changes to the current It is possible that relatively minor changes to the current water level management plan could dramatically water level management plan could dramatically influence muskrat populations. influence muskrat populations. 

Muskrats 2Muskrats 2 Winter muskrat house counts will be used to estimate muskrat Winter muskrat house counts will be used to estimate muskrat

populations throughout the study area. House counts offer a populations throughout the study area. House counts offer a reliable, efficient technique that allows both spatial and reliable, efficient technique that allows both spatial and temporal comparisons to be made.temporal comparisons to be made.

Models will integrate existing field data, as well as proposed Models will integrate existing field data, as well as proposed field data from the study area.field data from the study area.

Model output will consist of areas, defined by elevations and Model output will consist of areas, defined by elevations and consequent water depth, depicting suitability for muskrat consequent water depth, depicting suitability for muskrat establishment and estimated densities. Additionally, Lake establishment and estimated densities. Additionally, Lake Ontario sites being evaluated by other working groups, as well Ontario sites being evaluated by other working groups, as well as wetlands located within Native American territories, will as wetlands located within Native American territories, will also be evaluated. also be evaluated.

This approach will result in spatially explicit models of habitat This approach will result in spatially explicit models of habitat suitability that are driven by proposed water level scenarios. suitability that are driven by proposed water level scenarios. 

International Reserve International Reserve LandsLands

St. Regis Tribe is coordinatingSt. Regis Tribe is coordinating Review of ecological state of Review of ecological state of

wetlands on reserve landswetlands on reserve lands wetlands and fisheries focuswetlands and fisheries focus Need to improve contacts with Need to improve contacts with

other specialists and modelersother specialists and modelers

Integration SubgroupIntegration Subgroup

Formed after last February meetingFormed after last February meeting To tackle process and technical problemsTo tackle process and technical problems Ex. Economic valuation,goals and principles, Ex. Economic valuation,goals and principles,

consitency in habitat nomenclature, process consitency in habitat nomenclature, process steps for moving research into SVM, legislative steps for moving research into SVM, legislative review, schedule, IERM development, decision review, schedule, IERM development, decision making process for water management plansmaking process for water management plans

Approach is to bring issue to subgroup where Approach is to bring issue to subgroup where issue will be addressed and distributed to issue will be addressed and distributed to ETWG ETWG

Integrated Ecosystem Integrated Ecosystem Response ModelResponse Model

Afternoon presentationAfternoon presentation Being developed by DePinto, Being developed by DePinto,

Redder and MorinRedder and Morin Goal is to develop links between Goal is to develop links between

research and SVMresearch and SVM Provide modeling assistance to Provide modeling assistance to

researchersresearchers Very tight scheduleVery tight schedule

Shared Vision ModelShared Vision Model

Study Board has accepted the “Shared Study Board has accepted the “Shared Vison Model” as a method of defining Vison Model” as a method of defining the best water management plan that the best water management plan that meets the needs of all interestsmeets the needs of all interests

PFEG is tasked with development of PFEG is tasked with development of model, but ETWG will develop the model, but ETWG will develop the environmental wing of the SVMenvironmental wing of the SVM

SVM presentation, answer questions SVM presentation, answer questions posed by ETWG on the general modelposed by ETWG on the general model