Enrollment ProjectingThe Magic of Modeling and Deposits

Rachel MorrisData & Reporting Coordinator

Missouri University of Science and Technologyrachelm@mst.edu

Overview

•Who are we •Institutional Goals•KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators)•Benchmarks•Enrollment Projections•Assessment

1. Establish timeline with upper-level managers; on-going communication

2. Determine critical benchmarks & track progress towards goals at specific points in time

3. Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy

4. Build trend lines for key performance indicators

5. Refine models overtime

Guidelines for forecasting enrollment

Know Your Profile

1. We’re one of America’s top

technological research universities.

2.Our students get great jobs

at great salaries.

3.Our students graduate with the

ability to address real-world problems.

4.We’re one of America’s

“30 safest campuses.”

5.S&T is one of the top 10

“best value” national public universities.

A Top Technological Research University

A university with… At least 25% of students studying engineering

A majority of students studying mathematics, engineering, science, business and computing

A robust graduate program

Strong research culture

Exceptional liberal arts, humanities and social science degree programs that complement the technological strengths of the university

What is a “Technological Research University?”

Missouri S&T

Michigan Tech

Colorado Mines

SD Mines

New Mexico Mining & Tech

IllinoisTech

CalTech

FloridaTech

GeorgiaTech

Clarkson

New JerseyTech

StevensTech

MIT

WPI

Rensselaer

America’s TechnologicalResearch Universities

U of A - Huntsville

Degree Programs

+60 Degree

Programs

34 BS/BA

MBA/MST

29 MS/ME

20 PhD

Learn Moredegrees.mst.edu

*Masters degree only

Missouri S&T: 90% engineering, science and computing majors

19th in Nation for Largest Undergraduate Engineering Enrollment 17th in Nation for Number of Engineering Degrees Granted to African-Americans

19th in Nation for Number of BS Engineering Degrees Granted

TOTAL Enrollment 7,206 Undergraduate students 5,504

Graduate students 1,702

New freshman class 1,170

New transfer class 388

Miners’ Fall 2010 StatsBreaking National Trends

Fall 201043

84

3

2

43

2941

195

56

128

3629

4,901

54

8125

7

4

20

20

45928

20

34

20

18

16 25

7

24

12

123

22

22

32

6

174

4

12

Total Enrollment

48 states & 51 nations

70% Missouri residents

10% minority students

9% international students

DC 1

4

Students’ Home States

1

2

Unofficial data until after 4th week census

Enrollment diversity

International Student Enrollment

Average Age: 21.6 years old Gender:

23% Female 77% Male

First Generation College Students: 2005-06: 37%

Residency: Missouri Residents: 76% Out-State Students: 22% International: 2%

Ethnicity: African-American: 4% Asian-American: 3% Caucasian: 83% Hispanic: 2% Native-American: 1% Non-resident, International: 2% Not Disclosed: 5%

From a Community <40,000: 45% approx. Average Family Income: $82,000 Average Indebtedness at Graduation:

$23,500 USD approx. High Financial Need (Pell qualifier): 24% Freshmen with Credit Cards:

24% 6 arrive with over $1000 USD standing

balance Students with PCs:

94% +70% laptops 7% Macs

Students with Cell Phones 97%

Undergraduate demographics and psychographics

35% increase in test senders with family incomes of $60,000+

SOURCE: ACT AIM, 2008

Demographics Can Impact Historical Models

1050 to 1150 students with the following profile:

Academic Preparedness: 27 average ACT score (upper 10% in nation)90% having completed the full Missouri college-prep

curriculum 50% from the upper 20% of high school class

Geography: 70% in-state 25% out-of-state 5% internationalGender: 30% female 70% male Ethnicity: 13% under-represented minority studentsMajors: 70% Engineering (all programs)

5% Liberal Arts (psychology, history, English, technical communication, philosophy)

8% Business, Information Technology and Economics9% Natural Sciences and Mathematics (biology, chemistry, physics)

8% Computer ScienceSuccess Rate: 90% first to second year retention rate

80% return for third year65-70% graduate in six years

An ideal Missouri S&T freshman class

The Midwest and Northeast will experience a 4% to 10% decline in high school graduates between 2009 – 2014 (WICHE)

The profile of college-bound students is rapidly becoming more ethnically diverse and female dominant (NCES, WICHE, ACT, College Board)

The number of students interested in engineering, computer science, and natural science degrees has declined to record lows (ACT, CIRP)

More full-time college freshmen are choosing to start at two-year colleges (IPED, MODHE)

More students are enrolling in more than one college at a time (National Student Clearinghouse)

Future student market growth will include more students requiring financial aid and loans to complete a degree (WICHE)

Challenge: changes in the college-bound student markets

The Trends are Diverse: Regions within Regions

College-going rates, 2006

Som

e T

ren

ds t

hat

have n

ot

Ch

an

ged

:

Th

e G

old

en

Cir

cle

for

Recru

itm

en

t+

70%

en

roll w

ith

in 1

40 m

iles o

f h

om

e

+80%

en

roll in

hom

e s

tate

+1-15

+4

-5 +21

-14+13

+53+27

-9

+27

-23

+1

+1

+16

-8

-8

-2

-3

+22

+14

-4-2

-6

-6

-3

+2

-7

+10

-6

-6

-1+2

00

-12

-12

-6+1 +9

-3

-31

-6 -6 -8-14

-19

-17

-14

Source: Chronicle of Higher Education Almanac 2006-07

Projected change in high school graduates 2007-2017

> 20%+11% to +20%

0% to +10%

Decreases

+1

+10

WICHE, 2008

National vs. regional trends

% change in Missouri population by county 2000-2008

Source: USDA, Bureau of the CensusPublished by: University of Missouri Extension, April 2 2009

-14.4% - -0.1%

0% - 4.9%

5% - 9.9%

10% - 19.9%

20% - 39%

Missouri Average = 5.6%

By 2012, Missouri will have 4,000 fewer HS graduates each year

Establish timeline with upper-level managers; on-going communication

Determine critical benchmarks & track progress towards goals at specific points in time

Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy Build trend lines for key performance indicators Refine models overtime

Guidelines for forecasting enrollment

Basic Enrollment Funnel

Goal setting tool based on previous performance and benchmarks

Tool for building enrollment budgets Primary dashboard indicators for In-cycle assessments

of recruitment progress and projecting enrollments Tool to measure effectiveness of activities along the

matriculation path Ability to determine market share Tool to better focusing communications and messaging

How We Use the Funnel

How S&T Tracks Progress

Percent of ACT Tested College Freshmen Who Selected an Engineering Major

Missouri’s 2010 Student Funnel for All Engineering Fields

High School Seniors: 74,681 High School Graduates: 64,009 ACT Testers/College Bound: 48,290 Any Engineering Interest (all testers): 1,836 Any Engineering Interest, (+21 testers): 1,299

(21 = MO average score / 50%) Engineering Interest, +24 comp. score: 969

(24 = UM minimum for auto admission) Missouri S&T Freshmen Engineering

Enrollees: 721

SOURCES: MODESE 2011, ACT EIS 2010, PeopleSoft

Domestic Overall Freshmen Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Inquiries 8361 8456 9629 11427 11514 11510

Applicants 1898 1984 2305 2260 2515 2693

Admits 1809 1870 2154 2088 2343 2479

Enrollees 865 950 1040 1031 1105 1155

% Admits Enrolled 48% 51% 48% 49% 47% 47%

% Inquiries Enrolled 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10%

Domestic Freshmen from Missouri Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

Inquiries 4764 5061 6247 6325 5658 6053

Applicants 1339 1397 1641 1583 17911912

Admits 1020 1310 1511 14611665 1762

Enrollees 703 767 822 835 899 931

% Admits Enrolled 69% 58.5% 54% 57% 54% 53%

% Inquiries Enrolled 15% 15% 13% 13% 16% 15%

Domestic Freshmen Online Application Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

Applicants N/A 995 1276 1404 18232170

Admits N/A 950 1213 13041700 2017

Enrollees N/A 423 550 591 771918

% Admits Enrolled N/A 44.5% 45% 45% 45% 45%

Domestic Freshmen Paper Application Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

Applicants N/A 988 1029 859 692 523

Admits N/A 919 941 787 643 462

Enrollees N/A 527 490 440 335 237

% Admits Enrolled N/A 57% 52% 56% 52% 51%

FS2010 First Time College Freshmen Funnel

FS2010 First Time College Freshmen Funnel

FS2010 First Time College Missouri Freshmen

FS2010 First Time College St. Louis Area Freshmen

FS2010 First Time College Kansas City Area Freshmen

FS2010 First Time College Chicago Area Freshmen

FS2010 First Time College Dallas Area Freshmen

13% (+375) increase in FAFSA submissions over AY0925% (+641) increase in FAFAS submissions over AY07

Getting Started

Where to Begin?

1.Determine critical information needed and begin data collection

Understand your student population and know your data

2. Verify data qualityaccurate, complete, shared definition & metrics

3. Identify key benchmarkspoints in time when data must be gathered and

compared to build historical trends

4. Holistic approach to data management

requires buy-in from “data managers” (create / manage data)

5. Build baseline yearassess effectiveness and refine over time

Factor analysis is a statistical method used to describe variability among observed variables in terms of a potentially lower number of unobserved variables called factors.

Factor analysis searches for joint variations in responses to unobserved latent variables.

The information gained about the interdependencies between observed variables can be used later to reduce the set of variables in a dataset.

Factor Analysis Defined

1. Gender2. Geographic Origin3. Degree Program4. Application Type5. Academic Profile/Scholarship

ACT Composite Score HS GPA HS Class Rank

6. Overall/Combination Fall 2010 99.1% accurate

Adjusted Projection: 1,161 Opening Week: 1,1714th Week Census: 1,070

6 month projection for freshmen fall enrollment (1 of 7 best factors)

Originated in psychometrics, and is used in behavioral sciences, social sciences, marketing, product management, operations research, and other applied sciences that deal with large quantities of data.

Factor Analysis is Key

Enrollment Yields and Predictions by Gender and State ResidencyFor First Time College (FTC)

FS2007 Admits as of Enrolled %EnrolledFS05/FS06/

FS07 Admits as of Enrolled Ave %Enrolled FS2008 Admits as of FS08 Projected Yield

2/22/20072/21/2005 & 06

&07FS05 & FS06 &

FS07 2/21/2008 (Admits X %Yield)FTC 1965 1028 52.30% FTC 1760.7 947.3 53.80% FTC 1959 1053

                     M 1527 820 53.70% M 1386.3 749.7 54.10% M 1491 806F 436 208 47.70% F 373.3 197.7 53.00% F 465 245U 2     U 1 0   U 3 0    1028               1051

MO 1341 795 59.30% MO 1213 747.3 61.60% MO 1343 827IL 192 84 43.70% IL 184.6 75 40.60% IL 223 90

OOS 432 149 34.50% OOS 424 125 29.50% OOS 393 1161028 1033

Enrollment Yields and Predictions By Schools

FS2007 Admits as of Enrolled %YieldFS05/FS06/

FS07 Admits as of Enrolled Ave % Yield FS2008 Admits as of FS08 Projected Yield

2/21/20072/21/2005 & 06

&07FS05 & FS06 &

FS07 2/21/2008 (Admits X %Yield)CAS 328 158 48.20% CAS 296.7 146 49.2% CAS 315 155SOE 1574 834 53.00% SOE 1410 771 54.7% SOE 1593 871SMIS 50 28 56.00% SMIS 44.7 24.7 55.2% SMIS 39 21

SOMEER 13 8 61.50% SOMEER 9.3 5.7 61.2% SOMEER 12 71965 1028 1054

Enrollment Yields and Predictions by Scholarships

FS2007 Admits as of Enrolled %YieldFS05/FS06/

FS07 Admits as of Enrolled Ave % Yield FS2008 Admits as of FS08 Projected Yield

2/21/20072/21/2005 & 06

&07FS05 & FS06 &

FS07 2/21/2008 (Admits X %Yield)No GO

Scholarship 634 395 62.30%No GO

Scholarship 545.7 353.3 64.70%No GO

Scholarship 627 405100 N/A N/A N/A 100 N/A   **58% 100 17 10110 458 211 46.10% 110 388 180.3 46.50% 110 401 186111 16 14 87.50% 111 18.3 15.3 83.60% 111 0 0115 N/A N/A N/A 115 N/A   **58% 115 74 43120 54 23 42.60% 120 61 32 52.40% 120 51 27125 N/A N/A N/A 125 N/A   **58% 125 11 6130 13 8 61.50% 130 13.3 8.7 65.40% 130 6 4150 421 204 48.50% 150 392 196.3 50.00% 150 422 211160 369 173 46.90% 160 342 161.3 47.20% 160 350 165

1965 1028 Ave:56.4% Ave: 58% 1057

*Departmental Scholarships not included**Average % for 1st year scholar index

Ave of 4 Projections for FS2008Total: 1049

Are Linear Models Accurate?

YES – if there are limited alterations in the variable factors (see the profile and demographics noted before).

Current S&T model has predicted the final fall freshman class enrollment within 2% since 2005.

Best to re-assess the factor analysis every 5 years.

Enrollment ProjectingThe Magic of Modeling and Deposits

Rachel MorrisData & Reporting Coordinator

Missouri University of Science and Technologyrachelm@mst.edu