Enrollment Projectionsdept.clcillinois.edu/web/aqip/2003/pdf/support/enrollProject_06-08.pdfcredit hours in FY06 are in English (+203), Communication (+172), and Humanities (+163)

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College of Lake County 19351 West Washington Street Grayslake Illinois 60030-1198 Voice (847) 543-2096 Fax (847) 543-3096

Office of Institutional Effectiveness, Planning and Research

Enrollment Projections

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FY2006-2008

Credit Hours by Division and Department

October 2005

Nancy McNerney, Assistant Vice President Arlene Santos-George, Research Coordinator Rhonda Winn, Research Assistant Sam Del Pozo, Research Assistant Marilyn Vancrey-Schambari, Administrative Secretary

Summary Charts And Tables

2

Enrollment Projections FY 2006-2008

This report presents the enrollment projections for each division and their departments for the next three fiscal years—FY2006-2008. Projections are based on mid-term credit hours for the individual departments. Part 1 of the report presents the projections for FY06-08. Part 2 presents a variance analysis of the projected FY05 and actual FY05 enrollment for: 1) the original model projections; and 2) model projections with deans’ revisions. It analyzes the accuracy of the College’s projections of credit hours. Lastly, Part 3 of the report explains the data and methodology used for the projections, and the process of dean’s review.

Part I

Enrollment Projections College Projections The tables and charts on pages 5-19 show actual and projected credit hours from FY 1998-2008. Overall, the College is projecting annual percentage increases of 2.4% in FY06, 1.5% in FY07 and 1.4% in FY08 (Table 1, page 5). This would mean an increase of 5,397 credit hours from 225,763 in FY05 to 231,160 in FY06. More than half (+3,135) of this increase is forecast in the Adult Education area where growth in English as a Second Language is projected to be very strong (+16%). Credit hours are forecast at 234,594 and 237,771 in FY07 and FY08, respectively. The forecasts for the next three years reflect a recovery from the decline of 3.1% in FY05. Revisions by the deans resulted in slightly higher projections for the college-degree credit area and a steep increase in the Adult Education area. The rationale for the revisions are indicated in the tables for each division (pp. 6-12). Projections for the degree and non-degree areas are as follows:

In the degree-credit area, the College is projecting a 1.1% (+2,262) increase from 198,361 credit hours in FY05 to 200,623 credit hours in FY06 (Table 1, page 5). Credit hours are forecast at 203,619 (15% increase) in FY07 and 206,329 (1.3% increase) in FY08. For purposes of projecting tuition revenue, only the degree-credit hours should be used since nearly all of the hours in Adult and Community Education do not carry tuition or fee charges.

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In the non-degree credit area, revisions by the Dean of Adult and Community Education Division resulted in a very steep 11.4% growth in FY06 slowing down to 1.4% growth in FY07 and 1.5% growth in FY08. Credit hours are expected to increase sharply (+3,135) at 30,537 in FY06 due to increased funding for the English

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as a Second Language program. Growth would stabilize thereafter at 30,975 credit hours in FY07 and 31,443 credit hours in FY08 (Table 1, page 5).

Division and Department Projections The following summarizes the projected enrollments for FY06-08 for the divisions and their departments.

Among the degree-credit divisions, the Communication Arts, Humanities & Fine Arts Division is expected to have 60,676 credit hours in FY06—the highest numerical growth of 981 credit hours or 1.6% increase from the previous year (Table 1, page 5). Growth is expected to be stable at 1.5% and 1.7% in FY07 and FY08, respectively resulting in 61,580 credit hours in FY07 and 62,608 in FY08. The largest increases in credit hours in FY06 are in English (+203), Communication (+172), and Humanities (+163) as shown in Table 5, page 9.

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The next highest numerical increase is in the Social Sciences Division, where an increase of 672 credit hours or 1.5% is forecast for FY06 (Table 1, page 5). The Division is projected to have 45,983 credit hours in FY06, 46,693 credit hours (+711, +1.5%) in FY07, and 47,576 credit hours (+883, +1.9%) in FY08. The largest increase in credit hours is expected for Psychology (+228), History (+106), and Criminal Justice (+103) as shown in Table 7, page 11.

The Biological and Health Sciences Division is projected to have 31,769 credit hours in FY06. This is an increase of 452 credit hours or 1.4% over last year (Table 1, page 5). However, higher growth of 3.5% (+1,114 credit hours) is expected for FY07 due to a new incoming class in the Dental Hygiene program. Growth would stabilize at 1.7% (+573) in FY08. The highest numerical increases are forecast for Biology (+281), Emergency Medical Technician (+52) and Health Information Technology (+47) in FY06 (Table 3, page 7). Enrollment in Dental Hygiene is expected to double in FY07.

Based on model projections (i.e., no revisions were made by the dean), the Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences Division is projected to have an increase of 0.9% (+388) in credit hours in FY06. The Division is forecast to have 41,477 credit hours in FY06, 42,000 (+523, +1.3%) in FY07, and 42,419 (+419, +1%) in FY08. The largest increase in credit hours is projected for Mathematics (+223), Automotive Technology (+83), and Refrigeration and Air Conditioning (+44) in FY06 (Table 6, page 10).

Based on model projections, the Business Division is projected to have 19,827 credit hours in FY06 for a decline of 1.6%. Continued decline is forecast at 19,531 credit hours (-296, -1.5%) in FY07 and 19,308 credit hours (-223, -1.1%) in FY08. Except for Food Service Management which is projected to increase by 2.3% in FY06, all the departments are forecast to have declines in credit hours. The largest decline is

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projected for Computer Information Systems (-169, -2.9%) in FY06 (Table 4, page 8).

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Student Development is forecast to have 892 credit hours (+95, +11.9%) in FY06, 932 (+40, +4.5%) in FY07, and 962 (+30, +3.2%) in FY08 (Table 1, page 5). Personal Development is predicted to have an increase of 101 credit hours or 28.9% due to more offerings per revisions made by the Director of the Counseling Center. Meanwhile, Cooperative Education is expected to have a decline of 1.3% in FY06 (Table 8, page 12).

In the non-degree area, the Adult and Continuing Education Division is expected to have the highest enrollment in the division’s history in FY06 (Table 1, page 5). According to the dean’s revised projections, credit hours are expected to reach 30,537 in FY06 for an increase of 3,135 credit hours or 11.4%. This is higher than the peak achieved in FY02 when credit hours reached 29,451. The projected increase is attributed to an increase in funding for the English as a Second Language program, which experienced budget cuts in prior years. Thereafter, growth in credit hours is expected to slow down to 30,975 (+438, +1.4%) in FY07 and 31,443 (+467, +1.5%) in FY08. In FY06, credit hours in ESL is expected to reach 21,301 (+2,938, +16%) and Adult Basic Education is forecast at 4,090 (+157, +4%) (Table 2, page 6).

Table 9 on pages 14-15 presents the projections at the department level, sorted from highest to lowest projected percent change in FY06. The highest percent increases are in the following disciplines where projections were revised by the Deans: Personal Development (+28.9%), English as a Second Language (+16%), Social Work (+4%), and Adult Basic Education (+4%). Many of the departments had a 2.3% increase because of the model’s capped projections. 1 Meanwhile, the largest percent declines are in Physical Education (-5%) and a number of disciplines (e.g., Accounting, Computer Aided Design, Electrical Technology, and Human Services) where the decline was capped at -3.8%.

Table 10 on pages 17-19 presents the projections at the department level, sorted from highest to lowest projected numeric change in FY06. English as a Second Language is forecast to have the largest numeric increase in credit hours (+2,938), followed by Biology (+281), Psychology (+228), Mathematics (+223), and English (+203). The largest numeric decline are projected in Computer Information Systems (-169), Accounting (-120), Human Services (-49), Computer Aided Design (-45), Business (-42), and Physical Education (-40).

1 The maximum percent increase was capped at 2.3% for the model projections due to the past year’s decline in credit hours and consideration of available college-level enrollment data for Summer 2005 and Fall 2005. For a complete explanation of the methodology, refer to Part III of the report on page 25.

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Part I Tables and Charts

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Table 1College of Lake CountyMidterm Credit Hours

Actual and Projected FY98-08(Based on Moving Eight-Year Average of Annual Percent Change)

Actual 1/ Projected Number Change Projected Percent ChangeDivision FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY06 FY07 FY08BIO 2]/ 23,677 22,474 23,342 24,810 28,047 30,142 33,316 31,317 31,769 32,883 33,456 452 1,114 573 1.4% 3.5% 1.7%BUS 25,123 26,276 26,738 25,463 24,782 24,766 22,334 20,152 19,827 19,531 19,308 -325 -296 -223 -1.6% -1.5% -1.1%COM 2/ 48,402 48,993 50,663 50,140 54,838 59,716 61,941 59,695 60,676 61,580 62,608 981 904 1,028 1.6% 1.5% 1.7%EMPS 34,964 35,651 37,177 36,993 39,417 41,190 42,274 41,089 41,477 42,000 42,419 388 523 419 0.9% 1.3% 1.0%SD 2/ 1,074 861 970 825 776 1,021 1,036 797 892 932 962 95 40 30 11.9% 4.5% 3.2%SOC 2/ 37,022 35,547 35,637 36,040 38,936 42,696 44,960 45,311 45,983 46,693 47,576 672 711 883 1.5% 1.5% 1.9%Sub-total 170,262 169,802 174,527 174,271 186,796 199,531 205,861 198,361 200,623 203,619 206,329 2,262 2,996 2,710 1.1% 1.5% 1.3%Annual Change 2,605 -460 4,725 -256 12,525 12,735 6,330 -7,500 2,262 2,996 2,710Annual % Chge 1.6% -0.3% 2.8% -0.1% 7.2% 6.8% 3.2% -3.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3%

ACE 2/ 23,717 23,191 26,120 28,123 29,451 28,811 27,024 27,402 30,537 30,975 31,443 3,135 438 467 11.4% 1.4% 1.5%Annual Change 4,360 -526 2,929 2,003 1,328 -641 -1,786 378 3,135 438 467Annual % Chge 22.5% -2.2% 12.6% 7.7% 4.7% -2.2% -6.2% 1.4% 11.4% 1.4% 1.5%

Total College 193,979 192,993 200,647 202,394 216,247 228,341 232,885 225,763 231,160 234,594 237,771 5,397 3,434 3,177 2.4% 1.5% 1.4%Annual Change 6,965 -986 7,654 1,747 13,853 12,094 4,544 -7,122 5,397 3,434 3,177Annual % Chge 3.7% -0.5% 4.0% 0.9% 6.8% 5.6% 2.0% -3.1% 2.4% 1.5% 1.4%

Note:1/ Details may not add to totals due to rounding.2/ Projections for these divisions were revised by their respective deans.

Projected Credit Hours 1/

2/9/2006 5 Proj_FY06-08_FINAL.xls

Table 2Adult and Community Education

Midterm Credit HoursActual and Projected FY98-08

(Based on Moving Eight-Year Average of Annual Percent Change)

Department FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08

ABE 3,765 3,099 3,125 2,787 3,069 3,429 3,942 3,933 4,090 4,152 4,214 157 61 62 4.0% 1.5% 1.5%

ADE 576 524 624 894 1,016 815 911 1,088 1,088 1,104 1,121 - 16 17 0.0% 1.5% 1.5%

ESL 16,727 17,088 19,298 20,569 21,424 20,687 18,142 18,363 21,301 21,621 21,945 2,938 320 324 16.0% 1.5% 1.5%

GED 2,390 2,350 2,232 2,265 2,470 2,033 2,098 2,246 2,246 2,246 2,268 - - 22 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

VED (1.6) 2/ 259 130 841 1,608 1,472 1,847 1,932 1,772 1,812 1,853 1,894 40 41 42 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

TOTAL 23,717 23,191 26,120 28,123 29,451 28,811 27,024 27,402 30,537 30,975 31,443 3,135 438 467 11.4% 1.4% 1.5%

Annual Change 4,360 (526) 2,929 2,003 1,328 -641 -1,786 378 3,135 438 467

% Change YTY 22.5% -2.2% 12.6% 7.7% 4.7% -2.2% -6.2% 1.4% 11.4% 1.4% 1.5%

Notes:1/ Except for VED, all Adult Education departments projections were revised by the Dean due to expected increase in enrollment from additional courses funded by CLC and ICCB.2/ Vocational Education includes all vocational programs under the PCS Code 1.6 in the Continuing Education department. Prior to FY00, VED was reported for VST--Vocational Skills Training and General Studies.

Projected Percent ChangeProjected Number ChangeProjected Credit Hours 1/


Table 3Biology Division




FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08

BIO 9,595 9,087 9,586 9,643 10,793 11,366 12,971 12,503 12,784 13,072 13,366 281 288 294 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

CHM 3,764 3,200 2,912 3,085 3,396 4,047 4,477 4,469 4,512 4,610 4,714 43 98 104 1.0% 2.2% 2.3%

DHY 1/ N/A N/A N/A 593 1,244 1,262 1,184 574 574 1,148 1,148 0 574 0 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

EMT 705 715 1,229 1,825 1,782 1,340 2,114 2,331 2,383 2,437 2,492 52 54 55 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

HIT 831 1,056 1,246 1,216 1,423 1,794 1,994 2,099 2,146 2,195 2,244 47 48 49 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

HRT 1,269 1,263 1,185 1,197 1,311 1,355 1,564 1,293 1,286 1,285 1,286 -7 -1 1 -0.5% -0.1% 0.1%

MIM 1,027 881 784 798 1,367 1,442 1,789 1,474 1,507 1,541 1,576 33 34 35 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

MLT 2/ 739 782 724 555 454 390 446 450 459 461 464 9 2 2 2.0% 0.5% 0.5%

NUR 3/ 3,591 3,677 3,941 4,079 4,476 5,191 5,246 4,989 5,014 5,039 5,064 25 25 25 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

PED 4/ 2,156 1,813 1,735 1,819 1,683 1,739 1,236 807 767 751 751 -40 -15 0 -5.0% -2.0% 0.0%

SRG NA NA NA N/A 118 216 295 328 335 343 351 7 8 8 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

TOTAL 23,677 22,474 23,342 24,810 28,047 30,142 33,316 31,317 31,769 32,883 33,456 452 1,114 573 1.4% 3.5% 1.7%

Annual Change -330 -1,203 868 1,468 3,237 2,095 3,174 -1,999 452 1,114 573

% Change YTY -1.4% -5.1% 3.9% 6.3% 13.0% 7.5% 10.5% -6.0% 1.4% 3.5% 1.7%

Notes:1/ Projections were revised by the dean. In Fall 2004 a new DHY freshmen class was not accepted so 2005 enrollment consisted only of 2nd year students which accounted for the 50% drop from FY04 to FY05. FY06 will also be low because now there is only a 1st year class and not a 2nd year class. Starting in FY07, there will be 2 full classes of students, meaning a 100% increase between FY06-07. After FY07, enrollment should remain flat as the program runs to capacity.2/ Projections were revised by the dean. In FY02, the Associate degree program in MLT was made inactive, resulting in a decrease. However, enrollments in the Phlebotomy certificate have increased over the last semesters. Therefore, the projections should reflect a slight increase or flat enrollment as the program nears capacity.3/ Projections were revised by the dean. The Associate degree in Nursing recently implemented a more restrictive policy on repeating courses. Hence, dean is anticipating a slight decrease but would be offset by a slight increase in Nurse Assisting. Overall projections for NUR was revised to almost flat enrollment.4/ Projections were revised by the dean. Recent decreases in PED enrollment are the result of moving some credit courses to Continuing Education and the restrictionon the number of credit hours students can register for PED activities classes. Enrollment is expected to decrease in FY06 as more activity courses are being moved to Continuing Education. However, in subsequent years enrollment increases should be average.

Projected Percent ChangeProjected Credit Hours Projected Number Change


Table 4Business Division




FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08

ACC 4,220 3,763 3,438 3,387 3,916 4,224 3,827 3,204 3,084 2,968 2,875 -120 -116 -93 -3.8% -3.8% -3.1%

AOS 3,260 3,351 3,096 3,345 3,468 4,280 4,256 3,820 3,797 3,861 3,926 -23 65 64 -0.6% 1.7% 1.7%

BUS 6,315 5,940 5,817 5,766 6,243 6,555 6,228 6,078 6,036 5,968 5,943 -42 -68 -25 -0.7% -1.1% -0.4%

CIS 9,986 11,827 13,012 11,778 10,212 8,739 6,975 5,723 5,554 5,346 5,145 -169 -208 -200 -2.9% -3.8% -3.8%

FSM 874 804 800 893 943 968 1,048 1,327 1,357 1,387 1,419 30 31 31 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

Total 25,123 26,276 26,738 25,463 24,782 24,766 22,334 20,152 19,827 19,531 19,308 -325 -296 -223 -1.6% -1.5% -1.1%

Annual Change 1,566 1,153 462 -1,275 -681 -16 -2,432 -2,182 -325 -296 -223

% Change YTY 6.6% 4.6% 1.8% -4.8% -2.7% -0.1% -9.8% -9.8% -1.6% -1.5% -1.1%

Projected Percent ChangeProjected Number ChangeProjected Credit Hours


Table 5Communication Arts, Humanities Fine Arts Division



Department FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08ARA 1/ N/A N/A 40 104 72 64 56 120 121 122 124 1 1 1 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%ART 4,313 4,502 4,486 4,974 5,123 5,342 5,209 5,178 5,295 5,401 5,500 117 107 98 2.3% 2.0% 1.8%CHI 1/ 172 112 92 124 120 164 216 236 238 241 243 2 2 2 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%COM 1,584 1,713 2,015 1,895 1,371 1,421 1,407 1,144 1,166 1,127 1,084 22 -40 -42 1.9% -3.4% -3.8%CSS 234 273 258 291 372 285 297 99 96 92 89 -3 -4 -3 -3.2% -3.8% -3.8%DNC N/A 411 558 654 738 858 1,038 840 859 878 898 19 19 20 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%ELI 3/ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,602 1,634 1,667 1,700 32 33 33 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%ENG 19,319 19,468 19,863 19,146 21,188 22,580 23,380 21,312 21,515 21,699 21,907 203 184 208 1.0% 0.9% 1.0%FRN 1/ 423 483 401 292 523 615 548 603 609 615 621 6 6 6 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%GER 1/ 156 200 276 272 264 270 368 248 250 253 256 2 3 3 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%HUM 4/ 3,072 3,254 3,612 4,185 4,803 5,577 6,003 5,448 5,611 5,780 5,953 163 168 173 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%ITL 1/ 148 160 207 236 196 184 256 196 198 200 202 2 2 2 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%JPN 1/ 252 280 340 332 288 316 516 420 424 428 433 4 4 4 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%LAS 81 - - 42 - - - NA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ALMT (LTA) 126 205 230 162 243 311 244 248 254 259 265 6 6 6 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%MUS 2/ 2,090 2,121 2,261 1,962 2,227 2,282 2,339 2,131 2,195 2,261 2,329 64 66 68 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%PHI 6,057 5,868 6,114 5,988 6,456 7,038 7,173 6,975 7,097 7,200 7,351 122 102 151 1.8% 1.4% 2.1%RUS 1/ 72 N/A 48 36 108 112 188 256 259 261 264 3 3 3 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%SPA 3,919 3,511 3,427 3,246 3,334 4,208 4,089 4,336 4,364 4,415 4,515 28 52 99 0.6% 1.2% 2.3%CMM (SPE) 5,757 5,934 5,853 5,718 6,762 7,539 7,899 7,662 7,834 8,011 8,191 172 176 180 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%THE 627 498 582 481 650 550 715 641 655 669 684 14 14 15 2.3% 2.1% 2.3%

Total 48,402 48,993 50,663 50,140 54,838 59,716 61,941 59,695 60,676 61,580 62,608 981 904 1,028 1.6% 1.5% 1.7%

Annual Change 1,245 591 1,670 -523 4,698 4,878 2,225 (2,246) 981 904 1,028

% Change YTY 2.6% 1.2% 3.4% -1.0% 9.4% 8.9% 3.7% -3.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7%

Notes:1/ Projections for the language courses were revised by the dean for a 1% annual incrase. These courses are small offerings which often do not progress beyond the second level.2/ Projections were revised by the dean due to a new faculty working on the Music curriculum to raise the program's status.3/ Projections were revised because this is a new program and fall 2005 enrollment already posted a 9% increase.4/ Projections were revised by the dean due to increased interest and more sections being planned for future terms.

Projected Number Change Projected Percent ChangeProjected Credit Hours


Table 6Engineering, Mathematics Physical Sciences Division



Department FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 1/ FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08ABR 290 220 230 199 340 426 397 507 518 530 542 11 12 12 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%ARC 240 270 375 327 387 384 420 357 365 373 382 8 8 8 2.3% 2.2% 2.3%AST 232 220 244 176 204 224 204 260 264 270 276 4 6 6 1.6% 2.3% 2.3%AUT 2,152 1,937 1,814 1,911 2,449 2,822 3,277 3,681 3,764 3,849 3,935 83 85 87 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%BCT 459 477 576 474 507 492 525 507 507 513 517 0 6 4 0.0% 1.1% 0.9%CAD 1,635 1,620 1,593 1,392 1,539 1,204 1,101 1,198 1,153 1,110 1,068 -45 -43 -42 -3.8% -3.8% -3.8%CIV 123 75 165 196 129 102 138 135 138 141 144 3 3 3 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%CNA N/A N/A 354 2,037 2,307 1,329 882 873 893 913 933 20 20 21 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%CNC N/A N/A N/A 201 186 231 277 234 239 245 250 5 5 6 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%DFT 298 270 280 155 125 235 100 120 117 113 110 -3 -4 -3 -2.9% -3.4% -2.6%EGR 520 392 510 401 400 432 418 441 437 430 436 -4 -7 6 -1.0% -1.5% 1.5%EL N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEIT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 75 185 315 322 329 337 7 7 7 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%ELC 441 298 351 321 226 250 282 199 192 184 177 -7 -7 -7 -3.8% -3.8% -3.8%ELT 611 596 1,187 1,426 1,272 1,027 983 797 815 833 852 18 18 19 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%FLU N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A NA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AGEO 2,613 2,546 2,294 2,341 2,394 2,507 2,505 2,680 2,682 2,676 2,681 2 -6 5 0.1% -0.2% 0.2%IS 661 570 573 52 N/A 34 30 14 13 13 12 -1 -1 0 -3.8% -3.8% -3.8%IMR 216 237 210 147 207 198 231 255 261 267 273 6 6 6 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%MCD 295 305 201 239 191 173 165 147 141 136 131 -6 -5 -5 -3.8% -3.8% -3.8%MCS 289 290 278 280 214 237 213 331 338 346 354 7 8 8 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%MFG 0 0 27 12 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAMTH 19,916 21,354 21,918 21,233 22,530 24,382 24,976 23,335 23,558 23,930 24,162 223 372 232 1.0% 1.6% 1.0%MTT N/A N/A N/A 234 258 351 249 357 365 373 382 8 8 8 2.3% 2.2% 2.3%PHY 1,902 1,936 1,940 1,523 1,717 1,940 2,083 1,904 1,909 1,909 1,906 5 0 -2 0.2% 0.0% -0.1%RAC 1,341 1,411 1,446 1,319 1,477 1,780 2,066 1,970 2,014 2,060 2,106 44 45 46 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%WLD 595 489 497 349 307 313 387 425 423 408 402 -2 -15 -7 -0.4% -3.5% -1.6%WWW 135 138 114 48 51 42 180 47 48 49 50 1 1 1 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

Total 34,964 35,651 37,177 36,993 39,417 41,190 42,274 41,089 41,477 42,000 42,419 388 523 419 0.9% 1.3% 1.0%

Annual Change -235 687 1,526 -184 2,424 1,773 1,084 -1,185 388 523 419

% Change YTY -0.7% 2.0% 4.3% -0.5% 6.6% 4.5% 2.6% -2.8% 0.9% 1.3% 1.0%



Table 7Social Sciences Division



Department FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08

ANT 1,776 1,542 1,380 1,533 1,632 1,599 2,055 1,866 1,894 1,911 1,954 28 17 43 1.5% 0.9% 2.3%

CRJ 2,616 2,541 3,018 2,745 3,354 3,918 4,332 4,578 4,681 4,786 4,894 103 105 108 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

ECE N/A N/A N/A 640 944 1,295 1,470 1,578 1,614 1,650 1,687 36 36 37 2.3% 2.2% 2.3%

ECO 3,012 3,000 2,862 2,964 3,456 3,792 3,858 3,750 3,834 3,921 4,009 84 86 88 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

EDM N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 138 138 138 138 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EDU 1/ 474 402 516 902 1,223 1,385 1,573 1,800 1,841 1,896 1,953 41 55 57 2.3% 3.0% 3.0%

FST 1/ 687 471 366 357 468 408 411 486 469 473 476 -17 5 2 -3.5% 1.0% 0.5%

GEG 1,881 1,923 1,842 1,830 1,905 1,947 1,959 1,941 1,962 1,960 1,954 21 -2 -6 1.1% -0.1% -0.3%

HST 5,982 5,856 5,514 5,739 5,760 6,588 6,549 6,738 6,844 6,925 7,043 106 81 117 1.6% 1.2% 1.7%

HUS 2,387 2,556 2,676 1,459 1,157 1,196 1,168 1,309 1,260 1,213 1,167 -49 -47 -45 -3.8% -3.7% -3.8%

PSC 2,679 2,232 2,109 2,004 2,421 2,586 2,619 2,652 2,665 2,659 2,710 13 -6 51 0.5% -0.2% 1.9%

PSY 1/ 9,459 9,180 9,630 10,074 10,554 11,427 11,697 11,391 11,619 11,886 12,183 228 267 297 2.0% 2.3% 2.5%

SOC 1/ 6,069 5,844 5,724 5,751 5,952 6,477 6,789 6,690 6,757 6,858 6,982 67 101 123 1.0% 1.5% 1.8%

SSI N/A N/A N/A N/A 86 0 0 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

SST N/A N/A N/A 42 24 78 282 126 129 132 135 3 3 3 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

SWK 1/ N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 198 267 278 285 293 11 8 7 4.0% 2.8% 2.5%

TOTAL 37,022 35,547 35,637 36,040 38,936 42,696 44,960 45,311 45,983 46,693 47,576 672 711 883 1.5% 1.5% 1.9%

Annual Change 285 -1,475 90 403 2,896 3,760 2,264 351 672 711 883

% Change YTY 0.8% -4.0% 0.3% 1.1% 8.0% 9.7% 5.3% 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9%Note:1/ Projections for these departments were revised by the dean due to increased number of course offerings, especially online delivery.



Table 8Student DevelopmentMidterm Credit Hours

Actual and Projected FY98-08(Based on Moving Eight-Year Average of Annual Percent Change)


FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08Projected

FY06Projected

FY07Projected

FY08

PDS 1/ 496 444 526 432 425 508 547 349 450 500 525 101 50 25 28.9% 11.1% 5.0%

EWE 578 417 444 393 351 513 489 448 442 432 437 -6 -10 5 -1.3% -2.3% 1.2%

Total 1,074 861 970 825 776 1,021 1,036 797 892 932 962 95 40 30 11.9% 4.5% 3.2%

Annual Change 74 -213 109 -145 -49 245 15 -239 95 40 30

% Change YTY 7.4% -19.8% 12.7% -14.9% -5.9% 31.6% 1.5% -23.1% 11.9% 4.5% 3.2%Note:1/ Projections for Personal Development were revised by the Director of Counseling due to an anticipated increase in enrollment in the following: a) PDS 123 a new class; b) PDS 120 at Lakeshore, at weekends, and a new format.

Projected Percent ChangeProjected Credit Hours Projected Number Change


Figure 1Midterm Credit Hours

Actual and Projected FY93-08

Total College

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

FY93FY94FY95FY96FY97FY98FY99FY00FY01FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08

Projected

SOC

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

FY93

FY95

FY97

FY99

FY01

FY03

FY05

FY07

Projected

BIO

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

FY93

FY95

FY97

FY99

FY01

FY03

FY05

FY07

Projected

COM

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

FY93FY95FY97FY99FY01FY03FY05FY07

Projected

EMPS

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000


Projected

BUS

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Projected

ACE

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

FY95

FY96

FY97

FY98

FY99

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

Projected


Table 9. Actual and Projected Mid-term Credit Hours, With Deans' Revisions FY06-08, Sorted by Percent Change FY05-06

Division Department FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 1/ FY01 2/ FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08

Percent Change FY06

BUS RLE 1391 1102 910 672 590 468 591 575 294 N/A NA NA N/A NA NA NA NAEMPS MFG N/A N/A N/A N/A 27 N/A N/A 27 12 N/A 0 0 NA NA NA NA NASOC SSI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 86 0 0 1 NA NA NA NACOM LAS 0 39 30 219 33 81 0 0 42 0 0 0 NA N/A N/A N/A N/AEMPS EL 1,023 1,400 1,142 1,205 1,115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEMPS FLU 78 60 81 N/A 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A NA N/A N/A N/A N/ASD PDS 406 N/A 382 432 450 496 444 526 432 425 508 547 349 450 500 525 28.9%ACE ESL N/A N/A 10625 11351 13206 16727 17088 19298 20,569 21,424 20,687 18,142 18,363 21,301 21,621 21,945 16.0%SOC SWK N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 198 267 278 285 293 4.0%ACE ABE N/A N/A 2751 3348 3825 3765 3099 3125 2,787 3,069 3,429 3,942 3,933 4,090 4,152 4,214 4.0%COM HUM 2838 2955 3166 3213 3115 3072 3254 3612 4,185 4,803 5,577 6,003 5448 5,611 5,780 5,953 3.0%COM MUS 2257 1986 2045 2050 2139 2090 2121 2261 1,962 2,227 2,282 2,339 2131 2,195 2,261 2,329 3.0%EMPS ARC 459 417 243 345 273 240 270 375 327 387 384 420 357 365 373 382 2.3%EMPS MTT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 234 258 351 249 357 365 373 382 2.3%BIO BIO 10989 10912 10430 10332 10027 9595 9087 9586 9,643 10,793 11,366 12,971 12503 12,784 13,072 13,366 2.3%BIO EMT N/A N/A N/A N/A 130 705 715 1229 1,825 1,782 1,340 2,114 2331 2,383 2,437 2,492 2.3%BIO HIT 998 917 1144 1083 959 831 1056 1246 1,216 1,423 1,794 1,994 2099 2,146 2,195 2,244 2.3%BIO MIM 1152 1294 1272 977 710 1027 881 784 798 1,367 1,442 1,789 1474 1,507 1,541 1,576 2.3%BIO SRG N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 118 216 295 328 335 343 351 2.3%BUS FSM 861 884 608 693 758 874 804 800 893 943 968 1,048 1327 1,357 1,387 1,419 2.3%COM ART 3141 2975 3127 3434 4088 4313 4502 4486 4,974 5,123 5,342 5,209 5178 5,295 5,401 5,500 2.3%COM DNC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 411 558 654 738 858 1,038 840 859 878 898 2.3%COM LTA (LMT ) 255 261 290 363 261 126 205 230 162 243 311 244 248 254 259 265 2.3%COM CMM (SPE) 6408 6271 6219 6690 5952 5757 5934 5853 5,718 6,762 7,539 7,899 7662 7,834 8,011 8,191 2.3%COM THE N/A N/A N/A N/A 525 627 498 582 481 650 550 715 641 655 669 684 2.3%EMPS ABR 260 270 245 255 290 290 220 230 199 340 426 397 507 518 530 542 2.3%EMPS AUT 1830 1942 1435 1366 1592 2152 1937 1814 1,911 2,449 2,822 3,277 3,681 3,764 3,849 3,935 2.3%EMPS CIV 182 231 190 105 166 123 75 165 196 129 102 138 135 138 141 144 2.3%EMPS CNA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 354 2,037 2,307 1,329 882 873 893 913 933 2.3%EMPS CNC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 201 186 231 277 234 239 245 250 2.3%EMPS EIT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 75 185 315 322 329 337 2.3%EMPS ELT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 611 596 1187 1,426 1,272 1,027 983 797 815 833 852 2.3%EMPS IMR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 216 237 210 147 207 198 231 255 261 267 273 2.3%EMPS MCS N/A N/A N/A N/A 277 289 290 278 280 214 237 213 331 338 346 354 2.3%EMPS RAC 1581 1496 1230 1741 1509 1341 1411 1446 1,319 1,477 1,780 2,066 1,970 2,014 2,060 2,106 2.3%EMPS WWW 327 258 207 246 114 135 138 114 48 51 42 180 47 48 49 50 2.3%SOC CRJ 3339 3315 3054 2784 2799 2616 2541 3018 2,745 3,354 3,918 4,332 4578 4,681 4,786 4,894 2.3%

Actual Projected with Dean's Revisions




Percent Change FY06


SOC ECE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 640 944 1,295 1,470 1578 1,614 1,650 1,687 2.3%SOC ECO 3024 3012 2679 2841 2949 3012 3000 2862 2,964 3,456 3,792 3,858 3750 3,834 3,921 4,009 2.3%SOC EDU 384 372 369 363 414 474 402 516 902 1,223 1,385 1,573 1800 1,841 1,896 1,953 2.3%SOC SST N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42 24 78 282 126 129 132 135 2.3%ACE VED(1.6) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 841 1,608 1,472 1,847 1,932 1772 1,812 1,853 1,894 2.3%BIO MLT 605 968 946 801 759 739 782 724 555 454 390 446 450 459 461 464 2.0%COM ELI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1602 1,634 1,667 1,700 2.0%SOC PSY 10659 9891 9717 9795 9600 9459 9180 9630 10,074 10,554 11,427 11,697 11391 11,619 11,886 12,183 2.0%COM COM N/A N/A N/A N/A 1089 1584 1713 2015 1,895 1,371 1,421 1,407 1144 1,166 1,127 1,084 1.9%COM PHI 5199 5064 5331 5778 5766 6057 5868 6114 5,988 6,456 7,038 7,173 6975 7,097 7,200 7,351 1.8%EMPS AST N/A N/A N/A N/A 240 232 220 244 176 204 224 204 260 264 270 276 1.6%SOC HST 5136 4812 5031 5304 5673 5982 5856 5514 5,739 5,760 6,588 6,549 6738 6,844 6,925 7,043 1.6%SOC ANT 1374 1518 1497 1665 1665 1776 1542 1380 1,533 1,632 1,599 2,055 1866 1,894 1,911 1,954 1.5%SOC GEG 1908 1758 1638 1641 1692 1881 1923 1842 1,830 1,905 1,947 1,959 1941 1,962 1,960 1,954 1.1%COM ARA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 40 104 72 64 56 120 121 122 124 1.0%COM CHI 28 100 196 136 160 172 112 92 124 120 164 216 236 238 241 243 1.0%COM FRN 712 628 589 419 427 423 483 401 292 523 615 548 603 609 615 621 1.0%COM GER 483 372 360 256 224 156 200 276 272 264 270 368 248 250 253 256 1.0%COM ITL N/A N/A 224 184 108 148 160 207 236 196 184 256 196 198 200 202 1.0%COM JPN 204 264 268 228 184 252 280 340 332 288 316 516 420 424 428 433 1.0%COM RUS N/A N/A 56 52 N/A 72 N/A 48 36 108 112 188 256 259 261 264 1.0%SOC SOC 6495 6144 6150 6378 6234 6069 5844 5724 5,751 5,952 6,477 6,789 6690 6,757 6,858 6,982 1.0%BIO CHM 4569 4993 4904 4587 4086 3764 3200 2912 3,085 3,396 4,047 4,477 4469 4,512 4,610 4,714 1.0%EMPS MTH 19646 19956 20725 20962 20593 19916 21354 21918 21,233 22,530 24,382 24,976 23,335 23,558 23,930 24,162 1.0%COM ENG 17507 17460 18520 18710 18846 19319 19468 19863 19,146 21,188 22,580 23,380 21312 21,515 21,699 21,907 1.0%COM SPA 2557 2551 3104 3698 4036 3919 3511 3427 3,246 3,334 4,208 4,089 4336 4,364 4,415 4,515 0.6%BIO NUR 4696 4192 4564 3955 3780 3591 3677 3941 4,079 4,476 5,191 5,246 4989 5,014 5,039 5,064 0.5%SOC PSC 2874 2664 2721 2691 2508 2679 2232 2109 2,004 2,421 2,586 2,619 2652 2,665 2,659 2,710 0.5%EMPS PHY 1953 1904 1896 1916 1848 1902 1936 1940 1,523 1,717 1,940 2,083 1,904 1,909 1,909 1,906 0.2%EMPS GEO 2476 2623 2551 2518 2533 2613 2546 2294 2,341 2,394 2,507 2,505 2,680 2,682 2,676 2,681 0.1%BIO DHY N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 593 1,244 1,262 1,184 574 574 1,148 1,148 0.0%SOC EDM N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 138 138 138 138 0.0%ACE ADE N/A N/A 184 287 138 576 524 624 894 1,016 815 911 1,088 1,088 1,104 1,121 0.0%ACE GED N/A N/A 1755 2111 1792 2390 2350 2232 2,265 2,470 2,033 2,098 2,246 2,246 2,246 2,268 0.0%EMPS BCT 765 753 582 444 501 459 477 576 474 507 492 525 507 507 513 517 0.0%EMPS WLD 618 710 581 578 474 595 489 497 349 307 313 387 425 423 408 402 -0.4%BIO HRT 1464 1659 1359 1416 1317 1269 1263 1185 1,197 1,311 1,355 1,564 1293 1,286 1,285 1,286 -0.5%




Percent Change FY06


BUS AOS (BSS) 3859 3590 3481 3318 3995 3260 3351 3096 3,345 3,468 4,280 4,256 3820 3,797 3,861 3,926 -0.6%BUS BUS 7774 6936 6432 6507 6105 6315 5940 5817 5,766 6,243 6,555 6,228 6078 6,036 5,968 5,943 -0.7%EMPS EGR 661 579 607 540 500 520 392 510 401 400 432 418 441 437 430 436 -1.0%SD EWE 599 N/A 551 570 550 578 417 444 393 351 513 489 448 442 432 437 -1.3%EMPS DFT 424 340 354 319 292 298 270 280 155 125 235 100 120 117 113 110 -2.9%BUS CIS (DPR) 6911 6632 6093 6356 7724 9986 11827 13012 11,778 10,212 8,739 6,975 5723 5,554 5,346 5,145 -2.9%COM CSS 267 187 134 225 204 234 273 258 291 372 285 297 99 96 92 89 -3.2%SOC FST 339 282 276 501 711 687 471 366 357 468 408 411 486 469 473 476 -3.5%BUS ACC 5950 5214 4411 4356 4385 4220 3763 3438 3,387 3,916 4,224 3,827 3204 3,084 2,968 2,875 -3.8%EMPS CAD 1594 1773 1455 1689 1614 1635 1620 1593 1,392 1,539 1,204 1,101 1,198 1,153 1,110 1,068 -3.8%EMPS ELC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 441 298 351 321 226 250 282 199 192 184 177 -3.8%EMPS IS (ISE, ISM) 1010 964 832 832 885 661 570 573 52 N/A 34 30 14 13 13 12 -3.8%EMPS MCD 300 422 305 240 299 295 305 201 239 191 173 165 147 141 136 131 -3.8%SOC HUS (HUX, PR 2596 2617 2603 2580 2492 2387 2556 2676 1,459 1,157 1,196 1,168 1309 1,260 1,213 1,167 -3.8%BIO PED 2543 2533 2368 2402 2239 2156 1813 1735 1,819 1,683 1,739 1,236 807 767 751 751 -5.0%Total 169,938 165,422 179,225 183,053 186,618 193,720 192,863 200,647 202,394 216,247 228,341 232,885 225,763 231,160 234,594 237,771 2.4%

Source: EECA Enrollment Analysis Various years (from SIMS4170) and PeopleSoft.

NOTES:1/ Revised to include the vocational courses VED with PCS code 1.6. These include Vocational Allied Health, Vocational Cosmetoogy, Vocational Arts and Crafts, Vocational Animal Care and Training, Vocational Photography, Vocational Skills Training, and Vocational-Vocational Training.2/ Revised based on revised S3 FY01 datafile. Revisions were made to correct for out of state students.


Table 10. Actual and Projected Mid-term Credit Hours, With Deans' Revisions FY06-08, Sorted by Number Change FY05-06


Number Change FY06

BUS RLE 1391 1102 910 672 590 468 591 575 294 N/A NA NA N/A NA NA NA NAEMPS MFG N/A N/A N/A N/A 27 N/A N/A 27 12 N/A 0 0 NA NA NA NA NASOC SSI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 86 0 0 1 NA NA NA NACOM LAS 0 39 30 219 33 81 0 0 42 0 0 0 NA N/A N/A N/A N/AEMPS EL 1,023 1,400 1,142 1,205 1,115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AEMPS FLU 78 60 81 N/A 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A NA N/A N/A N/A N/AACE ESL N/A N/A 10625 11351 13206 16727 17088 19298 20,569 21,424 20,687 18,142 18,363 21,301 21,621 21,945 2,938BIO BIO 10989 10912 10430 10332 10027 9595 9087 9586 9,643 10,793 11,366 12,971 12503 12,784 13,072 13,366 281SOC PSY 10659 9891 9717 9795 9600 9459 9180 9630 10,074 10,554 11,427 11,697 11391 11,619 11,886 12,183 228EMPS MTH 19646 19956 20725 20962 20593 19916 21354 21918 21,233 22,530 24,382 24,976 23,335 23,558 23,930 24,162 223COM ENG 17507 17460 18520 18710 18846 19319 19468 19863 19,146 21,188 22,580 23,380 21312 21,515 21,699 21,907 203COM CMM (SPE) 6408 6271 6219 6690 5952 5757 5934 5853 5,718 6,762 7,539 7,899 7662 7,834 8,011 8,191 172COM HUM 2838 2955 3166 3213 3115 3072 3254 3612 4,185 4,803 5,577 6,003 5448 5,611 5,780 5,953 163ACE ABE N/A N/A 2751 3348 3825 3765 3099 3125 2,787 3,069 3,429 3,942 3,933 4,090 4,152 4,214 157COM PHI 5199 5064 5331 5778 5766 6057 5868 6114 5,988 6,456 7,038 7,173 6975 7,097 7,200 7,351 122COM ART 3141 2975 3127 3434 4088 4313 4502 4486 4,974 5,123 5,342 5,209 5178 5,295 5,401 5,500 117SOC HST 5136 4812 5031 5304 5673 5982 5856 5514 5,739 5,760 6,588 6,549 6738 6,844 6,925 7,043 106SOC CRJ 3339 3315 3054 2784 2799 2616 2541 3018 2,745 3,354 3,918 4,332 4578 4,681 4,786 4,894 103SD PDS 406 N/A 382 432 450 496 444 526 432 425 508 547 349 450 500 525 101SOC ECO 3024 3012 2679 2841 2949 3012 3000 2862 2,964 3,456 3,792 3,858 3750 3,834 3,921 4,009 84EMPS AUT 1830 1942 1435 1366 1592 2152 1937 1814 1,911 2,449 2,822 3,277 3,681 3,764 3,849 3,935 83SOC SOC 6495 6144 6150 6378 6234 6069 5844 5724 5,751 5,952 6,477 6,789 6690 6,757 6,858 6,982 67COM MUS 2257 1986 2045 2050 2139 2090 2121 2261 1,962 2,227 2,282 2,339 2131 2,195 2,261 2,329 64BIO EMT N/A N/A N/A N/A 130 705 715 1229 1,825 1,782 1,340 2,114 2331 2,383 2,437 2,492 52BIO HIT 998 917 1144 1083 959 831 1056 1246 1,216 1,423 1,794 1,994 2099 2,146 2,195 2,244 47EMPS RAC 1581 1496 1230 1741 1509 1341 1411 1446 1,319 1,477 1,780 2,066 1,970 2,014 2,060 2,106 44BIO CHM 4569 4993 4904 4587 4086 3764 3200 2912 3,085 3,396 4,047 4,477 4469 4,512 4,610 4,714 43SOC EDU 384 372 369 363 414 474 402 516 902 1,223 1,385 1,573 1800 1,841 1,896 1,953 41ACE VED(1.6) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 841 1,608 1,472 1,847 1,932 1772 1,812 1,853 1,894 40SOC ECE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 640 944 1,295 1,470 1578 1,614 1,650 1,687 36BIO MIM 1152 1294 1272 977 710 1027 881 784 798 1,367 1,442 1,789 1474 1,507 1,541 1,576 33COM ELI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1602 1,634 1,667 1,700 32BUS FSM 861 884 608 693 758 874 804 800 893 943 968 1,048 1327 1,357 1,387 1,419 30COM SPA 2557 2551 3104 3698 4036 3919 3511 3427 3,246 3,334 4,208 4,089 4336 4,364 4,415 4,515 28SOC ANT 1374 1518 1497 1665 1665 1776 1542 1380 1,533 1,632 1,599 2,055 1866 1,894 1,911 1,954 28BIO NUR 4696 4192 4564 3955 3780 3591 3677 3941 4,079 4,476 5,191 5,246 4989 5,014 5,039 5,064 25COM COM N/A N/A N/A N/A 1089 1584 1713 2015 1,895 1,371 1,421 1,407 1144 1,166 1,127 1,084 22





Number Change FY06


SOC GEG 1908 1758 1638 1641 1692 1881 1923 1842 1,830 1,905 1,947 1,959 1941 1,962 1,960 1,954 21EMPS CNA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 354 2,037 2,307 1,329 882 873 893 913 933 20COM DNC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 411 558 654 738 858 1,038 840 859 878 898 19EMPS ELT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 611 596 1187 1,426 1,272 1,027 983 797 815 833 852 18COM THE N/A N/A N/A N/A 525 627 498 582 481 650 550 715 641 655 669 684 14SOC PSC 2874 2664 2721 2691 2508 2679 2232 2109 2,004 2,421 2,586 2,619 2652 2,665 2,659 2,710 13EMPS ABR 260 270 245 255 290 290 220 230 199 340 426 397 507 518 530 542 11SOC SWK N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 198 267 278 285 293 11BIO MLT 605 968 946 801 759 739 782 724 555 454 390 446 450 459 461 464 9EMPS ARC 459 417 243 345 273 240 270 375 327 387 384 420 357 365 373 382 8EMPS MTT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 234 258 351 249 357 365 373 382 8EMPS MCS N/A N/A N/A N/A 277 289 290 278 280 214 237 213 331 338 346 354 7BIO SRG N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 118 216 295 328 335 343 351 7EMPS EIT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 75 185 315 322 329 337 7COM FRN 712 628 589 419 427 423 483 401 292 523 615 548 603 609 615 621 6EMPS IMR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 216 237 210 147 207 198 231 255 261 267 273 6COM LTA (LMT ) 255 261 290 363 261 126 205 230 162 243 311 244 248 254 259 265 6EMPS CNC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 201 186 231 277 234 239 245 250 5EMPS PHY 1953 1904 1896 1916 1848 1902 1936 1940 1,523 1,717 1,940 2,083 1,904 1,909 1,909 1,906 5COM JPN 204 264 268 228 184 252 280 340 332 288 316 516 420 424 428 433 4EMPS AST N/A N/A N/A N/A 240 232 220 244 176 204 224 204 260 264 270 276 4EMPS CIV 182 231 190 105 166 123 75 165 196 129 102 138 135 138 141 144 3SOC SST N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42 24 78 282 126 129 132 135 3COM RUS N/A N/A 56 52 N/A 72 N/A 48 36 108 112 188 256 259 261 264 3COM GER 483 372 360 256 224 156 200 276 272 264 270 368 248 250 253 256 2COM CHI 28 100 196 136 160 172 112 92 124 120 164 216 236 238 241 243 2EMPS GEO 2476 2623 2551 2518 2533 2613 2546 2294 2,341 2,394 2,507 2,505 2,680 2,682 2,676 2,681 2COM ITL N/A N/A 224 184 108 148 160 207 236 196 184 256 196 198 200 202 2COM ARA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 40 104 72 64 56 120 121 122 124 1EMPS WWW 327 258 207 246 114 135 138 114 48 51 42 180 47 48 49 50 1BIO DHY N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 593 1,244 1,262 1,184 574 574 1,148 1,148 0SOC EDM N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 138 138 138 138 0ACE ADE N/A N/A 184 287 138 576 524 624 894 1,016 815 911 1,088 1,088 1,104 1,121 0ACE GED N/A N/A 1755 2111 1792 2390 2350 2232 2,265 2,470 2,033 2,098 2,246 2,246 2,246 2,268 0EMPS BCT 765 753 582 444 501 459 477 576 474 507 492 525 507 507 513 517 0EMPS IS (ISE, ISM) 1010 964 832 832 885 661 570 573 52 N/A 34 30 14 13 13 12 -1EMPS WLD 618 710 581 578 474 595 489 497 349 307 313 387 425 423 408 402 -2




Number Change FY06


COM CSS 267 187 134 225 204 234 273 258 291 372 285 297 99 96 92 89 -3EMPS DFT 424 340 354 319 292 298 270 280 155 125 235 100 120 117 113 110 -3EMPS EGR 661 579 607 540 500 520 392 510 401 400 432 418 441 437 430 436 -4EMPS MCD 300 422 305 240 299 295 305 201 239 191 173 165 147 141 136 131 -6SD EWE 599 N/A 551 570 550 578 417 444 393 351 513 489 448 442 432 437 -6BIO HRT 1464 1659 1359 1416 1317 1269 1263 1185 1,197 1,311 1,355 1,564 1293 1,286 1,285 1,286 -7EMPS ELC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 441 298 351 321 226 250 282 199 192 184 177 -7SOC FST 339 282 276 501 711 687 471 366 357 468 408 411 486 469 473 476 -17BUS AOS (BSS) 3859 3590 3481 3318 3995 3260 3351 3096 3,345 3,468 4,280 4,256 3820 3,797 3,861 3,926 -23BIO PED 2543 2533 2368 2402 2239 2156 1813 1735 1,819 1,683 1,739 1,236 807 767 751 751 -40BUS BUS 7774 6936 6432 6507 6105 6315 5940 5817 5,766 6,243 6,555 6,228 6078 6,036 5,968 5,943 -42EMPS CAD 1594 1773 1455 1689 1614 1635 1620 1593 1,392 1,539 1,204 1,101 1,198 1,153 1,110 1,068 -45SOC HUS (HUX, PR 2596 2617 2603 2580 2492 2387 2556 2676 1,459 1,157 1,196 1,168 1309 1,260 1,213 1,167 -49BUS ACC 5950 5214 4411 4356 4385 4220 3763 3438 3,387 3,916 4,224 3,827 3204 3,084 2,968 2,875 -120BUS CIS (DPR) 6911 6632 6093 6356 7724 9986 11827 13012 11,778 10,212 8,739 6,975 5723 5,554 5,346 5,145 -169Total 169,938 165,422 179,225 183,053 186,618 193,720 192,863 200,647 202,394 216,247 228,341 232,885 225,763 231,160 234,594 237,771 5,397

Source: EECA Enrollment Analysis Various years (from SIMS4170) and PeopleSoft.

NOTES:1/ Revised to include the vocational courses VED with PCS code 1.6. These include Vocational Allied Health, Vocational Cosmetoogy, Vocational Arts and Crafts, Vocational Animal Care and Training, Vocational Photography, Vocational Skills Training, and Vocational-Vocational Training.2/ Revised based on revised S3 FY01 datafile. Revisions were made to correct for out of state students.


PART II

A Comparison of Projected and Actual FY05

Credit Hours

20

Part II A Comparison of Projected and Actual FY05 Credit Hours

For this part of the report, the projected credit hours and the actual credit hours for FY05 are compared for the results of: 1) the model projections; and 2) the revised deans’ projections. The charts and tables on pages 23-28 show the predicted and actual mid-term credit hours for each division and department. The model projections versus the actual credit hours are presented in Tables 11-12 and Figure 2 on pp. 23-25. The revised deans’ projections versus the actual credit hours are presented in Tables 13-14 and Figure 3 on pp. 26-28. The data used in projecting FY05 credit hours and actual FY05 credit hours data were obtained from the same source indicated in Part 1 of the report. Tables 11 and 13 and Figures 2 and 3 show the comparison of projected and actual enrollments for each division; and Tables 12 and 14 present the comparison at the department level. The difference between the projected FY05 and the actual FY05 mid-term credit hours is presented in the variance columns in each table. A positive variance indicates an over-estimation of credit hours, while a negative variance indicates an under-estimation. For new departments resulting from new initiatives or curriculum revisions, a comparison between predicted and actual data was not possible due to unavailable and/or not comparable data. The following summarizes the analysis. • As shown in Table 11, actual total College credit hours were over-projected by the

model projections by 4.7%. The actual midterm enrollment fell from FY04 by 7,123 credit hours or -3%. For the degree credit area, actual credit hours were less than model projections by 5.2%. The model forecast for the non-degree credit area over-projected actual credit hours by 1.2%.

• Table 11 shows that model forecasts for the divisions tend to have relatively larger

variances than the forecast for the College. The model projection for Social Sciences was close to the actual credit hours (over-projected by 0.5%). Model projections over-projected actual credit hours by 7.9% for Biology Division; 11.3% for Business Division; 5.9% for Communications; 4.0% for Engineering Division; and 31.2% for Student Development.

Table 12 provides a detailed comparison of the model projections to actual credit hours at the department level. It is important to note that projections at the department level tend to be less precise; hence, the variances range from –100% to +294.5%. However, some of the projections for the departments were within + or –3% of actual credit hours (e.g., Sociology, Political Science, History, Geography, Criminal Justice, Library Technical Assistant, Business Management, Health Information Technology, Chemistry, and English as a Second Language).

•

• The revised projections (with the deans’ revisions) show that, overall for the College,

credit hours were over-projected by 4.6% as shown in Table 13. For the degree credit

21

area, the revised projections were over-projected by 5.6% while the projections for the non-degree credit area were under-projected by 1.4%.

• Revisions to the model projections were made by the Adult Education Division,

Biology Division, and Engineering Division. • Table 14 shows the variances for projected credit hours and actual credit hours for the

revised projections at the department level.

22

Division Projected Actual Variance Description of VarianceBIO 33,801 31,317 7.9% actual less than projectedBUS 22,439 20,152 11.3% actual less than projectedCOM 63,193 59,695 5.9% actual less than projectedEMPS 42,723 41,089 4.0% actual less than projectedSD 1,046 797 31.2% actual less than projectedSOC 45,520 45,311 0.5% actual less than projectedSub-total 208,723 198,361 5.2% actual less than projected

ACE 27,721 27,402 1.2% actual less than projected

Total College 236,444 225,763 4.7% actual less than projected

Table 11Model Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY05

By Division

Figure 2Model Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY05

By Division

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

BIO BUS COM EMPS SD SOC ACE

Division

Projected Actual

23

Division Department

Projected Credit

Hours FY05

Actual Credit Hours

FY05 Variance Description of VarianceACE ABE 4,010 3,933 2.0% actual less than projectedACE ADE 938 1,088 -13.8% actual greater than projectedACE ESL 18,687 18,363 1.8% actual less than projectedACE GED 2,097 2,246 -6.6% actual greater than projectedACE VED (1.6) 1,989 1,772 12.3% actual less than projected

Total 27,721 27,402 1.2% actual less than projectedBIO BIO 13,245 12,503 5.9% actual less than projectedBIO CHM 4,449 4,469 -0.4% actual greater than projectedBIO DHY 1,220 574 112.5% actual less than projectedBIO EMT 2,177 2,331 -6.6% actual greater than projectedBIO HIT 2,054 2,099 -2.2% actual greater than projectedBIO HRT 1,572 1,293 21.6% actual less than projectedBIO MIM 1,843 1,474 25.0% actual less than projectedBIO MLT 413 450 -8.2% actual greater than projectedBIO NUR 5,393 4,989 8.1% actual less than projectedBIO PED 1,132 807 40.3% actual less than projectedBIO SRG 304 328 -7.4% actual greater than projected

Total 33,801 31,317 7.9% actual less than projectedBUS ACC 3,741 3,204 16.8% actual less than projectedBUS AOS (BSS) 4,382 3,820 14.7% actual less than projectedBUS BUS 6,140 6,078 1.0% actual less than projectedBUS CIS 7,096 5,723 24.0% actual less than projectedBUS FSM 1,079 1,327 -18.7% actual greater than projected

Total 22,439 20,152 11.3% actual less than projectedCOM ARA 58 120 -51.9% actual greater than projectedCOM ART 5,365 5,178 3.6% actual less than projectedCOM CHI 222 236 -5.7% actual greater than projectedCOM COM 1,449 1,144 26.7% actual less than projectedCOM CSS 306 99 209.0% actual less than projectedCOM DNC 1,069 840 27.3% actual less than projectedCOM ELI N/A 1,602 N/A Not applicable.COM ENG 23,824 21,312 11.8% actual less than projectedCOM FRN 564 603 -6.4% actual greater than projectedCOM GER 379 248 52.8% actual less than projectedCOM HUM 6,183 5,448 13.5% actual less than projectedCOM ITL 264 196 34.5% actual less than projectedCOM JPN 531 420 26.5% actual less than projectedCOM LAS 0 NA N/A Not applicable.COM LTA (LMT) 248 248 0.1% actual less than projectedCOM MUS 2,361 2,131 10.8% actual less than projectedCOM PHI 7,304 6,975 4.7% actual less than projectedCOM RUS 194 256 -24.4% actual greater than projectedCOM SPA 4,121 4,336 -5.0% actual greater than projectedCOM SPE (CMM) 8,014 7,662 4.6% actual less than projectedCOM THE 736 641 14.9% actual less than projected

Total 63,193 59,695 5.9% actual less than projected


By Department

24

Division Department

Projected Credit

Hours FY05

Actual Credit Hours

FY05 Variance Description of Variance


By Department

EMPS ABR 409 507 -19.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS ARC 433 357 21.2% actual less than projectedEMPS AST 201 260 -22.5% actual greater than projectedEMPS AUT 3,375 3,681 -8.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS BCT 534 507 5.4% actual less than projectedEMPS CAD 1,038 1,198 -13.4% actual greater than projectedEMPS CIV 142 135 5.3% actual less than projectedEMPS CNA 908 873 4.1% actual less than projectedEMPS CNC 285 234 21.9% actual less than projectedEMPS DFT 93 120 -22.2% actual greater than projectedEMPS EGR 406 441 -7.9% actual greater than projectedEMPS EIT 191 315 -39.5% actual greater than projectedEMPS ELC 268 199 34.8% actual less than projectedEMPS ELT 1,012 797 27.0% actual less than projectedEMPS FLU N/A N/A N/A Not applicable.EMPS GEO 2,481 2,680 -7.4% actual greater than projectedEMPS IS 27 14 92.9% actual less than projectedEMPS IMR 238 255 -6.7% actual greater than projectedEMPS MCD 159 147 7.9% actual less than projectedEMPS MCS 206 331 -37.6% actual greater than projectedEMPS MFG 0 NA 0.0% Not applicable.EMPS MTH 25,302 23,335 8.4% actual less than projectedEMPS MTT 256 357 -28.2% actual greater than projectedEMPS PHY 2,096 1904 10.1% actual less than projectedEMPS RAC 2,105 1970 6.8% actual less than projectedEMPS WLD 371 425 -12.7% actual greater than projectedEMPS WWW 185 47 294.5% actual less than projected

Total 42,723 41,089 4.0% actual less than projectedSD PDS 562 349 61.1% actual less than projectedSD EWE 484 448 8.0% actual less than projected

Total 1,046 797 31.2% actual less than projectedSOC ANT 2,104 1,866 12.7% actual less than projectedSOC CRJ 4,462 4,578 -2.5% actual greater than projectedSOC ECE 1,514 1,578 -4.0% actual greater than projectedSOC ECO 3,974 3,750 6.0% actual less than projectedSOC EMD N/A 138 N/A Not applicable.SOC EDU 1,620 1,800 -10.0% actual greater than projectedSOC FST 408 486 -16.1% actual greater than projectedSOC GEG 1,985 1,941 2.3% actual less than projectedSOC HST 6,669 6,738 -1.0% actual greater than projectedSOC HUS 1,067 649 64.4% actual less than projectedSOC HUX N/A 660 N/A Not applicable.SOC PSC 2,599 2,652 -2.0% actual greater than projectedSOC PSY 11,851 11,391 4.0% actual less than projectedSOC SOC 6,780 6,690 1.3% actual less than projectedSOC SSI 0 1 -100.0% actual greater than projectedSOC SST 290 126 130.5% actual less than projectedSOC SWK 198 267 -25.8% actual greater than projected


25

Table 13Revised Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY05

By DivisionDivision Projected Actual Variance Description of Variance

BIO 33,659 31,317 7.5% actual less than projectedBUS 22,439 20,152 11.3% actual less than projectedCOM 63,193 59,695 5.9% actual less than projectedEMPS 43,671 41,089 6.3% actual less than projectedSD 1,046 797 31.2% actual less than projectedSOC 45,520 45,311 0.5% actual less than projectedSub-total 209,528 198,361 5.6% actual less than projected

ACE 27,025 27,402 -1.4% actual greater than projected

Total College 236,553 225,763 4.8% actual less than projected

Figure 3Revised Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY05,

By Division

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

BIO BUS COM EMPS SD SOC ACE

DivisionProjected Actual

26

Division Department

Projected Credit

Hours FY05

Actual Credit Hours

FY05 Variance Description of VarianceACE ABE 3,942 3,933 0.2% actual less than projectedACE ADE 911 1,088 -16.3% actual greater than projectedACE ESL 18,142 18,363 -1.2% actual greater than projectedACE GED 2,098 2,246 -6.6% actual greater than projectedACE VED (1.6) 1,932 1,772 9.0% actual less than projected

Total 27,025 27,402 -1.4% actual greater than projectedBIO BIO 13,490 12,503 7.9% actual less than projectedBIO CHM 4,656 4,469 4.2% actual less than projectedBIO DHY 592 574 3.1% actual less than projectedBIO EMT 2,177 2,331 -6.6% actual greater than projectedBIO HIT 2,054 2,099 -2.2% actual greater than projectedBIO HRT 1,572 1,293 21.6% actual less than projectedBIO MIM 1,843 1,474 25.0% actual less than projectedBIO MLT 446 450 -0.9% actual greater than projectedBIO NUR 5,393 4,989 8.1% actual less than projectedBIO PED 1,132 807 40.3% actual less than projectedBIO SRG 304 328 -7.4% actual greater than projected

Total 33,659 31,317 7.5% actual less than projectedBUS ACC 3,741 3,204 16.8% actual less than projectedBUS AOS (BSS) 4,382 3,820 14.7% actual less than projectedBUS BUS 6,140 6,078 1.0% actual less than projectedBUS CIS 7,096 5,723 24.0% actual less than projectedBUS FSM 1,079 1,327 -18.7% actual greater than projected

Total 22,439 20,152 11.3% actual less than projectedCOM ARA 58 120 -51.9% actual greater than projectedCOM ART 5,365 5,178 3.6% actual less than projectedCOM CHI 222 236 -5.7% actual greater than projectedCOM COM 1,449 1,144 26.7% actual less than projectedCOM CSS 306 99 209.0% actual less than projectedCOM DNC 1,069 840 27.3% actual less than projectedCOM ELI NA 1,602 NA NACOM ENG 23,824 21,312 11.8% actual less than projectedCOM FRN 564 603 -6.4% actual greater than projectedCOM GER 379 248 52.8% actual less than projectedCOM HUM 6,183 5,448 13.5% actual less than projectedCOM ITL 264 196 34.5% actual less than projectedCOM JPN 531 420 26.5% actual less than projectedCOM LAS 0 NA N/A actual less than projectedCOM LTA (LMT) 248 248 0.1% actual less than projectedCOM MUS 2,361 2,131 10.8% actual less than projectedCOM PHI 7,304 6,975 4.7% actual less than projectedCOM RUS 194 256 -24.4% actual greater than projectedCOM SPA 4,121 4,336 -5.0% actual greater than projectedCOM SPE (CMM) 8,014 7,662 4.6% actual less than projectedCOM THE 736 641 14.9% actual less than projected


Revised Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY05Table 14

By Department

27

Division Department

Projected Credit

Hours FY05

Actual Credit Hours

FY05 Variance Description of Variance

Revised Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY05Table 14

By Department

EMPS ABR 809 507 59.6% actual less than projectedEMPS ARC 433 357 21.2% actual less than projectedEMPS AST 241 260 -7.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS AUT 3,675 3,681 -0.2% actual greater than projectedEMPS BCT 534 507 5.4% actual less than projectedEMPS CAD 1,138 1,198 -5.0% actual greater than projectedEMPS CIV 142 135 5.3% actual less than projectedEMPS CNA 908 873 4.1% actual less than projectedEMPS CNC 285 234 21.9% actual less than projectedEMPS DFT 103 120 -14.2% actual greater than projectedEMPS EGR 420 441 -4.8% actual greater than projectedEMPS EIT 191 315 -39.5% actual greater than projectedEMPS ELC 285 199 43.2% actual less than projectedEMPS ELT 1,012 797 27.0% actual less than projectedEMPS FLU N/A NA NA Not applicable.EMPS GEO 2,510 2,680 -6.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS IS 30 14 114.3% actual less than projectedEMPS IMR 238 255 -6.7% actual greater than projectedEMPS MCD 167 147 13.6% actual less than projectedEMPS MCS 216 331 -34.7% actual greater than projectedEMPS MFG 0 NA 0.0% Not applicable.EMPS MTH 25,302 23,335 8.4% actual less than projectedEMPS MTT 256 357 -28.2% actual greater than projectedEMPS PHY 2,096 1904 10.1% actual less than projectedEMPS RAC 2,105 1970 6.8% actual less than projectedEMPS WLD 388 425 -8.7% actual greater than projectedEMPS WWW 185 47 294.5% actual less than projected

Total 43,671 41,089 6.3% actual less than projectedSD PDS 562 349 61.1% actual less than projectedSD EWE 484 448 8.0% actual less than projected

Total 1,046 797 31.2% actual less than projectedSOC ANT 2,104 1,866 12.7% actual less than projectedSOC CRJ 4,462 4,578 -2.5% actual greater than projectedSOC ECE 1,514 1,578 -4.0% actual greater than projectedSOC ECO 3,974 3,750 6.0% actual less than projectedSOC EDM N/A 138 N/A N/ASOC EDU 1,620 1,800 -10.0% actual greater than projectedSOC FST 408 486 -16.1% actual greater than projectedSOC GEG 1,985 1,941 2.3% actual less than projectedSOC HST 6,669 6,738 -1.0% actual greater than projectedSOC HUS 1,067 649 64.4% actual less than projectedSOC HUX NA 660 N/A N/ASOC PSC 2,599 2,652 -2.0% actual greater than projectedSOC PSY 11,851 11,391 4.0% actual less than projectedSOC SOC 6,780 6,690 1.3% actual less than projectedSOC SSI 0 1 -100.0% actual greater than projectedSOC SST 290 126 130.5% actual less than projectedSOC SWK 198 267 -25.8% actual greater than projected


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Part III Data and Methodology

Data and Methodology Data for mid-term credit hours were used to project enrollment in the next three fiscal years. The mid-term credit hours were derived from course-level data on total number of students enrolled and the course credit hours. Course-level data came from the Course Section Enrollment (S3) files submitted to the Illinois Community College Board for each fiscal year. The method used in this projection was an eight-year moving average of annual percent changes. Annual percent changes (APC) were calculated for the last eight years (FY98-FY05). These were then averaged to predict FY06 enrollment; thereafter, the last eight years APCs—including the forecast year’s APC—were averaged to predict enrollment in the two remaining forecast years. Projected years 2007 and 2008, therefore, incorporated the last eight years’ increases including the last year’s projected increase. After carefully analyzing the data, the 8-year moving average methodology was used for the projections for two reasons: 1) it yielded more conservative annual percentage growths and declines; and 2) it accounted for the cyclical trends in many programs that can be observed in the past eight years. To minimize the risks of over-projecting and under-projecting, percent increases higher than 2.3% were capped at 2.3% and those lower than –3.8% were capped at –3.8%. An extra step of ensuring that the projections for FY06 are reasonable was taken to account for the decline of 3.1% in FY05 and the available Summer 2005 and Fall 2005 college level enrollment data. The growth rate for each department was further cut by 0.75% to avoid over-projection after a year of decline. For programs with less than eight years, the percent changes between the available years were averaged. If a program only existed for one year, the last FY enrollment was carried over for the projected three years. Deans’ Review The dean of each of the major divisions reviewed the preliminary projections for departments in their area and made revisions they believed appropriate. This mathematical model assumes that if everything else is constant, then enrollment will continue along current trend lines. For the FY06-08 projections, however, the deans revised many of the department level projections upwards with their own rationale. Revisions by the deans considered certain factors that can influence change or limit enrollment. Deans were asked to revise projections where they knew of planned changes that the model would not predict (e.g., new funding, new programs, new promotional

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efforts, revised scheduling, program elimination, etc.).2 In certain cases, these planned changes resulted in more than the maximum 2.3% annual increase capped by the methodology. Deans also were aware of changes in demand for their programs due to changing local job market conditions. Lastly, deans can revise the projections where they know that there are facility, faculty, equipment, and other constraints. Hence, in certain cases, some departments can have projections subject to supply constraints.

2 The deans of the Adult Education, Biology, Communication Arts, Social Science, and Counseling Divisions submitted revisions.

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Documents

Enrollment Projectionsdept.clcillinois.edu/web/aqip/2003/pdf/support/enrollProject_06-08.pdfcredit hours in FY06 are in English (+203), Communication (+172), and Humanities (+163)