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An initiative of
Energy and Climate Securitygy yfor a World of 10 Billion People
Dr. Gerhard Knies ,Dr. Oliver Steinmetz & Mouldi Miled
DESERTEC Foundation
Alexandrie 31 mars 2010
An initiative of
Agenda g
- The Context
– The Concept
– From Concept to Organisation
DESERTEC Foundation• DESERTEC Foundation
• DESERTEC’s Industrial Initiative
Luxembourg 20100118
An initiative of
Strategic Objectivesg j
E d Cli tEnergy and Climate Security for a World of 10Security for a World of 10 Billion People
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An initiative of
Climate Change is changing living conditions on Earthg
CC is REALCC can get OUT OF CONTROLE: Δ T < 2° a must
CC i MAN MADE h did it ? ( k hi !)CC is FAST: 25 years left for T < 2°CC can get OUT OF CONTROLE: Δ T < 2 a must
CC is MAN-MADE: who did it ? (we know him !)Continued CC is CRASH for humankind: stop it !
DESERTEC: Clean Power from Deserts for a sustainable
Stop it ! -- Who ? How ?
DESERTEC: Clean Power from Deserts for a sustainable world with10 billion people
is a promising approach to stop CC in due time
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An initiative of
World-Population 1800-2100 & Earth‘s carrying cap. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-Population-1800-2100.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World Population 1800 2100.png
NOW
10 bn
Earth Carrying capacity: 5 bn
NOW
Earth Carrying capacity: 5 bn5 bn
3 bn
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An initiative of
Clean energy – key to Humankind Security stability issues for an Earth with 10 billion people
Limit POPULATIONto 10 bn people
stability issues for an Earth with 10 billion people
to 10 bn people
more WATERdesalination
i
more Civilization& wealth per cap reprocessing& wealth per cap
Clean and sufficient energy/power
can give for 10 bn people
more FOODIrrigation, fertilizer
distribution
Global and inter-generational
justice
can give for 10 bn people ecological and social
stability
ClimateBio
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stability
6
Diversity
An initiative of
Power demand & supply scenario (TWh/y)in MENA and EU
MENA: Transition Mix 2000-20503500
4000
4500
DesalinationE t S l3500
4000
4500
DesalinationE t S l
including export to Europe and power
for water desalination
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Elec
trici
ty [T
Wh/
y]
Export SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil / Gas
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Elec
trici
ty [T
Wh/
y]
Export SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil / Gas
+600%
+600%
0
500
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
CoalNuclear
0
500
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
CoalNuclear
mpo
rt!
Source: DLR studies
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
y [T
Wh/
y]
Import SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomass2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
y [T
Wh/
y]
Import SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomass
EU: By clean power from deserts EU may gain
10-15 years in the fight against climate
change, by importing 17% from MENA
I
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Elec
trici
ty Wave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Elec
trici
ty Wave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear
g , y p g
Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable
energies, nuclear energy can be phased out
completely, and oil, gas and coal largely.
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
An initiative of
Potential of Renewable Energies in EU-MENAg
Potential for electricity production in TWh/a
Biomass Geothermal Solar
1.350 TWh/a 1.100 TWh/a 630.000 TWh/a
1.950 TWh/a 1.350 TWh/a
DESERTS: 6 hours sun shine = world energy demand 1 yearDESERTS: 6 hours sun shine = world energy demand 1 year
Max
Wind Hydro Min
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An initiative of
How much power will be needed by 10 billion people?p
1 2 3 41. 2050 average power per person and year
5 MWh/y
2.2050 electro mobility per person and year
1 MWh/y
3. World population 2050:9 - 10 billion people
60 000 TWh/y
4.2500 solar hours per/y:
12 000 5 MWh/yData 2006World 3.1OECD 8.6USA 12.2
1 MWh/y
km/person: 10,000
Germany 2007: 13,000
person/car 2
60,000 TWh/y(+/- 20%)
2009: 18,000 TWh/y
in 2050: 50% as solar
12,000
solar GigaWatt
collectors
globallyIndia 0.9Germany 6.4
Electr./100km: 20kWh in 2050: 50% as solarpower from DESERTS
DESERTEC for30,000 TWh/y
globally
35 years, 1GW/day
30,000 TWh/y(+/- 20%)
Saving the planet will become largest business case of the decades ahead of us
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An initiative of
DESERTEC Concept for EU-MENA1/7th of world 1,400 GW solar collector capacity/ , p y
Studies by DLR forEUMENA regionEUMENA region- MED-CSP- TRANS-CSPfor German gov‘t
CLUB OF ROMEWhite Paper 2009www.desertec.org
Sk t h f ibl i f t t f t i bl l f
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Sketch of a possible infrastructure for a sustainable supply of powerto Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (EU-MENA)
An initiative of
12,000 solar GigaWatt from DesertsPowerhouse desert for the world
+ HVDC super grid to a World with 10 billion People
3000 km
Within 3000 km from deserts:
To more than 90% of world pop clean power from deserts available
3000 km
10% loss
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clean power from deserts available.
11
An initiative of
Social Consequencesq
The wealth, well-being and peace of our partner countries in and near desert regions depends oncountries in and near desert regions depends on
– Access to energyDESERTEC power
– Access to waterDESERTEC desalination
• Conflicts, e.g. Jordan river:Israel / Palestine / Gaza …
– Access to foodAccess to foodeven in currently arid regions?!
– Birth rates are
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inversely proportional to wealth!
An initiative of
A sustainable energy system for a world population of 10 billion is feasible
7 it i f l b l l ti
There are many clean and renewable sources: Solar (PV and CSP), wind, waves, tidal, hydro, biomass, geothermal,…
7 criteria for a global solution:1. climate security2. enough for 10 billion people,3. accessible to >90% of world pop.p p4. long term source security5. sufficiently fast deployable (1GW/day):6. cost stability7 available by demand7. available by demand
There is to my knowledge only 1 such source complying with all 7 criteria:
Solar power from deserts generated by CSTP So a po e o dese ts ge e ated by CS
because of
• heat storage for day+night operation,
• best global availability
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An initiative of
Concentrating solar collector technologies: basic layout schemes
Absorber Tube
Absorber tube andreconcentrator
CurvedmirrorAbsorber
TubeAbsorber tube andreconcentrator
Curvedmirror
Pipe with thermal fluid
Curved mirror
Pipe with thermal fluid
Curved mirror
thermal fluid
Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel
thermal fluid
Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel
Linear Concentrationconc: 100, T: ~ 500° C
Solar Receiver
Receiver / Engine
Reflector
Solar ReceiverSolar Receiver
Receiver / Engine
Reflector
Receiver / Engine
Reflector
C
H li t tH li t tH li t t
Point Concentrationconc: 1000+, T: ~ 1000° C
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Heliostats
Central ReceiverDish/EngineHeliostatsHeliostats
Central ReceiverDish/Engine
An initiative of
Parabolic trough collectorsKramer Junction USA, 1990J US , 990
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An initiative of
Andasol 1: Andalusia, Spain, operating since 2009 molten salt heat storage = solar power day+night
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An initiative ofCost for CSP power plants + EU-MENA Supergridfor 15% of EU consumption
20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Transfer Capacity GW
2050204020302020Year
20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Transfer Capacity GW
2050204020302020Year
0 800 750 670 60Capacity Factor
70047023060Electricity Transfer TWh/y
20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Transfer Capacity GW
0 800 750 670 60Capacity Factor
70047023060Electricity Transfer TWh/y
20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Transfer Capacity GW
0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor
50 x 5040 x 4030 x 3015 x 15Land Area CSP
352412.53.8Turnover Billion €/y
0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor
50 x 5040 x 4030 x 3015 x 15Land Area CSP
352412.53.8Turnover Billion €/y
35024514342Investment CSP
50 x 503600 x 1.0
40 x 403600 x 0.7
30 x 303600 x 0.4
15 x 153100 x 0.1
Land Area CSPkm x km HVDC
35024514342Investment CSP
50 x 503600 x 1.0
40 x 403600 x 0.7
30 x 303600 x 0.4
15 x 153100 x 0.1
Land Area CSPkm x km HVDC
Power plants
4531205Billion € HVDC0.0400.010
0.0400.010
0.0450.010
0.0500.014
Elec. Cost CSP€/kWh HVDC
4531205Billion € HVDC0.0400.010
0.0400.010
0.0450.010
0.0500.014
Elec. Cost CSP€/kWh HVDC
grid
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0 0 00 0 00 0 00 0€/ C 0 0 00 0 00 0 00 0€/ C
17
An initiative of
Where is the energy/climate problem ?
ResourcesResourcesEnergy resource DESERT : over-abundantCapital: existing Initial DELTA-Financing to be solved
TechnologiesS l h (CS ) kSolar techno (CSP): workingHeat storage techno: workingWind techno workinggHVDC transmission techno.: workingDesalination techno working
Implementation
1 GW CSP collector per day feasible
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An initiative of
DESERTEC –from Concept to Organisation
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An initiative of
DESERTEC Foundation
Non-profit foundation, founded 2008 in BerlinNon profit foundation, founded 2008 in Berlin
Objectives– „Roadblock Remover“ for clean energy from deserts
Worldwide lobbying for favourable political & financial conditions• Worldwide lobbying for favourable political & financial conditions• Defending environmental and social standards• Building alliances, mobilise partners, drive pilot projects• Spreading know-how, promoting best practices• Co-ordinating activities around the Globe• Helping countries learn from each other
Founders– Private persons from the worldwide TREC network
• from their own money– Additional Co-Founders, Sponsors, Partners welcome
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An initiative of
DESERTEC Foundation Objectivesj
ConceptFeasibility studies to answer per country! the questions– Feasibility studies to answer – per country! - the questions
• What for? What? How? When?
Acceptance “on the ground”p g– Inform / “infect” (seminars, Conferences …)
– Involve: Politics, Business, Academic, Civil Society
– Realise projects & pilot projects
Achieve willingness / Buy-in– To invest: Incentives, Partnerships
– (De)regulation
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– Finance
An initiative of
DESERTEC’s Industrial Initiative (DII)
Project company DII GmbH, founded October 30th
2009
( )
2009
Shareholders
– Currently screening additional shareholders and partners,preferably from additional countries
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An initiative of
DII Objectivesj
In 3 years 2010-2012f f bl l d l l– Creation a of favourable regulatory and legislative
environment
– Development of a roll-out plan p p
– Proposal of concrete reference projects
– Additional or more detailed studies, where needed (e.g. on , ( gfeasibility)
Pilot projects already during these 3 years
Fostering local / regional development!
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An initiative of
How to implement ?3 Phases for a DESERTEC roll-out programmeg
DESERTEC GLOBAL DEPLOYMENT PLANA rough implementation scheme:
Phase 1 6 years HIGH SPEED MARKET INTRODUCTION 20 GW2010 -2015 policy driven
external financial support :external financial support :
Phase 2 20 years COLLECTOR PRODUCTION SCALE UP2016– 2035, market driven
3 500 GW/year: +30% p.a., duplication in 2.5 years
Phase 3 25 years HIGH SPEED DEPLOYMENT2025 – 2050 market driven2025 2050, market driven
average 1.2 GW-coll/day, investment ca. 3 bn €/day
Fast completion of phase 1 = key to success !
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Main task for DESERTEC Foundation
An initiative of
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
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