Energy trends & the Goverment roleivres.ivedc.com/media/managed/Dinner_Keynote... · (LSPEE) Challenges V . [email protected] Thank you - Common ground - Conciliate / Nationalism

Héctor Castro Vizcarra

Non-Resident Senior Fellow,

Energy, Climate Change & Extractive Industries Program

Energy trends & the

Goverment role

[email protected]

@castrovhector

Global Perspectives

I

• Global renewable energy is expected to

grow by 43% (920 GW) to 2022. IEA/World Energy Outlook 2017

• Global energy system will continue to be dominated by

fossil fuels (90%) of the total energy supply by 2030. Oil

will remain the main source of energy (34%), followed by

coal (28%). IEA/World Energy Outlook 2017

• World oil production will increase around 65%.

120 million barrels/day in 2030.

3/4 of the increase will correspond to OPEC

countries. IEA/World Energy Outlook 2017

• 2/3 of the new global Net Power Capacity

come from renewable energy sources. IEA/World Energy Outlook 2017

• China (21.2 GW) and India (2.2 GW) are leading in

in Wind On-shore in 2018. An increase of 76.5%

(145 GW) of new capacity for 2023 is expected in Asia

and the Pacific. GWEC/Global Wind Energy Council

• In 2017, US installed 10.6 GW of Solar

Photovoltaic capacity, with a growth trend

of 15 GW for 2023. An increase of 29% IEA/World Energy Outlook 2017

• 60% of the world's annual manufacturing

of photovoltaic cells comes from China. EnergyTrend PV/ Solar Energy 2017

World electricity generation by technology in the New Policies Scenario

(2000 - 2040).

Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database (2017).

Of every dollar invested in the world energy sector, US$ 0.60 goes to

renewable sources.

Technology & Innovation

II

There is a close relationship between technological development and innovation

that is associated with the use of resources for the

generation of energy.

Technological improvements that increase capacity factors and reduce

generation/investment costs.

• A measure that the semiconductor industry evolved due to the associated

research in materials engineering the development of photovoltaic cells had

a boost.

• Cost US$ 96-75 per watt for Solar Photovoltaic.

• First panels used cells 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) in diameter.

1980’s

1990’s • Polysilicon cells became increasingly popular; generally used 125 mm wafers.

2000’s • Introduction of flat screen televisions in led to the wide availability of large, High-Quality glass sheets to cover the panels.

1970’s

• Poly cell was dominant in the low-cost panel market.

• All new panels use 156 mm cells, which increases their efficiency.

2010’s • Crystalline silicon panels dominate worldwide markets and are mostly manufactured in China.

• Current cells use 8–9 grams (0.28–0.32 oz) of silicon per watt of power

generation, with wafer thicknesses in of 200 microns.

2020-? • It's projected cost US$ 60-24 cent per watt for this year.

Photovoltaic innovation

Source: EnergyTrend PV/ Solar Energy 2017

Battle of Costs

III

Regional weighted average levelized cost of electricity by renewable power generation technology,

(2016 – 2017)


Open Energy Information

Generation cost by type of technology (US$/kWh) x year (1995 to 2017).

Global levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale renewable power generation technologies,

(2010-2017)


Yesterday & Tomorrow

IV

Brazil: Effective progress

Population: 208 Million

2.7% 7º

Electricity consumption: 520 TWh

Consumption per capita (MWh/hab): ↓ 2.6 < ~3

8º

Energy Intensity (TPES/GDPº): ↓ 4.13 < ↑ 5.13

º PPA USD (2011)

IEA/ World Energy Balances 2018 (Brazil: Key indicators for 2017)

12,634 Mbbl – Total Oil Reserves

13 Tcf – Total Natural Gas Reserves

6,596 Mt – Total Coal Reserves

Renewable and Conventional Resources

OLADE / Yearbook of Energy Statistics - Brazil (2017)

EIA / U.S. Energy Information Administration (2018)

Brazil has the largest capacity for water

storage in the world and is heavily

dependent on hydropower generation, which

accounted for 12% of the installed capacity

in 2017.

Wind energy represents 7.7% of electricity

generation.

15º

32º

14º

Public policy & Energy goals

IEA/ IRENA Joint Policies and Measure Database (2018)

2002 | Programme of Incentives for Alternative Electricity Sources

33% of renewable sources to 2030 (except hydro).

1997

Oil Investment Law (NCEP & NAP)

Public Utility

1990’s

Open

Market

(Oil & Energy)

2007 | Brazil Renewable Energy Auctions

2013 | Brazil Inova Energia Program

China: Influence of change

Population: 1,379 Million

18.1% 1º


Consumption per capita (MWh/hab): ↑3.9 < ~3

1º

Energy Intensity (TPES/GDPº): ↑6.69 < ↑ 5.13

º PPA USD (2011)

IEA/ World Energy Balances 2018 (China: Key indicators for 2017)






In 2017, it installed photovoltaic power

plants with a capacity of 53 GW, more than

half of the world capacity.

60% of the world's annual manufacturing

of photovoltaic cells comes

from China.

13º

9º

3º

2016 |


2009 | Renewable Energy Law (2006) Amendments

2012 | China Energy White Paper 2012

13th Energy Technology Innovation Five Year Plan (2016-2020)

35% Of renewables sources to 2030.


1970’s Market

Control

Oil

Coal

Gas National Energy Commission (NEC)

1998

Public Utility

Germany: Objective transition


1.1% 17º


Consumption per capita (MWh/hab): ↑7.0 < ~3

7º

Energy Intensity (TPES/GDPº): ↓3.60 < ↑ 5.13

º PPA USD (2011)

IEA/ World Energy Balances 2018 (Germany: Key indicators for 2017)

130 Mbbl – Total Oil Reserves

1.4 Tcf – Total Natural Gas Reserves




In 2017, 36.1% of electricity in Germany was

generated from renewable energy.

Outstanding resources are the Wind On-shore

with 12.6%, Biomass 10.1% and

Solar photovoltaic 6.2%.

64º

63º

6º


2010 |

Law on Energy and Climate Fund 2011 |

2017 | Amendment of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG 2017)

of renewable sources to 2030 50%

Energy Transition Plan (Energiekonzept)


1998

Opening Energy Market Law

1990’s Open

Market

(Energy)

Public Utilities

º PPA USD (2011)

IEA/ World Energy Balances 2018 (US: Key indicators for 2017)

US: Stability model


4.2% 3º

Electricity consumption: 4,148 TWh

Consumption per capita (MWh/hab):↑12.9 < ~3

2º

Energy Intensity (TPES/GDPº): ↑5.40 < ↑ 5.13






In 2017, the share of renewable energies

represented about 11.3%.

Hydropower, wind and solar, are the most

developed resources in recent years.

11º

3º

1º


Regional electricity generation by technology

(2000 - 2040).

China

US

European Union

South America

º PPA USD (2011)

IEA/ World Energy Balances 2018 (US: Key indicators for 2017)

Mexico: New paradigm


1.6% 10º


Consumption per capita (MWh/hab): ↓2.30 < ~3

10º

Energy Intensity (TPES/GDPº): ↓3.73 < ↑ 5.13

OLADE / Yearbook of Energy Statistics – Mexico (2017)






The value of the sale per megawatt-hour

(MWh) for Solar photovoltaic decreased from

US$ 47.78 in 2015 to US$ 20.57 in 2017.

For this year (2017), generation prices for this

technology reached the lowest prices

worldwide.

19º

34º

25º

1938


General Law of Climate Change 2012 |

2013 | Energy Reform (Oil & Electricity)

Special Program for the Use of Renewable Energy 2014 |

of clean energy to 2024.. 35%


Private Utilities

Petroleum

Expropriation

1890’s

1992

Open

Market

(Energy)

Public Electricity Service Law

(LSPEE)

Challenges

V

[email protected]

Thank you

- Common ground

- Conciliate / Nationalism

- Constructive path

- Competition / Private investment (Rescue of Sovereignty)

- Energy trends are not decided by a political ideology

Documents

Energy trends & the Goverment roleivres.ivedc.com/media/managed/Dinner_Keynote... · (LSPEE) Challenges V . [email protected] Thank you - Common ground - Conciliate / Nationalism